China's Post-bin Laden Relationship with Pakistan Teaser: The death of Osama bin Laden helps smooth the

way for the United States withdrawal from f!hanistan" This brin!s new strate!i# #hallen!es for China and Pakistan$ whi#h will be#ome more dependent on ea#h other as a res%lt" S%mmary: spokesman for the Chinese &orei!n 'inistry on 'ay ( addressed Pakistan's role in the death of Osama bin Laden and praised Pakistan's #o%nterterrorism efforts" The #omments are meant to #o%nter #riti#isms of Pakistan's apparent la#k of intelli!en#e sharin! and #ommitment$ and e)emplify the !rowin! #loseness between *ei+in! and ,slamabad" China will depend more on Pakistan to #o%nter militan#y on China's western border and pro-ide a##ess to the ,ndian O#ean$ and Pakistan will look to China for more finan#ial and military s%pport as U"S" assistan#e wanes" The #o%ntries will also depend on ea#h other more to #o%nterbalan#e ,ndia" nalysis: Chinese &orei!n 'inistry spokesman .ian! /% spoke on 'ay ( abo%t Pakistan's role in the United States' killin! of Osama bin Laden" .ian! affirmed Pakistan's effe#ti-eness in #ontrib%tin! to the international fi!ht a!ainst terrorism$ noted that Pakistan has pled!ed not to allow safe ha-ens in its territory and emphasi0ed that China wo%ld #ontin%e to s%pport Pakistan on #o%nterterrorism while also #ooperatin! with the United States and e-en ,ndia" The main messa!e was in keepin! with China's initial response to news of bin Laden's death" Chinese leaders and offi#ial press$ like the Pakistanis http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis12344353(-pakistan-responds-bin-laden-operation, ha-e #alled the death a 6milestone6 in the international effort to fi!ht terrorism$ emphasi0in! that China is also a -i#tim of terrorism and #allin! for !reater international #ooperation in fi!htin! it" Chinese ,nternet dis#%ssions show the p%bli# is less prone to #heerin! for the United States than *ei+in! appears to be$ b%t the Chinese state maintains its offi#ial line both be#a%se it has le!itimate #on#erns abo%t ,slamist militan#y infiltratin! its western borders 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1weekly1#hina:and:end%rin!:%i!h%rs; and be#a%se it ser-es as a broader +%stifi#ation for hea-y domesti# and forei!n se#%rity response to politi#al$ reli!io%s or ethni# militan#y of any sort" *%t China's statements on Pakistan were intended to ref%te the in#reasin! #laims that Pakistan did not f%lly #ommit to the fi!ht and share intelli!en#e" meri#ans ha-e #riti#i0ed Pakistan be#a%se bin Laden's #ompo%nd was lo#ated in bbottobad$ in the heart of Pakistan$ near a prominent military a#ademy and not far from the #apitol ,slamabad$ and he reportedly had li-ed there for se-eral years" The United States' %nilateral strike tar!etin! bin Laden on Pakistani soil symboli0ed the growing la#k of tr%st between <ashin!ton and ,slamabad" *ei+in!'s response to this -iolation of Pakistan's so-erei!nty was not as sharp as %s%al in s%#h sit%ations$ probably be#a%se bin Laden is widely -iewed as an e)#eptional #ase$ b%t it did #ontain the messa!e that China wo%ld s%pport Pakistan in fi!htin! terrorism a##ordin! to the #onditions of its 6own domesti# sit%ation6 and in a##ordan#e with international laws" *ei+in! and ,slamabad are old allies and re#ently #elebrated the =3th anni-ersary of their partnership by$ amon! other thin!s$

renewin! their #ommitment to #ooperate on -ario%s fronts after a strate!i# dialo!%e that ended pril 2>" /et China has benefited from U"S" strikes a!ainst militants in Pakistan in the past -- the U"S" strike a!ainst bd%l ?a@ al-T%rkestani is what enabled Pakistan to #laim it had 6broken the ba#k6 of the Aast T%rkestan ,slami# 'o-ement that threatens China's Bin+ian! re!ion 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis12343353C:pakistan:#hina:and:militant:#onne#tion ;" *ei+in! needs Pakistan to maintain the press%re on and #ontain re!ional militant a#ti-ities" China's role for the past 43 years in f!hanistan and Pakistan has been to s%pport Pakistan's #o%ntermilitan#y a#ti-ities and help +%st eno%!h with international efforts to be seen as #ooperatin! with the United States" China s%pported Pakistan when it withdrew assistan#e to the Taliban in 2334$ helped stabili0e Pakistan's finan#ial sit%ation and relations with ,ndia after the '%mbai atta#ks http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1233D4232:#hina:pakistan:m%mbai:atta#ks:and:bei+in!s:ti!ht :spot threatened to des#end into war$ !a-e Pakistan flood