Available online at http://scik.org Environment, Ecology & Management, 1 (2012), No.

1, 12-20

THE IMPACTS OF EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS ON AVIATION

IDOWU INNOCENT ABBAS1, *, JAMES KAYODE OJO2 AND P.A. IGBRU2
1

Department of Geography, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria 810001, Nigeria

2

Nigerian College of Aviation Technology, Zaria 810001, Nigeria

Abstract: Although many are seeking a more sustainable aviation system through the development of many ingenious devices, improvement in aircraft design, power plants, radio aids and navigation techniques but less attention has been given to the potential impacts of climate change on air safety. This paper therefore focuses on the implications of climate change/extreme episodic events (wind shear, lightning, thunderstorm, snowstorm, and sandstorm) on flight operations. The study reveals air crashes that were connected to these events and also analyzed the main causes of fatal accidents, mitigation and adaptation strategies. Keywords: climate; weather; wind shear, Turbulence

1. Introduction
Climate change is a major global issue of common concern, affecting environment and development. In fact, according to [1], the recent climate variation and change brought about by global warming (a major aspect of climate change) is presently giving a lot of concern to the aviation industry. Also according to [4], several airlines have been rendered moribund and some even made to be rendering partial services as a result of impacts of these extreme weather events.
---------------*Corresponding author Received June 11, 2012 12

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EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS ON AVIATION

Air transportation as of today is one of the major players of economic development in the world and in Nigeria in particular, as there would always be a need to collect, assemble, transfer and distribute people and goods from one place to another within the country and especially across the countries [1]. Extreme weather and climate events have been classified in to three categories - thermal, moisture and aerodynamic events [2]. It is pertinent to note that atmosphere which serves as a medium through which aircrafts fly is also the same medium (troposphere) in which weather occurs. Therefore the knowledge and analysis of influence of weather on flight operations become so imperative if safety is to be ensured in the industry.

2. Causes of Air Accidents

Several factors are usually responsible for plane crashes. Most common of these factors are weather related. Table 1 shows all the causes of fatal accidents in plane from 1950 to date. Table 1: Causes of Fatal Accidents by Decades (Percentage) Cause Pilot- Error Pilot-Error(weather related) Pilot Error(mechanical related) Other Human Error Weather Mechanical Failure Sabotage Other Causes 16 21 5 8 10 20 5 2 9 13 23 11 2 6 15 21 13 1 8 9 21 10 0 8 9 28 9 1 39 72 134 53 6 6% 12% 22% 9% 2% 7 5 4 2 4 3 25 4% 1950 40 11 1960 32 18 1970 24 14 1980 25 17 1990 27 21 2000 26 17 Total 174 98 Percentage 29% 16%

Total Source: [6]

601

100%

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IDOWU INNOCENT ABBAS1, *, JAMES KAYODE OJO2 AND P.A. IGBRU2

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Pilot error (weather related) represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by weather related phenomena. "Pilot error (mechanical related)" represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by some type of mechanical failure. "Other human error" includes air traffic controller errors, improper loading of aircraft, fuel contamination and improper maintenance procedures. Sabotage includes explosive devices, shoot downs and hijackings. "Total pilot error" is therefore the sum total of all the three types of errors. Where there were multiple causes attributed to a plane crash, the most prominent cause is always attributed as the cause [5]. Table 1 shows 1300 fatal accidents involving Commercial aircraft world-wide from 1950 through 2009 for which specific cause is known. It is shown that fatal accidents that occurred as a result of weather is about 12% while those that occurred as a result of pilot error that were weather related is 16%. Altogether there were about 28% of fatal accidents that occurred as a result of weather related error.
Fatal accidents pilot error- weather related 1950-2009
22

20

18
Percentage

Fatal accidents pilot error - weather related 16 Linear (Fatal accidents pilot error - weather related)

14

12

10 1950* 1960* 1970* Year 1980* 1990* 2000*

Figure 1: Fatal accidents pilot error-weather related 1950-2009. Source: [6]

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EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS ON AVIATION

It can be observed from figure 1 that fatal accidents which occurred from 1950 to 2000 in which the cause was known to be pilot error that is weather related has been increasing from average of 13% in 1950 to about 19% in 2000. The consequences of these are alarming to aviation industry, a several precious lives have been lost and billions worth of investments have been destroyed. No wonder some airlines have completely short down their operations while some are really struggling to survive as result of the ugly incidents of weather on flight operations.

Fatal accidents as a result of weather 35

30

Percentage

Fatal accidents as a result of weather Linear (Fatal accidents as a result of weather)

25

20 1950* 1960* 1970* Year 1980* 1990* 2000*

Figure 2: Fatal accidents due to weather error. Source: [6] Figure 2 shows that the linear trend of fatal accidents that have occurred from 1950 to 2000 due to the combination of pilot-error (weather related) and weather itself has slightly been increasing from about 26% to about 32%. The impacts have been catastrophic as bread winners of some great families have be killed prematurely, destiny of some have been nipped in the bud while the memories of some families over the lost soul(s) will continue to linger in their minds as they grapple for survival.

