Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective (Paris: OECD, 2001), Chapter 1, "Introduction and u!!

ar"," pp# 1$%2&

Introduction and Summary 'he Contours o( )or*d De+e*op!ent Over the past millennium, world population rose 22-fold. Per capita income increased 13fold, world G P nearly 3!!-fold. "his contrasts sharply with the precedin# millennium, when world population #rew $y only a si%th, and there was no advance in per capita income. &rom the year 1!!! to 1'2! the advance in per capita income was a slow crawl - the world avera#e rose a$out (! per cent. )ost of the #rowth went to accommodate a fourfo*d increase in population. Since 1'2!, world development has $een much more dynamic. Per capita income rose more than ei#htfold, population more than fivefold. Per capita income #rowth is not the only indicator of welfare. Over the lon# run, there has $een a dramatic increase in life e%pectation. In the year 1!!!, the avera#e infant could e%pect to live a$out 2+ years. , third would die in the first year of life, hun#er and epidemic disease would rava#e the survivors. "here was an almost impercepti$le rise up to 1'2!, mainly in -estern .urope. )ost of the improvement has occurred since then. /ow the avera#e infant can e%pect to survive 00 years. "he #rowth process was uneven in space as well as time. "he rise in life e%pectation and income has $een most rapid in -estern .urope, /orth ,merica, ,ustralasia and 1apan. 2y 1'2!, this #roup had for#ed ahead to an income level twice that in the rest of the world. 2y 133', the #ap was 451. 2etween the 6nited States 7the present world leader8 and ,frica 7the poorest re#ion8 the #ap is now 2!51. "his #ap is still widenin#. iver#ence is dominant $ut not ine%ora$le. In the past half century, resur#ent ,sian countries have demonstrated that an important de#ree of catch-up is feasi$le. /evertheless world economic #rowth has slowed su$stantially since 1343, and the ,sian advance has $een offset $y sta#nation or retro#ression elsewhere. 'he Purpose o( this tud" "he purpose of this $oo9 is to :uantify these lon# term chan#es in world income and population in a comprehensive way; identify the forces which e%plain the success of the rich countries; e%plore the o$stacles which hindered advance in re#ions which la##ed $ehind; scrutinise the interaction $etween the rich countries and the rest to assess the de#ree to which their $ac9wardness may have $een due to -estern policy. "here is nothin# new a$out lon#-term surveys of economic performance. ,dam Smith had a very $road perspective in his pioneerin# wor9 in 1 440. Others have had an e:ually am$itious vision. "here has $een spectacular pro#ress in recent years in historical demo#raphy. -hat is new in this study is systematic :uantification of comparative economic performance. In the past, :uantitative research in economic history has $een heavily concentrated on the nineteenth and twentieth centuries when #rowth was fastest. "o #o $ac9 earlier involves use
1

of wea9er evidence, #reater reliance on clues and con<ecture. /evertheless it is a meanin#ful, useful and necessary e%ercise $ecause differences in the pace and pattern of chan#e in ma<or parts of the world economy have deep roots in the past. =uantification clarifies issues which :ualitative analysis leaves fu>>y. It is more readily contesta$le and li9ely to $e contested. It sharpens scholarly discussion, spar9s off rival hypotheses, and contri$utes to the dynamics of the research process. It can only do this if the :uantitative evidence and the nature of pro%y procedures is descri$ed transparently so that the dissentin# reader can au#ment or re<ect parts of the evidence or introduce alternative hypotheses. "he analysis of ?hapters 1, 2 and 3 is underpinned $y si% appendices which are intended to supply the necessary de#ree of transparency. E,p*aining Econo!ic Per(or!ance ,dvances in population and income over the past millennium have $een sustained $y three interactive processes5 a8 ?on:uest or settlement of relatively empty areas which had fertile land, new $iolo#ical resources, or a potential to accommodate transfers of population, crops and livestoc9; $8 international trade and capital movements; c8 technolo#ical and institutional innovation. a) Con-uest and ett*e!ent One important instance of this process was ?hinese settlement of the relatively empty and swampy lands south of the @an#tse, and introduction of new :uic9-ripenin# strains of rice from Aietnam suita$le for multi-croppin#. "his process occurred $etween the ei#hth and thirteenth centuries, durin# which population #rowth accelerated, per capita income rose $y a third, and the distri$ution of population and economic activity were transformed. In the ei#hth century only a :uarter of the ?hinese population lived south of the @an#tse; in the thirteenth, more than three-:uarters. "he new technolo#y involved hi#her la$our inputs, so productivity rose less than per capita income. ,n even more dramatic case was the .uropean encounter with the ,mericas. "he e%istence of this continent was un9nown to .uropeans $efore the 1+32 voya#e of ?olum$us. "he discovery opened up an enormous area, for the most part thinly populated. )e%ico and Peru were the most advanced and densely settled, $ut they were easily con:uered and three :uarters of their population was wiped out $y diseases which the .uropeans inadvertently introduced. "he new continent offered crops un9nown elsewhere--maize, potatoes, sweet potatoes, manioc, chilis, tomatoes, groundnuts, pineapples, cocoa and tobacco. "hese were introduced in .urope, ,frica and ,sia, and enhanced their production potential and capacity to sustain population #rowth. "here was a reciprocal transfer to the ,mericas, which #reatly au#mented its potential. "he new crops were wheat, rice, su#ar cane, vines, salad #reens, olives, $ananas and coffee. "he new animals for food were cattle, pi#s, chic9ens, sheep and #oats, as well as horses, o%en, asses and don9eys for transport. "he ma<or initial attractions of the ,mericas were the rich silver resources of )e%ico and Peru, and development of plantation a#riculture with imports of slave la$our from ,frica.
2

"he neo-.uropean economies of /orth ,merica and the southern cone of Batin ,merica developed later. "he population of the ,mericas did not recover its 1(!! level until the first half of the ei#hteenth century "he full potential of the ,mericas $e#an to $e realised in the nineteenth century with massive .uropean immi#ration and the western movement of the production frontier made possi$le $y railways. "he present variation in economic performance within the ,mericas--$etween the 6nited States, Batin ,merica and the ?ari$$ean--is partly due to variations in resource endowment, $ut there are institutional and societal echoes from the past. In /orth ,merica and 2ra>il the relatively small indi#enous population was mar#inalised or e%terminated, in former Spanish colonies the indi#enous population remained as an underclass, and in all the areas where slavery was important their descendants have also remained an underprivile#ed #roup. =uite apart from this, there were important differences in the colonial period $etween I$erian institutions and those of /orth ,merica. "hese continued to have an impact on su$se:uent #rowth performance. .) Internationa* 'rade and Capita* Mo+e!ents International trade was important in the economic ascension of -estern .urope, and much less si#nificant in the history of ,sia or ,frica. Aenice played a 9ey role from 1!!! to 1(!! in openin# up trade within .urope 7to &landers, &rance, Germany and the 2al9ans8 and in the )editerranean. It opened trade in ?hinese products via the caravan routes to ports in the 2lac9 Sea. It traded in Indian and other ,sian products via Syria and ,le%andria. "rade was important in $rin#in# hi#h value spices and sil9s to .urope, $ut it also helped the transfer of technolo#y from ,sia, .#ypt and 2y>antium 7sil9 and cotton te%tile production, #lass$lowin#, cultivation of rice in Italy, cane su#ar production and processin# in the Aenetian colonies of ?rete and ?yprus8. "o a si#nificant de#ree the maritime e%pansion of Aenice depended on improved techni:ues of ship$uildin# in its ,rsenal, use of the compass and other improvements in navi#ation. Institutional innovations--the development of $an9in#, accountancy forei#n e%chan#e and credit mar9ets, creation of a solvent system of pu$lic finance, creation of a competent diplomatic service were all instrumental in esta$lishin# Aenice as the lead economy of that epoch. Aenice played an important part in fosterin# the intellectual development of -estern .urope. It created manuscript li$raries and pioneered in $oo9 pu$lishin#. Its #lass industry was the first to ma9e spectacles on a lar#e scale. It played a leadin# role in the Cenaissance $y ma9in# Gree9 wor9s 9nown in the -est. "he 6niversity of Padua was a ma<or centre of .uropean learnin#, with Galileo as one of its distin#uished professors. Aenetian contacts with ,sia were eventually $loc9ed $y the fall of 2y>antium, the rise of the Ottoman .mpire, the collapse of the crusader states in the Bevant and the )amelu9e re#ime in .#ypt. In the second half of the fifteenth century, a much more am$itious interaction $etween .urope and the rest of the world had started in Portu#al. Portu#al played the main role in openin# up .uropean trade, navi#ation and settlement in the ,tlantic islands, in developin# trade routes around ,frica, into the Indian Ocean, to ?hina and 1apan. It $ecame the ma<or shipper of spices to .urope for the whole of the si%teenth century, usurpin# this role from Aenice. Its navi#ators discovered 2ra>il. Its diplomacy was astute enou#h to persuade Spain to endorse its territorial claim there, and to let it have a monopoly of trade with the )oluccan spice islands and Indonesia. ,lthou#h Spain had a
3

$i##er empire, its only si#nificant $ase outside the ,mericas was the Philippines. Its two most famous navi#ators were ?olum$us who was a Genoese with Portu#uese trainin#, and )a#ellan who was Portu#uese. Portu#al had ma<or advanta#es in developin# its overseas commerce and empire. "here was a clear strate#ic $enefit in $ein# located on the South ,tlantic coast of .urope near to the e%it of the )editerranean. eep-sea fishermen provided an important part of the Portu#uese food supply and developed an unrivalled 9nowled#e of ,tlantic winds, weather and tides. "he value of these s9ills was #reatly enhanced $y crown sponsorship of ,tlantic e%ploration, research on navi#ation, trainin# of pilots, and documentation of maritime e%perience in the form of route maps with compass $earin#s 7rutters8 and carto#raphy. Portu#uese ship$uilders in Bis$on and Oporto adapted the desi#n of their ships in the li#ht of increasin# 9nowled#e of ,tlantic sailin# conditions. "he $i##est chan#es were in ri##in#. ,t first they concentrated on lateen sails, then added a mi% of s:uare sails and lateen for deeper penetration into the South ,tlantic, with further chan#es for the much lon#er route round the ?ape. ,nother element in Portu#uese success was the a$ility to a$sor$ Dnew ?hristiansD - 1ewish merchants and scholars who had played a si#nificant role in I$eria durin# )uslim rule. "hey were driven out of Spain, $ut many too9 refu#e and increased the si>e of the community in Portu#al. "hey were re:uired to under#o proforma conversion and were su$<ect to a de#ree of persecution, $ut they provided important s9ills in developin# Portu#uese $usiness interests in ,frica, 2ra>il and ,sia, in scientific development, as intermediaries in trade with the )uslim world and in attractin# Genoese and ?atalan capital to Portu#uese $usiness ventures. Portu#al was responsi$le for transferrin# cane su#ar production and processin# technolo#y into the ,tlantic islands of )adeira and SEo "ome, and later to 2ra>il. It inau#urated the slave trade to provide a la$our force for the industry in the /ew -orld. It carried a$out half of the slaves who were shipped to the ,mericas from ,frica $etween 1 (!! and 1'4!. In the fifteenth century su#ar was a very rare and e%pensive commodity in .urope; $y the end of the ei#hteenth century it was an item of popular consumption, havin# #rown much more in volume than trade in any other tropical product. ,t the time Portu#al was pioneerin# these worldwide lin9a#es, trade relations $etween different parts of northern .urope were intensified $y the phenomenal development of utch maritime activity. In 1(4!, the carryin# capacity of utch merchant shippin# was a$out the same as the com$ined fleets of .n#land, &rance and Germany. Per head of population it was 2( times as $i# as in these three northern countries. evelopment of shippin# and ship$uildin#, the transformation of utch a#riculture into horticulture, the creation of a lar#e canal networ9, use of power derived from windmills and peat made the /etherlands the most dynamic .uropean economy from 1+!! to the middle of the seventeenth century. It pushed international specialisation much further than any other country. Shippin# and commercial services provided a lar#e part of its income. It imported cereals and live cattle, e%ported herrin# and dairy products. In 14!! only +! per cent of the la$our force were in a#riculture. 6ntil 1('! the /etherlands was part of a $i##er political entity. It included &landers and 2ra$ant - the most prosperous industrial area in .urope and a centre for $an9in#, finance and international commerce which was a northern counterpart to Aenice. "he whole area was under 2ur#undian control until the late fifteenth century, then fell into the hands of the Fa$s$ur#s who were also rulers of Spain. "he utch revolted a#ainst their predatory empire
4

$ecause of its e%cessive fiscal demands, political and reli#ious repression. "hey created a modern nation state, which protected property ri#hts of merchants and entrepreneurs, promoted secular education and practised reli#ious tolerance. )ost of the financial and entrepreneurial elite and many of the most s9illed artisans of &landers and 2ra$ant emi#rated to the new repu$lic. "he utch $loc9aded the river Scheldt and the port of ,ntwerp for more than 2!! years, and destroyed the I$erian monopoly of trade with ,frica, ,sia and the ,mericas. utch e%perience from 1('! to the end of the /apoleonic wars provides a dramatic demonstration of the way in which -estern .urope interacted with the world economy in that epoch. "he initial economic success of the utch Cepu$lic, and its maritime and commercial supremacy, depended to a su$stantial e%tent on success in war and $e##ar-your-nei#h$our commercial policy in competition with Portu#al and Spain. 2y the ei#hteenth century it had lost this supremacy, $ecause two new rivals, .n#land and &rance, had #reatly increased their maritime stren#th, and used the same techni:ues to push the utch out of the mar9ets they sou#ht to dominate. "he volume of utch forei#n trade dropped 2! per cent from 1 42! to 1'2!. urin# this period, 6G e%ports rose more than sevenfold in volume, and &rench $y two and three:uarters. &rom 1 4!! to 1'2!, utch per capita income fell $y a si%th, 2ritish rose $y half and &rench $y a :uarter. 2ritain had faster #rowth in per capita income from the 1 0'!s to 1'2! than any other .uropean country. "his was due to improvement of its $an9in#, financial and fiscal institutions and a#riculture on lines which the utch had pioneered, and to a sur#e in industrial productivity at the end of the period. It also derived #reat $enefits from its rise to commercial he#emony $y adroit use of a $e##ar- your-nei#h$our strate#y. Si%ty years of armed conflict and the restrictive /avi#ation ,cts pushed competitors out of the mar9ets it sou#ht to monopolise. It too9 over the leadin# role in shippin# slaves from ,frica to the ?ari$$ean and created an overseas empire with a population of a$out 1!! million $y 1'2!. Other .uropean powers were losers in the 2ritish stru##le for supremacy. 2y the end of the /apoleonic wars, the utch had lost all their ,sian territories e%cept Indonesia. "he &rench were reduced to a to9en colonial presence in ,sia, and lost their ma<or asset in the ?ari$$ean. Shortly after the war, 2ra>il esta$lished its independence from Portu#al. Spain lost its hu#e colonial empire in Batin ,merica, retainin# only ?u$a, Puerto Cico and the Philippines. 2ritain too9 over what the &rench and utch had lost in ,sia and ,frica, e%tended its control over India, and esta$lished a privile#ed commercial presence in Batin ,merica. Other losers included the former rulers of India, whose power and income were usurped in su$stantial part $y the servants of the 2ritish .ast India ?ompany. 6nder their rule, from 14(4 to 1'(4, Indian per capita income fell, $ut 2ritish #ains were su$stantial. 2etween 1'2! and 1313, 2ritish per capita income #rew faster than at any time in the past three times as fast as in 1 4!!-1'2!. "he $asic reason for improved performance was the acceleration of technical pro#ress, accompanied $y rapid #rowth of the physical capital stoc9 and improvement in the education and s9ills of the la$our force, $ut chan#es in commercial
5

policy also made a su$stantial contri$ution. In 1'+0 protective duties on a#ricultural imports were removed and in 1'+3 the /avi#ation ,cts were terminated. 2y 1'0!, all trade and tariff restrictions had $een removed unilaterally. In 1'0! there were reciprocal treaties for freer trade with &rance and other .uropean countries. "hese had most-favoured nation clauses which meant that $ilateral li$eralisation applied e:ually to all countries. &ree trade was imposed in India and other 2ritish colonies, and the same was true in 2ritainHs informal empire. ?hina, Persia, "hailand and the Ottoman .mpire were not colonies, $ut were o$li#ed to maintain low tariffs $y treaties which reduced their soverei#nty in commercial matters, and #ranted e%traterritorial ri#hts to forei#ners. "his re#ime of free trade imperialism favoured 2ritish e%ports, $ut was less dama#in# to the interests of the colonies than in the ei#hteenth century, when 1amaica could only trade with 2ritain and its colonies, Guadeloupe only with &rance. "he 2ritish policy of free trade and its willin#ness to import a lar#e part of its food had positive effects on the world economy. "hey reinforced and diffused the impact of technical pro#ress. "he favoura$le impact was $i##est in /orth ,merica, the southern cone of Batin ,merica and ,ustralasia which had rich natural resources and received a su$stantial inflow of capital, $ut there was also some positive effect in India which was the $i##est and poorest part of the .mpire. Innovations in communications played a ma<or part in lin9in# national capital mar9ets and facilitatin# international capital movements. "he 6nited Gin#dom already had an important role in international finance, than9s to the soundness of its pu$lic credit and monetary system, the si>e of its capital mar9et and pu$lic de$t, and the maintenance of a #old standard. "he e%istence of the empire created a system of property ri#hts which appeared to $e as securely protected as those availa$le to investors in 2ritish securities. It was a wealthy country operatin# close to the frontiers of technolo#y, so its rentiers were attracted to forei#n investment even when the e%tra mar#in of profit was small. &rom the 1'4!s onward, there was a massive outflow of 2ritish capital for overseas investment. "he 6nited Gin#dom directed half its savin#s a$road. &rench, German and utch investment was also su$stantial. "he old li$eral order was shattered $y two world wars and the collapse of capital flows, mi#ration and trade in the $e##ar-your-nei#h$our years of the 133!s. 2etween 1313 and 13(!, the world economy #rew much more slowly than in 1'4!-1313, world trade #rew much less than world income, and the de#ree of ine:uality $etween re#ions increased su$stantially, the set$ac9 $ein# $i##est in ,sia. 2y 13(! colonialism was in an advanced state of disinte#ration. -ith one or two e%ceptions, the e%it from empire was more or less complete $y the 1 30!s. "he 2ritish imperial order was finished, as were those of 2el#ium, &rance, the /etherlands and 1apan. In the -est, the 6nited States had emer#ed as the he#emonial power competin# with the Soviet $loc for levera#e in the newly independent countries of ,sia and ,frica. "he world economy #rew very much faster from 13(! to 1343 than it had ever done $efore. It was a #olden a#e of unparalleled prosperity. -orld per capita G P rose nearly 3 per cent a year 7a rate which implies a dou$lin# every 2( years8. -orld G P rose $y nearly ( per cent a year and world trade $y nearly ' per cent a year. "his dynamism affected all re#ions. "he
6

acceleration was #reatest in .urope and ,sia. "here was also a de#ree of conver#ence $etween re#ions, thou#h a #ood part of this was a narrowin# of the #ap $etween the 6nited States and the other advanced capitalist countries 7-estern .urope and 1apan8. "here were several reasons for unusually favoura$le performance in the #olden a#e. In the first place, the advanced capitalist countries created a new 9ind of li$eral international order with e%plicit and rational codes of $ehaviour, and institutions for co-operation 7O..?, O.? , I)&, -orld 2an9 and the G,""8 which had not e%isted $efore. "here was a very serious .ast--est split from 13+' onwards, $ut the split reinforced the harmony of interest $etween capitalist economies, so the $e##ar- your-nei#h$our $ehaviour of pre-war years did not recur. "he 6nited States provided a su$stantial flow of aid for .urope when it was most needed, fosterin# procedures for articulate co-operation and li$eral tradin# policies. 6ntil the 134!s it also provided the world with a stron# anchor for international monetary sta$ility. /orth-South relations were transformed from the colonial tutela#e of pre-war years to a situation where more emphasis was placed on action to stimulate development. "he hu#e e%pansion of trade in the advanced capitalist economies transmitted a dynamic influence throu#hout the world economy. "he second new element of stren#th was the character of domestic policies which were selfconsciously devoted to promotion of hi#h levels of demand and employment in the advanced countries. Growth was not only faster than ever $efore, $ut the $usiness cycle virtually disappeared. Investment rose to unprecedented levels and e%pectations $ecame euphoric. 6ntil the 134!s, there was also much milder inflationary pressure than could have $een e%pected in conditions of secular $oom. "he third element in this virtuous circle situation was the potential for #rowth on the supply side. "hrou#hout .urope and ,sia there was still su$stantial scope for DnormalD elements of DrecoveryD from the years of depression and war. ,dditionally and more importantly, was the continued acceleration of technical pro#ress in the lead country. &urthermore, the 6nited States played a diffusionist role in the #olden a#e in sharp contrast to its role in the interwar years. Since the #olden a#e, the world picture has chan#ed a #reat deal. Per capita #rowth has $een less than half as fast. "here has $een much #reater diver#ence in the performance of different re#ions. In -estern .urope and 1apan, per capita #rowth fell well $elow that in the #olden a#e, $ut was apprecia$ly $etter than in 1'4!-1313. In the countries of Dresur#ent ,siaD, which have half the worldHs population, the success was :uite e%traordinary. "heir per capita #rowth was faster after 1343 than in the #olden a#e, and more than ten times as fast as in the old li$eral order. If the world consisted only of these two #roups, the pattern of world development could $e interpreted as a clear demonstration of the possi$ilities for conver#ence. 2y success in mo$ilisin# and allocatin# resources efficiently and improvin# their human and physical capital to assimilate and adapt appropriate technolo#y, the countries of resur#ent ,sia achieved si#nificant catch-up on the advanced capitalist #roup. Fowever, there is another #roup 710' countries, with a$out a third of the worldHs population8 where the deterioration in performance since the #olden a#e has $een alarmin#. In ,frica there has $een no advance in per capita income in the past :uarter century. In .astern .urope and the former 6SSC, avera#e per capita income in 133' was a$out three:uarters of that in
7

1343. In Batin ,merica and in many ,sian countries, income #ains have $een a fraction of what they were in the #olden a#e. "he economies of this hetero#eneous #roup of Dfalterin# economiesD have $een fallin# $ehind instead of catchin# up. )ost of them have not $een a$le to adapt successfully to an international economic order which has chan#ed considera$ly from that in the #olden a#e. "he way in which postwar order now operates is analysed in detail in ?hapter 3. "he structure of the analysis is $ased on "a$le 3-( which summarises the comparative performance of the ma<or re#ions. c) 'echno*ogica* and Institutiona* Inno+ation &rom the year 1!!! to 1'2!, advances in technolo#y were much slower than they have $een since, $ut they were nevertheless a si#nificant component of the #rowth process. -ithout improvements in a#riculture, the increase in world population could not have $een sustained. -ithout improvements in maritime technolo#y and commercial institutions the openin# up of the world economy could not have $een achieved. "echnical advance in important areas was dependent on fundamental improvements in scientific method, e%perimental testin#, systematic accumulation and pu$lication of new 9nowled#e. "he lon# centuries of effort provided intellectual and institutional foundations for the much more rapid advances achieved in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. "his process of cumulative advance is clearly demonstrated in the history of maritime technolo#y and navi#ation. In the year 1!!!, .uropean ships and navi#ation were no $etter than in the Coman .mpire. "he advance started when Aenice created its pu$lic shipyard, the ,rsenal, in 11!+ to $uild its oared #alleys and improve ship desi#n. "he introduction of the compass and the sand#lass for measurin# time at sea helped to dou$le the productivity of ships. "hey could navi#ate in $ad weather and ma9e two return <ourneys a year from Aenice to ,le%andria instead of one. "he Portu#uese preparations for the passa#e to India were a ma<or research pro<ect involvin# years of e%perimentation in shippin# technolo#y, improvement of navi#ational instruments and charts, applied astronomy, developin# 9nowled#e of winds, currents and alternative routes. "he utch created a new type of factory ship for processin# the herrin# catch at sea. "hey developed mass production of a cheap #eneral purpose car#o vessel 7the fluyt8. "he 2ritish #overnment financed and encoura#ed research into astronomy, terrestrial ma#netism, production of the first relia$le maritime chronometer and nautical almanacs. "hey also demonstrated the efficacy of sauer9raut and citrus <uice in preventin# scurvy. 2y the end of the ei#hteenth century ships could carry ten times the car#o of a fourteenth century Aenetian #alley, with a much smaller crew. "he safety of lon# distance sea travel was also #reatly improved. In their first voya#es to ,sia, da Gama and ?a$ral lost half their crew and more than half of their ships. )a#ellan lost more than 3! per cent of his crew on the first circumnavi#ation of the #lo$e. ?oo9Hs successful circumnavi#ation 2+! years later appro%imated modern standards of maritime safety. 6ntil the fifteenth century .uropean pro#ress in many fields was dependent on transfers of technolo#y from ,sia or the ,ra$ world. In 1+!(-33, ?hinese superiority in shippin# technolo#y was evident in seven ma<or e%peditions to the D-estern OceansD 7see "a$le 2-118. ?hinese ships were much $i##er than those of the Portu#uese, more seaworthy and more comforta$le, with waterti#ht compartments, many more ca$ins, and a capacity to navi#ate
8

over lar#e distances to ,frica. "hereafter, ?hina turned its $ac9 on the world economy, and its maritime technolo#y decayed. 2y the end of the seventeenth century, the technolo#ical leadership of .urope in shippin# and armaments was apparent. "here had also $een important institutional advances. 2an9in#, credit, forei#n e%chan#e mar9ets, financial and fiscal mana#ement, accountancy insurance and corporate #overnance 7$y the utch and 2ritish .ast India ?ompanies8 were more sophisticated than those in ,sia, and were essential components of .uropean success in openin# up the world economy. -ithin -estern .urope the diffusion of technolo#y was fairly rapid, and the technolo#ical distance $etween nations was not particularly wide in spite of the fre:uency of wars. Bin9s were fostered $y the #rowth of humanist scholarship, the creation of universities and the invention of printin#. In the si%teenth and seventeenth centuries, there was a revolutionary chan#e in the :uality of western science with close interaction of savants and scientists such as ?opernicus, .rasmus, 2acon, Galileo, Fo$$es, escartes, Petty, Bei$nit>, Fuy#hens, Falley and /ewton. )any of them were in close contact with collea#ues in other countries, or spent years a$road. "his type of co-operation was institutionalised $y the creation of scientific academies which encoura#ed discussion and research, and pu$lished their proceedin#s. )uch of this wor9 had practical relevance, and many of the leadin# fi#ures were concerned with matters of pu$lic policy. iffusion of these advances outside .urope was relatively limited. "here were 1esuit scholars in Pe9in# for nearly two centuries, some of them li9e Cicci, Schall and Aer$iest had intimate contact with rulin# circles, $ut there was little curiosity amon#st the ?hinese elite a$out intellectual and scientific development in the -est. 1apanese e%posure to western 9nowled#e was more limited than ?hinese, $ut its impact went deeper. "he Portu#uese and the 1esuits were in 1apan for nearly a century, and there was considera$le interest in .uropean ships, maps, navi#ation and #uns. ,fter the Portu#uese were e%pelled the only contact 1apan had with western learnin# was with those utch .ast India ?ompany officials who were scientists 7Gaempfer, "hun$er# and von Sie$old8. ,lthou#h these contacts were limited, they helped destroy 1apanese respect for Dthin#s ?hineseD and accentuate their curiosity a$out Dthin#s -esternD 7see ,ppendi% 28. "he .ast India ?ompany officers who controlled India from 14(4 to 1'(4 had a stron# strea9 of 2enthamite radicalism, and a stron# ur#e to modify Indian le#al and property institutions. ,fter the Indian )utiny of 1'(4 and esta$lishment of direct imperial control, these radical westernisin# am$itions were dropped. In Indonesia, there were somewhat similar am$itions in the period of 2ritish administration durin# the /apoleonic wars, $ut -esternisation was a$andoned after the ipono#oro revolt in the 1'3!s. "he only effective overseas transmission of .uropean technolo#y and science $y the end of the ei#hteenth century was to the 13 2ritish colonies in /orth ,merica. In 1440 they had nine universities for 2.( million people and an intellectual elite 7e.#. 2en<amin &ran9lin and "homas 1efferson8 fully familiar with the activities of their .uropean contemporaries. In the Spanish colonies, 2ra>il and the ?ari$$ean there were more than 14 million people, $ut only two universities 7in )e%ico ?ity and Guadala<ara8 which concentrated on theolo#y and law.
9

"he reasons for the accelerated #rowth of technical pro#ress since 1'2! are analysed in considera$le detail in my earlier study, Monitoring the World Economy 7133(8, particularly in ?hapter 2 and pp. 41-3, and are not treated at any len#th in this volume. Fowever, it is clear that technical pro#ress has slowed down. It was a #ood deal faster from 1313 to 1343 than it has $een since. "he slowdown in the past :uarter century is one of the reasons for the deceleration of world economic #rowth. D/ew economyD pundits find the notion of deceleratin# technical pro#ress unaccepta$le and cite anecdotal or microeconomic evidence to ar#ue otherwise. Fowever, the impact of their technolo#ical revolution has not $een apparent in the macroeconomic statistics until very recently, and I do not share their euphoric e%pectations. /oseph E# tig*it0 (Co*u!.ia 1ni+ersit", 1 A) ?opyri#ht5 Pro<ect Syndicate, 2!!' "he world economy has had several #ood years. Glo$al #rowth has $een stron#, and the divide $etween the developin# and developed world has narrowed, with India and ?hina leadin# the way, e%periencin# G P #rowth of 11.1I and 3.4I in 2!!0 and 11.(I and '.3I in 2!!4, respectively. .ven ,frica has $een doin# well, with #rowth in e%cess of (I in 2!!0 and 2!!4. 2ut the #ood times may $e endin#. "here have $een worries for years a$out the #lo$al im$alances caused $y ,mericaJs hu#e overseas $orrowin#. ,merica, in turn, said that the world should $e than9ful5 $y livin# $eyond its means, it helped 9eep the #lo$al economy #oin#, especially #iven hi#h savin#s rates in ,sia, which accumulated hundreds of $illions of dollars in reserves. 2ut it was always reco#ni>ed that ,mericaJs #rowth under President Geor#e -. 2ush was not sustaina$le. /ow the day of rec9onin# looms. ,mericaJs ill-conceived war in Ira: helped fuel a :uadruplin# of oil prices since 2!!3. In the 134!Js, oil shoc9s led to inflation in some countries, and to recession elsewhere, as #overnments raised interest rates to com$at risin# prices. ,nd some economies faced the worst of $oth worlds5 sta#flation. 6ntil now, three critical factors helped the world weather soarin# oil prices. &irst, ?hina, with its enormous productivity increases K $ased on restin# on hi#h levels of investment, includin# investments in education and technolo#y K e%ported its deflation. Second, the 6nited States too9 advanta#e of this $y lowerin# interest rates to unprecedented levels, inducin# a housin# $u$$le, with mort#a#es availa$le to anyone not on a life-support system. &inally, wor9ers all over the world too9 it on the chin, acceptin# lower real wa#es and a smaller share of G P. "hat #ame is up. ?hina is now facin# inflationary pressures. -hatJs more, if the 6S convinces ?hina to let its currency appreciate, the cost /eoli$erals have insisted that the new technolo#ies of communications and transportation ma9e it $oth inevita$le and desira$le that the world economy $e ti#htly inte#rated throu#h e%panded trade and capital flows and the acceptance of the ,n#lo-,merican model of free mar9et capitalism. , wide variety of movements and theorists around the world have attac9ed this vision of #lo$ali>ation from different political perspectivesKsome resistin# on the $asis of ethnic, reli#ious, national, or re#ional identities, and others upholdin# alternative --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------10

