Future ooding and coastal erosion risks

Edited by

Colin R. Thorne, Edward P. Evans and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell

Published by Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd, 1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD. www.thomastelford.com Distributors for Thomas Telford books are USA: ASCE Press, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, VA 20191-4400 Japan: Maruzen Co. Ltd, Book Department, 310 Nihonbashi 2-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103 Australia: DA Books and Journals, 648 Whitehorse Road, Mitcham 3132, Victoria First published 2007 Also available from Thomas Telford Books Flood Risk Management. Edited by G. Fleming. ISBN 0 7277 3112 3 Coastal Defence ICE Design and Practice Guide. Institution of Civil Engineers. ISBN 0 7277 3005 3

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-7277-3449-5 # Queens Printer and Controller of HMSO 2007 Copyright in the typographical arrangement and design vests in the Crown Published under licence for the Department of Trade and Industry Applications for reproduction should be made in writing to: The Licensing Division, Her Majestys Stationery Oce, St Clements House, 216 Colegate, Norwich NR3 1BQ The contents of this publication is for information purposes only. The Crown accepts no liability for loss or damage of any kind howsoever arising as a result of actions taken in reliance on information contained in this publication. All rights, including translation, reserved. Except as permitted by the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the Publishing Director, Thomas Telford Publishing, Thomas Telford Ltd, 1 Heron Quay, London E14 4JD. This book is published on the understanding that the authors are solely responsible for the statements made and opinions expressed in it and that its publication does not necessarily imply that such statements and/or opinions are or reect the views or opinions of the publishers. While every eort has been made to ensure that the statements made and the opinions expressed in this publication provide a safe and accurate guide, no liability or responsibility can be accepted in this respect by the authors or publishers. Typeset by Academic Technical, Bristol Printed and bound in Great Britain by MPG Books, Bodmin, Cornwall

Contents
Dedication Preface Professor Sir David King List of contributors Part 1 1 Introduction 3 x xi xiii

Overview Edward P. Evans, Jim W. Hall, Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell and Colin R. Thorne The task we have undertaken The evolving policy context The science and technology backdrop Flood impacts and policy change New directions in risk analysis Scenario analysis Post-project perspective References

3 4 5 6 8 9 10 11 13 13 15 18 22 24 24 25 26 27 29

Introduction to the Foresight Future Flooding methodology Jim W. Hall, Jonathan D. Simm and Edward P. Evans Overview Conceptual framework Scenario analysis Quantied ood risk assessment Quantied analysis of responses Expert analysis of drivers Expert analysis of responses to ood risk Discussion References

Environmental impacts of future ood risk Andrew R. Watkinson, Robert J. Nicholls, David A. Sear and Laure Ledoux Introduction Environmental impacts of ood management Environmental impacts of changes in ooding

29 30 33

iii

Contents
Implications of current trends of change in ood management for the environment Foresight futures and the environment Environmental economics Conclusions Acknowledgements References Part 2 4 Drivers of ood risk 49 49 49 50 50 50 56 59 61 62 64 64 65 68 70 75 77 79 80 82 82 83 89 93 96 97 98 100 100 102 104 106 112 114 114

36 37 41 44 44 44

Climate change Nick S. Reynard Introduction Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Changes in precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration Estimating the eects of climate change on ooding Uncertainty Conclusions References

Catchment land-use Joe Morris and Howard Wheater Introduction Rural land-use management Urbanisation Agricultural impacts Driver interactions Driver behaviour under possible future scenarios Conclusions References

River processes Stuart N. Lane and C.R. Thorne Introduction Morphology and sediment supply Conveyance Environment, ecosystems and habitats Case example: sediment delivery, morphological response and ood risk Conclusions References

Human behaviour David J. Ball and Colin H. Green Introduction The human behaviour drivers Stakeholder behaviour Public attitudes and expectations Forecasting the eect of the human behaviour drivers on ood risk Concluding remarks References

iv

Contents
8 Socio-economic drivers, cities and science Colin H. Green and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell Introduction Social impacts Economic and sectoral impacts Urban impacts Infrastructure impacts Science and technology Conclusions References 9 Coastal processes Claire Hinton, Ian H. Townend and Robert J. Nicholls Introduction Coastal process driver set Future risk of coastal ooding References 10 Urban change Adrian J. Saul and Richard M. Ashley Background The extent of the urban ooding Flood mechanisms in the intra-urban zone Primary ood mechanisms Secondary factors that increase or reduce ooding risk Summary of factors that inuence urban ood risk Identication of relevant drivers Driver ranking and uncertainty Quantied ood risk intra-urban Future research needs Summary References 11 Other ood risks and their drivers Stuart N. Lane Groundwater ooding in permeable catchments Muddy oods Floods related to infrastructure and ordinary water courses outside indicative oodplains References 12 Driver impact scoring, ranking and uncertainty Jonathan D. Simm, Colin R. Thorne and Jim W. Hall Introduction Driver impacts on local ood risk National driver impact scores Ranking driver impacts on future ood risk Uncertainty assessment Reconciliation of driver scores with the results of quantitative assessment of ood risk drivers Concluding remarks References 116 116 116 119 123 126 128 130 130 132 132 132 146 147 149 149 150 151 151 154 156 156 156 161 168 168 169 173 173 180 182 183 185 185 186 192 193 197 202 204 205

Contents
Part 3 13 Assessment of drivers and risks 209 209 210 212 214 216 223 225 225 227 227 228 230 232 233 236 238 239 242 244 244 252 255 258 260 262 263

Quantitative assessment of driver impacts on future ood risk in England and Wales Jim W. Hall, Paul B. Sayers, Mike Panzeri and Robert Deakin Introduction Overview of the methodology Methods for scenario-based future ood risk assessment Results for the present situation Results for future scenarios The inuence of global emissions on future ood risk Conclusions References

14

Driver impacts in Scotland Alan Werritty Introduction Climate change Catchment land-use River processes Coastal processes Human behaviour Socio-economics Ranking of drivers References

15

Driver impacts in Northern Ireland John Chatterton and Stuart Suter Background to ood risk in Northern Ireland Climate change River processes Coastal processes and climate change Socio-economic drivers Closure References