re#o-ery assistan#e 7http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis123433>23:#hina:deploys:heli#opters:flood:ra-a!ed:pakista n ;$ and #ontin%es to #ond%#t #o%nterterrorism trainin! with Pakistan and s%pport it thro%!h trade$ in-estment and infrastr%#t%re #onstr%#tion" China has pro-ided minimal assistan#e to the U"S" and the ,nternational Se#%rity ssistan#e &or#e E,S &F in f!hanistan and Pakistan" *ei+in! represents its s%bstantial monetary in-estments in Pakistan and f!hanistan as s%pportin! #i-ilian r%le and stability$ b%t these tend to follow China's strate!i# interests E#o%nterterrorism$ e#onomi# !rowth$ a##ess to the ,ndian O#ean$ #o%nterbalan#in! ,ndiaF rather than with internationally #oordinated efforts" *ei+in! has not parti#ipated in the fi!htin! or opened its territory for sta!in! atta#ks$ and its #i-ilian and trainin! assistan#e ha-e been limited" The Chinese strate!y is to stay o%t of hea-y fi!htin! or military s%pport roles that #o%ld attra#t retaliation from militant !ro%ps$ while keepin! the United States and its allies en!rossed in fi!htin! those that #o%ld otherwise threaten China" 'oreo-er$ with the United States in#reasin!ly dependent on Pakistan for assistan#e in f!hanistan d%rin! the past de#ade$ <ashin!ton has encountered difficulties in the otherwise burgeoning [LINK http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1233D4332:india:%:s:re!ional:fallo%t:n%#lear:deal ; U"S",ndia strate!i# relationship that *ei+in! fears" *%t bin Laden's death brin!s abo%t the prospe#ts of an meri#an p%bli# that wants a faster withdrawal from f!hanistan 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis12344353(-death-binladen-and-strate!i#-shift-washin!ton ; re!ardless of whether #onditions wo%ld otherwise be deemed satisfa#tory for withdrawal" Obama's timetable #alled for withdrawal to be!in in %!%st anyway$ and China has prepared for the U"S" withdrawal for years$ b%t the bin Laden strike enables the United States to e)it faster" This hei!htens *ei+in!'s #on#erns that a freed-%p U"S" military and forei!n poli#y will soon allow <ashin!ton to more a!!ressi-ely #hallen!e *ei+in! in other areas" The withdrawal will still take a few years the U. . is committed to beginning withdrawal this summer and concluding by !"#$%#&, but reiterates that the timing de'ends on conditions on the ground" G%rin! this time$ the United States will #ontin%e to rely on Pakistan for intelli!en#e assistan#e to try to #reate optimal withdrawal #onditions within the likelya##elerated time frame" <ashin!ton will also #ontin%e to s%pport Pakistan$ whi#h will take on a

far !reater responsibility in mana!in! the aftermath" 'asses of battle-hardened f!han and Pakistani militants will be emboldened" The United States will en#o%ra!e Pakistan to maintain press%re on the militants$ b%t Pakistan's appetite for wa!in! an internally destabili0in! #onfli#t #o%ld !i-e way to a##ommodation and #reate a sphere of infl%en#e in f!hanistan$ and <ashin!ton's a##%m%lated resentments and b%d!etary #on#erns #o%ld res%lt in diminishin! assistan#e" ,f U"S"-Pakistani relations weaken$ Pakistan will need more finan#ial and military help from China$ and China will need !reater ass%ran#es from Pakistan that it #an pre-ent militan#y from r%nnin! wild in its frontier pro-in#es and in f!hanistan and th%s harmin! China's interests" Tho%!h Pakistan has no ill%sions that China #an repla#e the United States$ it has no other #hoi#e for a powerf%l patron and hopes to at least !et ample finan#ial s%pport" China #annot afford to abandon Pakistan$ be#a%se it needs help stabili0in! Pakistan's domesti# and re!ional se#%rity en-ironment and is dri-en by e#onomi# needs to e)pand interests in the ,nd%s Halley and infrastr%#t%re #onne#tions that #an ser-e as a land brid!e to the ,ndian O#ean" Ireater dependen#y between *ei+in! and ,slamabad will brin! !reater tensions into the relationship" The two are old allies$ b%t it is pre#isely at times when Pakistan's border problems be#ome more threatenin! -- s%#h as in 4>>C 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1#hina:#loses:friendship:hi!hway:pakistan ; and 233( 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1tro%ble:brewin!:between:#hina:and:pakistan ; -- or when ,slamabad re@%ires !reater attention to #o%nter-balan#e ,ndia -- s%#h as d%rin! the tense standoff in 4>>> 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1node15(C; -- that Pakistan be#omes more of a liability than an asset to the Chinese" *ei+in! #annot tolerate So%th sian militan#y interferin! with its p%rs%it of -ital interests elsewhere" The Pakistanis will seek to le-era!e their importan#e and draw as m%#h aid and in(estment as they #an$ but militant attacks on )hinese citi*ens and business interests ha(e troubled the relationshi' before [LINK http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1#hina:pakistan:bei+in!s:petrole%m:!ambit ;. 