Demography and Demographic Trends

US History Encyclopedia: Demography and Demographic Trends

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Trends, Trends, Trends, Trends Time to find the next !ig thing! www.trendh$nter.com Demography is the study of the growth, structure, and movement of human populations. It focuses on enumerations (censuses), which take stock of a population at a moment in time, and also flows of vital events births, deaths, marriages, and migratory movements. These two sources furnish the basis for the statistical underpinnings of this article.

The Census
The demographic history of the nited !tates can readily be divided into two segments based on the availability of "modern" demographic data, mainly before and after #$%&, the date of the first federal census. The nited !tates was the first nation to have mandated regular census enumerations. The 'onstitution specified a census every ten years for apportionment of the federal (ouse of )epresentatives. *rom a very modest enumeration of heads of households with only a few +uestions in #$%&, the census grew into a large,scale operation. In #-.&, the census became nominal/ that is, every person was enumerated separately by name, instead of a summary of information by household (as had been done for the censuses of #$%& to #-0&). In #-1&, a preliminary effort was made at an economic census of manufactures. *rom the #-0& census onward, censuses of manufactures and agriculture have been taken regularly. 2ining and minerals were usually counted along with manufactures. 3eginning in the late #%1&s, wholesale, retail, and service establishments were also enumerated. 4ater, censuses of governments were undertaken. The population census is still taken decennially in years ending in 5ero, but the economic and government censuses are taken more fre+uently.

Vital Processes
The study of vital processes has been more difficult. n,like census enumeration, registration of births, deaths, and marriages was left to state and local governments. 'onse+uently, it was done unevenly. !ome cities (6ew 7ork, 3oston, 8hiladelphia, 3altimore, and 6ew 9rleans) were already registering deaths by the early nineteenth century. 2assachusetts was the first to institute statewide vital registration in #-01. : federal Death )egistration :rea was created in #%&& with ten states (the si; 6ew <ngland !tates, 6ew 7ork, 6ew =ersey, Indiana, and 2ichigan) and the District of 'olumbia, all of which were deemed to have had at least %& percent completeness. : parallel 3irth )egistration :rea was only set up in #%#. with ten states (the si; 6ew <ngland states, 6ew 7ork, 8ennsylvania, 2ichigan, and 2innesota) and the District of 'olumbia, again with the criterion of at least %& percent registration completeness. 3oth areas were only completed in #%>> with the admission of Te;as. 3y the 1&&&s, the nation still lacked comprehensive registration of marriages and divorces. *or international migration, statistics have been collected at ma?or ports of entry to the nited !tates since #-#%. :rrivals across land borders were not regularly counted until #%&@, while alien departures were only reported from #%&$ to #%.$. 6o direct registration of internal migration has been undertaken. *rom #-.&, the federal census has asked a +uestion on place of birth (state within the nited !tates, country if foreign,born) as well as current residence, which allows a view of "life,time" migration to that point. : +uestion on residence five years prior to the census was instituted in #%0&. !ince #%0$, the 'ensus 3ureau has collected monthly data on a variety of detailed demographic, social, and economic topics with an interview system know as the 'urrent 8opulation !urvey.

'(gina 2 de 9
To determine demographic history before the "statistical era" (#$%& to the present), other sources must be used. There were several do5en colonial and early national state censuses. In addition, family reconstitutions have been undertaken using parish records, genealogies, ta; lists, muster rolls, and other such sources. Ae know more about the 6ew <ngland and 2iddle :tlantic colonies than those south of the 'hesapeake. The population of the 3ritish 6orth :merican colonies increased from several hundred <uropeans in the early seventeenth century to about 1.. million by #$-& (1 million whites and about half a million blacks). In contrast, the :merindian population of the region e;perienced a serious decline, from about #.# million in #@.& to about $&&,&&& in #$-&. This decline continued into the early twentieth century as a conse+uence of new diseases, warfare, loss of economic territory, and changes in way of life. (!ee Table #.) !ince #$%&, the :merican population grew from about 0 million (about >.1 million whites and about $@&,&&& blacks, of whom about $&&,&&& were slaves) to about 1-# million in 1&&&. This represents an average annual growth rate of 1 percent per year. 9ver the long run, natural increase (births minus deaths) has accounted for appro;imately three,+uarters of this growth, while net in,migration contributed about one,+uarter. 6et in,migration is the difference between total gross inmigration and total gross out,migration. Table 1