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Figure 3: Percentage of accidents/fatalities at different Phases of flight. Source: [6]

3. Weather Related Crashes

Of all the causes of plane crashes, this section will only treat those that are weather related especially as concern wind shear and associated weather phenomenon. Table 2: Air Crashes linked with Wind shear Phenomenon at Critical Phases of Flight Year 1956 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977 1979 1982 Flight No/Location Boac 252/773 Kano, Nigeria Pam Am 806 CONT 426 Eastern 66,JFK, NY Royal Jordan 600, Doha, Qatar Allegery 121 Philadelphia CONT 63,Tuscon, AZ Eastern 693 Atlanta, GA(near crash) Pan Am759, New Orleans, LA Take-off Landing 15 12 15 86 0 0 Injured 11 Death 32 96 0 112 45 0 0 0 152

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1984 1985 1989 1994 2005 Total

USAir183Detroit,MI (A/c damaged) Delta 191, Dallas, TX Faro, Portugal US Air, Chalotte, NC Sosoliso Air, Nigeria

0 134 54 37 109

139

662

Source: [3] Table 2 shows that 662 people have lost their lives as a result of the effect of wind shear alone on flight while 139 people have been seriously injured considering the report of air crashes linked with wind shear from 1956 to 2005. Table.3: Air crashes linked with Thunderstorm (Turbulence) Phenomenon. Date 13/3/79 12/4/80 27/7/81 9/7/82 4/4/87 21/12/92 26/7/93 2/7/94 9/8/95 8/5/97 10/10/97 1/6/99 23/8/05 Airline Jordanian TransBrazil Aero Mexico Pan AM Garuda Continental Martin Air Asiana US Air Aviateca China Southern Austral Lineas American Tans Total Source: [3] Table 3 reveals that 777 fatalities have been recorded that were connected to impact of turbulence in thunderstorm on flight from 1979 to 2005. This turbulence hazard is one of the
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Parameter Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence Turbulence

Fatalities 45 55 50 145 27 69 68 37 65 35 74 11 96 777

IDOWU INNOCENT ABBAS1, *, JAMES KAYODE OJO2 AND P.A. IGBRU2

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most potent hazards that are responsible for most of the fatalities in the world. It is as shown in figure 4. Table 4: Air Crashes linked with thunderstorm (Lightning) Phenomenon Year 1929 1938 1940 1951 Airline Effects

Trans Cons Air Transport Struck by lightning during thunderstorm LOT Penn Central AL Alitalia Struck by lightning Disabled pilot Lightning ignited mixture of air and fuel fumes in the fuel tank

1959

Trans World AL

Ignition of gasoline vapors emanating from the fuel tank vent pipes by static discharge.

1961 1962 1963 1963

Aerolineas Argentinas LOT Pan American Air Air Inter

Stuck by lightning and extreme turbulence Stalled after being struck by lightning. Lightning induced ignition of fuel tank vapor Flash of lightning dazzling the crew causing temporary blindness.

1967 1971

Iran Air Force Lineas Aereas Nac.

Crashed after being struck by lightning Lightning caused fire which led to the separation of the right wing

1976

Iran Air Force

Lightning caused an explosion in the No.1 fuel tank which caused the left wing to fail

1980 1988

Kuwait Air Force NFD

Struck by lightning Struck by lightning and suffered a complete electrical failure

2000

Wuhan AL

Struck by lightning causing the plane to explode and crash

2001 2002

Flightline Ocean Airline

Electrical power was lost following a lightning strike Struck by lightning causing loss of Artificial Horizon and Gyro-Compasses.

Source: [6]

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Figure 4: Effect of lightning on Flight operations. Source: [3]

4. Conclusion

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IDOWU INNOCENT ABBAS1, *, JAMES KAYODE OJO2 AND P.A. IGBRU2

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Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of development policies, plans, strategies and programmes most especially in Aviation industry in Nigeria looking at the ways people who could have contributed immensely to the development of the nations economy have lost their lives to the impact of extreme episodic climate change to flight operations. All personnel in the industry should be made to undergo training on impact of weather on flight operations. When all and sundry fully understand the concept of episodic weather events and their implications on flight operations, pilots especially would no longer risk entering the zones where there are bad weather and jettison the idea of relying on wealth of experience at their disposal. By this air crashes linked with pilot-error caused by weather can be reduced if not totally eliminated.
REFERENCES [1] I.I. Abbas, K.J. Ojo, Climate change and air transportation safety, in Proceedings of the National Conference on Climate Change and the Nigerian Environment, 2009, pp. 447-458 [2] J.N. Bello, Extreme weather and climate events: implications for water resources, in: International Conference on the Impacts of Extreme Weather and Climate on Socio-Economic Development in Africa, Akure, 2007. [3] FAAR: Federal Aviation Authourity Record of Air Crashes 1950-2009, available online

at:http://www.faa.gov/data_research/accident_incident/ [4] The World Bank Research Program 2008-2009: Abstract of Current Studies, at www.worldbank.org [5] I. Jeppesen, Metreorology: JAA ATPL Training Vol. 1, 2004 pp 50-63 [6] Plane Crash Information, available online at:http//www.planecrashinfo.com