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The Talent-Shortage Myth

Posted: 08/02/2007, 11:04 AM PT

Every week, I get pitches from PR people touting experts who want to talk about the great talent shortage that will soon be upon us, given that the 76 million baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964 will start retiring soon. Im sure these "experts" are well-meaning, but like a lot of the verbiage that experts and consultants spew, I dont buy it. Thats not to say that there wont be worker shortages in some specific areas (think nurses or other health care workers, for example), but the notion that the baby-boom generation will retire in lockstep once they hit age 65 is ridiculous. Weve said it in numerous stories in Workforce Management, like in this story by Ed Frauenheim. A story this week in The Detroit News also hits this baby boomer talent-shortage myth squarely on the head. The story, "Baby boomers stay on the job longer than other generations," focused on the need for companies to help older workers who plan to remain in the workforce past the typical retirement age of 65. The article pointed to an AARP survey that found that 69 percent of laborers between the age of 45 and 74 plan to work during their retirement. According to the story: "The economic impact will be positive, said Dana Johnson, chief economist for Comerica Bank. Retaining older workers will ease the burden of finding enough new employees to replace the 10 million baby boomers who will be eligible for retirement by 2010. Working longer also means seniors are still contributing to the dwindling Social Security fund. To me, its a good example of the flexibility of our economy, Johnson said." Dont get me wrong: Im not saying that businesses should sit back and do nothing because workers are going to magically keep working and stay on the job. Its always prudent to plan for unforeseen shortages and contingencies, whether were talking about workers, materials or anything else. But I do believe that all the gloom-anddoom talk about some giant worker shortage because baby boomers are going to start retiring in droves is fueled by people taking an extremely limited and narrow look at retirement patterns. What they are forecasting will be, at best, a demographic ripple and not the giant tidal wave they want us to believe is out there. "I plan on working until I drop dead," Carol Dowdy, 59, wellness

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12/09/2007

The Talent-Shortage Myth | workforce.com

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director for Artisan/National Logistics Management in Detroit, told the News. Amen to that, I say, because Im one of those baby boomers who just happen to agree with her and plan to do the same. I suspect that there are a lot more of us in the same boat. Got a thought about the predicted talent shortage or any of my other posts? Until we get the comment posting function on this blog operational, send me comments at jhollon@workforce.com. I will publish as many of them as I can.

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Next Post: 8. Why You Always Need a Plan B

The Michael Vick case presents an interesting object lesson for managers everywhere, and its this: You always need to have a viable fallback position that can save you, no matter what unexpected disaster befalls you. Youve got to have a Plan B.

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