PoliticalViolenceinSouthSudan:Canthecountrybeatpeaceby2020? ThetopicofpoliticalviolenceisimportantbecauseSouthSudanisconstantlyinconflict withitself.Therearenumerousissuesthathavearisenfrombeinganew,underdeveloped country.Theinstabilityofthegovernmenthasleadtocivilianabusebythearmy,anattemptofa coup,andethnicviolence.Thispoliticalviolenceiscreatinganenvironmentwhichiscausing manypeopletofleetheirowncountry.Itisalsogettingtothepointofevolvingintoacivilwar becauseofthetensionsbetweentwoethnicities,theNuerandtheDinka. Problem:PoliticalviolenceoftheSouthSudanisworseningtheconditionofthealready underdevelopedcountry.Itiscausingnumerousotherproblemsaswell,suchaspeopleleaving thecountryandothercountriesevacuatingtheiremployees. TheproblemofpoliticalviolenceinSouthSudanhasbeengoingonforlessthanamonth now,andhasleftmorethan1,000peoplemurderedandalmost200,000peopledisplaced. WhathadstartedduetotheclaimedcorruptionofPresidentKiirsleadership,theactionsofthat rebellionarenowactingshowthatethnicdifferencescouldbetherootforthisviolence.

The rebels,leadbyRiekMachar,areprimarilyNuer,whichhasbeencausingnumerousother issues.Dinkasarenotallowedtoflyoutofthecountrybecausetheantigovernmentforces havetakenovertheairports.DuetothelargeamountofdeadDinkacivilians,theyarethoughtto betargeted.TheviolencehascausedmanyDinkastofleetheirhomestotrytoreachUN compounds.ManydonotmakeitfromdrowningintheWhiteNileorfromgettingshottodeath bysoldiers.Thesafetyofciviliansareatahugerisk,throughtheirownfearandbybeing targetedbythearmy.Theyareinnocentanddefenseless,yettheyarestillslaughtered,which bringsupapotentialethniccleansingleadbyRiekMachar. WhatisBeingDone: TherearenumerouskindsoforganizationsthatarehelpingtomakingSouthSudanamore peacefulcountryafewofthesegroupsdealwithhumanitarian,health,andpoliticalefforts. SudanDevelopmentFoundation Theyrunamedicalfacilitythatfocusesonthehealthofwomenandchildrenin Awerial.ItwascofoundedbyAbrahamAlowich,oneoftheLostBoys.Thereare numerouschallengesthatitfacesduetothelargeamountofinternallydisplaced peoplethathavefledtothiscounty.Thiswillcauseashortageofmedical supplies,water,andfood.

SouthernSudanHealthCareOrganization TheybuiltahealthclinicinMaartohelpcareforthepeople.Itwascofoundedby JacobAtem,oneoftheLostBoys.Withtheviolencethathasbeenhappening, theclinichasmostlikelyshutdownforthesafetyoftheworkers.Thiswould makethecountrylackingevenmoreinmedicalnecessities.

UnitedNations Manyofthecompoundsarebeingoccupiedbyciviliansthathavefledtheir homes.Thereisashortageoffoodandwaterinthecompoundswhichwill causetheissueofmalnutrition.Theywillalsohavetodealwithpoliticalaspects ofthesituation,suchastryingtohelpbringtheantigovernmentforcesandthe governmenttoanagreementandtohelplaythefoundationsofrecreatingastable country.

TheLostBoys/TheAlliancefortheLostBoysofSudan Theirreturnafewyearsagowasasignofhopeforthepeopleforthe developmentofthecountry.AfewoftheLostBoyshavereturnedtoAfricaand startedhealthorganizationstohelpthepeople.

