LEADING FROM MURSHIDABAD HAS THE MAXIMUM NUMBER

FRONT

OF YOUTH ENROLMENT THIS YEAR, FOLLOWED BY MALDA AND EAST MIDNAPORE

Some DMs and SPs are working in favour of the ruling party. We have asked the election commission to take over the charge of the law and order situation in Bengal | RABIN DEB

Dance of Democracy Saffron Surge A Riddle In Bengal

BATTLEGROUND BENGAL | 12APR-12MAY, 2014
THE TIMES OF INDIA | KOLKATA | WEDNESDAY, MARCH 26, 2014
TIMES NEWS NETWORK

ALIPURDUARS

ifteen years ago, Bengal, which was then a red citadel, sent two BJP leaders to Lok Sabha Tapan Sikdar and Satyabrata Mookherjee. They became junior ministers in the NDA ministry. Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the BJPs face then. The Bengal saffronites, who sprung a surprise in political circles, are back in the fray from the same constituencies when a NaMo breeze is blowing across the country. Their rivals admit that an upswing in BJP vote can upset poll calculations this time. In the years since 1999, the BJP vote share has fluctuated between a low 1.39% (in Jadavpur) to a high 26% (in Madarihat, Alipurduar). Numbers are likely to change, with BJP emerging as a potent force in a host of constituencies. For some years now, Bengal is witnessing a silent migration labourers and educated youths alike to other states. Fragmented land holdings and lack of new industries are pushing Bengals productive class out. The shifting of Tata Motors Nano factory from Singur to Sanand was a massive blow. Youngsters moving out have started comparing Bengals performance with other states. The desperation undermines the Bengal governments positive role in social sector when compared to Gujarat. Spiralling inflation and joblessness bother them the most. Left Front cannot exploit this resentment because they are also responsible for it. Congress is on the slide, thanks to the corruption and scams of UPA-II and the annoying inflation that it could not check. A sizeable section of urban voters is looking beyond fixed frames. The projected emergence of Narendra Modi has come as a threat to minorities, particularly Muslims who constitute 26.27% of Bengals population. The fear is palpable in minority-dominated Rajabazar as in Murshidabad, where Muslims constitute the majority. However, political observers maintain that consolidation of the minority vote bank might prompt a counter-consolidation of Hindu votes that can go in BJPs favour. A tie-up of Gorkha Janmukti Morcha and BJP may upset poll calculations in adivasidominated Dooars and Terai if Jharkhand Mukti Morcha ties up with GJM-BJP combine

21.40%

41.22%

Poll surveys project an upswing in BJP vote. The question is by how much and whose vote is it going to erode. Voters hold the key. But it would to be simplistic to conclude that BJP would increase its vote share at the cost of the ruling Trinamool. If it does, BJP candidates will do so across political lines Trinamool, Congress and Left. Going by the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, there are constituencies where BJP can play game-changer. The following seats have been chosen on poll figures, demography and the present ground reality

BJPS VOTE SHARE IN 2009 LOK SABHA POLLS

29.14%
BASIRHAT KRISHNAGAR

6.55% 42.43%

16.76%

46.19%

40.39% 35.03%
BALURGHAT MALDA NORTH BOLPUR

6.50% 6.82% 44.38% 6.68% 47.78% 38.14% 43.79%

DUM DUM

49.91%

41.25%
HOWRAH

5.71%

47.04%

3.80%

48.04%

THE DOWNSIDE
BJPs vote share had been on the rise till the panchayat elections when it was cut by half Its tally of 581 gram panchayat seats in 2013 is only half that of its biggest win of over 1000 seats in 2008 It doesnt have a single zilla parishad seat and only 36 panchayat samiti seats

44.94%
LEGEND
Trinamool Congress (TMC) Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Indian National Congress Party Communist Party of India (Marxist)

44.27%
KOLKATA NORTH ASANSOL

THE UPSWING
The Jangipur Lok Sabha bypolls in Oct 2012 showed a meteoric rise in BJPs vote share from 4% in 2009 to 12%. This alarmed other parties. BJP candidate Sudhanshu Biswas got 85,857 votes in an area that has 71% Muslim population In the assembly bypolls in Daspur and Bankura, BJP gained nearly 2% votes. And this upsurge was evident before it, when BJP bettered its 2011 assembly poll performance in municipality elections in Durgapur, Dhupguri and even Panskura and Haldia

