Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1

Players Guide
A New Guide to the Starting Hands in Texas Holdem Poker.

The key decision any holdem player makes is whether or not to play the starting 2 card hand they are dealt. And i! so how to play it. "e present here some #alua$le new !acts. .

Our Model
"e ha#e de#eloped these new !acts !rom a new #ery comprehensi#e computer simulation o! our own design.

Simulate? Smiluate!
This document is a Players guide. %ts meant to $ring the practical implcations o! our results to $ear. To $e help!ul to the holdem player who may or may not care a$out simulation. %! youre a poker player who is also a technical person or i! youre &ust curious what a sophisticated simulation program looks like inside then we in#ite you to ask a$out getting the complete source code o! this program as well as the detailed print outs !rom a rreasona$le run. 'or in!ormation a$out how to secure the source code and detailed print outs see our we$ page at( http://www.evgr.com/poker or write to us $y e)mail or snail)mail at the address*es+ on the co#er.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 2

This source code constitute the proo!s as to the !acts we do summari,e here. -sually the $est you can get !rom a poker $ook is the authors naked recommendations. .o proo! no detailed calculation worksheets and certainly no source code.

Shuffle and Deal

'irst imagine a simple computer program that shu!!les a regular deck o! /2 cards and deals out hands to 10 players plus / community cards !ace up on the $oard. The 1shu!!le2 in#ol#es picking these 2/ cards at random *without replacement+ !rom the deck o! /2 13ealing2 is done simply $y assigning $e!orehand particular se4uence num$ers to particular parts o! a complete round o! play. the 5th card picked !or example is always the 1st card dealt to player 5 and so on. 6andomi,ed shu!!ling and dealing should $e part o! any poker simulation. The only Figure 1 thing unusual in what we ha#e done is to ha#e read a$out and worried a greal deal o#er the 4uality *and e!!iciency+ o! the random num$er generator algorithm we would use. 'or more details on that check out random.zip in the '677"A67 section o! our we$site *http://www.evgr.com/poker).

Heros Play
Player 1 is always our hero. "hate#er starting hand our hero is dealt $ecomes the !ocus hand in that round o! play. 'ocus hands are always played aggressi#ely all the way to the ri#er. To illustrate this suppose Player 1 gets dealt a pair o! /s. 3uring that round all o! the other players make !our decisions( *a+ to play or !old $e!ore the !lop *$+ play or !old a!ter the !lop *c+ play or !old a!ter the turn and *d+ play or !old a!ter the ri#er card is turned up.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 8

At the showdown it may $e that e#eryone $ut our hero has !olded. 'ine then //s !re4uency counter !or 0 ri#er !oes gets $umped $y 1. And //s win counter !or 0 !oes at the ri#er also gets $umped $y a !raction depending at what stage o! play the last !oe in the round !olded. 3epending on the H7 Ta$le en#ironment there will usually $e one or more !oes contesting the ri#er. %! it turns out that our hero has a winning)ranked hand along with one or more !oes then this tie is di#ided up proprtionately. 9ets say hero ties with 2 !oes then heros !re4uency counter !or 2 !oes gets $umped $y 1 and his win counter !or 2 !oes gest $umpted $y 0.8888. So we continue in this way !or se#eral million *or $illion+ rounds o! play keeping track o! the !re4uencies and wins !or each condition $eing examined in the simulation. "hen the run is done our program then goes through and calculates !or each condition the liklihood o! winning or p*win+ and sa#es that in!ormation as well.

Foes
'oes are always players 2 8 : / ; 5 < = and up to 10 depending on the particular condition. the !oes our hero !aces sit at / di!!erent H7 Ta$les in the same round. 3ont try this in a poker room. %t only works on a computer. H7 Ta$les 1 2 8 and : always ha#e 10 players. At H7 Ta$le 1 they play as tight as youll likely e#er !ind. 7#ery !oe assumes that there will only on a#erage $e 2./ other players seeing the !lop. He>she plays rationally $ased on an expert knowledge o! 1old2 !acts.1 %n this case he>she would
1

the 1old2 !acts well known now !or se#eral years among holdem regulars are the liklihoods o! the 1good2 starting 2)card hands winning at the ri#er in a 10)player or =)player etc. showdown. 3espite the !act that this in!ormation alone is clearly unrealistic it has $een in large measure the only !actual $asis !or working out playing strategies commonly a#aila$le.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page :

