Unit-3 Probabilistic Reasoning

By: Virendra Kumar Yadav

Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Probability Theory
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For dealing with the uncertainty, the oldest and widely used is probability theory. Uncertainty in probability theory is measured by a real number between 0 (impossible event) and 1(sure event). At most all the problems of interest involve at least some uncertain events. Decisions were based on subjective judgment.

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Cont
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The event that there will be a nuclear war before the year 3,000. Average temperature of the surface of the earth will raise by the year 2,050. The subjectivist view allows for a meaningful treatment of such events. The aim of a probabilistic logic is to combine the power of probability theory and deductive logic to handle uncertainty.

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Bayes Theorem
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Bayes developed probability technique that is based on prediction that something will happen because of the evidence that something has happened in the past. This probability is called conditional probability. According to definition of conditional probability, the probability of occurrences of an event say B knowing that an event A has occurred in the past is called conditional probability of occurrence of B and is denoted P(B/A).
Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC 4

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Cont
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If A was the first to occur then we can drive P(A AND B) = P(B/A) x P(A)

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Utility Theory
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In artificial intelligence, we design agents that make intelligent decisions. Agents pick states based on their utilities. A utility function assigns a single number to express the desirability of a state.

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Expected utility theory

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Decision theory for a single agent. Example 1: Planning a party- a game against nature our agent is planning a party, and is worried about whether it will rain or not.
Rain (p=1/3)
Outside Inside 1 2

Party Planners

No Rain (~p = 2/3)

3 2

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

Cont
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The expected utility of an action A given uncertainty about a state S = Probability (S | A) * Utility (S | A)+ Probability (not S | A) Utility (not S | A). EU (Outside) = (1/3)(1) + (2/3)(3) = 2.67 EU(Inside) = (1/3)(2) + (2/3)(2) = 2 Therefore, choose outside, the action with the higher expected utility.
Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC 8

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Forward Deduction (FORWARD CHAINING)

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A form of reasoning that starts with what is known and works toward a solution. Also known as bottom approach. For example, suppose that the goal is to conclude the color of my pet Fritz, given that he croaks and eat flies, and that the rule base contains the following two rules: 1. If X croaks and eats flies - then X is a frog. 2. If X is frog then X is green.
Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC 9

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Cont
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The given rule (first) would first be added to the knowledge base, as the rule base is searched for a consequent that matches its antecedent. This is true for the first rule, so the conclusion (that X is frog) is also added to the knowledge base, and the rule base is again searched. This time, the second rule antecedent matches our consequent, so we add to our knowledge base the new conclusion. But we have now accomplished our goal(the color of X).
Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC 10

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Backward Deduction (Backward Chaining)

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A form of reasoning that starts with the conclusion and works backward. Backward chaining starts with a list of goals and works backwards to see if data is available that will support any of these goals. This method is called goal driven.

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

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END OF THE LECTURE

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Virendra Kumar Yadav, Asst. Prof., ABES-EC

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