Part 4 16

Coastal erosion drivers and risks 267 267 268 270 273 274 279 280

Drivers of coastal erosion Kevin Burgess, Helen Jay and Robert J. Nicholls Introduction Drivers natural morphology and processes Drivers human intervention Drivers climate change Case studies References

17

Assessment of future coastal erosion risk Kevin Burgess, Helen Jay, Robert J. Nicholls, Colin Green and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell Introduction Rates of change

280 280

vi

Contents
Coastal defence The economic impacts of coastal erosion References Part 5 18 Responses to future ood and coastal erosion risks 297 297 298 305 311 315 317 320 320 320 321 329 334 338 340 340 341 342 343 345 347 348 349 353 357 357 358 360 360 360 363 367 369 372 373 373 287 289 292

Managing the rural landscape Stuart N. Lane, Joe Morris, P. Edna OConnell and Paul F. Quinn Introduction Management of inltration Catchment-wide storage Management of hillslope and river conveyance Conclusions References

19

Responses to future intra-urban ood risks Richard M. Ashley and Adrian J. Saul Introduction The potential responses Response groups and eectiveness Quantication of responses Sustainability assessment References

20

Flood event management Sue Tapsell and David Ball Introduction Data collection Response measures for managing ood events Real-time ood forecasting and warning dissemination Flood ghting: actions to manage ood waters and defences during the event Collective-scale damage-avoidance actions: evacuation of oodplains and coastal areas at risk Individual-scale damage-avoidance actions: temporary ood proong and moving of assets at risk to safety Potential application of measures to future scenarios Sustainability issues Future uncertainty Conclusions References

21

Reducing ood losses Nigel W. Arnell and John Chatterton Introduction: A classication of approaches Facilitating recovery from loss: insurance and public relief Spatial planning for reducing ood losses Flood-proong and building standards Implications for future national ood losses Sustainability appraisal of measures to reduce ood losses Conclusions References

vii

Contents
22 River engineering responses Peter H. von Lany and John Palmer Introduction Response group descriptions Governance, costs and standards of service Flood risk multipliers under the Foresight scenarios Sustainability Summary References 23 The management of coastal ooding and erosion Robert J. Nicholls, Nicholas J. Cooper and Ian H. Townend Introduction Coastal defences Coastal energy reduction measures Re-alignment of defence infrastructure Morphological protection Use of the coastal response groups Conclusions and emerging issues Acknowledgements References 24 Response scoring, ranking, uncertainty and sustainability Jonathan D. Simm and Colin R. Thorne Introduction Expert scoring of potential ood risk reductions Process support using electronic spreadsheets Response group scoring Combining interdependent response groups Ranking responses to future ood risk Commentary Uncertainty assessment Sustainability analysis Reference Part 6 25 Assessment of ood risk responses 433 433 433 444 451 457 457 375 375 376 381 385 386 389 390 392 392 392 396 399 402 404 410 411 411 414 414 416 417 418 419 421 421 423 426 429

Quantitative assessment of future ood risk management portfolios in England and Wales Paul B. Sayers, Jim W. Hall, Mike Panzeri and Robert Deakin Introduction Overview of the methodology Future uvial and coastal ood risk Results of the investment analysis Conclusions References

Part 7 26

Sustainability and governance 461 461

Sustainability of ood risk management responses Andrew R. Watkinson, Sarah E. Cornell and Robert Tinch A long-term view of sustainability

viii

Contents
Sustainability implications of responses to ood risk Cost-eectiveness Environmental quality Social justice Decisions today for future sustainability References 27 The Governance of responses Andrew R. Watkinson, Sarah E. Cornell and Andrew Jordan Introduction Governance in the future Governance options for a portfolio approach Obstacles and opportunities References Part 8 28 Synthesis 491 462 465 468 471 472 473 475 475 477 484 484 487

Strategic choices Andrew R. Watkinson, Edward P. Evans, Jim W. Hall, Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell and Colin R. Thorne Introduction Options for managing ood risk A route map for ood management Building a portfolio of responses Conclusion References

491 491 495 500 503 504 505

Index

ix

Dedicated to

Elieen, Pia and Jacky

Preface
I am delighted to provide a preface to this publication on the research that lay behind the important and highly inuential Foresight Future Flooding Report, published in two volumes in 2004. Flooding is an issue that aects us all. Over 200 billion worth of assets are at risk around British rivers and coasts and those risks are likely to increase over the next 100 years due to changes in climate and society. In 2002 I therefore commissioned the Foresight Project on Flood and Coastal Defence to address a number of issues surrounding how the ood risk might change and how government and the private sector might best respond to the future challenges. The report that emerged had several key messages for government ood risk would continue to rise to unacceptable levels; those risks had to be tackled on a broad front and hard choices would have to be made regarding where to direct investment. This work established a new paradigm for futures work and, with the issues of ooding and ood prevention continuing to be in the headlines worldwide, it rightly continues to command widespread interest. This book is edited by three of the team who undertook the original Foresight study and elaborates on the work undertaken by approximately 60 leading experts in the eld, over 20 months between 2002 to 2004. A great deal of work was necessary to produce the evidence base that underpins the Future Flooding Report. However, the published documents contain only brief summaries of the deep descriptions, quantitative analyses and risk models developed and applied in the study. It is therefore most welcome that Thomas Telford have published this monograph as a detailed record of the science and engineering research performed during the Foresight Project on Flood and Coastal Defence. The UK government fully appreciates the threats posed by ooding and is already supporting cutting-edge techniques and policies for managing ood risk. It is investing heavily in research to develop new and innovative approaches to ood risk management, based on applying holistic principles and achieving sustainable outcomes. However, the government is not complacent and recognises that more needs to be done. At the conclusion of the Foresight Project in 2004, the Minister with responsibility for ood management acknowledged the important role that the results of that research would play in preparing a government-wide strategy for managing the risks of ooding and coastal erosion. In order to capitalise on the knowledge gained during the study, he therefore established a Flood Action Plan, which is on-going. It involves all the relevant branches of government a ne example of how scientic evidence can be used to inform better policy decisions. Of course, the benets of taking a long-term and far-sighted approach to ood risk management in a changing world are not unique to the UK. There has been a great deal of international interest in the Foresight model the Foresight team have had