AnalysisandPrediction Ipredictthatby2020thepoliticalviolenceinSouthSudanwillbereduced,butnot eliminated.MypredictionisreasonablebecauseIbelievethatsincetheconflicthasgottenso muchattentionsincethebeginning,ifneighboringcountriesstartedtointerfere,thentheUNora morepowerfulcountrywouldbeforcedtostepin.AlthoughthereismuchchaosinSouthSudan currently,manycountriesareholdingofftobecomeinvolvedpartiallyduetoseeingifthe governmentcancontroltherebelforcesandalsotoseehoweverythingwillplayoutbyitself. Othercountriesdonotwanttoinvolvethemselvesiftheydontneedtohowever,iftheviolence continues,thentheremustbesomeactionfromoutsidecountriestokeepthesituationunder control,whetheritbepolitical,military,economic,orevenhumanitarian. OneofthemainsourcesofviolenceisfromtheethnicdifferencesamongtheDinka,the presidentstribe,andtheNuer,therebellingtribetherehasbeenahatredbetweenthetwo groupsformanyyears.TherebellingforcesclaimthatPresidentSalvaKiirhasbecomea

dictatorlikeleader,duetoactionslikeremovingthemajorityofhiscabinetinthesummerof 2013,manyofwhichwereNuer.ThisleftabitterremovedVicePresidentRiekMachar,who startedthisviolentantigovernmentmovement.Asdaysgoby,itisbecomingmoreknownif civiliansarebeingtargetedbyRiekMacharsarmy(HowDidtheViolenceinSouthSudan begin?).Withover1,000peopledead,mostofthembeingcivilians,itisbecomingmoreofa possibilitythattheUnitedStateswillsoonaidtheUNinhelpingthecountry.Thereisahigh potentialthatthisviolencecouldsoonevolveintoaCivilWar.Thisloomingthreatisbecoming moreofapossibilitywitheachdaythattherebellionisleftaloneforthecountrytohandle.Riek Macharalreadyhasahistorywithethnicviolence,whichisknownasthemassacreofBorin 1991,wheremorethan2,000Dinkaswereslaughtered(OldRivalriesReignitedaFuseinSouth Sudan).IthinkthattheUnitedStateswillstepinbeforetheissueescalatestothat.Thereare numerouspeople,whoarerespectedandknowledgeableinthisarea,thatarepressuringthe governmenttoact.TwoofthesepeoplebeingPrincetonLyman,formerU.S.specialenvoyto Sudan,andEricReeves,Sudanresearcherandanalyst.Theybothwrotearticlesforoneofthe OpinionPagesoftheNewYorkTimesonhowtoavoidcivilwarinSouthSudan.Lymans reply,titledAMoreRobustInternationalCommitment,talksabouthowinvolvement,notjustby theUnitedStates,isnecessarytohelpmakeSouthSudanamorestablenation.Healsothinks thattheUnitedNationsshouldplayastrongerrole(PreventingWarinSouthSudan:AMore RobustInternationalCommitment).ReevesbelievesthatitwouldbebetteriftheUnitedStates wouldtakemoreofahumanitarianandpoliticalroleinaidingSouthSudan.HewantstheUnited StatestousenecessarytransportationandsurveillanceaircraftsandtosendaseniorU.S. officialtohelpthetwofactionscometoanagreement(U.S.InvolvementisCritical).Sincethe violencehasbeengettingalotofattentionoverthepastfewweeks,Iwoulddefinitelyhopethat thehelpthatisneededwouldbegranted..

WorksCited Kulish,Nicholas."OldRivalriesReignitedaFuseinSouthSudan."NewYorkTimes.N.p.,n.d. Web. Kulish,Nicholas,andIsma'IlKushkush."Sudan'sLostBoysAreDrawntoWarBackHome."New YorkTimes.N.p.,n.d.Web. Lymen,Princeton."SouthSudanNeedsaMoreRobustInternationalCommitment."NewYork Times.N.p.,n.d.Web. Reeves,Eric."U.S.InvolvementIsCritical."NewYorkTimes.N.p.,n.d.Web. "SouthSudan."TheNewYorkTimes.N.p.,09Jan.2014.Web. "SouthSudan:InAwerial,75,000DisplacedandDesperateontheBanksoftheNile."Doctors WithoutBorders.N.p.,n.d.Web. "SouthernSudanHealthcareOrganization."SouthernSudanHealthcareOrganization.N.p.,n.d. Web.09Jan.2014. "SudanResearch,Analysis,andAdvocacy."SudanResearchAnalysisandAdvocacy.Eric Reeves,n.d.Web. TheSuddInstitute."PolicyBrief:SouthSudanandtheProspectsforPeace."N.p.,4Jan.2014. Web.