Second Annual Survey of Australian Attitudes to Climate Change: INTERIM REPORT

Leviston, Z. & Walker, I. Social & Behavioural Sciences Research Group September 2011

Enquiries should be addressed to: Dr. Iain Walker Research Group Leader Ecosystem Sciences Phone: 61 8 9333 6291 Fax: 61 8 9333 6444 Email: Iain.A.Walker@csiro.au

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Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................. iv 1. 2. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5
1.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 Demographic profile of respondents ......................................................................... 5 Climate change and its causes ................................................................................. 6 What people think other people think ....................................................................... 9 Harm, worry, experience and importance ............................................................... 11 Trust and responsibility ........................................................................................... 13 Federal Government action on climate change ...................................................... 15 Climate change causes, political orientation and pro-environmental behaviour .... 19 Behaviour and climate change attitudes ................................................................. 21 Cognitions ............................................................................................................... 22 Emotions ................................................................................................................. 23

General attitudes towards climate change ...................................................... 6

3.

Climate change and behaviour....................................................................... 17

3.1 3.2

4.

How people think and feel about climate change ......................................... 22

4.1 4.2

5. 6.

Natural disasters ............................................................................................. 25 Changes over time .......................................................................................... 26

6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 General attitudes towards climate change ............................................................. 26 Harm, worry, experience and importance ............................................................... 28 Trust ........................................................................................................................ 29 Responsibility for causing and responding to climate change ................................ 29 Pro-environmental behaviour.................................................................................. 29 Emotions ................................................................................................................. 31 Cognitions ............................................................................................................... 32

7.

Concluding remarks........................................................................................ 33

References ................................................................................................................ 35 Acknowledgements.................................................................................................. 35

List of Figures
Figure 1: Percentage of agreement that climate change is happening (n=5030) ................. 6 Figure 2: Typological breakdown of thoughts about climate change (n=2522) ................... 8 Figure 3: Typological breakdown of thoughts about climate change with amended phrasing (n=2508). ............................................................................................................... 8 Figure 4. Comparison of respondents actual levels of agreement with each statement with their estimates of the Australian communitys agreement (n=5030) ...................... 9 Figure 5. Respondents estimates of the Australian communitys levels of agreement with each statement, broken down by respondents own opinion type (n=5030) ............... 10 Figure 6: Levels of worry about climate change as a percentage of respondents ............ 11 Figure 7: Levels of personal harm arising from climate change as a percentage of respondents ........................................................................................................................ 11 Figure 8: Levels of experience with climate change as a percentage of respondents ...... 12 Figure 9: Levels of the importance of climate change as a percentage of respondents ... 12 Figure 10: Mean ratings of trust in climate change information sources ........................... 13 Figure 11: Mean ratings of responsibility for causing climate change ............................... 14 Figure 12: Mean ratings of responsibility for responding to climate change ..................... 14 Figure 13: Satisfaction with Federal Government action on climate change (n=5030) ..... 15 Figure 14: Satisfaction with Federal Government action by climate change typology ..... 15 Figure 15: Support for carbon pricing scheme with different phrasing (n=5030) .............. 16 Figure 16: Support for carbon pricing scheme by climate change typology ...................... 16 Figure 17: Percentage of respondents engaging in explicit environmental behaviours ... 17 Figure 18: Percentage of respondents engaging in climate change relevant behaviours 18 Figure 19: Opinions about the causes of climate change by voting behaviour ................. 19 Figure 20: Pro-environmental behaviour scores by voting behaviour (n=4130) ................ 20 Figure 21: Pro-environmental behaviour scores by climate change typology (n=5030) ... 20 Figure 22: Perceptions of frequency of natural disasters (n=5030) ..................................... 25 Figure 23: Perceptions of severity of natural disasters (n=5030) ........................................ 25 Figure 24: Levels of engagement in pro-environmental behaviour for any reason (n=1355) .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Figure 25: Levels of engagement in pro-environmental behaviour for mainly environmental reasons (n=1355) ...................................................................................... 30

