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How Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate The Middle East
How Nuclear Talks Help Iran Dominate The Middle East
Iran is seeking to create symmetry in its relations with the United States and to make clear that Iranian power like American power extends far beyond its borders. Iran has even dispatched a battle group of ships toward the U.S. consisting of a destroyer and a helicopter-carrying supply ship. The only U.S. policy that had proved successful the tightening of the sanctions is now falling apart. Irans international legitimacy is on the rebound, while the delegitimization of Israel keeps intensifying. From Irans standpoint, the nuclear talks are creating an atmosphere where the economic pressure will subside as Iran gains time to fill in the missing pieces of its nuclear program. Irans foreign policy is gaining momentum, as it seeks to persuade the Gulf states to align with it while they can still do so peacefully and come under its security umbrella. Iran hopes to wield power over the entire event horizon in the Islamic world of the Middle East and Central Asia in the period of the post-Arab Spring (or, as Iran puts it, the Islamic Awakening). The nuclear talks allow Iran to keep developing those parts of its nuclear program essentially, the military component that have not yet come to full fruition, while it makes concessions in areas such as uranium enrichment where it already has a proven capacity. Thus, Iran is hewing to its strategy of nuclear progress. Meanwhile, the lack of significant enemies in its geostrategic domain enables Iran to conduct the nuclear talks at a relaxed pace. That approach is only further encouraged by the ongoing, evident feebleness of the United States and the West in trying to resolve the Syrian crisis. Thus, Iran foresees no substantial danger as it keeps marching toward its strategic goals.
A Historical Hostility
As the Vienna talks approached, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei just as he had before the round in November expressed pessimism but said he was not against holding the talks. Khamenei again attacked the United States and its historically hostile stance toward Iran, which, he claimed, has not changed. Khamenei made similar remarks on February 11 for the thirty-fifth anniversary of the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution. On several occasions Khamenei, along with Foreign Ministry spokesmen, asserted that the nuclear issue is nothing but an ongoing pretext for the United States, which will find another pretext even if it is resolved. He said the Foreign Ministrys mission that is, the nuclear talks would continue and Iran would not renege on its promises, even though I say that the thing is unnecessary and the talks will not lead anywhere.But the Foreign Ministry people will continue the effort. Khamenei took that opportunity to aver that Iranians massive turnout for the Revolution Day processions had dealt a crushing blow to U.S. policy and goals and exposed its real face, including the fact that i t will never renounce its hostility and hatred toward Iran.6
Despite the attacks on the United States by the Supreme Leader and other Iranian officials, and apparently to support the Iranian diplomatic effort in Vienna, Khamenei published on his Twitter and Facebook accounts (social networks are off limits to ordinary Iranian citizens) a summation of his statements about nuclear weapons being in violation of Islamic law. Iran claims that Khamenei has even issued a fatwa prohibiting the possession and use of such weapons. This, however, is part of Irans public -diplomacy campaign, and in reality he has never published any such fatwa.7 Among other such declarations, a post by Khamenei on Facebook asserts:
Nuclear weapons are neither a security provider, nor a source of consolidation of political power but rather a threat to both. The events of the 1990s proved that possessing such weapons would not save any regimes including the Soviet Union. Today as well, we know countries that are faced with fatal torrents of insecurity, despite having nuclear bombs. Amid the euphoria over a possible improvement in U.S.-Iranian relations since the signing of the nuclear interim agreement, the Iranian leadership has made clear that it opposes introducing any additional issues to the talks and that renewing ties with Washington is not even on the agenda. Iran also stresses that the talks with the West are solely confined to nuclear matters and will not encompass such issues as its missile program or its human rights practices. Human rights organizations that monitor Iran have in fact reported a dramatic increase in the number of executions since Rouhani was elected.
Officials of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have been emphasizing Irans strategic status, along with its stability compared to other regional states that are undergoing the impact of the Arab Spring (or Islamic Awakening, as Iran calls it). Hassan Salami, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guard, proclaimed recently in a series of interviews that Iran is at a historical turning point, facing complex challenges both for itself and for the world of Islam. Geostrategic and geopolitical developments are affecting the international and regional arenas, including Iran, and undermining the old order crafted by Western powers. Salami asserted that the new that is, Islamic order is rooted in Islamic ideology, which is pushing out the Western, capitalist one. He cited Hizbullah as an example, calling it an organization permeated with faith and ideology.Today no equation can materialize in the Middle East without taking Hizbullah into account. On the other hand, he claimed, the United States is losing its footholds in the region, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq. As for Iran, Salami emphasized that it aims to make the most of its geopolitical status. The potential and propitious location of the Persian Gulf are completely in the hands of Iran and this fact can instill fear and deter its enemies.We have the ability to influence the minds of our enemies.Every time we talk about our capacity and our geopolitical and geostrategic status, we stir up anxiety in the world.9
falling apart. Irans international legitimacy is on the rebound, while the delegitimization of Isr ael keeps intensifying. From Irans standpoint, then, the nuclear talks are creating an atmosphere where the economic pressure will subside, as Iran meanwhile gains time to fill in the missing pieces of its nuclear program. Some of the frozen assets have already been transferred to Iran as promised. Irans foreign policy is gaining momentum. That includes its attempts, as in the foreign ministers visits to the Gulf states, to portray itself as the next big thing in the region (in lieu of the United State s) and to persuade the Gulf states to align with Iran while they can still do so peacefully and come under its security umbrella. Iran hopes to wield power over the entire event horizon in the Islamic world of the Middle East and Central Asia, and even in the arena of international crises (despite its exclusion from the Geneva 2 talks on the Syrian imbroglio, which in any case have failed). In Afghanistan, Iran is trying to create a security framework with Karzai, while urging him not to enter such an arrangement with the United States and instead to wait for its departure. In this way, too, Iran seeks to expand its influence in the region. The nuclear talks enable Iran to present itself as sharing the same status as the main international power brokers. This, in turn, helps it portray itself as a regional sometimes even international superpower, and to augment its role on the world stage. Moreover, the talks allow Iran to keep developing those parts of its nuclear program essentially, the military component that have not yet come to full fruition, while Iran makes concessions in areas such as uranium enrichment where it already has a proven capacity. Thus Iran is hewing to its strategy of nuclear progress. From Irans standpoint, the culmination o f that progress which means having a bomb, even if it takes time will put the final seal on its regional and international status. Meanwhile, regional developments, and particularly the lack of significant enemies in its geostrategic domain, enable it to conduct the nuclear talks at a relaxed pace. That approach is only further encouraged by the ongoing, evident feebleness of the United States and the West in trying to resolve the Syrian crisis, which has become a battlefield between Saudi Arabia and Iran and a bloody manifestation of the SunniShiite rift. Thus, Iran foresees no substantial danger as it keeps marching toward its strategic goals. As President Obama and his administration keep pursuing the policy of active passivity that they have devised, Americas status in the region only continues to decline.
* Notes
4. http://www.inn.ir/NSite/FullStory/News/?Serv=1&Id=203535&Rate=0 5. http://kayhan.ir/fa/news/4838 6. http://www.irdc.ir/en/content/40467/default.aspx; http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index.php?p=contentShow&id=11476 7. https://www.facebook.com/www.Khamenei.ir; https://twitter.com/khamenei_ir/status/435764061481885696 8. http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/02/09/349870/iran-naval-fleet-to-near-us-border 9. http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13910310000860#sthash.uO6w13cI.dpuf 10. http://www.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=13921112002036