Estimated Population by Race and Ethnicity, British North America and the United States, 1 !"#$""" %in Thousands& S'UR(E: See %aines and Stec&el '(###)*Ta!le +-,*-./. 0ased on data from U.S. 0$rea$ of the 1ens$s ',.23). )ate Total *hite Blac+ 'ther Amerindian ,-3# 23 2( " 'N+) ,*,3( ,2## (3, ((" (4 'N+) .42 ,23# ,*,2, ."3 ("'N+) 24# ,4## 3*"#4 /*"#,*##( 'N+) -## ,43# ("*,.( ,.*33" "*-". 'N+) "2# ,.## 23*../ --*4#. 4*4"/ "3, ("2 ,.3# ,3#*-.2 ,"/*./( ,3*#/( 2," "/" (### (4,*/(( (,-*.", "-*/,. (4*#2( /*,,. ,mplied annual - .ro/th rates ,-3#5,2## (./( ,2##5,23# ".#4 ,23#5,4## ".#( ,4##5,43# (..3 ,43#5,.## (."2 ,.##5,.3# ,."2 ,.3#5(### ,.(3

(.((.42 ".#3 ".#" (./,./, #..3

/./2 /.((.4. (.34 ,.22 ,.#,.22

(."2."3

-#.", -#./2 -#.3( -#..2 -#.4. #.2/ /..2

Race and Ethnicity of the Population

The shares of the population by race and ethnicity have varied over time. 8rior to #-@&, only whites and blacks were enumerated. *or the first several decades of the republic, whites comprised -# to -1 percent of the population. This share began to rise as white immigrants from <urope contributed substantially to population growth, while the black population grew almost entirely through natural increase, since the slave trade was officially ended in #-&-. In the decades of the #-.&s and the #%&&s, the contribution to population growth from immigration rose as high as >> percent. The share of the white population peaked at about %& percent in the period #%>& to #%.&, after which it began to decline. This was related to shifts in immigration from <urope to :sia, 4atin :merica, and :frica. The 1&&& census indicates that whites constitute $$ percent of the population, blacks #> percent, and other races #& percent, of which :merindians are #.. percent and :sians 0.. percent. :lso, (ispanics (of all races) are about #> percent of the total, up from about # percent in #%#&. (!ee Table 1.) : related issue is the foreign,born population. The #-.& census revealed that, at that moment, about #& percent of the :merican population had been born abroad. This peaked at #. percent in #%#&, from which point the share diminished to 0.- percent in #%$&. Thereafter, changes in immigration legislation have resulted in large net inflows of migrants, such that the share of the foreign born as of 1&&1 was about %.. percent.

'(gina 3 de 9
Population Distribution
:n important feature of :merican history is the redistribution across space. In #$%&, only . percent of the population resided in urban areas, defined as incorporated places of 1,.&& persons and over. 3y the time of the 'ivil Aar (#-@#B#-@.), this had risen to 1& percent. The census of #%1& was the first to show that more than half of the :merican population was urban, a fact that led to such a protracted congressional conflict over reapportionment that the #%1&s was the only decade in which the (ouse of )epresentatives was not redistricted. The official urban proportion stood at $. percent in #%%&, but this tends to understate the true urban population because of as,yet unincorporated areas growing up on the fringes of metropolitan areas and other urban places. (!ee Table 1.) There have been shifts in regional shares of population. The original thirteen states were spread along the :tlantic 'oast, mostly east of the :ppalachian 2ountains. 8opulation was about evenly divided between the 6ortheast (6ew <ngland and 2iddle :tlantic !tates) and the !outh :tlantic and <ast !outh 'entral regions. The well,known westward movement to the frontier (mostly along east,west latitudes), as well as immigration from <urope, which went mostly to the 6orth, began to shift the balance. 3y #-@& the 6orth (the 6ortheast, 2idwest, and Aest regions) had about @. percent of the population, while the !outh had only about >. percent. The westward movement ended in about #-%& and was replaced by an increasing rural,to,urban migration. In the late twentieth century this turned to a movement from central cities to suburbs and a regional migration to the "!un 3elt." :bout half of the :merican population lived in suburban places and another +uarter in central cities. In 1&&&, #% percent of the :merican population resided in the 6ortheast, 1> percent in the 2idwest, 11 percent in the Aest, and >@ percent in the !outh. The state of 'alifornia alone held #1 percent of the nationCs people.

