A chink in the armour!

Thursday 03rd April 2014 The Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa is havin a spe!ta!ularly "ad #eek$ Te!hni!ally% #ith the t#o assem"lies lapsin in late April% Mar!h 2& ele!tions for the 'estern and (outhern Provin!ial )oun!ils took pla!e on s!hedule$ *ut the polls #ere also e+traordinarily timed , #ith a little help from the -le!tions .epartment , to take pla!e 24 hours after the /0 1uman Ri hts )oun!il vote on a /( resolution that #ould laun!h a #ar !rimes investi ation into the last seven years of (ri 2anka3s #ar a ainst the 2TT-$ )alls had "een mountin for an international investi ation to "e set up "y the )oun!il in Mar!h 2014 and President Rajapaksa% #ho has mastered the art of usin international pressure to alvanise support domesti!ally% sa# the perfe!t opportunity$ 4n Geneva% sin!e early Mar!h momentum #as "uildin to use the third /( resolution on (ri 2anka to set up an in5uiry me!hanism that #ould "e !ondu!ted "y international independent e+perts a"out alle ations that have deeply shado#ed the last #eeks of the Government3s 6humanitarian operation3 in the north in 200&$

-le!tion turned referendum

President Rajapaksa% the undisputed kin of ele!tion7#innin strate y and rhetori!% promptly turned the provin!ial ele!tions into a referendum a"out the international moves to !ensure his administration and impose a pro"e throu h the resolution$ *oth provin!es pollin at last (aturday3s ele!tions #ere key indi!ators of Government popularity$ The south is Rajapaksa !ountry% the heartland of the President3s support "ase$ The 'estern Provin!e in!ludes the !apital )olom"o that has seen the most !han e in the five years after the #ar and lar e "elts of (inhala *uddhist support in the periphery$ (o President Rajapaksa !ampai ned as if he #as the rulin !oalition3s !hief ministerial !andidate% "e!omin the national fa!e of the /P8A ele!tion !ampai n% !onstantly impressin on the people a"out the need to 9send a messa e to Geneva:$ The results !omin in from early mornin on (unday ;30< #ere not the landslide the Government had anti!ipated$ 4t #on #ell over =0> of the total vote polled% "ut even early analyses #ere a!kno#led in that jointly% the ?pposition parties had made si nifi!ant inroads into the rulin party "ase$ 8or the first time in ei ht years% an ele!tion result had revealed a rulin party vulnera"ility% even #ith the President at the

helm of its !ampai n$ This is un!harted territory for the Rajapaksa administration #hi!h has seen a steady in!rease of its support "ase #ith almost every ele!tion% permittin the President to keep !onsolidatin his po#er$ .espite the very respe!ta"le =@> #in in the (outhern Provin!e and =3> in the 'estern Provin!e% the per!eption of ele!toral invin!i"ility had "een shattered$ 4n some distri!ts% the joint ?pposition a!!umulatively had polled more or nearly as mu!h as the /P8A$ That s!enario !ould have devastatin for the present administration at a presidential ele!tion% #hen the entire !ountry polls as a sin le !onstituen!y and talk of an ?pposition allian!e !ontestin is already in the air$ There #ere several !ru!ial indi!ators a"out these provin!ial ele!tion results that have "een a"sent in su!!essive polls held "efore% that have shaken the /P8A$

Aey takes
8or one thin % the Rajapaksa administration favourite% hardliner /daya Gammanpila from the B1/% lost in the )olom"o .istri!t to 1irunika Prema!handra% a !andidate #ho is essentially "a!ked "y the (28P old uard$ Gammanpila #as appointed the /P8A Group 2eader over (28P stron man Prasanna Ranatun a "y President Rajapaksa and "a!ked stron ly "y the upper e!helons of the re ime$ -ssentially% the results proved that the (28P support "ase outnum"ered that of the frin e elements #ithin the rulin allian!e% despite ho# heavily these frin e parties are "a!ked "y the topmost run s of the administration$ Ranatun a3s top sho#in in the Gampaha .istri!t preferential vote !ount ensured that Gammanpila !ould not "e appointed )hief Minister% havin polled a lo#er num"er of votes than Prema!handra$

