Commodity

Mantra

Pre-market

Metals & Energy

MarketCommentary

Preciousmetals

Precious metals tumbled, as a surprise rate cut

MCX
Gold(Dec)(Rs/10gm)
Silver(Dec)(Rs/kg)
COMEX(US$/oz)
Gold(Dec)
Silver(Dec)

by ECB and better than expected US Q3

preliminary GDP growth figures bolstered the
greenback. European Central Bank has cut
interestratesby25basispointstoarecordlow
of 0.25%. ECB chief Mario Draghi stated that
growth in the region still remains weak and
inflation remains well below target. Lower
growthandinflationhasprovidedapexbankthe
roomtotriminterestrates.InUS,Q3GDPcame
in at 2.8%, substantially higher than the 1.9%
expected. Initial claims also edged a little lower
for the last reporting week. Market participants
are now building expectations that Fed might
narrow the bond buying program in December.
However, we remain skeptical on the same,
considering the fact that budget bill and debt
ceiling deadline is lingering in the minds of US
legislators. In this regard, any political deadlock
between US Democrats and Republicans may
proveasadampenerforthebroadereconomy.

%Chg

OI

(0.4)
(0.4)

6,550
7,479

(0.7)
(0.5)

1,90,543
67,939

30,264
49,150

29,726
47,901

1,326
22.0

1,296
21.4

High

Low

Close

%Chg

OI

113.0
452.9
135.5
889.4
119.6

112.0
448.6
133.3
874.2
118.1

112.8
451.8
134.4
882.5
118.7

0.3
0.7
(0.4)
(0.2)
(0.2)

1,584.0
10,618.0
3,286.0
4,821.0
2,316.0

1,828
7,161
2,164
14,149
22,850
1,923

1,811
7,103
2,131
13,901
22,426
1,899

1,821
7,145
2,145
14,000
22,695
1,901

(0.1)
0.4
(0.7)
(0.8)
(0.6)
(0.7)

3,438
2,749
838
1,251
136
2,136

High

Low

Close

%Chg

OI

5,994

5,902

5,940

(0.5)

8,796

228

219

222

0.5

7,910

5,984

5,914

(0.3)

192

95.3

93.8

5,957

94.2

(0.6)

2,87,959

3.6

3.5

3.5

0.6

1,69,505

Prevclose
62.42
1.34
1.61
98.09
80.85

Prevclose
5,348
467
233
240
12
1,018

%Chg
0.0
(0.7)
0.1
(0.6)
0.4

MCX(Rs/kg)
Alum.(Nov)
Copper(Nov)
Lead(Nov)
Nickel(Nov)
Zinc(Nov)
LME(3mths)(US$/ton)
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc

Energy

MCX
Cr.oil(Nov)(Rs/bbl)
Nat.gas(Nov)
(Rs/mmBtu)
NCDEX(Rs/bbl)
SweetCr.oil
NYMEX
Cr.oil(Dec)(US$/bbl)
Nat.gas(Dec)
(US$/mmBtu)

Currency

INR/US$
US$/EUR
US$/GBP
JPY/US$
US$Index

In energy markets, WTI and Brent oil prices

November08,2013

Close

29,920
48,440

1,309
21.7

reacting
to
positive
macroeconomic
developments in China and US. It seems market
participants are more concerned about global
surplus(inmostofthemetals)andstrengthening
USdollar.Marketparticipantsareoftheopinion
thatthecurrentrecoveryinglobaleconomywill
notbeadequatetoabsorbtheexpandingsupply
innonferrousmetalsoutput.

Low

Basemetals

Basemetalsaretradingonanapatheticnote,not

manifestedweakness,respondingtothereports
of positive developments in Iranian nuclear
negotiations. In this respect, Iran's foreign
minister stated that he could envision a
preliminaryaccordbeingsignedontheissueina
matter of weeks. Meanwhile, one of the U.S.
officials conveyed that they can temporarily
remove the economic sanctions on Iran,
providedthatsubstantialprogressisattainedon
thenegotiations.

