TRANSACTIONAL Corporate / London Maritime Boundaries: UNCLOS and disputes over the right to exp ore and deve

op o!!shore reserves and the e!!e"t on the oi and gas industr# Dominique Askew, Anthony Long Despite the 1982 United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) providing nations with a 200 mi e offshore area (an !"#$ %sive "$onomi$ &one) for e#p oiting maritime reserves' internationa waters remain $ontested( Disp%tes are to )e e#pe$ted within the $onte#t of' on the one hand' diminishing reserves and the se$%rit* of s%pp * and' on the other hand' the dis$over* of new oi and gas deposits( +he desire of states to affirm rights over offshore areas the* )e ieve the* are entit ed to $ontro often res% ts in over apping $ aims to maritime areas and disp%tes over the de ineation of maritime )o%ndaries( Disp%tes t*pi$a * arise when the "#$ %sive "$onomi$ &one within whi$h it en,o*s e#p oration rights over nat%ra reso%r$es over aps with other states' sin$e it is for those states to de ineate (in good faith) the maritime )o%ndar* in s%$h a s$enario( -e$ent disp%tes over nationa rights to $ertain parts of the seas in$ %de those )etween China and .apan over the Sen/a/%0Diao*% is ands in the "ast China Sea and a so in the eastern 1editerranean' where there is histor* of $ompeting $ aims over apping as )etween 2ree$e and +%r/e*' 3srae and the 4a estinian 5%thorit*' and "g*pt and 3srae ( Over 160 governments and the "%ropean Union are $%rrent * signatories to UNCLOS' whi$h re ies %pon nationa egis ation to imp ement its provisions (tho%gh not a signatories have ratified UNCLOS)( 1ost nota) *' the United States (whi$h $riti$ised profit7sharing provisions with regard to deep sea)ed mining as )eing against the prin$ip es of free7mar/et $apita ism)' 3srae ' and +%r/e* are not signatories( 3n most $ases reso %tion of disp%tes is so%ght thro%gh the interpretation of UNCLOS and negotiation' a tho%gh other fa$tors' as set o%t )e ow' $ome into p a* in the reso %tion of s%$h disp%tes( Signatories to UNCLOS ma* )ring disp%tes to the 3nternationa +ri)%na for the Law of the Sea or the 3nternationa Co%rt of .%sti$e or %ti ise internationa ar)itration %nder UNCLOS( +he avai a)i it* of impartia ad,%di$ators to reso ve )order disp%tes a ows states to $ome to a satisfa$tor* $on$ %sion thro%gh str%$t%red' ega pro$esses( 4ast $ases of disp%tes a so ead to the deve opment of UNCLOS ,%rispr%den$e and provide %sef% pre$edents for f%t%re disp%te reso %tion( +he transformation of $omp e#' sometimes hosti e geo7po iti$a and mi itar* disp%tes into ega matters for ,%di$ia review and a$$eptan$e )* )oth parties at the tri)%na 8s determination is at an %npre$edented eve and is high * en$o%raging( +here are however' some arg%ments that UNCLOS has in fa$t deve oped $onf%sing ,%rispr%den$e and that it was prepared with on * the 5t anti$ O$ean in mind and is not a s%ita) e form% a for disp%tes in other seas( 1oreover' as mentioned a)ove' not a states invo ved in maritime )o%ndar* disp%tes are signatories to UNCLOS( Some of these non7signator* states whi$h have negotiated agreements on the de imitation of their "#$ %sive "$onomi$ &one with other $o%ntries (for e#amp e' 3srae negotiated s%$h an agreement with C*pr%s in 2010)' whi$h s%ggests that $ertain UNCLOS prin$ipa s are potentia * re$ognised )* non7signator* states( Of $o%rse' the disproportionate e$onomi$' po iti$a ' and mi itar*