2eprinted from the $oo9 L cience, 'echno*og" and tate in G. ). @usuf 7.d8 Unipolar World The Muslim !tates, Pa9istan &orum, Islama$ad, Pa9istan, /ov. 2!!+. Dr# Anis A*a! cience, 'echno*og" and tate Introduction Science is all a$out humanityJs attempt to understand the wor9in# of the world in all its details. "echnolo#y, on the other hand, see9s to find practical ways of turnin# scientific 9nowled#e into utilitarian processes and devices1. Science was #enerally considered to $e pursuit of truth, an intellectual e%ercise, and a preserve of #reat minds li9e Pytha#oras, ,ristotle, ,rya$hata, ?opernicus, Galileo, /ewton and the li9es of them. "he state did not concern itself with support and development of science and technolo#y. Fowever, 9in#s, princes sometimes li9ed to support famous scholars, philosophers, artists in attendance more as decorations than anythin# else. "here are e%ceptions $ut #enerally the a$ove o$servation will hold its #round. "ill very recently, science had very little direct effect on the way we lived, produced, reproduced, entertained, communicated and traveled. "he pursuit of science was a preserve of #entlemen of leisure. It has $een ar#ued that science had little direct input in the industrial revolution of140!s2. Fowever $y the 1'(!s science had $ecome essential for production. &rom then onwards technolo#y has $ecome a direct application of scientific 9nowled#e3. .lectrical and chemical industries that have profoundly altered our livin# and wor9in# ori#inated in the second half of the 13th century as a direct result of technolo#ical application of the 13th century physics and chemistry. "his has had profound implications for national power and presti#e. 2efore this transformation too9 place, any one who could mo$ili>e enou#h muscle power of men and animals could #ain political power. Fuman history is full of the e%ploits of men li9e ,le%ander, arius, ,u#ustus, Gen#his Ghan, )ahmud of Gha>na, Shaha$uddin of Ghaur, and 2a$ar. &rom the middle of the 13th century, it has $een science and technolo#y emer#in# out of its application that has $ecome the source of power, presti#e and prosperity. 2efore the advent of the Industrial revolution in 140! in .n#land and emer#ence of :uite a few industriali>ed countries in the 13th century, the world was ruled $y few ma<or powers that were dominant in their own re#ions. ?hina dominatin# .ast ,sia, had under her influence states far in the west 7Sin9ian#8, south central ,sia 7"i$et8, north 7)on#olia8. In South ,sia the )u#hels ruled from their capital in elhi. "he Safavids ruled in Persia 9eepin# central ,sian states under their influence. "he Ottoman "ur9s ruled over an empire e%tendin# throu#h Southern .urope, the )iddle .ast and /orth ,frica. &rance, .n#land, Spanish and ,ustrian Faps$ur#s and Cussia dominated .urope+. Fowever, all these countries shared a common economy dominated $y a#riculture and related activities, notwithstandin# the fact that vast amounts of varied artisan and handicraft products for local consumption and for trade were also $ein# produced. "he technolo#ies that were in use were simple $y todayJs standards. ?arpenterJs saw, chisel, $ow-drill, PotterJs wheel, smithJs $ellows and furnace, and oil-presserJs levers, #ears, rotor, were in use. "he source of power was muscle power of animals and humans. In addition watermills and windmills were also $ein# used wherever favoura$le conditions e%isted. "ransport was $y wheeled carts driven $y $ulloc9s, horses or camels. Sail$oats and ships were also in use. -eapons included $ow and arrow, <avelin, sword and da##ers. efense a#ainst these was mounted throu#h shield, moats, and forts. In
11

later centuries heavy artillery fi%ed and mounted also came in increasin# use. Gunpowder had already $een introduced throu#h ?hinese as was paper, horse collar, shoes and stirrups. "ools made of iron; $rass, copper, wood and stone were in use. ?hina and South ,sia dominated the international trade that had $ecome really #lo$al after the entry of .uropeans and the incorporation of ,mericas with the older worlds of ,sia and ,frica in the $e#innin# of the 10th century. 2y the middle of the 1'th century, -est .uropeans especially the Portu#uese, the utch, the &rench the .n#lish had $een tradin# with South, South .ast and &ar .ast ,sia for over two hundred years. 2ut they had nothin# of their own to pay for purchases of #oods from the .ast e%cept the silver and #old they looted from the ,mericas(. Fowever thin#s had started to chan#e from early 10th century, when De+e*op!enta* tates started to emer#e in the era of the #lo$al spread of capitalism. , De+e*op!ent tate 7 S8 puts economic development as the top priority of #overnmental policy and is a$le to desi#n effective instruments to promote such a #oal. "he instruments would include the for#in# of new formal instruments, the weavin# of formal and informal networ9 of colla$oration amon# the citi>ens and officials and the utili>ation of new opportunities for trade and profita$le production0. "he first S was Folland. Seven provinces around the mouth of river Chine renounced their alle#iance to the Spanish 9in# and formed the 6nited Province that came to $e 9nown as /etherlands. &rom the very $e#innin# capitalist interest dominated the state. urin# the ne%t fifty years /etherlands, a country of a$out 1.( million people in 10!! $ecame the top seafarin# nation in .urope and the world with an empire that dotted the #lo$e from Indonesia to the ?ari$$ean. ?apitalism is, $y its nature imperialist. "he new utch ?apitalist state competed for he#emony in #lo$al trade with the already esta$lished maritime powers, the Portu#uese and the Spanish and displaced them as the dominant sea farin# power durin# most of the 14th and early 1'th century. She esta$lished colonies in the &ar .ast and alon# the ,frican ?oast as well as in ,mericas. utch merchants made vast fortunes that have $een cele$rated in the paintin#s of Cem$randt, Aermeer. "he second De+e*op!ent tate to e!erge 3as Eng*and. )ercantile capitalist rule was esta$lished in .n#land in the second half of the 14th century throu#h the so-called .n#lish Cevolution 710+2-10('8. 2y the end of the 14th century 2ritain was the leadin# power in .urope. Soon after she ousted the Spanish and the &rench from /orth ,merica and the ?ari$$ean and emer#ed as an important nation in #lo$al trade. "he profits earned in the #lo$al trade and ruthless e%ploitation of the old and recently ac:uired colonies in the late 1'th century 72en#al in 14(48 #enerated the capital that helped her to launch the first ever Industrial Cevolution in the world4. Paul 2airoch estimates that in 14(!s, ?hina and South ,sia produced &$#4 percent of the world production. "he share of .urope was <ust around 2! percent. Fowever, as a result of the Industria* 2e+o*ution and the rapid adoption of new technolo#y $ased on new source of ener#y 7coal8, steam en#ine and steel, 2ritain soon outstripped all others in economic development. She raised her share of the world )anufacturin# output from 1.3 percent in 14(! to 22.3 percent in 1''!. urin# the same period South ,siaJs share declined from a hi#h of 2+.( percent under indi#enous control to 2.' percent under 2ritish colonial occupation'. "his was lar#ely $ecause of collapse of te%tile industry in 2en#al in the second half of the 1'th century under ruthless colonial practices and policies. "echnolo#y also played its part. ,s a result of the development of new technolo#y of mechani>ation in industrial
12

revolution, productivity in 2ritish spinnin# industry increased $y a phenomenal factor of 3!! to +!!3. "he $asis of the 2ritain supremacy throu#hout the 13th century was her mastery of new industrial technolo#y $ased on coal, steam en#ine and steel production. "he new technolo#y of iron production #ave 2ritain a head start over other .uropean challen#ers li9e &rance and Germany. &rench #overnment assisted a num$er of their entrepreneurs to duplicate the production of car$on rich iron that the 2ritish were producin# $ut all their attempts failed. "he &rench were however more successful in usin# scientific research especially in chemistry to produce or#anic products li9e soda, su#ar and other natural products whose supplies were cut due to 2ritish $loc9ade of &rench ports durin# the /apoleonic wars. Supremacy in chemical research and industrial chemicals stayed with the &rench for the ne%t thirty years. German ?hemists learned their chemistry in &rance in the first half of the 13th century. One of these students was 1ustus von Bie$i#, who on his return to Germany lay the foundations of or#anic chemistry and especially a#ricultural chemistry. ,fter the defeat of &rance in the /apoleonic wars, the challen#e of &rance to 2ritish he#emony receded. Fowever a new challen#er appeared in the form of the newly unified German nation state under 2ismarc9 that used her superior educational institutions and or#ani>ed research to overcome $ac9wardness in industrial manufactures. 2ritain the leadin# manufacturer of te%tile and steel in the world continued to use raw material from her colonies and disre#arded the vast potential of scientific research to find replacement and uses of the waste products of steel ma9in#. ?oal tar is produced in hu#e :uantities durin# steel production and was considered a waste. "he earliest efforts of the chemists had $een to #et rid of coal tar $y $oilin# it off. Fowever, since it $oiled in sta#es and at different temperatures, the result was a variety of tars, which could $e turned into useful products throu#h chemical processin#. "he first synthetic dye was produced in 1'(0, from aniline a coal tar derivative; it could colour fa$rics and hold its colour a#ainst washin#, time and sunli#ht. Germany was the first to use chemists in a $i# way and achieve a lead in industrial chemistry. 2y the end of 13th century si% lar#est German chemical wor9s employed more than 0(! chemists and en#ineers, while the entire 2ritish coal tar industry had no more than thirty or forty1!. 2y 13!! Germany had overta9en 2ritain in steel production. In 1313, $efore the war started German steel production was dou$le that of 2ritain. 2y then the total industrial potential of Germany was 134.3 compared to 124.2 for 2ritain. Celative share of Germany in world manufactures had also surpassed that of 2ritain 71+.' to 13.08 11. &ar away from .urope, another #iant was awa9enin# to challen#e .uropean leadership of the Industrial world. 6S, was :uic9 to learn from German e%perience. 6S industrialists employed German scientists for sortin# out pro$lems in their newly founded steel, chemicals and electrical industries. 2ise o( the 1 A and 5er!an" and the cienti(ic and 'echnica* 2e+o*ution 2ritain had achieved her economic and political position on the $asis of the industrial revolution that was ushered $y entrepreneurs tryin# to overcome shorta#es of traditional sources of power and manpower. "hey were technolo#ists, rather than scientists; men li9e Savery, /ewcomen, -att, and -il9onson who developed the steam en#ine as the new source of power for the industrial revolution as was ar$y who developed the first successful co9e smelt iron and Far#reaves, ,r9wri#ht and ?rompton who developed the machinery for the
13

mechani>ation of te%tile industry. In Industria* re+o*ution science 3as incidenta* to production. Fowever, the rise of the ne%t #eneration of industrial countries, Germany and 6S, was rooted in the e%ploitation of the physical and chemical sciences whose $asis had $een laid down $y the 1'0!s. "he new automotive, electrical and chemical industries were $ased on physics and chemistry. It was ?harles ,. Parson a professor of physics, who invented the hi#h-speed steam tur$ine that revolutioni>ed sea transport. !cience "rom being incidental to production became the basis "or it. 6S and German industrialists were the first to reali>e the importance of scientific research. In 6S,, ?arne#ie put a German chemist to wor9 at the start of the 1'4!s and was a$le to standardi>e the manufacture of pi# iron. General .lectric enlisted the German physicist ?. P. Steinmet>, chiefly to desi#n alternatin# current e:uipment. "homas .dison set up the first research or#ani>ation for the specific purpose of systematic invention, in 1'40. "he first #overnment la$oratories were esta$lished $y the epartment of ,#riculture under an act of the 6S ?on#ress, in 1''0. ,rthur . Bittle $e#an his independent research la$oratory in 1''0. "hese were the forerunners of the corporate research or#ani>ations5 .astman Goda9 71'338, 2. &. Goodrich 71'3(8, and most important General .lectric 713!!8. General )otors did a #reat deal of its research throu#h ?harles &. Getterin#Js ayton .n#ineerin# Ba$oratories ?ompany 7 .B?O8, or#ani>ed in 13!3 and ac:uired $y G) in 1313. ,t the same time the ?orporation also set up other la$oratories, such as the one or#ani>ed for it $y ,rthur . Bittle ?ompany in 1311 to do material testin# and analysis. 2ell "elephone set up its research la$oratories in 13!+. -estin#house Cesearch la$oratories were started in 1314. 2y 132! there were perhaps three hundred such corporate la$oratories and $y 13+!, over 22!!. 2y then, corporations with a tan#i$le net worth of over M1!! million avera#ed research staff of 14!, and those with a net worth e%ceedin# a $illion dollar avera#ed research staff of 1,2(!. "he 2ell "elephone Ba$oratories employin# over (,!!! was the lar#est research or#ani>ation in the world12. /ew monopolies $ased on the e%ploitation of physics and chemistry that were created $y inventors and scientists have survived into the new millennium. &rom an almost insi#nificant share in #lo$al production in 1'!!, 6S, had raised her share to nearly 24#6 percent $y 13!!. "he Celative share of 6S in world manufacturin# rose from 1+.4 percent in1''! to 23.0 in 13!!, to 32 in 1313 and to 47#4 percent in 1728 compared to 6GJs share that declined continually from 22.3 in 1''!, to 3.+ percent in 132'. "he rise has $een on the $asis of new technolo#ies of production 7"aylorJs assem$ly line continuous production8 and new sources of power, oil, electricity, and #as13, new technolo#ies of internal com$ustion en#ine, electrical appliances, tele#raph and chemical dyes. 6S had emer#ed as the new innovators of technolo#ies.

trugg*e (or 9ege!on" a!ong the o*d and the ne3 industria* po3ers ,lthou#h Germany was defeated in the first war amon# the old and new industrial powers, she resumed her challen#e soon after. 2y 1324 it had surpassed 1313 production tar#ets $y over 22 percent. 2efore the second war started in 1333, GermanyJs inde% of manufacturin# production had nearly reached 1(! from 1!! in 13131+. 2y then Germany was spendin# nearly one third of national income on state sponsored pro<ects, mostly arms production. Capid pro#ress in weapons technolo#y were $ein# made as a result of intense application of science and technolo#y to military development was transformin# weapons systems in all the services. &i#hter aircrafts that could carry multiple heavy machine #uns and canon, coc9pit armour and self sealin# fuel tan9s were flyin# at speeds of up to +!! mph.
14

2om$er aircrafts capa$le of carryin# lar#e $om$ loads could fly to destinations two thousand miles away. 2attleships, aircraft carriers were much faster, lar#er, well shielded and $etter e:uipped to deal with enemy planes and torpedoes. "an9s were faster, heavier, $etter armed and $etter armoured. &urthermore all these weapons systems were armed with much more efficient, fast electrical communication and navi#ational systems. "he war 71333-+(8 too9 a heavy toll of men and materials. Germany was defeated. 6S, emer#ed as the undisputed leader of the capitalist world. ,lthou#h hundred of thousands of ,merican soldiers died, 6S, herself was saved the material destruction that the other com$atants suffered. In fact 6S industries that were not utili>in# their full productive capacities $efore the war, not only wor9ed to capacity $ut also increased it. In contrast to the 6nited States undistur$ed $oom, Cussia lost 4.( million of her soldiers as well as 0-' million civilians. ,ccordin# to an estimate 2!-2( million Soviet citi>ens died premature deaths $etween 13+1-+(1(. )aterial dama#e done in the German-occupied territories was so lar#e as to $e $eyond normal ima#inin#s. Soviet 6nion had out-produced Greater Germany in the armaments $attle as well outfi#htin# it at the front; $ut it had done so $y an incredi$le sin#leminded concentration upon military-industrial production and $y drastic decreases in every other sector-consumer #oods, retail trade and a#ricultural supplies. "he 2ussia o( 17:& 3as a !i*itar" giant, .ut econo!ica**" poor10# Bac9in# any assistance from outside, she was forced to resort to enforced economic #rowth from its own resources. ,s $efore the emphasis was upon producer #oods 7heavy industry, coal, electricity, cement8 and transport to the detriment of consumer #oods and a#riculture. 'he )ar and the Micro%e*ectronic 2e+o*ution urin# the war 71333-+(8 a :ualitative chan#e occurred. ,lerted $y scientists of the possi$ility of the development of atomic $om$ $y Germany, 6S, mo$ili>ed the lar#est num$er of scientists and en#ineers to develop the most awesome and destructive weapons the world had ever seen- the atomic $om$. "he effort cost over M two $illion $ut #ave 6S, the monopoly of the atomic $om$ for nearly four years. It started an arms race unprecedented in human history. 6S, had emer#ed as the undisputed leader of the capitalist world. Fowever she had to contend with 6SSC, which had emer#ed as the other dominant power after the war and was providin# an alternative path to capitalist road to development. espite stiff opposition from the scientists who had developed the atomic $om$, not to continue further development of atomic weapons, 6S, used the monopoly of these dia$olic weapons to reinforce her dominance of the world, continued to pursue the development of more and more lethal atomic weapons. 6SSC was forced to respond to 6S challen#e. Fer scientists developed their own atom $om$ in 13+3, four years after 6S, used her atomic $om$ on Firoshima. 6S, attempted to maintain her superiority $y developin# an even more lethal and destructive Fydro#en $om$ in 13(1. 6SSC responded with one of her own hydro#en $om$. ,n intense arm race $etween 6S, and 6SSC continued till 13'3, endin# only with the collapse of the Soviet 6nion. 2etween 13+' to 134! 6S, spent M1107.( $illion dollars on defense, while 6SSC spent an almost similar, M 747 $illion durin# the same period. .%penditures on defense $y other capitalist nations, 6G, &rance, 1apan and Germany were minuscule in comparison, M'4, ''.(, 0!.3 and 11.+ $illion respectively14. -eapons research and development ta9es a$out 1! I of the world military e%penditures. "ill the end of 13'!s, 6S, and 6SSC appear to control a$out 80 I of all military research, #ivin# them a near monopoly of offensive and defensive weapons systems 7$om$s, laser #uided missiles, lon# ran#e $om$ers, fi#hter planes, surveillance planes,
15

unmanned, and ,-?,S. .ach devotin# to weapons research twice as much pu$lic money as they spend on all research for civilian needs. 2ecause of the enormous resources that it commands, $oth in money and s9illed personnel, research for military applications has $een the dominant force in the development of new technolo#y in the last seventy years. Givin# a continuous momentum to the arm race, weapons research has made the pace of military development essentially independent of the e%istin# threat to the nation. In the superpowers competition each side considers it essential to develop and produce whatever technolo#y is possi$le, on the #rounds that the adversary will surely do so. "he inevita$le response of the adversary confirms the accuracy of the e%pectation, and <ustifies a new round in the competition. Cesearch is the instrument throu#h which Lanta#onistic co-operationL $etween the two leadin# adversaries a never endin# escalation of the armin#. "he :uality spiral, which is essentially $e#ins with the two #iants, in a short time is without #eo#raphic limits.1' -hat has $een descri$ed a$ove is $est illustrated $y the continuous development of more and more lethal atomic weapons and their delivery systems $y the two superpowers from 13+( onwards. 6SSC responded to 6S atomic $om$ with her own in atomic $om$ four years later in 13+3. Fer scientists developed their own atom $om$ in 13+3, four years after 6S, used her atomic $om$ on Firoshima. 6S, attempted to maintain her superiority $y developin# an even more lethal and destructive Fydro#en $om$ in 13(2. 6SSC responded with one of her own hydro#en $om$ within a year 1n 13(3. In 13+' 6S developed a lon#ran#e intercontinental $om$er to carry atomic $om$. 6SSC responded $y developin# one of her own in 13(0. In the ne%t sta#e it was 6SSC turn to introduce a new weapon system, an intercontinental $allistic missile 7I?2)8 capa$le of carryin# an atomic $om$ in 13(4. 6S, developed one of her own I?2) a year later. in 13('. In 13(4, 6SSC sent a satellite Sputni9 into space. 6S, responded $y sendin# one of her own satellite in the ne%t year. 6S, further upsta#ed 6SSC $y introducin# photoreconnaissance satellites in 13(3, to $e countered $y 6SSC own system in 1302. 6S, also introduced Su$marine Baunched 2allistic )issile 7SB2)8 in 130!, which 6SSC countered with their own SB2) in 130'. In 1300 6S introduced )ultiple -arhead 7)CA8 carryin# I?2)s. 6SSC too9 <ust two years to respond with one of their own )CA carryin# I?2) system. "o counter 6S supremacy 6SSC developed an anti$allistic missile 7,2)8 system around )oscow in 130'. 6S, responded with134! )ultiple Independently "ar#eted -arhead 7)ICA8 system that 6SSC could reply to only five years later in 134(. 6S, continued to develop more effective offensive atomic weapons systems; lon# ran#e ?ruise )issile 713'28, /eutron $om$ 713'38, new strate#ic $om$er 713'(8 that were all countered with similar system $y the 6SSC with some time la#. urin# the term of Conald Cea#an, 713'2-''8 6S, em$ar9ed upon an e%tremely am$itious and e%pensive anti satellite roc9et system, the so-called star war pro#ramme. In the early 133!s, 6S, also developed a most e%pensive nuclear $om$ carryin# NStealthL or 22, spirit, lon#-ran#e $om$er, which cost a hefty M2.4 $illion per plane, if the Cesearch and development costs are included. "his $om$er, which can evade detection $y radar, has $een used $y 6S a#ainst the totally defenseless ,f#hanistan and wea9lin# Ira:, that didnJt have even an effective wor9in# defense radar system. Over the years, a$out 110 weapons systems were $uilt to deliver a total of 4!,!!! warheads and $om$s. "he air force had +2 types of nuclear weapons, the navy and marines, 3+, and the army21. "wenty-five other pro#rammes were developed $ut cancelled $efore production $e#an. 2etween 13+( to 133(, 6S, fielded
16

+,!!! nuclear capa$le $om$er aircraft of ten distinct types. ,$out 04,(!! nuclear tipped missiles of (! types were procured. "hese included 3,10! intercontinental $allistic missiles 7I?2)s8, and 2,34( seas launched $allistic missiles 7SB2)s8. 2etween13+( to 13'( the ran#e to which $om$s could $e delivered increased 202 fold. "he area of destruction over which a $om$ could spread destruction increased 2(! times. Bethality of the weapons increased 2!! times. "his vast improvement in the effectiveness of the armament was achieved $y massive investment in scientific research and development. ,n amount of ' to 3 thousand $illion dollars has $een spent to create a nuclear arsenal13. "he success of the )anhattan pro<ect also demonstrated to all #overnments the importance and usefulness of scientific research and development for national power, presti#e and wealth. Since the Second -orld -ar 6S, has continuously spent more than any other country on science and technolo#y. ,s a result the scientific leadership in the world passed from -estern .urope to 6S,. On the avera#e 6S, spends more than 2.' percent of her #ross national product 7G/P8 on scientific C O 718. "his has ena$led 6S, to emer#e as the leader in the production of new scientific and technolo#ical products. Cesearch and development activities produce new 9nowled#e and new products and services. Bet us ta9e a few e%amples. "ransistor was discovered <ust after the Second -orld -ar in 2ell Ba$oratory owned $y the #iant ,merican "ele#raph and "elephone 7,"O"8. -ithin twenty years it $ecame an indispensa$le part of every electronic device. )icroprocessor were developed in 1341, soon they were at the core all automated devices. ?omputer was developed in the mid +!s. Personal computers appeared in 134(. /ow these computers are found in every office and household in developed countries. Basers were developed in mid (!s. /ow they are found in divers devices includin# the compact dis9 player. 6SSC launched her first satellite in 13(4. -ithin si% years the first communication satellite ?O)S," went up. /ow satellite help in communication as well as remote sensin# in a routine manner. ish antenna on rooftops everywhere is a stri9in# e%ample of the wide use of satellite communication. "he helical structure of /, was discovered in 13(0. /ow this discovery has led to a multi $illion dollars $iotechnolo#y industry. /umerous e%amples from other $ranches of science can also $e #iven. Internet was introduced in the early 133!s. It has $ecome a household item in most of the developed countries, even penetratin# in the houses and offices of the affluent in the developin# world. ,s the 21st century $e#ins, the 6S, continues to occupy a position of eminence as producer of new science and technolo#y. In the year 2!!2, research and development 7CO 8 e%penditure is e%pected to reach M231.003. Of this the &ederal #overnment contri$uted M'1.!!+, while the industry contri$uted M133.+2!. "he 6niversities, ?olle#es and other nonprofit institutions contri$uted another M14.2+ $illion. Of this amount 6niversities and ?olle#es spent 34.+31 $illion, while &ederal #overnment institutions spent another M21.(00 $illion. CO performin# industries increased their net 6S sales from +,32(.12+ $illions in 1333 to (,2+3.(43 in 2!!!. "he increased sales were accompanied $y a reduction in the num$er of employees from 1'.221 million to 14.003 million. In 1333, 6S economy employed a total of 1!,+43,'!! science and en#ineerin# 7SO.8 #raduates 7(4I 2achelorJs de#ree, while 2.3 million had )asterJs de#ree and 422 thousands had a doctorate. Of the over ten million 3,(+!,'!! were employed in science and en#ineerin# professions. Of these +'+,1!! had octorates, 1,!32,1!! had )asterJs and the rest 2achelorJs de#ree2!.
17

6S is the $i##est producer of five 9nowled#e intensive services, which contri$uted a total of over M 3,+'+ $illion to her G P in 133'2!. In the year 2!!3 6S, G P had #rown to ;10,47$#$ $illion dollars from <ust M'0(.2 $illion in 1323, in chained 2!!! dollars. She was also the lar#est e%porter of #oods and services in the world22. 2y the end of the last century, 6S, had the lar#est stoc9 of scientists and en#ineers of over ten million, in the whole world. "his num$er has $een reached throu#h e%ponential #rowth from around 1!! in 1'!! , . It #rew to 10,!!! in 1'0! , and 12',!!! in 13!( , , 1,!2+,!!! in 13(!, , 2,!+',!!! in 130( and +,!30,!!! in 13'!. In 1333. 6S scientists and en#ineers filed 24!,1'4 patent applications. "hey also pu$lished 103,(20 scientific articles out of a world total of (2',0+3. 6S inventors received technolo#y payments 7patent and license fees, royalties etc.,8 of M3',!3!.! $illions. In that year 6S, had a positive technolo#y $alance of payment of M21,32+.! $illion. 6S have over a :uarter 72(.12 I8 of the O.? e%port mar9et in hi#h technolo#y manufacturin# products23. In fact over the years 6S companies have transferred a considera$le part of their manufacturin# activities overseas, while concentratin# on hi#h technolo#y manufacturin#, aerospace, microelectronics, telecommunication, special materials, pharmaceuticals and $iotechnolo#ical products and sophisticated weapons systems. 1 o+er3he*!ing Mi*itar" Might Since her success in developin# the first atomic $om$ in 13+(, 6S has continued to produce and deploy the most advanced weapon system. She has devoted the ma<or part of her CO efforts to military purposes. She also spends hu#e amounts on defense. She spent a sta##erin# amount of M3,3!! $illion, over forty five years 713+!-133(8, <ust on the development of nuclear weapons, their delivery, command and control systems. urin# 2!!2 her military e%penditure was M33(.4 $illion, that was +3 I of the world total military e%penditure of M 4'+ $illion 7SIPCI8. 6S, military e%penditure e%ceeds the com$ined military e%penditures of other ne%t fourteen $i##est spenders; 1apan, 6G, &rance, ?hina, Germany, Saudi ,ra$ia, Italy, Iran, South Gorea, India, Cussia, "ur9ey, 2ra>il, and Israel2+. "he defense industry in 6S employees 2.2 million people, that is a$out 2I of the civilian wor9force. In the fiscal year 1333, the epartment of efense awarded M11' $illion to contractors for #oods and services. 6S continue to dominate the #lo$al arms sales. In the year 2!!!, 6S sold M1'.3 $illion worth of arms. "he administration of President Geor#e 2ush is re:uestin# M333.1 $illion for the military in fiscal year 2!!+ 7M343.3 $illion for the military and M13.3$illion for the nuclear weapons8. Of the total, 42.4 $illions are for procurement of weapons systems, and 01.' $illion for research and development of new weapons systems. "he administration plans to spend M24!! $illion on the military over the ne%t si% years2(. Arrogance o( the o*e uperpo3er It is #enerally thou#ht that after the collapse of the Soviet 6nion in 13'3, 6S, has #rown arro#ant and is tar#etin# the )uslims everywhere as e%emplified $y her total support
18

of Israel and her a##ression a#ainst the "ale$an #overnment of ,f#hanistan and 2!!3 invasion and occupation of Ira:. "he truth is that 6S, has $een consistent in her policies from the very $e#innin# of her emer#ence as an independent country in 1440. 6S, started as a union of <ust ten states on the .astern ?oast and a population of less than four million. It has a##ressively e%panded westwards, herdin# /ative ,merican into reservations far from their natural ha$itats. She defeated older esta$lished &rench, utch, Spanish and )e%ican colonists in the rest of /orth ,merica to create the present continent wide 6S, in the mid 1'(!. ,fter consolidatin# their rule in /orth ,merica, the leaders of the 6S, turned their attention southwards. "hey intervened repeatedly in various countries of ?entral and South ,merica to advance the corporate interests of their capitalists. Poltan Grossman has compiled a list of 6.S. military intervention since 1'3!. N"he 6nited States military has $een intervenin# in other countries for a lon# time. In 1'3', it sei>ed the Philippines, ?u$a, and Puerto Cico from Spain, and in 1314-1' $ecame em$roiled in -orld -ar I in .urope. In the first half of the 2!th century it repeatedly sent )arines to DprotectoratesD such as /icara#ua, Fonduras, Panama, Faiti, and the ominican Cepu$lic. ,ll these interventions directly served corporate interests, and many resulted in massive losses of civilians, re$els, and soldiers20.L ,nother 6S writer -illiam 2lum has summari>ed the actions of 6S #overnments from the end of -orld -ar II to the present. 6S #overnment has attempted to Noverthrow more than forty forei#n #overnments, has invaded some twenty soverei#n nations, has wor9ed to crush more than 3! populist movements which were fi#htin# a#ainst dictatorial re#imes, has provided indispensa$le support to a small army of $rutal dictatorships5 )o$uto of Paire, Pinochet of ?hile, uvalier of Faiti, Somo>a of /icara#ua, the Gree9 1unta, )arcos of Philippines, Chee of Gorea, the Shah of Iran, +! years of military dictators in Guatemala, Suharto of Indonesia, the 2ra>ilian <unta, "ru<illo of the ominican Cepu$lic, "ale$ans of ,f#hanistan and others24.L Grossman further o$serves, N ,lthou#h nearly all the post--orld -ar II interventions were carried out in the name of DfreedomD and Ddemocracy,D nearly all of them in fact defended dictatorships controlled $y pro-6.S. elites. -hether in Aietnam, ?entral ,merica, or the Persian Gulf, the 6.S. was not defendin# DfreedomD $ut an ideolo#ical a#enda 7such as defendin# capitalism8 or an economic a#enda 7such as protectin# oil company investments8. In fact 6S role in world is very much similar to the one demonstrated $y 2ritain durin# most of the 13th and second half of the 2!th century. She intervened directly or indirectly wherever; the interests of 2ritish capital were threatened. "he only difference now is that 6S, now intervenes everywhere to impose values of #lo$al capital, free movement of capital, minimum re#ulations $y nation states. ,s such capitalists of every country favour 6S policies even when they are a#ainst the interests of the ma<ority of their people. 6nder 6S leadership, the interests of the capitalists are well served. "his is testified $y the fact that while the #lo$al economy has either sta#nated or #rown slowly since 134!s, ?orporate profits and assets of the world richest have multiplied many times over. In the 6nited States, the real wee9ly earnin#s of production and supervisory wor9ers 7in 1332 dollars8 fell from M31( in 1343 to 20+ in 13'3. ,fter a decade of economic e%pansion, it reached 241 in 1333, which
19

remained lower than the avera#e real wa#e in 1302. "he income #ap $etween the richest 2! percent and the poorest 2! percent in the world rose from3!5 1 in 130! to 0!51 in 133! and 4+51 in 1333. On the other hand, 2!! richest people, accordin# to 1333 Fuman evelopment Ceport, Nmore than dou$led their net worth in four years to 133', to over a M 1 trillionL. 6S he#emony is on the decline as her economic power is steady declinin# since the 134!s2'. Since 13(! 6S share in the world #ross product has declined to 21 percent from nearly (! percent in 13(!. 6S share of world manufacturin# also declined from 0! percent in 13(! to 2( percent in 1333. /on K6S companies dominated ma<or industries in 2!!2, accountin# for nine of the ten lar#est electronics and electrical e:uipment manufacturers; ei#ht out of ten lar#est motor vehicle ma9ers and electric and #as utilities; seven of the ten lar#est petroleum refiners; si% of ten telecommunication companies; four of si% chemical producers, five of ten pharmaceutical firms, four of seven airlines and nineteen of 2( lar#est $an9s. "he share of 6S in forei#n direct investment in other countries has declined to 21 percent from a hi#h of +4 percent in 130!. In 2!!2 6S for the first time paid to the forei#ners more investment income from their holdin# in 6S than it received from its own investment a$road. "he 6nited States of ,merica <ust cannot sustain her present level of consumption for very lon#, as it has to $orrow constantly to $alance its current account deficit. In 2!!2,the 6S, $orrowed M(!3 $illion from a$road, a record +.' percent of G P. -hen forei#ners receive dollars from transactions with 6.S. residents 7individuals, companies, #overnments8, they can use them to $uy ,merican assets 76.S. "reasury $onds, corporate $onds and stoc9s, companies, and real estate8. "his is how the 6nited States turned into a de$tor nation in 13'0; forei#n-owned assets in the 6nited States are now worth M2.( trillion more than 6.S.-owned assets a$road. 2y mid-2!!3, forei#ners owned +1 percent of 6.S. "reasury mar9eta$le de$t, 2+ percent of all 6.S. corporate $onds, and 13 percent of corporate stoc9. 6.S. companies are continuin# to invest a$road, $ut unli9e the 2ritish .mpire in the decades $efore the &irst -orld -ar, the 6nited States is una$le to finance those investments from its current account23. "he world is witnessin# the twili#ht era of the he#emonic power. /ew economic powers are #oin# to emer#e on the scene in the ne%t fifty years. Fowever the a##ressive and arro#ance of 6S, in the intervenin# years can only $e countered $y unitin# with #lo$al movement a#ainst the rule of the capital and esta$lishment of a humane, sustaina$le development and participatory democracy round the world. "ill then 6S will try to ma9e up for its declinin# economic power $y the mi#ht of its military and sophisticated arms. #e"erences 1. Ian )c/eil 7.d8, An Encyclopedia of the History of Technology, Aol.1, p. 3, Coutled#e, Bondon, 713308. 2. avid S. Bandes, The Unbound Prometheus: Technological Change and Industrial e!elopment in Europe from "#$% to the Present, ?am$rid#e 6niversity Press 713038 3. Farry 2raverman, &abour and Monopoly Capitalism: The egradation of Wor' in The T(entieth Century, p.03, )onthly Ceview Press, /@ 7134+8 +. ,ndre Gunder &ran9, )e*)IE+T: ,lobal Economy in the Asian Age, 6niversity of ?alifornia Press, 7133'8.
20

(. ,. ). 2a#chi, 1ournal of -orld System Cesearch, 2, 72!!!8, p-33'-++2. 0. Fam>a ,lavi, Colonialism and the )ise of Capitalism, 713338 4. Paul 2airoch, NInternational Industriali>ation Bevels from 14(! to 13'!L, 1ournal of .uropean .conomics Fistory, 11, 713'28. '. Paul Gennedy- )ise and .all of ,reat Po(ers, p. 1+', Candom Fouse, /@, 713'48. 3. Farry 2raverman, i$id, p. 102. 1!. Paul Gennedy, i$id. ta$les, 1( O 14, p. 2!!, 2!1. 11. Farry 2raverman, i$id, p. 10+. 12. Paul Gennedy, i$id, ta$les, 1', p. 2!2 13. Bea#ue of /ations, World Economic /ur!ey, "a$le III, p. 13+, Geneva 713+(8, cited in Paul Gennedy- )ise of .all of ,reat Po(ers, 1+. G. Fos9in#, , Fistory of the Soviet 6nion. p. 230, Bondon, 713'(8, cited in Paul Gennedy- )ise of .all of ,reat Po(ers, p. 302 1(. /ove, .conomic Fistory of the 6SSC, p.2'(, cited in Paul Gennedy- )ise of .all of ,reat Po(ers, p. 302. 10. Paul Gennedy. Ibid, p.302 14. Paul Gennedy. Ibid, ta$le. 34. P.3'+ 1'. Cuth Be#er Sivard, World Military and /ocial E0penditures- "12$, 13. 2ulletin of ,tomic Scientists, /ovQ ec. 133(. 2!. Main /cience And Technology Indicators, O.? , 2!!2 7Geneva8 21. Science and .n#ineerin# Indictors, /ational Science &oundation, -ashin#ton, 72!!18. 22. Op. cit. 23. Op. cit 2+. SIPCI @ear$oo9, 2!!2 2(. &iscal @ear 2!!+ iscretionary 2ud#et Ce:uest, 6S, #overnment, 2!!+. 20. Poltan Grossman, , Fistory of 6S )ilitary Interventions5 &rom -ounded Gnee to ,f#hanistan, P/.".
21

24. -illiam 2lum, )ouge /tate: A ,uide to the World3s *nly /uper Po(er, 2'. )in#:i Bi, After +eo &iberalism: Empire- /ocial emocracy or /ocialism, )onthly Ceview, 1anuary 2!!+. 23. Cichard 2. u 2off, U/ Hegemony: Continuing ecline- Enduring anger, )onthly Ceview, 2!!3

Dr. Anis Alam

FIFTY YEARS: AN APPRAISAL OF DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN

