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AIRCRAFT WEIGHT PREDICTION

Introduction It is the firm conviction of many aircraft designers that one of the most important functions of aircraft design is weight control. The engineering department generally depends solely on the weight group for basic weight estimates on new designs and assumes contractual obligations on these estimates. Both underestimation and over-estimation of the gross weight have their pitfalls. If the weight estimate is too high, it is impossible to compete with other companies; and if too low, serious financial penalities are assessed and no production orders are received, which usually is the prime issue at stake. These items affect the preliminary design section. Other sections of the engineering department are vitally affected by the weight estimate. The aerodynamics section must have certain specified center of gravity limits for stability and controllability calculations. If the estimator misses these c.g. limits too far, necessary design changes result. If the gross weight goes over the estimate, performance guarantees can not be met, and, conversely, if the gross weight goes under, a contract may be lost because the performance guarantees are too low. The effect of weight on performance is not merely a question of converting weight into performance, but is indirectly obtained from the variations in wing span, power-loadings, etc., caused by the changing weight. The problem that confronts designers of high performance aircraft is essentially one of compromise among those factors that, as a whole, are the prerequisites of a good aircraft. To favor any one of these factors will generally be at the expense of one or more of the others. Thus, what is gained in one direction will have its compensating loss in another, resulting usually in an airplane of one good characteristic, but definitely limited as to others. The relative importance of these factors is highly controversial; therefore, no attempt at their evaluation is made. Nevertheless, a few of the more prominent performance factors are arbitrarily listed: speed, rate of climb, striking power, range, maneuverability, take-off distance, and landing speed. Viewing the problem as a whole, it is necessary to consider two distinct categories separately: namely, military and commercial. Although certain fundamental requirements apply equally to both fields, the specific mission for which an airplane is intended governs how each design factor should be evaluated in order to arrive at the optimum design. If the center of gravity (c.g.) is allowed to be too far ahead of the center of pressure the aircraft will dive out of control. If the c.g. is allowed to be too far behind the center of pressure the aircraft will stall. There is a range, generally ahead of the center of pressure, in which the center of gravity must be located to preserve safety of flight. In this range there is an optimum point at which the aircraft is the most stable, most controllable, and most effective. Any location of the c.g. either fore or aft of this optimum point endangers safety by reducing the stability, controllability, and effectiveness of the aircraft to an extent comparable to its distance from the optimum point. Weight affects flying speed only slightly but has a marked influence upon take-off and landing speeds. More thrust is required for a heavier weight and if the greater thrust cannot be developed within the limits of the take-off runway and its obstacles, safety is definitely at stake. As a result of the development of higher stalling speed, additional weight will increase the landing speed. Safety is thus diminished, for a given aircraft, with faster landing speeds. Extra weight may make it impossible to land an aircraft safely within the limits of the landing field and its surrounding obstacles. Overweight diminishes safety margins of the aircraft structure by imposing loads heavier than those for which the aircraft is designed. Such reduction in margins may limit safety quite critically when the aircraft encounters rough air or poor landing fields. Rate of climb and climbing angle are both decreased by additional weight. Such impairing of climbing characteristics may mean the difference between success and failure in military operations, or may spell disaster for either commercial or military operations over mountainous terrain.

