M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014

1
WSachse; 2/2014; M&AE 3272 1
Banff Mountain Film Festival
Friday, February 14, 2014 at 7:00pm to 10:00pm
Bailey Hall, Auditorium
WSachse; 2/2014;
Entering and Processing of your Data
in your Notebook on LabArchives:
M&AE 3272 2
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1. Bring your laptop to Lab and do all work in your Notebook on
the LabArchives WEB-site.
Advantages: Data is all in one place; Backed-up at once.
Disadvantages: A bit cumbersome to use, hence slow.
2. Bring your PC laptop to Lab and collect and process the data
(manual-collected as well as machine output) using Excel
which you can save directly in your Notebook on LabArchives.
3. Bring a Tablet to Lab running Notability (or equivalent); on this
you can enter the data directly and E-mail the results to:
inbox@labarchives.com.(The data will be in the `Inbox in your Notebook.)
4.Write your results on pieces of paper which you should scan
immediately into PDF-files which you can then drag into your
Notebook on LabArchives. This is not recommended unless
you cant do it via one of the better ways described above!
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M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
2
WSachse; 2/2014;
Module 1 Deliverables Schedule:
M&AE 3272 3
WSachse; 2/2014;
Your NEW
Material Test
Data Sheets:
0 f /A A 1 RA % =
0 0 f f /L ) L (L =
f f 0 0 L A L A =
1
RA %
+
=
f
f

M&AE 3272 4
Expected Reduction
of Area:
Incompressibility:
(Available on Blackboard or
as Widgets in LabArchives)
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
3
WSachse; 2/2014; M&AE 3272 5
M&AE 3272: Mechanical Property
and Performance Laboratory
Derailment of the Granville-
Paris Express at the Gare
Montparnasse on 22 October
1895.
Uncertainties
(Errors) of
Measurements
WSachse; 2/2014; M&AE 3272 6
The USS Guardian drove hard onto
Tubbataha Reef in the Sulu Sea around
2:25 a.m. on Jan. 17
th
. The reef is about
80 miles east-southeast of Palawan Island
and is a World Heritage site.
M&AE 3272: Mechanical Property
and Performance Laboratory
Tubbataha Reef was incorrectly
positioned on the coastal scale
Digital Nautical Chart the
Coastal DNC showed it about 8
nautical miles from where it
should have been. It was
correctly positioned on the
General scale DNC and on the
standard paper chart.
Cost: $277M + Fines
Recent Expensive Error:
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
4
WSachse; 2/2014;
Disasters caused by Numerical Errors:
M&AE 3272 7
http://ta.twi.tudelft.nl/users/vuik/wi211/disasters.html
Patriot Missile Failure
Explosion of the Ariane 5
EURO page: Conversion Arithmetics
The Vancouver Stock Exchange
Rounding error changes Parliament makeup
The sinking of the Sleipner A offshore platform
Tacoma bridge failure (wrong design)
$200M typing error (typing error)
What's 77.1 x 850? Don't ask Excel 2007
Collection of Software Bugs
Gyroscope and accelerometer data fed to a
computer. Sideways velocity of rocket converted
from 64-bit format to a 16-bit format. When the
number got too large, overflow resulted, shutting
down the guidance system, forcing the rocket off-
course which was then destroyed.
Loss: $500M; Two 3-ton satellites (uninsured.)
Explosion of the Ariane 5; June 4, 1996
WSachse; 2/2014;
Errors in Processing Experimental Data:
M&AE 3272 8
Explosion of the Ariane 5; June 4, 1996
Gyroscope Data
A/D Converter
Accelerometer Data
A/D Converter
000000001011100111110010 24 bits
Computed Horizontal Velocity
000000001011100111110010 24 bits 1011100111110010 16 bits
1011100111110010 Signed 15 bits (-32,768 to +32,767)
0 = plus ; 1 = minus
When the computed horizontal velocity of the rocket exceeded the value 32,768, an
Overflow Error resulted and the guidance system shut down, leading to the self-
destruction of the rocket! Ariane 5 was a faster rocket but no one had ever thought that
the lowest 16 bits wouldnt be enough to cover the range of expected velocity values.
Tiny details can have terrible consequences. . . . Jacques Durand, head of Ariane Program
( 0 to 65,535 )
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
5
WSachse; 2/2014;
Curve Fitting to Data, NOT:
2
0.23x 1.08x 0.516 y + =
M&AE 3272 9
Best fit quadratic
polynomial is given by
Or this!!!
From David W Roubik, Science, 201, 1030 (1978)
WSachse; 2/2014;
Uncertainties/Errors of Measurements:
M&AE 3272 10
The true value of a measured quantity is that obtained
when all errors from instruments and data processing
procedure are eliminated.
We can never hope to measure true values!
No measurement is complete without considering the
probable errors.
There are two types of Errors:
o Indeterminate Errors Operator errors/biases,
fluctuating measurement conditions, variability of
the measurement system. Usually random.
o Determinate/Systematic Errors
Instrument/Procedural bias; Experimental blunders.
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
6
WSachse; 2/2014;
Indeterminate/
Random
Errors:
M&AE 3272 11
Determinate/
Systematic
Errors:
WSachse; 2/2014;
Accuracy and Precision:
M&AE 3272 12
Both are required for a good (valid) measurement!
Small Indeterminate Error
= High Precision
Small Indeterminate + Small Determinate Errors
= High Accuracy
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
7
WSachse; 2/2014;
A Little Bit of Statistics: Random Processes
2
2
2
) (
) (
x x
Ae x N

