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Philippine Real Estate Market 3Q 2012
Philippine Real Estate Market 3Q 2012
Executive Summary
ECONOMY
The Philippine economy posted a growth of 5.9% in 2Q 2012. The services sector was the main contributor, accounting for 4.3 percentage points of the total GDP growth. Meanwhile, remittances from OFWs reached US$13.7 billion as of YTD August (+5.4%). This has consistently fuelled domestic consumption backed by benign inflation and low mortgage lending rates of 5% to 8%. Driven by the 6.1% growth in the first half of this year, analysts forecasts were recently upgraded to range between 5.0% and 5.5% for the year.
In the next two years, Metro Manila office stock will exceed the seven million sq m mark as developers anticipate sustained demand from the O&O industry. Particularly, new supply is expected to be at over 500,000 sq m in 2013, an increase of 28% YoY and a new historical high. Meanwhile in the Makati CBD, total office stock increased to over 2.75 million following the completion of Zuellig Building (57,000 sq m).
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET INDICATORS
OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL
In the first nine months of 2012, new supply of high-rise residential condominiums in the five sub-markets tracked by Colliers reached almost 5,000 units. Majority of these are located in Fort Bonifacio. In the Makati CBD, the stock is unchanged at 15,513 units since March of this year. Other upcoming completions include Raffles Residences (237 units), Greenbelt Madison (276 units), and The Grand Midori Tower 1 (279 units). Both the Makati CBD and Fort Bonifacio will have the strongest supply pipeline in the next two years.
RETAIL
In the first nine months of this year, Metro Manila new retail supply reached over 60,000 sq m. This is owed to the completion of Magnolia Town Center in Quezon City and the partial relaunch of Glorietta 1 and 2 in Ayala Center. There are roughly 400,000 sq m of super-regional, 150,000 sq m of regional and some 100,000 sq m of district and neighborhood malls currently in the pipeline. In the long term, retail developments will consistently expand across the untapped geographic markets in Metro Manila, around BPO and commercial centers, and within the masterplanned communities.
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ECONOMIC INDICATORSa
2007
Gross National Product (%) Gross Domestic Product (%) Personal Consumption Expenditure (%) Govt Expenditure (%) Capital Formation (%) Exports (%) Imports (%) AHFFb (%) Industry (%) Services (%) Average Inflationc (%) Budget Deficit (Billion Pesos) P:US$ (Average) Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates (%)
a At constant 2000 price b Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing c at constant 2006 prices 6.10 6.60 4.4 6.90 -0.50 6.70 1.70 4.70 5.80 7.60 2.9 (P12.4) P46.1 3.40
2008
6.00 4.20 4.2 0.30 23.40 -2.70 1.60 3.20 4.80 4.00 8.3 (P68.1) P44.7 5.20
2009
6.50 1.10 4.6 10.90 -8.70 -7.80 -8.10 -0.70 -1.90 3.40 4.1 (P298.5) P47.6 4.00
2010
8.40 7.60 3.7 4.00 31.60 21.00 22.50 -0.20 11.60 7.20 3.9 (P314.4) P45.10 3.70
2011
3.20 3.90 2.3 1.00 8.10 -4.20 0.20 2.70 2.30 5.10 4.6 (P197.7) P43.31 1.37
1Q12
5.80 6.40 3.4 24.00 -23.50 7.90 -2.60 1.00 4.90 8.50 3.1 (P33.9) P43.30 1.88
2Q12
5.60 5.90 6.10 5.90 2.30 8.30 4.40 0.70 4.60 7.60 2.90 (P573.0) P42.80 2.33
ECONOMY
The Philippine economy posted a growth of 5.9% in 2Q 2012. Regionally, the countrys economic growth outperformed that of Malaysia (+5.4%), Vietnam (+4.4%), and Singapore (+4.2%), and came in third after China (+7.8%) and Indonesia (+6.4%). The services sector was the main contributor, accounting for 4.3 percentage points of the total GDP growth. It grew by 7.6% in the second quarter which has been attributed to the development of the following subsectors: Real Estate (+19%), Renting and Business Activities (+9.8%) and Ownership of Dwellings (+2.1%). Similarly, government spending on infrastructure facilitated this growth as it increased by 45.7%. Meanwhile, remittances from OFWs reached US$13.7 YTD August (+5.4%). This has consistently fuelled domestic consumption backed by benign inflation and low mortgage lending rates of 5% to 8%. Other supporting fundamentals in the second quarter include employment (+2.8%), and tourist arrivals (+7.0%). Driven by the 6.1% growth in the first half of this year, analysts forecasts were recently upgraded to range between 5.0% and 5.5% (previously 4.5% and 5.0%) by year-end, well within the governments target of 5.0% - 6.0%.
