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    2014-02-25 Federal Poll Projection by Region

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    David MacDonald
    The document summarizes poll projections for Canada's 2015 federal election by region. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are projected to receive 53.7% support, the Conservatives 23.2%, NDP 18.7%, and Greens 4.4%. In Quebec, the projections show the Liberals at 33.9%, NDP at 27.5%, Conservatives at 14.8%, and Bloc Quebecois at 21.2%. Ontario projections have the Liberals at 38.7%, Conservatives at 33.5%, and NDP at 22.1%.

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    2014-02-25 Federal Poll Projection by Region

    Uploaded by

    David MacDonald
    3K views7 pages
    The document summarizes poll projections for Canada's 2015 federal election by region. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are projected to receive 53.7% support, the Conservatives 23.2%, NDP 18.7%, and Greens 4.4%. In Quebec, the projections show the Liberals at 33.9%, NDP at 27.5%, Conservatives at 14.8%, and Bloc Quebecois at 21.2%. Ontario projections have the Liberals at 38.7%, Conservatives at 33.5%, and NDP at 22.1%.

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    The document summarizes poll projections for Canada's 2015 federal election by region. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are projected to receive 53.7% support, the Conservatives 23.2%, NDP 18.7%, and Greens 4.4%. In Quebec, the projections show the Liberals at 33.9%, NDP at 27.5%, Conservatives at 14.8%, and Bloc Quebecois at 21.2%. Ontario projections have the Liberals at 38.7%, Conservatives at 33.5%, and NDP at 22.1%.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    3K views7 pages

    2014-02-25 Federal Poll Projection by Region

    Uploaded by

    David MacDonald
    The document summarizes poll projections for Canada's 2015 federal election by region. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are projected to receive 53.7% support, the Conservatives 23.2%, NDP 18.7%, and Greens 4.4%. In Quebec, the projections show the Liberals at 33.9%, NDP at 27.5%, Conservatives at 14.8%, and Bloc Quebecois at 21.2%. Ontario projections have the Liberals at 38.7%, Conservatives at 33.5%, and NDP at 22.1%.

    Copyright:

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    of 7

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Atlantic Canada Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Atlantic Canada

    23.2

    4.4

    53.7 18.7

    1.3

    14.8

    2.6

    33.9 27.5

    1.3

    Ontario

    33.5

    5.6

    38.7 22.1

    1.1

    Manitoba/Saskatchewan

    38.9

    5.3

    34.9 21.0

    1.0

    Alberta

    52.2

    4.7

    26.7 16.5

    2.3

    British Columbia

    29.7 11.9 29.5 28.9

    2.2

    Quebec

    21

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Atlantic Canada Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    164
    79
    91
    99

    21
    24.5
    27.2
    21

    6
    3
    3.1
    4

    56
    54.8
    45.8
    53

    15
    17.8
    22.3
    21

    2.0
    -0.1
    1.6
    1.0

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    164
    79
    91
    99

    34
    19
    25
    21

    10
    2
    3
    4

    92
    43
    42
    52

    25
    14
    20
    21

    3
    0
    1
    1

    427

    99

    19

    229

    80

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    23.2

    4.4

    53.7 18.7

    1.3

    1.3

    60.0

    18.7

    23.2

    53.7

    50.0
    4.4

    40.0
    30.0

    23.2

    20.0
    18.7

    10.0

    53.7

    4.4

    0.0
    CON

    1.3

    GRN

    LIB
    NDP

    OTH

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Quebec Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    BQ

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    417
    208
    304
    443

    22
    25.1
    19.4
    19

    17
    9.4
    17.1
    13

    2
    2.9
    2.6
    3

    36
    32.7
    28.3
    35

    22
    29
    31.7
    28

    1.0
    0.9
    0.9
    2.0

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    BQ

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    417
    208
    304
    443

    92
    52
    59
    84

    71
    20
    52
    58

    8
    6
    8
    13

    150
    68
    86
    155

    92
    60
    96
    124

    4
    2
    3
    9

    1354

    287

    200

    36

    459

    372

    18

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    21.2 14.8

    35.0

    33.9 27.5

    1.3

    1.3
    33.9

    21.2

    27.5

    30.0
    25.0

    2.6

    21.2

    27.5
    14.8

    20.0
    14.8

    15.0

    2.6

    10.0

    33.9

    5.0

    2.6

    0.0
    BQ

    1.3

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    BQ

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Ontario Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    634
    244
    514
    377

