The Next Step for the E.U.

-- Printout -- TIME 09-10-29 3:53 AM

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Monday, Oct. 19, 2009

The Next Step for the E.U.

By Michael Elliott

The Irish question — the 21st century version of it, not the one that so vexed Victorian statesmen —
has been settled. Ireland's Oct. 2 referendum vote in favor of the Lisbon Treaty and a new
constitutional settlement for the European Union was decisive. It seems highly likely that Poland and
the Czech Republic, the two holdouts in the process of ratifying the new treaty, will fall into line
soon, however much it may pain Czech President Vaclav Klaus, the Saint-Just of Euroskepticism, to
sign the document. By the beginning of next year, new institutional arrangements for the E.U. will be
in place.

Then what? First, perhaps, a pause for breath. In 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down, there were
12 members of the European Community, as the E.U. was then known. Now there are 27. Inevitably,
institutional reform of this metastasizing body has dominated debate for years, as its members have
tried to figure how to make the damn thing work. The attention of political leaders has been directed
inward, at just the time when tectonic movements outside Europe — the revival of political Islam, the
economic rise of Asia — have both threatened and diminished Europe's centrality in world affairs.
(Read: "Irish Ayes on Lisbon Treaty Have Europe Smiling")

The E.U. will doubtless continue to grow. But any new members will join a club whose rules, pretty
much, are fixed. The years of debilitating internal argument are drawing to an end. (With one caveat;
we'll get to that in a moment.) Europeans have their best opportunity for more than a decade to help
shape international policy on pressing global issues.

On climate change and on the new architecture of the international financial system, the E.U. is
already doing that. On questions of security, like the war in Afghanistan and the risk that the Horn of
Africa will become a new center of global terrorism, it's not quite there. Much is going to depend on
personnel. If the new President of the E.U. is a person of international stature (as former British
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personnel. If the new President of the E.U. is a person of international stature (as former British
Prime Minister Tony Blair, the front-runner for the post, plainly is), able to project Europe's view
while convincing the smaller members of the union that their voices count, then Europe is going to
be a bigger player internationally. In time, this could be to the enormous advantage of the U.S.,
which has neither the will nor the wallet to tackle every crisis on its own, and would love the
wholehearted partnership of an engaged, rich, democratic community on the eastern shore of the
Atlantic. (See pictures of Tony Blair.)

The caveat, of course — talk about tiresome — is the internal state of British politics. Britain must
have an election by next May; it is highly likely that it will be won by a Conservative Party, led by
David Cameron, in which Euroskepticism seems as firmly rooted as it was when Margaret Thatcher
gave her famous speech in Bruges 21 years ago. Cameron, who has taken his party out of the center-
right European parliamentary grouping, annoying German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French
President Nicolas Sarkozy, has promised a referendum on Lisbon if the treaty is not ratified by all
E.U. members before the election. It probably will be; but even if Cameron resists pressure from his
party to hold a vote, come what may, he is likely to try and renegotiate parts of the treaty, for
example on justice and social policy, to give Britain more "opt-outs." (Read: "Nasty No More?
Britain's Tories Reach Out to Gays.")

We will leave it to another day to consider whether such an exercise would be a sensible way for a
new Prime Minister with ambitious goals to spend his time. The bigger question is what Cameron
thinks Britain gains from being such a pain to its European colleagues. One consequence is already
plain: as TIME noted last week, in Paris and Berlin there is new energy behind Franco-German
cooperation, and you can bet your bottom dollar that is partly because Merkel and Sarkozy have
taken a look at Cameron, remembered the havoc Thatcher caused in the 1980s and thought, "Uh-oh.
Is that a handbag he's carrying?" (Read: "Can France and Germany Fall in Love Again?")

Even more importantly, a British disengagement from E.U. decision-making would aggravate the U.S.
Washington wants Britain to be central to European policy, because it believes — with some reason
— that London's view on international security and economic issues tends to be closer to its own
than that of other European powers.

Conservative politicians have a hard time believing this. I've seen it too often. They fly to
Washington. They give speeches in congenial think tanks and have dinners with like-minded friends.
They return to London convinced the U.S. would welcome a Britain that spoke independently of the
E.U. and other powers within it. I may not have learned much from watching Anglo-American
relations for 25 years, but I do know this: whatever party is in power in the U.S., that is a delusion.
Cameron can discover that now, and commit himself to working with others in the E.U. — and with
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Cameron can discover that now, and commit himself to working with others in the E.U. — and with
its American allies — to build a better world; or he can discover it later. But discover it he will.

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