xi

Preface
some very useful discussions with interested parties from the Netherlands, Japan, the USA and India, and there have also been Foresight Future Flooding missions to China and Russia. Clearly, the work begun with the Foresight Flooding Project has not ended but will continue in the coming years and decades, both in the UK and overseas. The issues covered by the Foresight study are likely to assume increasing importance as we enter an era of climate change, economic growth and societal evolution. This volume will therefore be a valuable resource to scientists, engineers and a wide range of stakeholders who share a common concern for ood risk management and an interest in evidence-based policy making. Sir David King Government Chief Scientic Adviser June 2006

xii

List of contributors
Nigel W. Arnell Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ Pennine Water Group, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheeld, Sheeld S1 3JD Centre for Decision Analysis and Risk Management, Middlesex University, Eneld, London EN3 4SA Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD John Chatterton Associates, 32 Windermere Road, Moseley, Birmingham B13 9JP ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B, Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQ Now, Royal Haskoning, Marlborough Crescent, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 4EE Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1RJ Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD Bevis, Great Somerford, Chippenham, Wiltshire SN15 5JA Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Eneld, London EN3 4SA School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B, Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQ Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ Department of Geography, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD Environmental Futures, 54 Rue Jean Baptiste Esch L1473, Luxembourg

Richard M. Ashley David Ball Kevin Burgess John Chatterton Nick J. Cooper

Sarah E. Cornell Rob Deakin Edward P. Evans Colin H. Green Jim W. Hall Claire Hinton Helen Jay Andrew Jordan Stuart N. Lane Peter H. von Lany Laure Ledoux

xiii

List of contributors
Joe Morris Robert J. Nicholls Institute of Water and Environment, Craneld University, Silsoe, Bedfordshire MK45 4DT Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 OQD HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Eneld, London EN3 4SA School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB Pennine Water Group, Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, University of Sheeld, Sheeld S1 3JD HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire SO17 1BJ HR Wallingford, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA Halcrow, Burderop Park, Swindon, Wiltshire SN4 0QD Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, Eneld, London EN3 4SA School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Schools of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd, Suite B, Waterside House, Southampton, Hampshire SO14 2AQ Now, Hydraulics Research Wallingford Ltd, Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Schools of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ Department of Geography, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN Imperial College London, South Kensington, London SW7 2AZ

P. Enda OConnell John Palmer Mike Panzeri Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell Paul F. Quinn Nick S. Reynard Adrian J. Saul Paul B. Sayers David A. Sear Jonathan D. Simm Stuart Suter Sue Tapsell Colin R. Thorne Robert Tinch

Ian H. Townend

Andrew R. Watkinson Alan Werritty Howard Wheater

xiv

Human behaviour
David J. Ball and Colin H. Green

Introduction
From a social science perspective our primary interest is in the nature of, and relationships between, individuals and groups, where those relationships notably include power and the roles of each group. It is through these relationships in particular by which we attempt to understand the world. Thus, from a social science perspective, the Foresight Future Flooding exercise is itself worthy of study as a social experience, and as an expression of the clash of what Braudel (1995) would describe as civilisations; the Foresight process sought to reconcile the two quite dierent understandings of the world represented by the physical sciences and the social sciences. As a social process, it expressed quite dierent understandings of such concepts as risk, uncertainty, vulnerability and the future. Of these two conicting worldviews, that of the physical sciences dominated and while the determinism was reassuring we nonetheless experienced a degree of discomfort in seeking to t our understandings into a strong physical science framework. But the challenge laid down by the physical scientists, namely, how can we predict the future and how, consequently, can we choose the future, is one which social scientists should welcome, not least because it is revealing of ones own preconceptions and assumptions. The approach taken by the Foresight programme on ood risk management and coastal defence was anchored in an essentially deterministic worldview. This is readily apparent from the way in which the process of risk change is seen to result directly from an array of factors, physical, climatological, and even social, termed drivers, whose eects on the socio-environmental system can be modelled to predict consequences. The power of this type of approach is that change can be simulated, by computer if necessary, predictions made on the state of the future, and if the predictions are not liked, then the eect of hypothetical interventions of various kinds can be simulated by adjusting the model accordingly. Such systems, if they work, are invaluable to decision makers. Of course, it is now recognised that even those processes which are outwardly deterministic are not entirely certain or predictable, as chaos theory and even experience demonstrate. For example, the Pioneer 10 spacecraft which was launched in the 1970s and is now far beyond the orbit of Pluto, has steadily deviated by some 400 000 km from its predicted course. No one has so far been able to explain

100

Human behaviour
this curious behaviour (Anon., 2005). Hence, even in the presence of a seemingly deterministic system, uncertainties are present and estimating these constitutes an important element of any study including the Foresight one. However, while the above classical worldview, which some call the Rational Action Worldview (or Paradigm, hence RAP) (Jaeger et al., 2001), is more or less a taken-for-granted of Western thought and provides the foundation for a wide variety of institutions markets, governments, international security, industrial management, healthcare it is not the only conceivable theoretical approach. Indeed, behavioural and social science usually has more modest, or at least dierent, ambitions, recognising that human behaviour is a rather complex business and subject to inuence by a vast array of factors, only some of which are amenable to deterministic-style forecasting (Eiser, 2004). Thus, the world is taken to exist out there whereas the social science approach both tends to see the world as being constructed and as being constructed through human interaction. From this viewpoint, oods are not simply extreme physical events inicting themselves upon innocent and unsuspecting people, but highly interactive processes that involve inputs from both nature and society. As such, the very denition of a ood becomes problematic. Within this framing, such complex systems are arguably more readily analysed by recourse to alternative sociological models, some of which are located in Fig. 7.1, but these could not be expected to produce the kinds of outputs demanded by the Foresight methodology. This gure can be contrasted to the models presented elsewhere in this volume. For this reason, while bearing in mind the inevitable shortcomings of any model, an attempt was made to fashion an approach which would lend itself to Foresight as originally envisaged by its designers. In particular, in each of the four scenarios adopted in the Foresight study, the social scientist is inclined to the view that each then determines how oods will be understood, how decisions will be made, and how the ood risk will be managed. Thus, concepts such as vulnerability and