OFW Remittances
25,000 20,000
In Million US Dollars
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
2012
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LAND VALUES
Implied land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 1.5% in the third quarter to average at PHP289,100 per sq m. This translates to an accommodation value of PHP18,069 per sq m. In Ortigas, land values have been consistently appreciating at a modest rate, currently 1.0% this quarter, with the average land value pegged at PHP132,000 per sq m. In BGC, land values sustained double-digit growth on an annual basis, resulting in an average accommodation value of PHP23,500. The forecast for both Makati and BGC land values are seen to increase between 8% and 9% by the third quarter next year.
Makati CBD
BGC
Ortigas Ctr
COMPARATIVE LAND VALUES PESO / SQ M MAKATI CBD ORTIGAS CENTER BGC 3Q12 280,100 - 298,100 99,399 - 166,032 195,000 - 275,000 2Q12 272,170 - 297,100 98,434 - 164,420 155,500 - 229,647 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1.57 0.98 5.60 3Q13F 290,312 - 338,951 105,250 - 176,200 195,000 - 315,000 % CHANGE (YoY) 8.83 6.03 8.51
LICENSES TO SELL
Overall residential licenses issued by the HLURB in the first seven months of this year expanded by 24.5%. The latest figures indicate that 119,357 units were licensed as of July, up by around 76,512 units compared to the same period last year. Noticeable rises were seen in the high-rise residential (+77.2%) and low-cost housing segments (+15.9%). Meanwhile, the number of licenses in the socialized housing segment started to improve since the decline in May, however in sluggish increments, up by just 5.9%. In contrast, licenses in the middle-income horizontal housing segment depicted lingering depression which resulted in a contraction of 23.8%. The same segment has decelerated at double-digit rates since March of this year. The decline is believed to be due to an increase in vertical development positioned towards the middle income segment. In Metro Manila, over 50,000 high-rise residential licenses were issued in 2011. Roughly around 82% are in the middle-income segment. This translates to a standard contract price of PHP1.25 million to less than PHP5.0 million. In the first half of 2012, licenses remain geared towards the same segment or approximately 78% of the 37,000 units issued. The most recent of these were Arezzo Place by Phinma Properties (2,160 units), The Pearl Place by RLC (1,367 units), Amaia Skies Avenida North Tower (1,167 units), and Paseo De Roces by Federal Land (1,044 units).
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3Q13F
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3Q97
3Q98
3Q99
3Q00
3Q01
3Q02
3Q03
3Q04
3Q05
3Q06
3Q07
3Q08
3Q09
3Q10
3Q11
3Q12
JAN - JUL 2012 21,375 28,972 15,723 53,287 1,357 51 70,933 0 399 192,097
JAN - JUL 2011 20,178 24,995 20,626 30,070 460 60 99,018 30 437 195,874
% CHANGE YoY 5.9 15.9 -23.8 77.2 195.0 -15.0 -28.4 -100.0 -8.7 -1.9
HLURB Licenses
160,000 140,000 120,000
units
OFFICE SECTOR
Supply In the next two years, Metro Manila office stock will exceed the seven million sq m mark as developers anticipate sustained demand from the O&O industry. Particularly, new supply is expected to be at 500,000 sq m in 2013, an increase of 28% YoY and a new historical high. A large majority of these new office spaces are dedicated BPO facilities. Meanwhile in the Makati CBD, total office stock increased to over 2.75 million following the completion of Zuellig Building (57,000 sq m). Other projects in the pipeline are Alphaland Makati Tower (38,400 sq m), V-Tower (23,000 sq m) and the Glorietta 1 and 2 BPO buildings (27,000 sq m). Office buildings that have been likewise delivered in the third quarter are Net Lima (51,000 sq m) in Fort Bonifacio, and Aseana One (30,000 sq m) in Pasay. While developable land in the major CBDs are constrained, construction activities are expected to build-up around the fringes of Ortigas, Makati, and in other pocket developments in Pasay and Quezon City.