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In the case of an all moving tail surface a heavier tail may be more desirable than a lighter versions, if the inertia of the heavier tail is less. Lower inertia may allow a significantly reduced weight of hydraulic and flight control system due to reduced flutter stiffness requirements. Thus, in the total picture, the heavier, low-inertia tail configuration is lighter. Therefore, the search for factors that affect the total airplane system weight has to include not only the first order effects of a design decision, but also the second and third order effects. Weight control can be described as the process by which the lighest possible airplane is derived within the constraints of the governing design criteria. Entire on reasonable and sound weight estimates can go sour in the design phase if the various staff and design specialists are allowed to forget the overall objective of compromise design. Airplane design is a series of compromises. Every design alternative has a weight effect. Good knowledge of these weight effects is a necessary ingredient in making good design decisions. Good design decisions do not necessarily result in minimum weight. Airplane Weight and Center of Gravity Weight and center of gravity prediction of an aircraft serves a multitude of purposes, the more important of which are listed below: a. Design weight and center of gravity data must be provided to other engineering groups. Data is required for analysis of flutter and dynamic problems, by the Basic Loads and Stress Groups for calculation of structural loads and stresses, and by the Aerodynamics Group for calculation of performance and control characteristics. b. The Manufacturing Organization must be furnished weight and center of gravity data for use in designing assembly fixtures and for safe and efficient handling of large components. c. Engineering management must be informed at all times of the weight and center of gravity represented by the current airplane design configuration. It is only with this information constantly at hand that the design effort can be guided to meet guaranteed payload and performance capabilities. d. Technical data must be forwarded to the customer in accordance with contractual requirements. Data submitted during the design stage is needed by the customer for evaluation of contractor progress in meeting weight and center of gravity commitments. Final data submitted is compiled with similar data from other manufacturers to form a basis for the analysis of future airplane proposals. e. Weight data must be compiled for each airplane produced in order to improve the accuracy of weight estimation methods and to provide the only data base for the estimation of future airplanes. f. Component weights are needed by the Price Estimating Department. A weight/cost relationship, derived from previous airplane designs, is often utilized in conjunction with other data in establishing the airplane price. Other Aspects The more important aspects of weight engineering are listed below: a. Accurately predict weight and balance characteristics of all airplanes from the time of original conception to time of delivery and recommend corrective action for unfavorable trends. b. Determine weight for proposed products consistent with mission requirements and assist in establishing guaranteed weights. c. Promote lightweight design practices throughout the life of the product in order to maintain the most saleable product possible. d. Cooperate with Project Engineering, Staff Engineering, Equipment and Standards Engineering and other organizations to achieve weight control. e. Weigh aircraft for verification of predicted data and to ensure meeting all flight safety criteria. f. Ensure that all weight and balance contractual commitments to customers and certifymg agencies are satisfactorily met.

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design parameters; it is not usually a design parameter in itself. However, if the reserve tank is required to be empty at maximum landing weight, because of fatigue or dutch roll considerations, then it may well become a design factor. Weight Prediction Weight engineering consists of four distinct phases: preliminary design, project, flight and research. (1) Preliminary Design Stage The preliminary design phase of aeronautical engineering is defined as the phase in which a new aircraft is conceived. It is during this phase that size, arrangement, and propulsion characteristics as well as mission requirements and flight performance are established. Preliminary estimation of weight is one of the first steps in the evolution of a new design. The preliminary weight, available power, and required performance are the basic parameters which determine the size and general configuration of the aircraft. This initial estimate depends primarily on empirical equations derived from analysis of existing aircraft. These equations determine the first approximate gross weight for the aerodynamicist. As preliminary design progresses, it should proceed to refine the weight estimate to the extent that time, skill, and the definition of the aircraft permit. Since the final size and cost of the aircraft are strongly influenced by the estimated weight at this stage, accuracy is of importance. In a typical aircraft one pound of excess empty airplane weight may result in an addition of ten pounds to the gross weight of the aircraft requires to maintain the same performance. In missiles and space vehicles the addition is often even more. If the weight estimate is too low, it may be impossible to achieve the weight guaranteed to the customer - with interesting economic consequences. (2) Project Stage When the preliminary design effort results in a decision to proceed with production, design is referred to as the project stage. To produce a competitive airplane, performance and payload capabilities must be maintained at the highest possible level consistent with operational requirements. Strictly speaking, it is these airplane weight which are sold to the customer. Since for a fixed gross weight each additional pound in the basic empty airplane weight results in either a decrease in payload or a penalty in performance, therefore structure and system weights must be held to a minimum. Weight Control engineering is devoted to this end. It is apparent that creation of an efficient design is a compromise between the aerodynamicist, designer, structure engineer, and other specialists who must all have as a goal the minimum weight design that will meet their particular requirements to the task of maintaining the highest possible performance and payload capabilities of the airplane. This is a continuous task from airplane conception through final delivery. (3) Flight Stage Flight weight engineering deals with operational weight and balance control. This specialized group is responsible for the weight and balance control of the airplane from the time it leaves the assembly manufacturing area until it is delivered to the customer. Functions of the group may include weighmg the aircraft, providing weight and balance control during the engineering and production flight test periods, and preparing an aircraft weight and balance report for delivery with each airplane. Each airplane is weighed to establish an accurate base for weight and balance control in the flight test stage. In establishing the basic weight and center of gravity of each airplane a complete equipment inventory is conducted. Subsequent changes are closely monitored and the airplanes are reweighed as necessary to ensure accuracy. (4) Research (Method & Data)