4.22%

52.50%

5.56%

48.69%

40.05%

40.53%

NaMo chant grows louder among youths in state

TOI

Krishnendu Bandyopadhyay

TNN

Kolkata: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) doesnt enjoy a strong base in the state, but the party may upset equations in many constituencies if young many of them first-timers voters have their way . The Modi factor appears to have weaved a magic among the young lot desperately seeking a change. With 14.21 lakh first-time voters and a staggering 20.79 lakh voters in the 18-19 age group in Bengal this time, it can be anybodys game at quite a few seats that will see close contests between strong contenders. So what has worked in favour of Narendra Modi, the maverick chief minister of Gujarat? Talking to a host of youngsters from different fields, TOI found that anti-incumbency sentiment runs high among this new breed. Secondly , with no

proper alternative in the fray , Modi has come up as the obvious choice. As far as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is concerned, inexperience in governance worked against it. Above all, everyone TOI spoke to wanted a stable government at the Centre. Interestingly , none of them was in two minds when it came to divide their attention between the regional favourites and those at the Center. Student Aqsa Mustaque didnt want to get stuck with the burden of the past. The Gujarat riot was a huge misunderstanding that we need to leave behind and move forward. So far, we, as a nation, have showed the promise of becoming a super-power. It is time to deliver. In this regard, I heap my faith on Modi, she said. For BPO professional Trisha Pal, Modis the only option. Modi may not be my favourite but theres none to champion a strong proposition. The

RIDING MODI WAVE

AAP is too young to be at the helm of national affair, she reasoned. Young educated minds, many

of whom voluntarily attended NaMos public rally in Kolkata last month, want to think nationally . We know the BJP has hardly any base in Bengal, yet I want make my choice very clear, she added. The AAP emerged a strong contender among young voters in Bengal after it had formed the government in Delhi. But it paid a price for its inexperience. We may think of the AAP at the state level but NDA has an edge because of its stronger leadership, said Debangana Sarkar, a young banker. If anti-incumbency is a priority , promises of young vibrant progressive India are high on the wishlist. We are tired of scams, inflation and pricerise. The change is a must, said Moinuddin Ahmed, an IT professional. Aritro Bhowmik and Debparna Talapatra,

through from different academic institutions, breathe in a cosmopolitan atmosphere. The overall swing is towards the NDA, with some pockets of preferences for the Trinamool or the Left. The only blot in Modis political career is the Gujarat riot, without which I would have stronger conscience to vote for NaMo. But majority will vote for Modi. Even my Muslim friends think on the same lines, said Debapurna. The BJP is upbeat about the young statistics of the state. They expect new voters to be unburdened by political ideologies and to boost the antiincumbency wave. The psychology of young voters is unpolluted. These voters are bound to be more concerned over corruption, price rise and lack of job opportunities. For them, good governance will be the issue, said state BJP president Rahul Sinha.

Bengal will get more central forces this year: Zutshi

Biplab Mondal

Rain and storm spoil Congress rally

Continued from P1

TIMES NEWS NETWORK

Kolkata: Deputy election commissioner Vinod Zutshi on Tuesday assured that the state will get more central forces than it had received during the last Lok Sabha election. However, he refused to elaborate on how many companies will be allocated for Bengal. The state had got 220 companies in 2009 and it has requisitioned for 300 companies for the fivephase poll this year. There will be more force than the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and we will ensure tight security for sensitive and highly sensitive booths. Apart from that, there will be micro-observers, still photography , video photography and web casting in all booths, Zutshi said. On the backdrop of the opposition alleging that the election commission CEO was blatantly favouring the ruling party , Zutshi assured that the model code of conduct will be followed under all circumstances and that no undue advantage will be given to any political party . As a first step, he instructed district magistrates, superintendents of police and state chief electoral officer to take immediate action on poll-related complaints received so far. Political parties have expressed concern over certain issues. The commission is committed to make the election free and fair and I have in-