=
) ( x
) ( 2 x
M&AE 3272 13
N
u
m
b
e
r

Sum
68% of Gaussian Area lies between
95% of Gaussian Area lies between
) ( x
) ( 2 x
WSachse; 2/2014;
Processing Data as a Normal Distribution:
2
2
2
) (
) (
x x
Ae x N

=
2 1
1
2
1
1
/
) (
)
`

=

=
N
i
i x
x x
N

M&AE 3272 14

=
=
N
i
i
x
N
x
1
1
Estimated Mean/Average
Data Value:
Estimated Standard
Deviation:
True Values of the Mean
and Standard Deviations
can only be found if
there are infinity data!
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
8
WSachse; 2/2014;
Significant Figures:
M&AE 3272 15
1. The leftmost non-zero digit is the most significant digit;
2. If there is no decimal point, the rightmost, non-zero
digit is the least significant;
3. If there is a decimal point, the rightmost digit is the
least significant, even if it is zero.
4. All digits between the least significant and the most
significant (inclusive) are themselves significant.
2,314
2,314,000
2.314
0.02134
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
9009
9.009
0.000009009
9.000
WSachse; 2/2014;
Reading Errors; Significant Figures:
M&AE 3272 16
What are the minimum and maximum values that the experiment
could have for which we will not see any difference in output?
+ one-half of last digit
one-half of the power
of ten of the last digit
X0.1=0.05
12.80+0.05
o
C
Significant Figures
.xxx; xx.x; xxx 3 SF
If a zero has a non-0 digit to
its left, then the zero is
significant: x.00 3 SF
x00 3 SF; x.0000x 6 SF
Guesstimate
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
9
WSachse; 2/2014;
Significant Figures in Data:
2
2
2
) (
) (
x x
Ae x N

=
2 1
1
2
1
1
/
) (
)
`

=

=
N
i
i x
x x
N

2 2
=
N
est
est

M&AE 3272 17
Estimated Mean/Average
Data Value:
Estimated Standard
Deviation:
Expected Uncertainty in the
Estimated Standard Deviation:
For experimental data, the error in a quantity
defines how many figures are significant.

=
=
N
i
i
x
N
x
1
1
= == =
2
x
Variance
WSachse; 2/2014;
Sum/Difference: z = x + y z = [x
2
+y
2
]
1/2
Product/Quotient: z = x*y; z = x/y
Power: z = x
n

General Case: z = f(x,y)
Etc.
Propagation of Errors of Precision:
2 2
|
|

\
|
+ |

\
|
=

y
y
x
x
z
z
|

\
|
=

x
x
n
z
z
2 2
2
|
|

\
|

+ |

\
|

= y
dy
y x f
x
dx
y x f
z
) , ( ) , (
M&AE 3272 18
Given two measured quantities: x and y; independent
and their errors: x and y . . .
Fractional Error: x/x and y/y ; %-error: x100%
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
10
WSachse; 2/2014;
Type II - Error of the Mean:
( ) ( )
N
x
N
x N
x
x N x x x
est
N

=
= + +
2
2
2
2
1 ) ( ...

