pragneshjain@rathi.

com

Pragnesh Jain
+91 22 4047 7105
14 Feb. 14

Gold Is the recovery done?

COMEX Gold has given an Inverse Head and Shoulder pattern breakout, which has positive implications. This suggests that gold prices are likely to continue the current rally and extend gains towards the potential targets of $1,350, followed by $1,370 $1 levels. The positive ositive RSI and MACD add to the strength in the yellow metal. Buying is advised on dips towards $1,280 280 which is the neckline of the Inv Inverse H & S pattern. Weaker-than-expected data from the U.S. also support gold prices since they raise worries that the Fed might not continue tapering its bond bond-purchase programme in its forthcoming coming March meeting. Moreover, so far this year, the SPDR Gold ETF (the worlds largest gold ETF) has recorded net inflows following the heavy liquidation seen for most of la last st year. This is likely to underpin gold prices in the days ahead. On the daily chart spot gold has been trading in a downward-sloping channel, and has recently broken above the same signalling bullishness in coming days indicating prices could head towards $1,338 (which is a 61.8% retracement of the fall from $1,434 in September 2013 to $1,182 in December 2013). After making a couple of bottoms at $1,182 levels, it
Please go through the last page for important disclaimer

has been trading within a small upward-sloping channel (yellow dotted) indicating short-term positivity. However, it is trading close to the resistance of the upward-sloping channel, which is also near the 200-day SMA. Because of this, resistance can be seen at $1,309. As such, a dip towards $1,289 or even $1,277 cannot be ruled out, which can then be used to go long. All the above strongly argues that gold prices are likely to head further up possibly towards $1,338 followed by $1,350 and $1,370. Meanwhile, dips towards $1,280, if at all seen, should be used as buying opportunities. A break and close below $1,250 would negate our view and indicate an extension of the weakness towards $1,230 and $1,210.

AnandRathi Commodities Ltd., 11th Floor, Times Tower Kamala City, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai 400013 India Phone: +91 (22) 4047 7000; Fax +91 (22) 4047 7070 Mail: commresearch@rathi.com
Shriram Pitre Pragnesh Jain Sr VP &Research Head Commodities Senior Technical Analyst shrirampitre@rathi.com pragneshjain@rathi.com +91 (22) 4047 7038 +91 (22) 4047 7105

Disclaimers: This report has been issued by AnandRathi Commodities Limited (ARCL), which is regulated by FMC. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any commodities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such commodities ("related investments"). ARCL and its affiliates may trade for their own accounts as market maker / jobber and/or arbitrageur in any commodities of this issuer(s) or in related investments, and may be on the opposite side of public orders. ARCL, its affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may have a long or short position in any commodities of this issuer(s) or in related investments. This research report is prepared for private circulation. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any commodities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such trades, if any, may fluctuate and that each commodity's price or value may rise or fall. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any commodity or related investment mentioned in this report. The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the commodities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report 2010 AnandRathi Commodities Limited. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AnandRathi Commodities Limited. Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.

Please go through the last page for important disclaimer