ii

List of Tables
Table 1. Simultaneous regression analysis of climate change attitudes and behaviour .. 21 Table 2: Mean ratings of agreement with cognitive evaluations of climate change .......... 22 Table 3: Mean ratings of agreement with emotions prompted by climate change (n=5036) ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Table 4: Most highly rated emotion descriptor for each climate change type ................... 24 Table 5: Agreement with statements about the causes of climate change over time ....... 26 Table 6: Comparison of numbers of repeat respondents selecting that climate change was occurring due to natural or human activity over time (n=1355) ............................ 27 Table 7: Mean ratings of attitudes to by climate change over time (n=1355) ..................... 28 Table 8: Mean ratings of agreement with emotions prompted by climate change over time (n=1355)............................................................................................................................... 31 Table 9: Mean ratings of agreement with cognitive evaluations of climate change over time (n=1355) ...................................................................................................................... 32

iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A survey of 5030 Australians was conducted in July and August of 2011 seeking peoples understandings of climate change. Respondents included a cohort of 1355 people who undertook a similar survey in 2010. The findings suggest that most people agree that climate change is happening, but are evenly split about the role played by human activity. Whether people think that climate change is caused mainly by humans or is a natural phenomenon is strongly linked to: o o o o who people think is responsible for causing and acting on climate change peoples perceptions of the importance of climate change how worried people are about climate change, and whether people think climate change will harm them personally.

Whether people engage in behaviours that help mitigate climate change is related to: o o opinions about the causes of climate change, but more importantly, to: how important and personally relevant climate change is perceived to be, and feeling a moral and ethical responsibility to act on climate change.

Political orientation and voting behaviour are linked to people's climate change opinions and behaviours. Support for policy responses to climate change was strongly influenced by wording. There was strong evidence that people overestimate the prevalence of climate change denial in Australia. This overestimation is strongest for those who themselves disagree that climate change is happening. Conversely, people underestimate levels of acceptance that climate change is happening. Analyses of responses from people who participated in both the 2010 and 2011 surveys revealed small reductions in rated responsibility for causing climate change and for responding to it. There were small decreases in trust ratings of scientists for those who thought climate change was a natural phenomenon. For those who accepted human-induced climate change, there were increases in trust for government and scientists, suggesting some polarisation of peripheral climate change attitudes. There have been no dramatic shifts in climate change beliefs and attitudes between 2010 and 2011, although there is some suggestive evidence of a slight decrease in the percentage accepting that humans contribute to climate change. The survey is due to be repeated in July 2012.

iv

INTRODUCTION

1.

INTRODUCTION

This report presents the findings of a survey undertaken in July and August of 2011 with 5030 Australians. The survey forms part of a longitudinal research program seeking to understand what and how Australians think about climate change. Respondents included a cohort of 1355 people who undertook a similar survey in July and August of 2010 (Leviston & Walker, 2010). We present a snapshot of current Australian attitudes and behaviours relevant to climate change, and an analysis of changes in attitudes since 2010. The survey is due to be repeated in July 2012. The survey was administered online using a representative group of respondents from across metropolitan, regional and rural Australia. Respondents were drawn from a research-only panel of 300,000 individuals.1

1.1

Demographic profile of respondents

The demographic profile of respondents corresponded closely with the population characteristics of Australians (ABS, 2010). Small differences were found between the entire survey sample, repeat respondents, and the national population data on gender, age groups and individual income, but these differences had no impact on the interpretation of the data.2

A research-only panel means that panel members complete only surveys intended for legitimate research purposes. This strategy reduces the number of professional survey respondents and increases the representativeness of respondents across behavioural, attitudinal and lifestyle criteria. The panel used for this survey is administered by ORU, an online fieldwork company with QSOAP 'Gold Standard' and Global ISO 26362 standard accreditation.
1 2

For the entire survey sample, those in lower income brackets were marginally underrepresented, while those in higher age brackets were marginally over-represented. Males were marginally over-represented among the repeat respondents. We tested the effects of these differences on dependent variables. Scores on the behaviour variable were significantly different between males and females (p<.01), and across age categories (p<.01). The corresponding effect sizes were extremely small (eta squared = .02 for both), indicating that the differences were not meaningful. No significant differences were found on the basis of income.