Ghulam Kibria, (DAWN: Nov. 3, 1996 ha! loo"#$ a% %h# &ir!% &i&%' '#ar! o& (a"i!%a) a)$ i! )o% ha**' a% +ha% h# !##!. ,) #v#r' l#v#l, h# !##! $#%#riora%io). -o+#v#r, i& o)# a..#*%! %ha% (a"i!%a)i! ar# or$i)ar' mor%al! %r'i)/ %o !urviv# i) a /iv#) /#o/ra*hi.al ar#a a! b#!% a! %h#' *o!!ibl' .a) %h#) +ha% ha! b##) ha**#)i)/ i) (a"i!%a) ov#r %h# la!% &i&%' '#ar! i! $#&i)i%#l' )o% a $i!a!%#r. A lo% o& *ro/r#!! ha! b##) ma$#. A.%uall' .om*ar#$ %o %h# ra%# o& $#v#lo*m#)% $uri)/ .olo)ial %im#! (a"i!%a) ha! $o)# &airl' +#ll. 0rom a *r#$omi)a)%l' a/raria) !o.i#%' (a"i!%a) ha! b##) %ra)!&orm#$ i)%o a i)$u!%rial 1 !#rvi.# 1 a/ri.ul%ural .om*l#2. Almo!% o)# %hir$ o& +ho!# *#o*l# )o+ liv# i) urba) ar#a!. 3hi! %ra)!&orma%io) ha! %a"#) *la.# u)$#r %h# &ram#+or" o& a .a*i%ali!% #.o)om'. A! !u.h i%! b#)#&i%! hav# al!o a..ru#$ %o %h# m#mb#r! o& %ha% .la!! a)$ i%! a!!o.ia%#$ /rou*!. Wha% #v#r b#)#&i%! hav# &il%#r#$ $o+) %o %h# ma!!#! hav# b##) i).i$#)%al %o %h# #)ri.hm#)% o& %h# *ro*#r%i#$ .la!!#!, m#r.ha)%!, i)$u!%riali!%!, *ro*#r%' o+)#r!, bu!i)#!!ma), .ivil a)$ mili%ar' bur#au.ra%! a)$ la)$o+)#r!. 3h# *robl#m! +# #).ou)%#r all arou)$ u! ar# *robl#m! o& a ov#r*o*ula%#$, %ra$i%io)al !o.i#%', %ha% !%ill %ri#! %o &u).%io) i) %h# la!% '#ar! o& 20 %h .#)%ur' +i%h i)%#ll#.%ual! %ool! &a!hio)#$ i) $a'! /o)# lo)/ b'#. 3h#r# ha! b##) hal& h#ar%#$ a%%#m*%! b' %h# !%a%# %o $#v#lo* %h# ")o+ ho+ o& %h# *o*ula.#. 3h# r#!ul%! ar# al!o r#&l#.%iv# o& %ha% hal& ba"#$ !.h#m#!. Whil# a..#*%i)/ &rom %h# v#r' b#/i))i)/ %ha% %h# *oli%i.al l#a$#r!hi* ha! )o% b##) %h# b#!% bu% %ha% +a! +ha% +a! availabl# b#.au!# o& hi!%ori.al r#a!o)!. (a"i!%a) +a! ob%ai)#$ +i%hou% mu.h !%ru//l#. 4) &a.% %h# ar#a! %ha% #m#r/#$ a! (a"i!%a) $i$ )o% !## mu.h o& a *oli%i.al mov#m#)% &or a) i)$#*#)$#)% (a"i!%a) %ill 5u!% a $#.a$# b#&or# i)$#*#)$#).# +a! a.hi#v#$. 6u!lim l#a/u# !oo) $#/#)#ra%#$ i)%o %h# ha)$mai$#) o& %h# .ivil a)$ mili%ar' b#auru.ra.' a&%#r %h# $#*ar%ur# o& 7i)ah a)$ 8ia9a% Ali Kha). ,%h#r *oli%i.al *ar%i#! +#r# )o% allo+#$ %o $#v#lo*. 4) %h#ir ab!#).# %h# %ra$i%io)al *o+#r +i#l$#r!: %h# la)$o+)#r! a)$ o%h#r *ro*#r%i#$ .la!!#! , .o)%i)u#$ %o rul# u)$#r %h# +a%.h&ul #'#! o& %h# )o) #l#.%#$ i)!%i%u%io)!. 3h#' hav# b##) am*l' r#+ar$#$. (a"i!%a)i! ma' b# %h# l#a!% li%#ra%# a)$ l#a!% .ar#$ &or *#o*l# i) %h# +orl$ bu% h#r la)$o+)#r!, %ra$#r!, i)$u!%riali!%!, %o*
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a)$ mi$$l# l#v#l .ivil a)$ mili%ar' b#auru.ra%#! hav# *ro!*#r#$ mu.h %o %h# #)v' o& %h#ir .ou)%#r*ar%! #l!#+h#r#. Wh#) (a"i!%a) #m#r/#$ a! a) i)$#*#)$#)% .ou)%r' i) !ou%h A!ia i) 1947 a&%#r %h# $#*ar%ur# o& %h# ;ri%i!h .olo)ial *o+#r. 3h# ar#a! +hi.h ma$# u* (a"i!%a) +#r# *r#$omi)a)%l' a/raria). 3h#r# +a! v#r' li%%l# i)$u!%r' a! mo!% o& %h# i)$u!%r' i) .olo)ial 4)$ia +a! .o).#)%ra%#$ i) %h# .oa!%al .i%i#! <al.u%%a, 6a$ra! a)$ ;omba'. All %h#!# .i%i#! +#r# !i%ua%#$ i) 4)$ia. (a"i!%a) *ro$u.#$ %+o im*or%a)% .a!h .ro*!, .o%%o) a)$ 5u%#. 6o!% o& %h# #2*or% #ar)i)/! &or (a"i!%a) .am# &rom %h#!# %+o .ro*! %ill 5u%# *ro$u.i)/ #a!%#r) hal& .#$#$ &rom (a"i!%a) %o b#.om# ;a)/la D#!h i) D#.#mb#r 1971. A% %h# %im# o& h#r i)$#*#)$#).# %h# .o)%ribu%io) o& lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ %o %h# /ro!! )a%io)al *ro$u.% (GN( +a! l#!! %ha) %+o *#r.#)%. N#+ /ov#r)m#)% o& (a"i!%a) i)!%i%u%#$ %ra$# 1 &i!.al 1 i)$u!%rial *oli.i#! +hi.h h#l*#$ i) .r#a%i)/ a i)$u!%riali!% .la!!. (a"i!%a) Gov#r)m#)% .r#a%#$ %hrou/h i%! o+) r#!our.#! a (a"i!%a) 4)$u!%rial D#v#lo*m#)% <or*ora%io) ((4D< i) 1951. 3hi! .or*ora%io) #!%abli!h#$ )#+ i)$u!%rial .o).#r)! a)$ o).# %h#' !%ar%#$ ma"i)/ *ro&i%!, !ol$ %h#m .h#a*l' %o *riva%# #)%r#*r#)#ur!. ;' 1962 (4D< ha$ #!%abli!h#$ a)$ %h#) ha)$#$ ov#r !i2%##) lar/# i)$u!%rial .o).#r)! ma)u&a.%uri)/ 5u%#, .o%%o) *ro$u.%! , *a*#r, !u/ar a)$ .h#mi.al! %o %#) l#a$i)/ i)$u!%rial hou!#!. 3h# ra%# o& /ro+%h o& ma)u&a.%uri)/ i)$u!%r' $uri)/ %h# &ir!% hal& o& %h# 50=! +a! a) im*r#!!iv# 24 *#r.#)%. >v#) i) %h# !#.o)$ hal& o& %h# 50=! %h# ra%# r#mai)#$ a) im*r#!!iv# 9 *#r.#)%. -o+#v#r b' %h# #)$ o& %h# $#.a$# lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ !#.%or ha$ i).r#a!#$ &our&ol$. Alo)/ +i%h %hi! im*r#!!iv# /ro+%h #m#r/#$ /r#a% .o).#)%ra%io) o& i)$u!%rial a!!#%! a)$ mo)o*ol' hou!#!. 4) 1958 mili%ar' $i.%a%or!hi* +a! im*o!#$ o) (a"i!%a) b' %h# %h#) Arm' <hi#& A'ub Kha). -i! rul# la!%#$ ov#r %#) '#ar!. 3ra$# u)io) a.%ivi%i#! +#r# ba))#$ a)$ i)$u!%riali!% +#r# /iv#) &r## ha)$ %o #2*a)$ a)$ *ro!*#r. ;#%+##) %h# %#) '#ar *#rio$ 1959?60 1969?70 lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ !#.%or /r#+ a% a) av#ra/# ra%# o& 12.5 *#r.#)%. ;' %h#) %+#)%' %+o &amili#! .o)%roll#$ 87 *#r.#)% o& ba)"i)/ a)$ i)!ura).#, a)$ 66 *#r.#)% o& %h# i)$u!%rial a!!#%! i) %h# .ou)%r'. @#*r#!!iv# *ro .a*i%ali!% a)$ a)%i $#mo.ra%i. mili%ar' rul# *rovo"#$ a ma!!iv# *#o*l#=! mov#m#)% i) 1968 r#!ul%i)/ i) %h# ov#r%hro+ o& A'ub mili%ar' $i.%a%or!hi*. >l#.%io)! +#r# h#l$ i) 1970. @#lu.%a).# o) %h# *ar% o& %h# mili%ar' /ov#r)m#)% %o %ra)!&#r *o+#r %o #l#.%#$ r#*r#!#)%a%iv#! l#$ %o a .ivil +ar i) 1971 a)$ &i)all' %o %h# br#a"?u* o& (a"i!%a) i)%o %+o *ar%. 3h# >a!%#r) +i)/ b#.am# a) i)$#*#)$#)% .ou)%r' .all#$ ;a)/la D#!h. A).#r%ai) *oli%i.al .o)$i%io)! "#*% %h# /ro+%h o& lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ !#.%or %o a mi)imum o& o)l' 0.1 *#r.#)% $uri)/ %h# *#rio$ 1969?72. ;u% %hi! *#rio$ !a+ ma!!iv# i).r#a!# i) %h# )umb#r o& u)io)i!#$ +or"#r!.

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4) 1972 %h# )#+ /ov#r)m#)% o& (a"i!%a) (#o*l#! (ar%' (((( )a%io)ali!#$ ba)"! a)$ lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ u)i%! *ro$u.i)/ #)/i)##ri)/ /oo$!, i)$u!%rial .h#mi.al!, /h##, .#m#)%, oil r#&i)#ri#! a)$ &#r%ili!#r &a.%ori#!. ;u% %h# im*a.% o& )a%io)ali!a%io) m#a!ur#! +a! mor# *!'.holo/i.al a! *riva%# i)v#!%m#)% $ri#$ u*. ;u% %hi! +a! mor# %ha) ma$# u* %hrou/h ma!!iv# i)v#!%m#)% i) %h# *ubli. !#.%or. 3h# av#ra/# /ro+%h ra%# &or i)$u!%r' $uri)/ %h# &iv# '#ar (((=! rul# r#mai)#$ a h#al%h' !#v#) *#r.#)%. 3hi! i! %h# &i)$i)/ o& %h# Worl$ ;a)" +iBar$, Chahi$ 7av#$ ;ur"i a! r#v#al#$ i) hi! boo"! o) (a"i!%a)i #.o)om'D A.%uall' Wha% ;hu%%o $i$ +a! )o%hi)/ #2%raor$i)ar' &or %h# mili#u h# +a! livi)/ i). ,) %h# o%h#r !i$# o& %h# bor$#r %h# 4)$ia) (rim# 6i)i!%#r 4)$ra Ga)$hi +a! $oi)/ %h# !am#. Ch# )a%io)ali!#$ all ba)"! a)$ o%h#r &i)a).ial i)!%i%u%io)! $uri)/ %h# !am# *#rio$. 4& o)# loo"! a% %h# i)v#!%m#)% *ro.#!!, o)# &i)$! %ha% %h#' ma5or *ar% o& i)v#!%m#)% .om#! &rom %h# loa)! %h# i)v#!%or! %a"# &rom ba)"! a)$ o%h#r &i)a).ial i)!%i%u%io)!. Duri)/ ;hu%%o #ra %h#!# borro+i)/! +#r# mo!%l' b' %h# !%a%# &or *ubli. !#.%or $#v#lo*m#)%. 3ha% %h# !%a%# !#.%or $#/#)#ra%#$ i)%o a ov#r ma)a/#$, ov#r !%a&&#$ #.o)omi.all' i)#&&i.i#)% m#!!, i! a)o%h#r !%or'. -o+#v#r, (a"i!%a) $i$ .r#a%# a i)&ra !%ru.%ur# &or h#av' i)$u!%r' i) %h# !%a%# !#.%or. 3h# Kara.hi Chi* Ear$, -#av' m#.ha)i.al .om*l#2 a% 3a2ila, a)$ 8a)$hi, variou! &a.ili%i#! +i%h %h# $#&#).# #!%abli!hm#)% hav# *la'#$ a) im*or%a)% *ar% i) .r#a%i)/ .a*abili%i#!. 3h# &ailur# hav# mo!%l' %o $o +i%h bur#au.ra%i!#$ ma)a/#m#)% a)$ *oor 9uali%' mi$$l# l#v#l ma)a/#m#)% a)$ +or"&or.# a)$ ill %rai)#$ a)$ li%%l# #$u.a%#$ +or"#r!. -o+#v#r i) 1977 a)o%h#r mili%ar' %a"#?ov#r a)$ ha)/i)/ o& #l#.%#$ *rim# mi)i!%#r &ail#$ %o r#!%or# .o)&i$#).# o& *riva%# i)v#!%or. >i/h%i#! hav# !##) a ma!!iv# i)&lu2 o& )#+ #)%r#*r#)#ur! )ur%ur#$ b' mili%ar' /ov#r)m#)% a)$ bla." mo)#' i).lu$i)/ $ru/ mo)#'. 3hi! *#rio$ ha! !##) &#+ *ro5#.%! i) lar/# !.al# ma)u&a.%uri)/ bu% a hu/# )umb#r o& !mall ma)u&a.%uri)/ u)i%! $#ali)/ i) %#2%il#!, .ar*#%!, l#a%h#r, /h## a)$ o%h#r! hav# b##) !#% u*. -o+#v#r labour ha! lo!% i%! $riv# &or mor# ri/h%!. 3h#r# i! lar/# !.al# r#%r#).hm#)% o& +or"#r! &rom i)$u!%rial .o).#r)! +hi.h hav# b##) $#)a%io)ali!#$ i) r#.#)% '#ar!. D#.a$# o& mili%ar' rul# ha! &ra/m#)%#$ %h# labour mov#m#)% o) #%h)i. a)$ !#.%aria) li)#!. 8ar/# !.al# *#)#%ra%io) o& labour mov#m#)% b' !#.%aria) a)$ #%h)i. or/a)i!a%io) o&%#) u)$#r a) or/a)i!#$ *la) b' %h# mili%ar' /ov#r)m#)% ha! +#a"#)#$ %h# labour mov#m#)%. (a"i!%a) i)$u!%riali!a%io) ha! *a!!#$ %hrou/h !#v#ral *ha!#!. 3h# &ir!% *ha!# la!%i)/ )#arl' %#) '#ar! +i%)#!!#$ %h# .r#a%io) o& a i)$u!%riali!% .la!!. 8ar/# )umb#r o& i)$u!%rial .o).#r)! mo!%l' ma)u&a.%uri)/ .o)!um#r /oo$!: %#2%il#!, li/h% #)/i)##ri)/ /oo$!, .#m#)%, l#a%h#r /oo$!, #$ibl# oil a)$ /h##, .h#mi.al! #%.. C#.o)$ *ha!# la!%i)/ %hrou/h %h# !i2%i#! +i%)#!!#$ a lai!!#B?&air# a**roa.h %o i)$u!%riali!a%io) +i%h li%%l# .o)!i$#ra%io) &or !o.ial +#l&ar#. C#v#)%i#! +i%)#!!#$ ma!!iv# !%a%# i)v#!%m#)% i) h#av' i)$u!%r', h#av' #)/i)##ri)/, !%##l, &#r%ili!#r!, *#%ro.h#mi.al! a)$ ma.hi)# %ool!. ;u% i) %h# 90=! %h# %r#)$ ha! a/ai) b##) r#v#r!#$
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%o lai!!#B &air#. Gov#r)m#)% *oli.i#! ar# *ro i)v#!%m#)%, a)%ir#/ula%io) a)$ /#)#rall' i)$i&&#r#)% %o labour +#l&ar#. 4)$u!%riali!a%io) i) (a"i!%a) ha! *ro.##$#$ a% a !%#a$' *a.#, i).r#a!i)/ i%! !har# i) /ro!! )a%io)al *ro$u.% &rom 5u!% u)$#r %+o *#r.#)% %o 20 *#r.#)% i) 1965 a)$ %o 24 *#r.#)% i) 1988. 4)$u!%r' ha! /ro+) a% a) av#ra/# ra%# o& 6.4 *#r.#)% b#%+##) 1965 %o 1980 a)$ a% a ra%# o& 7.2 b#%+##) 1980 %o 1988. 4& o)# loo"! a% (a"i!%a) &rom %h# *oi)% o& vi#+ o& h#r u**#r .la!!#!, %hi)/! loo" &i)#. 3h#' hav# /ro+) #)ormou!l' ri.h. 3h#' liv# lavi!hl'. 3h#' hav# .o))#.%io)! )o% o)l' i) Whi%# -all bu% al!o i) Whi%# -ou!#. 3h#ir !o)! a)$ $au/h%#r! !#rv# a! *ro&#!!io)al! i) Worl$ ;a)", 460 a)$ ho!%! o& o%h#r i)%#r)a%io)al or/a)i!a%io)!. >v#r' '#ar %h#' !#)$ %h#ir !o)! a)$ $au/h%#r! i) %hou!a)$! (ov#r %#) %hou!a)$! #v#r' '#ar %o &i)#!% i)!%i%u%io)! o& l#ar)i)/ i) Am#ri.a a)$ >uro*#. 3h#' hav# !u..#!!&ull' u!#$ %h# (a"i!%a)i *a!!*or% %o lau).h %h# .ar##r! o& %h#ir o&&!*ri)/ a)'+h#r# %h#' .oul$ &louri!h. 3h#' !*#)$ %h#ir !umm#r! i) %#m*#ra%# .lima%#! a)$ r#%ur) %o !*#)$ %h# !u))' +i)%#r! i) (a"i!%a). (a"i!%a) ha! b##) /oo$ a)$ .o)%i)u#! %o b# /oo$ %o %h#m. 8oo"#$ a% &rom %h# *oi)% o& vi#+ o& %h# *ro&#!!io)al! %h# !am# *i.%ur# #m#r/#!. 4ll #$u.a%#$, u)%rai)#$ *ro&#!!io)al! hav# ma)a/#$ %o o..u*' *o!i%io)! i) a.a$#mia, r#!#ar.h or/a)i!a%io)!, .omm#r.#, i)$u!%r', .ivil a)$ mili%ar' b#auru.ra.' ma)a/#m#)%. (a"i!%a)i hav# #2.#ll#$ a! i)$ivi$ual!. A! !.i#)%i!%! ((ro&. Ab$u! Calam, %h# Nob#l 8aur#a%# , #)/i)##r!, $o.%or!, !*or%! m#) ( .ri."#%, !9ua!h, !)oo"#r, bri$/# %h#' ar# ")o+) %h# +orl$ ov#r. 3h# $ru/ a)$ arm !mu//l#r! ar# a! /oo$ a! %o b# &ou)$ a)'+h#r# i) %h# +orl$. 4% i! a! )a%io) %ha% %h#' $o )o% &ar# !o +#ll. 3h# r#a!o)! ar# )um#rou!. ;u% %h# mai) r#a!o) i! %ha% or$i)ar' *#o*l#, %h# *#a!a)%!, %h# +or"#r!, *#%%' %ra$#r!, ar%i!a)!, u)#m*lo'#$ a)$ %h# u)$#r #m*lo'#$ ar# )o% or/a)i!#$. 3h#ir i)%#r#!%! a)$ +#ll b#i)/ i! )o% o) %h# a/#)$a o& %h# mai) *oli%i.al *ar%i#!. A)l#!! %h#' ar# or/a)i!#$ a)$ %h#ir a!*ira%io)! a)$ $#!ir#! &or a 5u!% a)$ *ro!*#rou! li&# i) %hi! +orl$ ar# ar%i.ula%#$ +# +ill .o)%i)u# %o hav# mor# o& %h# !am#. 4)%#ll#.%ual! a)$ i$#a! ar# mo!% im*or%a)% bu% b' %h#m!#lv#! %h#' ar# u!#l#!!. 3h#' hav# %o b# a$o*%#$ b' *oli%i.al *ar%i#! a)$ !o.ial /rou*! a)$ *u% i)%o *ra.%i.#. 4) %ha% r#!*#.% a lo% o& *ro/r#!! ha! b##) ma$# i) %h# la!% &i&%' '#ar!. No+ #v#r' *ar%' a..#*%! %ha% #$u.a%io), h#al%h, +a%#r, #)#r/', %ra)!*or%, .ommu)i.a%io) a)$ #)%#r%ai)m#)% ha! %o b# *rovi$#$ %o all %h# *#o*l#. 3h# *#o*l# hav# %o #)!ur# %ha% *oli%i.al *ar%i#! $#liv#r o) %h#ir *romi!#!. 4& $#mo.ra.' i! allo+#$ %o +or" b' %h# )o) #l#.%#$ i)!%i%u%io)! %o &u).%io) u)hi)$#r#$ (a"i!%a)i *#o*l# +ill #v#)%uall' a.hi#v# %h# !o.i#%' %h#' hav# $r#am#$ !i).# lo)/. 8#% u! )o% $#!*air.
(REPRINTED FROM DAWN NOV. 1996

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'he idea o( Pa<istan

=" hahid /a+ed =ur<i ,-/-10th Sept. 2!!' "F.C. cannot $e any dou$t that Pa9istan is e%periencin# a difficult period. "he crisis throu#h which the country is passin# in its si%th decade as an independent state is perhaps the most difficult it has seen in its e%ceptionally tur$ulent history. "he economy is in a state of freefall. It is hard to tell when and where it will sta$ilise. "he political situation is defined $y pro$lems that show personal am$ition prevailin# over national interests. It is hard to tell where this conflict will ta9e the country. "here is a war ra#in# in the countryJs northwest $etween the #overnmentJs forces and those who have an entirely different way of loo9in# at the way Pa9istani society and state should evolve. "he stateJs response is understanda$ly restrained. It does not wish to harm those who are cau#ht for reasons of #eo#raphy in the middle of this conflict. "he other side, motivated $y an ideolo#y in which it places total faith, is not inhi$ited. On the international front, RcontemptJ and Re%treme uneaseJ are perhaps the $est way to descri$e how the world sees Pa9istan. Fow it would react to the development ta9in# place in Pa9istan is hard to predict especially when the reins of power will $e transferred soon in -ashin#ton from one #roup of leaders to another. ,s a student of Pa9istanJs history S the evolution of its economy, its politics and its society S I have written e%tensively on this su$<ect. I donJt recall a period that e:uals the present. /ot even 1341 when the country was split into two. In its ori#inal form, Pa9istan was perhaps a non-sustaina$le political creation. It was an artifact that responded to a particular situation that developed under the lon# 2ritish rule. "here is no reason why the two Rwin#sJ of the country should have stayed to#ether. "he very fact that they were called Rwin#sJ su##ested that the countryJs $ody e%isted somewhere else. "hey had more differences than commonalities. It was economics that made the two win#s #o their separate ways. "he $ody to which these two win#s were attached was Islam $ut that did not prove to $e a stron# cohesive force. 2ut what a$out what is left of Pa9istan after 1341, a union of fairly disparate people who are still searchin# for some common #roundT I was invited to participate in a wor9shop on Pa9istanJs future in -ashin#ton a few wee9s a#o. ,n anthropolo#ist of Indian ori#in raised the :uestion a$out the Ridea of Pa9istanJ, which was the theme of a recent $oo9 $y Stephen ?ohen of the 2roo9in#s Institution in -ashin#ton. ,ccordin# to him, the idea centred on the $elief that a separate political entity was needed to protect the separateness of the )uslim community in 2ritish India. "his was the $asis of )ohammad ,li 1innahJs two-nation theory accordin# to which 2ritish India was inha$ited not $y one Indian nation $ut two, one Findu, the other )uslim.
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"his notion was countered $y what ,nil Ghilnani of 1ohns Fop9insJ School of ,dvanced International Studies 7S,IS8 calls the Ridea of IndiaJ. ,ccordin# to this, the concept of nationhood in an e%tremely diverse South ,sian populace should $e $ased on shared history rather than shared culture or reli#ion. Given these differences, the participant in the wor9shop posed a le#itimate :uestion5 had the idea of Pa9istan failedT She implied that the idea of India had succeeded. Since the :uestion was directed at me S one of the three Pa9istani participants at the wor9shop S I responded $y as9in# another :uestion. I as9ed if states need an idea S whether we could find an Ridea of /i#eriaJ, an Ridea of South ,fricaJ, an idea of R)alaysiaJ. )y counter :uestion as an answer drew a sceptical response. It was su##ested that it was fair to raise that :uestion for the states that were founded on the $asis of RideasJ rather than on that of colonial herita#e. /i#eria, South ,frica, )alaysia S the three e%amples I had used S were all products of colonial history. "he same is true for a num$er of countries in the )iddle .ast. Ira:, 1ordan, Be$anon, Syria and Saudi ,ra$ia are all the products of colonial history. "hey are not the conse:uence of RideasJ. Saudi ,ra$ia may $e an e%ception since its statehood does promote an ideolo#y. Given the current state of affairs in Pa9istan, #iven some of the o$servations made in the openin# para#raphs of this article, it is le#itimate to as9 the :uestion5 what is now the idea of Pa9istan. Institutional economics S a relatively new discipline pioneered $y ou#lass /orth, the /o$el Pri>e-winnin# economist S postulates that a #reat deal of human activity is #overned $y what it calls $elief systems. "hese systems are the product of historical accumulation. "hey are not static $ut, instead, are e%ceptionally dynamic. Fow would I apply this reasonin# to the case of Pa9istanT "he creation of Pa9istan was indeed $ased on an idea S 1innahJs two-nation theory S $ut many years have elapsed since that postulate was first put forward. "he concept that Pa9istan was needed to preserve the separate identity of the )uslim community of 2ritish India, may not have wor9ed to 9eep to#ether the two win#s of the country that were attached to the $ody of Findu India. 2ut history produces its own imperatives. 1innahJs two-nation theory is now 4! years old. It resulted in the partition of 2ritish India and the creation of two separate political entities. One of those split into two and what was once 2ritish India is now three separate states with their own histories and their own imperatives. "wo of them S 2an#ladesh and Pa9istan S are still searchin# for answers that would help them for#e the meanin# of nationhood. Fow should Pa9istan define itself at this critical <uncture in its historyT /otwithstandin# the $loody campai#n launched $y some stateless #roups, reli#ion canJt $e the $asis of Pa9istanJs nationhood. "here are too many different interpretations of what can $e called an Islamic state for Pa9istan to ris9 its future on that concept. &or the same reason, ethnicity canJt $e the definin# concept. -e have to $e pra#matic5 we need to define the Pa9istani identity and the Pa9istani idea on the $asis of #eo#raphy rather than on the $asis of culture and reli#ion. -hat is Pa9istan today is a piece of real estate occupied $y more than 2.( per cent of worldJs population that must find a way of pursuin#
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economic, political and social o$<ectives that serve the entire citi>enry. "his is the only way forward

>E) ?I>E Au/u!% 2008 !AN PAKISTAN S"RVIVE# YES$ IF%

3ami)/ %h# mili%ar', %h# &#u$al #li%# a)$ 4!lami. mili%a).' i! #!!#)%ial %o "##* %h# .ou)%r' %o/#%h#r. &' I. A. R()man 3ari9 Ali +a! )o% %h# &ir!% o)# %o *o!# %h# 9u#!%io), F<a) (a"i!%a) !urviv#DG +h#) h# .ho!# i% a! %h# %i%l# o& hi! !%u$' mor# %ha) 35 '#ar! a/o. Ci).# (a"i!%a) .am# i)%o b#i)/ a&%#r a )o)?%ra$i%io)al *ro.#!!, &#ar! o& i%! mor%ali%' hav# b##) a *ar% o& i%! *#o*l#H! *!'.h#. Cu..#!!iv# /ov#r)m#)%! hav# "#*% %hi! &#ar aliv# b' u!i)/ i% %o bla."mail %h# *#o*l# i)%o !urr#)$#ri)/ %o %h#ir i)#&&i.i#)% a)$ o**r#!!iv# rul#. -o+#v#r, a)2i#%i#! abou% (a"i!%a)H! li&# hav# )#v#r b##) !o !#v#r# a)$ +i$#!*r#a$ a! %h#' ar# %o$a' b#.au!# or$i)ar' .i%iB#)! .a) !## %h#ir .ou)%r' b#i)/ .au/h% i) a ba%%l# %ha% .oul$ *rov# &a%al. 3h# 9u#!%io) o& !urvival i! )o% #9uall' r#l#va)% %o all %h# %hr## .om*o)#)%! o& (a"i!%a)H! i$#)%i%' I %h# la)$, %h# *#o*l#, a)$ %h# !%a%#. 3h#r# .a) b# )o &#ar o& %h# $#mi!# o& %h# la)$ o& (a"i!%a). 4% ha! !urviv#$ %h# rava/#! o& %im# !i).# a)%i9ui%' a)$ i% +ill !urviv# +ha%#v#r ma' b#&all %h# !%a%# o& (a"i!%a). >v#) i& !om# *ar%! o& %hi! la)$, or #v#) %h# +hol# o& i%, /#% .ov#r#$ b' +a%#r, i% +ill o)l' b# !ubm#r/#$ bu% +ill )o% $i!a**#ar. Cimilarl', %h# *#o*l# +ill !urviv# a! %h#' hav# !urviv#$ .ou)%l#!! .o)vul!io)! ov#r %hou!a)$! o& '#ar!. 4% i! o)l' %h# !%a%# o& (a"i!%a) %ha% .a) b# !ub5#.% %o %h# la+! o& li&# a)$ $#a%h. 3h# (a"i!%a) !%a%# ha! b##) vul)#rabl# all alo)/ b#.au!# i% +a! bor) +i%h !#v#ral !#riou! i)%#r)al .o)%ra$i.%io)! %ha% r#9uir#$ #2%raor$i)ar' *oli%i.al #)/i)##ri)/. 0ir!%, i% a$o*%#$ %h# i$#al o& a mo$#r), $#mo.ra%i. a)$ a**ar#)%l' !#.ular *oli%', al%hou/h %h# $#ma)$ &or i%! .r#a%io) ha$ b##) ba!#$ o) %h# r#li/iou! i$#)%i%' o& %h# !ub.o)%i)#)%H! 6u!lim!. C#.o)$l', i% u*h#l$ a &#$#ral !%ru.%ur# i) %h#or' a)$ &ollo+#$ %h# .olo)ial mo$#l o& a u)i%ar' !%a%# i) *ra.%i.#. 3hir$l', i% a!!um#$ %ha% a $#mo.ra%i. !'!%#m .oul$ &louri!h i) a !o.i#%' !%##*#$ i) &#u$al .ul%ur#. 0our%hl', a lar/#r *ar% o& i%! *o*ula%io) +a! i) %h# $i!a$va)%a/#$ #a!%#r) +i)/ +hil# %h# ma)%l# o& *o+#r +a! a!!um#$ b' %h# *rivil#/#$ +#!%#r) +i)/ +i%h a !mall#r *o*ula%io). A)$, &i&%hl', %h# #v#)%! a%%#)$i)/ %h# bir%h o& (a"i!%a) a)$ %h# /lobal #)viro)m#)% $uri)/ i%! &orma%iv# '#ar! l#$ i% %o $#v#lo* a) ob!#!!io) +i%h !#.uri%' %o %h# )#/l#.% o& ma)' o%h#r r#9ui!i%#! o& a $#mo.ra%i. !%a%# o& .o)%#)%#$ .i%iB#)!. 3h# a..umula%#$ &ailur#! o& %h# .o)%roll#r! o& (a"i!%a)H! $#!%i)' i) %h# $i&&#r#)% *ha!#! o& i%! li&# hav# /#)#ra%#$ a) u)*r#.#$#)%#$ !#)!# o& $#!*air amo)/ %h#
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*#o*l# %o$a'. ;u% b#&or# %r'i)/ %o &i/ur# ou% +ha% %h# &u%ur# hol$! &or (a"i!%a) i% ma' b# u!#&ul %o #2ami)# ho+ /rav# a)$ .om*l#2 %h# .hall#)/#! !%#mmi)/ &rom %h# .o)%ra$i.%io)! m#)%io)#$ hav# b#.om#. 3h# &ir!% .ri%i.al i!!u# &a.#$ b' (a"i!%a), #v#) b#&or# %h# .l#ri.!H vol%# &a.# i) .laimi)/ *ar#)%a/# o& %h# !%a%# +ho!# i$#a %h#' ha$ mali.iou!l' $#)ou).#$ a)$ !%ubbor)l' o**o!#$, +a! %h# ;#)/ali .i%iB#)!H a!!#r%io) o& %h#ir li)/ui!%i. a)$ .ul%ural i$#)%i%'. 3h# ma%%#r +a! m#!!#$ u* %horou/hl' a)$ o)# %hi)/ l#$ %o a)o%h#r. 3h# /ul& b#%+##) %h# %+o +i)/! /r#+ +i$#r a! %h# !%a%#H! &#$#ral *r#mi!#! +#r# .o)!i!%#)%l' r#*u$ia%#$ a)$ %h# $#mo.ra%i. ri/h%! o& %h# ma5ori%' *o*ula%io) +#r# arro/a)%l' r#5#.%#$. >v#)%uall' >a!% ;#)/al +a! &or.#$ ou% o& %h# (a"i!%a) !%a%#, bu% %h# .o)%ra$i.%io) b#%+##) %h# im*#ra%iv#! o& %h# &#$#ra%io) a)$ %h# rul#r!H *r#&#r#).# &or $#!*o%i. .#)%rali!m ()o% #v#) b#)#vol#)% .#)%rali!m ha! r#mai)#$ u)r#!olv#$. No l#!!o) ha! b##) l#ar)% &rom %h# &olli#! %ha% .au!#$ (a"i!%a)H! br#a"?u* i) 1971: i)$##$ %h# !%a%#H! a%%i%u$# %o+ar$ l#!! *o+#r&ul u)i%! ha! b#.om# hau/h%i#r a)$ #v#) mor# irra%io)al. 3o$a', %hr## ou% o& %h# &our u)i%! o& %h# &#$#ra%io) o& (a"i!%a) ar# mor# ali#)a%#$ &rom %h# .#)%r# %ha) #v#r b#&or#. 3h# i)!%i%u%io)! %ha% .oul$ hav# .#m#)%#$ %h# bo)$! o& &#$#ral u)i%' I %h# *arliam#)%, %h# <ou).il o& <ommo) 4)%#r#!%, %h# Na%io)al 0i)a).# <ommi!!io) a)$ %h# $#&#).# &or.#! I hav# all b#.om# !our.#! o& .l#ava/# a)$ .o)&li.%. Nobo$' .a) b# blam#$ &or $#.li)i)/ %o a..#*% b#%! o) %h# !urvival o& a &#$#ral !%a%# +ho!# .o)!%i%u#)%! "##* *ulli)/ i) $i&&#r#)% $ir#.%io)!. -o+#v#r, %h# i!!u# o& %h# &#$#ra%i)/ u)i%!H ri/h%! ha! b##) !u*#r!#$#$ i) !#riou!)#!! b' %h# ri!# o& r#li/iou! *r#%#)$#r! %o *o+#r. Whil# %h# &ou)$i)/ &a%h#r $i$ ar/u# %ha% (a"i!%a) +a! )o% m#a)% %o b# a labora%or' o& &ai%h, %h#' u)$#rmi)#$, +i%%i)/l' or u)+i%%i)/l', #v#r' !#.ular !%ra)$ o& )a%io)al u)i%'. 3h#ir !u..#!!or! ro!# %o *o+#r b' &lou%i)/ $#mo.ra%i. au%hori%' a)$ r#li#$ o) r#li/iou! rh#%ori. %o l#/i%imi!# %h#ir r#/im#!. ;#i)/ u)&amiliar %h#m!#lv#! +i%h %h# lib#ral %ra$i%io) o& 4!lam, %h#' allo+#$ %h# .o)!#rva%iv# .l#ri.! %o $omi)a%# %h# r#li/iou! $i!.our!#. >a.h )#+ .o)!%i%u%io)al %#2% #)lar/#$ %h# *oli%i.al !*a.# &or %h# &or.#! o& %h#o.ra.'. G#)#ral Jia?ul?-a9H! $#.i!io) %o *#rv#r% %h# .o).#*% o& 5iha$ a)$ i)!%all %h# .o)!#rva%iv# %ribal! a! $i!*#)!#r! o& !ov#r#i/) ri/h%! ma$# i% *o!!ibl# &or %h#m %o &ir!% .laim a ri/h% %o im*o!# %h#ir +ri% i) %h#ir mou)%ai)ou! hi$#ou%! a)$ &i)all' %o !#iB# (a"i!%a) or a *ar% o& i% &or %h#m!#lv#!. A% %h# mom#)%, (a"i!%a)H! arm#$ &or.#! alo)# a**#ar %o hav# %h# .a*a.i%' %o %h+ar% %h#m bu% )o o)# .a) !a' a! %o ho+ lo)/
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%hi! .ov#r +ill b# availabl# %o %h# b#l#a/u#r#$ !%a%#. 3h# !%a%#H! +#a")#!! i) &a.i)/ %h# %hr#a% &rom %h# )or%h, +hi.h iro)i.all' u!#$ %o b# i)vo"#$ &or 9ui%# a lo)/ %im#, b' 6u!lim! a)$ )o)?6u!lim! ali"#, %o &ri/h%#) %h# rul#r! o& %h# !ub?.o)%i)#)%, ha! b##) .om*ou)$#$ b' i%! &ailur# %o r#!olv# %h# $#mo.ra%i. &or.#!H .o)%ra$i.%io) +i%h %h# &#u$al !o.ial !%ru.%ur#! o) %h# o)# ha)$ a)$ %h# *ra#%oria) a$v#)%ur#r! o) %h# o%h#r. 3h# *oli%i.al a.%or! r#!*o)!ibl# &or /ui$i)/ %h# !hor% a)$ lar/#l' *ai)l#!! !%ru//l# &or (a"i!%a) ha$ #2%r#m#l' limi%#$ #2*o!ur# %o $#mo.ra%i. i$#a!. 6a)' o& %h#m vi#+#$ %h# .r#a%io) o& a )#+ !%a%# %hrou/h $#mo.ra%i.?!ou)$i)/ $#vi.#! a! a m#a)! o& *#r*#%ua%i)/ %h#ir &#u$al *rivil#/#!. 3h# &#u$al! %ha% ha$ b##) %rai)#$ a! %h# .olo)ial *o+#rH! au2iliar' &or.# ha$ li%%l# $i&&i.ul%' i) /uara)%##i)/ %h#ir vi.%ori#! i) #l#.%oral .o)%#!%!. Co u!#&ul +a! &#u$al .ul%ur# i) $#*rivi)/ %h# ma!!#! o& %h#ir ri/h% %o *o+#r %ha% #v#) )o)?&#u$al! %ha% +#r# .a%a*ul%#$ i)%o !#a%! o& *o+#r ra) %h# !%a%# a)$ i%! #.o)om' i) %h# !%'l# o& &#u$al!. (a"i!%a) r#mai)! a &#u$al !%a%# +hi.h i! *r#*ar#$ %o .om*romi!# +i%h a)' .laima)% %o !har# i) *o+#r #2.#*% %h# $i!a$va)%a/#$ .i%iB#)r'. ;' r#&u!i)/ %o li9ui$a%# &#u$ali!m, (a"i!%a) ha! .o)$#m)#$ i%!#l& %o %h# !%a%u! o& a)a.hro)i!m. A% %h# !am# %im#, %h# !#.uri%' a**ara%u! .r#a%#$ a)$ mai)%ai)#$ b' %h# *#o*l# b' !a.ri&i.i)/ %h#ir ri/h%! %o #$u.a%io), h#al%h a)$ ma%#rial +#ll?b#i)/ b#.am# au%o)omou! +i%hi) a &#+ '#ar! o& i)$#*#)$#).#. ;' %h# #)$ o& %h# &i&%i#! i% ha$ )o% o)l' b#.om# &r## o& %h# /ov#r)m#)%H! a$mi)i!%ra%iv# a)$ &i)a).ial .o)%rol!, i% mov#$ i)%o %h# !%a%#H! $rivi)/ !#a% a)$ ha! r#&u!#$ %o l#av# i% #2.#*% &or !hor% va.a%io)!. 3h# r#*#a%#$ a!!aul%! b' %h# arm#$ &or.#! hav# ma$# i% im*o!!ibl# &or *oli%i.al *ar%i#! %o a.9uir# ma%uri%' o& mi)$ or b#.om# *ro&i.i#)% i) !%a%#.ra&%. 3hi! $#&i.i#).' o& %h# .ivilia) #!%abli!hm#)% ha! r#i)&or.#$ %h# mili%ar' .am*H! b#li#& i) i%! mo)o*ol' ov#r +i!$om a)$ *a%rio%i!m. 4% al+a'! .o)!i$#r#$ i%!#l& i)$#*#)$#)% o& %h# !%a%# i) $#&#).# ma%%#r!, )o+ i% .hoo!#! %o h#l* %h# .ivil /ov#r)m#)% b#a% o&& %hr#a%! %o )a%io)al i)%#/ri%' o)l' o) i%! o+) %#rm! a)$ i) a ma))#r o& i%! o+) .hoo!i)/. Do#! %h# &or#/oi)/ )arra%iv# o& %h# (a"i!%a) !%a%#H! *li/h% l#av# a)' room &or ho*# o& i%! !urvivalD E#!, i% i! *o!!ibl# %o !u!%ai) ho*# &or %+o r#a!o)!. Firs*, !%a%#! ar# ")o+) %o !urviv# &or lo)/ #v#) +h#) a&&li.%#$ +i%h $r#a$#$ $i!#a!#!, o)l' %h#' b#.om# irr#l#va)% %o %h#ir ha*l#!! .i%iB#)! u)%il #2%#r)al or i)%#r)al &or.#!, or a .ombi)a%io) o& bo%h, a**#ar o) %h# !.#)# %o !av# %h# !%a%# &or a
30