Constructivist

Cultural theory

Post-modern theories

Individualistic

Reflexive modernisation

Structural Systems theory Organisational theory

Rational actor concept

Objective

Non-Marxist & critical theory

Fig. 7.1. Renn (1994) has classied the major sociological perspectives on risk according to their anchorage in a) an individualistic versus structural dimension and b) an objectivist versus constructivist dimension. The Rational Actor Paradigm of the Foresight programme inhabits the bottom left (individualisticobjective) quadrant of this classication

101

Drivers of ood risk

risk will be dened uniquely by each society in dierent ways. Rather than it being possible to dene such terms as vulnerability, risk and uncertainty in ontological terms, they must then be understood epistemologically. So, for example, a probability is a claim as to what we can know and how or why we can know it, and a claim which can properly be expressed in terms consistent with Kolmogorovs mathematics of probability. In that there are competing theories of probability, there are dierent claims as to what we can know and the basis upon which we can know it. In short, if we could determine which form of society would exist, then there would be no choices left to make except in that each society would be faced with resolving its own internal contradictions. Similarly, the distinction between society and technology should be regarded a false dichotomy.

The human behaviour drivers

With the above important caveat in mind, human behaviour was deemed for the purposes of this study to comprise two drivers, denoted as stakeholder behaviour and public preferences (attitudes and expectations). These were dened as follows.

Stakeholder behaviour
Stakeholders include any group, cohesive or dispersed, with a direct or indirect interest or inuence on ood risk and its management. The public is clearly an important stakeholder but is not seen as having a single opinion. Stakeholder behaviour, expert or lay, is seen as motivated by numerous factors besides risk. These include beliefs, values, ways of working, and perceived fairness of decision processes.

Public attitudes and expectations

In line with cultural theory (Douglas, 1985; Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) the public is not regarded as a single entity with one position on matters related to ood risk. Attitudes and expectations are seen to be determined by multiple factors including actual and perceived risk, equity concerns, issues of process (i.e. the means and manner by which risk management decisions are made) and world view. It is self-evident that these drivers are closely inter-related. The public has been singled out as one stakeholder group in terms of its preferences, and is clearly one contributor to stakeholder behaviour overall, which will be driven partly by public preferences. Social impacts (see Chapter 8) will clearly inuence preferences, especially those of the public, and hence behaviour. Other stakeholder groups farming, insurance, etc. will have their own strong preferences too. Because the ways in which the livelihoods of these latter communities are linked with ood risk management are better dened, it may be expected, though is not guaranteed, that their preferences will be less diverse within their own group than those of the public at large. This framing positions people and groups as though they were physical phenomena to be taken into account in decision making. But people dier from physical phenomena in two key aspects. First, people are the decision makers; it is out of the cognitions and relationships between individuals and groups that decisions will emerge. Second, if research is about learning, when the researcher seeks to learn about the physical world the physical world does not learn anything about the researcher. But when the researcher seeks to learn about the social world, the people studied are changed to a greater or lesser extent by the experience. Hence, the main impact of these drivers upon ood risk is likely to be by way of their inuence upon other actors, such as regulators. Thus there will be strong feedback loops, e.g. between stakeholder behaviour and regulation and other drivers. Regulators will be tuned in to stakeholder behaviour and public expectations in

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deciding on risk management interventions. But stakeholder behaviour and public expectations will in turn be inuenced by the ways in which regulators make choices, as well as actual choices made. In turn, the roles of individuals and groups, and the inter-relations between them, are both dened by and dene the society and can be taken to reect the worldview of that society. The concept of regulators is itself predicated upon the existence of a particular form of society, being most closely associated with the form of society dened as national enterprise. In the world markets model, with its emphasis upon both the market and individualism, and a desire to minimise the scope of government, the emphasis would be on the use of prices and formal regulation would be minimised. Under the purist form of cultural theory (Adams, 1995), once the nature of the society is determined, there are no choices left to make. Overall feedback is thus strong, complicated, and perhaps even unfathomable. Furthermore, the stakeholder groups that have the most inuence upon regulatory decisions, and who are therefore most likely to feel enfranchised and therefore satised, will vary from one Foresight scenario to another, though not in a simple or predictable way. This is because it is as much the ne structure of the scenarios which will be important as their broad brush nature. Self-interest, beliefs, (dis-) satisfaction and ways of working will provide the energy to drive the stakeholder behaviour-regulation cycle, and this energy will in turn be topped up by, among other things, that stakeholder group denoted as the public in the driver listing. Public preferences will in turn be fuelled as much if not more by perception of the regulatory process than the actual risk, and this in its turn will be fed by other drivers such as institutions, science, engineering and technology and risk compensation and insurance through their attitudes to the public and the publics then view of their rights to involvement and say in regulatory choice. In view of the large number of stakeholders, there are inevitably other kinds of stakeholder behaviour which will impinge on other drivers. Agricultural practices, for example, could clearly have a big impact on runo. Similarly, the insurance industry can be regarded as a separate player or the actions of the insurance industry can be understood in relation to the actions of other players (Green and Penning-Rowsell, 2004). Notably, ooding is seen as uninsurable risk except through some form of publicprivate partnership (Gaschen et al., 1998). Likewise, the behaviour of the insurance sector an essentially free market will have an eect on what is demanded of ood risk managers. Already there is speculation that the insurance sector, faced with rising ood-related claims, might opt for novel risk-transfer or hedging instruments such as catastrophe bonds which transfer the risks to global capital markets (Linnerooth-Bayer and Amendola, 2003). Mitchell (2003) gives the following salutary example of the complexity of stakeholder behavioural impacts, this in the context of the selection of port locations for industries: . . . the burgeoning emphasis on port locations for industries is facilitated by changes in a complex web of factors that includes, among other things, marine transportation, navigation, and dredging technologies; shipboard labor practices; vessel registration and regulation rules; the acquisition of new electronic skills by mariners; the protability of the shipping industry; and the state of competition between dierent transportation modes. In turn these components are embedded in a dominant consumeroriented economy that is made possible by uid supplies of investment capital and preferences for entrepreneurial risk-taking, coupled with precisely segmented and targeted marketing strategies that rely on vast quantities of timely and comprehensive information about consumer tastes and surplus income.