(e!ondly% the result espe!ially in the 'estern Provin!e is a spe!ta!ular indi!ation that the e+tremist ideolo ies of the B1/ and *odu *ala (ena that are heavily patronised "y the Rajapaksa administration #ere not resonatin #ith ordinary people , even ordinary (inhalese people$ -ven in 1oma ama% Mahara ama% Aes"e#a and Aadu#ela% #here support for the B1/ and **( is stron % the ?pposition parties , none of #hi!h have espoused the intolerant ideolo ies of hardline *uddhist movements , mana ed not to "e #ashed out ele!torally% redu!in the /P8A3s #innin mar ins si nifi!antly in the )olom"o .istri!t% #here it !ould not muster more than 4=> of the vote$ Thirdly% the (outhern ele!torate that endured its Provin!ial )oun!illor Anarkali Akarsha for five years sin!e the last ele!tion reje!ted the a!tress7model and even her ?pposition !ounterpart% 0adeesha 1emamali% outri ht$ Geetha Aumarasin he ho#ever made the !ut% "ut Anarkali3s loss in the south% #here she #as "a!ked heavily "y the President3s o#n family% refle!ts the ele!torate3s ro#in frustration #ith the "rand of 6pretty fa!es3 politi!s that the Government has turned into a fine art in re!ent times$ ?verall sho#in ?verall% the Government de!reased its num"ers "y 24C%1&3 votes% losin a"out &$@> of its support in the (outhern Provin!e and 11$4> in the 'estern Provin!e ;!ompared #ith 200&% (our!eD .ept of -le!tions<$ The /0P enerally retained its vote in "oth Provin!es% its mar ins in the 'est de!linin sli htly "e!ause of a de!ision "y the Mano Ganesan7led .emo!rati! People3s 8ront to !ontest independently$ The major #inners at (aturday3s ele!tion ho#ever #ere (arath 8onseka3s .emo!rati! Party and the rejuvenated BEP under Anura Aumara .issanayake$ The t#o smaller parties made inroads into the /P8A support "ase and also tore a#ay some /0P votes$ This is different to the t#o previous provin!ial ele!tions in the 0orth 'estern and )entral Provin!es last year% #here the .P !learly eroded the /0P3s "ase and that "ase alone$ The /0P3s sho#in % #hile nothin to !aper a"out% #as not the #ashout many had e+pe!ted it to "e$ The party mana ed this despite failin to name a !hief ministerial !andidate% the la!k of a national !ampai n and the !ontinued atta!ks from t#o media institutions stron ly "a!kin the (ajith Premadasa reformist fa!tion$ Premadasa himself made ood in the 1am"antota .istri!t% in!reasin the /0P vote sli htly in the area% "ut those num"ers may have "een "oosted "y the fa!t that 8onseka #as not permitted to !ampai n in the distri!t due to Government pressure$ ?ne of the !hief insti ators of the /0P reformist movement% former (outhern Provin!ial )oun!illor Maithree Guneratne% #ho formed his o#n party to !ontest in the south , the -ksath

2anka Podujana Pakshaya , mana ed to muster 1%C23 votes despite heavy "a!kin "y a private television "road!aster$ *ad #eek *et#een the ele!tion results and the adoption of the /01R) resolution settin up an international pro"e despite the "est efforts of Pakistan% )hina% Russia% EeneFuela and )u"a% the re ime has had "etter #eeks$ 4n the Geneva aftermath% led "y the defen!e esta"lishment the Rajapaksa administration has pros!ri"ed 1C Tamil diaspora or anisations operatin overseas as "ein 2TT- or separatist fronts$ The "lanket "an in!ludes po#erful lo""y roups like the Glo"al Tamil 8orum and the *ritish Tamil 8orum and the Australian Tamil )on ress and the )anadian Tamil )on ress$ The latter roup re!ently su!!essfully sued (ri 2ankan a!ademi! and terrorism e+pert Prof$ Rohan Guneratne for defamation after he referred to the or anisation as a 2TT- front$ The "an that has "een enfor!ed #ithout a presentation of the fa!ts or eviden!e "efore Parliament or a !ourt of la#% is raisin fears that it is a thinly7veiled Government attempt to !lip the #in s of Tamil politi!al parties like the T0A "y !uttin off fundin and preventin the flo# of information overseas$ The Government !annot for!e !omplian!e internationally #ithout the presentation of hard eviden!e% "ut lo!ally% it !an hold the threat of 6terror links3 over politi!ians% a!tivists and !ivilians$ /nder the 4nternational )onvention for )ivil and Politi!al Ri hts% advo!atin for self7 determination politi!ally is le al% and many of these roups% in!ludin the Australian