Immigration and Population

The nited !tates has long been an immigrant destination. 9verall, between #-1# and #%%$, appro;imately @0 million immigrants officially entered the nited !tates. 3etween #-1& and #%1&, a period of virtually unrestricted immigration, appro;imately >>.$ million immigrants were counted. !erious immigration restriction began with the 4iteracy Test :ct of #%#$ and continued with the <mergency Immigration :ct of #%1# and the "6ational 9rigins" :ct of #%10. Immigration +uotas were established and continued, in modified form, until #%@.. The depression decade of the #%>&s was the only period in .!. history to show net out,migration. :fter Aorld Aar II (#%>%B#%0.), however, immigration once more picked up. Aith modification in immigration laws, notably the #%@. :mendments to the Immigration and 6ationality :ct, and with increasing numbers ofundocumented aliens (especially from 2e;ico and other areas of 4atin :merica), an estimated 1... million immigrants entered between #%0. and #%%$. Table 2

U0S0 Population by Race, Residence, Nati1ity, A.e, and Se2, 13""#144"%in Thousands& 'a) White pop$lation. '!) ales per ,## females. S'UR(E: See %aines and Stec&el '(###)* Ta!le +-/* 2#(62#/. 0ased on data from U.S. 0$rea$ of the 1ens$s ',.23). (ensus 5ro/th 6orei.n7 8edian Se2 )ate Total %- p0a0& *hite - Blac+ 'ther Urban - Born - A.e Ratio %b& ,2.# "*.(. 6 "*,2( 4#.2 232 'N+) (#( 3., 'N+) 6 'N+) ,#".4 ,4## 3*"#4 ".#, /*"#4,., ,*##( 'N+) "(( -., 'N+) 6 ,-.#'a) ,#/.# ,4,# 2*(/# ".,# 3*4-( 4,.# ,*"24 'N+) 3(3 2." 'N+) 6 ,-.#'a) ,#/.# ,4(# .*-". (.42*4-2 4,.- ,*22( 'N+) -." 2.( 'N+) 6 ,-.2 ,#"." ,4"# ,(*4-- (.4. ,#*3"2 4,.. (*"(. 'N+) ,*,(2 4.4 'N+) 6 ,2.( ,#"., ,4/# ,2*#2# (.4" ,/*,.- 4".( (*42/ 'N+) ,*4/3 ,#.4 'N+) 6 ,2.4 ,#".2 ,43# ("*,.( ".#,.*33" 4/." "*-". 'N+) "*3// ,3." (*(/3 ..2 ,4.. ,#/." ,4-# ",*//" ".#/ (-*.(" 43.- /*//( 2. -*(,2 ,..4 /*,#/ ,"., ,../ ,#/.2 ,42# ".*4,. (."""*34. 4/./ /*44# 4. .*.#( (/.. 3*3-2 ,/.# (#.( ,#(.( ,44# 3#*,3- (.", /"*/#" 4-.3 -*34, ,2( ,/*,"# (4.( -*-4# ,"." (#.. ,#".,4.# -(*./4 (.(2 33*,#, 42.3 2*/4. "34 ((*,#- "3., .*(3# ,/.2 ((.# ,#3.# ,.## 23*../ ,.44 --*4#. 42.. 4*4"/ "3, "#*,-# "..2 ,#*"/, ,".- ((.. ,#/./ ,.,# .,*.2( ,.., 4,*2"( 44.. .*4(4 /," /,*... /3.2 ,"*3,,/.2 (/., ,#-.# ,.(# ,#-*2,, ,./. ./*4(, 44.. ,#*/-" /(2 3/*,34 3#.4 ,/*#(# ,"., (3." ,#/.#