High

Close
62.40
1.35
0.00
98.66
80.48

LMEInventorylevels
('000tons)
Aluminum
Copper
Lead
Nickel
Tin
Zinc

Close
5,358
469
233
240
12
1,021

Chg
(10.0)
(1.9)
0.0
0.6
0.0
(2.7)

Metals & Energy

Pivottable

MCXLevels
InternationalLevels
Commodity
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
Gold
30,458
30,114
29,920
29,576
29,382
1,339
1,321
1,309
1,291
1,279
Silver
49,689
48,979
48,440
47,730
47,191
22.3
21.9
21.7
21.3
21.0
Aluminum
114
114
113
113
112
1,838
1,831
1,821
1,814
1,804
Copper
456
455
452
451
447
7,203
7,187
7,145
7,129
7,087
Lead
137
135
134
133
132
2,178
2,159
2,145
2,126
2,112
Nickel
898
891
883
876
867
14,248
14,099
14,000
13,851
13,752
Zinc
120
119
119
118
117
1,925
1,903
1,901
1,878
1,876
Crudeoil
6,032
5,978
5,940
5,886
5,848
95.7
94.6
94.2
93.1
92.7
Nat.Gas
231
225
222
216
213
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
Apivotisalevelatwhichthemarketdirectionchangesfortheday.Thesepointscanbecriticalsupportandresistancelevelsforthatday.Pivot
levelsareonlybroadindicatorsandnotnecessarilyourviewonthecommodity.

Importantdatatowatch
Date

Country/Currency
EUR
US
US
US
US
US

06Nov
07Nov
08Nov

Event
GermanFactoryOrdersm/m
CrudeOilInventories
UnemploymentClaims
AdvanceGDPq/q
NonfarmPayrolls
PrelimUoMConsumerSentiment

IST
16:30
20:00
19:00
19:00
19:00
20:25

Actual
3.3%
1.6M
336K
2.8%

Cons.
0.6%
1.7M
336K
2.0%
126K
74.6

Previous
0.3%
4.1M
345K
2.5%
148K
73.2

Preciousmetals

Currency
Gold

1,900

Silver

Euro(L)

US$/oz

US$/oz

Pound(L)

Rupee(R)

1.7

60

72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
42

1.6
50

1,700

1.5
1,500

40

1,300

30

1,100

20

1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1

10

900
Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

1.0

Nov13

Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

Nov13

Basemetals

Energy
Aluminium(L)

3,000

Zinc(L)

Crudeoil

Copper(R)

US$/ton

US$/ton

120

9,000

Naturalgas

US$/
mmbtu

US$/bbl

4.0

110

2,700

4.5

3.5

8,000

100

2,400

3.0
90

2,100

2.5

7,000
80

1,800
1,500

6,000

Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

2.0
1.5

70

Nov13

Nov12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

Nov13

Note:
Ideas given under the Commodities section are for intraday purpose or up to a period of three trading sessions. Recommendations under this heading are not
necessarilypartofourfundamentalbuyorselllist.


Commodity
Mantra

Pre-market

Agri-products
MarketCommentary

Spices
Commodity

CME Soybeans futures closed higher on the

Chilli(Rs/qntl)

day.USDA
supply/demand
report
is
scheduledtodaywith average trade estimates
calling for a yield of 42.4 bushels/acre and total
production of3.221bn bushels.Harvestedacres
are estimated at 75.928mn, while ending stocks
are estimated to come in at 172mn
bushels.Total commitments as a % of Total US
projected exports are now at 89%, which
compares to the 5 year average of 60% for this
date.Meanwhile, private exporters reported to
the USDA sales of 250,000 MT of soybeans to
China.

NCDEXNov
Jeera(Rs/qntl)
NCDEXNov
Dhaniya(Rs/qntl)

Close

%Chg

OI

6,430

6,302

6,400

1.2

2,430

12,523

12,338

12,355

(0.7)

5,667

7,010

6,844

6,888

0.5

8,140

NCDEXDec

7,239

7,075

7,130

1.0

19,940

4,638

4,490

4,586

1.6

7,485

High

Low

Close

%Chg

OI

NCDEXNov

OilSeeds
Commodity
Soyabean(Rs/qntl)

NCDEXNov

4,020

3,960

3,971

0.1

49,880

NCDEXDec

4,045

3,977

3,985

(0.3)

1,03,080

Soyoil(Rs/10kg)

unchanged,asloweroutputfromMalaysianand
Indonesiaprovidedanelementofsupport.Some
market participants are estimating that
production in Malaysia probably fell in October
from a month earlier, while exports were little
changed and reserves expanded to the highest
levelsinceApril.Alleyeswillbefocusedonthe
MalaysianPalmOilBoardreport,whichissetto
release on Nov. 11. The official numbers will
provide more clarity on the underlying supply
situation.

