Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2012apr TDM McDaniel
2012apr TDM McDaniel
UsesofIEEE1366and
CatastrophicDays
JohnMcDaniel
ViceChair DistributionReliabilityWG
y
LeadSeniorEngineer NationalGrid
Canformasolidbasisforreviewof
operationaleffectiveness,decisionmaking
andpolicymaking.
Moreconsistentbenchmarking.
SAIDIwaschosenastheindicator
becauseitissizeindependentand
itisthebestindicatorofsystemstressesbeyondthose
thatutilitysstaff,buildanddesigntominimize.
Collect values of daily SAIDI for five sequential years ending on the last day of the last complete
reporting period. If fewer than five years of historical data are available, use all available historical
d t
data
2.
If any day in the data set has a value of zero for SAIDI, do not include that day in the analysis.
3
3.
Take the natural logarithm (ln) of each daily SAIDI value in the data set
set.
4.
Find (Alpha), the average of the logarithms (also known as the log-average) of the data set.
5.
6.
Compute the major event day threshold, TMED, using the equation:
TMED e 2.5
7.
Any day with daily SAIDI greater than the threshold value TMED that occurs during the subsequent
reporting period is classified as a major event day.
A
Activitiesthatoccuronmajoreventdays
i ii h
j
d
shouldbeseparatelyanalyzedandreported.
N thi i E l d d!!
NothingisExcluded!!
Catastrophic Days
CatastrophicDays
Experience
Experiencewithcertaincompanies
with certain companies
applicationofIEEEStd.1366foundthat
unusually large events (catastrophic)
unusuallylargeevents(
catastrophic )leadto
lead to
changesintmed whichoftenimpactthenext5
years of underlying SAIDI
yearsofunderlyingSAIDI
DistributionReliabilityWGformedaTask
Force to investigate
Forcetoinvestigate
Catastrophic TF Goals
CatastrophicTFGoals
Development
Developmentofamethodtohandle
of a method to handle
significantoutlierscouldimprovethemajor
eventthresholdcalculationprocess
Severalmethodswereproposed
BetaVariables(Twooriginallycontemplated)
BoxandWhiskers
Mission
To
Todevelopamethodforhandlingextreme
develop a method for handling extreme
outlierdaystoensurethatsubsequent
underlying performance is reflective of real
underlyingperformanceisreflectiveofreal
performance,andisnottaintedbythe
extreme outliers
extremeoutliers
Methods Evaluated
MethodsEvaluated
1)IEEEStd.1366
)
Leavethedefinitionasitcurrentlystands
2)BoufordheuristicMethod
Apply
Apply4.15
4.15 toestablishtheexistenceofacatastrophicday,whichis
to establish the existence of a catastrophic day, which is
removedfromthedataset;thereafter,apply2.5 methodasusual
3)StatisticalBoxnWhiskersmethod
Evaluate
Evaluatethe5yearperiodusingboxandwhiskers,lookingfor
the 5 year period using box and whiskers, looking for
outliers(bothhighandlow)inexcessof3timestheinnerquartile
range,removeanyhighorlowoutliersfromthedataset;thereafter,
apply2.5 methodasusual
Note:Inthepast,othermethods,includingrobustestimation
wereconsidered
Process
Identify
Identifycompanieswithcatastrophicdays
companies with catastrophic days
Evaluatetheimpactofthesedays,onSAIDI,
applying the proposed methods
applyingtheproposedmethods
Identifycompanieswithnocatastrophicdays
Incorporatethemintothetotalpopulation
Incorporate them into the total population
beingevaluated
ReviewunderlyingSAIDI,impactont
Review underlying SAIDI impact on tmedd,etc.