'(gina 4 de 9
U0S0 Population by Race, Residence, Nati1ity, A.e, and Se2, 13""#144"%in Thousands& ,."# ,((*233 ,./# ,,#*(42 4..4 ,,*4., 3.2 -4*.33 3-.( ,/*(4" ,./# ,",*--. #.2# ,,4*(,3 4..4 ,(*4-- 34. 2/*/(/ 3-.3 ,,*-32 ,.3# ,3#*-.2 ,."3 ,"/*./( 4..3 ,3*#/( 2," .-*/-4 -/.# ,#*/", ,.-# ,2.*4(" ,.22 ,34*4"( 44." ,4*42( ,*-(# ,(3*(-. -..2 .*2"4 ,.2# (#"*"#( ,.(" ,24*#.4 42.- ((*34# (*44" ,/.*"(3 2"./ .*-,. ,.4# ((-*3/- ,.#4 ,./*2," 43.. (-*-4" 3*,3# ,-2*#3, 2".2 ,/*#4# ,..# (/4*2,# #.." (#4*2#/ 4".. "#*/4" .*3(" ,42*#3" 23.( (,*-"(

,,.4.. -.. 3./ /.2 -.( 4.2

(-.3 (..# "#.( (..3 (4., "#.# "(.4

,#(.3 ,##.2 .4..2., ./.4 ./.3 .3.,

There have been two ma?or shifts in the composition of immigrants. The first took place in the #--&s when the focus of departures from <urope shifted from northern and western <uropean nations (3ritain, Ireland, !candinavia, and Dermany) to southern and eastern <uropean nations and areas (Italy, :ustria,(ungary, eastern Dermany, )ussia, the 3alkans, !pain, 8ortugal). *or the period from #-1# to #-%&, northern and western <urope furnished -1 percent of immigrants, but for the following three decades (#-%#B#%1&), southern and eastern <urope contributed @0 percent. The second great shift occurred in the #%@&s and #%$&s, when the focus of departures shifted from <urope (-% percent of all arrivals in #-1#B#%1&) to 4atin :merica, :sia, and :frica (-> percent of all immigrants in #%$#B#%%$).

The Demographic Transition

<very developed nation has undergone a process known as the demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality. The nited !tates began its transition at least in the early nineteenth century, but :merica was also distinctive. *irst, whereas its fertility transition began in the late eighteenth or early nineteenth century at the latest, other Aestern nations began their sustained fertility declines in the late nineteenth or early twentieth century. The sole e;ception was *rance, whose decline also began about the same time as the nited !tatesC. !econd, the fertility rate in the nited !tates commenced its sustained decline long before that of mortality. This may be seen in the fertility measures in Table >, including the estimated crude birthrate and the wholly census, based child,woman ratios. This contrasts with the styli5ed demographic transition in which mortality decline precedes or occurs simultaneously with fertility decline. :merican mortality did not e;perience a sustained and irreversible decline until about the #-$&s. Third, both processes were influenced by :mericaCs very high level of net inmigration and also by the significant population redistribution to frontier areas and later to cities, towns, and suburbs. Table 3

