Journal of Coastal Research

24

306316

West Palm Beach, Florida

March 2008

Implications of Climatic Change on Spanish Mediterranean Low-Lying Coasts: The Ebro Delta Case
Agust n Sa nchez-Arcilla, Jose A. Jime nez, Herminia I. Valdemoro, and Vicenc Gracia
Laboratori dEnginyeria Mar tima, ETSECCPB Universitat Polte ` cnica de Catalunya c/Jordi Girona 1-3, Campus Nord ed. D1 08034 Barcelona Spain agustin.arcilla@upc.edu

ABSTRACT
NCHEZ-ARCILLA, A.; JIMI NEZ, J.A.; VALDEMORO, H.I., and GRACIA, V., 2008. Implications of climatic change SA on Spanish Mediterranean low-lying coasts: the Ebro delta case. Journal of Coastal Research, 24(2), 306316. West Palm Beach (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. A preliminary estimate of the implications of climatic change on the Ebro delta coast (Spanish Mediterranean) is presented based on an understanding of how climate and other changes will inuence the different driving factors that control the interacting formation and reduction processes acting on this low-lying coast. The formation processes are primarily of riverine origin and concern the supply of sediment and freshwater. The reduction processes considered are primarily of marine origin and include increases in inundation/ooding, decreases in storm return periods, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, and changes in wave climate (wave height, direction, and storminess). For the most part, climatologically induced changes affecting deltaic behaviour, i.e., those of marine origin, are most important for the Ebro delta because those of riverine origin will be signicantly damped by river regulation works. Hence, formation processes are suppressed whereas reduction processes will be unaffected by management policies, unless they are related to the coastal zone. Because of its morphology, relative sea-level rise (RSLR) will become the most important climate-induced potential hazard for the Ebro delta. When considering RSLR-induced inundation of deltaic areas below a given level (e.g., 0.5 m), although the deltaic surface below the projected level could be relatively large, impacts will be modulated by the protection offered by an active coastal zone that is able to react to the RSLR. Another direct result of sea-level rise will be a decrease in the return periods of maximum water levels, which due to the surge climate of the area will be very signicant. Finally, the estimated shoreline retreat due to the RSLR was small when compared to present evolution rates. However, they must be also considered because they will act as an additional background erosion rate along the entire coast. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Relative sea-level rise, coastal erosion, coastal ooding.

INTRODUCTION
There appears to be general agreement that global climatic change has been taking place over the last few decades in terms of variables such as global average temperature (HOUGHTON et al., 2001; LINDZEN, 1994). The effect of global climatic change on other variables such as sea-level-rise (SLR) is becoming more certain, the global sea level appears to be rising, and is likely to accelerate because of climate change (CHURCH et al., 2001; DOUGLAS, 2001). However, the magnitude of the future global mean change is highly uncertain, ranging from 9 to 88 cm by 2100 with greater uncertainty at the local and regional levels (CHURCH et al., 2001). In spite of this uncertainty, it is becoming progressively clear that human-induced global changes are indeed taking place. These changes, irrespective of their magnitude, will affect the more sensitive systems of the planet earlier and more intensively. As a sensitive system, deltaic systems provide, in this respect, an excellent test case to learn in an anticipatory manner the consequences of different kinds of
DOI: 10.2112/07A-0005.1 received and accepted in revision 19 April 2007.

human-induced changes such as variations in river liquid discharges, relative sea-level rise (RSLR), and river solid discharges (e.g., BROADUS et al., 1986; STONE and DONLEY, 1998). Deltaic coastal systems are subject to the interacting effects of river, sea, land, and atmospheric factors and will therefore be affected earlier by a range of drivers associated with climatic change, including RSLR caused by the cumulative effects of eustatic rise, local subsidence, and the low elevation of deltaic coastal fringes (JELGERSMA and SESTINI, NCHEZ-ARCILLA and JIME NEZ, (1997) presented a 1992). SA review on the potential physical changes on deltaic environments due to climate change. JEFTIC, MILLIMAN, and SESTINI (1992) edited a monograph on the impact of climatic change on the Mediterranean. In that work, JELGERSMA and SESTINI (1992) analysed the possible impact on coastal low O (1992) gave a preliminary view about the lands, and MARIN possible effects on the Ebro delta. This paper presents a rst estimate of possible effects of climatic change on the Ebro delta coast (Figure 1) following NCHEZ -A RCILLA et al. (1996) and the approach of SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA and JIME NEZ (1997) using the results preSA

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Table 1. Changes in climate-induced processes relevant to the Ebro delta (adapted from Sa nchez-Arcilla and Jime nez, 1997).
Deltaic Process Trend in Variable / Trend in Process

Climatological Variable

Formation Reduction

Rainfall rate Desertication SLR Storm frequency Wave characteristics

/ / / / /?

Figure 1. The Ebro delta. For a color version of this gure, see page 443.