*ar%i.ular i)%#r#!% or r#*la.# i% +i%h a )#+ !%a%# or +i%h mor# %ha) o)# !%a%#. 0or%u)a%#l', %ha% mom#)% $o#! )o% !##m %o hav# arriv#$ a! '#%. ,)# o& %h# r#a!o)! i! %h# $i!.ov#r' b' *o+#r&ul )#i/hbour! o& %h#ir !%a"# i) %h# i)%#/ri%' o& %h# (a"i!%a) !%a%#. >2.#*% &or !om# *urbli)$ %a.%i.ia)! ma!9u#ra$i)/ a! mili%ar' !%ra%#/i!%!, 4ra), 4)$ia, <#)%ral A!ia a)$ <hi)a hav# am*l# r#a!o) %o b# +ar' o& %h# ri!# o& a) a//r#!!iv#l' Cu))i, %ribal 5iha$i !%a%# ov#r (a"h%u) %#rri%ori#! i) A&/ha)i!%a) a)$ (a"i!%a). >v#) %h# (a"h%u)!, #2.#*% *#rha*! &or %h# m#r.#)ari#! amo)/ %h#m, ma' )o% +i!h %o b# %hro+) ba." mor# %ha) a &#+ $#.a$#!. S(+,n-l', %h# !%a%# o& $i!arra' a)$ a)ar.h' %ha% i! .au!i)/ *#o*l# a.u%# $i!%r#!! i! )o% $u# %o la." o& %h# (a"i!%a) !%a%#H! *o%#)%ial &or !urvival. 4% i! lar/#l' $u# %o )o)?u%ili!a%io) o& %h# )a%io)al r#!our.#! a)$ i)!%rum#)%! o& r#.ov#r' a)$ %h# *o!!ibili%' o& %h#ir *ro*#r #m*lo'm#)% .a))o% b# rul#$ ou%. A $i!*a!!io)a%# a)al'!i! o& %h# *robl#m! (a"i!%a) i! &a.i)/ +ill !ho+ %ha% all o& %h#m, #2.#*% &or %h# !i#/# b' %h# 5iha$i!, .a) b# r#!olv#$ i& %h# variou! *ar%i#! i)volv#$ .a) .o)vi).# %h#m!#lv#! %ha% i% +ill b# im*o!!ibl# %o *ro%#.% %h#ir /rou* i)%#r#!%! i) %h# #v#)% o& %h# !%a%#H! /#%%i)/ +#a"#r or .om*l#%#l' $'!&u).%io)al. A !#riou! a)$ !i).#r#l' mou)%#$ #&&or% %o r#mov# %h# &#$#ra%i)/ u)i%!H /ri#va).#! .a) !%ill r#!%or# %h# &#$#ra%io) %o h#al%h. Wha% )##$! %o b# $o)# i! lar/#l' ")o+). 3h# *rovi).#! $#!#rv# ma2imum au%o)om', a &air N0< a+ar$, a) #&&#.%iv# <ou).il o& <ommo) 4)%#r#!%, !%o**a/# o& all mili%ar' o*#ra%io)! %ha% ar# ob5#.%#$ %o b' %h# *o*ula%io)! .o).#r)#$, a)$ aba)$o)m#)% o& +ha% ar# *#r.#iv#$ a! *la)! a)$ m#a!ur#! %o /rab la)$ a)$ o%h#r )a%ural r#!our.#!. 3h# &#$#ra%io) +ill b#.om# !%ro)/#r a)$ mor# viabl# i& %h# *rovi).#! ar# allo+#$ $u# &r##$om %o $#v#lo* %h#m!#lv#! a)$ %o #)5o' %h#ir $u# !har# i) %h# ru))i)/ o& %h# .#)%r# a! +#ll. ,).# i% i! r#ali!#$ %ha% %h# !%a%# .a))o% ov#r.om# %h# $iv#r!# .hall#)/#! .o)&ro)%i)/ i% +i%hou% %h# %ru!% a)$ a.%iv# !u**or% o& %h# *#o*l#, i% ma' )o% b# im*o!!ibl# %o bri$/# %h# ma)' i)%ra?!%a%# $ivi!io)!. A% %h# mom#)%, %h#r# i! a !har* $ivi!io) +i%hi) %h# ruli)/ .oali%io) I %h# .oali%io) *ar%i#! a)$ %h# r#!% o& %h# *oli%i.al a.%or! .a))o% !## a .ommo) )a%io)al /oal, a)$ %h# .ha!m b#%+##) %h# .ivilia) hor$# a)$ %h# mili%ar' #!%abli!hm#)% i! *o!i)/ %h# !i)/l# /r#a%#!% %hr#a% %o )a%io)al !#.uri%'. Wha%#v#r i% ma' %a"#, %h# o)/oi)/ &i/h% b#%+##) %h# variou! #l#m#)%! o& %h# !%a%# mu!% b# !%o**#$. Cu..#!! i) %hi! #)$#avour +ill #)abl# %h# !%a%# %o har)#!! i%! *o%#)%ial &or r#5uv#)a%io). -o+#v#r, u)i%' o& *ur*o!# amo)/ i%! or/a)! alo)# +ill )o% #)abl# %h# !%a%# %o +i) *ubli. ba."i)/. 3ha% +ill b# *o!!ibl# o)l' %hrou/h %h# mobili!a%io) o& %h# ma!!#! b' %h# *oli%i.al *ar%i#!. A% %h# mom#)%, %h# *oli%i.al *ar%i#! ar# %o%all' ou% o& a.%io). 6##%i)/! o& *arliam#)%ar' *ar%i#!, i& h#l$ a% all, ar# m#a)i)/l#!! /#%? %o/#%h#r! a)$ %h#r# i! li%%l# .ommu)i.a%io) a)$ .o)!ul%a%io) +i%h %h# ra)" a)$ &il#. A) o*#) a)$ .o)%i)uou! $ialo/u# b#%+##) %h# !%a%# a)$ %h# *#o*l# i! o)# o& %h# &or#mo!% r#9ui!i%#! &or %h# !%a%#H! !urvival a)$ *ro/r#!!. A) #&&#.%iv# mobili!a%io) o& %h# *#o*l# i! al!o )#.#!!ar' %o #)$ %h# .o)&u!io) i) %h#
31

ruli)/ #li%# o) %h# mo!% #&&#.%iv# r#!*o)!# %o %ribal mili%a).' o*#ra%i)/ u)$#r %h# .ov#r o& &ai%h. A /r#a%#r *ar% o& %h# *o*ula%io) r#5#.%! %h# mili%a)%!H %h#!i! a)$ i! .o)vi).#$ %ha% %h#ir a..#!!io) %o *o+#r +ill #)%ail i)$#!.ribabl# mi!#r' %o %h# *#o*l#, /#)#ra%io) a&%#r /#)#ra%io). ;u% %ho!# hol$i)/ %hi! vi#+ ar# $oi)/ )o%hi)/ %o av#r% $i!a!%#r. 3ho!# o) %h# o%h#r !i$# !##m %o b#li#v# %ha% %h# mili%a)%! ar# )o% i) %h# +ro)/ a)$ %ha% %h#' .a) ri$# %h# %i/#r. A)l#!! %h#!# *#o*l# .a) am#)$ %h#ir %hi)"i)/, %h#' ar# o)l' arra)/i)/ a &#a!% &or %h# %i/#r. 3h# !%a%#H! !urvival hi)/#! o) #volvi)/ a ra%io)al r#!*o)!# %o %h# %ribal o)!lau/h%. All %hi! ma' i)vi%# a .omm#)% %ha% +ha% ha! b##) o&&#r#$ i! a +i!h li!% a)$ )o% a *ra.%i.al +a' %o !alva%io). 3hi! +ill )o% b# +holl' %ru# b#.au!# )o !i%ua%io) i! #v#r b#'o)$ .orr#.%io) i& *#o*l# %a"# ma%%#r! i)%o %h#ir ha)$!. (a"i!%a) .a) !urviv# i& %h#r# ar# #)ou/h *#o*l# arou)$ +ho $#.i$# %o #)!ur# %ha% i% $o#! !urviv#.

'he (uture di+ide

2y ,yesha Siddi:a SO).O/. once as9ed his friend what he would do if a ti#er entered his room. "he friend replied that whatever had to $e done would $e done $y the ti#er, so why as9 him. "his <o9e fits in well with the current state of 6S-Pa9istan relations. "he media was first e%cited $y Gen GayaniJs statement a$out the army not toleratin# ,merican intrusions into Pa9istanJs territory and then $y President PardariJs visit to the 6G and his forthcomin# one to the 6S. "here are many who $elieve that Islama$adJs forthri#ht reaction to the 6S attac9s on the tri$al areas will stop the incursions. "he :uestion is that will these statements and visits have any effectT ,nd will it end the warT "he answer is a simple no. -ashin#ton will not $e impressed $y Islama$adJs reaction for the followin# reasons. &irst, 6S policyma9ers 9now that #iven Islama$adJs dependence on -ashin#ton there is nothin# much it can do other than issue statements. "he few demonstrations in Peshawar or other parts of the country constitute minimal cost which is not to $e $orne $y the 6S $ut $y the new #overnment in Pa9istan. Other than this, there is no evidence of any intense reaction. "he Pa9istani #overnment is $e##in# for more weapon systems such as the up#raded &-10s, and there is not even any $oycott of sym$ols of the ,merican economy includin# well-9nown eateries. "he :ueues for ,merican visas have not diminished either. Second, the ,merican #overnment 9nows that Pa9istanJs so-called li$eral elite and many amon# the Pa9istani e%patriate community would $e happy with the removal of the "ali$an or other militants. If the Pa9istan ,rmy canJt do it then let the 6S forces achieve the o$<ective. )oreover, eliminatin# this threat would fundamentally read<ust the militaryJs
32

power vis-U-vis the civilian esta$lishment $ecause it would essentially mean ropin# in the intelli#ence a#encies as well. "his means that Pa9istani society is divided and will not $e a$le to pose an e%tensive threat to ,merican attac9s. "hird, Pa9istanJs poor are so depressed $y their poverty that despite their unhappiness with the attac9s there is nothin# much they would $e a$le to do that would cost the 6S heavily. &inally, considerin# that -ashin#ton has played a si#nificant role in restorin# democracy in Pa9istan, the new #overnment will not do anythin# e%cessive to counter the ,merican position. "he /CO is owed to ,merican assistance. "herefore, it too9 )r Pardari :uite a while to issue a statement condemnin# the attac9s. &rom -ashin#tonJs perspective, it is simply protectin# ,merican security interests. .ven if the ,mericans are told that they were responsi$le for creatin# the threat of militancy, this harpin# on the ori#ins of the threat would not solve matters from their standpoint. "he ,merican-cum-Pa9istani li$eral point of view is that since ne#otiations will stren#then the militants, who use peace as an opportunity to demand the implementation of the Sharia, war is the only way to contain matters. "he ,merican war, however, will further wea9en Pa9istan $ecause it will clearly divide state forces and society. "here is a division within the esta$lishment re#ardin# the threat and how it must $e handled. Cesultantly, we are now cau#ht in a :uandary re#ardin# the future of the threat. Should we handle it ourselves or let the ,merican forces do so for usT -ashin#ton had $een threatenin# Islama$ad with direct intervention $ut was $ein# pushed $ac9 up until now with the ar#ument that such an action would desta$ilise Pa9istan. Favin# helped remove Perve> )usharraf, who had lost credi$ility internally, -ashin#ton now $elieves it can conduct a military operation directly, leavin# the political #overnment to $ear the cost. ,fter all, there is hardly any evidence of a direct cost to ,merican security in launchin# a military operation. Favin# returned to democracy after nine years, society will remain divided on the issue of pushin# the elected #overnment to ta9e serious measures to stop -ashin#ton. "he calculation is that patrona#e politics will wor9 :uite well to minimise the reaction. People will $e too concerned a$out puttin# food on their ta$les than doin# anythin# serious to stop ,merican action. So, Gordon 2rown can happily put the responsi$ility in the lap of $oth ,f#hanistan and Pa9istan whose leaders are still too wea9 to sort out the pro$lem. Cecently, a senior Pa9istani $ureaucrat told me the #ood news that Pa9istan was now movin# towards a sta$le future. Fis assessment was that a decision had $een made $y the countryJs rulin# elite that Pa9istan has to $e sta$ilised throu#h the partial restoration of democracy and the <udiciary and the elimination of militants and e%tremists. Such a calculation is lin9ed to another assessment that the more capa$le upper middle and middle classes of the country want a li$eral social system that would $e a complete departure from the one introduced $y Gen Piaul Fa:. Such an assessment perceives the middle class as $ein# li$eral and pro#ressive. Fowever, this in itself is an erroneous calculation that does not consider the fact that we all tend to for#et a$out a lar#e proportion of the middle class that is hi#hly conservative in its
33

world view. "he middle class in Pa9istan is not confined to #raduates who have :ualified from a$road or those wor9in# in the /GO sector or ma9in# their millions wor9in# as consultants for multilateral aid donors. It also comprises the trader-merchant class and similar #roups that show a very conservative mindset. -hat does one ma9e of the numerous affluent shop9eepers in Islama$ad and other cities and towns who fund <ihad in the :uest for spiritual for#iveness or those who fund militants and madressahs $ecause, accordin# to them, orthodo% Islam is the only way to ne#otiate power in a politically sta#nant societyT "hese people mi#ht not <eopardise their interests in the short term as they continue to put faith in militancy and reli#ious e%tremism. 2ut it does mean that the threat of militancy is not li9ely to dissipate in the medium to lon# term and that what we will #et is a more divided society. "here are those who support ,merican action or 9eep silent and others turn more adamant in their disli9e of the 6S and the -est in #eneral. In short, -ashin#tonJs direct intervention is li9ely to prolon# the conflict and deepen its roots in Pa9istani state and society. "here is enou#h poverty and underdevelopment in this country to provide fresh recruits for future <ihad. "olerance, of course, would $e one of the primary casualties of military action. "his is a conflict that mi#ht not end with dialo#ue or war. It is difficult to turn $ac9 the cloc9. "he writer is an independent strate#ic and political analyst. ayesha.i$dV#mail.com DA)>%17th ept# 2008

'he (ruit o( h"pocris"

2y 1oseph Sti#lit> FO6S.S of cards, chic9ens comin# home to roost S pic9 your cliche. "he new low in the financial crisis, which has prompted comparisons with the 1323 -all Street crash, is the fruit of a pattern of dishonesty on the part of financial institutions, and incompetence on the part of policyma9ers. -e had $ecome accustomed to the hypocrisy. "he $an9s re<ect any su##estion they should face re#ulation, re$uff any move towards anti-trust measures S yet when trou$le stri9es, all of a sudden they demand state intervention5 they must $e $ailed out; they are too $i#, too important to $e allowed to fail. .ventually, however, we were always #oin# to learn how $i# the safety net was. ,nd a si#n of the limits of the 6S &ederal Ceserve and treasuryJs willin#ness to rescue comes with the collapse of the investment $an9 Behman 2rothers, one of the most famous -all Street names. "he $i# :uestion always centres on systemic ris95 to what e%tent does the collapse of an institution imperil the financial system as a wholeT -all Street has always $een :uic9 to
34

overstate systemic ris9 S ta9e, for e%ample, the 133+ )e%ican financial crisis S $ut loath to allow e%amination of their own dealin#s. Bast wee9 the 6S treasury secretary, Fenry Paulson, <ud#ed there was sufficient systemic ris9 to warrant a #overnment rescue of mort#a#e #iants &annie )ae and &reddie )ac; $ut there was not sufficient systemic ris9 seen in Behman. "he present financial crisis sprin#s from a catastrophic collapse in confidence. "he $an9s were layin# hu#e $ets with each other over loans and assets. ?omple% transactions were desi#ned to move ris9 and dis#uise the slidin# value of assets. In this #ame there are winners and losers. ,nd itJs not a >ero-sum #ame, itJs a ne#ative-sum #ame5 as people wa9e up to the smo9e and mirrors in the financial system, as people #row averse to ris9, losses occur; the mar9et as a whole plummets and everyone loses. &inancial mar9ets hin#e on trust, and that trust has eroded. BehmanJs collapse mar9s at the very least a powerful sym$ol of a new low in confidence, and the rever$erations will continue. "he crisis in trust e%tends $eyond $an9s. In the #lo$al conte%t, there is dwindlin# confidence in 6S policyma9ers. ,t 1ulyJs G' meetin# in Fo99aido the 6S delivered assurances that thin#s were turnin# around at last. "he wee9s since have done nothin# $ut confirm any #lo$al mistrust of #overnment e%perts. Fow seriously, then, should we ta9e comparisons with the crash of 1323T )ost economists $elieve we have the monetary and fiscal instruments and understandin# to avoid collapse on that scale. ,nd yet the I)& and the 6S treasury, to#ether with central $an9s and finance ministers from many other countries, are capa$le of supportin# the sort of NrescueL policies that led Indonesia to economic disaster in 133'. )oreover, it is difficult to have faith in the policy wherewithal of a #overnment that oversaw the utter mismana#ement of the war in Ira: and the response to Furricane Gatrina. If any administration can turn this crisis into another depression, it is the 2ush administration. ,mericaJs financial system failed in its two crucial responsi$ilities5 mana#in# ris9 and allocatin# capital. "he industry as a whole has not $een doin# what it should $e doin# S for instance creatin# products that help ,mericans mana#e critical ris9s, such as stayin# in their homes when interest rates rise or house prices fall S and it must now face chan#e in its re#ulatory structures. Ce#retta$ly, many of the worst elements of the 6S financial system S to%ic mort#a#es and the practices that led to them S were e%ported to the rest of the world. It was all done in the name of innovation, and any re#ulatory initiative was fou#ht away with claims that it would suppress that innovation. "hey were innovatin#, all ri#ht, $ut not in ways that made the economy stron#er. Some of ,mericaJs $est and $ri#htest were devotin# their talents to #ettin# around standards and re#ulations desi#ned to ensure the efficiency of the economy and the safety of the $an9in# system. 6nfortunately, they were far too successful, and we are all S homeowners, wor9ers, investors, ta%payers S payin# the price. "he writer is recipient of the 2!!1 /o$el pri>e in economics. S "he Guardian, Bondon
35

Gloomy About Globalization

By Robert Skidelsky
Making Globalization Work by Joseph E. Stiglitz Norton, 358 pp., $26.95; $15.95 (p per!

1.
Making Globalization Work is the thir" o# Joseph Stiglitz$s pop%l r, n" pop%list, boo&s.'1( )i&e Je##rey S *hs, Stiglitz is n e*ono+ist t%rne" pre *her, one o# ne, bree" o# se*%l r e- ngelists pro"%*e" by the # ll o# *o++%nis+. Stiglitz , nts to stop ri*h *o%ntries #ro+ e.ploiting poor *o%ntries ,itho%t " + ging the springs o# ,e lth/*re tion. 0n th t sense he is *l ssi* so*i l "e+o*r t. 1is +ission ry #er-or, tho%gh, is -ery 2+eri* n. 3S -ing the 4l net,3 one o# this ne, boo&$s *h pter he "ings, *o%l" h -e been its title. Stiglitz is in # -or o# glob liz tion5,hi*h he "e#ines s 3the *loser e*ono+i* integr tion o# the *o%ntries o# the ,orl".3 1e *riti*izes the , ys it h s been "one. 6he 3r%les o# the g +e,3 he ,rites, h -e been l rgely set by 7S *orpor te interests. 6r "e gree+ents h -e + "e the poorest ,orse o## n" *on"e+ne" tho%s n"s to "e th thro%gh 208S. 9%ltin tion l *orpor tions h -e strippe" poor *o%ntries o# their n t%r l reso%r*es n" le#t en-iron+ent l "e- st tion. :estern b n&s h -e b%r"ene" poor *o%ntries ,ith %ns%st in ble "ebt. 9%*h o# this is ,ell s i". 2ltho%gh it is not ne,, it be rs repe ting. ;%t the + in proble+ t present is not ho, to + &e glob liz tion # irer #or poor *o%ntries. 0t is ho, to + &e it less -ol tile; n" to re+o-e the thre t it poses #or poor n" +i""le/ in*o+e people in ri*h *o%ntries5those -oters ,ho h -e the po,er to "er il it. 2nti/ glob liz tion senti+ent is ri*h/*o%ntry pheno+enon. 0t is r ther biz rre, there#ore, to ,rite boo& bo%t + &ing glob liz tion ,or& th t p ys so little ttention to the *on*erns o# people in ri*h *o%ntries.
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6his is the +ore regrett ble be* %se Stiglitz$s te*hni* l ,or&, #or ,hi*h he got Nobel 4rize in e*ono+i*s, is bo%t + r&et # il%res typi* l o# "e-elope" e*ono+ies. 6he 3Sh piro/Stiglitz3 +o"el e.pl ins ,hy , ges * nnot be s%##i*iently #le.ible to + int in *ontin%o%s #%ll e+ploy+ent5 n insight th t *o%l" h -e been pro#it bly pplie" to the e##e*ts o# lo,/, ge *o+petition #ro+ E st 2si . ;%t, s in his other ,ritings on glob liz tion, Stiglitz h s been pri+ rily in#l%en*e" by his e.perien*e s *hie# e*ono+ist o# the :orl" ; n& in the 199<s. 6his *on-in*e" hi+ th t : shington/inspire" poli*ies to pro+ote e*ono+i* "e-elop+ent in poor *o%ntries ,ere, in # *t, hin"ering it. 1e , s p rti*%l rly o%tr ge" by the response o# the 0ntern tion l 9onet ry =%n" "%ring the E st 2si n +elt"o,n in 199>?1998, ,hi*h, he s i", thro%gh its poorly *on*ei-e" b ilo%t e##orts, t%rne" slo,"o,ns into re*essions, n" re*essions into "epressions. 1is p%bli* *riti*is+s re s i" to h -e le" to his re+o- l #ro+ the :orl" ; n& in 2<<< t the behest o# then 7S 6re s%ry Se*ret ry ) ,ren*e S%++ers. 6his boo& e.p n"s on his e rlier *riti*is+ o# :estern "e-elop+ent poli*ies n" proposes so*i l/"e+o*r ti* ltern ti-es.

2.
0n Stiglitz$s -ie,, post, r tr "e regi+es5@266, :6A, N2=625h -e been he -ily ,eighte" in # -or o# the ri*h *o%ntries5by ,hi*h he +e ns pri+ rily the 7nite" St tes, E%rope, n" J p n. 6hese *o%ntries h -e %se" their gre ter &no,le"ge n" e*ono+i* po,er to o%t/b rg in poor *o%ntries. 6he ri*h *o%ntries h -e #or*e" liber liz tion o# tr "e5#irst in in"%stri l goo"s, then in s&ille" ser-i*es5on poor *o%ntries, ,hile ret ining their o,n gri*%lt%r l s%bsi"ies, n" non/t ri## b rriers (in the #or+ o# en-iron+ent l st n" r"s! th t p%nish poor/*o%ntry e.porters. 6here is no l *& o# e-i"en*e #or these *l i+s. Stiglitz proposes ne, prin*iple #or intern tion l tr "e gree+entsB re*ipro*ity +ong eC% ls, b%t "i##erenti tion bet,een *o%ntries in "i##erent st ges o# "e-elop+ent. Di*h *o%ntries, he rg%es, sho%l" open %p their + r&ets to poor ones ,itho%t "e+ n"ing re*ipro* l **ess to poor *o%ntries n" ,itho%t i+posing their o,n l bor or en-iron+ent l st n" r"s on those *o%ntries. 4oor *o%ntries sho%l" be llo,e" to &eep t ri##s. Di*h *o%ntries, ,hether in E%rope or North 2+eri* , sho%l" ph se o%t gri*%lt%r l s%bsi"ies. 6hey sho%l" en*o%r ge the i++igr tion o# %ns&ille" l bor. 6hey sho%l" re#r in #ro+ + &ing bil ter l tr "e gree+ents, ,hi*h llo, spe*i l interests to oper te in the " r&. 6r%e eno%gh, he *on*e"es, ll this +ight le " to Eob losses in ri*h *o%ntries, b%t these sho%l" be *o+pens te" by 3better "E%st+ent ssist n*e, stronger s #ety nets, n" better + *ro/e*ono+i* + n ge+ent3 s ,ell s 3+ore in-est+ent in te*hnology n" e"%* tion.3 0n -ie, o# the politi* l obst *les to s%*h *o+pens tory progr +, this is re+ r& bly * - lier tre t+ent o# the biggest ,orry # *ing ri*h/*o%ntry ,or&ers, to ,hi*h 0 sh ll ret%rn. Stiglitz -igoro%sly tt *&s 6D04s53tr "e/rel te" spe*ts o# intelle*t% l property rights.3 6D04s, he rg%es, h -e 3i+pose" on the entire ,orl" the "o+in nt
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intelle*t% l property regi+e in the 7nite" St tes n" E%rope, s it is to" y.3 Ne, "r%gs *o%l" s -e +illions o# li-es in poor *o%ntries, b%t they re %n ##or" ble be* %se they re prote*te" by p tents th t llo, the "r%g *o+p nies to *h rge +onopoly pri*es #or perio" o# t,enty ye rs or +ore. ;y in*l%"ing p tent prote*tion in the :orl" 6r "e Arg niz tion, he ,rites, 2+eri* n n" E%rope n negoti tors signe" 3"e th , rr nt #or tho%s n"s o# people in the poorest *o%ntries o# the ,orl".3 4h r+ *e%ti* l *o+p nies sho%l" be #or*e" to sell li#e/preser-ing "r%gs to poor *o%ntries t ne r *ost5or # *e *o+p%lsory li*ensing o# generi* "r%gs th t * n be pro"%*e" by, n" tr "e" bet,een, "e-eloping *o%ntries. Stiglitz lso , nts to gi-e poor *o%ntries re-erse prote*tion g inst ,h t he * lls "r%g *o+p nies$ 3bio/ pir *y35e.ploit tion o# the tr "ition l pl nt/b se" +e"i*ines o# poor *o%ntries ,itho%t p ying #or the+. Stiglitz r ises the interesting C%estion o# ,hether, or ho, +%*h, p tent prote*tion is nee"e" s sp%r to inno- tion, n" in ,h t #iel"s. 6here is * se #or rg%ing th t s%*h prote*tion re, r"s tri-i l inno- tions, n" slo,s "o,n +ore #%n" +ent l ones by ere*ting b rriers to entry into the + r&et. 0t is lso tr%e th t 208S h s shr%n& li#e e.pe*t n*y in so%thern 2#ri* n *o%ntries li&e ;ots, n , Feny , Gi+b b,e, 9 l ,i, n" So%th 2#ri* . 1o,e-er, Stiglitz is ,rong to single o%t 6D04s s the + in obst *le to the %se o# ntiretro-ir l "r%gs. 2s he re*ognizes, ;r zil, nother 208S/r - ge" *o%ntry, si+ply "isreg r"e" the 6D04s regi+e n" st rte" + n%# *t%ring ntiretro-ir l "r%gs on its o,n. 0n So%th 2#ri* , by *ontr st, 1e lth 9inister 9 nto 6sh b l l /9si+ ng "eno%n*e" the "r%g ne-ir pine5%se" to pre-ent the tr ns+ission o# 10H #ro+ +other to *hil"5 s 3poison3 to So%th 2#ri* $s ,o+en. '2( Stiglitz *l i+s th t ri*h *o%ntries lso rob the poor o# their n t%r l reso%r*es. Deso%r*e e.ploit tion is the C%i*&est , y #or *o%ntry to gro,, pro-i"e" the reso%r*es ren$t stolen. 1o,e-er, n t%r l reso%r*es re e.h %stible, so %nless n e*ono+y e.p n"s beyon" its n t%r l reso%r*e b se, its * pit l r%ns "o,n e-en s its in*o+e gro,s. @o-ern+ents * n +itig te this o%t*o+e by - rio%s te*hni* l "e-i*es s%*h s the est blish+ent o# 3so-ereign ,e lth #%n"s3 th t 3s -e3 p rt o# the reso%r*es #or #%t%re gener tions. ;%t s%*h re+e"ies, Stiglitz rg%es, re + "e +ore "i##i*%lt be* %se +%ltin tion l *o+p nies *o+bine ,ith *orr%pt "o+esti* "i*t tors to rob the pop%l tions o# reso%r*e/ri*h *o%ntries o# the ,e lth th t *o%l" be theirs. 6he *l%ster o# re+e"ies Stiglitz proposes5+ ny o# the+ # +ili r5 re "esigne" to ens%re th t poor *o%ntries ,ith b%n" nt n t%r l reso%r*es get 3#%ll - l%e3 #or the reso%r*es e.tr *te". 1e "-o* tes, +ong other re#or+s, 3green3 **o%nting +etho"s th t llo, #or "epletion n" en-iron+ent l 3e.tern lities3 (s%*h s poll%tion o# the ir n" , ter!, #%ll "is*los%re o# roy lty p y+ents, n" *erti#i* tion o# origin to pre-ent tr "e in reso%r*es li&e "i +on"s #ro+ Sierr )eone #ro+ being %se" to #in n*e -iolent "o+esti* *on#li*ts. =oreign i" to poor *o%ntries sho%l" be re"%*e" by the +o%nt o# the intern l 3the#t3 o# reso%r*es by go-ern+ents or #oreign *orpor tions. 6hese +e s%res re*ognize the i+port n*e o# *h nging the in*enti-es o#
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ho+e go-ern+ents in their "e lings ,ith +%ltin tion l *orpor tions. Stiglitz ignores, ho,e-er, the proble+ o# the in*enti-es # *e" by s%*h go-ern+ents in "e ling ,ith their o,n pop%l tions. :h t +etho" o# *hoosing r%lers +ini+izes the ten"en*y to *orr%ptionI Stiglitz$s pre#erre" +e*h nis+ #or slo,ing "o,n JA2 e+issions is * rbon t .. 2ll *o%ntries sho%l" i+pose t . on * rbon e+issions t r tes re#le*ting the e+issions they gener te. 6he t . ,o%l" be set high eno%gh to yiel" the re"%*tions en-is ge" by the Fyoto gree+ent o# 199>, ,itho%t h -ing to set n tion l t rgets. 6his is sensible eno%gh, gi-en the pre+ise th t *li+ te *h nge is + inly the res%lt o# JA 2 e+issions. 6he *h pter on "ebt is the best in the boo&. Stiglitz ,ritesB 8e-eloping *o%ntries borro, too +%*h5or re lent too +%*h5 n" in , ys ,hi*h #or*e the+ to be r +ost or ll o# the ris& o# s%bseC%ent in*re ses in interest r tes, #l%*t% tions in the e.*h nge r te, or "e*re ses in in*o+e. 2s res%lt "e-eloping *o%ntries re o#ten b%r"ene" ,ith "ebt they * n$t ser-i*e. Stiglitz$s sol%tion is in t,o p rtsB these *o%ntries 3sho%l" borro, less5+%*h less5 th n they h -e in the p st3; n" the ,orl" h s to gree on n 3or"erly , y o# restr%*t%ring n" re"%*ing "ebt.3 Stiglitz$s ppro *h to "ebt re#or+ h s be*o+e + instre + ,is"o+, tho%gh *tion l gs so+e , y behin". 6here is ,i"espre " gree+ent th t ssist n*e to poor *o%ntries sho%l" + inly be in the #or+ o# gr nts, not lo ns, sin*e lo ns re %nli&ely to be rep i"; th t highly in"ebte" poor *o%ntries sho%l" borro, -ery *onser- ti-ely in their o,n *%rren*ies; th t t .es n" restri*tions + y nee" to be pl *e" on the short/ter+ * pit l #lo,s by ,hi*h #oreign in-estors see& C%i*& ret%rns n" + y eC% lly C%i*&ly p%ll o%t their +oney. 2s o# J%ly 2<<5, t,enty/eight highly in"ebte" poor *o%ntries h " been gi-en $56 billion in "ebt relie#. 2t @lene gles in J%ne 2<<5, the @8 gree" to o##er 1<< per*ent relie# #or the poorest eighteen *o%ntries, #o%rteen in 2#ri* . 6here is in*re sing gree+ent th t *o%ntries sho%l" not be + "e to rep y 3o"io%s "ebt35"ebt in*%rre" by pre-io%sly *orr%pt or repressi-e r%lers ,hi*h gener lly ,ent str ight into their b n& **o%nts5 n" gro,ing s%pport #or "ebt restr%*t%ring by +e ns o# 3s%per Jh pter 11,3 or intern tion l b n&r%pt*y *o"e. :h t rightly gi-es *onser- ti-es p %se is the ne, intern tion l b%re %*r *ies reC%ire" to "+inister these r%les. Stiglitz proposes the est blish+ent o# n 30ntern tion l Jre"it Jo%rt3 to "e*i"e ho, +%*h 3o"io%s "ebt3 *o%ntries nee" to rep y s ,ell s n 0ntern tion l ; n&r%pt*y 2gen*y to restr%*t%re so-ereign "ebt. =or so+eone so lert to the possibility th t pro"%*ers ,ill * pt%re go-ern+ent l instit%tions, Stiglitz is s%rprisingly opti+isti* bo%t the potenti l o# these bo"ies to right the ,rongs he "es*ribes.
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Stiglitz ne.t t%rns to the glob l +onet ry syste+. 1ere the big proble+ h s been **%+%l tion o# #oreign e.*h nge reser-es5+ inly "oll rs5by "e-eloping *o%ntries. ;et,een 2<<1 n" 2<<5, J p n, Jhin , So%th Fore , Sing pore, 9 l ysi , 6h il n", 0n"onesi , n" the 4hilippines "o%ble" their tot l reser-es #ro+ $1 trillion to $2.3 trillion, ,ith Jhin s the s%perst r. Jhin $s per * pit in*o+e is less th n $1,5<< ye r, o# ,hi*h the eC%i- lent o# $>99 is hel" in reser-es. =or "e-eloping *o%ntries s ,hole, #oreign e.*h nge reser-es rose #ro+ 6?8 per*ent o# @84 "%ring the 19><s n" 198<s to 3< per*ent o# @84 by 2<<K. ;y the en" o# 2<<6, "e-eloping *o%ntry reser-es ,ere e.pe*te" to re *h $3.35 trillion. 8e-eloping *o%ntries hol" s%*h high reser-es o# #oreign e.*h nge to ins%re the+sel-es g inst "est bilizing r%ns on their "o+esti* *%rren*ies n" to -oi" the intr%si-e 09= s%per-ision th t be#ell the *o%ntries * %ght in the E st 2si n *risis o# 199>?1998. E st 2si n *o%ntries lso &eep their o,n *%rren*ies %n"er- l%e" to pro+ote their *o%ntries$ e.ports. Jo%ntries %se their reser-es to b%y 2+eri* n 6re s%ry bills. 6his en bles the 7S to *ons%+e +ore th n it pro"%*es, to the t%ne o# ne rly > per*ent o# its @84. 1o,e-er, **%+%l tion o# reser-es e rns less interest in*o+e #or *entr l b n&s th n ltern ti-e %ses o# s%*h #%n"s, n" e.poses the+ to l rge * pit l losses sho%l" the reser-e *%rren*y "epre*i te g inst the ho+e *%rren*y5 s h s been the * se ,ith the 7S "oll r. Stiglitz rightly e+ph sizes the st ggering 3opport%nity *osts35the ltern ti-e opport%nities #oregone5to "e-eloping *o%ntries o# + int ining s%*h high reser-es. 7S 6re s%ry bills e rn only 1?2 per*ent s g inst the 1<?15 per*ent th t *o%l" be e rne" in high/ret%rn "o+esti* proEe*ts. 6o o-er*o+e these #l ,s, Stiglitz re,or&s propos l p%t #or, r" in the 196<s #or the 09= to iss%e ne, intern tion l reser-e *%rren*y * lle" 3spe*i l "r ,ing rights3 (S8D!, ,hi*h he * lls 3glob l greenb *&s.3 6he *re tion o# spe*i l reser-e *%rren*y, he rg%es, ,o%l" + &e it less ne*ess ry #or *o%ntries to **%+%l te "oll r reser-es, n" 3,o%l" "o +ore to + &e glob liz tion ,or& th n ny other 'initi ti-e(.3 0t is not ob-io%s ,hy this sho%l" be so. 0t + y help the he -ily in"ebte" s%b/S h r n 2#ri* n *o%ntries5tho%gh t the ris& o# + &ing the+ S8D ""i*ts5b%t it ,o%l" "o nothing to pre-ent e.*essi-e reser-e **%+%l tion by *o%ntries li&e Jhin , J p n, n" D%ssi . 2ltho%gh Stiglitz lso +entions ,ith ppro- l John 9 yn r" Feynes$s 19K1 propos l to pen lize e.*essi-e reser-e **%+%l tion, he "oes not #ollo, it %p. Feynes$s propose" Jle ring ; n& ,o%l" h -e reC%ire" *o%ntries ,hose tr "ing **o%nts ,ere persistently in s%rpl%s to re- l%e their *%rren*ies s ,ell s to p y interest on their 3e.*ess3 "eposits. 6he obEe*t o# these +e s%res , s to gi-e in*enti-es to *re"itor *o%ntries to spen" their s%rpl%ses, not ho r" the+. '3( 6his s%ggestion, ,hi*h , s ne-er "opte", *%ts +ore "ire*tly t the root o# e.*essi-e reser-e **%+%l tion th n si+ply e.p n"ing the -ol%+e o# 3glob l greenb *&s.3
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6he boo& *on*l%"es ,ith hints o# ne, sol%tions. Stiglitz , nts to 3+ini+ize the " + ge3 *orpor tions "o to so*iety n" 3+ .i+ize their net *ontrib%tion,3 n" to this en" he proposes #i-e +e s%resB strengthen *orpor te so*i l responsibility, pre-ent +onopolies or * rtels, in*re se the s*ope o# li bility #or en-iron+ent l " + ge, + &e possible *l ss *tion s%its t glob l le-el, n" *re te :6A r%les g inst %n# ir *o+petition n" bribery. ;eyon" this, ll glob l instit%tions nee" to be "e+o*r tize". 0n ri*h *o%ntries ( ltho%gh not re*ently in the 7S! go-ern+ents h -e inter-ene" to re"ress ineC% lity o# po,er n" ,e lth; b%t these s +e *o%ntries h -e %nle she" n l+ost %nreg%l te" #ree + r&et on the rest o# the ,orl". Stiglitz re*ognizes th t poor go-ern+ent in poor *o%ntries is p rtly responsible #or &eeping the+ poor; b%t he lso rg%es th t *orpor te interests re l rgely to bl +e #or poor go-ern+ent. ;y ,e &ening the n tion/st te, they ,e &en the bility o# go-ern+ents to respon" to the proble+s they *re te. :h t is nee"e", Stiglitz rg%es, is "e+o*r ti* glob l instit%tions n logo%s to those th t e.ist in n tion l E%ris"i*tions. 3@o-ern n*e5 proble+s in the , y "e*isions get + "e in the intern tion l ren 5 re t the he rt o# the # il%res o# glob liz tion.3 Stiglitz proposes ten pro*e"%r l n" ten s%bst nti-e *o++ n"+ents to be the b sis o# ne, 3glob l *ontr *t.3 6he #irst ten re i+e" t in*re sing the represent tion n" po,er o# poor n" s+ ll *o%ntries in glob l org niz tions. 6he ne.t ten ,o%l" enshrine gre t + ny *o++it+ents by "e-elope" *o%ntries to "e-eloping ones, in*l%"ing s%pport #or "e+o*r *yB 0 re+ in hope#%l th t the ,orl" ,ill sooner or l ter5 n" hope#%lly sooner5t%rn to the t s& o# *re ting # irer, pro/"e-elop+ent tr "e regi+e. 8e+ n"s #or this by those in the "e-eloping ,orl" ,ill only gro, lo%"er ,ith ti+e.6he *ons*ien*e n" sel#/interest o# the "e-elope" ,orl" ,ill e-ent% lly respon".