etc
foreachcompanyrepresented
Findings
Catastrophic
CatastrophiceventdaysDOexistwithinthe
event days DO exist within the
dataandholdthepotentialfornotproperly
signalingunderlyingSAIDI,particularlyin
subsequentyearsaftertheevent
Anoutlierhandlingmethodneedstobe
developed
BothBoufordandBoxnWhiskersidentify
outliers,howeverBoufordappearstohandle
mostconsistentlyandrationally
1993
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2001
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2007
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2000
2002
2004
2006
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2000
2002
2004
2006
Case Studies
Underlying
IEEE
U57
JB
B&W
MajorEvent
1000
800
IEEE
U94
CatastrophicEvent
B&W
Tmed
1200
120
600
60
400
40
200
20
0
0
JB
Conclusions
The
TheTaskForcefindsthatnoneofthe
Task Force finds that none of the
methodsidentifiedtohandlecatastrophic
daysisabletoconsistentlyoperate
reasonablyacrossalldatasetstested
TheTaskForcerecommendsthatanaddition
inthestandardineitherSection6.3orthe
Annexbeincludedtoinformstandardusers
abouttheissue
b
h i
NewSection6.3in1366
When using daily SAIDI and the 2.5 method, there is an assumption that the distribution of the
natural log values will most likely resembles a Gaussian distribution, namely a bell-shaped curve.
As companies have used this method,
method a certain number of them have experienced large-scale
events (such as hurricanes or ice storms) that result in unusually sizable daily SAIDI values. The
events that give rise to these particular days, considered catastrophic events, have a low
probability of occurring. However, the extremely large daily SAIDI values may tend to skew the
distribution of performance toward the right,
right causing a shift of the average of the data set and an
increase in its standard deviation. Large daily SAIDI values, caused by catastrophic events, will
exist in the data set for five years and could cause a relatively minor upward shift in the resulting
reliability metric trends. While significant study was undertaken to develop objective methods for
indentifying and processing catastrophic events (in order to eliminate the noted effect on the
reliability trend), the methods that were developed, in order to be universally applied, caused, for
many utilities, catastrophic events to occur far too often to accept as being reasonable. In addition,
the elimination of catastrophic events from the calculation of the major event threshold caused, in
some utilities,
utilities a rather large increase of days identified as Major Event Days in the following five
years. It is recommended that the identification and processing of catastrophic events for reliability
purposes should be determined on an individual company basis by regulators and utilities, since no
objective method has been devised that can be applied universally to achieve acceptable results.
17
2010 Benchmarking
2010Benchmarking
Following
FollowingslidesarefromtheDistribution
slides are from the Distribution
ReliabilityWG2010Benchmarkingsurvey