play the hand he>she was dealt only with knowledge that it had !a#ora$le odds o! winning at a H7 Ta$le with 8./ players *since he>she will always see our heros $et+. %! the !oe was player < or = howe#er he>she would ha#e additional in!ormation. there would $e the cumulati#e prior action o! all preceding players *our hero and other !oes+ to use as well as an expectation a$out o#erall H7 Ta$le conditions. H7 Ta$les 2 8 and : are similar to H7 Ta$le 1 except they are progressi#ely 1looser2 in pre)!lop play. the idea o! 1looseness2 is not #ague in this simulation model. %t and how the !oes play consist exactly o! the !ollowing rules strictly en!orced *as only a computer can do+. At H7 Ta$le 1 i! a player does not ha#e any current in!ormation that is no other player has acted yet a !oe will always assume at least 2./ small $ets ha#e $een *or will $e+ put into the pot as we &ust descri$ed a$o#e. At H7 Ta$le 2 the assumption is 8./. H7 Ta$le 8 $elie#es in :./ and H7 Ta$le : !oes assume /./. This starting assumption gets modi!ied $y actual play. 'or example Player / always gets to ad&ust his>her o#erall assumption a$out the Ta$le i! Players 2 8 and : all are in the pot ahead o! him>her.

the !oe uses this 1assumption2 to calculate the odds the theoretical pot is o!!ering !or the particular starting hand he>she has &ust $een dealt. This is expert play $ased on 1old2 !acts.2

Armed with *a+ the odds o! winning at the ri#er against the presumed num$er o! !oes !or this H7 Ta$le ad&usted $y the actual num$er in case that is greater $y the time this !oe must make a play>!old decision and with *$+ the odds the presumed pot is o!!ering to continue playing the !oe makes a rational decision whether in !act to play or !old $e!ore the !lop.

See the pre#ious !ootnote regarding 1old2 !acts

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page /

A!ter the !lop the !oes at these H7 Ta$les will then play only when they ha#e either a made hand or a 1 card draw to a straight or a !lush. At the ri#er they will play only when they#e made at least a pair or $etter. ?issed straight and !lush draws !old at that point. At H7 Ta$le / the players are as loose as possi$le. they play the classic showdown game where e#ery player goes to the ri#er. 7xcept we pro#ide here !or 2 player showdowns *consisting o! thero plus Player 2+ 8 player showdowns *add Player 8+ and so on up to a 10)player showdown *add Players : thru 10+. So H7 Ta$le / is really 9 different HE Tables each with a di!!erent num$er o! starting players. @ut instead o! num$ering them as such we pre!erred to simply indicate the num$er o! players at the ri#er as $eing 8 !or a 8)player showdown game / !or a /)player game and so on. That way we can easily compare them with num$er o! players at the showdown under the more realistic playing conditions o! H7 Ta$les 1 2 8 and :. %! you wish you can imagine in our study that Hero is sitting simultaneously at /A<B18 di!!erent H7 Ta$les !our o! them where the !oes play their hands 4uasi)realistically and nine o! them where all o! the !oes play loose and cra,y $ut at eight o! these they are playing short)handed.

Playing Position
Although playing position is generally thought to $e the most important !actor in selection o! starting hands in holdem it is not particularly important to the conclusions we#e drawn here. "e keep track o! the !ate o! starting hands under the control o! our hero. All other hands are distri$uted randomly across position. Cur hero is always in e!!ect acting 1under the gun2 $ut could care less.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page ;

%! you wish to #ary your starting hand selection $ased on your playing position which is !undamental to the playing strategies ad#ocated $y noted poker authors then youll $e using the o#erall ranking o! each hand as a $asis !or doing so anyway. Thats itD Cr at least thats the $eginning o! our more detailed story. 9ook at it this way. "e#e co#ered in our model a $road spectrum o! H7 Ta$le conditions #arying !rom #ery tight to maximally loose. "e#e also co#ered the issue o! num$er o! players in $oth possi$le ways( the num$er o! players at the H7 Ta$le in the !irst place and the num$er o! good players out o! 10 who play rationally and $y doing so end up as !oes at the ri#er. This simulation is we $elie#e uni4ue

Aggression
Since our hero always plays aggressi#ely we need to $e a$le to separate out the wins that occur $ecause o! the a$solute winning power o! the hand !rom those that occur $ecause the winning hand !olded $e!ore the showdown at least !or H7 Ta$les 1 2 8 and :. The proportion o! p*win+ that is le!t represents the pure power o! the hand. The !irst step is to !ind out how much o! the total p*win+ is due to the winning hand ha#ing !olded $e!ore the showdown. This is shown in 'igure EEE as !luctuations a$o#e and $elow the ,ero plane..