6ertility and 8ortality in the United States, 13""#144" 'a) 0irths per ,*### pop$lation per ann$m. '!) 1hildren aged #6/ per ,*### women aged (#6//. Ta&en from U.S. 0$rea$ of the 1ens$ss ',.23)* Series -26-4 for ,4##6,.2#. 7or the !lac& pop$lation ,4(#6,4/#* Thompson and Whelpton ',."")* Ta!le 2/* ad8$sted $pward /29 for relati:e $nder-en$meration of !lac& children aged #6/ for the cens$ses of ,4(#6,4/#. 'c) Total n$m!er of !irths per woman if she experienced the c$rrent period age-specific fertility rates thro$gho$t her life. 'd) ;xpectation of life at !irth for !oth sexes com!ined. 'e) Infant deaths per ,*### li:e !irths per ann$m. 'f) 0lac& and other pop$lation for 10< ',.(#6,.2#)* T7< ',./#6,..#)* e '#) ',.3#6,.-#)* I < ',.(#6,.2#). 'g) +:erage for ,43#6,43.. 'h) +:erage for ,4-#6,4-.. 'i) +:erage for ,42#6,42.. '8) +:erage for ,44#6,44/. '&) +pproximately ,4.3. 'l) +pproximately ,.#/. S'UR(E: See %aines and Stec&el '(###)* Ta!le +-(* -.-6-... 0ased on data from U.S. 0$rea$ of the 1ens$s ',.23). (rude (hild7*oman Total 6ertility E2pectation ,n9ant 8ortality Birth Rate %a& Ratio %b& Rate %c& o9 :i9e %d& Rate %e& Appro20 )ate *hite Blac+ %9& *hite Blac+ *hite Blac+ %9& *hite Blac+ %9& *hite Blac+ %9& ,4## 33.# ,"/( 2.#/ ,4,# 3/." ,"34 -..( ,4(# 3(.4 ,(.3 ,,., -.2" ,4"# 3,./ ,,/3 ,((# -.33 ,4/# /4." ,#43 ,,3/ -.,/

'(gina 5 de 9
6ertility and 8ortality in the United States, 13""#144" ,43# /"." 4.( ,#42 ,4-# /,./ 34.-'g) .#3 ,#2( ,42# "4." 33.#'h) 4,/ ..2 ,44# "3.( 33./'i) 24# ,#.# 3,..'8) ,4.# ",.3 /4., -43 ."# ,.## "#., //./ --4/3 ,.,# (..( "4.3 -", 2",.(# (-.. "3.# -#/ -#4 ,."# (#.(2.3 3#33/ ,./# ,4.(-.2 /,. 3," ,.3# (".# ""." 34# --" ,.-# ((.2 "(., 2,2 4.3 ,.2# ,2./ (3., 3#2 -4. ,.4# ,3., (,." "## "-2 ,..# ,3.4 ((./ (.4 "3. ,..4 ,/.,2.2

3./( 3.(, /.33 /.(/ ".42 ".3"./( ".,2 (./3 (.(( (..4 ".3" (.". ,.22 (.## (.#2

2..#'g) 2.34'h) 2.-.'i) 2.(-'8) -.33.-, /.-, ".-/ (..4 (.42 ".." /.3( ".#2 (.,4 (./4 (.,2

"..3 /"./3.( /#.3 /-.4 3,.4'&) 3/.-'l) 32./ -#.. -/.. -..# 2#.2 2,.2/.3 2-., 22."

(".#

(,-.4 ,4,." ,23.3 (,/.4 ,3#.2 ,,#.4'&) .-.3'l) 4(., -#., /".( (-.4 ((.. ,2.4 ,#.. 2.-.#

"/#.#

/,.4'&) /-.4'l) /2.# /4.3 3".. -#.2 -".. -/., -4.3 -.., 2,."

,2#." ,/(.,",.2 .... 2".4 //.3 /".( "#.. ((.( ,4.# ,/."