NCDEXNov

761

749

750

(0.9)

48,280

NCDEXDec

754

744

745

(0.7)

1,33,300

MCXNov

571

561

562

(1.1)

2,753

MCXDec

572

565

566

(0.8)

2,646

High

Low

Close

%Chg

OI

MCXNov

873

848

871

2.7

5,472

MCXDec

885

861

883

2.7

1,835

CPO(Rs/10kg)

Others
Commodity
MenthaOil(Rs/kg)

Spotprices
Commodity

In Indian markets, mustard seed futures

November08,2013

Low

NCDEXNov
Turmeric(Rs/qntl)

Malaysian palm oil futures ended literally

witnessedintensifiedsellingpressureonaccount
of steady sowing progress of rabi crop in the
current year along with higher carryover stocks
in local mandis. As per the latest release from
MinistryofAgriculture,thetotalsowingacreage
ofmustardseedason30thNovember2013has
beenreportedat1.4mnhectares,up110%from
thelastyearinthesameperiod.Thiswasmainly
due to better prices of mustard seed in local
mandis along with timely harvesting of kharif
cropinUttarPradeshandRajasthan.Thestrong
carryoverstocksinlocalmandisalsoaddedsome
sellingpressureinmustardseedmarket.Market
estimates suggest that total carryover stocks of
around 1820 lakh bags have been reported in
major producing states, up 45 lakh tons from
thelastyearinthesameperiod.

High

Close

Pr.Close

%Chg

Pepper(Rs/qntl)

48,033

47,500

1.1

Jeera(Rs/qntl)

13,041

13,041

0.0

Turmeric(Rs/qntl)

4,833

4,850

(0.4)

Soyabean(Rs/qntl)

3,967

3,842

3.3

Soyaoil(Rs/kg)
Chana(Rs/qntl)
Mustardseed
(Rs/qntl)

752

748

0.5

3,100

3,109

(0.3)

3,780

3,745

0.9

Agri-products

Pivottable

Commodity
R3
R2
R1
Pivot
S1
S2
S3
ChilliNov
6,626
6,528
6,498
6,400
6,370
6,272
6,242
JeeraNov
12,558
12,540
12,373
12,355
12,188
12,170
12,003
CorianderNov
7,098
7,054
6,932
6,888
6,766
6,722
6,600
TurmericNov
4,830
4,734
4,682
4,586
4,534
4,438
4,386
SoyabeanNov
4,041
4,031
3,981
3,971
3,921
3,911
3,861
SoyaoilNov
763
762
751
750
739
739
728
CPONov
573
572
563
562
553
552
543
MenthaOilNov
917
895
893
871
869
847
845
Apivotisalevelatwhichthemarketdirectionchangesfortheday.Thesepointscanbecriticalsupportandresistancelevelsforthat
day.Pivotlevelsareonlybroadindicatorsandnotnecessarilyourviewonthecommodity.

Chilli

Mustardseed
OpenInt

OpenInt

Price

4,000

6,700

3,500
6,400

3,000
2,500

Price
3,920

50

3,870

40

3,820
30

3,770

20

3,720

6,100

2,000
1,500

5,800

1,000
500

5,500
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

3Nov

7Nov

3,670
10

3,620

3,570
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

3Nov

7Nov

Jeera

Coriander
OpenInt

Price

OpenInt

11,600

9,700

22,000

14,000

19,000

13,500

16,000

13,000

13,000

6,900

12,500

10,000

6,600

12,000

7,000

11,500

4,000

11,000

1,000

7,800

5,900

4,000
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

3Nov

Price

14,500

7Nov

7,500
7,200

6,300
6,000
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

3Nov

7Nov

Soyabean

Turmeric
OpenInt

115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

Price

3Nov

7Nov

4,000

18,500

3,900

15,500

3,800

12,500

3,700

9,500

3,600

6,500

3,500

3,500

3,400

500

OpenInt

Price

5,200

4,900

4,600

4,300
22Oct

26Oct

30Oct

3Nov

7Nov

Publishedin2013.IndiaInfolineLtd2013

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