3.
:h t -ie, is one to t &e o# these rg%+entsI 0 h -e pointe" o%t so+e o# Stiglitz$s %se#%l n lyses n" propos ls; the +ystery to +e is ho, s%*h #ine e*ono+ist *o%l" ,rite s%*h n %ns tis#ying boo&. 0ts + in #l ,s see+ to +e to be the #ollo,ingB =irst, Stiglitz gre tly %n"eresti+ tes the e.tent to ,hi*h glob liz tion, i+per#e*t s it is, is helping people in poor *o%ntries. 2lre "y, it h s li#te" h%n"re"s o# +illions o# people o%t o# po-erty. Stiglitz #in"s ,orl" 3replete ,ith # il%res.3 6ypi* l is his re+ r& th t ltho%gh 25< +illion 0n"i ns h -e i+pro-e" their st n" r" o# li-ing 3i++ensely3 in the l st t,o "e* "es, 8<< +illion h -en$t5 goo" e. +ple o# his # il%re to gi-e progress its "%e. ArB 36he s " tr%th...is th t o%tsi"e o# Jhin , po-erty in the "e-eloping ,orl" h s in*re se" o-er the p st t,o "e* "es.3 6he :orl" ; n& p%ts it "i##erentlyB 3;y the #r%g l $1 " y st n" r" ,e #in" th t there ,ere 1.1 billion poor in 2<<15 bo%t K<<+ #e,er th n 2< ye rs pre-io%sly.3 Stiglitz belie-es th t the
41

in*re se in po-erty o%tsi"e Jhin C% li#ies the progress + "e in po-erty re"%*tion. ;%t K<< +illion #e,er people li-ing in e.tre+e po-erty is h ppy, not s ", tr%th, ,hether it h ppens in Jhin or ny,here else. 1e lso %n"erpl ys the g in *hie-e" o%tsi"e Jhin . 0t is tr%e th t the n%+ber o# -ery poor o%tsi"e Jhin rose slightly. Stiglitz *ites the #ig%re o# 8>> +illion in the "e-eloping ,orl" in 2<<1 li-ing on less th n $1 " y, n in*re se o# 3 per*ent o-er 1981. :h t he # ils to +ention is th t the tot l pop%l tion o# these *o%ntries in*re se" by 2< per*ent o-er this perio", so th t ,hile there is slightly higher n%+ber o# -ery poor people in the "e-eloping ,orl" to" y, they represent, proportion lly, "e*line #ro+ 32 per*ent to 21 per*ent o# the o-er ll pop%l tion. Stiglitz lso ignores the # *t th t the n%+ber o# those li-ing on bet,een $1 n" $2 " y rose bo%t s +%*h s the n%+ber o# people li-ing on %n"er $1 " y #ell. Nor "oes he +ention the :orl" ; n& esti+ te th t i# glob l po-erty *ontin%es to # ll t the r te it "i" bet,een 1981 n" 2<<1, the re"%*tion ,ill l+ost *ert inly be s%##i*ient to +eet the 7N 9illenni%+ 8e-elop+ent @o l o# h l-ing the proportion o# people li-ing on less th n $1 " y by 2<15.'K( 2 "i##erent obser-er +ight see the gl ss h l# #%ll r ther th n h l# e+pty. :here Stiglitz **epts th t progress h s h ppene", he "enies th t it * n be ttrib%te" to the *%rrent , y glob liz tion is o**%rring. 1is +etho" is to sho, th t *o%ntries th t reEe*te" the #ree/+ r&et + ntr &no,n s the 3: shington *onsens%s3 "i" better th n *o%ntries th t #ollo,e" it. =or e. +ple, E st 2si n go-ern+ents, s%*h s J p n, 6 i, n, n" So%th Fore , in-este" in in"%stries ,ith high gro,th potenti l, en*o%r ge" their pop%l tions to s -e, li+ite" i+ports th t %n"er*%t their gri*%lt%re n" + n%# *t%ring, n" (in the * se o# Jhin n" 0n"i ! restri*te" short/ter+ * pit l #lo,s. S%*h inter-entions + y or + y not h -e *ontrib%te" to their 3+ir *les.3 ;%t s%rely +%*h +ore i+port nt ,ere the *ts o# "o+esti* liber liz tion o# the e*ono+yB #or Jhin the "e*olle*ti-iz tion o# gri*%lt%re n" intro"%*tion o# the 3ho%sehol" responsibility syste+3 in the l te 19><s; #or 0n"i , the "ereg%l tion o# +%*h pro"%*tion, in-est+ent, n" #oreign tr "e in the 199<s. 2bo-e ll, the 3e.port/le" gro,th3 o# E st 2si "epen"e" *r%*i lly on the opening %p o# #oreign, espe*i lly :estern, + r&ets thro%gh bil ter l "e ls n" s%**essi-e ro%n"s o# t ri## re"%*tions. @lob liz tion, ho,e-er i+per#e*t, does o#ten ,or& #or the poor. 8espite its %ni-ers l +ess ge, Stiglitz$s boo& is + inly bo%t + &ing it ,or& #or s%b/S h r n 2#ri* , ,here the proble+ is in l rge p rt en"e+i* lly b " go-ern+ent. 2s ,e h -e re*ently seen, e-en 3s%**ess#%l3 2#ri* n st tes li&e Feny n" Nigeri * n *oll pse into *h os t +o+ent$s noti*e. Se*on", Stiglitz %n"eresti+ tes the e.tent to ,hi*h poor *o%ntries re responsible #or s%st ining their o,n po-erty. 1e shir&s the &ey C%estionB :hy, o-er ti+e, "i"
42

so+e *o%ntries get ri*h n" others st y poorI 1is i+pli*it, C% si/9 r.ist ns,er is th t it , s be* %se the ri*h e.ploite" the poor. 2n ltern ti-e, n" to +y +in" s%perior, ppro *h, pioneere" by 8o%gl ss North, is th t *o%ntries no, ri*h "e-elope" instit%tions s%perior to those o# *o%ntries th t st ye" poor, n" th t the g p in e*ono+i* "e-elop+ent bet,een "i##erent p rts o# the ,orl" h " lre "y e+erge" by the eighteenth *ent%ry.'5( 2s North tells it, e*ono+i* gro,th reC%ires the eC% liz tion o# the pri- te n" so*i l r te o# ret%rn5entreprene%rs h -e to be ble to re*ei-e the bene#it ,hi*h their enterprise *on#ers on so*iety i# enterprise is to t &e pl *e. 6his reC%ires go-ern+ents to *re te n" + int in pri- te/property rights. 6he est blish+ent o# rob%st pri- te/property regi+e , s the o%tst n"ing instit%tion l *ontrib%tion to the :est$s e*ono+i* "e-elop+ent. Stiglitz , nts to "o the re-erse #or poor *o%ntries. 6he e+ph sis o# his boo& is on the " + ge +%ltin tion l *orpor tions "o, n" he , nts the+ to re"%*e this " + ge by #or*ing the+ to p y #or it, th t is, by li+iting their property rights in poor *o%ntries. 6his is "e#ensible position i# one belie-es th t the so*i l - l%e o# entreprene%rship h s "e*line". 6his + y be the * se in lre "y "e-elope" *o%ntries, tho%gh i# one loo&s t the re-ol%tion ry e##e*ts ,ro%ght by the "e-elop+ent o# *ell phones n" 0nternet *orpor tions li&e @oogle, one + y "o%bt it. ;%t the one pl *e it is s%rely not tr%e is in the "e-eloping ,orl", ,hi*h reC%ires +ore entreprene%rship, not less. 2ltho%gh Stiglitz re*ognizes the i+port n*e o# goo" "o+esti* instit%tions #or e*ono+i* s%**ess, the #o*%s o# his boo& is too resol%tely on the e.tern l so%r*es o# # il%re. 6his #%els the n t%r l ten"en*y o# the %ns%**ess#%l to *l i+ they re -i*ti+s o# the s%**ess#%l. 6hir", Stiglitz ignores the h r+ glob liz tion "oes to "e-elope" *o%ntries. 6his is, bo-e ll, thre t to the Eobs n" , ges o# their ,or&ers, so # r l rgely to the %ns&ille", b%t spre "ing to the s&ille" s ,ell. 2-er ge re l , ges in 2+eri* h -e been st gn nt #or t,enty or +ore ye rs, e-en s the e*ono+y h s boo+e". Stiglitz re*ognizes th t glob liz tion is p%lling %p %ns&ille" , ges in Jhin n" "epressing the+ in the 7S n" th t the "epressing e##e*t is # ster th n the p%lling/%p e##e*t. 1e reEe*ts prote*tionis+, b%t, s ,e h -e seen, ll he * n o##er is *ontin%e" retr ining n" i+pro-e+ents in s&ills to #it 2+eri* n ,or&ers #or li#e in *o+petiti-e glob l e*ono+y. ;%t this is n in "eC% te ns,er. 4r *ti* lly ll &in"s o# e+ploy+ent th t "o not reC%ire physi* l presen*e * n no, be o##shore". 2**or"ing to 2l n ;lin"er, this +o%nts to 22?29 per*ent o# ll 7S Eobs.'6( 6here * n be too +%*h *o+petition. =o%rth, Stiglitz %n"eresti+ tes the " nger o# #in n*i l inst bility. :e re *%rrently li-ing thro%gh gr phi* "e+onstr tion o# the -ol tility o# n e*ono+i* syste+ "o+in te" by #in n*i l + r&ets. @lob liz tion both in*re ses the li&elihoo" o# #in n*i l *rises n" re"%*es the bility o# go-ern+ents to "e l ,ith the+. =ollo,ing the E st 2si n *risis o# 199>? 1998 n" the 2rgentini n "e# %lt o# 2<<2, it be* +e *on-ention l to s y th t #in n*i l sho*&s ,ere *on#ine" to "e-eloping *o%ntries ,ith
43

their 3i++ t%re3 #in n*i l + r&ets, b%t th t in the :est ,e h " "is*o-ere" the se*ret o# + r&ets th t "on$t *r sh. 6his so/* lle" ,is"o+ is no, being t%rne" on its he ". ) ,ren*e S%++ers is one o# gro,ing n%+ber o# e*ono+ists ,ho belie-e th t the s%b/pri+e *re"it *risis is +ore li&ely th n not to "r g 2+eri* 5 n" +%*h o# the rest o# the ,orl", ,hi*h "epen"s on 2+eri* n *ons%+ption5into re*ession.'>( =in n*i l inst bility h s goo" *l i+ to be the *hie# #l , in the syste+ o# glob l * pit lis+, n" # r +ore potenti lly "estr%*ti-e o# it th n +ost o# the " ngers highlighte" in Stiglitz$s boo&. =in lly, Stiglitz ignores the + lign ne.%s bet,een glob l *%rrent **o%nt i+b l n*es 5 s e.e+pli#ie" by the h%ge 2+eri* n tr "e "e#i*it5#ree * pit l +o-e+ents, n" the loss o# 2+eri* n Eobs. 0t is not E%st + tter o# #ree tr "e e.posing 2+eri* n *o+p nies to the he lthy bl st o# *o+petition #ro+ lo,er/p i" l bor in E st 2si . 0t is the # *t th t to" y$s e.*h nge/r te rr nge+ents llo, h%ge *%rrent **o%nt i+b l n*es to persist. 6his *re tes proble+ o# 3s%per/*o+petiti-eness35 *o+petition "ri-en by , ges &ept rti#i*i lly lo,, s in Jhin to" y5by n %n"er- l%e" e.*h nge r te. 6his *o%l" not h -e h ppene" in the p st. 7n"er the *l ssi* gol"/st n" r" regi+e, "e#i*it *o%ntry li&e the 7nite" St tes ,o%l" h -e been #or*e" to *%rt il its li-ing st n" r" in or"er to reg in *o+petiti-eness. 0n the present nonsyste+, it * n li-e #or ye rs beyon" its +e ns, t the s *ri#i*e o# its *o+petiti-eness. 6his is be* %se the "oll r is the ,orl"$s + in reser-e *%rren*y. 2+eri* is in the h ppy position o# being ble to ,rite 0A7s #or p%r*h ses o# goo"s n" ser-i*es th t "estroy 2+eri* n Eobs. 6he syste+ s%its both si"es. 2+eri* ns get to *ons%+e h%n"re"s o# +illions o# "oll rs +ore ye r th n they e rn, ,hile E st 2si n ,or&ers s%pply the+ ,ith $><< billion ,orth o# goo"s n" ser-i*es they ,o%l" other,ise h -e pro"%*e" the+sel-es. Sin*e this irr tion l rr nge+ent is the only +e ns h%+ n ,is"o+ h s so # r "e-ise" to -oi" glob l "epression, it is %n"erst n" ble th t there sho%l" be *onspir *y o# poli*y+ &ers to &eep it going. ;%t it * nnot go on n" on. =irst, there is the s +e #l , th t bro%ght "o,n the ;retton :oo"s syste+ in 19>1, n +ely th t the gro,ing in"ebte"ness o# the reser-e *%rren*y *o%ntry * %ses the hol"ers o# th t *%rren*y to lose *on#i"en*e in it. 6his h s st rte" to h ppen. Sin*e 2<<< the "oll r h s "epre*i te" by >< per*ent g inst tr "e/,eighte" b s&et o# *%rren*ies. 39 n ge"3 "epre*i tion *o%l" e sily be*o+e *oll pse. Se*on", there is bo%n" to be prote*tionist b *&l sh s soon s Doss 4erot$s 3s%*&ing so%n"3 o# o%tso%r*ing be*o+es too "e #ening. 0# tr "e is to be le#t s #ely #ree, there h s to be n gree+ent on e.*h nge/r te r%les bet,een the "o+in nt po,ers, in*l%"ing r%les bo%t * pit l +o-e+ents. 0# th t gree+ent is bsent, it ,ill not be llo,e" to st y #ree. 6he l *& o# ttention to these interlin&e" proble+s in boo& on ho, to + &e glob liz tion ,or& is its +ost p lp ble #l ,.
44

0t is h r" to s y ho, # r Stiglitz , s "i-erte" #ro+ this line o# inC%iry by his theoreti* l *o++it+ents, sin*e +ost o# the theoreti* l *tion t &es pl *e o##/p ge. Stiglitz$s Nobel 4rize , s #or ,or& on the e*ono+i*s o# ris& n" in#or+ tion. 9 r&ets s%bEe*t to 3 sy++etri* in#or+ tion35 sit% tion in ,hi*h in#or+ tion is %neC% lly "istrib%te" bet,een p rties to tr ns *tion5 n" other i+per#e*tions "o not #%n*tion s per#e*t *o+petition +o"els s%ggest, n" nee" to be 3*orre*te".3 1o,e-er - li" in its o,n ter+s, this is the perspe*ti-e o# +i*roe*ono+ist, ,here s the + in proble+s o# glob liz tion, 0 s%ggest, lie in its %n*ontrolle" + *roe*ono+y. 0 #in" +ore *ongeni l, n" +ore rele- nt, the rel ti-ely per+issi-e ttit%"e ,ith reg r" to the so/* lle" + r&et # il%res "ispl ye" by the gre t t,entieth/*ent%ry e*ono+ists Feynes n" =rie"ri*h 1 ye& n" their gre ter *on*ern ,ith the proble+ o# se*%ring + *roe*ono+i* st bility, "i##erently tho%gh they set bo%t it. 6hey %n"erstoo" th t %n*ert inty n" the "is ppoint+ent o# e.pe*t tion ,ere inherent, not *ontingent, #e t%res o# e*ono+i* li#e. 0n Feynes$s e*ono+i*s, loss o# *on#i"en*e, ,h te-er its * %ses, le "s to n in*re se in 3liC%i"ity pre#eren*e,3 or #light #ro+ in-est+ent into +oney. 2s Feynes p%t it, the pri*e o# p rting ,ith +oney goes %p. 6his is h ppening to" y. 6he *re"it *r%n*h in the 7nite" St tes n" the e.*ess **%+%l tion o# reser-es in E st 2si re signs o# n in*re se in liC%i"ity pre#eren*e. 6he nee" is not to se r*h #or ne, n" ingenio%s , ys to + &e + r&ets + rgin lly +ore e##i*ient, b%t to pro-i"e + *roe*ono+i* en-iron+ent th t re"%*es the *h n*es o# the #in n*i l sho*&s th t * %se the #light into +oney. 2 ye r go, #e, o%tsi"e s+ ll *ir*le o# e.perts h " e-en he r" o# the *oll ter lize" "ebt instr%+ents (J80s! or the str%*t%re" in-est+ent -ehi*les (S0Hs! ,hose "e# %lts h -e re*ently been "r gging "o,n the 2+eri* n e*ono+y. 0t is per#e*t e. +ple o# ho, #in n*i l stor+ * n s%""enly *o+e %p o%t o# no,here, "estroying ll those sophisti* te", pse%"o/s*ienti#i* te*hniC%es o# 3 -er ging3 ris& by ,hi*h r tion l people try to *on-in*e the+sel-es th t the ,orl" is +ore pre"i*t ble th n it * n e-er be. 9y #in l *riti*is+ is th t Stiglitz$s boo& is * relessly ,ritten. Stiglitz , s5 n" perh ps still is5 n o%tst n"ing e*ono+i* theorist. ;%t he h s been pro"%*ing big, loosely rg%e" boo&s. 6he l %" ble i+ behin" the+ is to in#or+ bro "er %"ien*e bo%t e*ono+i* poli*ies th t *o%l" + &e the ,orl" better pl *e, *ert inly ,ith better li-es #or the poor, n" s%*h "-o* *y h s its pl *e in +o-ing people to *tion. ;%t he l *&s the eloC%en*e, %rgen*y, n" p ssion o# the pre *her, ,hile he h s too o#ten b n"one" the rigor o# the s*ientist. 0n +y -ie,, he h s not yet #o%n" style s%it ble to the pop%l r e.position o# his e*ono+i* i"e s. 6he re "er sho%l" be , re o# +y o,n bi ses. 0 + so llergi* to the +%""ling o# n lysis n" pre *hing th t 0 #in" it h r" to "o boo& li&e this E%sti*e. So let +e s y th t it h s + ny goo" C% lities, n" +%*h #or*e#%l rg%+ent. 2n" there is *ert in +or l gr n"e%r in so+eone ,ho see&s to *%re the ,orl" o# 3its si*&, its l +e, n" its h lt,3 ho,e-er h lting his o,n prose.'8(
45

Notes 6he t,o pre-io%s ones ,ere Globalization and Its Discontents (Norton, 2<<2! re-ie,e" in these p ges by ;enE +in 9. =rie"+ n, 2%g%st 15, 2<<2; n" The Roaring Nineties (Norton, 2<<3!, re-ie,e" in these p ges by :illi + 8. Nor"h %s, J n% ry 15, 2<<K.
'1(

Stephen )e,is, 7N Spe*i l En-oy #or 10HL208S in 2#ri* , s i" on 2%g%st 18, 2<<6, th t 3So%th 2#ri* is the %n&in"est *%t o# ll. 0t is the only *o%ntry in 2#ri* ...,hose go-ern+ent is still obt%se, "il tory n" negligent bo%t rolling o%t tre t+ent. 0t is the only *o%ntry in 2#ri* ,hose go-ern+ent *ontin%es to propo%n" theories +ore ,orthy o# l%n ti* #ringe th n o# *on*erne" n" *o+p ssion te st te.3 See ,,,.& isernet,or&.orgLhe lthM* stL %plo "e"M#ilesL)e,isN2<JlosingN2< Spee*h.p"#.
'2(

=or sti+%l ting *onte+por ry -ersion o# Feynes$s i"e s on intern /tion l #in n*i l r*hite*t%re, see 4 %l 8 -i"son, John Maynard Keynes (4 lgr -e 9 *+ill n, 2<<>!.
'3(

=or the best "is*%ssion o# these iss%es, see Sh oh% Jhen n" 9 rtin D - llion, 31o, 1 -e the :orl"$s 4oorest = re" Sin*e the E rly 198<sI,3 The World Bank Research Observer, Hol. 19, No. 2 (= ll 2<<K!, pp. 1K1?169.
'K(

See 8o%gl ss J. North n" Dobert 4. 6ho+ s, The Rise o the Western World! " Ne# $cono%ic &istory (J +bri"ge 7ni-ersity 4ress, 19>3!.
'5(

2l n S. ;lin"er, 31o, 9 ny 7S Jobs 9ight be A##shor bleI,3 :or&ing 4 per No. 1K2 (9 r*h 2<<>!, Jenter #or E*ono+i* 4oli*y St%"ies, 4rin*eton 7ni-ersity. Hl "i+ir 9 s*h h s pro"%*e" pl n #or 3*o+pens te" #ree tr "e3 to 3*ontrol glob liz tion, s -e 2+eri* n Eobs, pre-ent tr "e , rs, stop pre" tory tr "ing, n" i+pose #in n*i l "is*ipline on o%r 9i* ,berish *o%ntry.3 See 32 D "i* l 4l n to 9 n/ ge @lob liz tion,3 ,,,.b%siness,ee& .*o+, =ebr% ry 1K, 2<<>.
'6(

) ,ren*e S%++ers, 3: &e 7p to the 8 ngers o# 8eepening Jrisis,3 'inancial Ti%es, No-e+ber 25, 2<<>. Stiglitz$s -ie,s on the *%rrent 7S *risis * n be #o%n" in 31o, to Stop the 8o,nt%rn,3 Ap/E" in The Ne# (ork Ti%es, J n% ry 23, 2<<8.
'>(

0 ,o%l" li&e to th n& 4 %l 8 -i"son, E+ily = r*hy, HiE y Joshi, n" Hl "i+ir 9 s*h #or their help#%l *o++ents on +y #irst "r #t.
'8(

FROM NE 1-) 2../

!OR" RE#$E

OF BOO"S % #O&'ME (() N'MBER * + A,R$&

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46

D D -- 3hich ad+ocates the dis!ant*ing o( the 3e*(are state, the a.o*ition o( redistri.uti+e socia* progra!s (or the poor, and the e*i!ination o( go+ern!enta* regu*ations on corporations# In a recent issue of the +e( 4or' Times 7 ecem$er (, 2!!08, Professor "homas 2. .dsall of ?olum$ia 6niversityHs Graduate School of 1ournalism astutely characteri>ed this reactionary process of neoli$eral politics within the 6nited States in these terms5 D&or a :uarter-century, the Cepu$lican temper -- its rec<*ess dri+e to @ettison the socia* sa(et" netA its support o( +io*ence in *a3 en(orce!ent and nationa* de(enseA its ad+ocac" o( regressi+e ta,ation, en+iron!enta* ha0ard and pro.usiness deregu*ationA its Bre!ora*i0ingB o( the pursuit o( 3ea*th %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

neo*i.era*is!