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

2. 2.1

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change and its causes

An initial question asking about the existence of climate change revealed that roughly three-quarters (77%) of respondents thought that climate change was happening (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Percentage of agreement that climate change is happening (n=5030)

Women were more likely than men to agree that climate change was happening, but the association was small.3 Those who lived in regional towns were less likely to agree that climate change was happening than those in capital cities or rural areas, but the association was very small.4 Younger people were marginally more likely to agree climate change was happening, but again the association was very small.5 Personal

Women = 78.5% agreement; men = 75.8% agreement. X2[1, N=5030] = 16.48, p = .01, Cramers V = .06
4

Eta squared = .005. This contrasts with findings from the 2010 where it was found that those in rural areas were slightly less likely to think climate change was happening than those in capital cities or regional towns. Yes mean date of birth =1960, SD=15.68; No mean date of birth =1956.5, SD=14.64, t(5028)=6.82, p<001, r = -.096.
5

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

income levels were unrelated to agreement.6 Those from higher household income brackets were slightly more likely to agree that climate change was happening.7 Half of the respondents were asked to rate which of a series of statements best described their thoughts about the causes of climate change (Figure 2). The wording was the same as that used in the 2010 survey. The large majority thought climate change was happening, with slightly more considering it a result of natural temperature variability than as something caused by humans. The remaining half of respondents received the same question with the last statement slightly altered to test for the effect of question wording (Figure 3). There was significantly more agreement with the thought of human-induced climate change using this phrasing, although the overall pattern of responses was similar.8 For the remaining 2011 analyses, the four groups displayed in Figures 2 and 3 were aggregated.9

p = .08 X2 [1, N=5030] = 5.22, p = .02, Cramers V = .02 Chi-square goodness-of-fit test, X2 (3, 2508) = 13.78, p = .003.

Regression analyses with these two groupings and other key attitudinal variables revealed no significant differences attributable to question framing, hence the aggregation of the two items into one variable was deemed appropriate.

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

Figure 2: Typological breakdown of thoughts about climate change (n=2522)

Figure 3: Typological breakdown of thoughts about climate change with amended phrasing (n=2508).

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

2.2

What people think other people think

Respondents were asked to estimate the percentage of Australians they thought would agree with each of the four statements shown in Figures 2 and/or 3. Figure 4 presents a comparison of actual levels of agreement10 with these estimates. On average, respondents overestimated the proportion of people denying that climate change was happening, and underestimated the proportion who thought climate change was happening due to either natural or human processes.

Figure 4: Comparison of respondents actual levels of agreement with each statement with their estimates of the Australian communitys agreement (n=5030)

10

Here, actual levels refer to responses by our own survey sample (n=5030).

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

Figure 5 shows these estimates broken into groups based on responses to the questions shown in Figures 2 and 3. Every group estimated that their own belief type was the most common. Those who denied or didnt know whether climate change was happening grossly overestimated levels of general agreement with their own statement. Those who thought that climate change was happening, either due to natural fluctuations or human activity, moderately underestimated levels of general agreement with their own statement. Every group overestimated the percentage of people who denied that climate change was happening.

Figure 5: Respondents estimates of the Australian communitys levels of agreement with each statement, broken down by respondents own opinion type (n=5030)

10

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

2.3

Harm, worry, experience and importance

Respondents were asked a series of general questions about their attitudes towards climate change and its impacts. Figure 6 suggests that the majority of people are either not very or somewhat worried about climate change, while Figure 7 suggests the majority consider it will harm them at least moderately. Levels of worry and perceived personal harm depended on whether climate change was considered a natural phenomenon or human-induced.11

Figure 6: Levels of worry about climate change as a percentage of respondents

Figure 7: Levels of personal harm arising from climate change as a percentage of respondents

11

For ease of interpretation, group comparisons in these figures are here limited to the two main group types, who represent 88.4% of the whole sample.