SurveyutilizesIEEEStd1366includingMED
Survey utilizes IEEE Std 1366 including MED
definition
Benchmarking
DataisNeverexactlythesame!
Data is Never exactly the same!
Twomainreasonsfordifferences:
DataCollectionProcess/SystemDifferences
Data Collection Process/System Differences
ExclusionCriteriaDifferences(Basis)
IEEEStd.1366
IEEE Std 1366
addressesdatabasisissuesbyclearlydefiningthe
rules.
ItDOESNOT addressthedatacollectionissues
ThisisbeingaddressedbyIEEEP1782
Classification of Respondents
ClassificationofRespondents
Urban,Suburban,Rural
Rural<=50cust/mi(31cust/km)
Rural <= 50 cust/mi (31 cust/km)
Suburban>50cust/mi<150cust/mi
Urban>=150cust/mi(93cust/km)
2010Survey
10Urbancompanies
18Suburbancompanies
28Ruralcompanies
32 Evenly blended companies
32Evenlyblendedcompanies
19Unclassifiedcompanies
20
Classification of Respondents
ClassificationofRespondents
78,634,730customersrepresentedinUS&
Canada
Small,Medium,Large
Small=<100,000customers
Small =< 100 000 customers
Medium>100,000and<1,000,000customers
Large>=1Mcustomers
2010Survey
26Smallcompanies
56Mediumcompanies
27Largecompanies
21
Respondents
Morethan200 Companieshaverespondedatsometime
2010Survey
20 0 S
106 uniqueentriesrespondedin2010;109totalentriesin
2010
0
1
2
3
4
22
0
1
2
3
4
0
1
2
3
4
23
R i 1:
Region
1 N
Northeast
th
t
Midwest: 27
Participants
Region 2: Mid-Atlantic
Northwest: 15
Participants
Region 3: Southeast
Southwest: 11
Participants
Region 4: Midwest
Region 7: Northwest
Mid-Atlantic:
24 Participants
South: 10
Participants
Region 5: Southwest
Region 6: South
Northeast: 13
Participants
Region
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Color
Black
Orange
Yellow
Green
Light Blue
Dark Blue
Purple
Red
Name
# Co
Spans states
3
Northeast
13
MidAtlantic
24
Southeast
6
Midwest
27
Southwest
11
South
10
Northwest
15
2010 Total
109
Southeast : 6
Participants
24
0
Utility
25
U127
U134
26
U12
U57
4th Quartile
U57
U76
U104
U119
400
U134
U119
300
U76
U64
U106
U62
U22
U85
U60
U19
U131
U130
U15
U53
U121
U51
U108
U125
U47
U16
U84
U17
U44
U169
U54
U192
U80
U87
U20
U194
U111
U171
U23
U63
U129
1st Quartile
U1
U195
U157
U110
U67
U123
U55
U100
U82
U56
U198
U170
U41
U172
U21
U196
U197
3dQ
3rd
Quartile
til
U103
U177
U46
U161
U197
U137
U196
U166
6
U21
U173
3
U172
2
U164
4
U41
U189
9
U170
0
U16
63
U198
24
U2
U5
56
U109
82
U8
U6
U100
U133
U55
U
U7
U
U123
U162
U67
U199
U110
U68
U157
U146
U195
U165
U1
U29
U129
U95
U63
U90
U23
U14
U171
U88
U111
U120
U194
U49
U20
U191
U87
U83
U80
U10
U192
U38
U54
U65
U169
U128
U44
U168
U17
U9
U84
U8
U16
U132
U47
U200
U125
U159
U108
U25
U51
U58
U121
U117
U53
U4
U15
U52
U130
U160
U131
U167
U19
U40
U60
U116
U85
U43
U22
U61
U62
U12
U106
U94
U64
U114
4
100
U46
200
U103
Minutes
M
600
500
2nd Quartile
2nd Quartile
1.5
0.5
0
U177
7
U4
46
U2
21
U41
U166
U162
U172
U164
U197
U15
U173
U82
U137
U146
U128
U29
U56
U55
U49
U170
U63
U103
U38
U194
U169
U189
U161
U6
U67
U199
U7
U196
U100
U68
U47
U20
U198
U108
U80
U106
U110
U24
U109
U23
U192
U88
U53
U1
U133
U163
U129
U87
U4
U195
U43
U83
U54
U51
U120
U168
U16
U9
U19
U95
U111
U165
U10
U44
U40
U191
U25
U159
U132
U58
U14
U17
U160