Figure 2 Value of Aggression

This is easy in the case o! H7 Ta$le / $ecause e#ery !oe is playing aggressi#ely as well. 'igure EE shows the di!!erence $etween chance p*win+ !or each

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 5

condition in our model and actual p*win+ accumulated across all 1;= starting hands. the ,ero plane is chance and you will $e a$le to see that regardless o! the num$er o! players in the game in this case there is no di!!erence $etween chance and actual p*win+s !or H7 Ta$le /. Any !luctuation a$o#e or $elow the ,ero plane in the 'igure re!lects cases where a random hand played aggressi#ely either picks up wins !rom hands that could ha#e won i! they had not !olded *a$o#e ,ero+ or loses wins $ecause the hand was played too aggressi#ely. That is our hero should ha#e !olded sometimes *$elow ,ero+. Somewhere $etween the H7 Ta$le 2 and H7 Ta$le 8 o#erall playing conditions aggression ac4uires #alue at least against a small num$er o! !oes. At some tighter playing conditions aggression with a random starting hand is a losing strategy. At some looser playing conditions aggression with a random hand has positi#e #alue. Since the only di!!erence in the !oes decision rules $etween H7 Ta$les is on whether or not to play $e!ore the !lop we can see that when e#eryone at the Ta$le $elie#es there will $e an a#erage o! a$out / players seeing the !lop or so selecti#e aggression can $ecome an important !actor in play. This increase in o#erall expectation can $e dramatic especially when only 1 or 2 !oes sur#i#e to the ri#er. 'igure 1 also shows as the num$er o! !oes who play to a showdown increases when each has an opportunity to !old the less #alue there is in aggression with a random starting hand. %n other words the more likely you are to $e $eat.

Po er
So $y su$tracting !rom the measured p*win+s in our simulation run the e!!ect o! aggression we are le!t with an estimate o! the pure playing power o! each o! the 1;= starting hands in Texas holdem.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page <

"e turn now to see how well some o! the con#entional authorities and writers ha#e done in the past when attempting to deri#e this estimate o! power .. using pri#ate methods ne#er !ully re#ealed e#en i! you $uy their $ook*s+. "e sill examine in detail the recommendations a$out startintg holdem hands in each o! the !ollowing poker classics Holdem Poker $y 3a#id Sklansky and ?ason ?almuth Winning Low Limit Holdem $y 9ee Fones Super/Systems Power Poker Course in Limit Holdem $y @o$$y 1T!e "wl2 @aldwin in Super/System $y 3oyle 1Te#as $olly2 @runson.

S!lans!y "rou#s
Sklansky was the !irst poker author to ha#e $oth ranked all o! the starting 2)card hands and then grouped them with recommendations a$out how to play each group. 3a#id 1Einstein2 Sklansky *a nickname attri$uted to him in 3oyle @runsons $ook Super/System+ has $een a pro!essional poker player and poker theoretician !or decades and his ad#ice is widely respected. As !or the starting holdem hands did he get it rightG

$he S eet 1%.

9ets start o!! with the good ones. The top 1; ranked starting 2)card Holdem hands are !undamental to solid play. They constitute only a$out 5H o! all hands you will $e dealt howe#er so its impro$a$ly that you will get rich $y limiting your play to &ust these. @ut it is imperati#e !or good play that you I.C" what they are and how well they stack up against each other.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page =

$a)le 1 * S!lans!y+s "rou# 1 hands

AA

II

JJ

FF

AIs

Sklansky *actually Sklansky and ?almuth which we will shorten to SK? to sa#e space here+ de!ined / mem$ers o! Group 1 as shown in Ta$le EEEa$o#e. They also indicate in their $ook that the o#erall rank order o! these hands is as shown reading !rom le!t to right. AA that is is the highest ranking hand o! all. "e con!irmed as shown in 'igure EE that these are indeed the / $est starting 2)card hands as well as that their actual ranks within the group are exactly as SK? represent. AA and II are su$stantially more power!ul than lower ranking hands howe#er e#en than JJ. These two hands are also the only ones with positi#e power ratings at H7 Ta$le 1.

Figure & 'est ( Starting Hands

Lou will recall this was the 1tightest2 H7 Ta$le in our study. -nder #ery tight H7 Ta$le conditions these are the only starting hands that should $e raised !or #alue. @ut as we shall see i! you !ind yoursel! at a #ery tight H7 Ta$le you should pro$a$ly get up and go !ind $etter playing conditions anyway.
$a)le 2 * S!lans!y+s "rou# 2 hands

TT

AJs

AFs

IJs

AI

The SK? Group 2 hands are shown a$o#e. Since SK? indicate that their determination o! relati#e rank order within the group is 1approximately2 as shown !rom le!t to right. we need to point out a minor correction $e!ore otherwise endorsing the mem$eship o! Group 2.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 10