NEZ et al. (1996; 1997) to dene the reference sented in JIME situation. The socioeconomic and natural implications of these induced effects can be evaluated in terms of deltaic vul NCHEZ-ARCILLA, JIME NEZ, and nerability as presented in SA VALDEMORO (1998).

relevant to the Ebro delta. The rst group of climatologicallyinduced changes are those related with deltaic formation. Two main variables are considered: variation in the rainfall rate in the river catchment area and decrease in the vegetation cover or desertication There have been several attempts to quantify rainfall rates in the Mediterranean basin (MITCHELL et al., 1990; PALUTIKOF et al., 1992). These predictions are usually obtained by using General Circulation Models (GCMs) fed by different climate scenarios. As an example of model-led results, PALUTIKOF et al. (1992) estimated a precipitation increase in the Mediterranean basin in autumn and winter and a decrease in summer and spring. To get an idea of the involved magnitudes, these authors, although stressing the condence limits of the model-led scenarios, estimated a mean change in precipitation of about 3%/C in the winter and around 3%/ C in the summer. WIGLEY (1992) analysed the effect of climatic change in the Mediterranean basin with emphasis on induced changes in precipitation using the results of several GCMs. He concluded that projected precipitation changes vary so much from model to model that one cannot say, on the basis of model results alone, whether precipitation will increase or decrease and summarised his results as follows: the best guess would be no major precipitation changes, with a hint of a slight increase in autumn precipitation. Whether or not there will be changes in the ner-scale details of precipitation (intensity, extreme values, etc.) is impossible to say on the basis of the obtained model results. (WIGLEY, 1992, p. 40) More recent analyses suggest reduced precipitation in the Mediterranean (KUNDZEWICZ et al., 2001; PARRY, 2000), which may vary according to the model used (see HOUGHTON et al., 2001). Qualitatively speaking, an increase in the rainfall rate in the catchment area should produce a potential increase in the river sediment supply. However, the distribution must also be considered especially in extreme events. A constant, i.e., uniformly distributed throughout the year, rainfall variation (increase or decrease) will not produce the same change in the potential sediment supply as a variation that inuences extreme precipitation events. This is a result of the fact that river sediment transport occurs when the river ow is over a determined threshold (i.e., any increases in precipitation producing a ow below that threshold will not induce an increase in the sediment supply because no transport will take place). Because of this, most riverine sand supplies will be generated

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DELTAS

Climatic change will alter a range of climatological variablesusually in a linked way. In a strict sense, most of these changes should alter the present deltaic system dynamics by acting on any of its components: physical, ecological, and/or socioeconomical. Because this work deals with physical changes on deltaic coastal fringes, it will focus on the variables affecting physical changes. The relevant variables were classied into two groups according to their overall role in the main physical processes governing deltaic coastal behaviour: (i) formation and (ii) reduction processes (Table 1). Formation processes refer to those processes governing deltaic growth and are mainly restricted to the river sediment supply. On the other hand, reduction processes are those acting along the whole coastal fringe, inducing sediment transport and coastal planform reshaping. Table 1 summarises, in a qualitative manner, some of the main climate-induced changes in physical deltaic processes

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Figure 2. Dams in the catchment basin of the Ebro river (Guille n, 1992).

Figure 3. Long-term evolution of the signicant wave height off the Ebro delta coast (modied from Jime nez, 1996).

during ood events. An investigation of these differences for the Ebro river was undertaken by SIERRA et al. (2004). The second possible climatologically induced change to consider is the potential for desertication in the drainage basin. This results from two main processes: aridity (periodical prolonged droughts) and destructive land-use practices (SESTINI, JEFTIC, and MILLIMAN, 1989). In spite of the uncertainties mentioned above, some qualitative conclusions can be obtained assuming an increase in the desertication process or a decrease in vegetation cover:. The most important of these is as desertication increases, greater soil erosion should be expected in the catchment area, producing a greater potential river sediment supply. The above-mentioned effects of these two variables on physical changes on the Ebro delta must be considered as potential effects. Because the Ebro catchment is heavily regulated, including a complex of dams constructed in its lower course in the early 1960s, nearly 97.5% of the drainage basin is regulated (see Figure 2). This will mean that changes in climatological variables in the catchment are greatly reduced compared to natural conditions, i.e., catchment management policies will dominate over climatological changes with respect to formation processes in the Ebro delta catchment area. The growth in demand for water combined with increasing scarcity may cause even greater reductions in water ows to the delta in the future. The second group of variables to be considered are those affecting deltaic reduction processes (Table 1) All of these are related to variables altering the existing coastal dynamics or the driving or forcing agents acting on the coastal zone. The rst difference between these reduction processes and the formation processes is that management policies in the drainage basin will not control changes induced by the former variables. The rst variable within this group is SLR, which is one of the most widely accepted climatic change effects acting on the coast (NICHOLLS, 2002). It is generally accepted that an increase in SLR will induce coastline erosion although less agreement exists on the magnitude of such erosion because it will depend on how it is calculated (see SCIENTIFIC COM-