U131
U123
U85
U60
U90
U167
U200
U125
U121
U65
U117
U8
U94
U171
U84
U116
U61
U134
U119
U22
U12
U130
U127
U62
14
U11
U5
52
U177
U46
U21
U41
U166
U162
U172
U164
U197
U15
U173
U82
U137
U146
U128
U29
U56
U55
U49
U170
U63
U103
U38
U194
U169
U189
U161
U6
U67
U199
U7
U196
U100
U68
U47
U20
U198
U108
U80
U106
U110
U24
U109
U23
U192
U88
U53
U1
U133
U163
U129
U87
U4
U195
U43
U83
U54
U51
U120
U168
U16
U9
U19
U95
U111
U165
U10
U44
U40
U191
U25
U159
U132
U58
U14
U17
U160
U131
U123
U85
U60
U90
U167
U200
U125
U121
U65
U117
U8
U94
U171
U84
U116
U61
U134
U119
U22
U12
U130
U127
U62
U114
U52
U126
U104
U76
U64
U57
U157
Interruptions
2.5
U126
U104
U76
3
3rd Quartile
U64
U57
5
U157
4.5
4th Quartile
3.5
1st Quartile
Utility
26
0
U157
U103
U161
U196
U123
U163
U137
U177
U189
U197
U133
U170
U24
U198
U109
U90
U46
U171
U173
U100
U52
U64
U165
U14
U6
U172
U164
U95
U110
U65
U7
U195
U84
U166
U56
U130
U1
U8
U191
U68
U129
U55
U41
U199
U67
U111
U17
U10
U82
U120
U125
U200
U44
U117
U121
U83
U23
U88
U54
U132
U9
U21
U76
U62
U87
U168
U22
U167
U159
U104
U58
U160
U25
U131
U16
U192
U114
U146
U116
U20
U60
U61
U80
U12
U63
U29
U40
U51
U162
U57
U85
U19
U194
U4
U53
U94
U49
U169
U38
U108
U47
U128
U43
U126
U119
U127
U106
U134
U15
U
U157
U103
Minutes
150
3rd Quartile
2nd Quartile
100
50
U161
U196
U123
U163
U137
U177
U189
U197
U133
U170
U24
U198
U109
U90
U46
U171
U173
U100
U52
U64
U165
U14
U6
U172
2
U164
4
U95
5
U110
U65
5
U7
U19
95
U84
4
U166
U5
56
U130
U1
U8
8
U191
U68
U
U129
U
U55
U
U41
U
U199
U
U67
U
U111
U17
U10
U82
U120
U125
U200
U44
U117
U121
U83
U23
U88
U54
U132
U9
U21
U76
U62
U87
U168
U22
U167
U159
U104
U58
U160
U25
U131
U16
U192
U114
U146
U116
U20
U60
U61
U80
U12
U63
U29
U40
U51
U162
U57
U85
U19
U194
U4
U53
U94
U49
U169
U38
U108
U47
U128
U43
U126
U
U119
4th Quartile
200
U127
U106
U134
U15
250
1st Quartile
27
Data Review
DataReview
Reviewing
ReviewingAll
All data,thatisthedatathat
data that is the data that
includeseverythingcustomersexperienced
can lead to conclusions about how companies
canleadtoconclusionsabouthowcompanies
handlemajorevents.
Thefollowingslidesshowdatawithout
segmentation.
i
28
0
U57
U159
1600
U114
U134
1800
29
U134
U117
U76
1400
U159
U129
1200
U76
800
U129
U126
U127
U49
U87
U15
U16
U131
U104
U55
U8
U85
U108
U94
U160
U17
U132
U62
U7
U61
U12
U125
U52
U60
U166
U23
U9
U191
U199
U167
U192
U21
U80
U88
U24
U20
U165
U67
U123
U172
U189
U133
U164
U63
U163
U198
U68
U82
U109
200
U196
3rd Quartile
1st Quartile
U161
U103
U197
U170
U196
U177
U109
U41
U82
U162
U68
U100
U198
U173
U163
U95
U63
U90
U164
U6
U133
U110
U189
U1
U172
U111
U123
U56
U67
U54
U165
U169
U20
U146
U24
U29
U88
U157
U80
U14
U21
U10
U192
U83
U167
U58
U199
U120
U191
U171
U9
U44
U23
U4
U166
U168
U60
U46
U52
U64
U125
U84
U12
U200
U61
U121
U7
U40
U62
U195
5
U132
2
U19
U17
7
U51
U16
60
U13
30
U94
U4
47
U108
U
U119
U
U85
U
U38
U8
U194
U55
U116
U104
U137
U131
U65
U16
U43
U15
U106
U87
U25
U49
U22
U127
U53
U126
U128
400
U197
600
U161
Minutes
2000
4th Quartile
1000
2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile
2
1st Quartile
0
U162
2
U19
97
U41
1
U1
177
U8
82
U170
U
U63
U
U21
U
U46
U
U169