=
= =
N
i
est i
x x
N
x
1
1
M&AE 3272 19
Recall that the estimated mean value was given by:
Standard Deviation of Mean:
error in each x
i
is x
i
(Deviation)
provides a way of increasing the precision of the
measurements!
Measurement Result: x
est
+ x
est
_ _
The Standard Deviation of the Mean is used to
describe the precision of the mean of a set of data.
WSachse; 2/2014;
Error Analysis: Implementation
M&AE 3272 20
Depends on Data Measured:
1. A series of measurements taken with one or
more variables changed for each data point.
Example: Calibration of a load cell, in which an
output voltage is determined for a number of
different applied test loads.
2. Repeat measurements of the same physical
quantity, with all variables held as constant
as experimentally possible.
Example: Multiple hardness measurements on
a specimen.
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
11
WSachse; 2/2014;
Type I - Example: Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 21
We want to find the best straight line:
to fit a set of measured data

B BB B



The least-squares estimates for A AA A and B BB B are
found to be:
where:

Implemented in Matlab, Excel and numerous others.
( )
2 2
2
( ) 1
i
i
i i
y y x
y a bx

( (
= =
( (


WSachse; 2/2014;
Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 22
The relationship between X and
Y is a straight-line (linear)
relationship.
The values of the independent
variable X are assumed fixed
(not random); the only
randomness in the values of Y
comes from the error term .
The errors are uncorrelated
(i.e. independent) in successive
observations. The errors are
normally distributed with mean 0
and variance
2
(equal
variance). That is: ~ N(0,
2
)
X
Y
LINE assumptions of the Simple
Linear Regression Model
Identical normal
distributions of errors,
all centered on the
regression line.
Y
y|x
= + X
Y
N(Y
y|x
,
y|x
2
)
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
12
WSachse; 2/2014;
Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 23
Example (using Genplot): . .
x y
2.0 42.0
4.0 49.4
6.0 50.3
8.0 56.3
10.0 58.3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Input Data
40
45
50
55
60
O
u
t
p
u
t
D
a
t
a
Measured Data /w Error Bars
Best Fit Line
Slope (Calibration): 1.975 +/- 0.275
Offset (Zero Value): 39.41 +/- 1.82
WSachse; 2/2014;
Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 24
Effect of Data Error Bounds on computed Line Parameters:
using Excel
using Genplot
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
13
WSachse; 2/2014;
Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 25
Effect of Data Error Bounds on computed Line Parameters:
Uncertainty
in the
Coefficients:

y yy y
=

M. O. Thompson, 2011
WSachse; 2/2014;
Linear Least-squares Fit:
M&AE 3272 26
Actually:
Y2* Y2* Y2* Y2*X XX X7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
0.5 *sin 20*X 0.5 *sin 20*X 0.5 *sin 20*X 0.5 *sin 20*X
0.05*Noise 0.05*Noise 0.05*Noise 0.05*Noise
M. O. Thompson, 2011
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
14
WSachse; 2/2014;
Type II - Error of the Mean:
( ) ( )
N
x
N
x N
x
x N x x x
est
N

=
= + +
2
2
2
2
1 ) ( ...

=
= =
N
i
est i
x x
N
x
1
1
M&AE 3272 27
Recall that the estimated mean value was given by:
Standard Deviation of Mean:
error in each x
i
is x
i
(Deviation)
provides a way of increasing the precision of the
measurements!
Measurement Result: x
est
+ x
est
_ _
The Standard Deviation of the Mean is used to
describe the precision of the mean of a set of data.
WSachse; 2/2014;
Example: Rockwell Hardness Measurements
R
C
67.3 68.3 66.1 67.8 67.6 66.6 68.1 66.7 67.6 66.5
Devs 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.8
M&AE 3272 28
Rockwell C Measurements xx.x (Digital) +0.05
R
C
Deviations
Sum 672.6
2
: 5.00
Mean R
C
67.26

est
0.7+0.17
R
C
0.24
R
C
= 67.3 + 0.2
Measured Data
Computed Deviations from Mean Value (Abs Value)
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
15
WSachse; 2/2014;
Example: Ultrasonic Wavespeed Measurement
2 1
2 2
/
(
(