OCEAN RESEARCH, 1991). Moreover, an increase in SLR will severely affect the deltas because many of them are also presently subjected to subsidence, which means that any acceleration in SLR leads to a larger RSLR. Additionally, and due to the very low elevations typical of deltaic areas, an increase in SLR can produce submergence in sheltered zones where there is a lack of sediment and wave energy to raise the coastal prole. Moreover, SLR will reduce the return period of extreme water levels associated with storm surges even without considering any possible variation in storminess. In the next section, a detailed analysis of the effects of SLR on the Ebro delta coastal evolution is presented. Another possible effect of climatic change related to coastal processes is a change in storminess. Most studies of this effect have focused on variations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and suggest an increase in their intensity (e.g., EMMANUEL, 1987; RAPER, 1993). At the latitude of the Ebro delta and the scale of the Mediterranean basin, no denitive numerical conclusions on changes in storm climate due to extra-tropical storms is available, and increases or decreases are possible. There are some empirical studies about variations in sea conditions in the North Sea (e.g., CARTER and DRAPER, 1988; HOOZEMANS, 1990) that are based on the analysis of longtime series of wave and wind characteristics. Applying the NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA methodology outlined in JIME (1997) to the existing wave data in the Ebro delta coast, no signicant trend has been observed in the yearly averaged offshore signicant wave height during a period of 20 years (see Figure 3). However, the existing time series of wave data are not sufciently long to allow us to assume that they are representative of the existence or absence of any long-term trend. When considering extreme events, the variance also needs to be considered (KATZ and BROWN, 1992). An increase in the annual average wave height should induce an increase in the magnitude of the sediment transport rates along the coast and, normally, an increase in the magnitude of coastal changes. At the same time, an increase in storminess (frequency and/or intensity) should induce a greater frequency and/or magnitude of erosive events. As
MITTEE ON

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coastal recovery processes are slower than erosive ones, this increase should induce a greater erosive trend in the coastal behaviour and, in some cases, could induce a net erosive longterm trend. Finally, maritime climate could also change in directionality. These changes could be induced by a change in meteorological conditions that will in turn, induce a change in the waves arriving at the coast. In this case, the discussion is similar to that presented for storminess, i.e., GCMs will not be accurate enough to work at the regional scale, and realistic projections cannot be made. Some empirical analyses of directionality have been carried out using existing time series of meteorological conditions (e.g., HOOZEMANS, 1990). Because waves acting on the coast are wind generated, a change in the frequency of winds from a determined direction will induce a change in the wave directional distribution, and this implies a change in the littoral dynamics governing the deltaic coastal evolution. However, the net effect on the resulting coastal behaviour (advantageous or disadvantageous in terms of coastal stability) will depend on the new prevailing directions. As these two last climatological changes are difcult to predict by GCMs, the conventional method for including them in coastal evolution studies is to follow a sensitivity analysis approach. The main difference between these scenarios and the SLR scenarios is that the former are selected not as the result of any specic climatological models, but as arbitrary changes to the drivers. A similar approach was adopted in this research and is presented in the following sections.

Figure 4. Storm surge climate at the Ebro delta under present conditions and for different scenarios of RSLR.

EFFECTS OF RSLR ON THE EBRO DELTA COAST

The possible effects of SLR on coastal zones are one of the most studied topics among the impacts of climatic change. An analysis of the effects of SLR on the Ebro delta coast, following the conceptual scheme described in the previous section NCHEZ-ARCILLA and JIME NEZ (1997) was undertaken by SA and is developed further here.

Changes in Wave Return Periods

One of the main direct effects of SLR on the Ebro delta coast would be a decrease of the return period of water levels associated with storm surges with respect to a point at the coast not experiencing vertical displacement. This is because an SLRof any originwill produce a vertical displacement of the mean water level. Figure 4 shows the decrease in return periods of the storm surges in the Ebro delta coast due to different scenarios of RSLR for the year 2050 (0.15, 0.25, and 0.4 m corresponding to RSLR scenarios that include eustatic and subsidence contributions of 3, 5, and 8 mm/y, respectively). The maximum water level associated with a return period of 50 years under present conditions corresponds to a return period of 22.8, 13.6, and 6.4 years for each of these RSLR scenarios, respectively. From these results, and without considering any increase in storminess, RSLR would induce a signicant decrease in the return periods associated with maximum water levels in the Ebro delta coast. However, the implications of this decrease need to be carefully evaluated. For instance, it can be

considered as realistic for rigid beach proles without a dynamic response to RSLR, in the sense that the beach geometry will not respond and the associated relative water levels will increase as a result of SLR. This will be also the case for coastal systems that are morphologically inactive. On the other hand, for coastal systems with a full dynamic response capacity, the associated relative water level will be maintained as the relative land-to-sea level will remain constant due to accretion. Where coastal systems are limited to partial dynamic response (e.g., the deltaic plain elevation is controlled by the net vertical accretion of soil), the associated relative water level will increase (or the return period will decrease) as much as the difference between net vertical accretion and RSLR. For the Ebro delta, and according to the vertical accretion rates observed under present conditions as EZ et al. (1995) during a period of 2 to 3 measured by IBAN years, only those zones directly inuenced by river sediment supply as well as those close to the coastal zone showed signicant vertical accretion rates. Most of the deltaic plain surface is devoted to rice cultivation and is impounded, isolating it from sediment supply. Hence, they suffer a loss of elevation under RSLR.