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Index
Page numbers in italics refer to diagrams and illustrations. The abbreviation WM/NE/LS/GS refers to the world markets, national enterprise, local stewardship and global sustainability scenarios of the Foresight Future Flooding Project. above-ground storage intra-urban ood management 326, 327 WM/NE/LS/GS 337 sustainability 327 types 326, 327 aorestation catchment run-o 67 ood damage 71 ood risk adjustments 302 agri-environmental schemes 299, 303304 agriculture see also aorestation; rural land management; rural land-use buer strips 301302 coastal grazing marshes 32, 36, 40, 41 crop sensitivity 7172 drivers 7071, 197 farm management practices 299300 eld drainage 67, 301 ooding economics 7375 impact Northern Ireland 250251 Scotland 232 land drainage 251, 300301 livestock management 300 ploughing times 299 soil ooding impact 7375 tillage regimes 300 water table depths 7273 WM/NE/LS/GS damage projections 222, 223, 455 annual average damage 188, 210 aquifers 177, 178 bank erosion, rivers and streams 301 beaches future unstability 287 regeneration 397, 398 shingle nourisment 397, 398 stabilisation breakwaters 271, 272 groynes 271, 271 below-ground storage intra-urban ood management 326327 WM/NE/LS/GS 337 types 326327 breakwaters, as coastal defences 396, 396, 397 Brunn Rule, coastal erosion 284 buer strips 301302 buildings design, ood risk management 321322 ood proong 367368 roof drainage 322 stormwater storage 322 sustainability, WM/NE/LS/GS 335 temporary ood measures 349 catchments 64 drivers rankings 194197 Scottish 239240 and future ood risks 7779 storage 308309 and conveyance management 313314 governance 307 impoundments 306307 ponds, bunds and ditches 306 sustainability 307308 uncertainty 309311 wetlands and washlands 306 WM/NE/LS/GS uncertainties 199201 charitable relief, ood losses 362 cli erosion 272 hard-rock 277, 277 as sediment provider 272

505

Index
climate change and coastal defences 287288 and coastal erosion 273274, 284287, 286 controlling, implications 494495 and emissions 223, 224, 457 evapotranspiration rates 5556, 56 and ooding frequency 5657, 58, 59, 218, 219 as ooding source 496497 precipitation 19, 51, 5355, 164 scenarios 1820, 18, 19 Scottish drivers 239240 and sea levels 5, 19 temperatures 19 and urban ooding 155 vegetative growth 258 coastal defences 392 see also storm surges beaches regeneration 397, 398 stabilisation 271, 271, 272 breakwaters, oshore 396, 396, 397 by energy reduction 396397 sustainability 408409 by morphological protection 402404 and climate change 287288 costs 394 current expenditure 284 dune stabilisation 271272 environmental implications 399, 468469 failure, overtopping 393394, 393, 394 future investments 288289, 289 geomorphological engineering 402403 glacial sediment beaches 275, 275 interactions 395 and land values 468 lifespan 289 maintenance 394395 man-made 269 morphological protection 402404, 469 sustainability 408409 Northern Ireland 247248 re-alignments managed 399402, 410, 469 sustainability 408409 transport implications 400401 reclaimed land 278, 278 reduction implications 399400 renewable energy production 396, 398399, 410411 response groups eectiveness 407410 WM/NE/LS/GS 404407 responsibilities for 394 saltmarsh regeneration 398 Scotland 394 shingle beaches 276, 276 sustainability 408409 coastal erosion Brunn Rule 284 clis 272 and climate change 273274, 284287, 286 and coastal morphology 268270 current shoreline changes 280282, 281 economic impacts 289292, 290 hard-rock clis 277, 277 hotspots 291292 impact of 32 and land values 290 Northern Ireland 259260 and sea levels 285287 shoreline changes, shoreline 282284 storm surges 268 wave action 268 WM/NE/LS/GS drivers 270 rates 285287, 286, 290291, 290 coastal ooding concentrations of 215216 driver rankings 193196 evacuation 347348 and morphology 146 Northern Ireland 247248, 260261 perceived risks from 384 risk reduction, social justice 471472 sustainability responses 462463, 465466 urban inundation 153 WM/NE/LS/GS projections 218, 223 uncertainties 199201 coastal grazing marshes 32, 36 loss of 40, 41, 469 coastal morphology 143144 and coastal erosion 268270 future uncertainty 145, 146 and sea levels 144145 sediment supply 144145 WM/NE/LS/GS sensitivity 269270 coastal processes, Scottish drivers 240241 coastal squeeze, estuaries 33, 273 coincident ooding, cost per property, future 331 communal solidarity ood event management 353 and natural disasters 117 Community Flood Log Books 343 community funding, ood-proong 349 computational hydraulic modelling, development 5 conveyance see river conveyance domestic losses assets 349 minimising 349 property, expected annual damage 329330