The o#erall power o! AI is slightly greater than that o! IJs so we would re#erse the order o! these two hands within the Group. "e con!irm that the mem$ership o! Group 2 is the same as that asserted $y SK?. Cr rather we con!irm that these hands rank ; 5 < = and 10 in o#erall playing power. Howe#er there is actually a small ad#antage held $y AI o#er IJs so our list *'igure EEE+ shows a correction in the relati#e rank order within the group which is &ust a matter o! !ine detail. ."hy 6aiseG There are 10 hands in these groups $ut they are not treated e4ui#alently !or purposes o! decisions to raise *or not+. Although the SK? rationale !or doing so certainly appears to $e plausi$le enough they do not present any computational rationale or other proo!. Cne must take some o! it on !aith. As it turns out howe#er there ha#e pro$a$ly $een some errors made in these recommendations. SK? gi#e di!!erent reasons !or raising *or not+ including each o! the !ollowing. raise : *AA II JJ AI+ in part $ecause %%t!ey lose mu&! of t!eir 'alue in lar(e multi) way pots% raise : *Aks A4s AFs and IJs+ only sometimes in part $ecause %%t!ey do play well in multi)way pots% raise 1 *FF+ in a tight game %%to (et out !ands like *9% the idea $eing that this hand also loses #alue in multi)way pots or perhaps that it has less #alue at a loose H7 Ta$le .. which is a similar $ut not identical idea. .e#er raise1 *TT+ !or reasons that are not stated.

Figure , -an! %*1. Starting Hands

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 11

These are key ideas in current holdem playing strategy. Since SK? assume certain di!!icult to pro#e !acts that our model encompasses howe#er we can put these assumptions to test. "e measure directly the e!!ect o! multi)way action. Also we #ary the degree o! looseness o! the Ta$le in seeing the !lop. So we can separate out the e!!ects o! H7 Ta$le conditions and num$er o! !oes contesting the pot !or each starting holdem hand. "hen we look at these !acts !or the 10 $est starting hands we get the results shown in Ta$le EEE *$elow+. .
$a)le & * MAD& Sensiti/ity to Playing 0onditions

-an! 1 2 8 : / ; 5 < = 10

Hand $a)le nFoes $ 1 F AA 0.0 0.0 0.0 II 0.1 0.0 0.1 JJ 2.8 1.= 2./ FF /.5 :.; ;.; AIs ;.1 /.8 5.2 TT 5.1 8.5 5.2 AJs /.8 /.: <.= AFs =.5 =.0 18.1 AI 18.8 20.; 25.= IJs /.5 :.2 <.:

The mean a$solute de#iation: *?A3+ in the rank o! a hand among all starting hands is a measure o! sensiti#ity $y the hand to playing conditions. Ta$le EEEshows ?A3s !or #ariations in H7 Ta$le conditions #ariations in num$er o! 4uasi)realistic !oes contesting the pot at the ri#er and in com$inations *or interactions+ o! these two conditions.

The #alue in each cell is the mean a$solute de#iation o! the rank o! the hand across either *a+ the / di!!erent H7 Ta$le conditions *T+ *$+ across the = di!!erent num$ers o! !oes at the ri#er *'+ or *c+ the :/ di!!erent com$inations o! these *Tx's+ which we think o! as 1interactions2 a!ter orthogonal partitioning o! #aria$ility in the parametric case. : ?A3 is a ro$ust estimator . %n these cases the second moment is nearly in!inite making #ariance or the standard de#iation useless.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 12

C! the : hands SK? assume would $e most sensiti#e to multi) way action *AA II JJ AI+ only one *AI+ actually is. %n !act its mean a$solute de#iation in rank *among all 1;= possi$le hands+ due to #arying num$ers o! !oes at the ri#er at 20.; makes it one o! the most sensiti#e o! hands. @y contrast the #ery least sensiti#e hands to multi)way action are AA II and JJ. C! the : hands SK? assume 1play well2 in multi)way pots *AIs AJs AFs and IJs+ this conclusion can only $e correct i! $y playing well what is meant is that in each case the hand ranks at a$out the median o! all 1;= possi$le hands in sensiti#ity to multi)way action. These hands that are presumed to 1play well2 in multi)way pots do .CT increase in relati#e #alue with increasing multi) way action at all as many current poker players are inclined to $elie#e. SK? ignore TT and reser#e a special status !or FF in terms o! multi)way action. Let neither o! these hands seem particularly sensiti#e to multi)way action and it is di!!icult there!ore to take those recommendations too seriously.
$a)le , * Mean -an! Order of Hands

2um)er of Players at -i/er -an! 2 & , ( 1 AA 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2 33 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 & 44 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 , 55 1:.: :.< :.: :.8 ( A3s /.0 /.: /.: 5.2 % $$ 2;.: 11.0 <.0 ;.0 6 A4s =.2 <.; <.; 11.< 7 A5s =.2 <.; <.; 11.< 8 A3 5./ 5.< 10.0 2;.2 1. 34s 11.2 12.2 1<.2 1<.0