Inundation of Low-Lying Areas

Another direct effect of SLR on the Ebro delta would be the inundation/ooding of low-lying areas below the projected rise in sea level. This is only valid for nonactive areas from a morphological point of view, i.e., those areas not responding to RSLR. In the Ebro delta, these areas are restricted to zones in the deltaic plain without any sediment supply contributing to the vertical accretion and to the inner part of the spits such as the La Banya spit, which currently has an inner zone that is frequently inundated and displays an upper layer of very ne sediment (mud), locally called lucios. In order to illustrate the possible inuence of RSLR on inundation/ooding, Figure 5 shows the deltaic surface below 0.5 m. This is compared with areas inundated by an RSLR of 0.5 m. (This RSLR scenario roughly combines averaged subsidence of 3 mm/y acting from the time of the data (end

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Figure 5. Ebro delta areas below 0.5 m, and areas prone to be ooded due to an RSLR of 0.5 m. For a color version of this gure, see page 443.

of the 1960s) until 2050 and the central estimate for eustatic SLR given by CHURCH et al. (2001). As Figure 5 illustrates, although the deltaic surface below the 0.5-m level is relatively large as the Ebro delta is a lowlying coast, the land inundation is not so extensive because roads and the dynamic response of the coastal fringe will prevent a more extensive ooding. However, although the barrier effects of structures such as levees and roads will be efcient in the short term ( e.g., oods), their role in controlling inundation will not be efcient in the long-term ( e.g., climate changeinduced) unless protected areas are converted to polders. Of course, this would imply additional adaptation actions such as reinforcing barriers and installing pumping stations, among others. With this, the only efcient barrier to counteract RSLR will be the one formed by a dynamic coastline. Consequently, two different types of areas prone to inundation are identied according to a ranking of their risk levels. Risk level 1 refers to areas with a direct connection to the sea that will be instantaneously inundated by an RSLR of 0.5 m, whereas risk level 2 corresponds to areas without a direct connection to the sea but fronted by a coastal stretch subject to erosive processes and having suffered breaching events during the last decade. These two types of area represent about 17% and 27% of the deltaic surface, respectively (VALDEMORO, 2005). Another point to be noted when considering this ooding scenario is that land elevations were compiled from topographic measurements in the Ebro delta surveyed during the EZ, 1996). Hence these measure1960s (CANICIO and IBAN ments are only valid for the ooding scenario from an indic-

ative point of view; the details are not reliable at the required accuracy, especially considering the low altitude of the area. An example of the dynamic nature of coastal response to RSLR can be obtained by using the well-known Bruun Rule (SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON OCEAN RESEARCH, 1991). Assuming that the local wave climate (the main driving term acting on the coast) is steady and that a long-term equilibrium beach prole exists, a rise in sea level would force the coastal system toward a desequilibrium situation. If this same wave climate continues to act on the coast, the nal situation will be an equilibrium beach prole, similar to that before SLR, that has migrated upward and landward while remaining constant with respect to mean sea level (MSL), hence maintaining equilibrium. The Bruun Rule and similar methods are relatively simple tools to estimate the possible effect of RSLR on the coast and can be used to get an order of magnitude of expected coastal response (SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE ON OCEAN RESEARCH, 1991; STIVE, 2004; ZHANG, DOUGLAS, and LEATHERMAN, 2004). Their main limitation is that they do not consider the existence of processes/agents other than RSLR and can, therefore, only give the estimated coastal response to RSLR without taking into account other contributions (both positive and/or negative) to the coastal sedimentary budget. This can be connected with the calculated sediment budget under present conditions (or to the modied one if climatic change would alter the driving terms acting on the coast). Application of this kind of behaviour model to the Ebro delta case resulted in averaged erosion rates of 0.18m/y/mm using the Bruun Rule and 0.15 m/y/mm using the STIVE and DE VRIEND (1995) model, which includes the middle and lower shoreface response. The main consequence of this anticipated erosion due to SLR is that the sediment budget moves from quasi-equilibrium (no net gain nor loss of sediment) to negative as shown NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA (1993) and JIME NEZ et by JIME al. (1996). Under present conditions, there is no agent able to supply a similar amount of sediment to counteract this loss. A river supply of, at least, four times the estimated present sand supply would be necessary to compensate for this loss of sediment, and this sediment would need to be well redistributed along the entire deltaic coast (under present conditions most of the sediment supplied by the river is transported toward the northern part of the delta as a result of the river mouths orientation and dominant wave climate). Therefore, when the total coastal sediment budget is considered, the effect of a 50-cm SLR over the twenty-rst century will have a detectable inuence. Estimated shoreline erosion rates can be added, in principle, to the one estimated under present conditions assuming a linear system, i.e. both responses will not interact, allowing them to be simply added in order to get the nal coastal response. To illustrate the nal effect, Figure 6 compares the estimated coastline evolution under present conditions without the effect of RSLRand for the southern spit includ NEZ ing the effects of RSLR estimated using the model of JIME NCHEZ-ARCILLA (2004). It should be noted that in the and SA Trabucador Bar only the outer coast evolution has been simulated. The inner coast would suffer a similar behaviour