11

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

Respondents rated their level of personal experience with climate change and how important they thought climate change was. Figure 8 suggests that the majority of people consider they have had little or no personal experience with the effects of climate change, although a large proportion (34.5%) of those who consider climate change to be human-induced thought they had experienced moderate levels or a great deal of the effects of climate change. The perceived importance of climate change also varied according to whether people thought it was human-induced or natural, with larger levels of importance cited by those who considered it human-induced (Figure 9).

Figure 8: Levels of experience with climate change as a percentage of respondents

Figure 9: Levels of the importance of climate change as a percentage of respondents

12

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

2.4

Trust and responsibility

Respondents were asked to rate their levels of trust in different sources to provide them with truthful information about climate change (Figure 10). Those who considered climate change a natural process reported lower levels of trust than those who considered it human-induced in all sources but car and oil companies. While University scientists topped the rankings in trust, government and local authorities fared relatively poorly outranking only car and oil companies for those who considered climate change human-induced. Friends and family were rated the most trusted source of information for those who considered climate change a natural phenomenon.

Figure 10: Mean ratings of trust in climate change information sources

13

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

The survey also sought views on which entities people considered most responsible for causing climate change. Figure 11 reveals that those who considered climate change a natural phenomenon, on average also considered big-polluting countries and multinational corporations as partly responsible for causing it.

Figure 11: Mean ratings of responsibility for causing climate change

Respondents were also asked about which entities they thought had the greatest responsibility for responding to climate change. Figure 12 shows the greatest rating of responsibility was given to big-polluting countries; the responsibility of individuals to respond to climate change was rated significantly lower than all other entities.

Figure 12: Mean ratings of responsibility for responding to climate change

14

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

2.5

Federal Government action on climate change

Respondents were asked a series of questions about Federal Government responses to climate change.12 In relation to general attitudes on Federal Government action, the most common response was that the Government was doing the wrong thing about climate change (Figure 13).

Figure 13: Satisfaction with Federal Government action on climate change (n=5030)

Figure 14 shows these attitudes broken down by each climate change type.

Figure 14: Satisfaction with Federal Government action by climate change typology
12

At the time of the survey, the federal Australian Labor Party held office and had just launched their proposed policy for a price on carbon.

15

GENERAL ATTITUDES TOWARDS CLIMATE CHANGE

To test attitudes about a proposed price on carbon, respondents were randomly assigned one of two questions: one framed with direct relevance to the Federal Governments proposed carbon pricing scheme (announced just prior to the survey), and the other framed in general terms. Figure 15 shows higher levels of support for a price on carbon framed in general terms.

Figure 15: Support for carbon pricing scheme with different phrasing (n=5030)

Figure 16 shows average support for carbon pricing broken down for each climate change type.

Figure 16: Support for carbon pricing scheme by climate change typology

16

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

3.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

Respondents were asked 11 questions relating to behaviour relevant to greenhouse gas emissions. Behaviours ranged from personal transport choices to purchasing decisions and political activism. Motivations for performing carbon-friendly behaviours were also accounted for. Responses are shown on the next page (Figure 18). As well as these individual pro-environmental behaviours, respondents were asked to indicate whether they engaged in any of the community-based environmental behaviours in Figure 17.

Figure 17: Percentage of respondents engaging in explicit environmental behaviours

An aggregated score was calculated for each respondent to capture the total number of individual and community-based environmental behaviours in which they participated.13

13

For each of the individual behaviours, a score of 1 was given for each behaviour engaged in for non-environmental reasons, and a score of 2 was given for each behaviour engaged in for mainly environmental reasons. For community-based behaviours, a score or 2 was given for each behaviour engaged in, as each of these behaviours were deemed explicitly environmental in motivation.