In the late eighteenth century, birthrates for the white population were +uite high by <uropean standards, with the crude birthrate (births per #,&&& population per year) in the range of 0& to ... This attracted comment by Thomas 2althus, 3en?amin *ranklin, and other observers. 2ortality was moderate, with crude death rates (deaths per #,&&& population per year) likely in the range of 1& to 0&. Table > shows the sustained decline in white birthrates from at least #-&& and of black fertility from at least #-.&. *amily si5es (as indicated by the total fertility rate) were large early in the nineteenth century, being appro;imately seven children per woman at the beginning of the century and between seven and eight for the mainly rural slave population around #-.&. The decline continued uninterrupted until the late #%0&s, when the nited !tates e;perienced the rather une;pected postwar baby boom. 3irthrates rose and peaked in the late #%.&s (with total fertility rates in the range of >.. to 0.. births per woman). Thereafter, the fertility decline began again until it reached relatively stable levels in the #%%&s (with total fertility rates of about 1 births per woman). Table > reveals that mortality did not begin to decline until about the #-$&s or so. 8reviously, death rates fluctuated, being affected by periodic epidemics and changes in the disease environment. There is now evidence that death rates rose in the early nineteenth century, likely in response to rapid urbani5ation, the nationali5ation of the disease environment, and possibly worsening distribution of income. : measure of the biological standard of living, adult heights, e;hibited declines for the age cohorts born in the #->&s and #-0&s. !ince a high incidence of infection early in life is related to shorter final heights, this supports the view of a worsening disease environment. Table > also shows that :merican blacks had differentially higher fertility and higher mortality relative to the white population, although both groups e;perienced the fertility and mortality transitions. 3oth participated in the baby boom as well as the subse+uent resumption of birth,rate declines in the #%@&s. !tructural e;planations for the fertility transition have involved the rising cost of raising children because of urbani5ation, the growth of incomes and nonagricultural employment, the increased value of education, rising female employment, child labor laws and compulsory education, and declining infant and child mortality. 'hanging attitudes toward large families and contraception, as well as better contraceptive techni+ues, have also been cited. 4ate twentieth century literature suggested that women were largely responsible for much of the birthrate decline in the nineteenth centurypart of a movement for greater control over their lives. The structural e;planations fit the :merican e;perience since the late nineteenth century, but they are less appropriate for the fertility decline in rural areas prior to about #-$&. The increased scarcity and higher cost of good agricultural land has been proposed as a prime factor, although this is controversial. In addition, the increased seculari5ation of social values has been hypothesi5ed as playing an important part in convincing families that they could have control over important processes such as fertility. The standard e;planations also do not ade+uately e;plain the postBAorld Aar II baby boom and subse+uent baby bust. 2ore comple; theories, including the interaction of the si5e of generations with their income prospects, tastes for children versus material goods, and e;pectations about family si5e, have been proposed.

'(gina 6 de 9
The mortality decline since about the #-$&s seems to have been the result particularly of improvements in public health and sanitation, especially better water supplies and sewage disposal. The improving diet, clothing, and shelter of the :merican population over the period since about #-$& also contributed to improving health behaviors. !pecific medical interventions beyond more general environmental public health measures were not statistically important until well into the twentieth century. It is difficult to disentangle the separate effects of these factors. 3ut it is clear that much of the decline was due to rapid reductions in specific infectious andparasitic diseases, including tuberculosis, pneumonia, bronchitis, and gastrointestinal infections, as well as such well,known lethal diseases as cholera, smallpo;, diphtheria, and typhoid fever. 6ineteenth,century cities were especiallyun,healthy places, particularly the largest ones. This began to change by about the #-%&s, when the largest cities instituted new public works sanitation pro?ects (such as piped water, sewer systems, filtration and chlorination of water) and public health administrations. They then e;perienced rapid improvements in death rates. :s for the present, rural, urban mortality differentials have converged and largely disappeared. This, unfortunately, is not true of the differentials between whites and blacks.

