Consumer Goods

Though German consumer goods production dipped back in February, improving domestic conditions should provide support ahead. Turning to the other core European countries, production has very gradually been rising in the UK but little improvement has been seen in France and Italy over past months. Meanwhile, tighter credit conditions, particularly in the peripheral economies, as a result of the events in Cyprus, are likely to contain consumer spending somewhat. Furthermore, unemployment in the Eurozone is yet to peak and, so, household purchasing power is likely to be eroded further. Indeed, this will dampen domestic consumer goods production as well as output in those countries which have close trade links to the Eurozone. US consumer goods output was unchanged on the month in March but an improving housing market should continue to support consumer spending, which has been remarkably strong. Meanwhile, Japanese output increased in February but remains firmly below levels seen a year earlier.

For further information contact Amit Sharda (asharda@oxfordeconomics.com)

Consumer goods: Output growth

% year 20 Japan 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 US EU15 Forecast

-20

-25 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

EU15: Consumer goods output growth

% year 10 Food, beverages & tobacco

Textiles: New orders

% year 3mma 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Germany -10 Italy

-5 Textiles, leather & clothing Forecast

-15 -20 -25 -30 Apr-08

S

-10

Paper, & printing

-15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Oxford Economics

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

St B / ISTAT

Consumer goods: Output

2005=100 110 Japan 105 3 month moving average

Consumer goods: Output

2005=100 110 105 100 Italy Germany

100

95 90

95 UK, Germany, France, Italy 90 US

France 85 80 75 3 month moving average 70 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

UK

85 Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013

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Consumer Goods

Food, beverages & tobacco: Output

2005=100 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 94 3 month moving average Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 US Japan UK, Germany, France, Italy

Pulp, paper & printing: Output

% year 10 Italy 5 0 -5 -10 -15 France -20 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Germany

UK

92 Apr-08

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

Textiles: Output growth

% year 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Apr-08 Japan US

Textiles: New orders

% year 3mma 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Apr-08 Germany Italy

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: StaBu / ISTAT

Textiles & clothing: Output growth

% year 30 Turkey 20 10 0 -10 -20 3 month moving average -30 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Mexico Poland, textiles

Textiles & clothing: Output growth

% year 40 China, clothing 3 month moving average, except for Korea

Korea, textiles

20

-20 Taiwan, textiles -40 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013

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Consumer Goods

Pulp & paper: Output

% year 15 10 5 0 Japan

Textiles & Clothing: Prices

% year 8 7 6 5 4 Germany US

-5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Apr-08

US

3 2 1 0 -1 Apr-08 UK

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Food, beverages & tobacco: Prices

% year 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Apr-08 Apr-09 Germany US UK

Pulp, paper & printing: Prices

% year 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Germany US UK

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

-4 Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Industry Output - Consumer Goods

USA Index
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar 90.0 90.3 90.3 0.8 0.7 1.5 97.2 98.6 -4.5 -2.9 83.5 82.9 3.0 1.3 88.0 87.9 -1.8 -1.9 86.5 86.0 0.0 0.4 91.2 93.1 -3.8 -0.4 89.0 89.6 89.5 89.4 89.7 89.1 89.3 88.0 89.3 90.2

Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted Japan Germany France Italy Index
103.2 101.2 100.0 101.5 99.5 101.0 100.5 97.2 99.2 99.7

UK % change
-5.7 -7.2 -5.0 -7.8 -6.2 -5.7 -5.2 -6.2 -7.5 -8.2 92.5 91.1 92.7 89.3 91.2 90.8 90.5 89.2 88.0 88.2

% change
1.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.8 0.8 1.2 -0.8 1.5 1.8

% change
1.8 0.1 -4.2 -6.8 -9.6 -2.8 -2.8 -3.8 -2.7 -2.9

Index
82.9 80.7 82.6 82.3 81.1 82.0 81.3 81.8 81.3 82.2

% change Index
-0.7 -4.1 0.2 -1.1 -3.0 -0.4 -2.0 -1.2 -2.3 0.2 89.8 89.5 89.0 88.6 87.8 89.8 87.7 88.5 87.2 89.2

% change
-2.3 -2.1 -3.0 -3.0 -3.5 -1.6 -3.9 -1.7 -4.1 -0.4

Index % change Index

87.4 86.7 86.4 85.1 86.6 87.7 86.9 85.2 84.8 85.5 -6.1 -7.5 -7.0 -7.1 -4.9 -4.7 -1.3 -3.3 -4.4 -4.5

Monthly Industry Briefing: March 2013

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