Why populations grow and decline Population regulation Biotic interaction

a group of individuals belonging to the same species occupying the same place at the same time

 Population

a group of individuals of a single species inhabiting a specific area (Molles, 2005) in addition, functioning as part of a biotic community (Odum & Garrett, 2005); O&G also preferred space to area For widely distributed species, therefore, there are local populations. ASSIGN: What are metapopulations?

 Attributes

of single populations Population growth and regulation Life history strategies Interspecific interactions

Unitary and Modular Populations

Metapopulations Populations as genetic units Density and Dispersion Age Structure Sex Ratios Mortality and Natality

 Unitary Modular

Genets Ramets

group of distinct, partially isolated subpopulations

In widely separated discrete patches of breeding habitat within a matrix of unsuitable habitats

that

are linked only by dispersal / migration

 Gene

pool sum of all genetic information carried by individuals of an interbreeding population Gene flow occurs when there is exchange of genetic info bet popns (via migrations) Populations are considered as evolutionary units

 Density

the size of a population in relation to a definite unit of space 1. Crude density measure of the number of individuals per unit area

But popns dont occupy all the space within a unit

2.

Ecological Density measured in terms of the amount of area available as living space/habitat space (e.g. number of birds per km of hedgerow rather than per hectare)

 ALSO

crude density tells nothing about how indiv are distributed over an area Patterns of Dispersion

Uniform Random Clumped

Patterns of dispersion Clumped / Clustered / Aggregated

Definition Individuals are aggregated in patches

Factors Environmental heterogeneity, social behavior, nature of propagation (most common)

Uniform / Regular

Even spacing

Antagonistic interactions of individuals in the population; intraspecific competition, territoriality Absence of strong interactions or repulsions among individuals of a population; uniform envt, resources equally available (rare)

Random

Spacing varies in an unpredictable way

Clumped

indicating a population wherein individuals seek the help of other members of the population in order to survive

Uniform

a.k.a. regular or even indicating a population with very high competition between individuals

Random

indicating a population occupying an area with more than enough resources; competition is very minimal

 It

is generally & usually very difficult, if not outright impossible, to know the actual population size, especially of small, minute &/or mobile organisms at any given time.

ESTIMATE from a sample

 relative

abundance - relative to sampling unit of time or space - e.g. # of butterflies / hr of observation, frequency of occurrence - percentage of sampling plots where species occurs cover percentage of ground surface covered as determined by the projection of aerial parts importance value in vegetation studies, often a combination of density, dominance & frequency

 limited

by trophic levels

after Odum & Garrett (2005: 226)

Range of population density (biomass/ha) of various mammals relative to trophic level position

 Basal

area (total cross-section area of tree trunks) used by forest ecologists

 Commercial

catch per volume of water or cast of net of known area or volume (fisheries)

 Lincoln-Peterson

index Minimum known alive (MKA) Quadrat or transect sampling Plotless methods

 capture-mark-recapture

method

x C1
where,

C2 RC2

x = population estimate C1 = # of animals captured & marked in sample 1 C2 = # of animals captured in sample 2 RC2 = # of marked animals recaptured with sample 2

simpler version:

2 1 = # 2

Your group will receive a bag that represents your population (beans, candies, etc.) A subset of this population has been pre-captured and pre-marked as green individuals. Without looking, grab a handful of the population. This is the recapture step. Record the number of individuals recaptured in total and the number that have a mark on them. Compute for the estimated total population size. Return the individuals to the bag and repeat. Do several recaptures equal to the number of members in the group. When all the recaptures are completed, get the average of the estimated total population size.

 ratio

of marked to unmarked individuals in the population (as a whole) = ratio of marked to unmarked individuals in a sample of the population However, on average, L-P index overestimates population size

 Minimum

known alive (MKA) Also capture-mark-recapture method Estimates population densities over extended period calendar of catches (Petrusewicz & Andrzejewski, 1962) Uses capture history (calendar) for each individual

 involves

counting of organisms of a single species in plots or transects of appropriate size & number Objective: to get an estimate of the density of the area sampled

 Applicable

to sessile organisms (trees) Example: point-centered quarter method based on a series of random points; distance to nearest individual is measured in each of 4 quarters at each point along this series of random points density / unit area estimated from mean distance

 Use

appropriate or at least the most widely accepted sampling methodology for the target group Take note of peculiarities and specific characteristics especially behavior, mobility, etc. For conservation issues: Are you sampling The Last of the Mohicans, so to speak? There is no substitute for experience

 Usually,

it is more important to know whether a population is changing (i.e. increasing or decreasing) than to know its size at any single unit of time.

