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(20-25 April 2014) Equity Market Update, ThisIsTomorrow
(20-25 April 2014) Equity Market Update, ThisIsTomorrow
(20-25 April 2014) Equity Market Update, ThisIsTomorrow
Unfavorable Move
UP Trend
Down trend
Market State
Short-Correction
Mid-Correction
Potential week
Medium-term
Medium-term
SPX NDX DJI RUT GOOGL AMZN FB AAPL MSFT HPQ WFC
1860 3535 16410 1138 543 324.9 58.95 524.9 40 31.9 48.9
TR TR TR TR TR TR TR TR TR TR TR
8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1700 3150 15170 1070 505 309 55.9 499 37.7 29.5 45.6
1770 3360 15700 1080 515 312 56.7 516 39 31.6 46.9
1815 3410 16015 1095 537 315 58 522 39.2 31.9 47.4
1710 3150 15660 1065 465 315 51.6 514 35.3 27.8 44.8
1860 3480 16180 1130 540 315 58 518 39.2 31.9 48.5
1835 3530 16050 1145 585 337 60.7 522 39.3 31.5 47.4
58 39 31.6 47.4
31.5 46.8
49.7
Bottom Out
Pivot Level
Short-term
Short-term
Long-term
Long-term
Last Price
Side-way
Scenario
Strategy
Top Out
Symbol
Risk
4%
1900 WCS 3740 WCS 16580 WCS 1210 WCS 645 S 362 S 595 S 69.8 S 47.4 S 36.7 S5% 50.5 OB
12%
1880 S 3700 S RISK 16500 RISK 1200 S 608 S 348 OB 560 OB 68.5 S 41.65 WCS 35.5 S 50 WCS
12%
1870 RISK OB 3660 S 16450 OB 1180 OB 592 OB 337 P 544 S4% RISK 64 S 41 S 33.6 S 49.8 S RISK
34%
1865 S 3630 OB 16050 1160 S 572 OB 332 OB 536 OB 63.2 RISK OB3% 40.7 RISK OB3% 33.3 OB3% 49.2 OB3%
34%
1840 3600 S 16015 P 1140 P 568 RISK 329 S 527 P 62.6 S 40.4 P 32.9 S3% 48.9 S
34%
1815 P 3510 P 15970 D 1130 OS 552 P 315 P 520 D4% 60.45 P 39.2 D3% P 32.6 S 47.7 D2%
34%
1780 D 3450 D 15700 D5% RISK 1112 D 538 D5% RISK 312 D3% RISK 516 RISK 58 P3% 39 RISK 31.95 OS3% 47.4 D3%
12%
1770 OS RISK 3420 P 15440 OS 1095 P 515 D 309 S 511 OS 56.8 D10% RISK 38.9 P 31.6 D3% RISK 46.8 OS4% RISK
12%
1740 D 3360 OS RISK 15340 D 1080 OS RISK 510 OS 296 500 D5% 55.9 OS 38.1 D 30.6 OS 45.6 D1% WCS
4%
1700 WCS 3150 WCS 15170 WCS 1070 WCS 503 D 280 480 WCS 54.4 WCS 37.5 OS 29.8 D 45.2 D RISK
42.8
60%
Probability Distribution S&P500 NAZDAQ 100 Russell 2000 GOOGL AMZN AAPL FB HPQ WFC
E(X) Month 1798 3468 1127 540 325.7 525.5 60.94 32.65 47.9
Forecast S&P500 NAZDAQ 100 Russell 2000 GOOGL AMZN FB HPQ WFC APPL
Q4 H 2050 4100
42 52
51 60
27.3 44.2
33 50
29 46
38 52
35 48
45 54
Initial Move 1[35103600] 2[36303450] 3[34503600] 4[3310 3700] Initial Move 1[31.532.7] 2[32.831.9] 3[31.633.6] Initial Move 1[49.348.1] 2[48.947.5] 3[47.748.9] 4[46.8 49.2] Initial Move 1[3941] 2[4139.2] 3[39.2 40.5] 4[38.1 41.6] Initial Move 1[5662.5] 2[63.256.7] 3[56.864] 4[58 64]
CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 33604100 33603150 CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 33.3 37 31.6 30.5 CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 49.2 52 47.4 45.5 CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 41 46 41 38 CLOSE ABOVE/BELOW 64 70 64 56
S1/S2 THEN 34504100 30003600 S1/S2 THEN 3437 2932.5 S1/S2 THEN 47.452 45.249.7 S1/S2 THEN 4146 37.641.6 S1/S2 THEN 6571 5664
BUY@3450 L A H -2.5 8 18 -13 -4 4 BUY@32 L A H 6 11 15.5 -10 -4 1.5 BUY@47.4 L A H 0 5 10 -4.5 0 5 BUY@39.2 L A H
L 8 21 L -2 2.5 L -3 8.5 L
SELL@3630 A H -2.5 -11.5 10 1 SELL@33.3 A H -6 -10 8 15 SELL@49 A H -1.5 -5.5 3 -1.5 SELL@41 A H
BUY@56.8 L A H
SELL@63.2 L A H
10
BE TR
BU CO
HD ND
Bullish strategy (BU):a buying opportunity based on the given risk (Bullish view is dominated) Bearish strategy (BE): Sell the security based on the given risk (Bearish view is dominated) Hold/Sideway (HD): the consolidation pattern is underway. Trading strategy (TR): Buy and sell security between the given trading ranges (Refer to supply and demand levels) Correction Strategy (CO): The security is headed for a modest pullback, Add to your position rather than sell out, the market is