% 1.0 2.0 8.0 :.0 2;.; /.< 88.0 88.0 :0.0 20.0

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 18

Another way to look at these assumptions is to show the mean rank order o! each hand !or 2 8 : / or ; !oes at the ri#er as shown in Ta$le EEE *a$o#e+. SK? ignore TT $ut it actually $ene!its !rom multi)way action as does FF. "e would there!ore urge you to consider raising these hands !or #alue i! the raise is not likely to dri#e out !oes in a loose game 'i#e o! these hands are particularly #ulnera$le to hea#y multi) way action the kind that increases the liklihood o! ; or more !oes playing to a showdown *Aks AJs AFs IJs and AI+. "ith moderately loose showdown action they are neither especially sensiti#e one way or the other. Cne hand AI su!!ers tremendously with nearly e#ery additional !oe who plays to a showdown. This is the only hand in the group that should $e raised pre)empti#ely in an e!!ort to weed out the competition. "ith these changes then we would recommend a re)write o! the pre)!lop raising recommendations !or Sklansky Group 1 and Group 2 starting holdem hands.
$a)le ( * S!lans!y "rou# & Hands

88 95$s 45s 35s A$s A4 There are ; mem$ers o! SK? Group 8 as shown in Ta$le EE *a$o#e+. Cne hand FTs doesnt $elong in the group. @ut ITs does. Also the rank order o! each hand in the Grpup is slightly di!!erent than Sklansky suggested. These changes ha#e $een re!lected in 'igure EE which is the rank ordered power hands that !all in the 11th 12th 18th 1:th 1/th and 1;th o#erall. positions

Figure ( -an! 11*1% Starting Hands

This discrepancy has the !ollowing potential impact on player strategy.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1:

SK? recommend playing only Group 1)8 hands in a tough game !rom early position. %! you !ollow this recommendation you should fold FTs !rom an early position in a tough game and start playin( ITs instead. So thats it !or the Sweet 1;. 3id Sklansky get them rightG %n terms o! group mem$ership only 1 hand out o! the 1; needed to $e replaced although error o! ranking within groups tended to increase. %n !act as we shall see this error $ecomes e#en greater as we mo#e down into the area o! 7xpert playing hands. %n terms o! stated rationale !or #arious raising>calling strategies howe#er there was considera$le error among these #ery $est o! hands.

$he :1#ert 2, and the Medium Suited Connector Myth

"hen we add the next highest ranking < cards to the Sweet 1; we reach what we consider to $e the smallest playa$le su$set o! starting hands. %n doing so howe#er we encounter what we ha#e chosen to call the 1+edium Suited Conne&tor myt!.2 9ike most myths it contains some elements o! truth. @ut the truth has $een $lown way out o! proportion.
Figure % * S!lans!y "rou# , Hands

9$8s 34 77 4$s 987s 958s A5 93$s There are !our hands in SK?s Group : that do not $elong. %n the case o! one o! these ITs it got mo#ed up to Group 8 and was replaced $y FTs which was demoted !rom Group 8. This was a relati#ely minor ad&ustment in hand rankings. @ut we are le!t with 8 suited connectors *T=s =<s and F=s+ the #aliues o! which keep $eing redisco#ered e#ery year or so $ut

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1/

whose true #alues ha#e not $een put in perspecti#e in practical terms !or the regular holdem poker player. "e need to consider here the o#erall context to look at all o! the medium suited connecotrs together to gain some perspecti#e. 'igure EEE shows the rank !or each medium *and small+ suited connector starting with T=s and working down through /:s. The mean rank o! these hands is shown !or each o! Ta$les 1 2 8 : and /. Lou will note that the classic 10)player showdown results *T/+ show a #ery simple linear deterioration in the relati#e rank order o! these starting suited connectors as the #alue o! the top card gets smaller. This was disco#ered sometime around 1=52.

Figure 6 $he Medium Suited 0onne;tors

A !ew years later se#eral people disco#ered that some o! the smaller suited connectors *such as <5s and 5;s+ sometimes played $etter than their larger cousins *such as T=s+. This re#ersal o! the 10)player showdown results was $oth surprising and held as a pro!essional holdem players trade secret $y many. This -)Shaped e!!ect is clearly #isi$le in the H7 Ta$le 1 results shown in 'igureEEEE. The pro$lem is that playing in the extremely tight games such as those we characteri,e here $y H7 Ta$le 1 it is di!!icult to make any money( the pots are small *which is the natural conse4uence o! tight players+ and these medium suited connectors e#en though they impro#e dramatically ne#er rise to the le#el o! $eing powerhouse starting hands. %n !act as the games $ecome looser there is a clear trend #isi$le in Ta$le EEE !or the showdown linearities to dominate. 7#en i! you think youre playing under the ideal conditions !or medium suited connectors i! one player lea#es or a new player &oins the game your assumption may suddenly no