ging and !arriage

9ne of the conse+uences of the decline in fertility has been the aging of the population. 8opulation age structure depends mostly on fertility ratesE high,fertility populations are younger and low,fertility populations are older, provided that migration does not intervene in a ma?or way. Table 1 shows that the median age of the population rose from about #@ years in #-&& to almost >> years in #%%&. !ince male mortality is usually higher at all ages than female mortality, an older population tends also to have a preponderance of females. The final column of Table 1 indicates that the se; ratio (males per #&& females) declined during the twentieth century from well over #&& to about %.. The ratio was kept high through #%#& because of se; selectivity of immigrationmore males than females entered as migrants up through Aorld Aar I. :lthough no data on marriage are presented in the tables, the nited !tates has e;perienced some ma?or changes in nuptiality since #-&&. 2arriage in colonial 6orth :merica was notable for being early (for women) and marked by low percentages never marrying. This was different from the distinctive northwest <uropean pattern of late marriage and high proportions never married, although the underlying family formation pattern ("neo,local," in which newly married couples form new households) was the same in both colonial 6orth :merica and the areas of origin of this population. Thus, 2althus was correct. :bundant resources rather than basic behavioral differences made early and e;tensive marriage possible in the colonies. 3etween #-&& and the early twenty,first century there were long cycles in nuptiality. !ince about #-&&, female age at first marriage rose from relatively low levels to a peak around #%&&. The female age at first marriage was less than 1& in #-&&, but rose gradually to about almost 10 years (and about 1$ years for males) in #%&&. Thereafter, a gradual decline began, with a trough being reached about #%@& at the height of the baby boom, when the female age at first marriage had fallen to 1&.> years and the male age to 1>.0 years. There then began another, and rapid,upswing in both male and female marriage ages. 8roportions never married at ages 0. to .0replicated these cycles with a lag of about 1& to >& years. 2ale nuptiality patterns generally paralleled female patterns. 2ale marriage ages were higher than those of females with proportions never marrying also usually higher. 3lack ages at marriage moved from being lower to being higher than those for whites. !o, for e;ample, in #%%& white females married for the first time at an average age of 10.- years, while black females married at an average age of 1-.$ years. 2arriage behavior of the (ispanic population looked rather more like that of the white population. 2uch of the change was due to delayed childbearing, more single,parent households, and more couples living in nonmarital unions and for longer periods of time. 2uch of the work of the discipline of demography involves creation, evaluation, and analysis of a variety of data sources. The creation of standard demographic measures, such as those found in Table >, is a fre+uent goal. (istorical demography, however, faces a number of different challenges. (istorical demographers work in areas and on time periods for which regular censuses, surveys, andFor vital registration do not e;ist or are +uite deficient in coverage, accuracy, or completeness. In the case of the nited !tates, fortunately there have been records of decennial federal censuses from #$%&, as well as some state and local censuses. Aith the e;ception of the #-%& census, the original manuscript schedules of the federal censuses have survived virtually intact in the 6ational :rchives. The Integrated 8ublic se 2icrosample (I8 2!) pro?ect at the niversity of 2innesota has created or improved microsamples for the censuses of #-.&B#--&, #%&&B#%1&, and #%0&B#%%&. :s of 1&&1, samples of the #%>& census were under way, and the 'ensus 3ureau was producing samples for the 1&&& census. These are enormously valuable resources for historical population re,search. 3ut prior to #-.&, the federal censuses were not nominal and hence have not been sampled. 3efore #--&, there were no +uestions on the schedules regarding

'(gina 7 de 9
marital status or relationship to head of household. :s already mentioned, registration of births and deaths did not cover the entire nation until #%>>. *or the colonial period, while there were some censuses, they had +uite limited information. 'ivil vital registration was not in place. 'onse+uently, a variety of sources and methods have been used. *or data, parochial or town registers of births, deaths, and marriages/ genealogies/ wills and probates/ military records/ ta; lists/ and college and school records are among the sources used. The techni+ue of family re,constitution, using parochial or local records and genealogies, was developed by 4ouis (enry and his colleagues in *rance in the #%.&s and #%@&s. :lthough it is enormously time,consuming and labor,intensive, it has been used for a variety of community studies. *rom these we know a good deal about fertility, mortality, marriage, and family structure in the 6ew <ngland colonies, rather less about the middle colonies and the 'hesapeake, and least about the !outh. Techni+ues of indirect estimation of fertility and mortality have also been created, originally for use in developing nations, which have missing or deficient data. These include "own children" methods, which have been applied to the microsamples of the federal censuses of #%&& and #%#& to estimate fertility and mortality for the whole nation. :ge,specific marital rates and overall birthrates are estimated from the microsamples of the #-.&B#--& censuses. Guestions on deaths in the household in the year prior to the census in the censuses of #-.&B#%&& have been used to create life tables for the nited !tates for that time period. !ome of these indirect estimates appear in Table >. Aork is continuing on such topics as fertility and marriage, migration, social mobility, rural and urban environments and their influence on demographic behavior, and differentials between blacks and whites, between the native born and the foreign born, and among specific ethnic groups in various settings. The availability of small area data (counties, cities, and towns) allows matching of macrodata to local conditions. These same small area data are being placed in a 6ational (istorical Deographic Information !ystem (DI!) for aggregate analysis. :dvances in computing technology and data storage and retrieval have made this work much easier and more accessible to a wider variety of researchers. :nd there can be e;pected to be further cross,fertili5ation from the disciplines of demography, sociology, history, economics, geography, anthropology, and others that should inform the work in historical demography methodologically and theoretically and with more and better data.