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Figure 6. Simulation of the outer coastline evolution of the Ebro delta for the year 2050 excluding and including SLR and only for the outer coast.

landward displacementdue to the action of overwash processes, but this was not considered. As already modelled by NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA (2004), larger erosion rates JIME in the outer barrier coast will result in a faster barrier landward rollover. In relative terms, it can be said that the contribution of RSLR to the overall coastline conguration at this scale is not signicant beccause of large changes induced by the existing alongshore gradients in the net longshore sediment transport rates controlling most of the observed and NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA, 1993; predicted changes (JIME NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA, 2004). The main difference JIME between the components is that whereas the longshore transportinduced changes can be positive (shoreline advance) or negative (retreat), all the changes induced by RSLR are negative, and can be thus considered as a background coastal retreat rate.

Saltwater Intrusion
Another possible effect of climatic change, in general, and SLR, in particular, would be the inuence on saltwater intrusion in the deltaic plain. A detailed description of the hydrological regime of the Ebro delta with emphasis on ground , CUSTODIO, and LOASO water uxes can be found in B AYO et al. (1992). The Ebro delta is hydrogeolog(1997) and BAYO ically a multi-aquifer system, with an upper aquifer down to 10 m that is formed by low permeability ne sand and saline with frequent hypersaline zones (see Figure 7A). The salt content of this layer is highly controlled by the input of fresh water from the intense irrigation of rice elds. This upper aquifer can be described by a thin freshwater lens over salt et al., 1992; BAYO , CUSTODIO, and LOASO 1997). water (BAYO Figure 7B shows the annual distribution of irrigation water inow into the Ebro delta related to rice cultivation. The lower Ebro river course can be functionally described as a stratied estuary with a salt wedge that depends on seasonal variations in river ow reaching the town of Amposta (the inner

Figure 7. (a) Salinity of the upper aquifer (0 to 6 m) in the Ebro delta given as water electrical conductivity in mS/cm. (b) Annual distribution of irrigation water inow into the Ebro delta. (both gures are adapted from Bayo et al., 1992).

border of the deltaic plain) under river ows of about 150 m 3/s N, 1992; SIERRA et al., 2004). (GUILLE It is expected that the increase in MSL due to RSLR will, in general, promote saltwater intrusion into the aquifer system (CUR, 1993; LINDH, 1992). Figure 8 schematises the effect of SLR into an unconned coastal aquifer. In the Ebro delta, because the upper aquifer can be characterised by a very thin freshwater lens over saltwater, the concept of saltwater intrusion is not correct as the saltwater is already present. Moreover, in this case, groundwater recharge is not natural but human induced via the irrigation of rice elds. Assuming then that the effect of SLR would be a decrease of fresh groundwater volume; this should be mainly due to

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coastline changes due to SLR (which were signicantly below those induced by present coastal processes in erosive stretches), the inuence of coastal retreat on the horizontal movement of the salt wedge in the aquifer is mainly due to present coastal processes and not to SLR.

EFFECTS OF WAVE CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON THE EBRO DELTA COAST

As previously mentioned, one possible climatic change could be a variation in the wave climate acting on the coast. Although no data exist to support such changes, it is interesting to analyse the coastal evolution under different wave climate scenarios (considering a change in wave directionality and/or wave energy) in order to assess vulnerability to this kind of variation. The effects of such changes are measured in terms of variations in local coastal evolution. Because the coastal evolution of the Ebro delta has been mainly related to the net longshore sediment transport pattern that controls NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARthe observed coastal reshaping (JIME NEZ et al., 1997), the effects are measured CILLA, 1993; JIME in terms of coastal reshaping changes with respect to current conditions. In order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes, the NEZ and SA NCHEZ-ARCILLA (2004) was emmodel of JIME ployed using different scenarios of wave climate. The analysis focuses on changes in coastal behaviour of the southern spit of the Ebro delta as it is a geomorphological feature fully controlled by the existence of a gradient in longshore sediment transport and consequently is sensitive to any variation in wave climate.