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1;

longer $e correct and intertia could easily lead you to end up playing what are &ust relati#ely weak hands. Another thing that is potentially dangerous is to rely on #arious 1pro$e2 so!tware packages common a#aila$le today that allow you to pit one hand against another to a showdown seeing which o! them is $etter. These would $e !ine and the results relia$le so long as there do not exist any underlying non) linearities o! the type #isi$le in 'igure EE !or medium suited connectors. @ut we 3C know that ass&mption is incorrect and it has $een known to $e incorrect in the poker literatures !or decades. "e recommend that unless you Figure 7 -an! 16*2, Starting Hands already know the answers to the 4uestions youre seeking and simply want to $e precise you do .CT use isolated one)on)one type simulations at all *the -)Shaped !unction we#e already discussed is not the only one in the underlying !a$ric o! Texas holdem+. Turning $ack now to the Sklansky Group : hands we need to replace the : de#iant hands $y $etter ones.*A<s A=s FTs and AT+. @ecause the T: and T/ H7 Ta$le conditions still ha#e positi#e power ratings two o! these *F=s and T=s+ ha#e a high enough o#erall power index to &ust $e demoted to Group / while the third *=<s+ slips down to Group ;.

$he Star/ing Play <ist

"e come now to our !irst o#erall recommendations regarding limit holdem play strategies. "e call it the 1Star#ing Play 9ist2 $ecause it should $e appropriate to the most risk)a#erse or conser#ati#e player. Pick your 10)player H7 Ta$le care!ully. 9ook !or players who seem to $e ha#ing !un and where at least hal! o! the stay in to see the !lop. Ta$le selection is a

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 15

ma&or determinant o! how well your hands will hold up in the long run. Play only the top 2: hands as shown in 'igureEE thruEE. @e sure to note that the !igures indicate groups rather than particular hands. That is AdTd means ATs and IcJh means any IJ except IJs etc. %n poker when e#ery other player knows what your hand is you su!!er tremendous disad#antage. Fust playing good cards is not su!!icient nor is raising AA and II only. Lou need a care!ully planned $ut hard to read raising strategy. "e suggest using what we call a 1parallel (ame2 plan. Suppose you play lower limit games like 8>; />10> ;>12 and 10>20 $ut would play other games such as ;>; or 10>10 i! they were spread. Lou can decide to play two di!!erent limit games at the same time at the same ta$le simply $y ha#ing the !ollowing $etting strategy( play hands 1)12 at a M10>M10 H7 Ta$le while hands 18)2: you play at the M/>M10 H7 Ta$le. This is 4uite simple. Lou &ust decide to always raise hands 1)12 and ne#er raise hands 18)2:. Ctherwise make appropriate other ad&ustments in your response to raises $y other players $e!ore the !lop. Lou can also ad&ust the !raction o! hands you play that youll raise and so on. The Star#ing Play 9ist will allow you to play a$out 8 hands per hour under typical playing conditions. Nery conser#ati#e $ut it will re4uire a great deal o! patience.

$he $ight :1#erts Play <ist

%! youd like to play more hands and are an experienced player then consider the 1Ti(!t E#perts Play List2 which adds the hands that $elong to a corrected SklanskyGroup /. The original mem$ers o! Sklanskys Group / arranged in the order suggested $y SK? are shown $elow in Ta$le EE.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1<

Figure 8 * S!lans!y+s "rou# ( Hands

66 976s 48s 9$7s 35 45 5$ 96%s 986s OA=s OA<s A5s A;s A/s A:s A8s A2s O;/s There are 1< hands in Sklanskys Group /. @ut 5 o! these $elong elsewhere. Two *A=s A<s+ deser#ed promotion to Group : as we ha#e already seen. The !i#e remaining hands are weak suited connectors and 1semi)connectors2 *T<s =5s <5s 5;s and ;/s+. "e ha#e already discussed the error associated with o#er)rating the nonlinearities in these hands especially <5s and 5;s. @ut these are also among the most sensiti#e hands to $oth num$er o! !oes and o#erall tight>loose H7 Ta$le playing conditions. ;/s !or example ranks 2/th *out o! 1;=+ in sensiti#ity to H7 Ta$le conditions 2:th in sensiti#ity to num$er o! !oes at the ri#er and 2=th in sensiti#ity to interactions $etween these !actors. %ndirectly as a result o! their *a+ extreme power nonlinearities and *$+ extreme sensiti#ity to H7 Figure 1.* -an! 2(*,2 Hands Ta$le playing conditions these hands drop out o! the top <: starting hands entirely. %n typical limit holdem casino games at mid and lower limits these hands should $e !olded $y the ad#anced player. The three others *<5s =5s and T<s+ are simply demoted. T<s goes to Group ; while <5s and =5s get mo#ed down to Group 5. The 5 additions to Group / include two *IT and JT+ that are o$#iously closely related to three original mem$ers *IF JF and FT+ and !i#e higher ranking suited hands *I=s I<s J<s