$apa)i ities of $ertain states means there is ins%ffi$ient and %ne9%a a$$ess to ega and )%rea%$rati$ means that $an )e %sed to ma#imi:e the gains of sophisti$ated advo$a$* in re ation to UNCLOS( "$onomi$a * and mi itari * wea/er states need to earn to %se the UNCLOS r% es strategi$a * and effe$tive * to their advantage( ;hi st UNCLOS and internationa aw $an serve as a g%ide to the reso %tion of maritime )o%ndar* disp%tes' nation states % timate * need to engage their po iti$a wi to rea$h a satisfa$tor* $on$ %sion( ;ith an %n$ertain UNCLOS ands$ape' when oo/ing to invest in disp%ted' or potentia * disp%ted maritime territor*' $ompanies sho% d ens%re that (i) the* are aware of' and f% * %nderstand' an* po iti$a ris/s invo ved and (ii) the* see/ information as to how to safeg%ard their interests appropriate *( See/ing dip omati$ prote$tion from their home state' and %se of the $ontra$t%a framewor/s s%$h as %niti:ation agreements and <i atera 3nvestment +reaties (an agreement setting o%t the terms for private investment )* nationa s and $ompanies of one state in another state) might )e among the options( http=00www(atimes($om0atimes0;or d0;O-70170>091>(htm The Peoples Republics increasingly assertive stance on maritime issues has brought it into serious conflict with several other states of the Pacific Rim !ne of the most obstinate "isputes is that with the Philippines on territories in the #outh $hina #ea A closer look at the %nternational Law of the #ea reveals that $hina has no legal basis to &ustify its claims $% The "ontroversia Nine&dash Line +he United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was $rafted to have a %niform standard in maritime de imitation( +he travau' pr(paratoires show that the intent of the Convention was to avoid $onf%sion and $onf i$t with regard to the esta) ishment of maritime )o%ndaries( +hese efforts to $ arif* territoria a%thorit* notwithstanding' the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China' a signator* state to the UNCLOS' $ontroversia * maintains that the Nine7dash Line is their standard in $ aiming sovereignt* over a h%ge e#panse of the So%th China Sea(

+he Nine7dash Line asserts sovereignt* and sovereign rights over the 1(9? mi ion /m2 of the So%th China Sea' in$ %ding its waters' sea)ed and a of the maritime feat%res( +he UNCLOS' however' provides no ega fo%ndations to s%pport this $ aim( 3nstead' China8s assertion is )ased on a histori$a $ aim )* China that was on$e %sed )* +aiwan( On this )asis' China has )%i t n%mero%s artifi$ia str%$t%res over ro$/ formations' whi$h %nder 5rti$ e 121 of the UNCLOS fa short to )e $onsidered as is ands that ma* $reate their own "#$ %sive "$onomi$ &ones (""&)( Un ess China $an prove that these ro$/ formations' whi$h are s%)merged d%ring ow tide' $an s%stain h%man ha)itation or e$onomi$ ife@ it $annot have its own ""& in the So%th China Sea so as to s%pport its assertion( +he same is tr%e for $ aims referring to China8s $ontinenta she f( 5rti$ e AB' par( 1' of the UNCLOS provides that the continental shelf of a coastal state comprises the seabe" an" subsoil of the submarine areas that e'ten" beyon" its territorial sea throughout the natural prolongation of its lan" territory to the outer e"ge of the continental margin, or to a "istance of )** nautical miles from the baselines from which the brea"th of the territorial sea is measure" where the outer e"ge of continental margin "oes not e'ten" up to that "istance +he Nine7Dash ine $ontravenes this provision )e$a%se it in$ %des a $ aim over 1is$hief -eef' whi$h ies B00 mi es from China8s Cainan is and' )%t on * 1>0 mi es from the 4hi ippine is and provin$e of 4a awan( +he )rea$h of the UNCLOS )* the Nine7Dash ine $ aim is a so apparent from China8s $ aim over the S$ar)oro%gh and Sprat * 3s ands( '% Un!ounded o()e"tions China8s histori$a ,%stifi$ations r%n $o%nter to its o) igations %nder 5rt( >00 of the UNCLOS' whi$h provides that states sha f% fi their o) igations in good faith( "ven if China raises the defense that it has never a$/now edged $ertain provisions of the UNCLOS' the Continenta She f do$trine as we as the ""& do$trine have risen to the eve of $%stomar* internationa aw' as de$ ared )* the 3nternationa Co%rt of .