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A View From The Sideline
A View From The Sideline
A View From The Sideline
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The Haves and the Have Nots
Yes, I know it’s not the 2007 Draft, but it’s the latest draft logo I had to
illustrate my point. And, that is? Well, the discrepancy between the
haves and the have nots is as distinct as it’s ever been in the NFL. It’s a
long way back for these teams, but if there’s any hope, just check out the
Broncos. The 6-0 Broncos...that’s what I meant. The NFL weekend has
a Super Bowl IX rematch and a Michael Crabtree sighting. Good stuff.
Catch Lance Zierlein from 6 to 10 am daily, the Sean and John show, with Sean Pendergast
alongside John Granato. Listen to John Harris on show 3 to 7 PM daily. www.1560thegame.com
NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN
WEEK 7
t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
106.2 ypg - 16th Run Offense 77.3 ypg - 30th
4-1-0 4-2-0
160.8 ypg - 28th Pass Offense 292.2 ypg - 3rd
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
2-3-0 2-4-0
22.4 ppg - 17th Scoring Offense 23.8 ppg - 12th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
88.6 ypg - 7th Run Defense 125.0 ypg - 24th
10/11 L, Atlanta 10-45 10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28-17
10/4 W, St. Louis 35-0 10/11 L, @ Arizona 21-28
234.0 ypg - 20th Pass Defense 226.8 ypg - 19th
9/27 L, @ Minnesota 24-27 10/4 W, Oakland 29-6
9/20 W, Seattle 23-10 9/27 L, Jacksonville 24-31
19.6 ppg - 13th Scoring Defense 22.8 ppg - 22nd
9/13 W, @ Arizona 20-16 9/20 W, @ Tennessee 34-31
+4 - Tied 8th TO Margin +2 - 11th
When the 49ers have the ball... The Niners offense is pretty simple in terms of what they want to do. They don't
want to trick you too much, they just want to hit you in the mouth with their running game and then hit a big play
here or there. With Michael Crabtree on the field, the Niners might have another big play threat or they might have
a rookie who is nowhere near ready to make a big impact on the game yet. The key isn't Crabtree anyway. The key in
this one is the return of RB Frank Gore. While Gore was out, backup RB Coffee simply wasn't able to get the
running game going and the Niners suffered because of it. I'm sure the Niners will look at beating the Texans the way
the Texans look at beating the Colts which is to run the ball, control the clock and try and hit the QB.
Conclusion: I know that the Texans haven't been very consistent at home so far but there is no doubt that their
defense is improving and the Niners are offensively challenged. If the Texans don't fall apart on defense against the
run, this one should go the Texans way but isn't this the same thing I was saying when the Texans played the Jaguars?
t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
98.6 ypg - 24th Run Offense 161.0 ypg - 3rd
4-1-0 2-3-0
229.2 ypg - 15th Pass Offense 259.4 ypg - 9th
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
3-2-0 3-2-0
24.6 ppg - 10th Scoring Offense 24.4 ppg - 11th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
118.2 ypg - 23rd Run Defense 106.4 ypg - 17th
10/18 W, Chicago 21-14 10/11 W, @ KC 26-20
10/11 W, @ San Fran. 45-10 10/4 L, @ Denver 10-17
241.0 ypg - 21st Pass Defense 251.4 ypg - 26th
9/27 L, @ New Eng. 10-26 9/28 W, Carolina 21-7
9/20 W, Carolina 28-20 9/20 L, NY Giants 31-33
15.4 ppg - 4th Scoring Defense 19.6 ppg - 12th
9/13 W, Miami 19-7 9/13 W, @ Tampa Bay 34-21
+5 - 7th TO Margin -4 - 23rd
When the Falcons have the ball... The Falcons knew they had a much tougher schedule this year when it came to
rush defenses but I'm not sure they were prepared for just how much tougher it was going to this year. Michael
Turner is averaging just 3.5 ypc and the Cowboys are decent against the run so while the Falcons will try and get
Turner going, don't for one second think that the Falcons won't immediately attack the Cowboys pass defense. The
Boys are giving up over 250 yards per game and the Falcons multi-faceted attack can attack high or low and as long as
the Falcons get protection against the likes of DeMarcus Ware, they have a chance to put up some pretty strong
numbers. The Falcons offense hasn't been quite as potent as you might think, but the potential is there.
Conclusion: After two very good wins against the Niners and the Bears, it is time for the Falcons to crash back
down to reailty in this spot. Their defense has been bending a little too much and the Cowboys are coming off off a
bye week so this one will be tough for the Falcons to win on the road.
FANTASY NOTES
1. The Saints split carries between Mike Bell and catches in 6 games? However, with the Browns
Pierre Thomas and while I think Thomas is still the experimenting with their own "Wildcat" formation
primary back (or majority back), the Dolphins rush against the Steelers and with Cribbs having a
defense is no joke so Thomas is flex option while Bell is background as a QB in college, he might be worth
a sit. stashing on your roster if you have an opening.