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200,000 100,000
2% 4%
6%
2000 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011F 2011 2012F 2012F 2013F
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000
2001
Makati CBD
OFFICE SECTOR
Demand In 3Q12, the premium vacancy rate in Makati spiked to 7.6%, from the 2.1% registered in the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to the remaining inventories in the Zuellig Building. Despite this, the overall rate was narrowed due to the drop in vacancies across Grade A and B offices, by 2.0% and 3.1%, respectively. The outlook on vacancy is that it will decrease at slightly above 3% in the next twelve months while demand gradually picks up.
2013F
0 0%
15%
in sq.m.
10%
5%
0%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
P. 5
2013F
-5%
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in sq.m.
4,000,000
MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE OFFICE VACANCY RATES (%) 3Q12 PREMIUM GRADE A GRADE B & BELOW ALL GRADES 7.62% 2.03% 3.19% 3.55% 2Q12 2.12% 3.46% 4.47% 3.99% 3.10% 3Q2013F
FORECAST OFFICE NEW SUPPLY LOCATION MAKATI CBD ORTIGAS FORT BONIFACIO EASTWOOD ALABANG OTHER LOCATIONS* TOTAL End-2011 2,699,696 1,145,350 592,272 292,819 265,552 766,369 5,762,058 2012 57,353 166,989 35,765 18,889 117,693 396,689 2013 87,837 75,127 136,884 10,040 196,483 506,371 2014 22,800 193,796 36,843 266,415 519,854 TOTAL 2,844,886 1,243,277 1,089,941 328,584 331,324 1,346,960 7,184,972
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research *Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong and Quezon City
Rents Rent in Makati CBD remains on an upward trend. Premium rental rates grew by 0.8% and exceeded the PHP900 per sq m average. This will grow by 7% in the next twelve months. Grade A and B rents rose by 0.7% and 0.5% to PHP730 and PHP500 per sq m, respectively. Both grades may increase by 5% in the next twelve months. Meanwhile, in BGC, despite the substantial supply next year, rental rates are seen to grow modestly between 3% to 4%.
COMPARATIVE OFFICE RENTAL RATES (PESOS/SQM/MONTH) MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA) 3Q12 PREMIUM GRADE A GRADE B 855-950 560-900 450-550 2Q12 840-950 550-900 465-530 % CHANGE (QoQ) 0.8 0.7 0.5 2Q 13F 8701,060 595-940 458-595 % CHANGE (YoY) 6.9 5.1 5.3
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Capital Values Currently, prices for premium units are now pegged at an average of PHP123,050 per sq m and will grow by 6.3% in the next twelve months . On a quarterly basis, capital values for both Grade A and B offices grew by 1.2% to PHP84,400 and PHP57,450 per sq m, respectively. Both grades will increase by almost 5% in the third quarter of next year.