'eanwhile$ *ei+in! wants #ooperation to stay fo#%sed on #o%nter-terrorism$ border #ontrol$ na(al and military ties, trade$ in-estment$ infrastructure de(elo'ment +such as railway and hydro'ower construction, and ener!y transit Es%#h as the proposed ,ran-Pakistan-China nat%ral !as pipeline 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1#hina:pakistan:dri-ers:behind:possible:nat%ral:!as:pipeline ;F" ,t does not want Pakistan to entan!le it in #onfli#t with ,ndia" Gespite the likelihood of risin! tensions as inter-dependen#e !rows$ Pakistan and China ha-e no #hoi#e b%t to mana!e and s%stain their relationship" 8either #an afford to abandon the other" Pakistan still -iews ,ndia as its primary strate!i# threat$ and China still -iews Pakistan as an essential foothold in the re!ion" China will need Pakistan to be#ome a maritime partner http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1233>3(2J:part:2:#hina:s:plan:bl%e:water:fleet and to maintain press%re on ,ndia$ espe#ially with Chinese e)pe#tations that ,ndia is be#omin! a more problemati# nei!hbor d%e to its !rowin! ties with the United States$ .apan and %stralia and in-ol-ement in Tibet http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis123443(44-#hina-politi#al-memo-mar#h44-2344 and So%theast sia http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis12344324D-india-looks-eastmalaysia-and-+apan" ppeasin! China Elike appeasin! the United StatesF will re@%ire Pakistan to display efforts to #ombat militant trainin! #amps$ finan#ial a#ti-ities and mo-ements that China

-iews as a threat$ while maintainin! militant pro)ies for %se a!ainst ,ndia E*ei+in! will ha-e to tr%st that these pro)ies do not pose a threat to ChinaF" China does not want to fi!ht re!ional ins%r!en#ies or attra#t hostile attention$ so ,slamabad will ha-e the ad-anta!e when it #omes to mana!in! militant networks to its own benefit" O-erall$ the U"S" inter-ention in the re!ion benefited China be#a%se it p%lled militants away from potentially tar!etin! China to fi!ht the ,S &" It also made the United States the o%tside power keepin! Pakistan from #ollapse and mana!in! the balan#e of power between ,ndia and Pakistan" s the U"S" presen#e diminishes Etho%!h it will not disappearF$ China will fa#e the prospe#t of a power -a#%%m on its resti-e western border that a s%rpl%s of militant for#es are willin! and able to fill" Sim%ltaneo%sly China will ha-e to be#ome more a#ti-e in influencing the Pakistani-,ndian balan#e of power in order to increase its economic 'resence and Indian -cean access witho%t i!nitin! a #onfli#t http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis123433>3>:possible:#hinese:military:b%ild%p:indian:s%b#onti nent that ba#kfires on *ei+in!" nd most threatenin! of all for China$ +%st as its problems in So%th sia sta#k %p$ the United States is seen as in#reasin!ly likely to %se the #apability and attention span it !ains from the withdrawal to try to pre-ent China's rise from disr%ptin! U"S" dominan#e in the sia Pa#ifi# 7L,89 http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis1233>324>:indonesia:%:s:mo-e:toward:re:en!a!ement;" fter the .ihadist war passes$ the likeliest !reat #hallen!e for the United States will be mana!in! China's rise" *in Laden's death does not affe#t the ta#ti#al or military sit%ation in f!hanistan or Pakistan http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis123443532-ta#ti#al-irrele-an#e-osama-bin-ladens-death" *%t it pro-ides the meri#an p%bli# with the psy#holo!i#al #los%re that hel's to seal off the 23342344 sa!a and hasten its remo-al from a lon! and in#reasin!ly %npop%lar war" /he United tates0 allies in 1fghanistan will also 'ress for this .ustification for hurrying the e2it, and some, like 1ustralia [LINK http:11www"stratfor"#om1analysis123443J2>-post-mortema%stralian-prime-ministers-asia-to%r ;, will encourage the U. . to refocus its strategic 'riorities on )hina. The res%lt lea-es China more hea-ily b%rdened in mana!in! its interests in So%th sia and more an)io%s in relation to the release of ener!ies that <ashin!ton #an brin! to bear elsewhere as it deems ne#essary"