17

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

Figure 18: Percentage of respondents engaging in climate change relevant behaviours

18

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

3.1

Climate change causes, political orientation and proenvironmental behaviour

Respondents were asked to nominate who they voted for in the 2010 Federal election.14 Figure 19 provides a breakdown of voting behaviour by opinions about the causes of climate change. Those who voted Labor or Greens were more likely to agree with human-induced climate change, while those voting Liberal and National were more likely to consider climate change a product of natural variation.

Figure 19: Opinions about the causes of climate change by voting behaviour

Figure 20 provides a breakdown of voting behaviours and average pro-environmental behaviour scores. Those who voted for the Greens had significantly higher behaviour scores than those who voted for Labor or for an independent. Those who voted Liberal or National had the lowest behaviour scores on average.

A total of 900 respondents recorded a response of Other, Nobody, or Prefer not to answer.
14

19

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

Figure 20: Pro-environmental behaviour scores by voting behaviour (n=4130)

Figure 21 displays the average aggregated behaviour score for respondents from each climate change type. All four groups differed significantly. People who thought humaninduced climate change was happening scored highest on average and those who thought it was not happening scored lowest.

Figure 21: Pro-environmental behaviour scores by climate change typology (n=5030)

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Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CLIMATE CHANGE AND BEHAVIOUR

3.2

Behaviour and climate change attitudes

To investigate what sort of attitudes could best account for (or predict) the amount of pro-environmental behaviours people engaged in, peoples responses to a set of attitudinal questions about climate change were compared with their overall behaviour score. A simultaneous regression quantified the unique contribution of each attitudinal statement in predicting a persons overall behaviour score. These contributions are denoted by the beta score in the second column of Table 1; higher beta scores indicate that an item is a better indicator of a persons behaviour score. Table 1 shows that attitudes about the importance of climate change, perceived ethical responsibility and moral duty, and perceived personal relevance of climate were the best predictors of the extent to which someone was engaged in pro-environmental behaviours. Certainty about human-induced climate change was relatively unimportant.
Table 1. Simultaneous regression analysis of climate change attitudes and behaviour

Item Over past year, have you become more or less certain that climate change is happening? How worried are you about climate change? How much do you think climate change will harm you? How important is climate change to you? How much have you experienced climate change? How personally relevant is climate change to you? I feel it is my ethical responsibility to change my individual behaviour to combat climate change I feel a moral duty to do something about climate change How sure are you that climate change is happening? How certain are you that climate change is caused by humans?

.01

.05* .06** .19** .05** .13**

.19**

.13** .06** .03

Total amount of variance in behaviour score explained (R squared): 41% * Significant predictive contribution at p < .05 ** Significant contribution at p < .001

21

HOW PEOPLE THINK AND FEEL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

4.

HOW PEOPLE THINK AND FEEL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE Cognitions

4.1

Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with several statements on a scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree) about climate change and what some of its potential impacts might be. Average ratings for each statement are provided in Table 2, in order of most agreed with to least agreed with.
Table 2: Mean ratings of agreement with cognitive evaluations of climate change

Statement (n=5030) Responding to climate change will cost Australia a lot of money Climate change will result in financial hardship for many people Doing something about climate change is an opportunity to be part of something bigger than ourselves Trying to do something about climate change will mean a lot of people lose their jobs The challenge of climate change will provide people with a sense of purpose There's nothing Australia can do about climate change that will make a meaningful difference Climate change will foster greater community spirit and connectedness Climate change may mean that wealth and resources end up being distributed more fairly

Mean 3.81 3.46

SD 1.00 1.03

3.33

1.12

3.11

1.13

3.08

1.01

2.95

1.35

2.72

0.97

2.42

0.98

22

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

HOW PEOPLE THINK AND FEEL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

4.2

Emotions

Respondents were asked to rate a list of emotions, on a scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree), according to how climate change made them feel. Average ratings are provided in Table 3. The most strongly related emotions were negative (irritated, angry, confused), but overall, respondents did not indicate strong emotions at all.
Table 3: Mean ratings of agreement with emotions prompted by climate change (n=5036)

Emotion Descriptor Irritated Angry Confused Powerless Hopeful Fearful Bored Ashamed Despairing Guilty Excited Joyful

Mean

SD

3.09 3.07 3.00 2.93 2.83 2.80 2.78 2.63 2.61 2.55 2.22 2.17

1.12 1.06 1.09 1.03 0.97 1.09 1.16 1.06 .99 1.03 1.16 .86

23

HOW PEOPLE THINK AND FEEL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

Table 4 displays the most highly rated emotions for each climate change type.