130,000
110,000
90,000
70,000
50,000
30,000
3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13F 3Q13F
Premium
Grade A
Grade B/B-
COMPARATIVE OFFICE CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQM) MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)
3Q12 PREMIUM GRADE A GRADE B 118,000 - 128,100 71,015 - 97,794 49,298 - 65,600 2Q12 115,800 - 126,113 70,173 - 96,634 48,810 - 64,700 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1.7 1.2 1.2 3Q13F 121,200 - 133,665 73,790 - 101,380 49,810 - 67,300 % CHANGE (YoY) 3.6 3.8 1.9
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Supply In the first nine months of 2012, new supply of high-rise residential condominiums in the five sub-markets tracked by Colliers reached almost 5,000 units. Majority of these are located in Fort Bonifacio. In the third quarter however, project completions were minimal. These were Eastwood Le Grand 1 (558 units) in Eastwood City and Tuscany Private Residences (380 units) in Fort Bonifacio. In the Makati CBD, the stock is unchanged at 15,513 units since March of this year. Other upcoming completions include Raffles Residences (237 units), Greenbelt Madison (276 units), and The Grand Midori Tower 1 (279 units). Both the Makati CBD and Fort Bonifacio will have the strongest supply pipeline in the next two years. Together with the other major districts, new supply will be at 7,600 units in 2013, but will decline by 50% the following year.
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Demand Residential vacancy in the Makati CBD slightly decreased by 1.55% QoQ. Despite the limited completions in the last six months, vacancy remained at double digits, currently at 10.3%. Still, the bulk of the remaining inventories (lease and sales) consist mainly of studio and onebedroom units. In 3Q12, both Premium and Grade B vacancies were stable at below 5% and 15%, respectively. In contrast, Grade A vacancy dropped by 2.8% to 8% QoQ. In the next twelve months, besides Raffles Residences, new stock will be wholly Grade A residential condominiums. This suggests that vacancy for the same segment may increase by 4% at the most in 3Q13. On the other hand, Grade B vacancy is seen to decrease to 8% while Premium vacancy will remain stable.
2%
MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES (%) 3Q12 LUXURY OTHERS ALL GRADES 4.6 11.1 10.3 2Q12 5.0 12.8 11.8 10.1 3Q13F
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Rents Rents for luxury 3-BR condominiums have been trending upward over the last three years. Premium 3-BR rental rates in the Makati CBD grew by 15% annually and are pegged at PHP710 per sq m on average. This translates to a monthly rate of PHP177,500 for a 250 sq m unit. Premium rates for both the Makati CBD and BGC are almost the same and will improve modestly by 5% to 6% in the next twelve months due to the considerable upcoming supply. In Rockwell, where supply is limited, Premium rental rates grew 5% YoY to an average of PHP790 per sq m. This is seen to exceed PHP800 per sq m per month in the next six months.
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Makati CBD, Rockwell, Bonifacio Global City Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents
900 800
in peso per sq.m. per month
Makati CBD
Rockwell
AVERAGE 150,000 280 95,000 190 190,000 210 200,000 260 160,000 200
MAXIMUM 250,000 330 135,000 330 250,000 280 300,000 330 280,000 300
100,000 210 65,000 170 65,000 120 150,000 200 75,000 130
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COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATES (EXCLUSIVE VILLAGES) 3BR - 4BR, UNFURNISHED TO SEMI-FURNISHED LOW Forbes Park Dasmarinas Village Urdaneta Village Bel Air Village Ayala Alabang Village San Lorenzo Village 250,000 200,000 180,000 100,000 85,000 80,000 HIGH 550,000 450,000 450,000 300,000 300,000 280,000
Capital Values Capital values for premium residential condominiums in the Makati CBD and BGC are currently the same at PHP116,000 per sq m. BGC secondary prices will eventually increase by 6.7% in 3Q13 and will be closely followed by Makati by 6.2%. In Rockwell Center, rates are pegged at PHP123,695 per sq m and will increase by 5.9% in the next twelve months.