 Spatial

random, uniform, clumped Temporal

Circadian Seasonal And over longer periods of time

 Emigration

& Immigration (out/in; no return

trip)
Passive (esp. plants) distance travelled depends on the quality of the dispersal agent Active (mobile animals) young vs adults vs subadults; male vs female

Natal dispersal Breeding dispersal

 Dispersal

decreases during periods of population

decline Dispersers seek vacant habitat distance depends on surrounding envt Exploratory forays before leaving natal site Rule of dispersal: move to the 1st uncontested site and no further

 Migration

dispersal with a return to the place of origin; in response to an evolutionary or environmental adaptation or pressure

Repeated - Daily, seasonal (short- or long-range) Only 1 return trip (e.g. pacific salmon) Only offsprings return (e.g. monarch butterfly)

 Age

distribution proportion of individuals belonging to each age group Gives an echo of past events influencing the population May predict future outcomes 3 types:
Expanding Stable

Stationary

Declining

 Proportion

of males to females Primary sex ratio (the ratio at conception) tends to be 1:1 Secondary sex ratio (the ratio at birth) Sex ratios shift from 1:1 at birth to an unequal one later in life

Differences in genetics, physiology, behavior

 Modular

structure and asexual reproduction impose difficulties Age may not tell enough Age structure is less useful than some size criterion (e.g. diameter classes) Age structure of modular units What about the seed bank in the soil? Plant growth stages

 Age

structure reflects 2 continuous processes:

Mortality (deaths) and Natality (births)

Death

rate = # of deaths during a given time

interval divided by the average population

Probability

of dying = # of deaths divided by the

# alive at the beginning of the period

 Given:

No = 1000 Nt = 600 Then

400 (1000+600)2 400 1000

400 800

= 0.5

= 0.4

Probability of surviving = # of survivors divided by the # alive at the beginning of the period

. =

600 1000

= 0.6

OR simply, 1 . = 1 0.4 = 0.6 Because the # of survivors is more important Mortality is expressed as Life Expectancy = ave. # of years to be lived in the future by members of a given age in the population

 Greatest

influence on popn increase in 2 ways:

Described

Maximum or Physiological Natality = maximum possible number of births under ideal conditions; biological
limit; biotic potential

Realized Natality = amount of successful reproduction that actually occurs over a period of time

 Maximum

reproductive capacity of a population if resources are unlimited

Environmental

resistance -any
condition that inhibits the increase in number of the population

 Favorable

abiotic factors: light, temp., cheml. envt., etc.

Biotic factors
High reproductive rate

Birth rate = proportion of births per total pon (e.g. 50 births per 1000 per year)

Fecundity = potential reproductive capacity; number of gametes produced per organism

Fertility = actual reproductive capacity; ave. # of offsprings born per female (e.g. 3.15 children / woman)

 Biological

determinants Age reproductive age Health and nutrition affects birth wt and survival Environment effects on fecundity, conception, delivery, care

59

 Social

determinants

Social norms and acceptance of practices affecting fertility differ from society to society. Marriage age? Breast feeding Contraception

Used by ~60% of all married couples. Availability of contraceptive devices and social attitudes toward their use

http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/

Increase popn

Decrease popn

General niche Suitable habitat Adequate resources High competitive ability Hide from predators Resist diseases and parasites Dispersion to a more suitable habitat Adaptations to envtl changes

Specialized niche Unfavorable conditions Inadequate resources Low competitive ability Insufficient defense against predators, diseases, and parasites Limited dispersal Insufficient adaptive traits for envtl. changes

POPULATION GROWTH FORMS

J- shaped

Popn. inc. exponentially then abruptly dies due to envtl. resistance Exponential Growth Curve
Optimal envtl. conditions and abundant resources over a short period

Growth of reindeer herd introduced in St. Paul Island in Alaska in 1910

POPULATION GROWTH FORMS

S-shaped or sigmoid

population increases slowly (lag phase) at first then more rapidly (log phase) but then slows down again until the popn size is more or less constant (stationary phase) due to envtl resistance Logistic growth curve

A. B.

C.

D.

E.

Exponential Logistic Logistic growth with discrete generations Logistic growth with medium time lag (dampened oscillations) Logistic growth with large time lag

Density-dependent factors
Influence

Density-independent factors

a popn. in proportion to its size (negative feedback mechanism) Intraspecific competition

Effects do not change proportionately w/ popn density Proportion of indiv. Affected is the same at any density Does not regulate populations but may have significant effects on popn size.

Competition results only when a needed resource is in short supply relative to the number seeking it. Scramble competition all competing individuals garner

such a small share of the resources that none survive

Exploitative competition - each individual is affected by the amount of shared resource remaining; scramble-like
but less severe In both, there is no direct interaction between

individuals.

 Contest/Interference

competition Only a

fraction of the population obtains all the

resources it needs while the others get less and produce no offspring or die.
There

is direct interaction between individuals.

Increased
Reduced

stress physiological effects

growth, fecundity, and fertility Self-thinning in plants

Increased

dispersal Intensification of social interactions

Dominance Territoriality

 Popn

size is determined by both D-d and D-i factors By themselves, D-i factors do NOT regulate popn size but may have considerable impact In general, the influence of weather is stochastic (irregular and unpredictable); and it functions largely by affecting food supply
Example:

Acorns and Squirrels

Proximate cause low food supply vs. high popn Ultimate cause - weather

Matthias Feuersenger, XC112219. Accessible at www.xeno-canto.org/112219

Reproduction

is the major vocation of all living

things GOAL: maximize the number of descendants survival of the species Who, how, how many, how often?