Vinod Zutshi in Kolkata on Tuesday

structed all DMs, SPs and the CEO to take prompt action. All complaints, be they from political parties or any other source, must be probed immediately , Zutshi said. When asked why action against was still not yet taken against Krishnendu Narayan Chowdhury , Sougata Roy and Anubrata Mondal, the deputy election commissioner said, We had detailed discussions on these issues and I have instructed the officials to take action soon. The commission is committed to instill confi-

dence among voters and if anyone is spotted intimidating or threatening anyone, he/she should be indentified and action should be taken. Zutshis stricture comes after his meeting with major political parties in the state. The deputy election commissioner, who is in charge of Bengal, is on a two-day visit to the state to review the preparedness and the law and order situation prior to the election. Speaking to media after a meeting with the deputy election commissioner, CPM leader Rabin Deb said, There are some district magistrates and superintendents of police who are working in favour of the ruling party . We have asked the election commission to take over the charge of the law and order situation. Congress leader Manas Bhunia said, We have asked the election commission to take action against SPs of Burdwan, Birbhum, Cooch Behar, East and West Midnapore and North Dinajpur and the district magistrates of Birbhum, South 24-Parganas and Howrah. They are working for the ruling party . BJP state president Rahul Sinha added, Our party workers are being tortured by the ruling party workers and police have remained inactive. The election commission should look into these gross violations. When contacted, a top Trinamool leader refused to comment.

t the helipad, a drenched Nirbed Ray was there to welcome Rahul Gandhi. Perhaps sensing Rahuls mind, an SPG officer told Nirbed: Sir, aap bhi thoda bataayen unko, wahan jana safe nahi hoga (please tell him, its not safe to go there). When Nirbed stepped forward to greet Rahul, he did voice the SPG concern. Rahul looked at the SPG officer and told him flatly that he would go to Shahid Minar. Rahulji, however, agreed to their repeated pleas that speaking on the microphone was not safe. The wires had snapped and were lying on the soggy ground. It would have posed a risk not only to Rahulji but for everyone who stood on the ground, Ray said. His own cellphone was damaged in the rain. At 4:05pm, before Rahul arrived, security agencies began their drill. DCP-DD Sumanjit Ray and DCP-STF Bastab Baidya cleared the sanitised zone and DCP-south Murlidhar Sharma tried to clear up the clogged approach road to the dais. Ten SPG commandos surrounded the dais while two did riskier checks. One of them used the microphone to check if it had any electrical discharge and the other ensured that the dais would not collapse. Rahul arrived on schedule, not in his bulletproof vehicle but in a party car. He strode to the dais, waved to crowd and then decided to mingle with them. The few thousand who had braved the rain cheered as Rahul extended his hand beyond the barricades. Cellphone cameras clicked constantly . It went off without a hitch until a girl jumped two barricades, wildly waving at Rahul just when he was getting into the car. Kolkata cops quickly blocked her off as Rahuls vehicle sped away towards the RCTC helipad.

Leaders in Delhi dont know what poverty is

Continued from P1 n reply to Rahul Gandhis highway dig, Mamata Banerjee said: Tenders are pending for ages. Had the roads been under the state government, we would have done the job in a day . Rahul accused the Mamata government of misutilizing central funds. We send crores of rupees to the Bengal government. Its your money and not for MPs and MLAs, but the sad fact is that it only reaches Kolkata, not you. We hope a day comes when this money reaches you. We are mak-

L Sah

Rahul Gandhi and (left) Mamata Banerjee at their respective rallies in North Bengal

ing efforts to ensure that your roads reach you. Without naming Rahul, Mamata responded: Leaders from Delhi are claiming they have given us crores of rupees and we never spend it. Shameless leaders those who have never known what poverty is, those who are born as landlords are now talking big. They deducted Rs 74,000 crore towards debt repayment and left us to beg. We cannot pay salaries of our employees. I cant sleep at night thinking of how to generate pension funds. They didnt deduct so much money from the CPM government.

She said her government would have taken up more development projects for minorities, farmers and students in backward areas had the centre not deprived us. Rahul tried to invoke the Bengali pride by saying that the state has contributed in a huge manner for the country but has not progressed as desired. Earlier, there was a communist government here. Communism failed in Russia and fortunately also in Bengal. People had hoped the new government will work for development, for education, and for creating jobs and employment. Unfortunately the Trinamool government has done the same things for which it fought against the communists. With Baichung Bhutia by her side, Mamata said she had come armed with facts and figures. Our government has been deprived of Rs 87,283 crore in the past three years, she said. Do not vote for Congress. We are fighting alone because we are brave.