Table 4: Most highly rated emotion descriptor for each climate change type

Climate change type

Most highly agreed with emotion descriptor

Mean rating

I dont think that climate change is happening (n=364) I have no idea whether climate change is happening or not (n=220) I think that climate change is happening, but its just a natural variation in Earths temperatures (n=2201) I think that climate change is happening, and I think that it has largely been caused by humans (n=2245)

Irritated

3.66

Confused

3.42

Irritated

3.27

Fear

3.29

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Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

NATURAL DISASTERS

5.

NATURAL DISASTERS

Respondents were asked to nominate which statement best represented their point of view regarding the frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as floods, bushfires and cyclones (Figure 22 and Figure 23). Roughly two-thirds of respondents thought these natural disasters were occurring more frequently and were more severe, but were divided on whether this was attributable to human activity or was the result of natural fluctuations. Less than a quarter of respondents disagreed that natural disasters were more frequent and severe.

Figure 22: Perceptions of frequency of natural disasters (n=5030)

Figure 23: Perceptions of severity of natural disasters (n=5030)

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CHANGES OVER TIME

6.

CHANGES OVER TIME

A total of 1355 respondents from the 2010 survey completed the current 2011 survey, allowing tests for significant changes over time to be conducted. This section investigates such changes on key questions.

6.1

General attitudes towards climate change

Significantly fewer respondents stated that they thought climate change was occurring in the 2011 survey (75.5%) than the 2010 survey (80.4%),15 but changes in agreement with the series of statements about the causes of climate change were not statistically significant (Table 5).
Table 5: Agreement with statements about the causes of climate change over time

Statement

% 2010 (n=1355) 6.2

% 2011 (n=674) 8.5

I dont think that climate change is happening I have no idea whether climate change is happening or not I think that climate change is happening, but its just a natural fluctuation in Earths temperatures I think that climate change is happening, and I think that humans are largely causing it

3.7

3.3

46.9

47.9

43.2

40.4

15

McNemar test: p < .001, n=1355.

26

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CHANGES OVER TIME

Table 6 illustrates the number of people who agreed with each statement in 2010 and 2011. Boxes shaded in grey represent the number of respondents who selected the same statement in both surveys. Boxes shaded in pink represent respondents who agreed in 2010 that climate change was human-induced, but moved away from that view in 2011. By contrast, boxes shaded in green represent respondents who did not agree in 2010 that climate change was human-induced, but moved towards this view in 2011.

Table 6: Comparison of numbers of repeat respondents selecting that climate change was occurring due to natural or human activity over time (n=1355)

2010 Survey Causation type

Dont think climate change is happening Dont know if climate change is happening Climate change happening, but natural Climate change happening, and humaninduced

Dont think climate change is happening

39

53

13

2011 Dont know if Survey

climate change is happening Climate change happening, but natural Climate change happening, and human- induced

20

16

41

17

441

115

81

493

Together, these results suggest an overall slight reduction in acceptance of humaninduced climate change. Table 6 also suggests, however, that an appreciable number of people (those denoted by the boxes shaded in green) are now more willing to attribute climate change to human activity than they were in 2010.

27

CHANGES OVER TIME

6.2

Harm, worry, experience and importance

Changes in mean ratings of harm, worry, experience and importance attached to climate change are shown in Table 7. There were moderate decreases in worry, perceived personal harm and perceived experience with climate change since 2010. There were also small decreases in certainty that climate change was happening and in the importance of climate change.