coming back
within next 1 to 3 weeks (Refer to supply and demand level, OB and OS)
LOOK TO NEW DATA(ND) : this is a neutral strategy which looks to new data (Update the probability based on new information), refer to the Pivot Levels and Risk
Complicated (C): I cannot make a forecast until new data is released Potential Move: is expected a positive close at the end of week (more than 1%) is expected a negative close at the end of week (more than 1%) is expected an unchanged close at the end of week (Less than 1%)
2- Unfavorable Move
Risk: sign of unfavorable move against current market direction (Any position can be liquidated after a daily close) Page 9 | 20-25 April 2014
Worst Case Scenario (WCS): a maximum unfavorable move beyond 68% of probability distributions
3- Trend: is divided up to two groups and indicates the state of a trend against the current level of price. A daily close above and below of a trend levels are of significant importance to trader. For example if the prevail market price is 1830 and the short-term downtrend is located on 1860 then it suggest that market is trading in a downtrend.
Short term Trend: less than 4 weeks Medium term Trend: 1 to 3 months Long term Trend: 3 to 9 months
4- Market State: Provides information on how the market is positioned and where it is likely headed Ended Is already ended
Swing: market or security is either topped out or bottomed out (OB) Over-Bought level: it is unlikely to have a daily close or far less likely to have a weekly close above the stated price over the coming week. This level helps to determine an area of potential sell opportunity.
(OS) Over-Sold level: it is unlikely to have a daily close or far less likely to have a weekly close below the stated price over the coming week. This level helps to determine an area of potential buy opportunity.
Over-Bought and Over-Sold levels provide the probability distribution of any possible move or price actions over a one week period Minor Supply: a level which indicates a potential pause in current market direction as a result of supply and demand shifts so that it is expected to establish a less than 3% fall in price
Minor Demand: a level which indicates a potential pause in current market direction as a result of supply and demand shifts so that it is expected to establish a less than 3% increase in price
Minor Supply and Minor demand: a range of price fluctuation which does not change the current market direction
Strong Supply: a level which indicates a potential pause in current market direction or a considerable pullback as a result of supply and demand shifts so that it is expected to establish an over 3% drop in price.
Strong Demand: a level which indicates a potential pause in current market direction or a considerable snap back as a result of supply and demand shifts so that it is expected to establish an over 3% increase in price.
Forecast: Project a long-term trend in the form a series of closing price and also summaries the percentage change between forecast and actual data.
This Is Tomorrow
FINANCIAL MARKETS UPDATE
This Is Tomorrow, Financial Markets Update is a research based on new approach to quantitative
analysis in which the goal is to develop better understanding of market movements and risk management. This is a practical solution and comprehensive picture of certain security with a view to improve investment performance. It offers a smart trading capability along with a disciplined approach.
Research