EPA Memo-Cogen

www.energyportfolioassociates.com
The Spark
(914) 381-6300 F (914) 381-6303 October 16, 2009

EPA Memo-Cogen’s Energy Price Commentary & Technical Research

atural Gas & Electricity

Once again it was a rather quite week for Natural Gas and electricity prices. However for the first time in 5 weeks we actually saw
across the board declines in strip prices for 6,12 and 24 months. November Natural Gas on NYMEX was decidedly weaker over the
past week. It appears that record supplies and decreased demand are starting to catch up with the recent rally. It was also disclosed on
Tuesday that the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) the largest Natural Gas Exchange Traded Fund at $4 Billion net asset value, might
have to put a larger amount of it's investments in over-the-counter swaps and other gas related investments because of limits on en-
ergy speculation. Currently NYMEX Natural Gas Futures make up the largest investment in the fund. November Futures were down
5% on this news. It has been spoken about for many months how UNG might be artificially inflating the price of Natural Gas, it now
appears as if the market might be starting to take notice.

Even though record Natural Gas Supplies were announced yet again this week, Chesapeake Energy Corp, the fourth largest producer
in the nation raised its 2009 output forecast this week and said that 2010 and 2011 production would top output this year.

"The Spark" believes that unless we start to see some significant improvement in our economy, based on the current and forecasted
Natural Gas supply, Natural Gas prices and thus Electricity prices are likely to remain low and quite likely head lower. Our technical
work confirms our fundamental opinion, and therefore we would be in no rush to lock in prices for any period of time.

Natural Gas Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.67 –.05 7.7 Incomplete
12 Month 5.88 –.05 8.7
24 Month 6.33 –.04 8.3 Incomplete

PJM Electric Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.16 Flat 7.7 Incomplete
12 Month 5.65 –.02 7.8 Incomplete
24 Month 5.99 –.02 8.0 Incomplete

PJM Electric 12 Month Strip

*prices are a snapshot at time of composition. Price changes are on a publication over publication change.

This Newsletter is authored by Michael E. Mollin. Michael E. Mollin is the principal of M.E. Mollin & Company LLC a Registered Investment Advisor in
New York State. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, however, Energy Portfolio Associates ("EPA") and M.E. Mollin & Company
LLC ("MEM") do not warrant it's completeness or accuracy. Quotes are estimates and are not guaranteed by either EPA or MEM. Neither EPA or MEM is
acting as your advisor and the decision to proceed with any transaction rest solely with you. Copyright 2009, M.E. Mollin & Company, LLC