IDSA COMMENT

A Year-end Security Review of Southern Asia

Gurmeet Kanwal
December 31, 2013 The year gone by saw both China and Pakistan become militarily more asserti e on !ndia"s borders than e er be#ore in the last decade$ %hile China launched a ma&or incursion into the D'( sector o# )adakh and took se eral weeks to take the P)* troo+s back across the )*C, Pakistan re+eatedly iolated the cease,#ire agreement and once again ste++ed u+ in#iltration o# terrorists across the )oC to launch strikes in Kashmir a#ter lying low #or se eral years$ To++ing the charts o# the unstable regional security en ironment in -outhern *sia is *#ghanistan"s endless con#lict$ The +resent situation can be characterised as a stalemate at the strategic and the tactical le els$ This will continue with the Taliban and the *#ghan, .*T(,!-*/ #orces alternately gaining local ascendancy #or short durations in the core +ro inces o# 0elmand, 1ar&a and Kandahar$ The *#ghan .ational *rmy is still many years away #rom achie ing the +ro#essional standards necessary to manage security on its own$ !t will, there#ore, be di##icult #or the .*T(,!-*/ #orces to conduct a res+onsible drawdown o# troo+s in 2012$ The 3- #orces are likely to continue to launch drone strikes in Pakistan against e4tremists sheltering in the Khyber,Pakhtoonkhwa and /*T* areas des+ite the ad erse di+lomatic #allout$ * gradual dri#t into ci il war a++ears to be the most likely outcome$ Pakistan"s hal#,hearted struggle against the remnants o# the al 5aeda and the home grown Taliban like the TTP and the T.-1, #issi+arous tendencies in 'aluchistan, continuing radical e4tremism and cree+ing Talibanisation in the heartland, the tentati e counter, terrorism ste+s o# the new ci ilian go ernment, the #loundering economy and, conse6uently, the nation"s gradual slide towards becoming a 7#ailed state", +ose a ma&or security challenge #or the region$ 3nless the Pakistan army gi es u+ its idiosyncratic notions o# seeking strategic de+th in *#ghanistan and #uelling terrorism in !ndia and concentrates

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instead on #ighting all arieties o# Taliban that are threatening the cohesion o# the state, the e entual break,u+ o# Pakistan may be ine itable$ -ri )anka"s inability to #ind a lasting solution to its ethnic +roblems des+ite the com+rehensi e de#eat o# the )iberation Tigers o# Tamil 8elam has serious re+ercussions #or stability in the island nation$ Des+ite the election o# a ci ilian go ernment, the gradual resurgence o# the )TT8 remains likely as the core issue o# autonomy has not been addressed$ The rising tide o# !slamist #undamentalist terrorism in 'angladesh, e en as it struggles #or economic u+li#tment to subsistence le els, could trigger new #orces o# destruction i# le#t unchecked$ 1uch will de+end on which +arty emerges as the largest a#ter the elections scheduled in 9anuary 2012$ The 1aoist ascendancy in .e+al and its ad erse im+act on .e+al"s #ledgling democracy, as also .e+al"s new#ound inclination to seek neutrality between !ndia and China, are a blow to what has historically been a stable !ndia,.e+al relationshi+$ -immering discontentment is gathering momentum in Tibet and :in&iang against China"s re+ressi e regime and could result in an o+en re olt$ The +eo+les" nascent mo ement #or democracy in 1yanmar and se eral long #estering insurgencies may destabilise the military 9unta des+ite its +ost, election con#idence$ The mo ement #or democracy could turn iolent i# the ruling 9unta continues to deny its citi;ens basic human rights$ The s+illo er o# religious e4tremism and terrorism #rom *#ghanistan and +olitical instability in the C*<s are undermining de elo+ment and go ernance$ (ther negati e #actors im+acting regional stability in -outhern *sia include the unchecked +roli#eration o# small arms, being nurtured and encouraged by large,scale narcotics tra##icking and its ne4us with radical e4tremism$ !ndia"s internal security en ironment has been itiated by Pakistan"s two,decade old +ro4y war in 9ammu and Kashmir, continuing insurgency in se eral o# !ndia"s north,eastern states, the unchecked rise o# 1aoist or .a4alite =le#t wing> e4tremism in Central !ndia and the new wa e o# urban terrorism, which +eaked with the dastardly attacks in 1umbai on .o ember 2?, 200@$ During 2013, there was little im+ro ement in the state o# internal con#licts$ !n #act, the 1aoists are gradually establishing their ability to strike at will at a +oint and time o# their choosing$ The security #orces continue to lose men, arms and ammunition in these strikes$

Source: http://idsa.in/idsacomments/SecurityReviewofSouthernAsia_gkanwal_311 13

Though the central go ernment"s cease,#ire with the .agas has now held #or o er a decade e en while internecine 6uarrels among the .agas ha e continued unabated, +rogress in negotiations with both the !ssak,1ui ah and the Kha+lang #actions o# the .-C. has been rather limited$ The 3)/* in *ssam has begun negotiations with the central go ernment without any +re,conditions e4ce+t #or the break,away military wing led by Paresh 'arua, who is said to be taking shelter in 1yanmar and is getting co ert su++ort #rom the Chinese$ 'esides Central and -tate go ernment +aramilitary and +olice #orces, the !ndian army has been de+loyed in large numbers to gain control o er internal u+risings, most o# which are su++orted, s+onsored and militarily aided by inimical #oreign +owers, es+ecially the Pakistan army and !-!$ 0owe er, !ndia"s #ight,back is ha+ha;ard and lacks coherence, both in the #ormulation o# a com+rehensi e internal security strategy and its success#ul e4ecution$ The ac6uisition and dissemination o# intelligence #or +re enting terrorist strikes are also +atently #lawed$ !ndia"s standing as a regional +ower that has global +ower ambitions and as+ires to a +ermanent seat on the 3. -ecurity Council has been seriously com+romised by its inability to success#ully manage ongoing internal con#licts and e4ternal con#licts in its neighbourhood, singly or in concert with its strategic +artners$ !n #act, the situation in *#ghanistan and Pakistan could deteriorate beyond the ability o# the international community to control$ These con#licts are undermining -outhern *sia"s e##orts towards socio,economic de elo+ment and +o erty alle iation by ham+ering go ernance and itiating the in estment climate$ %ith a history o# #our con#licts in ?0 years and three nuclear,armed ad ersaries continuing to #ace o##, -outhern *sia has been described as a nuclear #lash+oint$ !t a++ears ine itable that in 2012 the -outhern *sian region and its e4tended neighbourhood will see a continuation o# ongoing con#licts without ma&or let u+ and also #ace the +ossibility o# new con#lagrations$

Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA or of the Government of India.

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