The World's Richest People

Edited by Luisa Kroll and Allison Fass 03.08.07, 6:00 PM ET

It has $een a $usy year for &or$esH team of fortune hunters. Stron# e:uity mar9ets com$ined with risin# real estate values and commodity prices pushed up fortunes from )um$ai to )adrid. &or$es pinned down a record 3+0 $illionaires. "here were 14' newcomers, includin# 13 Cussians, 1+ Indians, 13 ?hinese and 1! Spaniards, as well as the first $illionaires from ?yprus, Oman, Comania and Ser$ia. In#enuity, not industry, is the common characteristic; these fol9s made money in everythin# from media and real estate to coffee, dumplin#s and ethanol. "wo-thirds of last yearHs $illionaires are richer. Only 14I are poorer, includin# 32 who fell $elow the $illion-dollar mar9. "he $illionairesH com$ined net worth clim$ed $y M3!! $illion to M3.( trillion. "hat e:uates to M3.0 $illion apiece. "he avera#e $illionaire is 02 years old, two years youn#er than in 2!!(. "his yearHs new $illionaires are seven years youn#er than that. Of list mem$ersH fortunes, 0!I made theirs from scratch. -ithin the ran9s are simmerin# rivalries. )icrosoft founder 2ill Gates, the worldHs richest man for 13 years, and his pal -arren 2uffett, who holds the /o. 2 spot despite enormous charita$le donations, are :uic9ly losin# #round to )e%icoHs most-monied man, ?arlos Slim FelW. FelWHs net worth is up an astonishin# M13 $illion this year--the sin#le $i##est one-year #ain in a decade--and is now <ust M4 $illion shy of Gates and M3 $illion less than 2uffett. In .urope, CussiaHs mostly youn#, self-made tycoons are catchin# up to GermanyHs often-a#in# heirs and heiresses. Cussia now has (3 $illionaires 72 shy of GermanyHs total8, $ut they are worth M2'2 $illion 7M34 $illion more than GermanyHs richest8.
6,C<,W, A*ril 19: 3h# &or%u)#! o& @u!!iaH! 100 ri.h#!% *#o*l# l#a*% b' ov#r a %hir$ i) 2006, /ro+i)/ )#arl' !i2 %im#! &a!%#r %ha) %h# #.o)om' a! a +hol#, %h# @u!!ia) #$i%io) o& 0orb#! ma/aBi)# !ai$ o) 3hur!$a'. 3h# %o%al +#al%h o& %h# F/ol$#) hu)$r#$G hi% K337 billio) (248 billio) #uro! i) 2006, 36 *#r .#)% hi/h#r %ha) i) 2005, a..or$i)/ %o 0orb#!= a))ual ra)"i)/. 47

@u!!ia=! /ro!! $om#!%i. *ro$u.% /r#+ b' 6.7 *#r .#)% i) 2006. <h#l!#a .lub o+)#r @oma) Abramovi.h, a &i2%ur# i) ;ri%i!h %abloi$!, a/ai) %oo" %h# %o* !*o% i) %h# ra)"i)/ +i%h a &or%u)# o& K19.2b). Na%ural r#!our.#! baro)! &ill#$ %h# o%h#r %o* !*o%!: alumi)ium ma/)a%# ,l#/ D#ri*a!"a %oo" !#.o)$ *la.# +i%h K16.8b), +hil# !%##l ma/)a%# Lla$imir 8i!i) .am# i) %hir$ +i%h 15.1b). 3h# !%a%#=! %i/h%#)i)/ /ri* o) %h# oil a)$ /a! !#.%or! ma$# i%!#l& &#l%, a! o)l' 18 o& %h# 100 ri.h#!% +#r# i) %ho!# !#.%or!, $o+) &rom 41 i) 2005. @u!!ia=! billio)air#! al!o .o)%i)u# %o b# amo)/ %h# +orl$=! 'ou)/#!%: %h# av#ra/# a/# o) %h# li!% +a! 45, .om*ar#$ %o 62 i) %h# ma/aBi)#=! /lobal ra)"i)/.MA0(

,fter a 2!-year rei#n, 1apan is no lon#er ,siaHs top spot for $illionaires5 India has 30, worth a total of M131 $illion, followed $y 1apan with 2+, worth a com$ined M0+ $illion. IndiaHs rich are also marchin# toward the top of our ran9in#s. 2rothers )u9esh and ,nil ,m$ani, who split up their familyJs con#lomerate in 2!!(, <oin Ba9shmi )ittal, who heads the worldHs $i##est steel company, ,rcelor )ittal, amon# the worldJs 2! wealthiest. India now has three in the upper echelons, second only to the 6.S. 2ut even in such a prosperous year, ++ people dropped off the list for various reasons. ,ll our num$ers are $ased on a snapshot of $alance sheets ta9en on &e$. 3, the day we loc9ed in stoc9 prices and e%chan#e rates. So the five e%ecutives who too9 their &ortress Investment Group pu$lic at 353! a.m. on that mornin# made the cut. ,lso on the list is .rnest Gallo, founder of ..O1. Gallo -inery, who died on )arch 0. 2ut our num$ers donHt reflect the volatility that shoo9 the mar9ets three wee9s later. 2etween &e$. 3 and )arch 2 the worldHs stoc9 mar9ets, as measured $y the )or#an Stanley ,ll ?ountry -orld Bocal Inde%, fell $y 3.4I. Some fortunes 7those $ased on private accumulations of real estate, for e%ample8 didnJt feel a $lip.
Published on Friday, December 22, 2006 by OneWorld

Richest 2 Percent Own Half the World's Wealth

by Aaron Glantz

The ri hest ! "er ent o# adults in the $orld o$n %ore than hal# the $orld&s $ealth, a ordin' to a ne$ study released by the (elsin)i*based +orld ,nstitute #or -e.elo"%ent E ono%i s /esear h o# the 0nited 1ations 0ni.ersity. The study&s authors say their $or) is the %ost o%"rehensi.e study o# "ersonal $ealth e.er underta)en. They #ound the ri hest 2 "er ent o# adults o$ned 30 "er ent o# 'lobal assets in the year !000, and that the ri hest 20 "er ent o# adults a ounted #or 84 "er ent o# the $orld&s total. ,n ontrast, the assets o# hal# o# the $orld&s adult "o"ulation a ount #or barely 2
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"er ent o# 'lobal $ealth. 5,t re#le ts the e6tre%e nature o# ine7uality around the $orld,5 one o# the study&s authors, 1e$ 8or) 0ni.ersity Pro#essor Ed$ard +ol##, told 9ne+orld. 58es, $e are ri her than A#ri a and Latin A%eri a and %ost o# Asia, but ho$ %u h ri her is $hat hadn&t really been established until our study a%e out,5 +ol## added. A ordin' to the re"ort, the a.era'e A%eri an&s $ealth a%ounted to :233,000 in the year !000, %ore than 200 ti%es hi'her than the a.era'e ,ndian or ,ndonesian, $hose assets totaled :2,200 and :2,300, res"e ti.ely. The study de#ined $ealth as "hysi al and #inan ial assets**li)e "ersonal sa.in's and ho%e, land, and sto ) o$nershi"**less debts. ;esides the 0nited <tates, only =anada, +estern Euro"e, >a"an, and ,srael sho$ed a.era'e "ersonal $ealth o# %ore than :40,000. Pa)istan, ?ietna%, =a%bodia, %any #or%er <o.iet /e"ubli s, and %ost o# sub* <aharan A#ri a sho$ed a.era'e "ersonal $ealth o# under :!,000. =on#li t*ridden ountries li)e A#'hanistan, ,ra7, and the <udan did not re"ort data. 5This is a re%inder that %ost "eo"le do not li.e the $ay %iddle lass A%eri ans li.e,5 -a.id /au h%an o# the +ashin'ton, -=*based =enter #or @lobal -e.elo"%ent told 9ne+orld. 5That o%es out o# t$o enturies or %ore o# history $here 1orth A%eri a and Euro"e ha.e e6"erien ed steady and #airly ra"id industrial de.elo"%ent. Mean$hile, "la es li)e Asia and A#ri a ha.en&t so %u h.5 /au h%an said #orei'n aid "ro'ra%s and "hilanthro"y $ould 'o "art o# the $ay to$ard losin' the international $ealth 'a", but trade and i%%i'ration "oli ies are also i%"ortant. 5,# $e %a)e it easier #or lothin' %anu#a turers and #ar%ers in ;an'ladesh or Mali to shi" their 'oods to the 0nited <tates so A%eri ans an buy the%, that $ill hel" and it $ill be 'ood #or us too,5 he said. 5<a%e thin' #or i%%i'ration. ,t&s 'ood #or Me6i o i# Me6i ans an o%e to the 0nited <tates and send %oney ho%e. ,# $e %a)e it easier #or "eo"le to o%e and "arti i"ate in our e ono%y, it&s a tually 'ood #or e ono%ies in the rest o# the $orld.5 ;ut un#ettered #ree trade tends to bene#it the $ealthy at the e6"ense o# the "oor, says Anuradha Mittal o# the =ali#ornia*based 9a)land ,nstitute, a thin) tan) that s"e ialiAes in so ial, e ono%i , and en.iron%ental issues. <he says the rise o# #ree trade has in reased the $ealth 'a", both internationally and inside %any ountries.
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Mittal ites as an e6a%"le the 1orth A%eri an Free Trade A'ree%ent B1AFTAC si'ned in 2DD! by the 0nited <tates, =anada, and Me6i o. 5,nstead o# Me6i o bein' able to e6"ort its #ood to the 0nited <tates, $hat&s really ha""ened is that 0.<. orn e6"orts to Me6i o ha.e tri"led, "ushin' ! %illion Me6i an orn #ar%ers out o# business. And those are the .ery "eo"le $ho then %i'rate Eto the 0nited <tatesF.5 Those %i'rants then $or) #or lo$ $a'es inside the 0nited <tates, Mittal ar'ues, "ushin' $a'es #or all $or)ers do$n. ,n addition, says Mittal, 5$hen you tal) about the ability to e6"ort you&re tal)in' about bi' "lantations, $hi h reates #urther ine7uities inside o# ountries. 8ou&re not 'oin' to be tal)in' about Ei%"ro.in' li.elihoods #orF s%all #ar%ers in Me6i o or (onduras or ,ndia.5 9ne solution "ut #or$ard by the authors o# the 0nited 1ations 0ni.ersity re"ort is e6"andin' a ess to %i ro redit**s%all loans 'i.en to "oor "eo"le $ho are not able to 'et traditional lines o# redit #ro% re'ular ban)s. The loans, $hi h are o#ten used to hel" establish or i%"ro.e s%all businesses, ha.e "ro.ed to be 7uite sa#e, $ith %any lenders e6"erien in' re"ay%ent rates lose to 200 "er ent. This %onth, ;an'ladeshi e ono%ist Muha%%ad 8unus $as a$arded the 1obel Pea e PriAe #or his "ioneerin' %i ro redit "ro'ra%. 8unus shared the a$ard $ith the @ra%een ;an), $hi h he #ounded 30 years a'o. The ban) 'i.es s%all, unse ured loans to nearly 7 %illion i%"o.erished ;an'ladeshis**al%ost all o# $ho% are $o%en. 8unus started by lendin' 3! "eo"le a total o# :!7. 5The e6 ite%ent that $as reated a%on' the "eo"le by this a tion 'ot %e #urther in.ol.ed in it,5 he said in his 1obel a e"tan e s"ee h in 9slo. 5,# , ould %a)e so %any "eo"le so ha""y $ith su h a tiny a%ount o# %oney, $hy shouldn&t , do %ore o# itG That&s $hat , ha.e been tryin' to do e.er sin e.5 5@ra%een ;an) 'i.es ollateral*#ree in o%e*'eneratin' loans, housin' loans, student loans, and %i ro*enter"rise loans to "oor #a%ilies and o##ers a host o# attra ti.e sa.in's, "ension #unds, and insuran e "rodu ts #or its %e%bers,5 8unus added. ;ut des"ite its bene#its, Mittal notes that %i ro redit alone is unli)ely to "ut a si'ni#i ant dent in the international $ealth 'a". 5/esear h sho$s that %ore than 44 "er ent o# borro$ers a#ter ei'ht years o# borro$in' are still usin' their loans to buy #ood,5 she said. 5<o $hile %i ro redit is a
50

'ood sur.i.al strate'y, it is not a solution #or de.elo"%ent.5 =o"yri'ht H !006 9ne+orld

Published on +ednesday, A"ril !, !008 by To%-is"at h. o%

Empire or H manity! What the "lassroom #idn$t Teach %e Abo t the American Empire
by (o$ard Iinn +ith an o u"yin' ar%y $a'in' $ar in ,ra7 and A#'hanistan, $ith %ilitary bases and or"orate bullyin' in e.ery "art o# the $orld, there is hardly a 7uestion any %ore o# the e6isten e o# an A%eri an E%"ire. ,ndeed, the on e #er.ent denials ha.e turned into a boast#ul, unasha%ed e%bra e o# the idea. (o$e.er, the .ery idea that the 0nited <tates $as an e%"ire did not o ur to %e until a#ter , #inished %y $or) as a bo%bardier $ith the Ei'hth Air For e in the <e ond +orld +ar, and a%e ho%e. E.en as , be'an to ha.e se ond thou'hts about the "urity o# the J@ood +ar,K e.en a#ter bein' horri#ied by (iroshi%a and 1a'asa)i, e.en a#ter rethin)in' %y o$n bo%bin' o# to$ns in Euro"e, , still did not "ut all that to'ether in the onte6t o# an A%eri an JE%"ire.K , $as ons ious, li)e e.eryone, o# the ;ritish E%"ire and the other i%"erial "o$ers o# Euro"e, but the 0nited <tates $as not seen in the sa%e $ay. +hen, a#ter the $ar, , $ent to olle'e under the @.,. ;ill o# /i'hts and too) ourses in 0.<. history, , usually #ound a ha"ter in the history te6ts alled JThe A'e o# ,%"erialis%.K ,t in.ariably re#erred to the <"anish*A%eri an +ar o# 28D8 and the on7uest o# the Phili""ines that #ollo$ed. ,t see%ed that A%eri an i%"erialis% lasted only a relati.ely #e$ years. There $as no o.erar hin' .ie$ o# 0.<. e6"ansion that %i'ht lead to the idea o# a %ore #ar*ran'in' e%"ire L or "eriod o# Ji%"erialis%.K , re all the lassroo% %a" Blabeled J+estern E6"ansionKC $hi h "resented the %ar h a ross the ontinent as a natural, al%ost biolo'i al "heno%enon. That hu'e a 7uisition o# land alled JThe Louisiana Pur haseK hinted at nothin' but .a ant land a 7uired. There $as no sense that this territory had been o u"ied by hundreds o# ,ndian tribes $hi h $ould ha.e to be annihilated or #or ed #ro% their ho%es L $hat $e no$ all Jethni leansin'K L so that $hites ould settle the land, and later railroads ould riss ross it, "resa'in' J i.iliAationK and its brutal dis ontents. 1either the dis ussions o# J>a )sonian de%o ra yK in history ourses, nor the "o"ular boo) by Arthur < hlesin'er >r., The Age of Jackson, told %e about the JTrail o# Tears,K the deadly #or ed %ar h o# Jthe #i.e i.iliAed tribesK $est$ard #ro% @eor'ia and Alaba%a a ross the Mississi""i, lea.in' 3,000 dead in their $a)e. 1o treat%ent o# the =i.il +ar %entioned the <and =ree) %assa re o# hundreds o# ,ndian .illa'ers in =olorado Must as Je%an i"ationK $as "ro lai%ed #or bla ) "eo"le by Lin olnNs ad%inistration.

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That lassroo% %a" also had a se tion to the south and $est labeled JMe6i an =ession.K This $as a handy eu"he%is% #or the a''ressi.e $ar a'ainst Me6i o in 2836 in $hi h the 0nited <tates seiAed hal# o# that ountryNs land, 'i.in' us =ali#ornia and the 'reat <outh$est. The ter% JMani#est -estiny,K used at that ti%e, soon o# ourse be a%e %ore uni.ersal. 9n the e.e o# the <"anish*A%eri an +ar in 28D8, the Washing on Pos sa$ beyond =uba: J+e are #a e to #a e $ith a stran'e destiny. The taste o# E%"ire is in the %outh o# the "eo"le e.en as the taste o# blood in the Mun'le.K The .iolent %ar h a ross the ontinent, and e.en the in.asion o# =uba, a""eared to be $ithin a natural s"here o# 0.<. interest. A#ter all, hadnNt the Monroe -o trine o# 28!3 de lared the +estern (e%is"here to be under our "rote tionG ;ut $ith hardly a "ause a#ter =uba a%e the in.asion o# the Phili""ines, hal#$ay around the $orld. The $ord Ji%"erialis%K no$ see%ed a #ittin' one #or 0.<. a tions. ,ndeed, that lon', ruel $ar L treated 7ui )ly and su"er#i ially in the history boo)s L 'a.e rise to an Anti*,%"erialist Lea'ue, in $hi h +illia% >a%es and Mar) T$ain $ere leadin' #i'ures. ;ut this $as not so%ethin' , learned in uni.ersity either. The &'ole ' perpower( "omes into )iew /eadin' outside the lassroo%, ho$e.er, , be'an to #it the "ie es o# history into a lar'er %osai . +hat at #irst had see%ed li)e a "urely "assi.e #orei'n "oli y in the de ade leadin' u" to the First +orld +ar no$ a""eared as a su ession o# .iolent inter.entions: the seiAure o# the Pana%a =anal Aone #ro% =olo%bia, a na.al bo%bard%ent o# the Me6i an oast, the dis"at h o# the Marines to al%ost e.ery ountry in =entral A%eri a, o u"yin' ar%ies sent to (aiti and the -o%ini an /e"ubli . As the %u h*de orated @eneral <%edley ;utler, $ho "arti i"ated in %any o# those inter.entions, $rote later: J, $as an errand boy #or +all <treet.K At the .ery ti%e , $as learnin' this history L the years a#ter +orld +ar ,, L the 0nited <tates $as be o%in' not Must another i%"erial "o$er, but the $orldNs leadin' su"er"o$er. -eter%ined to %aintain and e6"and its %ono"oly on nu lear $ea"ons, it $as ta)in' o.er re%ote islands in the Pa i#i , #or in' the inhabitants to lea.e, and turnin' the islands into deadly "lay'rounds #or %ore ato%i tests. ,n his %e%oir, !o Place o "ide, -r. -a.id ;radley, $ho %onitored radiation in those tests, des ribed $hat $as le#t behind as the testin' tea%s $ent ho%e: JE/Fadioa ti.ity, onta%ination, the $re )ed island o# ;i)ini and its sad*eyed "atient e6iles.K The tests in the Pa i#i $ere #ollo$ed, o.er the years, by %ore tests in the deserts o# 0tah and 1e.ada, %ore than a thousand tests in all. +hen the $ar in Korea be'an in 2D40, , $as still studyin' history as a 'raduate student at =olu%bia 0ni.ersity. 1othin' in %y lasses "re"ared %e to understand A%eri an "oli y in Asia. ;ut , #as readin' $% F% & one's Weekly. <tone $as a%on' the .ery #e$ Mournalists $ho 7uestioned the o##i ial Musti#i ation #or sendin' an ar%y to Korea. ,t see%ed lear to %e then that it $as not the in.asion o# <outh Korea by the 1orth that "ro%"ted 0.<. inter.ention, but the desire o# the 0nited <tates to ha.e a #ir% #oothold on the ontinent o# Asia, es"e ially no$ that the =o%%unists $ere in "o$er in =hina. 8ears later, as the o.ert inter.ention in ?ietna% 're$ into a %assi.e and brutal %ilitary o"eration, the i%"erial desi'ns o# the 0nited <tates be a%e yet learer to %e. ,n 2D67, , $rote a little boo) alled (ie nam) The *ogic of Wi hdra#al. ;y that ti%e , $as hea.ily in.ol.ed in the %o.e%ent a'ainst the $ar. +hen , read the hundreds o# "a'es o# the Penta'on Pa"ers entrusted to %e by -aniel Ellsber', $hat Mu%"ed out at %e $ere the se ret %e%os #ro% the 1ational <e urity =oun il. E6"lainin' the 0.<. interest in <outheast Asia, they s"o)e bluntly o# the ountryNs %oti.es as a 7uest #or Jtin, rubber, oil.K

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1either the desertions o# soldiers in the Me6i an +ar, nor the dra#t riots o# the =i.il +ar, not the anti*i%"erialist 'rou"s at the turn o# the entury, nor the stron' o""osition to +orld +ar , L indeed no anti$ar %o.e%ent in the history o# the nation rea hed the s ale o# the o""osition to the $ar in ?ietna%. At least "art o# that o""osition rested on an understandin' that %ore than ?ietna% $as at sta)e, that the brutal $ar in that tiny ountry $as "art o# a 'rander i%"erial desi'n. ?arious inter.entions #ollo$in' the 0.<. de#eat in ?ietna% see%ed to re#le t the des"erate need o# the still*rei'nin' su"er"o$er L e.en a#ter the #all o# its "o$er#ul ri.al, the <o.iet 0nion L to establish its do%inan e e.ery$here. (en e the in.asion o# @renada in 2D8!, the bo%bin' assault on Pana%a in 2D8D, the #irst @ul# $ar o# 2DD2. +as @eor'e ;ush <r. heartsi ) o.er <adda% (usseinNs seiAure o# Ku$ait, or $as he usin' that e.ent as an o""ortunity to %o.e 0.<. "o$er #ir%ly into the o.eted oil re'ion o# the Middle EastG @i.en the history o# the 0nited <tates, 'i.en its obsession $ith Middle Eastern oil datin' #ro% Fran)lin /oose.eltNs 2D34 deal $ith Kin' Abdul AAiA o# <audi Arabia, and the =,ANs o.erthro$ o# the de%o rati Mossade7 'o.ern%ent in ,ran in 2D43, it is not hard to de ide that 7uestion. * stifyin+ Empire The ruthless atta )s o# <e"te%ber 22th Bas the o##i ial DO22 =o%%ission a )no$led'edC deri.ed #ro% #ier e hatred o# 0.<. e6"ansion in the Middle East and else$here. E.en be#ore that e.ent, the -e#ense -e"art%ent a )no$led'ed, a ordin' to =hal%ers >ohnsonNs boo) The &orro#s of +m,ire, the e6isten e o# %ore than 700 A%eri an %ilitary bases outside o# the 0nited <tates. <in e that date, $ith the initiation o# a J$ar on terroris%,K %any %ore bases ha.e been established or e6"anded: in Kyr'yAstan, A#'hanistan, the desert o# Patar, the @ul# o# 9%an, the (orn o# A#ri a, and $here.er else a o%"liant nation ould be bribed or oer ed. +hen , $as bo%bin' ities in @er%any, (un'ary, =Ae hoslo.a)ia, and Fran e in the <e ond +orld +ar, the %oral Musti#i ation $as so si%"le and lear as to be beyond dis ussion: +e $ere sa.in' the $orld #ro% the e.il o# #as is%. , $as there#ore startled to hear #ro% a 'unner on another re$ L $hat $e had in o%%on $as that $e both read boo)s L that he onsidered this Jan i%"erialist $ar.K ;oth sides, he said, $ere %oti.ated by a%bitions o# ontrol and on7uest. +e ar'ued $ithout resol.in' the issue. ,roni ally, tra'i ally, not lon' a#ter our dis ussion, this #ello$ $as shot do$n and )illed on a %ission. ,n $ars, there is al$ays a di##eren e bet$een the %oti.es o# the soldiers and the %oti.es o# the "oliti al leaders $ho send the% into battle. My %oti.e, li)e that o# so %any, $as inno ent o# i%"erial a%bition. ,t $as to hel" de#eat #as is% and reate a %ore de ent $orld, #ree o# a''ression, %ilitaris%, and ra is%. The %oti.e o# the 0.<. establish%ent, understood by the aerial 'unner , )ne$, $as o# a di##erent nature. ,t $as des ribed early in 2D32 by (enry Lu e, %ulti*%illionaire o$ner o# Time, *ife, and For une %a'aAines, as the o%in' o# JThe A%eri an =entury.K The ti%e had arri.ed, he said, #or the 0nited <tates Jto e6ert u"on the $orld the #ull i%"a t o# our in#luen e, #or su h "ur"oses as $e see #it, and by su h %eans as $e see #it.K +e an hardly as) #or a %ore andid, blunter de laration o# i%"erial desi'n. ,t has been e hoed in re ent years by the intelle tual hand%aidens o# the ;ush ad%inistration, but $ith assuran es that the %oti.e o# this Jin#luen eK is beni'n, that the J"ur"osesK L $hether in Lu eNs #or%ulation or %ore re ent ones L are noble, that this is an Ji%"erialis% lite.K As @eor'e ;ush said in his se ond inau'ural address: J<"readin' liberty around the $orldQ is the allin' o# our ti%e.K The !e# -ork Times alled that s"ee h Jstri)in' #or its idealis%.K The A%eri an E%"ire has al$ays been a bi"artisan "roMe t L -e%o rats and /e"ubli ans ha.e ta)en turns e6tendin' it, e6tollin' it, Musti#yin' it. President +oodro$ +ilson told 'raduates o# the 53

1a.al A ade%y in 2D23 Bthe year he bo%barded Me6i oC that the 0.<. used Jher na.y and her ar%yQ as the instru%ents o# i.iliAation, not as the instru%ents o# a''ression.K And ;ill =linton, in 2DD!, told +est Point 'raduates: JThe .alues you learned hereQ $ill be able to s"read throu'hout the ountry and throu'hout the $orld.K For the "eo"le o# the 0nited <tates, and indeed #or "eo"le all o.er the $orld, those lai%s sooner or later are re.ealed to be #alse. The rhetori , o#ten "ersuasi.e on #irst hearin', soon be o%es o.er$hel%ed by horrors that an no lon'er be on ealed: the bloody or"ses o# ,ra7, the torn li%bs o# A%eri an @,s, the %illions o# #a%ilies dri.en #ro% their ho%es L in the Middle East and in the Mississi""i -elta. (a.e not the Musti#i ations #or e%"ire, e%bedded in our ulture, assaultin' our 'ood sense L that $ar is ne essary #or se urity, that e6"ansion is #unda%ental to i.iliAation L be'un to lose their hold on our %indsG (a.e $e rea hed a "oint in history $here $e are ready to e%bra e a ne$ $ay o# li.in' in the $orld, e6"andin' not our %ilitary "o$er, but our hu%anityG "o#ard .inn is he au hor of A Peo,le's "is ory of he /ni ed & a es and (oices of a Peo,le's "is ory of he /ni ed & a es, no# being filmed for a ma0or ele1ision documen ary%

Published on +ednesday, A"ril !, !008 by the <eattle Post*,ntelli'en er

Wall 'treet *o rnal, 'EPTE%-ER ./0 211/

Worst "risis 'ince '21s0 With 3o End 4et in 'i+ht
By JON HILSENRATH , SERENA NG and DAMIAN PALETTA

The #inan ial risis that be'an 23 %onths a'o has entered a ne$, #ar %ore serious "hase. Lin'erin' ho"es that the da%a'e ould be ontained to a hand#ul o# #inan ial institutions that %ade bad bets on %ort'a'es ha.e e.a"orated. 1e$ #ault lines are e%er'in' beyond the ori'inal "roble% ** troubled sub"ri%e %ort'a'es ** in areas li)e redit*de#ault s$a"s, the redit insuran e ontra ts sold by A%eri an ,nternational @rou" ,n . and others. There&s also a 'ro$in' sense o# $ariness about the health o# tradin' "artners. The onse7uen es #or o%"anies and hie# e6e uti.es $ho tarry ** ho"in' #or better ti%es in $hi h to raise a"ital, sell assets or a )no$led'e losses ** are no$ lear and brutal, as #allin' share "ri es and #ear#ul lenders send troubled o%"anies into e.er*dee"er holes. This $ee)end, su h a realiAation led >ohn Thain to sell the entury*old Merrill Lyn h R =o. to ;an) o# A%eri a =or". Ea h e"isode see%s to brin' 'o.ern%ent inter.ention that is %ore e6tensi.e and e6"ensi.e than the "re.ious one, and arries 'reater ris) o# unintended onse7uen es. E6"e tations #or a 7ui ) end to the risis are #adin' #ast. 5, thin) it&s 'oin' to last a lot lon'er than "erha"s $e $ould ha.e anti i"ated,5 Anne Mul ahy, hie# e6e uti.e o# Sero6 =or"., said +ednesday. 5This has been the $orst #inan ial risis sin e the @reat -e"ression. There is no 7uestion about it,5 said Mar) @ertler, a 1e$ 8or) 0ni.ersity e ono%ist $ho $or)ed $ith #ello$ a ade%i ;en ;ernan)e, no$ the Federal /eser.e hair%an, to e6"lain ho$ #inan ial tur%oil an in#e t the o.erall e ono%y. 5;ut at the sa%e ti%e $e ha.e
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the "oli y %e hanis%s in "la e #i'htin' it, $hi h is so%ethin' $e didn&t ha.e durin' the @reat -e"ression.5 'preadin+ #isease The 0.<. #inan ial syste% rese%bles a "atient in intensi.e are. The body is tryin' to #i'ht o## a disease that is s"readin', and as it does so, the body on.ulses, settles #or a ti%e and then on.ulses a'ain. The illness see%s to be o.er$hel%in' the sel#* healin' tenden ies o# %ar)ets. The do tors in har'e are resortin' to e.er*%ore in.asi.e treat%ent, and are no$ e6"eri%entin' $ith re%edies that ha.e ne.er be#ore been a""lied. Fed =hair%an ;ernan)e and Treasury <e retary (enry Paulson, $al)in' into a hastily arran'ed %eetin' $ith on'ressional leaders Tuesday ni'ht to brie# the% on the 'o.ern%ent&s un"re edented res ue o# A,@, loo)ed li)e e6hausted sur'eons deli.erin' 'ri% ne$s to the #a%ily. ,n the $a)e o# this "ast $ee)&s %ar)et %eltdo$n, +<>&s e ono%i s editor -a.id +essel loo)s at the sha)eu" and sees one o# t$o out o%es: the risis as atharsis or a dra$n*out %ess. Fed and Treasury o##i ials ha.e identi#ied the disease. ,t&s alled dele.era'in', or the un$indin' o# debt. -urin' the redit boo%, #inan ial institutions and A%eri an households too) on too %u h debt. ;et$een !00! and !006, household borro$in' 're$ at an a.era'e annual rate o# 22T, #ar out"a in' o.erall e ono%i 'ro$th. ;orro$in' by #inan ial institutions 're$ by a 20T annualiAed rate. 1o$ %any o# those borro$ers an&t "ay ba ) the loans, a "roble% that is e6a erbated by the olla"se in housin' "ri es. They need to redu e their de"enden e on borro$ed %oney, a "ain#ul and dra$n*out "ro ess that an ho)e o## redit and e ono%i 'ro$th. At least three thin's need to ha""en to brin' the dele.era'in' "ro ess to an end, and they&re hard to do at on e. Finan ial institutions and others need to #ess u" to their %ista)es by sellin' or $ritin' do$n the .alue o# distressed assets they bou'ht $ith borro$ed %oney. They need to "ay o## debt. Finally, they need to rebuild their a"ital ushions, $hi h ha.e been eroded by losses on those distressed assets. ;ut %any o# the distressed assets are hard to .alue and there are #e$ i# any buyers. -ele.era'in' also #eeds on itsel# in a $ay that an reate a do$n$ard s"iral: Tryin' to sell assets "ushes do$n the assets& "ri es, $hi h %a)es the% harder to sell and leads #ir%s to try to sell %ore assets. That, in turn, su""resses these #ir%s& share "ri es and %a)es it harder #or the% to sell ne$ shares to raise a"ital. Mr. ;ernan)e, as an a ade%i , dubbed this sel#*#eedin' loo" a 5#inan ial a elerator.5 5Many o# the =E9 ty"es $eren&t $illin'...to ta)e these losses, and say, &, a e"t the #a t that ,&% sellin' these $ay belo$ #unda%ental .alue,&5 said Anil Kashya", a 0ni.ersity o# =hi a'o ;usiness < hool e ono%i s "ro#essor. 5The ones that had the bi''est e6"osure, they&.e all died.5 -ele.era'in' started $ith se urities tied to sub"ri%e %ort'a'es, $here de#aults started risin' ra"idly in !006. ;ut the dele.era'in' "ro ess has no$ s"read $ell beyond, to o%%er ial real estate and auto loans to the short*ter% o%%it%ents on
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$hi h in.est%ent ban)s rely to #und the%sel.es. ,n the #irst 7uarter, #inan ial*se tor borro$in' slo$ed to a 4.2T 'ro$th rate, about hal# o# the a.era'e #ro% !00! to !007. (ousehold borro$in' has slo$ed e.en %ore, to a 3.4T "a e. 3ot Eno +h @old%an <a hs @rou" ,n . e ono%ist >an (atAius esti%ates that in the "ast year, #inan ial institutions around the $orld ha.e already $ritten do$n :308 billion $orth o# assets and raised :367 billion $orth o# a"ital. ;ut that doesn&t a""ear to be enou'h. E.ery ti%e #inan ial #ir%s and in.estors su''est that they&.e $ritten assets do$n enou'h and raised enou'h ne$ a"ital, a ne$ $a.e o# sellin' tri''ers a ree.aluation, "ro"ellin' the risis into ne$ territory. /esidential %ort'a'e losses alone ould hit :636 billion by !02!, @old%an esti%ates, tri''erin' $ides"read retren h%ent in ban) lendin'. That ould sha.e 2.8 "er enta'e "oints a year o## e ono%i 'ro$th in !008 and !00D ** the e7ui.alent o# :!40 billion in lost 'oods and ser.i es ea h year. 5This is a dele.era'in' li)e nothin' $e&.e e.er seen be#ore,5 said /obert @lauber, no$ a "ro#essor o# (ar.ard&s 'o.ern%ent and la$ s hools $ho a%e to +ashin'ton in 2D8D to hel" or'aniAe the sa.in's and loan leanu" o# the early 2DD0s. 5The <RL losses to the 'o.ern%ent $ere s%all o%"ared to this.5 (ed'e #unds ould be a%on' the ne6t "roble% areas. Many rely on borro$ed %oney to a%"li#y their returns. +ith ban)s under "ressure, %any hed'e #unds are less able to borro$ this %oney no$, "ressurin' returns. Mean$hile, there are 'ro$in' indi ations that #e$er in.estors are shi#tin' into hed'e #unds $hile others are "ullin' out. Fund in.estors are dealin' $ith their o$n "roble%s: Many ha.e ta)en out loans to %a)e their in.est%ents and are #indin' it %ore di##i ult no$ to borro$. That all %a)es it li)ely that %ore hed'e #unds $ill shutter in the %onths ahead, #or in' the% to sell their in.est%ents, #urther $ei'hin' on the %ar)et. -ebt*dri.en #inan ial trau%as ha.e a lon' history, #ro% the @reat -e"ression to the <RL risis to the Asian #inan ial risis o# the late 2DD0s. 1either e ono%ists nor "oli y%a)ers ha.e easy solutions. =uttin' interest rates and $ritin' sti%ulus he )s to #a%ilies an hel" ** and %ay ha.e "re.ented or delayed a dee" re ession. ;ut, at least in this instan e, they don&t su##i e. ,n su h ir u%stan es, 'o.ern%ents al%ost in.ariably e6"eri%ent $ith solutions $ith .aryin' de'rees o# su ess. President Fran)lin -elano /oose.elt unleashed an al"habet sou" o# ne$ a'en ies and a host o# ne$ re'ulations in the a#ter%ath o# the %ar)et rash o# 2D!D. ,n the 2DD0s, >a"an e%bar)ed on a de ade o# o#ten*$aste#ul 'o.ern%ent s"endin' to ounter the a#tere##e ts o# a burstin' bubble. President @eor'e (.+. ;ush and =on'ress reated the /esolution Trust =or". to ta)e and sell the assets o# #ailed thri#ts. (on' Kon'&s #ree*%ar)et 'o.ern%ent $ent on a %assi.e sto )*buyin' s"ree in 2DD8, buyin' u" shares o# e.ery o%"any listed in the ben h%ar) (an' <en' inde6. ,t ended u" "a )a'in' the% into an e6 han'e*traded #und and %a)in' %oney.
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Ta5in+ O t the Playboo5 Today, Mr. ;ernan)e is ta)in' out his "layboo), said 180 e ono%ist Mr. @ertler, 5and re$ritin' it as $e 'o.5 Merrill Lyn h R =o.&s e%er'en y sale to ;an) o# A%eri a =or". last $ee)end $as an e6a%"le o# the "erni iousness and un"redi tability o# dele.era'in'. ,n the "ast year, Merrill had hired a ne$ hie# e6e uti.e, $ritten o## :32.3 billion in assets and raised :!2 billion in e7uity a"ital. ;ut Merrill ouldn&t )ee" u". The %ore it raised, the %ore it $as #or ed to $rite o##. +hen Merrill =E9 >ohn Thain attended a %eetin' $ith the 1e$ 8or) Fed and other +all <treet e6e uti.es last $ee), he sa$ that Merrill $as the ne6t %ost .ulnerable bro)era'e #ir%. 5+e $at hed ;ear and Leh%an. +e )ne$ $e ould be ne6t,5 said one Merrill e6e uti.e. Fear#ul that its lenders $ould shut the #ir% o##, he sold to ;an) o# A%eri a. This risis is o%"li ated by inno.ati.e #inan ial instru%ents that +all <treet reated and distributed. They&re %a)in' it harder #or o##i ials and +all <treet e6e uti.es to )no$ $here the ne6t set o# ris)s is hidin' and also ontributin' to the risis&s s"readin' i%"a t. 'waps Game The latest trouble s"ot is an area alled redit*de#ault s$a"s, $hi h are "ri.ate ontra ts that let #ir%s trade bets on $hether a borro$er is 'oin' to de#ault. +hen a de#ault o urs, one "arty "ays o## the other. The .alue o# the s$a"s rise and #all as the %ar)et reassesses the ris) that a o%"any $on&t be able to honor its obli'ations. Fir%s use these instru%ents both as insuran e ** to hed'e their e6"osures to ris) ** and to $a'er on the health o# other o%"anies. There are no$ redit*de#ault s$a"s on %ore than :6! trillion in debt, u" #ro% about :233 billion a de ade a'o. 9ne o# the bi' ne$ "layers in the s$a"s 'a%e $as A,@, the $orld&s lar'est insurer and a %aMor seller o# redit*de#ault s$a"s to #inan ial institutions and o%"anies. +hen the redit %ar)ets $ere boo%in', %any #ir%s bou'ht these instru%ents #ro% A,@, belie.in' the insuran e 'iant&s stron' redit ratin's and lar'e balan e sheet ould "ro.ide a shield a'ainst bond and loan de#aults. A,@ belie.ed the ris) o# de#ault $as lo$ on %any se urities it insured. As o# >une 30, an A,@ unit had $ritten redit*de#ault s$a"s on %ore than :336 billion in redit assets, in ludin' %ort'a'e se urities, or"orate loans and o%"le6 stru tured "rodu ts. Last year, $hen risin' sub"ri%e*%ort'a'e delin7uen ies da%a'ed the .alue o# %any se urities A,@ had insured, the #ir% $as #or ed to boo) lar'e $rite*do$ns on its deri.ati.e "ositions. That s"oo)ed in.estors, $ho rea ted by du%"in' its shares, %a)in' it harder #or A,@ to raise the a"ital it in reasin'ly needed. =redit de#ault s$a"s 5didn&t ause the "roble%, but they ertainly e6a erbated the #inan ial risis,5 said Leslie /ahl, "resident o# =a"ital Mar)et /is) Ad.isors, a onsultin' #ir% in 1e$ 8or). The sheer .olu%e o# =-< ontra ts outstandin' ** and
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the #a t that they trade dire tly bet$een institutions, $ithout entraliAed learin' ** intert$ined the #ates o# %any lar'e ban)s and bro)era'es. Fe$ #inan ial rises ha.e been sorted out in %odern ti%es $ithout %assi.e 'o.ern%ent inter.ention. ,n reasin'ly, o##i ials are o%in' to the on lusion that e.en %ore %i'ht be needed. A bi' "roble%: The Fed an and has "ro.ided short* ter% %oney to sound, but stru''lin', institutions that are out o# #a.or. ,t an, and has, redu ed the interest rates it in#luen es to atte%"t to redu e borro$in' osts throu'h the e ono%y and en oura'e in.est%ent and s"endin'. ;ut it is ill*e7ui""ed to "ro.ide the a"ital that #inan ial institutions no$ des"erately need to shore u" their #inan es and e6"and lendin'. Resol tion Tr st 'cenario ,n nor%al ti%es, a"ital*star.ed o%"anies usually an raise %oney on their o$n. ,n the urrent risis, a nu%ber o# bi' +all <treet #ir%s, in ludin' =iti'rou" ,n ., ha.e turned to so.erei'n*$ealth #unds, the 'o.ern%ent* ontrolled "ools o# %oney. ;ut both on +all <treet and in +ashin'ton, there is in reasin' e6"e tation that 0.<. ta6"ayers $ill either ta)e the bad assets o## the hands o# #inan ial institutions so they an raise a"ital, or "ut ta6"ayer a"ital into the o%"anies, as the Treasury has a'reed to do $ith %ort'a'e 'iants Fannie Mae and Freddie Ma . 9ne "ro"osal $as raised by ;arney Fran), the Massa husetts -e%o rat $ho is hair%an o# the (ouse Finan ial <er.i es =o%%ittee. /e". Fran) is loo)in' at $hether to reate an analo' to the /esolution Trust =or"., $hi h too) assets #ro% #ailed ban)s and thri#ts and #ound buyers o.er se.eral years. 5+hen you ha.e a bi' loss in the %ar)et"la e, there are only three "eo"le that an ta)e the loss ** the bondholders, the shareholders and the 'o.ern%ent,5 said +illia% <eid%an, $ho led the /T= #ro% 2D8D to 2DD2. 5That&s the dan e $e&re seein' ri'ht no$. Are $e 'oin' to sho.e this loss into the hands o# the ta6"ayersG5 The /T= see%ed ontro.ersial and a%bitious at the ti%e. Any .ersion today $ould be e.en %ore o%"le6. The /T= dis"ensed %ostly o# o%%er ial real estate. Today&s troubled assets are o%"le6 debt se urities ** %any o# $hi h in lude "ie es o# other instru%ents, $hi h in turn in lude "ie es o# others, %any ste"s re%o.ed #ro% the a tual %ort'a'es or onsu%er loans on $hi h they are based. 0nra.elin' these strands $ill be tedious and 'ettin' at the underlyin' ollateral, di##i ult. ,n the early sta'es o# this risis, re'ulators sa$ that their rules didn&t #it the ra"idly han'in' #inan ial syste% they $ere as)ed to o.ersee. ,n.est%ent ban)s, at the ore o# the risis, $eren&t as losely %onitored by the <e urities and E6 han'e =o%%ission as o%%er ial ban)s $ere by their re'ulators. The 'o.ern%ent has a syste% to lose #ailed ban)s, reated a#ter the @reat -e"ression in "art to a.oid sudden runs by de"ositors. 1o$, runs ha""en in s"heres re'ulators %ay not #ully understand, su h as the re"ur hase a'ree%ent, or re"o, %ar)et, in $hi h in.est%ent ban)s #und their day*to*day o"erations. And re'ulators
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ha.e no "ro ess #or handlin' the #ailure o# an in.est%ent ban) li)e Leh%an ;rothers (oldin's ,n . ,nsurers li)e A,@ aren&t e.en #ederally re'ulated. /e'ulators ha.e all but "ro%ised that %ore ban)s $ill #ail in the o%in' %onths. The Federal -e"osit ,nsuran e =or". is dra$in' u" a "lan to raise the "re%iu%s it har'es ban)s so that it an rebuild the #und it uses to ba ) de"osits. E6a%iners are ti'htenin' their leash on ban)s a ross the ountry. Pleasant %ystery 9ne "leasant %ystery is $hy the risis hasn&t hit the e ono%y harder ** at least so #ar. 5This #inan ial risis hasn&t yet translated into #e$er... o%"anies startin' u", less resear h and de.elo"%ent, less %ar)etin',5 ,.an <eidenber', hie# e6e uti.e o# ?eriAon =o%%uni ations, said +ednesday. 5+e ha.en&t seen that yet. ,&% sure e.ery o%"any is )ee"in' their eyes on it.5 At 6.2T, the une%"loy%ent rate re%ains $ell belo$ the "ea) o# 7.8T in 2DD!, a%id the <RL risis. ,n "art, that&s be ause 'o.ern%ent has rea ted a''ressi.ely. The Fed&s lassi %ista)e that led to the @reat -e"ression $as that it ti'htened %onetary "oli y $hen it should ha.e eased. Mr. ;ernan)e didn&t re"eat that error. And =on'ress %o.ed %ore s$i#tly to a""ro.e #is al sti%ulus than %ost +ashin'ton .eterans thou'ht "ossible. ,n "art, the broader e ono%y has held %ostly steady be ause e6"orts ha.e been so stron' at Must the ri'ht %o%ent, a re%inder o# the 'lobal e ono%y&s i%"ortan e to the 0.<. And in "art, it&s be ause the 0.<. e ono%y is de%onstratin' i%"ressi.e resilien e, as in#or%ation te hnolo'y allo$s e6e uti.es to rea t %ore 7ui )ly to e%er'in' "roble%s and ** to the dis o%#ort o# $or)ers ** o%"anies are 7ui )er to adMust $a'es, hirin' and $or) hours $hen the e ono%y so#tens. ;ut the ris) re%ains that +all <treet&s $oes $ill s"read to Main <treet, as redit ti'htens #or onsu%ers and business. Already, 0.<. auto %a)ers ha.e been #or ed to ti'hten the ter%s on their leasin' "ro'ra%s, or abandon $ritin' leases the%sel.es alto'ether, be ause o# "roble%s in their #inan e units. @old%an <a hs e ono%ists& o"ti%isti s enario is a ou"le years o# %ild re ession or "ain#ully slo$ e ono%y 'ro$th. LAaron Lu hetti, Mar) +hitehouse, @re'ory Iu )er%an and <udee" /eddy ontributed to this arti le.