    31
    39.5
    35
    30

    4
    4.7
    5.4
    9

    42
    34.3
    36.6
    37

    22
    20.3
    21.7
    23

    1.0
    1.2
    1.3
    1.0

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    634
    244
    514
    377

    197
    96
    180
    113

    25
    11
    28
    34

    266
    84
    188
    139

    139
    50
    112
    87

    6
    3
    7
    4

    1749

    586

    99

    678

    387

    20

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    40.0

    33.5

    38.7 22.1

    1.1

    1.1

    38.7

    33.5

    5.6

    22.1
    33.5

    35.0
    30.0
    25.0
    20.0
    15.0
    10.0
    5.0
    0.0

    22.1
    5.6
    38.7
    5.6

    CON

    1.1

    GRN

    LIB
    NDP

    OTH

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Manitoba/Saskatchewan Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    127
    51
    38
    142

    41
    25
    53.8
    37

    4
    3.2
    1.9
    8

    37
    47.7
    29.2
    29

    17
    24.1
    13.2
    25

    1.0
    0.0
    1.9
    1.0

    Forum Research
    EKOS (Man.)
    EKOS (Sask.)
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    127
    51
    38
    142

    52
    13
    20
    53

    5
    2
    1
    11

    47
    24
    11
    41

    22
    12
    5
    36

    1
    0
    1
    1

    355

    138

    19

    124

    74

    Forum Research
    EKOS (Man.)
    EKOS (Sask.)
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    38.9

    5.3

    34.9 21.0

    1.0

    38.9
    1.0

    40.0

    21.0

    35.0

    34.9

    38.9

    30.0
    25.0
    20.0
    15.0
    10.0
    5.0
    0.0

    21.0
    34.9

    5.3

    5.3

    CON

    1.0

    GRN

    LIB
    NDP

    OTH

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    Alberta Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    165
    137
    151

    50
    52.3
    51

    3
    7.1
    4

    28
    26
    24

    18
    11.7
    18

    1.0
    2.9
    3.0

    Forum Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    165
    137
    151

    83
    72
    77

    5
    10
    6

    46
    36
    36

    30
    16
    27

    2
    4
    5

    443

    231

    21

    118

    73

    10

    Forum Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    60.0

    52.2

    4.7

    26.7 16.5

    2.3

    2.3

    52.2

    16.5

    50.0
    52.2

    40.0
    26.7

    30.0

    26.7

    20.0
    10.0

    4.7

    16.5

    4.7

    0.0
    CON

    2.3

    GRN

    LIB
    NDP

    OTH

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    Canada Federal Election 2015

    www.electionalmanac.com

    British Columbia Poll Projection - February 25, 2014


    Step 1: Record the sample size and party percentages for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    238
    128
    179
    320

    28
    31
    16.9
    36

    9
    9
    16.4
    12

    35
    25
    28.4
    26

    27
    34
    31.7
    25

    1.0
    1.0
    6.6
    1.0

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data

    Step 2: Calculate the approximate number of respondents for each party for each poll.
    FIRM

    LAST POLLING DAY

    SAMPLE

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

    2014-02-19
    2014-02-15
    2014-01-27
    2014-01-18

    238
    128
    179
    320

    67
    40
    30
    115

    21
    12
    29
    38

    83
    32
    51
    83

    64
    44
    57
    80

    2
    1
    12
    3

    846

    252

    101

    249

    245

    19

    Forum Research
    Nanos Research
    EKOS
    Abacus Data
    COMBINED TOTAL

    Step 3: Convert the combined total of respondents for each party into a percentage of the total.

    Projected %

    29.7 11.9 29.5 28.9

    2.2

    29.7

    30.0

    2.2

    29.5
    28.9

    29.7

    28.9

    25.0
    20.0
    15.0

    11.9

    11.9

    10.0
    29.5

    5.0
    0.0
    2.2

    CON

    GRN

    LIB
    NDP

    OTH

    CON

    GRN

    LIB

    NDP

    OTH

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