Figure 8. Effects of SLR in an unconned aquifer (after Oude Essink, Boekelman, and Bosters, 1993).

shoreline retreat (see Figure 8). It has to be taken into account that most of the coastal zone surrounding the deltaic plain is currently retreating, with erosion rates much larger than those expected to be induced by SLR. In both cases, the decrease of the fresh groundwater volume must be considered as a potential outcome in the sense that the recharge of the aquifer in the Ebro delta is almost completely controlled by the water inow during irrigation of the rice paddies. Deltaic areas prone to be affected would be those classied as risk level 1 and 2 areas (with respect to the risk of inundation, see Figure 5) assuming that they were inundated. Finally, the existence of a SLR would induce (assuming a steady river ow regime) an upstream migration of the position of the salt wedge in the river course. This migration, x, can be approximated by Equation 1:

Changes in Wave Directionality

The rst analysed effect was the inuence of changes in the directional wave distribution. At present, the wave climatein morphological termscan be schematised for longshore sediment transport effects using a representative mor NEZ phological wave climate with an eastern direction (JIME et al., 1997). JIMENEZ and SANCHEZ-ARCILLA (2004) modelled the long-term Ebro delta coast evolution using an effective wave direction of 100 (see Figure 9), which was the basis for the simulation of the coastal evolution presented in Figure 6. Possible changes in wave-induced coastal evolution were analysed considering two different scenarios of wave direction corresponding to 10 shifts: (i) A shift of the main wave direction toward the north, resulting in an effective direction of 90 (scenario W0D90) (ii) A shift toward the south, resulting in an effective wave direction of 110 (scenario W0D110) Variations in wave height were not considered in either scenario. The resultant coastal conguration by the year 2050 under both scenarios as well as under present conditions can be seen in Figure 9. If the effects are measured relative to the evolution under present conditions, the main results are a change in the position of the deposition area (the apex of the spit), although the overall behaviour remains similar.

x S/Ib

(1)

where S is the increase in sea level and Ib is the bottom slope of the river (OUDE ESSINK, BOEKELMAN, and BOSTERS, 1993). Assuming that the Ebro River mean bottom gradient N, 1992), a SLR for the year 2100 is about 0.0004% (GUILLE of 0.48 cm would induce an upstream shift of the salt wedge of about 1.1 km/y. A more detailed analysis for varying liquid discharge regimes can be found in SIERRA et al. (2004). These estimations are a simplication of the problem because they do not consider the ability of the river to react to the SLR. For a morphologically active river, the increase in water depth (for a constant river ow) would induce an increase in the deposition of sediment along the river course in such a way that the riverbed would maintain its relative depth with respect to the new sea level. The more pronounced the riverbed morphological response, the smaller the salt wedge shift. In summary, the effects of SLR on the salt intrusion in the Ebro delta groundwater, although non-negligible, can be considered as a second-order effect in comparison with the effects of the freshwater regime inside the delta, which largely controls this process. For saltwater intrusion, the most important changes will be related to management practices (e.g., irrigation) and not to SLR. Moreover, as seen when analysing

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Figure 9. Simulated coastal conguration by the year 2050 under different wave direction scenarios.

Figure 10. Simulated coastal conguration by the year 2050 under different wave height scenarios (after Jime nez and Sa nchez-Arcilla, 2004).

Changes in Wave Height

The possible changes in coastal evolution were analysed in relation to two different wave height scenarios: (i) An increase of 10% in wave height (scenario W10D0) (ii) A decrease of 10% in wave height (scenario W-10D0) Variations in wave direction were not considered in either scenario. The coastal conguration by the year 2050 under both scenarios as well as under present conditions can be seen in Figure 10. Compared to the evolution under current conditions, it can be seen that the type of evolution is not affected because coastal stretches suffering erosion and/or accretion show the same evolutionary behaviour irrespective of the scenario considered. The only difference is in the magnitude of these changes. As expected, scenario W10D0 induces larger changes than those under current conditions (both accretive and erosive) as the volume and surface changes are proportional to the gradient of the net longshore sediment transport that, in turn, is proportional to gradients in H2.5 (H being the representative wave height). On the other hand, scenario W10D0 induces smaller changes than under current conditions (both erosive and accretive). In addition to these longshore transportinduced changes, there are also potential cross-shore variations. As wave height increases, the probability of the occurrence of erosive processes also increases; a decrease in wave height would similarly produce a decrease in erosive processes. These potential changes affect both the position (adding a new contribution to that due to longshore-induced changes) and the prole of the shoreline. For scenario W10D0, an average prole with a milder slope (mainly in the surf zone) should be expected because of the potential increase in erosive processes, whereas for scenario W-10D0, a steeper prole would result.

no local data nor a global scenario (derived from models for the Mediterranean basin) exist to quantify or even support such a variation, it is interesting to assess potential coastal impacts under this hypothetical scenario, at least from a qualitative point of view. An increase in wave storminess would increase the frequency of occurrence of episodic events. These would result in morphological changes induced by energetic hydrodynamic conditions with a long return period. Although acting on the entire deltaic coast, their most important effectscharacterised by large coastal erosion responseswould occur in areas sensitive to this kind of event (see risk level 1 areas in Figure 11), i.e., barrier coasts and beaches with a limited subaerial NEZ et al., 1997; SA NCHEZ-ARarea backed by lagoons (JIME NEZ, 1994). CILLA and JIME

Changes in the Number of Storms

As previously mentioned, another possible climatic change factor could be an increase in the number of storms. Although
Figure 11. Coastal stretches more sensitive to an increase in wave storminess.