Tamil )on ress% in fa!t !all for a solution to the Tamil pro"lem #ithin the frame#ork of a united (ri 2anka% and in effe!t are not even se!essionist in ideolo y$ T0A 2e islator M$A$ (umanthiran says it is a unilateral Government "an% "orn of hu"ris after the passin of the /( resolution in Geneva% and insists that many of the 1C or anisations listed have nothin to do #ith terrorism$ 9GT8 and many of its mem"er or anisations are !allin for full devolution on a federal "asis%: (umanthiran told the .aily 8T$

*an enfor!ement
The Government is yet to "rief the diplomati! !orps a"out the pros!ription% or provide hard eviden!e a"out the terror links of the 1C or anisations in order to make forei n overnments !ontemplate !omplian!e #ith the "an% it is learnt$ This "riefin #ill take pla!e in due !ourse% "ut unless the eviden!e is more than just !ir!umstantial% the Government #ill have trou"le !onvin!in the international !ommunity a"out the need to enfor!e similar stri!tures on the diaspora roups$ (haken "y the /01R) resolution and flounderin on ho# to deal #ith the latest international developments% the re ime is havin knee7jerk responses$ ?ut!ry over the arrest of three disappearan!es a!tivists led to a revelation that the 2TT- #as re roupin in the north% the entry of the !hara!ter 6Gopi%3 #arnin s a"out terror atta!ks on the !apital and a major se!urity !ra!kdo#n in the 0orthern Provin!e$ 4t is a major indi!tment on the Government3s massive loss of !redi"ility in the five years sin!e the #ar ended that the international !ommunity did not "ite in Geneva% despite the timin of the e+pose$ The moves are "ein vie#ed as a 6 et out of jail free3 !ard% to !om"at the pressure mountin internationally a"out the need to address the !ountry3s human ri hts situation$ 4n five years of dealin #ith the Rajapaksa administration% lessons have "een learned a"out its modus operandi$ 'hile the Government is "usy #ith "lanket "ans and !ur"in human ri hts a!tivism% the fa!t remains that the reatest !atalyst for the 2TT-3s re roupin is the Government3s o#n minority poli!ies post7#ar$ 0othin renders (ri 2anka3s territorial inte rity more vulnera"le than the lo"al per!eption , no# ro#in , that the Tamil and (inhalese !ommunities in the island !annot !o7e+ist$ 4t is a !ase that slo#ly "ein "uilt "y the re ime3s disdain for demo!rati! freedoms and human ri hts post7#ar and no# its rea!tionary responses to the /01R) resolution passed in Geneva last #eek$ 0othin #ill "reed dis!ontent and a shift to#ards e+treme Tamil nationalism faster than the !ontinued% oppressive presen!e of the military in the 0orthern Provin!e$ The refusal to demilitarise the 0orthern Provin!e is !ostin the re ime ele!torally and internationally$ The situation is nurturin per!eptions of dis!rimination and mar inalisation "y the (inhala majority