2. While Kerry Collins is still the starting QB at
Tennessee for the time being, he won't be for long. At
some point, Vince Young is going to be the new
starting QB and when that happens, go ahead and
downgrade Kenny Britt if you have him on your
roster.
3. I know Browns WR Josh Cribbs probably isn't on
your radar these days and why would he be with only 9
Two important factors that should lead to a winning record for Texans
While this blog and most NFL analysts focus on the play of the starters on both the offensive and defensive sides of
the ball, there are two aspects of football that coaches harp on over and over as key elements to winning and yet fans
don't spend enough time looking at them.
Those two elements are turnover ratio and special teams.
The Texans 2004 record of 7-9 was a bit of an aberration as we found out thanks to their follow-up 2-14 season in 2005.
One of the reasons they were able to approach the .500 mark in 2004 despite have lesser talent was their positive
turnover ratio. 2004 is the only season in franchise history that the team has finished with a positive turnover ratio
(although they are currently positive this season).
Here is how the Texans have ranked since 2002 in kick and punt coverage as well as kick and punt returns (rankings
only take into account 16 AFC teams).
As you can see, the special teams are doing a bang-up job so far and not surprisingly, this Texans roster is as deep as
they've ever been. If the Texans can continue to play well on special teams while taking the ball away more than giving
it away, they should end up with their first winning record in team history.
TEXAS (6-0) VS. MISSOURI (4-2)
VEGAS SAYS: TEXAS -13 / 50.5
October 24, 2009 ABC 7:00 PM CST
Nothing has come easy for the Texas Longhorns this Missouri, on the other hand, has hit a road block with
season. Now, many of us expected Texas to be its offense as well. In losses to Nebraska and on the
undefeated at this point in the season, but we also road at Oklahoma State, the Tigers have averaged a
expected the offense to be clicking. A well oiled paltry 14.5 points per game. And, much of that has
machine piling up 45 point outings with ease. Well, uh, come with QB Blaine Gabbert struggling.
it hasn’t quite
been the case. Expect the
Texas Players to Watch Quite frankly, Texas defense Missouri Players to Watch
QB #12 Colt McCoy the team’s to follow the QB #11 Blaine Gabbert
WR #8 Jordan Shipley most valuable WR #81 Danario Alexander
CB #4 Aaron Williams script that both LB #12 Sean Weatherspoon
entity might be NU and OSU
DE #2 Sergio Kindle DE #85 Aldon Smith
defensive followed: take
coordinator away the short
Will throws - the bubble and tunnel screens and make
Muschamp, who has the Horns playing the best Gabbert beat you downfield. The Texas defense is
defensive football since, well, I can’t remember when. capable of doing that on the first drive of the game.
Sure, OU is a shell of itself offensively, but the Horns The Mizzou run game isn’t much, so if Gabbert’s ‘easy’
knocked out Sam Bradford, held the running game to quick throws are taken away, Mizzou will go quietly.
-16 yards and created five turnovers.
The 12 semi-finalists were named last week, so it’s time to narrow the scope and follow these finalists this
week. Here are some thoughts about key matchups to watch this weekend.
1. Tennessee travels to Alabama and must find a way to block #62 Terrence Cody, the Tide’s dominant
nose tackle. The Vols found a passing game the past couple of weeks, but their bread and butter is running
the football. That means finding a way to stop Cody from getting involved in the play. But, Cody has seen
double and even triple teams before. Furthermore, if the Vols spend so much energy getting Cody blocked,
Rolando McClain could have a huge game at inside linebacker.
2. TCU’s Jerry Hughes has probably his biggest test to date in the Horned Frogs massive MWC matchup
in Provo with BYU. The BYU line isn’t one of the best lines in the nation, but QB Max Hall makes life tough
on defensive linemen with his quick release. If Hughes can consistently get to him, then he’ll get some pub.
After seven weeks, some coaches are truly starting to emerge as realistic candidates to win the Bear Bryant
Award for 2009. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz has to be in everyone’s top three with what he’s done with the 7-0
Hawkeyes. Ranked sixth currently in the BCS, many thought that Iowa would be in the top three of the Big
Ten and near the bottom of the top 25, but this team has exceeded expectations in a big way, culminating in
last week’s 20-10 win over Wisconsin in Madison. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly continues to take that program
to another level with a solid win over USF last Thursday night. Even with star QB Tony Pike going out of the
game against a fast and furious USF defense, the Bearcats dominated the second half in a key Big East win on
the road. Texas’ Mack Brown, Alabama’s Nick Saban and Florida’s Urban Meyer will be in the mix
also with undefeated seasons. Now, two guys who probably won’t get much recognition (which is why I’m
mentioning him now) are Temple’s Al Golden and Idaho’s Robb Akey. Those two programs have been
consistently in the bottom five in the nation for who knows how many seasons. But, Golden has Temple at
4-2 and 3-0 in the MAC, while Akey has the Vandals at 6-1, undefeated as well in the WAC.