506

Index
WM/NE/LS/GS 119120, 121 sewerage causes 165166 storms 165166 drainage see also eld drainage; sewers form, maintenance and operations, WM/NE/LS/GS 338 inltration, groundwater table levels 325326 drivers 16 analysis of 2425 catchment rankings 194197 classications 17, 25 coastal ooding rankings 193196 impacts on local ood risks 186191 public attitudes as 190 ranking compilation 189 reconciled future impact 202204 science and technology 190191 uncertainty sources 197199 WM/NE/LS/GS multipliers 191193 rankings 193197 dune stabilisation 271272 economic impacts, coastal erosion 289292, 290 economic output, denitions 128129 ecosystems see also environments as dened user groups 9394 ood management impact 31 protected habitats 9495 within uvial systems 3435 emissions, and climate change 223, 224, 457 environments see also ecosystems; environments by name agri-environment schemes 299 coastal defences 399, 468469 economics 4144 ood risk impacts 3033, 94 intra-urban ood management 470471 regulatory changes 94, 9596 uncertainties within 9596 WM/NE/LS/GS scenarios 3840, 41, 9596 estuaries coastal grazing marshes 32, 36, 40, 41 coastal squeeze 33, 273 land reclamation 3132 morphological modications to 272273, 273 evacuation 347348, 351 decision making 348 evapotranspiration rates 50, 5556, 56 extreme event management 324325 farming see agriculture fatalities, and ood risks 118 fauna, river entrainment 233 eld drainage 67, 301 ood damage current estimates 215216 denitions 187188 economics 187, 212 estimates 6, 188 social vulnerability 212 WM/NE/LS/GS agricultural production 222, 223, 455 estimated annual 452453, 455 projections 218, 221 ood defences see also coastal defences; river defences costs 383 failure probability 211 and ood risk assessments 211 Foresight Futures Project, cost estimates 441 future investment costs 456457 intertidal area reduction 3132 and land values 468 reclaimed land 278, 278 reliance on 45 and shoreline movement 282284 Standard of Protection 211 technical basis for 5 traditional 315316 ood event management data sources 341 evacuation 347348, 351 ood ghting temporary measures 348349 water-level control structures 345347 forecasting 343344, 351 funding 345 governance 345 information dissemination 343345 responses 344345 global sustainability scenario 352 governance 345, 485 local stewardship 353 national enterprise scenario 351352 pre-event 342 planning 342343 public awareness raising 342343 risk logbooks 343 risk maps 343 sustainability 354, 354 sustainability issues ood defence schemes 354, 355 oodplain evacuation 356, 357 forecasting 354, 355 pre-event 354, 354 temporary ood proong 356, 357 uncertainties 357 world markets scenario 350351

507

Index
ood insurance 360361, 481482, 481 future 369370, 482483 international aspects 361 provision 361362 public charitable relief 362 sector, as stakeholders 103 self- 362363 state aid/compensation 362 ood losses see also ood insurance; ood reduction domestic 349 expected annual damage 329330 minimising 349 WM/NE/LS/GS 119120, 121, 165166 governance 486 ood mapping 5 ood plans, family and community 343 ood proong, retro-tting 367368 ood reduction future measures, eectiveness 370372 policies 363364, 370 social justice 471472 spatial planning 363364 sustainability 372373, 372 through planning controls 364366 WM/NE/LS/GS 369, 371 ood return periods, Northern Ireland 256258, 257 ood risk assessments 2223, 23 data availability 211, 212213 defences failures 211 and ood defences 211 and ood risk management 213214 oodplain areas 214215, 215 methodology 210, 211, 225 ood risk management costs, future 491494 ecosystems, impact 31 environmental impacts 3033, 3841 evolution of 4, 67 expected annual damage, WM/NE/LS/GS 452453, 455 and ood risk assessments 213214 Foresight Futures Project, responses 437440 and insurance 483 Northern Ireland 244, 248250 policies 3637, 93 reduction responses defence engineering 418419 interdependance 419420 methodology 416417 multipliers 417419 sustainability analysis 426429, 429 urban fabric 418419 WM/NE/LS/GS rankings 421423 WM/NE/LS/GS uncertainties 423426 response mechanisms 496 adaptability 499500 governance 501503 portfolio 500501 time factors 498499 rivers 381382 costs 382383 governance 382 proportionate responses 383384 Scotland 227228, 233, 236237 sustainability 37, 237 WM/NE/LS/GS 109 ood risks see also coastal ooding aorestation 302 as annual average damage 188, 210 changes to 17 denitions 16, 210 fatalities, potential 118 future projections 112113, 123 intangible 118119, 118 low income groups 117 mapping 343 morphology 82 multipliers 188189 Northern Ireland 246247, 248, 260, 261, 262263 public attitudes 102103 quantied analysis 24 responses to 2526 rivers future increases 384385 WM/NE/LS/GS multipliers 385386 social impacts 116117 and temperatures 50 WM/NE/LS/GS 7879, 191193, 216 ood storage, rivers 378379 ood victims fatalities 118 social support 119 ood waves, urban 152 ood-water transfer, rivers 379380 ooding frequencies changes 5354, 54 and climate change 5657, 58, 59, 218, 219 ooding systems changes in 1517 denitions 15, 16 instantaneous states 16 risk estimates 17, 17 oodplains see also washlands agricultural management on 6768 classications 215, 215 evacuation 347348 ood risks assessments 2223, 214215, 215 social vulnerability 445 inundation expected annual damage 444445

508

Index
expected annual probability 444, 446447, 450 land-use in 215 Northern Ireland 246, 246 populations changes in 218, 444, 445 ooding risk exposure 444, 448449, 451 WM/NE/LS/GS 442443, 445 reversion to 469470 storm surge vulnerability 139 urbanisation 7, 69, 497498 WM/NE/LS/GS population vulnerability 216, 217, 218 uvial systems see also estuaries; rivers driver impacts 197 ecosystems within 3435 modulation of ow 31 morphological changes within 3334 forecasting ood events 343344, 351 funding 345 governance 345 information dissemination 343345 responses 344345 Foresight Futures Project costs of implementing 436 ood risk management, responses 437440 methodology 13, 14 scenario-based approach 910, 21 socio-economic scenarios 2022, 20 sociological aspects 100102, 101 structural responses, cost estimates 441 target defence condition grades 435 target standards of protection 433434, 436, 492494 uncertainties within 2627 future investments, coastal defences 288289, 289 Geographical Information System (GIS) 5 geomorphological engineering, coastal defences 402403 glacial sediments, coastal erosion 275, 275 global sustainability scenario see also Foresight Futures Project coastal defence responses 405, 406 cooperation 352 environmental impact 3840, 41, 9596 ood event management 352 ood risks management 384 reduction 422423 future ood risks 7879, 191193, 216 summaries 2122 governance catchment storage 307 denitions 475477 ood events 345, 485 ood losses 486 ood risk management costs of 480482, 481 response mechanisms 501503 rivers 382, 486 framework of 479480, 480 history 478479 inltration 302303 response portfolios 484 rivers, conveyance 312 rural land management 316317, 316, 484 urbanisation 484485 WM/NE/LS/GS 414416, 477478 policy response themes 415416, 484485 greenhouse gas emissions, future 18, 18 greenspaces, in ood management 323, 470 groundwater aquifers 177, 178 denitions 174 ooding 50, 176 future uncertainties 179 intra-urban ood management 325326 WM/NE/LS/GS 337 recharge 174, 176177, 177 rising levels 177, 179, 179 trends in water level 174, 175, 176 hard surface controls, urban ood management 323 hard-rock clis, erosion 277, 277 hillslopes connectivity management 312313 conveyance, slowing 311312 household expenditure, WM/NE/LS/GS 122 housing development see urbanisation human behaviour, Scottish drivers 240241 Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan 401 impoundments, ood management 306307 industrial losses potential risk uncertainty 128 WM/NE/LS/GS 119121, 127 inltration drainage, groundwater table levels 325326 governance 302303 management 303, 304 and runo 298299 sustainability 303 insurance see ood insurance intertidal areas reduction 3132 sedimentary balance 3536