U
U161
U
U29
U68
U15
U189
U20
U146
U164
U109
U6
U80
U67
U196
U56
U172
U173
U110
U24
U100
U38
U88
U137
U128
U1
U54
U47
U4
U133
U95
U111
U23
U199
U83
U163
U198
U103
U7
U192
U195
U55
U165
U58
U106
U168
U108
U10
U43
U90
U167
U120
U191
U51
U9
U60
U129
U14
U40
U19
U53
U49
U123
U132
U17
U160
U44
U94
U85
U61
U12
U125
U121
U16
U171
U25
U87
U116
U131
U119
U194
U84
U22
U8
U62
U130
U127
U159
U65
U200
U166
U134
U52
U117
U126
U
U64
U104
U114
U162
U197
U41
U177
U82
U170
U63
U21
U46
U169
U161
U29
U68
U15
U189
U20
U146
U164
U109
U6
U80
U67
U196
U56
U172
U173
U110
U24
U100
U38
U88
U137
U128
U1
U54
U47
U4
U133
U95
U111
U23
U199
U83
U163
U198
U103
U7
U192
U195
U55
U165
U58
U106
U168
U108
U10
U43
U90
U167
U120
U191
U51
U9
U60
U129
U14
U40
U19
U53
U49
U123
U132
U17
U160
U44
U94
U85
U61
U12
U125
U121
U16
U171
U25
U87
U116
U131
U119
U194
U84
U22
U8
U62
U130
U127
U159
U65
U200
U166
U134
U52
U117
U126
U64
U104
U114
U76
U57
U157
Intterruptions
U76
6
5
U57
U157
6
4th Quartile
2nd Quartile
Utility
30
2nd Quartile
300
1st Quartile
200
100
0
U157
7
U103
3
U161
U196
U
U197
U170
U109
U90
U198
U123
U163
U64
U100
U166
U95
U52
U173
U133
U177
U68
U165
U111
U1
U200
U110
U171
U14
U82
U41
U6
U172
U164
U54
U10
U189
U56
U167
U67
U192
U44
U104
U84
U58
U24
U191
U62
U83
U120
U63
U88
U20
U9
U125
U162
U12
U146
U121
U61
U80
U130
U199
U169
U29
U60
U168
U23
U4
U132
U40
U17
U160
U94
U119
U8
U19
U21
U194
U7
U51
U116
U65
U195
U131
U85
U126
U16
U108
U76
U47
U46
U87
U57
U55
U25
U127
U22
U3
38
U4
43
U137
U
U49
U106
U53
U117
U15
400
U157
U103
U161
U196
U197
U170
U109
U90
U198
U123
U163
U64
U100
U166
U95
U52
U173
U133
U177
U68
U165
U111
U1
U200
U110
U171
U14
U82
U41
U6
U172
U164
U54
U10
U189
U56
U167
U67
U192
U44
U104
U84
U58
U24
U191
U62
U83
U120
U63
U88
U20
U9
U125
U162
U12
U146
U121
U61
U80
U130
U199
U169
U29
U60
U168
U23
U4
U132
U40
U17
U160
U94
U119
U8
U19
U21
U194
U7
U51
U116
U65
U195
U131
U85
U126
U16
U108
U76
U47
U46
U87
U57
U55
U25
U127
U22
U38
U43
U137
U49
U106
U53
U117
U15
U129
U114
U128
U159
U134
Minutes
600
U159
700
500
3rd Quartile
U129
U114
U128
800
U134
4th Quartile
31
2010IEEESurvey TrendsforSAIDIbyQuartiles
Minutes
Max
1884
Max
502
497
Max
548
410
386
192
198
145
146
98
105
200
144
Max SAIDI
Min SAIDI
NA Average SAIDI
200
167
158
116
128
162
109
124
81
89
17
20
25
20
15
21
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010IEEESurvey TrendsforSAIFIbyQuartiles
2005 to 2010 IEEE SAIFI Benchmarking Quartiles
5.0
4.5
4.0
Max SAIFI
Min SAIFI
NA Average SAIFI
4.65
4.46
3.5
2.98
3.0
3.20
3.12
Events
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.63
1.70
1.39
1.36
1.09
0.5
0.0
0.36
2005
1.71
1.33
1.11
0.63
2006
1.60
1.35
1.49
1.46
1.12
1.17
0.93
1.06
1.12
0 89
0.89
0.37
0.32
0.39
0.42
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010IEEESurvey TrendsforCAIDIbyQuartiles
2005 to 2010 IEEE CAIDI Benchmarking Quartiles
300
275
250
225
Max CAIDI
Min CAIDI
NA Average CAIDI
Max 1059
224
220
214
200
206
212
175
Minutess
150
131
125
127
100
105
108
83
82
20
19
2005
2006
75
127
139
109
117
85
99
121
122
102
106
83
88
50
25
0
30
25
20
21
2007
2008
2009
2010