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Two main kinds of morphological responses, associated with highly energetic wave storms, can be found along the Ebro delta coast: (i) Breaching events in barrier beaches and in beaches with a small subaerial part backed by lagoons/ponds (ii) Intense erosiondue both to longshore and cross-shore transportsalong the entire deltaic coast The rst process implies that overwash events increase in intensity, removing a large amount of sediment from the outer coast and transporting it toward the backbarrier during each event. Overwash processes, thus, become a sediment sink for the outer coast sediment budget and a sediment source for the backbarrier coast. A numerical analysis of the effects of a variation in storminess on overwash transport and rollover rates along the Tra NEZ and bucador barrier beach can be found in JIME NCHEZ-ARCILLA (2004). The main characteristics of these SA processes are that they usually take place over a few days (the temporal scale of such energetic wave storms) and that an amount of sediment equivalent to that transported during several normal (i.e., nonbreaching) years is mobilised. Breaches can recover by natural means (both longshore and cross-shore sediment transport) but at a relatively slow rate. This implies that if breaching events become more frequent, this slow recovery process can be inefcient in the long-term, and breaches will have a longer residence time. This longer presence can affect adjacent coastal stretches as breaches act as sediment sinks causing more erosion along down-coast beaches. This is the case for coastal stretches mainly dominated by longshore sediment transport and are dened as risk level 2 areas in Figure 11. Additionally, the larger the probability of breach occurrance, the larger the probability of hinterland ooding/inundation (risk level 2 areas in Figure 5).

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Although, in principle, this study of the coastal fringe could appear as a rather limited approach to studying the effects of climatic change on the Ebro delta, the coastal zone is the main element that absorbs any impacts of climate change. The Ebro delta plain is essentially a regulated system, and the role of the Ebro River is limited by current catchment management. For the main climatologically induced changes affecting deltaic behaviourrainfall variation, decrease in vegetation cover, SLR, increase in storminess, and variation in meteohydrodynamic characteristicsthe last three become the most important for the Ebro delta because the rst two will be signicantly damped by existing and future catchment water management plans. Moreover, as the delta plain becomes more regulated (e.g., construction of levees, dikes, and channels for irrigation and agricultural purposes), sedimentation and soil formation processes will be further reduced. On the other hand, the reduction processes will be unaffected by management policies unless they are related to the coastal zone. It can be argued that under the present management scenario, climate change impacts will affect the Ebro delta coast earlier than other coasts in Catalonia. In effect, the

coastal fringe will become the frontier between the populated, regulated delta plain and the effects of climatic change. This implies that, although the Ebro deltaic plain is largely used for agriculture and has a high ecological value, changes in the coastal zone will largely control socioeconomic and ecological variations in the whole deltaic area. Some of these variations will directly affect activities and values located in the coastal zone, and the remaining ones will be the result of interactions between the coastal zone and the hinterland (e.g., NCHEZ-ARCILLA, and JIME NEZ, 2007). In OTVALDEMORO, SA TER, VAN DER VEEN, and DE VRIEND (1996) and OTTER (2000), a rst approach to the potential socioeconomic effects NCHEZ-ARCILLA, of SLR on the Ebro delta was presented. SA JIMENEZ, and VALDEMORO (1998) and, recently, VALDEMORO (2005) estimated RSLR effects on the local deltaic economy and natural values measured in terms of deltaic surface dedicated to agriculture and belonging to the Natural Park, respectively. The main characteristic of such analyses is that they consider the whole deltaic surface below 0.5 m elevation, in addition to the coastal areas analysed in this paper. The analyses carried out were not an impact evaluation but rather an estimation of the potential implications of ooding for deltaic land below a given level. When considering RSLR-induced physical impacts on the Ebro delta, some interesting points arise from the analysis. For ooding/inundation of deltaic areas, although the deltaic surface below the projected level (0.5 m) is relatively large, the areas prone to be directly inundated would be more restricted (see Figure 5). As it was mentioned before, this is mainly due to the presence of an active coastal zone that is assumed to react dynamically to a given RSLR. Here, we consider the areas prone to be instantaneously inundated under the projected level as the deltaic surface that has a direct connection to the sea or those areas adjacent to the coast and fronted by beaches sensitive to storm action. These beaches have experienced breaching events during the last decade and, because of this, it is considered that the zones behind them and below the projected level are at risk, although at a lower level. Another direct impact of SLR will be the decrease of return periods of maximum water levels. This decrease is important in the Ebro delta coast because of the mild slope of the curve of yearly maximum water levels (Figure 4) (cf. NICHOLLS, HOOZEMANS, and MARCHAND, 1999). Theoretically, this would imply that the frequency of ooding will increase, although the real increase will depend on the difference between SLR and the adaptive capacity of the Ebro delta. This means that if the coastal zone reacts to SLR by maintaining its relative height with respect to MSL, there will not be any effective decrease of return periods, whereas for a static deltaic response, the decrease of return periods will be maximum. A rst estimation of the Ebro delta coastal response taking into account SLR has been presented that results in a sediment loss from the inner part of the coastal zone of approximately 3.9 m3/m/y. This sediment would be eroded from the inner part of the prole and transported and deposited on the lower shoreface to maintain the equilibrium prole with respect to MSL (following the approach of the Bruun Rule). No sediment source currently exists to compensate for this