737 U.S. Military Bases = Global Empire

2y ?halmers 1ohnson, )etropolitan 2oo9s Posted on &e$ruary 13, 2!!4, Printed on 1uly 11, 2!!4 Once upon a time, you could trace the spread of imperialism $y countin# up colonies. ,mericaHs version of the colony is the military $ase. 2y followin# the chan#in# politics of
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#lo$al $asin#, one can learn much a$out our ever lar#er imperial stance and the militarism that #rows with it. )ilitarism and imperialism are Siamese twins <oined at the hip. .ach thrives off the other. 5arrisoning the 5*o.e In 2!!3, .orbes ma#a>ine revealed that media mo#ul "ed "urner was ,mericaHs top land $aron -- with a total of 1.' million acres across the 6.S. "he nationHs ten lar#est landowners, &or$es reported, Down 1!.0 million acres, or one out of every 214 acres in the country.D Impressive as this total was, the Penta#on puts "urner and the entire pac9 of me#a-landlords to shame with over 23 million acres in 6.S. landholdin#s. ,$road, the Penta#onHs DfootprintD is also that of a #iant. &or e%ample, the epartment of efense controls 2!I of the 1apanese island of O9inawa and, accordin# to /tars and /tripes, Downs a$out 2( percent of Guam.D )ere land ownership, however, is <ust the tip of the ice$er#. In his 2!!+ $oo9, "he Sorrows of .mpire, ?halmers 1ohnson opened the worldHs eyes to the si>e of the Penta#onHs #lo$al footprint, notin# that the epartment of efense 7 o 8 was deployin# nearly 2((,!!! military personnel at 42( $ases in 3' countries. Since then, the total num$er of overseas $ases has increased to at least 400 and, accordin# to a report $y the ?on#ressional Cesearch Service, may actually $e as hi#h as '(!. Still, even these num$ers donHt $e#in to capture the #lo$al sprawl of the or#ani>ation that una$ashedly refers to itself as Done of the worldHs lar#est landlords.HD "he o Hs Dreal property portfolio,D accordin# to 2!!0 fi#ures, consists of a total of 3,431 sites. Over 2!I of these sites are located on more than 411,!!! acres outside of the 6.S. and its territories. @et even these num$ers turn out to $e a drastic undercount. ,ll told, the epartment of efense owns up to havin# Dover M1 trillion in assets and M1.0 trillion in lia$ilities.D Still, to $e#in to #rasp the Penta#onHs #lo$al immensity, it helps to loo9, a#ain, at its land holdin#s -- all 12!,131 s:uare 9ilometers which are almost e%actly the si>e of /orth Gorea 712!,(3' s:uare 9ilometers8. "hese holdin#s are lar#er than any of the followin# nations5 Bi$eria, 2ul#aria, Guatemala, South Gorea, Fun#ary, Portu#al, 1ordan, Guwait, Israel, enmar9, Geor#ia, or ,ustria. "he 4,(1' s:uare 9ilometers of 2! micro-states -- the Aatican, )onaco, /auru, "uvalu, San )arino, Biechtenstein, Saint Gitts and /evis, )aldives, )alta, Saint Aincent and the Grenadines, 2ar$ados, ,nti#ua and 2ar$uda, Seychelles, ,ndorra, 2ahrain, Saint Bucia, Sin#apore, the &ederated States of )icronesia, Giri$ati and "on#a -- combined pales in comparison to the 3,3!4 s:uare 9ilometers of <ust one military $ase, -hite Sands )issile Can#e. Our installations a$road $rin# profits to civilian industries, which desi#n and manufacture weapons for the armed forces or, li9e the now well-pu$lici>ed Gello##, 2rown O Coot company, a su$sidiary of the Falli$urton ?orporation of Fouston, underta9e contract services to $uild and maintain our far-flun# outposts. One tas9 of such contractors is to 9eep uniformed mem$ers of the imperium housed in comforta$le :uarters, well fed, amused, and supplied with en<oya$le, afforda$le vacation facilities. -hole sectors of the ,merican economy have come to rely on the military for sales. On the eve of our second war on Ira:, for e%ample, while the efense epartment was orderin# up an e%tra ration of cruise missiles and depleted-uranium armor-piercin# tan9 shells, it also ac:uired 243,!!! $ottles of /ative "an sun$loc9, almost triple its 1333 order and undou$tedly a $oon to the supplier, ?ontrol
60

Supply ?ompany of "ulsa, O9lahoma, and its su$contractor, Sun &un Products of aytona 2each, &lorida. At ?east e+en 9undred Coreign =ases ItHs not easy to assess the si>e or e%act value of our empire of $ases. Official records on these su$<ects are misleadin#, althou#h instructive. ,ccordin# to the efense epartmentHs annual D2ase Structure CeportD for fiscal year 2!!3, which itemi>es forei#n and domestic 6.S. military real estate, the Penta#on currently owns or rents 4!2 overseas $ases in a$out 13! countries and F,S another 0,!!! $ases in the 6nited States and its territories. Penta#on $ureaucrats calculate that it would re:uire at least M113.2 $illion to replace <ust the forei#n $ases -- surely far too low a fi#ure $ut still lar#er than the #ross domestic product of most countries -- and an estimated M(31.( $illion to replace all of them. "he military hi#h command deploys to our overseas $ases some 2(3,2'' uniformed personnel, plus an e:ual num$er of dependents and epartment of efense civilian officials, and employs an additional ++,++0 locally hired forei#ners. "he Penta#on claims that these $ases contain ++,'4! $arrac9s, han#ars, hospitals, and other $uildin#s, which it owns, and that it leases +,'++ more. "hese num$ers, althou#h sta##erin#ly lar#e, do not $e#in to cover all the actual $ases we occupy #lo$ally. "he 2!!3 2ase Status Ceport fails to mention, for instance, any #arrisons in Gosovo -- even thou#h it is the site of the hu#e ?amp 2ondsteel, $uilt in 1333 and maintained ever since $y Gello##, 2rown O Coot. "he Ceport similarly omits $ases in ,f#hanistan, Ira:, Israel, Guwait, Gyr#y>stan, =atar, and 6>$e9istan, althou#h the 6.S. military has esta$lished colossal $ase structures throu#hout the so-called arc of insta$ility in the two-and-a-half years since 3Q11. &or O9inawa, the southernmost island of 1apan, which has $een an ,merican military colony for the past (' years, the report deceptively lists only one )arine $ase, ?amp 2utler, when in fact O9inawa DhostsD ten )arine ?orps $ases, includin# )arine ?orps ,ir Station &utenma occupyin# 1,1'0 acres in the center of that modest-si>ed islandHs second lar#est city. 7)anhattanHs ?entral Par9, $y contrast, is only '+3 acres.8 "he Penta#on similarly fails to note all of the M(-$illion-worth of military and espiona#e installations in 2ritain, which have lon# $een conveniently dis#uised as Coyal ,ir &orce $ases. If there were an honest count, the actual si>e of our military empire would pro$a$ly top 1,!!! different $ases in other peopleHs countries, $ut no one -- possi$ly not even the Penta#on -- 9nows the e%act num$er for sure, althou#h it has $een distinctly on the rise in recent years. &or their occupants, these are not unpleasant places to live and wor9. )ilitary service today, which is voluntary, $ears almost no relation to the duties of a soldier durin# -orld -ar II or the Gorean or Aietnamese wars. )ost chores li9e laundry, GP 7D9itchen policeD8, mail call, and cleanin# latrines have $een su$contracted to private military companies li9e Gello##, 2rown O Coot, yn?orp, and the Ainnell ?orporation. &ully one-third of the funds recently appropriated for the war in Ira: 7a$out M3! $illion8, for instance, are #oin# into private ,merican hands for e%actly such services. -here possi$le everythin# is done to ma9e daily e%istence seem li9e a Follywood version of life at home. ,ccordin# to the Washington Post, in &allu<ah, <ust west of 2a#hdad, waiters in white shirts, $lac9 pants, and $lac9 $ow ties serve dinner to the officers of the '2nd ,ir$orne ivision in their heavily #uarded compound, and the first 2ur#er Gin# has already #one up inside the enormous military $ase weHve esta$lished at 2a#hdad International ,irport.
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Some of these $ases are so #i#antic they re:uire as many as nine internal $us routes for soldiers and civilian contractors to #et around inside the earthen $erms and concertina wire. "hatHs the case at ?amp ,naconda, head:uarters of the 3rd 2ri#ade, +th Infantry ivision, whose <o$ is to police some 1,(!! s:uare miles of Ira: north of 2a#hdad, from Samarra to "a<i. ,naconda occupies 2( s:uare 9ilometers and will ultimately house as many as 2!,!!! troops. espite e%tensive security precautions, the $ase has fre:uently come under mortar attac9, nota$ly on the &ourth of 1uly, 2!!3, <ust as ,rnold Schwar>ene##er was chattin# up our wounded at the local field hospital. "he military prefers $ases that resem$le small fundamentalist towns in the 2i$le 2elt rather than the $i# population centers of the 6nited States. &or e%ample, even thou#h more than 1!!,!!! women live on our overseas $ases -- includin# women in the services, spouses, and relatives of military personnel -- o$tainin# an a$ortion at a local military hospital is prohi$ited. Since there are some 1+,!!! se%ual assaults or attempted se%ual assaults each year in the military, women who $ecome pre#nant overseas and want an a$ortion have no choice $ut to try the local economy, which cannot $e either easy or pleasant in 2a#hdad or other parts of our empire these days. Our armed missionaries live in a closed-off, self-contained world serviced $y its own airline -- the ,ir )o$ility ?ommand, with its fleet of lon#-ran#e ?-14 Glo$emasters, ?-( Gala%ies, ?-1+1 Starlifters, G?-13( Stratotan9ers, G?-1! .%tenders, and ?-3 /i#htin#ales that lin9 our far-flun# outposts from Greenland to ,ustralia. &or #enerals and admirals, the military provides seventy-one Bear<ets, thirteen Gulfstream IIIs, and seventeen ?essna ?itation lu%ury <ets to fly them to such spots as the armed forcesH s9i and vacation center at Garmisch in the 2avarian ,lps or to any of the 23+ military #olf courses the Penta#on operates worldwide. efense secretary onald Cumsfeld flies around in his own personal 2oein# 4(4, called a ?32, in the ,ir &orce. Our "Cootprint" on the )or*d Of all the insensitive, if #raphic, metaphors weHve allowed into our voca$ulary, none :uite e:uals DfootprintD to descri$e the military impact of our empire. ?hairman of the 1oint ?hiefs of Staff Gen. Cichard )yers and senior mem$ers of the SenateHs )ilitary ?onstruction Su$committee such as ianne &einstein 7 -?,8 are apparently incapa$le of completin# a sentence without usin# it. .sta$lishin# a more impressive footprint has now $ecome part of the new <ustification for a ma<or enlar#ement of our empire -- and an announced repositionin# of our $ases and forces a$road -- in the wa9e of our con:uest of Ira:. "he man in char#e of this pro<ect is ,ndy Foehn, deputy assistant secretary of defense for strate#y. Fe and his collea#ues are supposed to draw up plans to implement President 2ushHs preventive war strate#y a#ainst Dro#ue states,D D$ad #uys,D and Devil-doers.D "hey have identified somethin# they call the Darc of insta$ility,D which is said to run from the ,ndean re#ion of South ,merica 7read5 ?olom$ia8 throu#h /orth ,frica and then sweeps across the )iddle .ast to the Philippines and Indonesia. "his is, of course, more or less identical with what used to $e called the "hird -orld -- and perhaps no less crucially it covers the worldHs 9ey oil reserves. Foehn contends, D-hen you overlay our footprint onto that, we donHt loo9 particularly well-positioned to deal with the pro$lems weHre now #oin# to confront.D Once upon a time, you could trace the spread of imperialism $y countin# up colonies. ,mericaHs version of the colony is the military $ase. 2y followin# the chan#in# politics of #lo$al $asin#, one can learn much a$out our ever lar#er imperial stance and the militarism
62

that #rows with it. )ilitarism and imperialism are Siamese twins <oined at the hip. .ach thrives off the other. ,lready hi#hly advanced in our country, they are $oth on the ver#e of a :uantum leap that will almost surely stretch our military $eyond its capa$ilities, $rin#in# a$out fiscal insolvency and very possi$ly doin# mortal dama#e to our repu$lican institutions. "he only way this is discussed in our press is via reporta#e on hi#hly arcane plans for chan#es in $asin# policy and the positionin# of troops a$road -- and these plans, as reported in the media, cannot $e ta9en at face value. )arine 2ri#. Gen. )astin Co$eson, commandin# our 1,'!! troops occupyin# the old &rench &orei#n Be#ion $ase at ?amp Bemonier in <i$outi at the entrance to the Ced Sea, claims that in order to put Dpreventive warD into action, we re:uire a D#lo$al presence,D $y which he means #ainin# he#emony over any place that is not already under our thum$. ,ccordin# to the ri#ht-win# ,merican .nterprise Institute, the idea is to create Da #lo$al cavalryD that can ride in from Dfrontier stoc9adesD and shoot up the D$ad #uysD as soon as we #et some intelli#ence on them. "?i*" Pads" in Austra*ia, 2o!ania, Ma*i, A*geria # # # In order to put our forces close to every hot spot or dan#er area in this newly discovered arc of insta$ility, the Penta#on has $een proposin# -- this is usually called Drepositionin#D -many new $ases, includin# at least four and perhaps as many as si% permanent ones in Ira:. , num$er of these are already under construction -- at 2a#hdad International ,irport, "allil air $ase near /asariyah, in the western desert near the Syrian $order, and at 2ashur air field in the Gurdish re#ion of the north. 7"his does not count the previously mentioned ,naconda, which is currently $ein# called an Doperatin# $ase,D thou#h it may very well $ecome permanent over time.8 In addition, we plan to 9eep under our control the whole northern :uarter of Guwait -- 1,0!! s:uare miles out of GuwaitHs 0,3!! s:uare miles -- that we now use to resupply our Ira: le#ions and as a place for Green Pone $ureaucrats to rela%. Other countries mentioned as sites for what ?olin Powell calls our new Dfamily of $asesD include5 In the impoverished areas of the DnewD .urope -- Comania, Poland, and 2ul#aria; in ,sia -- Pa9istan 7where we already have four $ases8, India, ,ustralia, Sin#apore, )alaysia, the Philippines, and even, un$elieva$ly, Aietnam; in /orth ,frica -- )orocco, "unisia, and especially ,l#eria 7scene of the slau#hter of some 1!!,!! civilians since 1332, when, to :uash an election, the military too9 over, $ac9ed $y our country and &rance8; and in -est ,frica -- Sene#al, Ghana, )ali, and Sierra Beone 7even thou#h it has $een torn $y civil war since 13318. "he models for all these new installations, accordin# to Penta#on sources, are the strin# of $ases we have $uilt around the Persian Gulf in the last two decades in such antidemocratic autocracies as 2ahrain, Guwait, =atar, Oman, and the 6nited ,ra$ .mirates. )ost of these new $ases will $e what the military, in a switch of metaphors, calls Dlily padsD to which our troops could <ump li9e so many well-armed fro#s from the homeland, our remainin# /,"O $ases, or $ases in the docile satellites of 1apan and 2ritain. "o offset the e%pense involved in such e%pansion, the Penta#on lea9s plans to close many of the hu#e ?old -ar military reservations in Germany, South Gorea, and perhaps O9inawa as part of Secretary of efense CumsfeldHs Drationali>ationD of our armed forces. In the wa9e of the Ira: victory, the 6.S. has already withdrawn virtually all of its forces from Saudi ,ra$ia and "ur9ey, partially as a way of punishin# them for not supportin# the war stron#ly enou#h. It wants to do the same thin# to South Gorea, perhaps the most anti-,merican democracy on .arth today, which would free up the 2nd Infantry ivision on the demilitari>ed >one with
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/orth Gorea for pro$a$le deployment to Ira:, where our forces are si#nificantly overstretched. In .urope, these plans include #ivin# up several $ases in Germany, also in part $ecause of ?hancellor Gerhard SchrderHs domestically popular defiance of 2ush over Ira:. 2ut the de#ree to which we are capa$le of doin# so may prove limited indeed. ,t the simplest level, the Penta#onHs planners do not really seem to #rasp <ust how many $uildin#s the 41,4!2 soldiers and airmen in Germany alone occupy and how e%pensive it would $e to reposition most of them and $uild even sli#htly compara$le $ases, to#ether with the necessary infrastructure, in former ?ommunist countries li9e Comania, one of .uropeHs poorest countries. Bt. ?ol. ,my .hmann in Fanau, Germany, has said to the press D"hereHs no place to put these peopleD in Comania, 2ul#aria, or <i$outi, and she predicts that '!I of them will in the end stay in Germany. ItHs also certain that #enerals of the hi#h command have no intention of livin# in $ac9waters li9e ?onstanta, Comania, and will 9eep the 6.S. military head:uarters in Stutt#art while holdin# on to Camstein ,ir &orce 2ase, Span#dahlem ,ir &orce 2ase, and the Grafenwhr "rainin# ,rea. One reason why the Penta#on is considerin# movin# out of rich democracies li9e Germany and South Gorea and loo9s covetously at military dictatorships and poverty-stric9en dependencies is to ta9e advanta#e of what the Penta#on calls their Dmore permissive environmental re#ulations.D "he Penta#on always imposes on countries in which it deploys our forces so-called Status of &orces ,#reements, which usually e%empt the 6nited States from cleanin# up or payin# for the environmental dama#e it causes. "his is a standin# #rievance in O9inawa, where the ,merican environmental record has $een nothin# short of a$omina$le. Part of this attitude is simply the desire of the Penta#on to put itself $eyond any of the restraints that #overn civilian life, an attitude increasin#ly at play in the DhomelandD as well. &or e%ample, the 2!!+ defense authori>ation $ill of M+!1.3 $illion that President 2ush si#ned into law in /ovem$er 2!!3 e%empts the military from a$idin# $y the .ndan#ered Species ,ct and the )arine )ammal Protection ,ct. -hile there is every reason to $elieve that the impulse to create ever more lily pads in the "hird -orld remains unchec9ed, there are several reasons to dou$t that some of the more #randiose plans, for either e%pansion or downsi>in#, will ever $e put into effect or, if they are, that they will do anythin# other than ma9e the pro$lem of terrorism worse than it is. &or one thin#, Cussia is opposed to the e%pansion of 6.S. military power on its $orders and is already movin# to chec9mate ,merican $asin# sorties into places li9e Geor#ia, Gyr#y>stan, and 6>$e9istan. "he first post-Soviet-era Cussian air$ase in Gyr#y>stan has <ust $een completed forty miles from the 6.S. $ase at 2ish9e9, and in ecem$er 2!!3, the dictator of 6>$e9istan, Islam Garimov, declared that he would not permit a permanent deployment of 6.S. forces in his country even thou#h we already have a $ase there. -hen it comes to downsi>in#, on the other hand, domestic politics may come into play. 2y law the Penta#onHs 2ase Ceali#nment and ?losin# ?ommission must su$mit its fifth and final list of domestic $ases to $e shut down to the -hite Fouse $y Septem$er ', 2!!(. ,s an efficiency measure, Secretary of efense Cumsfeld has said heHd li9e to $e rid of at least onethird of domestic ,rmy $ases and one-:uarter of domestic ,ir &orce $ases, which is sure to produce a political firestorm on ?apitol Fill. In order to protect their respective statesH $ases, the two mother hens of the SenateHs )ilitary ?onstruction ,ppropriations Su$committee, Gay 2ailey Futchison 7C-"X8 and ianne &einstein, are demandin# that the Penta#on close overseas $ases first and $rin# the troops now stationed there home to domestic $ases, which
64

could then remain open. Futchison and &einstein included in the )ilitary ,ppropriations ,ct of 2!!+ money for an independent commission to investi#ate and report on overseas $ases that are no lon#er needed. "he 2ush administration opposed this provision of the ,ct $ut it passed anyway and the president si#ned it into law on /ovem$er 22, 2!!3. "he Penta#on is pro$a$ly adept enou#h to hamstrin# the commission, $ut a domestic $ase-closin# furor clearly looms on the hori>on. 2y far the #reatest defect in the D#lo$al cavalryD strate#y, however, is that it accentuates -ashin#tonHs impulse to apply irrelevant military remedies to terrorism. ,s the prominent 2ritish military historian, ?orrelli 2arnett, has o$served, the 6.S. attac9s on ,f#hanistan and Ira: only increased the threat of al-=aeda. &rom 1333 throu#h the 3Q11 assaults of 2!!1, there were five ma<or al-=aeda attac9s worldwide; in the two years since then there have $een seventeen such $om$in#s, includin# the Istan$ul suicide assaults on the 2ritish consulate and an FS2? 2an9. )ilitary operations a#ainst terrorists are not the solution. ,s 2arnett puts it, DCather than 9ic9in# down front doors and $ar#in# into ancient and comple% societies with simple nostrums of Hfreedom and democracy,H we need tactics of cunnin# and su$tlety, $ased on a profound understandin# of the people and cultures we are dealin# with -- an understandin# up till now entirely lac9in# in the top-level policy-ma9ers in -ashin#ton, especially in the Penta#on.D In his notorious Dlon#, hard slo#D memo on Ira: of Octo$er 10, 2!!3, efense secretary Cumsfeld wrote, D"oday, we lac9 metrics to 9now if we are winnin# or losin# the #lo$al war on terror.D ?orrelli-2arnettHs DmetricsD indicate otherwise. 2ut the Dwar on terrorismD is at $est only a small part of the reason for all our military strate#i>in#. "he real reason for constructin# this new rin# of ,merican $ases alon# the e:uator is to e%pand our empire and reinforce our military domination of the world. Chalmers 5ohnson6s latest boo' is The /orro(s of Empire: Militarism- /ecrecy- and the End of the )epublic 7Metropolitan89 His pre!ious boo'- :lo(bac': The Costs and Conse;uences of American Empire- has <ust been updated (ith a ne( introduction9 ?opyri#ht ?2!!+ ?halmers 1ohnson In the words of /oam ?homs9y, a venera$le critic of ,merican imperialism5 D-here spendin# is risin#, as in military supplemental $ills to conduct the wars in Ira: and ,f#hanistan, it would sharply decline. -here spendin# is steady or declinin# 7health, education, <o$ trainin#, the promotion of ener#y conservation and renewa$le ener#y sources, veterans $enefits, fundin# for the 6/ and 6/ peace9eepin# operations, and so on8, it would sharply increase. 2ushHs ta% cuts for people with incomes over M2!!,!!! a year would $e immediately rescinded.D Such reforms would $e#in at once to reduce the malevolent influence of the militaryindustrial comple%, $ut many other areas would re:uire attention as well. ,s part of the process of de-#arrisonin# the planet and li:uidatin# our empire, we would have to launch an orderly closin#-up process for at least 4!! of the 434 military $ases we maintain 7$y official Penta#on count8 in over 13! forei#n countries on every continent e%cept ,ntarctica. -e should ultimately aim at closin# all our imperialist enclaves, $ut in order to avoid isolationism and maintain a capacity to assist the 6nited /ations in #lo$al peace9eepin# operations, we should, for the time $ein#, pro$a$ly retain some 34 of them, mostly naval and air $ases.
65

6and Grab on a Global 'cale

by -ennis MartineA A%on' the En'lish*s"ea)in' settler so ieties L 0.<., =anada, Australia, 1e$ Iealand L an irrational but "o$er#ul %yth still "re.ails. ,t dro.e J%ani#est destinyK and is still ali.e and $ell, i# usually un ons ious. -i.inely ins"ired olonists $rested lands o u"ied by nati.e "eo"les and besto$ed the %i6ed blessin's o# i.iliAation on the%. The rationaliAation #or dis"ossession then L and no$ L $as that these J"ri%iti.eK "eo"les $ere not %a)in' "rodu ti.e use o# their lands. +hat they did not )no$, and still do not, is that they too) o.er lands that $ere lar'ely sha"ed and %aintained by indi'enous "eo"les throu'h e6tensi.e and intensi.e land are "ra ti es that enabled the% to not only sur.i.e but also thri.e. Enter the !2st entury. The $or) o# indi'enous dis"ossession is about to be o%"leted. The last 'reat 'lobal land 'rab and indi'enous asset stri""in' is ha""enin' as , $rite. B, borro$ed these "hrases #ro% /ebe a Ada%son o# First Peo"les +orld$ide and Andy +hite o# /i'hts and /esour es ,nitiati.e at a %eetin' o# the +orld ;an) that , "arti i"ated in.C +e ha.e a bi' "roble%. <o%e unintended out o%es o# $ell*intentioned li%ate %iti'ation %easures are belo$ the %edia radar s reen. Land .alues are dra%ati ally in reasin' be ause o# de%and by northern %ultinational or"orations #or land to "rodu e bio#uels, "lantation %ono ultures #or arbon tradin' o##sets and trans#at substitutes su h as "al% oil in the de.elo"in' south. ,ndi'enous "eo"les "resently o u"y !! "er ent o# the EarthNs land sur#a e, are ste$ards o# 80 "er ent o# re%ainin' biodi.ersity and o%"rise D0 "er ent o# ultural di.ersity. As de%and in reases the .alue o# indi'enous lands L already "oorly "rote ted L the rate o# loss o# indi'enous assets and li.elihood o"tions be o%es %ore ra"id. Addin' to these losses are losses o# ho%elands set aside by bi' en.iron%ental 1@9s and third*$orld 'o.ern%ent elites #or onser.ation reser.es and "ar)s throu'h #or ed e.i tions. Also disa""earin' is 'lobal 'eneti di.ersity %aintained by indi'enous "eo"les, $hi h is essential #or %aintainin' the a"a ity o# "lants and ani%als to ada"t to li%ate han'e. -isa""earin' $ith land and resour es are an in al ulable $ealth o# ste$ardshi" e6"erien e and )no$led'e. ;ut li%ate han'e is here. +hile the de.elo"ed north B$estC is s ra%blin' #or solutions, indi'enous "eo"les are re ei.in' the brunt o# the e##e ts o# li%ate han'e aused by the north. ,'nored in the 'lobal debate are indi'enous ultures that ha.e sur.i.ed inta t #or %illennia $hile J'reatK i.iliAations ha.e re"eatedly olla"sed. ,ndi'enous "eo"les are neither noble nor i'noble. <o%e ha.e %ade en.iron%ental %ista)es in the "ast and did not sur.i.e. The ultures that sur.i.ed ha.e done so in "ro"ortion as they ha.e learned to ada"t. They are Must "eo"le li)e e.eryone else, but "eo"le $ith 'reat "ra ti al )no$*ho$. The urrent e ono%i asy%%etry is the result o# the %yth that $ealth $ill e.entually #ilter do$n to the "oor throu'h so* alled #ree trade and s"e ulati.e 'lobal %ar)ets. ;ut as the $ealth o# a s%all nu%ber o# "ri.ile'ed indi.iduals has in reased, $orld "o.erty has in reased #i.e#old. The /io =on.ention on ;iolo'i al -i.ersity B2DD!C, Arti le 8 BMC, and A'enda !2 a##ir%ed that indi'enous ultures "rote t biodi.ersity and should be o%"ensated #or their sustainable "ra ti es and "rodu ts. ;ut the 0.<.*do%inated 0ru'uay round o# @ATT in the sa%e year e##e ti.ely shut out indi'enous "eo"les #ro% any "rote tion or o%"ensation.

66

,n the %eanti%e the $orld is losin' its best strate'y #or %iti'atin' li%ate han'e L .iable indi'enous ultures $ho are the ste$ards o# 'eneti di.ersity throu'h traditional land "ra ti es. They $ill also lose the ontinuin' ontributions o# nati.e )no$led'e to %edi ine, sustainable a'ri ulture, health "rodu ts, lubri ants, o%%on #oods, $ildli#e and #isheries %ana'e%ent, and %ore. The toba o industry is no$ liable #or osts to states #or "ayin' s%o)ersN health bills. +hy not hold the de.elo"ed nations a ountable #or the da%a'e to e osyste%s and indi'enous e osyste% "eo"les $ho are su##erin' #ro% li%ate han'e that they didnNt auseG +here is the a ountabilityG +hy not su""ort e6istin' national and international la$s and treaties that are si%"ly i'noredG +e do not $ant .i ti%hood. +e $ant "arity and o%"ensation throu'h re o'nition o# our substantial ontributions to your $ealth. ,t is not an Jethni K issue. ,ndi'enous "eo"les are the %inerNs anary. ,t is about the sur.i.al o# all hu%ans and it is about the loss o# the olle ti.e herita'e o# our s"e ies. ,t is all o# our lands and all o# our assets that are bein' stolen by e ono%i ri%inals. They bene#it and $e "ay. Dennis 2ar ine3 is founder and co4chairman of he $ndigenous Peo,les' 5es ora ion !e #ork of he &ocie y for +cological 5es ora ion $n erna ional% H2DD6*!008 <eattle Post*,ntelli'en er

Warnin. ,n Warmin.
/' /ill M+Ki&&(n Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers <o)%ribu%io) o& Wor"i)/ Grou* 4 %o %h# 0our%h A!!#!!m#)% @#*or% o& %h# 4)%#r/ov#r)m#)%al (a)#l o) <lima%# <ha)/#. 4(<<, 18 **., availabl# a% +++.u!/.r*./ov1u!/.r*1li)"!1i*...h%mN4+/1 Wh#) %h# 4)%#r/ov#r)m#)%al (a)#l o) <lima%# <ha)/# (4(<< i!!u#$ i%! la%#!% r#*or% i) #arl' 0#bruar', i% +a! /r##%#$ +i%h !ho.": OWorl$ Wa"#! %o <lima%# <a%a!%ro*h#,O r#*or%#$ a) Au!%ralia) *a*#r. ;u% /lobal +armi)/ i! b' )o+ a !.i#)%i&i. &i#l$ +i%h a &airl' #2%#)!iv# hi!%or', a)$ %ha% hi!%or' h#l*! !#% %h# )#+ &i)$i)/! i) .o)%#2%M a .o)%#2% %ha% ma"#! %h# )#+ r#*or% )o l#!! %#rri&'i)/ bu% mu.h mor# %#lli)/ &or i%! u)!%a%#$ *oli%i.al im*li.a%io)!. Al%hou/h a%mo!*h#ri. !.i#)%i!%! ha$ !%u$i#$ %h# *robl#m &or $#.a$#!, /lobal +armi)/ &ir!% #m#r/#$ a! a *ubli. i!!u# i) 1988 +h#) 7am#! -a)!#), a NACA !.i#)%i!%, %ol$ <o)/r#!! %ha% hi! r#!#ar.h, a)$ %h# +or" o& a ha)$&ul o& o%h#r !.i#)%i!%!, i)$i.a%#$ %ha% huma) b#i)/! +#r# $a)/#rou!l' h#a%i)/ %h# *la)#%, *ar%i.ularl' %hrou/h %h# u!# o& &o!!il &u#l!. 3hi! bol$ a))ou).#m#)% !#% o&& a !.i#)%i&i. a)$ *oli%i.al &uror: ma)' *h'!i.i!%! a)$ .h#mi!%! *la'#$ $o+) %h# *o!!ibili%' o& !#riou! harm, a)$ ma)' /ov#r)m#)%!, %hou/h &##li)/ *r#!!ur# %o r#a.%, $i$ li%%l# %o r#!%rai) %h# u!# o& &o!!il &u#l. O6or# r#!#ar.hO +a! %h# ma)%ra #v#r'o)# a$o*%#$, a)$ &u)$i)/ &or i% &lo+#$ &r##l' &rom /ov#r)m#)%! a)$ &ou)$a%io)!. A)$#r %h# au!*i.#! o& %h# A)i%#$ Na%io)!, !.i#)%i!%! a)$ /ov#r)m#)%! !#% u* a .uriou! h'bri$, %h# 4(<<, %o %ra." a)$ r#*or% o) %h# *ro/r#!! o& %ha% r#!#ar.h.