"ibliography
:nderson, 2argo =. The American Census: A Social History. 6ew (aven, 'onn.E 7ale niversity 8ress, #%--.

Daugherty, (elen Dinn, and Henneth '. A. Hammeyer. An Introduction to Population. 1d ed. 6ew 7orkE The Duilford 8ress, #%%.. (aines, 2ichael ). "<conomic (istory and (istorical DemographyE 8ast, 8resent, and *uture." In The Future of Economic History. <dited by :le;ander =. *ield. 3ostonE Hluwer,6i?off 8ub., #%-$. . "4ong,Term 2arriage 8atterns in the nited !tates from 'olonial Times to the 8resent." The History Of the Family: An International Quarterly #, no. # (#%%@)E #.B>%. . "The :merican 8opulation, #$%&B#%1&." In The Cam rid!e Economic History Of the "nited States. <dited by !tanley <ngerman and )obert Dallman. Iol. 1. 6ew 7orkE 'ambridge niversity 8ress, 1&&&. (aines, 2ichael )., and )ichard (. !teckel. A Population History of #orth America. 6ew 7orkE 'ambridge 8ress, 1&&&. niversity

8reston, !amuel (., 8atrick (euveline, and 2ichel Duillot. $emo!raphy: %easurin! and %odelin! Population Processes. 2alden, 2ass.E 3lackwell 8ublishers, 1&&#. !hryock, (enry !., =acob !. !iegel, and :ssociates. The %ethods and %aterials of $emo!raphy.Aashington, D.'.E 3ureau of the 'ensus, .!. Dovernment 8rinting 9ffice, #%$#. .!. 3ureau of the 'ensus. Historical Statistics of the "nited States from Colonial Times to &'().3icentennial <dition. Aashington, D.'.E Department of 'ommerce, 3ureau of the 'ensus, .!. Dovernment 8rinting 9ffice, #%$..

'(gina 8 de 9
Thompson, Aarren !., and 8. H. Ahelpton. Population Trends in the "nited States. 6ew 7orkE 2cDraw,(ill, #%>>. nited 6ations. Indirect Techni*ues for $emo!raphic Estimation. 2anual J. 6ew 7orkE nited 6ations, #%->.

Iinovskis, 2aris :., ed. Studies in American Historical $emo!raphy. 6ew 7orkE :cademic 8ress, #%$%. Aells, )obert I. +e,olutions in Americans- .i,es: A $emo!raphic Perspecti,e on the History Of Americans/ Their Families/ and Their Society. Aestport, 'onn.E Dreenwood 8ress, #%-1. . "The 8opulation of <nglandCs 'olonies in :mericaE 9ld <nglishor 6ew :mericansK" Population Studies 0@, no. # (2arch #%%1)E -.B#&1. Ailligan, =. Dennis, and Hatherine :. 4ynch. Sources and %ethods of Historical $emo!raphy. 6ew 7orkE :cademic 8ress, #%-1. 0%ichael +. Haines

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