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 1=

T=s and F=s+ than the small suited connectors they replace. This is $ecause with suited starting hands the rank o! the kicker is usually more important than the connected)ness o! their #alues although with T=s $oth !actors may com$ine. %! you otherwise !ollow the SK? guides to poker strategy some o! these changes would impact how you play the game. 'or example ,some !ands- su&! as ./s%%play well a(ainst many opponents% 0f t!ere are usually a lot of &allers %%% t!ese types of !ands be&ome playable in early position% Howe'er- o'er playin( t!ese !ands up front 1and most players do 2ust t!at3 &an (et you into trouble% 1S4+p%563% <5s is now a Group 5 hand which SK? do not recommend !or play in early position at all. The pro$lem o! course is that recommending the play o! <5s against 1many2 opponents without speci!ying exactly how many or the conse4uences o! not counting accurately is not clear guidance. SK? do howe#er pro#ide themsel#es an out $y the o$ser#ation that 1most players2 o#er play these hands. "e would agree $oth with *a+ not playing Group 5 hands in early position and *$+ that any$ody who does is o#er playing them. Lou will $e dealt one o! these starting hands ranked 1 to :2 glo$ally a$out once in e#ery / hands. This means you should $e in#ol#ed in a$out ; pots per hour. "e consider this to $e the Ti(!t E#perts Play List%

$he Professionals Play <ist

"e turn now to Sklanskys Group ; hands as shown in Ta$le EE $elow.
$a)le % * S!lans!y+s "rou# % Hands

%% 9A$ 9(( 97%s 93$ 94$ 9(,s 938s 57s

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 20

There are = mem$ers o! SK?s original Group ;. 'our o! these ha#e already $een promoted( AT to Group : and three *I=s IT and JT+ up to Group /. Cne *//+ deser#es demotion to Group 5. A medium 1 gap suited connector *<;s+ is dropped !rom the list o! playa$le hands entirely. %t has a power pro!ile across H7 Ta$le conditions similar to those discussed earlier as Group / de#iant suited connectors. Also its the <;th ranking hand o#erall. "e#e replaced these 5 changes with the highest a#aila$le power ratings *T<s I5s =<s A= I;s I/s and A<+. Some o! these are demotions !rom higher Sklansky Groups as descri$ed pre#iously.

Figure 11 * -an! ,&*(1 Starting Hands

These starting hands ranking !rom 1 up to /1 constitute 2:H o! all starting hands. %! you !ollow this Professionals Play List- youll $et in a$out 1>:th o! the pots at your H7 Ta$le. @ut choose your H7 Ta$le with care. 9ea#e tight games or change your strategy.

$he Sa//y "am)lers Play <ist

"e turn now to Sklanskys original Group 5 hands as shown $elow in Ta$le EEE.
$a)le 6 * S!lans!y+s "rou# 6 Hands

9,, 58 9,&s 96(s $8 9&& 987 9%,s 922 937s 936s 93%s 93(s 3,s 3&s 32s 47s There are 15 hands in this Group. -n!ortunately 11 o! these do not $elong here. The two low pairs 22 and 88 are not worth playing. Group <. They ha#e $een dropped !rom all our play lists entirely.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 21

.either are the small suited connectors ;:s :8s 5/s or the connector =<.. The pair :: is demoted down to Group <. Suited medium Ixs ha#e $een under #alued $y SK? and each o! these deser#es promotion out o! Group 5( I<s up to Group / while I5s I;s and I/s were promoted up to Group ;. SK? had originally placed all Ixs !rom I2s through I<s into this single Group. "e also recommend a slightly di!!erent playing strategy with the corrected Group 5 hands. SK? recommend Group 5 only when youre on the @utton with one or more callers in !ront. %n particular they recommend raising with the small pairs or small suited connectors. @ut all o! Figure 12 * -an! (2*%7 Starting Hands these hands ha#e either mo#ed down to Group < or taken entirely o!! the play lists. 7ach depended on hitting the !lop with trips or a !lush>straight draw. %t turns out howe#er there is more #alue in hoping to hit the !lop !or a Iing)high !lush draw. %! there is merit in the SK? strategy !or @utton raises with Group 5 hands in general then you should consider each o! these hands !or the !ollowing decision paths( either call unraised pots in late position raise an unraissed pot !rom the @utton or otherwise !old these Group 5 hands. %! you#e played one then wait !or the !lop and i! you ha#ent made a hand such as a !lush draw trips or two pair !old. The Sa''y 7ambler will ha#e these hands in his>her Play 9ist knowing $oth that they are good hands with a good !lop that !oes generally discount the liklihood youll $e holding them thus encouraging action when the !lop doesnt look too scarey and he>she will ha#e the iron discipline to discard them on those many rounds when the !lop goes elsewhere.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 22