It is the reason for bright colors and fragrances of flowers, songs of birds, flashing of fireflies at night, antlers of deer

Reproduction

is metabolically EXPENSIVE BUDGET of energy expenditures (allocations)

RE = Nature and amount of allocations to reproduction over time

Parental Care Parental Investment (one-time-big-time or save-somefor-later?)

Semelparous one massive suicidal reproductive effort

Iteroparous repeated reproduction early or later?

TRADE-OFFS

Other decisions: clutch / brood size, age/size before reproduction, gender allocation

r- strategist
r = ruderal = temporary Many small and unprotected young strategy Reproduce and disappear rapidly when conditions are favourable

Population crash during unfavourable environmental conditions

Irregular and unstable boom and bust cycles

Characteristics

Many small offsprings Little or no parental care and protection of offsprings Most offsprings die before reaching reproductive maturity Small adults Adapted to unstable climate & environmental conditions

High population growth rate Population size fluctuates wildly above & below carrying capacity Generalized niche Low ability to compete Early successional species

K- strategist
K= carrying capacity ; maximum number of individuals in a population that the environment can sustain Few but large young strategy Typically develops inside mother (safe) Common in fairly stable late successional environments where competition for resources is intense

Characteristics

Fewer, larger offsprings Parental care or cooperative breeding/brooding & protection of offspring

Lower population growth rate Population size is fairly stable and usually close to carrying capacity Specialist niche Highly able to compete Late successional species

Most offsprings survive to reproductive age

Larger adults Adapted to stable climate and environmental conditions

 Vary

from one species to another

Dictated by environment

recorded

as part of life tables Can be estimated by:

Cohort life tables Static life tables Age distribution/population profiles

 aka

dynamic life table Cohort a group of individuals born at the same time or over a short period
used

to determine age- or stage-specific fecundity and mortality rates, survivorship, and basic reproductive rates, enables an analysis of their annual variation.

x ax lx
dx

life stage or age class total number of individuals observed at each stage or class proportion of original number of individuals surviving to the next stage or class; survivorship
proportion of original number of individuals dying during each stage or class; mortality

qx kx Fx mx
lxmx R0

mortality rate for each stage or class "killing power;" total fecundity, or reproductive output of entire population, for each stage or class individual fecundity, or mean reproductive output, for each stage or class
number of offspring produced per original individual during each stage or class; product of survival and reproduction basic reproductive rate

Age (days) 0-63 63-124 124-184

ax 996 668 295

lx 1.000 0.671 0.296

dx 0.329 0.375 0.105

qx 0.006 0.013 0.007

Fx ----

mx ----

lxmx ----

184-215 215-264
264-278 278-292 292-306

190 176
172 167 159

0.191 0.177
0.173 0.168 0.160

0.014 0.004
0.005 0.008 0.005

0.003 0.002
0.002 0.004 0.002

----53.0

----0.33

----0.05

306-320
320-334 334-348 348-362

154
147 105 22

0.155
0.148 0.105 0.022

0.007
0.043 0.083 0.022

0.003
0.025 0.106 1.000

485.0
802.7 972.7 94.8

3.13
5.42 9.26 4.31

0.49
0.80 0.97 0.10

 contains

the age groups in a population at one particular period of time.

cohorts are not followed in time reconstructed using one-time observations.

The

assumption is that the mortality experienced by the cohort at any age stays constant in time.

birth rates and age-specific survivorship are assumed to be independent of the actual year in which the observations are made.

Survivorship

curves Population growth rates

Population Growth Rate

Speed of increase in population size, r [(Nx-No) / No] x 100% Example: 1995 2000 2007 66.62M Filipino 76.51M 88.58M

r95-00 = (76.51 66.62) / 66.62 = 14.85% = 2.48%/yr r00-07 = (88.58 76.51) / 76.52 = 15.77% = 1.97%/yr

Growth Rate of Different Countries (2012)

Rank
1 2 3 4 5

Country
Qatar Zimbabwe Niger Uganda Ethiopia

Population growth rate

4.93 4.36 3.63 3.58 3.18

Growth Rate of Different Countries

Rank
62 63 64 65 66

Country
Philippines Marshall Islands Honduras Tajikistan Ghana

Population growth rate

1.87 1.87 1.84 1.82 1.79

Growth Rate of Different Countries

Rank
190 191 192 193

Country

Population growth rate

0 0 0 0

Pitcairn Islands Bosnia and Herzegovina Cocos Islands Holy See (Vatican)

Growth Rate of Different Countries

Rank
230 231 227 228 229 230

Country

Population growth rate

-0.80 -0.97 -0.98 -1.01 -2.45 -3.14

Bulgaria Jordan St. Pierre and Miquelon Moldova Northern Mariana Islands Cook Islands

Doubling Time

Time it will take for a population to increase its size by 100% given the current growth rate

n = ln 2 / ln [1+ (r/100)] Ex. 2011 Phil growth rate = 1.873% n= 37.35 years (about 38 years)

Rough formula is 72/growth rate