%sti$e (3C.) in its de$isions over the Li)*a01a ta North Continenta She f Disp%te and the Disheries .%risdi$tion Cases' and are therefore )inding for China( 1oreover' China $annot raise that its domesti$ aw' whi$h provides its territoria )o%ndaries' is in$onsistent with the UNCLOS' as s%$h o),e$tions are )arred )* 5rti$ e 2A of the Eienna Convention on the Law of +reaties' whi$h states that !a part* ma* not invo/e the provisions of its interna aw as ,%stifi$ation for its fai %re to perform(F Considering the pacta sunt servan"a prin$ip e' China sho% d f% fi its o) igation %nder internationa aw( *% Legitimate " aims (# the +hi ippines <* $ontrast' the 4hi ippines has egitimate histori$a gro%nds to $ aim parts of the ;est 4hi ippine Sea( Dirst' there was no protest in the $o%rse of or s%)se9%ent to the ratifi$ation of the +reat* of 4aris in 1898 with respe$t to the e#er$ise of sovereignt* )* the United States over a the and and sea territor* em)ra$ed in that +reat*( +his spans a period of a most ha f a $ent%r*( 3n 19?B' when the United States granted independen$e to the 4hi ippines' whi$h d% * e#er$ised sovereignt* and ,%risdi$tion over the same territor*' neither

was there an* protest( Not %nti 19?A did the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ G and simi ar *' +aiwan G )egin to $ aim rights over the 4ara$e and Sprat * 3s ands )* iss%ing maps that showed the is ands as fa ing %nder their territor*( +he 4hi ippine $ aim over its entire maritime and territoria domain arising from the $o onia treaties has )een open and p%) i$ as we as $ontin%o%s and pea$ef% ' and was e#er$ised for a $onsidera) e ength of time witho%t protest from other states( Simi ar to the Nether ands in the 3s and of 4a mas $ase against the United States in 1928' th%s' the 4hi ippines $an raise the arg%ment of pres$ription against an* $ aims $ha enging its sovereignt*( 3n the interest of promoting pea$e and order' the tit e is a$9%ired and $annot )e denied irrespe$tive of whether the origina ta/ing of possession G in this $ase' )* the Spanish $o onia r% ers G was %n awf% in terms of the UNCLOS and whether there were s%)se9%ent protests thereto (quieta non movere)( Li/e China' the 4hi ippines had initia * reserved $ertain provisions of the UNCLOS so as not to pre,%di$e the domesti$ aws providing the territoria e#tents of the $o%ntr*( Cowever' these moves have )een frowned %pon )* n%mero%s states' i/e 5%stra ia' C%ngar*' 5%stria et$(' who arg%e that s%$h reservations are inva id as the* negate the ver* intent of the $onvention( 5fter a ' internationa treaties are $reated to avoid resorting to non7)inding referen$es s%$h as the histor* of a parti$% ar $o%ntr*( +his prompted the 4hi ippines to ad,%st its domesti$ aws and ena$ted -5 9662' or the 4hi ippine <ase ine Law' amending -5 >0?B to harmoni:e it with UNCLOS( 3f China8s histori$a $ aims were to )e s%stained' it wo% d not on * )e in$ongr%o%s with the UNCLOS )%t a so a $ ear do%) e standard against the pre$eding territoria $ aim of the 4hi ippines( $esar Ruperto P !ng is a stu"ent of #an +e"a $ollege of Law, ,anila, an" a member of the #an +e"a %nternational Law #ociety http=00ifair(wordpress($om0201>0110>00assessing7$hinas7$ aim7 %n$ os7and7the7so%th7$hina7sea7disp%te0 Cha enging the Chinese on UNCLOS !+he Chinese foreign ministr* said the disp%te with the 4hi ippines was !e#$ %ded from ar)itrationF )e$a%se of a de$ aration made )* China when it ratified Un$ os in 200B(! )* D%$/* 4aredes +he 4hi ippine government has fi ed a ?'0007page memorand%m on its $ aims on the ;est 4hi ippine Sea )efore an internationa $o%rt( Comm%ni$ations Se$retar* Cerminio Co oma anno%n$ed' !+oda* the government forma * fi ed a memorand%m at the ar)itra tri)%na of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)(F Co oma e#p ained that the memorand%m or memoria G in the ang%age of internationa aw G $ontains the ega )asis and other arg%ments on the $o%ntr*8s $ aim on parts of the ;est 4hi ippines Sea( +he 4hi ippines was ordered )* the 3+LOS to s%)mit its memoria on or )efore 1ar$h >0' 201? after it fi ed a $ase in 201> against China(