The gam$ling part o! this Play 9ist is in the need to pray or otherwise in#oke the Poker Gods !or a suita$le !lop more than with hands in the other groups. @y adopting the Sa##y Gam$lers Play 9ist without regard to your position you would on a#erage participate in a$out 1>8rd o! all pots at your H7 Ta$le. The actual num$er will !all in the range o! 1>:rd up to 1>8rd $ecause o! raising $y other players and your opportunities !or late play o! these hands. As is true in general o! course stay away !rom #ery tight H7 Ta$les.

$he "am)lers Play <ist

"e turn now to the Group < hands which when added to all o! the pre#ious Play 9ists constitute up to ::H o! all hands dealt in Texas Holdem.
$a)le 7 * S!lans!y "rou# 7 Hands

976 9(&s 9A8 948 96% 9,2s 9&2s 98%s O</s F< OF5s O;/ O/: O5:s OI= T< There are 1; hands in SK?s original Group <. C! these only 2 $elong in the group. 'our hands deser#ed promotion( A= was mo#ed to Group ; while I= J= and F5s were mo#ed to Group 5. Ctherwise all o! the remaining changes are demotions out o! the Play 9ists entirely. 7xamples are the medium connectors <5 5; ;/ and /: and the small suited connectors /8s :2s and 82s. "hile these hands can sometimes hit ideal !lops and might $e played occasionally !or surprise #alue they are not ro$ust enough o#erall !or us to recommend their play e#en on the 7amblers List.

Figure 1& * -an! %8*7, Starting Hands

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 28

$he 5ones 0om)inations

9ee Fones in his $ook 18innin( Low Limit Holdem 2 does not rank all playa$le hands so we will ha#e to take a slightly di!!erent approach to e#aluating his recommendations. :arly Position 6aise with AI JJ and FF i! %%it will limit t!e field.2 "e would strongly urge raising with AI !or this purpose as we ha#e seen. The #alue o! AI deteriorates dramatically as the num$er o! realistic !oes increases $eyond one at the ri#er. 9ut :: and ;; a&tually !old up well so i! you raise these hands it should $e !or #alue rather than to limit the !ield. 1Always re)raise with AA and II2. Les we agree entirely.
$a)le 8 * 5ones :arly Position Hands

AA 33 44 55 $$ A3s 34s 45s 95$s AJs IFs OJTs AFs ITs AI OIJ AJ OAF The ta$le a$o#e shows 1< hands that Fones recommends !or early position play. %! we assume that these would $e the top 1< ranked hands in the game then : o! these do not $elong( JTs FTs IJ or AF. %n their place should $e ATs AJ == and <<. @ut Fones goes on to say that 1..if t!e (ame is loose)passi'e add%%2 == << 55 ;; =<s <5s JF FT T= and =< to the list a$o#e. These should $e the 1=th thru 2<th ranked hands. -n!ortunately we show little correspondence with these recommendations. So !ar o! 2< starting hands recommended $y Fones we would agree with only a$out hal!. This is su$stantially less than !or Sklansky and ?almuth. "e lea#e it as a readers exercise to work out the details to compare our rankings with what we ha#e to assume must $e Fones rankings.

Players Guide to the starting hands in Holdem Page 2:

"rap)-p
"e ha#e during the course o! examining in detail the hand rankings o! Sklansky and ?almuth as put !orth in their $ook 1Holdem Poker <or *d'an&ed Players 2 updated and re#ised their rankings and reasons !or playing or raising some starting hands. "e#e also presented !i#e o#erall playing strategies !or you to consider in the !orm o! Play 9ists.
$a)le 1. * $he ( Play <ist Strategies

Personality Star#ing Tight 7xpert Pro!essional Sa##y Gam$ler Good Gam$ler

Play 11.8H 20.0H 2:.0H 82.=H :8.=H

$hreshold Top 2: hands Top :2 hands Top /1 hands Top ;< hands Top <: hands

"hy not &ust wait !or AA and only play it !olding e#ery other hand that you are dealtG @ecause o! the need to post $linds in holdem you pay !or playing at the rate o! a$out : P small $ets *:./s$+ per hour %! you waited only !or AA youd $e waiting an a#erage o! /)5 hours to play one hand at a cost o! 25s$. This is a !airly good net pot to win &ust to $reak e#en Q assuming AA always won which o! course it doesnt. Holdem is structured so that you must play to win. 7ach o! the recommended Play 9ists should suit some holdem player. @ut playing any one o! them will re4uire patience and discipline.