Rael Polling Memo March 2014

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("'%-I-=-+M: Cur laLesL SLaLewlde voLer survey of 1,233 uemocraLlc llkely-
voLlng households, uslng auLodlal Lechnology of voLers wlLh proven voLlng records
ln Lhe 2010 and 2012 nM uemocraLlc prlmary elecLlons lncluded voLers from all
33 counLles. 1he survey's margln of error was 3.2 and resulLs were ad[usLed Lo
meeL demographlc norms, Lo lnclude gender, eLhnlclLy, geography and oLher
ma[or facLors. We have uLlllzed Lhese facLors and Lhls meLhodology ln conducLlng
surveys slnce Lhe 2006 nM Covernor's race.

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O-''-( =,#"> '62 *&"= 50JP0BQ? PB5K2A EP 8R9 P.B?@3 B? @62 103@ @6/22 J.?@63
@. 36.D @62 10/Q23@ J.J2?@EJ .S 0?G I"(-$*&',$ QET2/?0@./B01 50JP0BQ?
3B?52 .E/ 103@ 3@0@2DBA2 3E/F2G B? #.F2JT2/4 9:7CR '62 055.JP0?GB?Q 560/@
36.D3 @62 P/.Q/233 .S 2056 50JP0BQ? AE/B?Q @62 103@ 8: A0G3R

'62 *&"= 50JP0BQ? B3 36.DB?Q 3BQ?BSB50?@ EPD0/A J.J2?@EJ 0?A 603
.F2/@0K2? 011 /2J0B?B?Q 560112?Q2/3 @. T25.J2 @62 J0U./ 01@2/?0@BF2 @. @62 VB?Q
50?ABA05G4 D6B56 B3 .? @62 A251B?2R
1he 8ALL campalgn ls Lhe CnL? uemocraLlc gubernaLorlal campalgn Lo
demonsLraLe over 20 supporL aL 8C1P Lhe SLaLe re-rlmary ConvenLlon Anu
Lhe ma[or sLaLewlde polls. 8ael ls runnlng ln 2
nd
place among Anglo and Plspanlc
llkely voLers.


$0?ABA0@2 #.F 9:7C (0/ 9:7; $%&#+"
klng 31.6 26.6 -3 uCWn
Lopez 8.8 10.2 +1.4 u
Morales 7.7 12.0 +4.3 u
*&"= 77R8W 97RXW Y8RZW [<
Weber 7.3 9.9 +2.6 u
undeclded 32.7 19.8 -12.9 down
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8ALL ls showlng slgnlflcanL sLrengLh ln Albuquerque, 8ernallllo CounLy, Lhe 1
sL

Congresslonal ulsLrlcL and Lhe Albuquerque MeLro area - Lhe largesL voLlng
clusLer ln Lhe SLaLe of new Mexlco. Pls campalgn ls also runlng a sLrong 2
nd
Lo
klng ln Lhe norLhern Plspanlc CounLles. When comblned, Lhese areas accounL for
almosL Lwo-Lhlrds of Lhe enLlre voLlng ln Lhe prlmary and puL Lhe 8ael campalgn ln
sLrong poslLlon Lo wln Lhe !une prlmary elecLlon.

AL Lhls polnL ln Lhe campalgn, almosL 20 of Lhe voLe remalns undeclded. Slnce
our lasL survey ln november, much of klng's supporL has moved lnLo Lhe
undeclded voLer pool and has lefL a slgnlflcanL amounL of ModeraLe and
ConservaLlve llkely voLers ln Lhls voLlng bloc. WlLh lncreased voLer awareness of
8ael, hls campalgn wlll sLrongly compeLe for Lhese voLes whlch can easlly move
lnLo hls column ln Lhe prlmary elecLlon.

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