Table 7: Mean ratings of attitudes to by climate change over time (n=1355)

Statement

Mean 2010

Mean 2011

Direction of change

Effect size

Over the past year, have you become more or less sure that climate change is happening? How worried are you about climate change? How much do you think climate change will harm you personally? How important is the issue of climate change to you personally? How much have you personally experienced the effects of climate change? ** Significant change from the 2010 mean at the p < .01 1.96 1.77** Lower Moderate 3.05 2.85** Lower Small 2.33 2.12** Lower Moderate 3.37 3.24** Lower Small

2.63

2.42**

Lower

Moderate

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Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CHANGES OVER TIME

6.3

Trust

Changes to levels of trust in different sources to provide information on climate change were also examined. While there were statistically significant changes in levels of trust for some sources, they were either small or very small.16 For those respondents who thought climate change was happening and humaninduced (n=585), there was a significant moderate increase in trust in government. There were also significant but small increases in trust in government scientists, industrial scientists, local authorities, oil companies and car companies; and significant but small decreases in trust in people from their community and friends and family. For those respondents who thought climate change was happening, but due to natural variation (n=614), there were significant but small decreases in trust for environmental organisations, university scientists, government scientists, environmental scientists and government; and significant but small increases in trust for oil and car companies.

6.4

Responsibility for causing and responding to climate change

An examination of changes to ratings of responsibility for causing climate change showed a significant moderate reduction in responsibility ratings of multi-national corporations. There were significant but small reductions in responsibility ratings for all other bodies: Big-polluting countries, wealthy countries, the Federal Government, state governments, local governments, normal individuals, and global organisations. Responsibility ratings for responding to climate change yielded significant but small reductions in responsibility for the following bodies: Local governments, state governments, the Federal Government, global organisations and multi-national corporations.

6.5

Pro-environmental behaviour

Changes in individual pro-environmental behaviour were examined. Figure 24 shows levels of engagement in behaviour regardless of whether it was environmentally motivated, while Figure 25 shows levels of engagement for mainly environmental reasons. While engagement in pro-environmental behaviours in general remained relatively constant, in most cases there was a slight drop in attributing these behaviours to environmental reasons.

That is, the eta squared a measure of effect size was below .06 for each information source
16

29

CHANGES OVER TIME

Figure 24: Levels of engagement in pro-environmental behaviour for any reason (n=1355)

Figure 25: Levels of engagement in pro-environmental behaviour for mainly environmental reasons (n=1355)

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Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CHANGES OVER TIME

6.6

Emotions

Table 8 presents changes in emotion ratings over time, scored on a scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree) according to how climate change made them feel. For the most part, emotions about climate change remained relatively stable from 2010 to 2011. There were small reductions in feelings of shame, guilt and fear, and small increases in feelings of boredom and irritation. There was a moderate reduction in feelings of hope, with the mean rating dropping below the scale midpoint.

Table 8: Mean ratings of agreement with emotions prompted by climate change over time (n=1355)

Emotion Descriptor Angry Ashamed Guilty Fearful Hopeful Powerless Joyful Confused Despairing Excited Bored Irritated

Mean 2010 3.02 2.77 2.60 2.90 3.08 2.95 2.11 2.79 2.61 2.26 2.54 2.89

Mean 2011 3.05 2.54 ** 2.44** 2.67** 2.82** 2.89 2.12 2.90** 2.54* 2.20* 2.79** 3.09**

Direction of change No change Lower Lower Lower Lower No change No change Higher Lower Lower Higher Higher

Effect size

None Small Small Small Moderate Negligible Negligible Very small Very small Very small Small Small

* Significant change from 2010 mean at the p < .05 level ** Significant change from 2010 mean at the p < .01

31

CHANGES OVER TIME

6.7

Cognitions

Table 9 presents change over time for statements about how respondents thought about climate change and what some of its potential impacts might be. There were small increases in agreement with the negative outcomes of responding to climate change, and small decreases in agreement with positive outcomes. There were moderate increases in the sentiment that responding to climate change would cost jobs, and that nothing Australia could do would make a meaningful difference.
Table 9: Mean ratings of agreement with cognitive evaluations of climate change over time (n=1355)