509

Index
intra-urban ood management area development 336 building design/development 321322, 335 cost per property coincident ooding 331 expected annual damage 329330 denitions 320321 environmental implications 470471 extreme event management 324325 nancing 323 greenspace promotion 323, 470 groundwater control 325326, 338 hard surface controls 323 rainfall-runo measures 324325 regional 324 response measures annual costs 331332, 332 sustainability assessments 334335, 335338 uncertainties 332333 WM/NE/LS/GS 333 sewer systems 328 WM/NE/LS/GS 338 source control 336 storage above-ground 326, 327 below-ground 326327 WM/NE/LS/GS 337 sustainability, ood risk management responses 463467 inundation oodplains expected annual damage 444445 expected annual probability 444, 446447, 450 land drainage, and agriculture 251, 300301 land movements, and sea levels 133134 land values, and coastal erosion 290 local stewardship scenario see also Foresight Futures Project coastal defence responses 405, 406 environmental impact 3840, 9596 ood event management 353 ood risks 384, 422423 future ood risks 7879, 191193, 216 summaries 2122 mapping, ood risks 343 micro-morphology, and conveyance 9091 morphological protection coastal defences 402404 sustainability 408409 morphology coastal 143146, 235236 and coastal ooding 146 ood risks 82 modied estuarine 272273, 273 river channel changes 83, 9697, 97, 98 muddy oods 180, 181 driver interactions 181182, 181 factors aecting 180181 future uncertainties 182 rural land management 304305 mudats, inundations 36 national enterprise scenario see also Foresight Futures Project coastal defence responses 405, 406 environmental impact 3840, 9596 ood event management 351352 ood risks 384, 421423 future ood risks 7879, 191193, 216 summaries 2122 Northern Ireland agriculture 250251 coasts defences 247248, 260, 394 erosion 259260 ooding 247248, 260261 ood alleviation benets 262 ood management authorities 244, 248250 ood return periods 256258, 257 ood risks 246247, 248, 260, 261, 262263 ooding areas 244, 245 oodplains 246, 246 housing development 251252 planning services 250, 251252 precipitation changes 252253, 253, 254 predicted warming 253254 relief 244, 245 rivers 246247, 246, 255256, 258 sea level rise 258259 soil types 256 storm surges 259 nuclear power stations, coastal erosion 278, 278, 291292 pathways, denitions 16 planning for ood reduction 363364 controls 364366 land-use conicts 124126 services Northern Ireland 250, 251252 Scotland 237 urbanisation 167 pluvial ooding, urban 152 policy response themes, governance, WM/ NE/LS/GS 415416, 484485 ponds, bunds and ditches, as runo storage 306 population mobility and land-use 123124, 124 urbanisation 125126 WM/NE/LS/GS vunerability 216, 217, 218, 220

510

Index
precipitation changes future 19, 51, 5355, 164 Northern Ireland 252253, 253, 254 Scotland 228230 as ooding driver 4950, 51, 152 high intensity 54 property, WM/NE/LS/GS expected annual damage 452453, 454 public attitudes as drivers 190 ood risks 102103 and preferences 106108 and risk perception 108, 110112, 111 rainfall extreme 182183 runo measures 324325 urban ooding 152, 322 receptors, denitions 16 reclaimed land, coastal erosion 278, 278 recreation land values 468 renewable energy production, coastal 396, 398399, 410411 responses 16 to ood risks 2526 risk analysis 89 risk assessments 106 oods 2223, 23 sociological perspectives 101, 101 stakeholder attitudes 104 urban ooding 23, 157158, 161162, 163, 164165 risk estimates, ooding systems 17, 17 risk management strategies adoption 8 integrated management through 1011 risk perception and awareness 483 public attitudes to 108, 110112, 111 river conveyance 8993 altering interactions 378 objectives 377378 sustainability 386, 387 denitions 89 eective bed roughness 9091 governance 312 hillslope, slowing 311312 management and catchment storage 313314 uncertainties 314315 micro-morphology and 9091 reducing 312 vegetation and 8990 WM/NE/LS/GS ood increases 9293 river defences interactions 381 Northern Ireland 247 objectives 380381 river engineering responses 376, 390 sustainability assessments 386387, 387389 WM/NE/LS/GS 377 River Thames Windsor and Maidenhead ood relief scheme 70, 378 rivers see also uvial systems alluvial channels 8687, 86 bank erosion 301 defences 380381 interactions 381 sustainability 389, 389 eective bed roughness 9091 ood risk management 381382 costs 382383 governance 382 proportionate responses 383384 WM/NE/LS/GS attitudes 384 ood risks future increases 384385 governance 486 WM/NE/LS/GS multipliers 385386 ood storage interactions 379 objectives 378379 sustainability 386387, 388 ood-water transfer interactions 380 objectives 379380 sustainability 387, 388 management policies 93 morphology 8283 changes 83, 9697, 97, 98 realignment 312 restoration 312 Scottish processes 232233, 239241 sediment supply variables 8385, 98 uncertainties 87, 98 WM/NE/LS/GS impacts 88 runo due to livestock 300 farm management practices 299300 and inltration 298299 rural land management 65 see also agriculture and ood defences, traditional 315316 ood risks responses 317 governance, options 316317, 316 hillslope conveyance, slowing 311312 inltration 298299 governance 302303 muddy oods 304305 on-farm practices 299 responses 298 riperian conveyance, reducing 312 rivers 312 sustainability 303304, 313