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12
1Q13F
Makati CBD
Rockwell
METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUMS COMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M)
3Q13 MAKATI CBD ROCKWELL BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 78,950-153,150 99,902-147,489 91,293-141,387 2Q12 78,936-151,922 98,913-141,816 90,658-136,746 % CHANGE (QoQ) 0.5 2.8 2.4 3Q13F 81,350-161,257 101,850-160,002 92,705-155,500 % CHANGE (YoY) 6.2 5.9 6.7
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3Q13F
60,000
RETAIL
Supply In the first nine months of this year, Metro Manila new retail supply reached over 60,000 sq m. This is owed to the completion of Magnolia Town Center in Quezon City and the partial re-launch of Glorietta 1 and 2 in Ayala Center. Despite the increase, the recently demolished Ever Grand Central (21,700 sq m) resulted in a reduction of retail stock to settle at 6.7 million sq m of leasable space. In the long term, retail developments will consistently expand across the untapped geographic markets in Metro Manila, around BPO and commercial centers, and within master-planned communities. Moreover, retail complexes are likewise anticipated to roll out in the upcoming Entertainment City in Pasay. There are roughly 400,000 sq m of super-regional, 150,000 sq m of regional and some 100,000 sq m of district and neighborhood malls currently in the pipeline. Besides shopping malls and complexes, a substantial number of superstores have also been widely introduced. These are mainly supplied by major retail chain owners such as Puregold Price Club Inc., SM Prime, and Rustans Super Centers, Inc. In Metro Manila, there are over 80 superstores at present which are estimated to amount to 420,000 sq m. This segment is expected to expand further while the amount of largescale developable land becomes limited coupled with the heightened consumer interest in this retail format.
Demand Due to tightened competition, major retail players are moved to reinvent plans and upgrade from traditional retail set-ups. On top of the numerous introductions of local and international brands, mall expansions and continuous refurbishments are progressively done to further accommodate more tenants and eventually intensify foot traffic. These on-going reconstructions have resulted in a temporary reduction in the occupancy rates. Together with the inclusion of new supply, vacancy rates on both super-regional and regional malls rose to 3.17% in the 3Q12 or an occupancy rate of 96.8% from the 98.6% in the previous quarter. Vacancy rates are expected to narrow simultaneous with the re-opening of new mall spaces towards the holiday season.
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Rents Rental rates in Ayala Center increased by 1.6% to an average of PHP1,270 per sq m. Meanwhile, rental rates in Ortigas Center marginally improved by 0.6% to about PHP1,095 per sq m. Rental rates in both districts are projected to grow by 3% - 4% in the next twelve months supported by the robust consumer spending.
4% 3%
950
3% 2% 2%
750
1% 1%
2Q13F 3Q13F
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
Spending Indicators During the first nine months of this year, total vehicle sales grew by 2.4% annually to 111,586 units. However, on a quarterly basis, it contracted by 3.8% and fell short by 1,556 units. The decline in sales mainly occurred in August when the severe flooding on top of fewer working days hampered sales activities. The Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI), however, sees sustained strong performance for the remainder of the year. The inflows of new vehicle models backed by a positive economic outlook were cited as the main growth drivers.
Car Sales
1Q13
550
0%
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PHILIPPINES | 3Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 522 offices in PHILIPPINES MANAGEMENT TEAM 62 countries on
INVESTMENT SERVICES Ieyo De Guzman | Executive Director OFFICE SERVICES - Landlord & Tenant Representations Jie Espinosa | Director REAL ESTATE MANAGEMENT SERVICES Christian Espinar | Director
6 continents
United States: 147 offices Canada: 37 offices Latin America: 19 offices Asia Pacific: 201 offices EMEA: 118 offices $1.8 billion in annual revenue 1.25 billion square feet under management
Over 12,300 professionals worldwide VALUATION & ADVISORY SERVICES Marissa Benitez | Director RESIDENTIAL SERVICES Gigi Limguangco | Associate Director REAL ESTATE MANAGMENT SERVICES Micky Oriola | Associate Director
Karlo Pobre
RECENT RECOGNITIONS
Research Analyst Consultancy & Valuation Services Main +632 888 9988 ext. 4030 Fax +632 845 2612 Email karlo.pobre@colliers.com
Julius Guevara
PHILIPPINE EUROMONEY Real Estate Awards 2011 - Winner * Best Overall Adviser & Consultant * Agency | Letting * Valuation * Reseach
Associate Director Advisory & Research Main +632 888 9988 ext. 4024 FAX +632 845 2612 Email julius.guevara@colliers.com
David A. Young
Managing Director Colliers International Philippines Main +632 888 9988 FAX +632 845 2612 Email david.a.young@colliers.com
Copyright 2011 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
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