67

0rom rou/hl' 1988 %o 1995, %h# h'*o%h#!i! %ha% bur)i)/ .oal a)$ /a! a)$ oil i) lar/# 9ua)%i%i#! +a! r#l#a!i)/ .arbo) $io2i$# a)$ o%h#r /a!#! %ha% +oul$ %ra* %h# !u)=! ra$ia%io) o) #ar%h a)$ $i!a!%rou!l' h#a% %h# *la)#% r#mai)#$ 5u!% %ha%: a h'*o%h#!i!. C.i#)%i!%! u!#$ #v#r' m#a)! a% %h#ir $i!*o!al %o r#.o)!%ru.% %h# hi!%or' o& %h# #ar%h=! .lima%# a)$ %o %ra." .urr#)% .ha)/#!. 0or #2am*l#, %h#' !%u$i#$ %h# .o).#)%ra%io) o& /r##)hou!# /a!#! i) a).i#)% air %ra**#$ i) /la.ial .or#!, !am*l#$ %h# a%mo!*h#r# +i%h +#a%h#r balloo)!, #2ami)#$ %h# r#la%iv# %hi.")#!! o& %r## ri)/!, a)$ ob!#rv#$ %h# &r#9u#).' o& vol.a)i. #ru*%io)!. 6o!% o& all, %h#' r#&i)#$ %h# !u*#r.om*u%#r mo$#l! o& %h# #ar%h=! a%mo!*h#r# i) a) #&&or% %o *r#$i.% %h# &u%ur# o& %h# +orl$=! +#a%h#r ;' 1995, %h# .#)%ral -#r.ul#a) %a!"! o& bo%h r#!#ar.h a)$ !')%h#!i! +#r# lar/#l' .om*l#%#. 3h# r#*or% %h# 4(<< i!!u#$ %ha% '#ar +a! abl# %o a!!#r% %ha% O%h# bala).# o& #vi$#).# !u//#!%!O %ha% huma) a.%ivi%' +a! i).r#a!i)/ %h# *la)#%=! %#m*#ra%ur# a)$ %ha% i% +oul$ b# a !#riou! *robl#m. 3hi! +a! *#rha*! %h# mo!% !i/)i&i.a)% +ar)i)/ our !*#.i#!, a! a +hol#, ha! '#% b##) /iv#). 3h# r#*or% $#.lar#$ (i) %h# *i).h#$ la)/ua/# o& i)%#r)a%io)al !.i#).# %ha% huma)! ha$ /ro+) !o lar/# i) )umb#r! a)$ #!*#.iall' i) a**#%i%# &or #)#r/' %ha% %h#' +#r# )o+ $ama/i)/ %h# mo!% ba!i. o& %h# #ar%h=! !'!%#m!M%h# bala).# b#%+##) i).omi)/ a)$ ou%/oi)/ !olar #)#r/'. Al%hou/h hu/# amou)%! o& im*r#!!iv# !.i#)%i&i. r#!#ar.h hav# .o)%i)u#$ ov#r %h# %+#lv# '#ar! !i).# %h#), %h#ir &i)$i)/! hav# #!!#)%iall' b##) .om*l#m#)%ar' %o %h# 1995 r#*or%Ma .o)!%a)% !%r#)/%h#)i)/ o& %h# !im*l# ba!i. %ru%h %ha% huma)! +#r# bur)i)/ %oo mu.h &o!!il &u#l. 3h# 1995 .o)!#)!u! +a! .o)vi).i)/ #)ou/h &or >uro*# a)$ 7a*a): %h# r#*or%=! !.i#)%i&i. &i)$i)/! +#r# %h# ba!i! &or %h# K'o%o )#/o%ia%io)! a)$ %h# %r#a%' %h#' *ro$u.#$: %ho!# !am# &i)$i)/! al!o l#$ mo!% o& %h# $#v#lo*#$ +orl$ %o *ro$u.# ambi%iou! *la)! &or r#$u.%io)! i) .arbo) #mi!!io)!. ;u% %h# .o)!#)!u! $i$)=% #2%#)$ %o Wa!hi)/%o), a)$ h#).# #v#r'o)# #l!#=! #&&or%! +#r# $##*l' .om*romi!#$ b' %h# Am#ri.a) u)+illi)/)#!! %o i).r#a!# %h# *ri.# o& #)#r/'. ,ur #mi!!io)! .o)%i)u#$ %o !oar, a)$ %h# *la)! o& ma)' o& %h# K'o%o .ou)%ri#! i) W#!%#r) >uro*# %o r#$u.# #mi!!io)! !*u%%#r#$. (A% %h# !am# %im#, mo!% %ra/i.all' o& all, <hi)a a)$ 4)$ia ha$ 5u!% b#/u) %h#ir ra*i$ i)$u!%rial %a"#o&&! u!i)/ *r#.i!#l' %h# %#.h)olo/i#! +# %h#) ")#+ +#r# +r#a"i)/ havo.: %h#' $i$ )o% !##" or &i)$ mu.h ai$ &rom %h# W#!%#r) .ou)%ri#! %ha% .oul$ hav# #).oura/#$ %h#m %o %a"# a mor# b#)i/) *a%h. 4) 2001 %h# 4(<< i!!u#$ i%! 3hir$ A!!#!!m#)% @#*or% (3A@ , bu% i% .oi).i$#$ +i%h %h# !%ar% o& %h# ;u!h a$mi)i!%ra%io), +hi.h r#&u!#$ #v#) %o .o)!i$#r a !#riou! *oli.' &or .lima%#. 3h# 4(<<=! )#+ 0our%h A!!#!!m#)% o& %hi! 0#bruar' (")o+) a! A@4 arriv#! a% a mor# .o)/#)ial mom#)%, a! %h# )#+ D#mo.ra%i. <o)/r#!! %a"#! u* a +i$# vari#%' o& l#/i!la%io) $#!i/)#$, &i)all', %o .urb #mi!!io)!. 3h# &i)$i)/ o& %h# )#+ r#*or% %ha% a%%ra.%#$ %h# mo!% a%%#)%io) i) %h# *r#!! +a! %ha% !.i#)%i!%! +#r# )o+ mor# .o)&i$#)% %ha) #v#r %ha% %h# +armi)/ +#=v# !##) !o &ar (abou% o)# $#/r## 0ahr#)h#i% i) %h# av#ra/# /lobal %#m*#ra%ur# +a! .au!#$ b' huma) b#i)/!. 4)!%#a$ o& b#i)/ m#r#l' Oli"#l',O %h# .o).lu!io) +a! )o+ Ov#r' li"#l',O +hi.h i) %h# 4(<<=! l#2i.o) m#a)! b#%%#r %ha) a 90 *#r.#)% .ha).#. ;u% i%=! b##) '#ar! !i).# a)' r#*u%abl# !.i#)%i!% !*#.ialiBi)/ i) .lima%# r#!#ar.h $oub%#$ %ha% .o).lu!io). 6or# im*or%a)% &i)$i)/! +#r# i/)or#$ i) a..ou)%! o& %h# r#*or% a)$ i) !om# .a!#! +#r# ob!.ur#$ b' %h# $o.um#)%=! v#r' *oor *ro!#, +hi.h i! mu.h mor# o*a9u# %ha) i%! *r#$#.#!!or!. 3ho!# &i)$i)/! i).lu$#:

68

 3h# amou)% o& .arbo) i) %h# a%mo!*h#r# i! )o+ i).r#a!i)/ a% a &a!%#r ra%# #v#) %ha)

b#&or#.
3#m*#ra%ur# i).r#a!#! +oul$ b# .o)!i$#rabl' hi/h#r %ha) %h#' hav# b##) !o &ar

+#r# i% )o% &or %h# bla)"#% o& !oo% a)$ o%h#r *ollu%io) %ha% i! %#m*oraril' h#l*i)/ %o .ool %h# *la)#%.
Al%#r)a%iv# #2*la)a%io)! &or !om# o& %h# +armi)/ (&or #2am*l#, !u)!*o% a.%ivi%' a)$

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4) !hor%, %h# )#+ r#*or% i! a r#mar"abl' .o)!#rva%iv# $o.um#)%. 3ha% i% i! !%ill &ri/h%#)i)/ i) i%! *r#$i.%io)! !im*l' i)$i.a%#! %h# hu/# ma/)i%u$# o& %h# .ha)/#! +#=r# )o+ .au!i)/, .ha)/#! &ar lar/#r %ha) mo!% *#o*l# &ull' u)$#r!%a)$. >v#) u!i)/ i%! .o)!#rva%iv# *ro5#.%io)!, %h# *a)#l !%a%#! u)#9uivo.all' %ha% %'*hoo)! a)$ hurri.a)#! +ill li"#l' b#.om# mor# i)%#)!#, %ha% !#a i.# +ill !hri)" a)$ *#rha*! $i!a**#ar i) %h# !umm#r%im# Ar.%i., %ha% !)o+ .ov#r +ill .o)%ra.%. 8a%#r %hi! '#ar, a !#.o)$ +or"i)/ /rou* +ill ou%li)# %h# #&&#.%! o& %h#!# .ha)/#! o) huma)!, %ra)!la%i)/ i).h#! o& !#a?l#v#l ri!# i)%o )umb#r! o& r#&u/##!, !ho+i)/ %h# #&&#.%! o& i).r#a!#! i) %#m*#ra%ur# a)$ humi$i%' o) malaria?.arr'i)/ mo!9ui%o#! a! +#ll a! %h# im*a.% o& h#a% +av#! o) .ro* lo!!#!. 3h# la)/ua/# +ill !%ill b# bloo$l#!!, bu% %h# &i)$i)/! obviou!l' +o)=%. 3h# 4(<< ha! al+a'! avoi$#$ %a"i)/ *oli%i.al *o!i%io)!Mi% $o#!)=% r#.omm#)$ !*#.i&i. *oli.i#!Ma)$ i% .o)%i)u#! %hi! %ra$i%io) +i%h i%! )#+ r#*or%. 4) i%! $i!.u!!io)! o& %h# mom#)%um o& .lima%# .ha)/#, ho+#v#r, i% $o#! i)%ro$u.# o)# *ar%i.ularl' $i!%urbi)/ !%a%i!%i.. ;#.au!# o& %h# %im# la/ b#%+##) .arbo) #mi!!io)! a)$ %h#ir #&&#.% o) air %#m*#ra%ur#, #v#) i& +# hal%#$ %h# i).r#a!# i) .oal, oil, a)$ /a! bur)i)/ ri/h% )o+, %#m*#ra%ur#! +oul$ .o)%i)u# %o ri!# abou% %+o %#)%h! o& a $#/r## <#l!iu! *#r $#.a$#. ;u%, %h# r#*or% +ri%#!, Oi& all ra$ia%iv# &or.i)/ a/#)%! Pi.#., /r##)hou!# /a!#!R ar# h#l$ .o)!%a)% a% '#ar 2000 l#v#l!, a &ur%h#r +armi)/ %r#)$ +oul$ o..ur i) %h# )#2% %+o $#.a$#! a% a ra%# o& abou% 0.1S< *#r $#.a$#.O 3ra)!la%#$ i)%o >)/li!h, %hi! m#a)!, %o *u% i% !im*l', %ha% i& +orl$ l#a$#r! ha$ h##$#$ %h# #arl' +ar)i)/! o& %h# &ir!% 4(<< r#*or%, a)$ b' 2000 ha$ $o)# %h# v#r' har$ +or" %o "##* /r##)hou!# /a! #mi!!io)! &rom /ro+i)/ a)' hi/h#r, %h# #2*#.%#$ %#m*#ra%ur# i).r#a!# +oul$ b# hal& a! mu.h a! i! #2*#.%#$ )o+. 4) %h# +or$! o& %h# #2*#r%! a% r#al.lima%#.or/, +h#r# %h# mo!% u!#&ul a)al'!#! o& %h# )#+ a!!#!!m#)% .a) b# &ou)$, .lima%# .ha)/# i! a *robl#m +i%h a v#r' hi/h O*ro.ra!%i)a%io) *#)al%'O: a *#)al%' %ha% 5u!% /ro+! a)$ /ro+! +i%h #a.h *a!!i)/ '#ar o& i)a.%io). 3hi! i! +h' %h# mo!% im*or%a)% )#+! abou% .lima%# a% %h# mom#)% ma' .om# )o% &rom %h# 4(<< bu% &rom Wa!hi)/%o). A&%#r %+#)%' '#ar! o& i)a.%ivi%'M a r#mar"abl' !u..#!!&ul bi*ar%i!a) #&&or% %o a..om*li!h )o%hi)/M%h# &ir!% &#+ +##"! o& %h# )#+ <o)/r#!! hav# +i%)#!!#$ a &lurr' o& a.%ivi%'. A !#ri#! o& bill! hav# b##) i)%ro$u.#$ b' *#o*l# ra)/i)/ &rom <ali&or)ia @#*r#!#)%a%iv# -#)r' Wa2ma) a)$ L#rmo)% C#)a%or ;#r)i# Ca)$#r! %o AriBo)a=! 7oh) 6.<ai) %ha% +oul$ .all &or mor# or l#!! a//r#!!iv# .arbo) r#$u.%io) %ar/#%!. Com# o& %h# bill! +oul$ !#% i) *la.# a O.a*?a)$?%ra$#O !'!%#m %ha% +oul$ !#% ov#rall limi%! o) #mi!!io)! o& .arbo) $io2i$# bu% +oul$ allo+ .om*a)i#! %o &r##l' bu' a)$ !#ll .r#$i%! *#rmi%%i)/ %h#m %o #mi% .#r%ai) amou)%! o& i%: %hi! +oul$ *ro$u.# a mar"#% &or .arbo)?.u%%i)/ m#a!ur#!. 3h# 4(<< r#*or% $o#!)=% .all &or *ar%i.ular r#$u.%io) &i/ur#!. 4% $o#!, ho+#v#r, ma"# .l#ar %ha% r#$u.%io) i) #mi!!io)! mu!% b# 9ui." a)$ $##*. 3h#r# i! )o mor# o*%imi!%i. al%#r)a%iv#. >v#) i& +# $o #v#r'%hi)/ ri/h%, +#=r# !%ill /oi)/ %o !## !#riou! i).r#a!#! i) %#m*#ra%ur#, a)$ all o& %h# *h'!i.al .ha)/#! (%o o)# #2%#)% or a)o%h#r *r#$i.%#$ i) %h# r#*or%. -o+#v#r, %h#r#=! r#a!o) %o ho*# %ha% i& %h# AC a.%! extremely a//r#!!iv#l' a)$ 9ui."l' +# mi/h% b# abl# %o avoi$ a) i).r#a!# o& %+o $#/r##! <#l!iu!, %h# rou/h %hr#!hol$ a% +hi.h ru)a+a' *olar m#l%i)/ mi/h% b# !%o**#$. 3hi! m#a)! %ha% a)' u!#&ul l#/i!la%io) +ill hav# %o &#a%ur# bo%h a v#r' ra*i$ !%ar% %o r#$u.%io)! a)$ a lo)/ a)$ u).om*romi!i)/ ma)$a%# %o .o)%i)u# 70

%h#m. Ca)$#r!=! bill, al!o #)$or!#$ b' <ali&or)ia=! ;arbara ;o2#r, +ho h#a$! %h# r#l#va)% .ommi%%##, .om#! .lo!#!% %o %ha% !%a)$ar$. 4% .all! &or a) #v#)%ual 80 *#r.#)% .u% i) #mi!!io)! b' 2050. 6.<ai)=! bill, .o!*o)!or#$ b' o)# o& hi! .hall#)/#r! &or %h# *r#!i$#).', ;ara." ,bama, i! !om#+ha% +#a"#r i) i%! #v#)%ual %ar/#%!. ;u% %h# bar/ai)i)/ ha! bar#l' b#/u), a)$ i) a)' #v#)% 9ui." i)i%ial im*l#m#)%a%io) o& a)' .u%! +ill b# almo!% a! im*or%a)% a! %h# &i)al )umb#r!. No o)# #2*#.%! (r#!i$#)% ;u!h %o !i/) !u.h a bill. 4) &a.%, i% +a! +i$#l' .o)!i$#r#$ a mi)or mira.l# %ha% h# u%%#r#$ %h# +or$! O.lima%# .ha)/#O i) %hi! '#ar=! C%a%# o& %h# A)io) a$$r#!!. (-i! lim* *ro*o!al, .#)%#ri)/ o) al%#r)a%iv# &u#l! &or !om# v#hi.l#!, +a! #9uall' +i$#l' .o)!i$#r#$ a $u$. Wha%=! ha**#)i)/ )o+ ha! mu.h %o $o +i%h *o!i%io)i)/ &or %h# )#2% *r#!i$#)%ial #l#.%io), a)$ %h# l#/i!la%io) %ha% +ill #v#)%uall' b# *a!!#$ a)$ !i/)#$ i) 2009. Wha% %h# 4(<< r#*or% ma"#! .l#ar b' im*li.a%io) i! %ha% %ha% l#/i!la%io) +ill b# our la!% m#a)i)/&ul .ha).#: a)'%hi)/ l#!! %ha) a) all?ou% a!!aul% o) .arbo) i) our #.o)om' +ill b# r#)$#r#$ m#a)i)/l#!! b' %h# i).r#a!i)/ mom#)%um o& /lobal +armi)/. A)$ o& .our!# b' )o+ our #.o)om' i! o)l' *ar% o& %h# *robl#m. 3hou/h +# u!# mor# #)#r/' *#r .a*i%a %ha) a)' o%h#r .ou)%r', %h# <hi)#!# ma' *a!! u! i) %o%al .arbo) #mi!!io)! b' $#.a$#=! #)$. >v#) i& +# !%ar% %o /#% our o+) hou!# i) or$#r, +#=ll )##$ %o &i/ur# ou% ho+, +i%h $#!*#ra%# !*##$, %o l#a$ a) #9uall' !+##*i)/ i)%#r)a%io)al r#!*o)!#. 3h# o)l' r#all' #).oura/i)/ $#v#lo*m#)% i! %h# /rou)$!+#ll o& *ubli. .o).#r) %ha% ha! buil% ov#r %h# la!% '#ar, b#/i))i)/ +i%h %h# r#a.%io) %o -urri.a)# Ka%ri)a a)$ Al Gor#=! movi#. 4) 7a)uar', a &#+ o& u! lau).h#$ a) i)i%ia%iv# .all#$ !%#*i%u*07 .or/. 4% .all! &or Am#ri.a)! %o or/a)iB# ralli#! i) %h#ir o+) .ommu)i%i#! o) A*ril 14 a!"i)/ &or .o)/r#!!io)al a.%io). 4) %h# &ir!% &#+ +##"! %h# W#b !i%# +a! o*#), mor# %ha) !i2 hu)$r#$ /rou*! i) &or%'?!i2 !%a%#! r#/i!%#r#$ %o hol$ $#mo)!%ra%io)!M%hi! +ill .l#arl' b# %h# lar/#!% or/a)iB#$ r#!*o)!# %o /lobal +armi)/ '#% i) %hi! .ou)%r'. 3h# /rou*! ra)/# &rom #)viro)m#)%al ou%&i%! %o #va)/#li.al .hur.h#! %o .oll#/# !orori%i#!, u)i%#$ o)l' b' %h# vi!.#ral !#)!# (&u#l#$ i) *ar% b' %hi! +i)%#r=! biBarr# +#a%h#r %ha% %h# *la)#% ha! b##) ")o."#$ ou% o& +ha.". 3h# 4(<< a!!#!!m#)% o&&#r! a mo$#!% a..ou)% o& 5u!% ho+ &ar ou% o& +ha." i% i!Ma)$ 5u!% ho+ har$ +#=r# /oi)/ %o hav# %o +or" %o hav# #v#) a .ha).# a% limi%i)/ %h# $ama/#. N,*(s
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The #evenge of $aia: %arth&s Climate in Crisis an' the (ate of )umanity

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%h# #ar%h a .ha).# %o r#*air %h# oBo)# hol# b#&or# i% o*#)#$ !o +i$# a! %o a))ihila%# mu.h o& li&# %hrou/h #2.#!! ul%raviol#% ra$ia%io). 8ov#lo." ha! al!o &ail#$ %o i$#)%i&' a)' .l#ar .au!al m#.ha)i!m &or hi! !u$$#) h#a%i)/ h'*o%h#!i!, #2*lai)i)/ %ha% h# $i&&#r! +i%h mor# .o)v#)%io)al &or#.a!%! mo!%l' b#.au!# h# %hi)"! %h#' hav# u)$#r#!%ima%#$ bo%h %h# #2%#)% o& %h# !#l&?r#i)&or.i)/ .'.l#! %ha% ar# .au!i)/ %#m*#ra%ur#! %o ri!# a)$ %h# vul)#rabili%' o& %h# *la)#%, +hi.h h# !##! a! !#v#r#l' !%r#!!#$ a)$ .lo!# %o lo!i)/ #9uilibrium. 4% al!o mu!% b# !ai$ %ha% *ar%! o& hi! !hor% boo" r#a$ a li%%l# o$$l'M%h#r# ar# $i/r#!!io)! i)%o, !a', %h# !a&#%' o& )i%ra%#! i) &oo$ %ha% $o)=% !#rv# mu.h *ur*o!# a)$ rai!# 9u#!%io)! abou% %h# ri/or o& %h# #)%ir# #)%#r*ri!#. 3ha% !ai$, %h#r# ar# v#r' &#+ *#o*l# o) #ar%hMma'b# )o)#M+i%h %h# !am# "i)$ o& i)%ui%iv# &##l &or ho+ i% b#hav#! a! a +hol#. 8ov#lo."=! &la!h#! o& i)!i/h% abou% Gaia illumi)a%# ma)' o& %h# i)%#r.o))#.%io)! b#%+##) !'!%#m! %ha% mor# *#$#!%ria) !.i#)%i!%! hav# !lo+l' b##) %r'i)/ %o i$#)%i&'. 6or#ov#r, &or %h# *a!% %+#)%' '#ar!, %h# *#rio$ $uri)/ +hi.h /r##)hou!# !.i#).# #m#r/#$, mo!% o& %h# #&&#.%! o& h#a%i)/ o) %h# *h'!i.al +orl$ hav# i) &a.% b##) mor# $ir# %ha) ori/i)all' *r#$i.%#$. 3h# r#/ular r#a$#r o& Science a)$ ature i! %r#a%#$ %o a) almo!% +##"l' loa$ o& a*o.al'*%i. $a%a, vir%uall' all o& i% !ho+i)/ r#!ul%! a% %h# v#r' u**#r #)$ o& %h# ra)/#! *r#$i.%#$ b' .lima%# mo$#l!, or b#'o)$ %h#m al%o/#%h#r. <om*ar#$ +i%h %h# ori/i)al mo$#l! o& a &#+ '#ar! a/o, i.# i! m#l%i)/ &a!%#r: &or#!% !oil! ar# /ivi)/ u* mor# .arbo) a! %h#' +arm: !%orm! ar# i).r#a!i)/ mu.h mor# 9ui."l' i) )umb#r a)$ !iB#. A! 4=m +ri%i)/ %h#!# +or$!, )#+! .om#! a.ro!! %h# bo%%om o& m' .om*u%#r !.r##) %ha% a )#+ !%u$' !ho+! m#%ha)# l#a"i)/ &rom Cib#ria) *#rma&ro!% a% &iv# %im#! %h# *r#$i.%#$ ra%#, +hi.h i! !#riou!l' ba$ )#+! !i).# m#%ha)# i! a) #v#) mor# *o%#)% /r##)hou!# /a! %ha) <,P2R . 4) %hi! &a!%?.ha)/i)/ !.i#)%i&i. *uBBl#, %h# 4)%#r/ov#r)m#)%al (a)#l o) <lima%# <ha)/# (4(<< , +hi.h ha! /iv#) %h# +orl$ valuabl# /ui$a).# &or a $#.a$#, !%a)$! %h# ri!" o& b#i)/ ou%ru) b' )#+ $a%a. 3h# *a)#l i! !u**o!#$ %o i!!u# a )#+ r#*or% i) %h# .omi)/ '#ar !ummariBi)/ %h# &i)$i)/! ma$# b' .lima%# !.i#)%i!%! !i).# i%! la!% r#*or%. ;u% i%=! u)li"#l' %ha% i%! !om#+ha% u)+i#l$' *ro.#$ur#! +ill allo+ i% %o i).or*ora%# &#ar! !u.h a! 8ov#lo."=! a$#9ua%#l', or #v#) %o a$$r#!! &ull' %h# &ar mor# mai)!%r#am *r#$i.%io)! i!!u#$ $uri)/ %h# la!% %+#lv# mo)%h! b' 7am#! -a)!#) o& NACA, %h# *la)#%=! %o* .lima%olo/i!%.P1R -a)!#) i! )o% 9ui%# a! /loom' a! 8ov#lo.". Al%hou/h h# r#.#)%l' !%a%#$ %ha% %h# >ar%h i! v#r' .lo!# %o %h# ho%%#!% i% ha! b##) i) a millio) '#ar!, h# !ai$ %ha% +# !%ill hav# u)%il 2015 %o r#v#r!# %h# &lo+ o& .arbo) i)%o %h# a%mo!*h#r# b#&or# +# .ro!! a %hr#!hol$ a)$ .r#a%# a O$i&&#r#)% *la)#%.O Wh#) -a)!#) /av# %hi! +ar)i)/ la!% D#.#mb#r +# ha$ %#) '#ar! %o .ha)/# .our!#, bu% !oo) +#=ll hav# o)l' )i)# '#ar!, a)$ !i).# )o%hi)/ ha! ha**#)#$ i) %h# i)%#rv#)i)/ %im# %o !u//#!% %ha% +#=r# /#ari)/ u* &or a) all?ou% #&&or% %o r#$u.# /r##)hou!# /a! #mi!!io)!, %h# $iv#r/#).# b#%+##) -a)!#) a)$ 8ov#lo." ma' b# a.a$#mi.. (Com#ho+ i%=! !mall .om&or% %o b# roo%i)/ &or %h# /u' +ho !a'! 'ou=v# /o% a $#.a$#. Wha%=! amaBi)/ i! %ha% #v#) Al Gor#=! &i)# a)$ &ri/h%#)i)/ &ilm An Inconvenient Truth )o+ la/! b#hi)$ %h# !.i#)%i&i. .u%%i)/ #$/# o) %hi! i!!u#M%h# !.i#).# i! movi)/ &a!%. 4%=! %ru# %ha% %h# +orl$ i! b#/i))i)/ !lo+l' %o a+a"#) %o %h# i$#a %ha% /lobal +armi)/ ma' b# a r#al *robl#m, a)$ l#/i!la%ur#! (%hou/h )o% our! ar# !%ar%i)/ %o )ibbl# a% i%. ;u% v#r' &#+ u)$#r!%a)$ +i%h a)' r#al $#*%h %ha% a +av# lar/# #)ou/h %o br#a" .iviliBa%io) i! &ormi)/, a)$ %ha% %h# o)l' r#al 9u#!%io) i! +h#%h#r +# .a) $o a)'%hi)/ a% all %o +#a"#) i%! &or.#. 74

4%=! %o %h# 9u#!%io) o& !olu%io)! %o mi%i/a%# %h# #&&#.%! o& /lobal +armi)/ %ha% 8ov#lo." #v#)%uall' %ur)!, +hi.h i! o$$ !i).# i) o%h#r *la.#! h# i)!i!%! %ha% i%=! %oo la%# %o $o mu.h. -i! *r#!.ri*%io)! ar# !%ro)/l' +or$#$ a)$ *rovo.a%iv#Mh# %hi)"! %ha% r#)#+abl# #)#r/' a)$ #)#r/' .o)!#rva%io) +ill .om# %oo !lo+l' %o +ar$ o&& $ama/#, a)$ %ha% a) #)ormou! *ro/ram o& buil$i)/ )u.l#ar r#a.%or! i! our b#!%, i)$##$ our o)l', r#al o*%io). OW# .a))o% %ur) o&& our #)#r/'?i)%#)!iv#, &o!!il?&u#l?*o+#r#$ .iviliBa%io) +i%hou% .ra!hi)/,O h# +ri%#!. OW# )##$ %h# !o&% la)$i)/ o& a *o+#r#$ $#!.#)%.O 3ha% *o+#r .a)=% .om# &rom +i)$ or !olar #)#r/' !oo) #)ou/h: >v#) )o+, +h#) %h# b#ll ha! !%ar%#$ %olli)/ %o mar" our #)$i)/, +# !%ill %al" o& !u!%ai)abl# $#v#lo*m#)% a)$ r#)#+abl# #)#r/' a! i& %h#!# &##bl# o&&#ri)/! +oul$ b# a..#*%#$ b' Gaia a! a) a**ro*ria%# a)$ a&&or$abl# !a.ri&i.#. 4)!%#a$, O)#+ )u.l#ar buil$i)/ !houl$ b# !%ar%#$ imm#$ia%#l'.O Wi%h hi! #2%rava/a)% rh#%ori., 8ov#lo." $o#! u! a &avorMi% i! %ru# %ha% +# !houl$ b# a% l#a!% a! !.ar#$ o& a )#+ .oal *la)% a! o& a )#+ )u.l#ar !%a%io). 3h# la%%#r .arri#! .#r%ai) obviou! ri!"! (+hi.h 8ov#lo." ar/u#! .o)vi).i)/l' loom lar/#r %ha) *#rha*! %h#' !houl$ i) our ima/i)a%io)! , +hil# %h# .oal *la)%! .om# +i%h %h# ab!olu%# /uara)%## %ha% %h#ir #mi!!io)! +ill u)hi)/# %h# *la)#%=! *h'!i.al !'!%#m!. >v#r' *o%#)%ial !our.# o& )o)?.arbo) #)#r/' !houl$ b# #2ami)#$ &airl' %o !## +ha% rol# i% mi/h% hav# i) avoi$i)/ a $i!a!%rou! &u%ur#. ;u% 8ov#lo." al!o u)$#rmi)#! hi! o+) ar/um#)% +i%h +ha% amou)%! %o !*#.ial *l#a$i)/. -# i! a &o# o& +i)$ *o+#r b#.au!#, a! h# !a'!, h# $o#!)=% +a)% hi! D#vo) .ou)%r'!i$# ov#rru) +i%h +i)$mill!, *la.i)/ him i) %h# !am# .am* a! <a*# <o$ va.a%io)#r! r#!i!%a)% %o +i)$ &arm! o&&!hor# i) Na)%u."#% Cou)$ or L#rmo)%#r! r#lu.%a)% %o !## !om# o& %h#ir hi/h ri$/#li)#! $o%%#$ +i%h %o+#ri)/ %urbi)#!. O(#rha*! +# ar# N46;E!,O h# +ri%#!, r#&#rri)/ %o %h# abbr#via%io) &or %h# *hra!# ONo% 4) 6' ;a." Ear$,O bu% +# !## %ho!# urba) *oli%i.ia)! P*u!hi)/ +i)$ *o+#rR a! li"# !om# u)%hi)"i)/ *h'!i.ia)! +ho hav# &or/o%%#) %h#ir -i**o.ra%i. ,a%h a)$ ar# %r'i)/ %o "##* aliv# a $'i)/ .iviliBa%io) b' u!#l#!! a)$ i)a**ro*ria%# .h#mo%h#ra*' +h#) %h#r# i! )o ho*# o& .ur# a)$ %h# %r#a%m#)% r#)$#r! %h# la!% !%a/#! o& li&# u)b#arabl#. 3hi! i! a) u)$#r!%a)$abl# av#r!io), bu% i% +oul$ )##$ %o r#!%, a! 8ov#lo." a$mi%!, o) !om#%hi)/ mor# %ha) a#!%h#%i.!, a)$ i) %hi! .a!# %h# &ou)$a%io) i! all bu% )o)#2i!%#)%. -# 9uo%#! a .ou*l# o& $i!illu!io)#$ Da)#! %o %h# #&&#.% %ha% +i)$ *o+#r ha!)=% b##) a *a)a.#a i) D#)mar", a)$ !a'! %ha% ;ri%ai) +oul$ )##$ 54,000 bi/ +i)$ %urbi)#! %o m##% i%! )##$!, a! i& %ha% hu/# )umb#r !im*l' #)$! %h# ar/um#)%. (3h# la." o& a$#9ua%# )o%#! i) %hi! boo" ma"#! .h#."i)/ !our.#! laboriou!. ;u% i) &a.% %h# G#rma)! ar# a$$i)/ 2,000 +i)$mill! a))uall', a)$ )#ari)/ 20,000 %o%al. Com# ob5#.% %o %h# !i/h% o& %h#m !.a%%#r#$ a.ro!! %h# .ou)%r'!i$#, a)$ o%h#r! ar# #).ha)%#$. 4) a)' #v#)%, +ha%#v#r o)#=! o*i)io) o& +i)$ *o+#r, i%=! )o% a% all .l#ar %ha% a .ra!h *ro/ram o& buil$i)/ a%omi. r#a.%or! ma"#! !#)!#. 6o!% o& %h# #.o)omi. mo$#li)/ 4=v# !##) i)$i.a%#! %ha% i& 'ou %oo" %h# mo)#' i)%#)$#$ &or buil$i)/ a r#a.%or a)$ i)v#!%#$ i% i)!%#a$ i) a) a//r#!!iv# #)#r/' .o)!#rva%io) *ro5#.% (o)# %ha% *rovi$#$ !ub!i$i#! %o .om*a)i#! %o mo$i&' %h#ir &a.%ori#! %o r#$u.# *o+#r u!#, &or i)!%a).# , %h# *a'o&& i) .u%%i)/ ba." o) .arbo) +oul$ b# mu.h lar/#r. 3hi! $o#!)=% #)$ %h# ar/um#)%, #i%h#rM+# +ill obviou!l' )##$ )#+ #)#r/' !our.#!, a)$ %h# #2am*l# o& %h# 0r#).h !u..#!! +i%h )u.l#ar *o+#r (i% /#)#ra%#! %hr## 9uar%#r! o& %h#ir #l#.%ri.i%' m#a)! i% ha! %o b# 75

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