\
|
+ |

\
|
=
t
t
h
h
v v
est est
|

\
|
=
t
h
v
est
2
est est
v v
M&AE 3272 29
v = 2h/t : h Specimen thickness; t Travel time
Suppose Measured Data: h = 12.7+0.01 mm
t = 3.97+0.01 s
Determine:
And:
Wavespeed: 6.40 0.02 mm/s
WSachse; 2/2014;
How to Delete Bad Data . . .
. . .and Feel Good about it:
M&AE 3272 30
When you are experimenting and you come across anything you don't
thoroughly understand, don't rest until you run it down; it may be the very
thing you are looking for -OR- it may be something far more important.
-- Thomas A Edison
A Word of Caution:
Chauvenets Criterion:
If a data point has value that is ridiculously improbable then
it can be rejected.
Ridiculously improbable: If the expected number of a deviant
measurement n -- which equals the number N
measurements times the Probability for a data point to lie
outside 2 from the mean value -- is less than 1/2, then it is
ridiculously improbable.
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
16
WSachse; 2/2014;
Chauvenets Criterion:
M&AE 3272 31
If a data point has a value that is ridiculously improbable,
then it can be rejected.
Ridiculously improbable: If the expected number of deviant
measurements n -- which equals the number N
measurements times the Probability for a data point to lie
outside 2 from the mean value -- is less than 1/2, then it is
ridiculously improbable.
_
Data Points: x
1
, x
2
, x
3
, . . . x
N
Compute: x and
x
Determine the number of
x
by which x
sus
differs from x
t
sus
= | x
sus
- x |/
x
. Find the Probability for a data
point to lie outside ( ) and multiply by N the total
number of data points to give the number n of deviant
measurements. If n , you can reject .
_
t
sus

x
x
sus
_
WSachse; 2/2014;
Example: Rockwell Hardness Measurements
R
C
67.3 68.3 67.8 67.6 66.6 68.1 66.7 67.6 66.5
Devs 0.7 0.3 5.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 0.1 1.3 0.4 1.5
M&AE 3272 32
Rockwell C Measurements xx.x (Digital) +0.05
R
C
Deviations
Sum 679.6
2
: 32.86
Mean R
C
67.96

est
1.9+0.45
R
C
0.60
R
C
= 68.0 + 0.6
Measured Data
Computed Deviations from Mean Value (Abs Value)
73.1 73.1
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
17
WSachse; 2/2014;
Chauvenets Criterion:
M&AE 3272 33
_
From the data: x = 68.0;
x
sus
= 73.1 and
x
= 1.9.
t
sus
= | x
sus
- x |/
x
= 2.66
Probability for a data point to lie
inside ( 2.66
x
) is 0.9920 and so
the Probability for a data point to
lie outside (2.66
x
) is 0.008 .
In N =10 measurements we
expect 0.08 data points to be
deviant which is , so we can
reject the value 73.1 .
_
_
WSachse; 2/2014;
Example: Rockwell Hardness Measurements
R
C
67.3 68.3 73.1 67.8 67.6 66.6 68.1 66.7 67.6 66.5
Devs 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.9
M&AE 3272 34
Rockwell C Measurements xx.x (Digital) +0.05
R
C
Deviations
Sum 606.5
2
: 3.49
Mean R
C
67.4

est
0.7+0.17
R
C
0.22
R
C
= 67.4 + 0.2
Measured Data
Computed Deviations from Mean Value (Abs Value)
M&AE 3272 Lecture #2 3 February 2014
18
WSachse; 2/2014;
Tasks to do this Week:
M&AE 3272 35
If you had Lab last week, start processing your data and fill-in the Data
Sheets. You should upload all your work plus the Data Sheets to
LabArchives. Alternatively, you can process all your data on LabArchives
and complete the Widgets. All your results those that will be graded
must be in the Folder: Module 1 Report.
Write the 200-500 word Abstract of what
you did and the results you obtained in
this Lab Module. Upload to LabArchives.
Evaluate Density; Rockwell and Vickers Hardnesses; Yield Strength;
Ultimate Tensile Strength; Elongation to Fracture; Reduction of Area;
Moduli of Elasticity (from Tensile Test; from ultrasonic measurements);
Bulk Modulus and Poissons Ratio. Complete Data Sheets or Widgets.
Lab Sections #405, #414, #406, #407, #412, #408 and #410
meet this week. Go to B30 Upson.