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loss. If the Ebro River is considered as a potential source, the river would need to supply at least four times the present estimated sand transport to the coast. Moreover, this supply would have to be well distributed along the deltaic coast whereas, at present, the river supply is mainly restricted to the northern section of the delta. If the SLR-induced coastal retreat is considered, the estimated rate is rather small when compared to present coastal evolution rates. Thus, in relative terms, it can be considered as negligible (see Figure 6). The main difference is that, although small, the induced coastal response is erosive, implying the generation of a background erosion rate along the entire coast. Finally, it is usually considered that SLR will enhance salinity intrusion in low-lying coasts. However, in the case of the Ebro delta, the upper aquifer is mainly composed of saltwater with a thin freshwater lens in the upper part. The size of this layer is conditioned by deltaic plain irrigation (for rice production), and, thus, although SLR can affect groundwater salinity, in the Ebro delta the strongest inuence will be from management practices (water from irrigation). The effect of SLR will be therefore restricted to areas prone to be inundated by the sea. Additionally, SLR will also induce an upstream migration of the salt wedge in the Ebro river (assuming a steady river ow regime) that will depend on the morphological response capacity of the riverbed to maintain relative water depths. The last climatological variables considered were related to a variation in wave climate (wave height and direction as well as an increase in storminess). The rst two effects changes in wave height and directionwould induce a change in the present coastal reshaping (for the selected scenarios) (see Figures 9 and 10) although maintaining the same evolutive behaviour. The increase in wave storminess will augment the probability of occurrence of episodic events, such as breaching, especially in sensitive areas like barrier beaches, which can alter the long-term behaviour of these coastal stretches due to the difference between the speed of erosional and accretional responses. Additionally, some areas can be indirectly affected, specially the downstream beaches adjacent to areas prone to breaching because of the corresponding generation of sediment sinks (Figure 11) for the outer coast. As a nal point, it should be stressed that most of the analyses and conclusions presented here are exploratory estimates including informed judgement where necessary. This limitation can only be overcome with an advance in knowledge on underlying processes, particularly for decadal time scales. This, in turn, requires long-term and accurate measurements of suitable eld data.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This paper stems from the scientic discussions within the SURVAS project. It has also beneted from a number of national and international research projects. Among the chronologically last ones, the FLOODsite (GOCE-CT-2004505420) and PREVIMED (REN200203415) projects should be mentioned. The second author (J.A.J.) was partly supported by the University Research Promotion Award for Young Researchers of the Government of Catalonia.

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RESUMEN Se presenta una estima preliminar de las implicaciones del cambio clima tico en la costa del delta del Ebro (costa espan ola mediterra nea) basada en el ana lisis de co mo el clima y otros factores afectara n los factores impulsores que controlan los procesos de formacio n y reduccio n actuantes en esta costa. Los procesos de formacio n son ba sicamente de origen uvial y consisten en el aporte de sedimento (y agua dulce). Los procesos de reduccio n son principalmente de origen marino e incluyen incremento en la frecuencia e intensidad de inundaciones, disminucio n en el per odo de retorno de eventos extremos, erosio n costera, intrusio n salina y cambios en el clima mar timo (altura de ola, direccio n y frecuencia de temporales). Los principales cambios de origen clima tico que afectan el delta del Ebro son de origen marino, dado que los cambios de origen uvial quedaran amortiguados e incluso eliminados por las obras de regulacio n existentes en la cuenca. Debido a ello, los procesos de formacio n han sido pra cticamente eliminados mientras que los procesos de reduccio n no se ven afectados por las pol ticas de gestio n del territorio, a menos que se centren en la zona costera. Debido a la morfolog a deltaica, el ascenso relativo del nivel del mar (RSLR) es el peligro potencial ma s importante de origen clima tico para el delta. As , si consideramos la inundacio n de las zonas deltaicas debido al RSLR para un determinado nivel (por ejemplo 0.5m), aunque la supercie del delta por debajo de dicho nivel pueda ser relativamente grande, los impactos sera n modulados por la proteccio n que ofrece una zona costera activa que es capaz de responder/reaccionar al RSLR. Otro efecto directo asociado al RSLR sera la disminucio n de los per odos de retorno de los niveles de mar ma ximos, los cuales debido al clima de la zona son muy signicantes. Finalmente, el retroceso estimado en la l nea de orilla debido al RSLR aunque es pequen o cuando se compara con las actuales tasas de evolucio n costera, debe ser tenido en cuenta dado que ellas actuara n como una erosio n adicional de base que actuara a lo largo de toda la costa.

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