south that have e+isted for enerations$

1istory lessons
'hen Tamil militant roups first "anded in the late 1&G0s and early 1&@0s% it #as ordinary Tamil people in the north and east% deeply disillusioned "y su!!essive overnments of the south% that offered 6the "oys3 shelter and food or hid them from the (ri 2ankan armed for!es$ The moderate Tamil leadership had "een tryin #ithout su!!ess to #in autonomy for the north and east% for the "etter part of 30 years$ An ry% #eary and oppressed% ordinary Tamils sa# ne# hope in the youn militants$ (u!!essive (ri 2ankan Governments lost the hearts and minds stru le then% and paved the #ay for the emer en!e of militant or anisations that "e an to see violen!e as the only #ay$ The 2TT- #ould emer e as the stron est of these roups in the 1&@0s% and pro!eed to de!imate its militant opposition$ Per!eived saviours turned to oppressors soon enou h$ 0o !ommunity has suffered at the hands of 2TT- "rutalism the #ay the Tamil population did$ Their !hildren #ere !ons!ripted% their men disappeared or "rutally murdered "y Ti er s5uads% they #ere !onstantly monitored% !onstantly measured for loyalty to the Tamil !ause$ The people of the north and east% #ho had lived throu h de!ades of dis!rimination and per!eived injusti!e% #ere no# "ein perse!uted "y those #ho had !laimed to "e their saviours$ The south speaks often of 2TT- terrorH the "om" e+plosions% massa!res and all7 pervasive e+istential threats$ These #ere horrifi!% fearful thin s to live throu h$ *ut no#here e+!ept in northern (ri 2anka is the #ar et!hed on the fa!es of ordinary people$ 8orty7year7olds sometimes look G=$

Redu!tionist
This is history for otten a"out the (ri 2ankan ethni! stru le in the triumphalist post7 #ar narrative that rei ns today$ The present politi!al dis!ourse a"out the !ountry3s 6national 5uestion3 redu!es de!ades of ethni! strife% dis!rimination and perse!ution of a !ommunity of people to the fi ht a ainst the vi!iousness of Ti er terrorism$ 4n 2013% four7and7a7half years after the #ar% the Tamil 0ational Allian!e #on a t#o7 thirds majority in ele!tions in the 0orthern Provin!e$ 4n early 2011% there #as no over#helmin s#in to#ards the ?pposition% althou h the T0A made a de!ent sho#in $ There #as relief in the north then a"out the silen!e of the uns and the relative safety in #hi!h people #ere no# livin $ 8ive years later% residin in post7 !onfli!t !onditions% the Tamil people have "e un to !are a ain a"out politi!al freedoms$ *ut !onsumed "y physi!al re!onstru!tion and development #ork% the Government has !onsistently i nored politi!al rievan!es$ Government emissaries to Geneva repeated

the !all for e!onomi! and so!ial ri hts to "e re arded on par #ith human ri hts and !ivil and politi!al ri hts$ *ut there is a fundamental differen!e$ And it is "est arti!ulated "y the fa!t that states are not hauled up "efore international tri"unals or !ensured for their ina"ility to provide !lean drinkin #ater to their !itiFens$ 4t is the lo"al a!kno#led ement that human life lived #ithout di nity is no life at all that makes human ri hts a universal !on!ern% trumpin soverei nty and territorial inte rity$

A persistin pro"lem
'hen a people3s sufferin is !onsistently% determinedly i nored% they seek out heroes% sometimes in the most dan erous pla!es$ 4n its latest push"a!k a ainst the alle ed resur en!e of 2TT- terrorism% the Government is i norin and overlookin histori!al !onte+t and present7day preo!!upations of the island3s ethni! pro"lem$ 4n #ar7time% the fo!us on anti7terror poli!y #as understood and even #idely endorsed$ *ut on!e the #ar #as #on% pea!e7time politi!s and poli!y7makin re5uired a different approa!h$ Post7#ar (ri 2anka needed to a!kno#led e the series of lost opportunities and histori!al #ron 7turns that had driven the !ountry to#ards unfor ivin !onfli!t #hi!h lasted almost three de!ades$ Pea!e7time needed revised military and intelli en!e poli!ies$ Pea!e7time needed a ha#kish President to shed the #ays of #ar and mat!h a!tion to rhetori! in helpin !ommunities of people to heal after the horrors of #ar had torn them apart$ 1ad he !han ed the tenor of politi!s in May 200& and iven re!on!iliation a enuine shot% President Rajapaksa3s Government #ould not "e fa!in international !ensure and a potentially7devastatin #ar !rimes in5uiry five years later$ A ma nanimous Government in )olom"o #ould have stripped residual 2TTelements and diaspora roups operatin overseas of le itima!y$ And !ontent #ith the end of #ar and a measure of politi!al devolution% the Tamil people #ould have for iven even #ar7time "rutality and moved on$ And the #orld !ommunity #ould have moved on #ith them$