Statement

Mean 2010

Mean 2011

Direction of change

Effect size

Responding to climate change will cost Australia a lot of money Doing something about climate change is an opportunity to be part of something bigger than ourselves Climate change will result in financial hardship for many people The challenge of climate change will provide people with a sense of purpose Climate change will foster greater community spirit and connectedness Trying to do something about climate change will mean a lot of people lose their jobs Climate change may mean that wealth and resources end up being distributed more fairly There's nothing Australia can do about climate change that will make a meaningful difference

3.17

3.84**

Higher

Small

3.49

3.27**

Lower

Small

3.49

3.42*

Lower

Very small

3.22

3.04**

Lower

Small

2.88

2.66**

Lower

Small

2.87

3.19**

Higher

Moderate

2.54

2.36**

Lower

Small

2.61

3.07**

Higher

Moderate

* Significant change from 2010 mean at the p < .05 level ** Significant change from 2010 mean at the p < .01

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Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

CONCLUDING REMARKS

7.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Most people agree that climate change is happening; but the Australian community is evenly split about the impact human activity has on climate change. Whether people think climate change is caused mainly by humans or is a natural phenomenon is strongly linked to other beliefs, values and attitudes they hold about who is responsible for causing climate change and who is responsible for acting on climate change. It is also strongly linked to perceptions of the importance of climate change, how worried people are about it, and whether they think it will harm them personally. Whether people think that climate change is caused mainly by humans or is a natural phenomenon is only very weakly related to age, income, gender, and the region in which people live. Opinions about the causes of climate change are related to a range of individual and community behaviours. But the more important predictors of behaviour are how important climate change is perceived to be, how personally relevant it is, and feeling a moral and ethical responsibility to act. Less important is how certain people are about whether human activity is driving climate change. This suggests that efforts to change behaviours would be better invested in stressing the relevance of climate change impacts and our role in mitigating and adapting to these impacts, rather than beliefs about whether human activity causes climate change. Political orientation and voting behaviour are linked to people's climate change opinions and behaviours. There were strong effects on support for policy responses to climate change based on question phrasing, highlighting the importance of communication and other social processes in energising support. There was strong evidence that people who deny that climate change is happening overestimate how prevalent their own views are in the wider community, perhaps reflecting the importance of friends and family in shaping beliefs. There was also strong evidence that people largely overestimate the prevalence of outright deniers in the community regardless of their own view: the estimated prevalence is about 23%, compared to the actual prevalence of about 7%. These disparities may reflect the role of the media in portraying and shaping public opinion. Analyses of responses from people who participated in both the 2010 and 2011 surveys revealed small reductions in rated responsibility for causing climate change and for responding to it. A small decrease in trust ratings of scientific groups was evident for those who thought climate change was a natural phenomenon. We also saw increases in trust for government and scientists, suggesting some polarisation of peripheral climate change attitudes. Climate change beliefs have remained fairly stable between 2010 and 2011, although there is some suggestive evidence of a slight decrease in the percentage accepting that humans contribute to climate change. Trends are difficult to detect with just two

33

CONCLUDING REMARKS

data points: a third survey to be conducted in July 2012 will enable firmer conclusions to be drawn about trends in Australians' views about climate change.

34

Second annual survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Interim Report September 2011

REFERENCES

REFERENCES
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2010). Australian demographic statistics. Cat. No. 3101.0. Canberra, ACT, Australian Bureau of Statistics. Leviston, Z., & Walker, I. (2010). Baseline survey of Australian attitudes to climate change: Preliminary report. CSIRO: Perth.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research contained in this report was funded by the CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship as part of the Adaptive Behaviours project. The authors wish to thank Dave Tucker, Natasha Porter, and Sarah Morwinski for their assistance in compiling this report, and Anne Leitch and Roger Lawes for their timely and insightful reviews.

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