511

Index
rural land-use see also agriculture aorestation 67 arable 6667 coastal grazing marshes 32, 36, 40, 41 driver interactions 75, 76, 77 oodplain 6768 runo pathways 65 Scotland 231232 soil structure 6566 upland 66 saltmarshes inundations 36 loss of 4041, 273 regeneration 398 scenario-based approach, Foresight Project 910 scenarios, denitions 16 science and technology, as drivers 190191 Scotland agricultural impacts 232 climate change driver 239240 coastal process drivers 240241 coasts cells 235236, 235 defences 394 morphology 235236 driver rankings 239242 ood management authorities 227228 legislation 233, 236237 human behaviour drivers 240241 land-use drivers 239240 planning applications 237 precipitation changes 228230, 239 public ooding awareness 237238 relative sea-level rise 234 rivers 232233, 239241 rural land-use management 231232 snowmelt changes 230 socio-economic drivers 238241 storm surges 233234 sustainable ood management 237 temperature changes 230 urban drainage 237 urbanisation 230231 WM/NE/LS/GS driver rankings 239242 WM/NE/LS/GS ood scenario 230 sea levels and climate change 5, 19, 287 and coastal erosion 285287 and coastal morphology 144145 current trends 132135, 134, 135 future trends 133134, 136137 and land movements 133134 Northern Ireland 258259 relative rises in 234 storm surges 136137, 138, 140 wave actions 140143, 141 sediment providers, cli erosion 272 sedimentary balance, intertidal areas 3536 sewers below-ground storage in 326327 combined 328 dynamic management of 329 ooding by, prevention 328329 groundwater inltration 154 sediments in 154155 separate 328 urban ooding and 151, 152153 WM/NE/LS/GS projected losses 165166 shingle beaches coastal erosion 276, 276 loss of 33 nourishment 397, 398 shorelines changes 280284, 281, 283 management, impacts of 3233 social justice, ooding risk reduction 471472 social support, ood victims 119 socio-economic impacts domestic losses 119120, 121, 123 Foresight Futures Project 2022, 20 industrial losses 119121 regional uncertainties 129130 Scotland drivers 240241 ooding 238241 sociological aspects communal solidarity 117 cultural theory types 110111, 111 oods 212 intangible losses 118119, 118 risk impact 116117 low income groups 117 public attitudes 106108, 110112, 111 risk attitudes 100102, 101 world markets scenario 350351 soil structure compaction 67, 300 ooding impact 7375 rural land-use 6566 soil types, Northern Ireland 256 sources, denitions 16 stakeholders as drivers 102, 103106 future ood risks 112114 insurance sector as 103 motivation of 104, 105 public preferences 106108 regulatory inuences 103 risk attitudes 104 urban ooding 155156 Standards of Protection (SoP), ood defences 211

512

Index
state aid/compensation, ood losses 362 storm surges causes 136137, 268 and climate change 287 estuarine barriers 395, 395 oodplain vulnerability 139 future projections 137, 138, 140 Northern Ireland 259 Scotland 233234 stormwater domestic storage 322 drainage systems 68 ooding from 151 stream back-up, urban ooding 153 surges see storm surges sustainability above-ground storage 327 analysis, ood risk reduction responses 426429, 429 catchment storage 307308 coastal defence response groups 408409 denitions 461 domestic stormwater storage 322 ood event management 353354, 354356, 357 ood reduction 372373, 372 ood risk responses coastal zones 462463, 465466 cost eectiveness 465468 intra-urban zones 463466 future 461462, 472473 metrics 426, 427428, 429 river conveyance, altering 386, 387 rivers defences 389, 389 ood storage 386387, 388 ood-water transfer 387, 388 rural land management 303304, 313 urban drainage management 325, 334335 WM/NE/LS/GS 335338 target defence condition grades, WM/NE/LS/GS 435 target standards of protection, WM/NE/LS/GS 433434, 436, 492494 taxation, ood loss relief 481482, 481 temperatures driver impact 197 and ood risks 50 and ooding frequencies 55 future global rises 19 trends Northern Ireland 252, 253254 Scotland 230 Thames Barrier 395, 395 transport implications, coastal defence realignments 400401 uncertainties assessments of 26 cascades 6061 conveyance management 314315 ood event management 357 ood risks, reduction responses 423426 intra-urban ood risks, response measures 332333 types of 5960 water retention, catchment storage 309311 within Foresight Futures Project 2627 Wynne classication 315316, 423424 uncertainty analysis 185186, 199 United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) 7 urban ooding see also intra-urban ood management causes 320321 and climate change 155 driver identication 156157 ood waves 152 increasing potential 123 rainwater 152 responses 162, 163, 164 risk assessments 23, 157158, 161162, 163, 164165 risk reduction responses 418419 sewer inadequacies 151, 152153 spatial scales 150, 150 stakeholder attitudes 155156 stream back-up 153 surface runo 151152 and urbanisation 154 WM/NE/LS/GS annual damages 166167 driver ranking 158159, 161 driver uncertainty 160161 urban infrastructure, denitions 126127 urban land-use 64 average run o 69 culverting and 154 driver interactions 75, 76, 77 driver uncertainty 6970 ood detention measures 6869 oodplains 69 new developments 237 and planning conicts 124126 and population mobility 123124, 124 storm water drainage systems 68, 150151 urbanisation oodplains 7, 69, 497498 governance 484485 Northern Ireland 251252 planned 167 Scotland 230231 and surface run-o 154 WM/NE/LS/GS risk changes 167168

513

Index
washlands conversion to 308 as storage areas 31, 306 water recycling systems 154 water table depths, agricultural areas 7273 water-level control structures ood ghting 345347 responsibility for 345, 347 waves action 140141 coastal erosion 268 denitions 140 future changes 142143, 287 heights 141142, 141 urban ood 152 wetlands conversion to 308 environmental economics 4243, 42 NGO funding 308 as storage areas 306 world markets scenario see also Foresight Futures Project coastal defence responses 404406 environmental impact 3840, 9596 ood event management 350351 ood risks 384, 421422 future ood risks 7879, 191193, 216 high/low emissions scenarios 223, 224 sociological aspects 350351 summaries 2122 Wynne classication of uncertainty 315316, 423424

514