China8s $ aims over the strategi$a * important So%th China Sea over ap those of the 4hi ippines as we as <r%nei' 1a a*sia' Eietnam and +aiwan( +he 4hi ippine $ase arg%es that China8s $ aims $over areas as far as 8A0 na%ti$a mi es (1'B11 /i ometers) from the nearest Chinese $oast' and are th%s i ega %nder the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea( 1ani a notified the UN and <ei,ing in .an%ar* ast *ear that it wo% d initiate ar)itra pro$eedings' inf%riating China whi$h has ref%sed to parti$ipate and warned that )i atera re ations wi s%ffer if the 4hi ippines p%rs%es the appea ( +he 4hi ippine foreign department said its p ea to the UN wo% d arg%e the disp%ted areas' in$ %ding the Se$ond +homas Shoa ' are part of the 4hi ippines8 $ontinenta she f over whi$h 1ani a has so e sovereign rights and ,%risdi$tion( <oth China and the 4hi ippines are signatories to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea' )%t <ei,ing has repeated * said it has sovereign rights over the entire Sprat *s as we as waters and other is ets approa$hing its neigh)ors( +he Sprat *s' a $hain of is ets and reefs that sit near /e* shipping anes and are s%rro%nded )* ri$h fishing gro%nds are aro%nd 200 /i ometers from the western 4hi ippine is and of 4a awan and a)o%t 1'100 /i ometers from the nearest ma,or Chinese and mass( Chinese foreign ministr* spo/esman Cong Lei stressed= !China is %nswerving in safeg%arding its territoria sovereignt*( 1eanwhi e' we are $ommitted to managing and reso ving re evant iss%es thro%gh dia og%e and $ons% tation( Citing nationa interest and see/ing a ,%st and d%ra) e so %tion gro%nded on internationa aw' the 4hi ippines s%)mitted e etroni$a * a ?'0007page memoria or written arg%ment to the United Nations ar)itra tri)%na hearing its $ase against China for the atter8s e#$essive $ aims in the So%th China Sea( Copies were a so sent to ea$h ar)itrator G the Chinese am)assador in the Nether ands and the Chinese $hargH d8affaires in 1ani a( +he memoria $onsisting of 10 vo %mes' presents the 4hi ippines8 $ase on the ,%risdi$tion of the ar)itra tri)%na and the merits of the $o%ntr*8s $ aims( III China8s rea$tion has )een to warn the 4hi ippines against es$a ating provo$ation( China8s Doreign 1inistr* spo/esman Cong Lei sa*s that )* p%shing forward internationa ar)itration' the 4hi ippines are attempting to disg%ise their i ega o$$%pation of Chinese territor*( !3t is po iti$a provo$ation )ased on a)%se of internationa aw'F said Cong Lei said at a dai * news )riefing' reiterating that China wi neither a$$ept nor parti$ipate in internationa ar)itration( Ce noted that China made a statement in a$$ordan$e with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 200B' pointing o%t that s%$h disp%tes are not s%),e$t to ar)itration( +o the Chinese' the essen$e of the So%th China Sea disp%te )etween the two $o%ntries is sovereignt* over is et and reef' not s%),e$t to ar)itration )* the UNCLOS' said Cong( China wi never a ow the 4hi ippines to o$$%p* the -en8ai -eef in an* form( China wi never a ow the 4hi ippines to s%$$eed in its attempt to )%i d fa$i ities there against the De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC)' Cong said( 3n ;ashington' U(S( State Department dep%t* spo/eswoman 1arie Carf )a$/ed the 4hi ippines8 a$tion' sa*ing !a $o%ntries sho% d respe$t the right of an* states part*' in$ %ding the 4hi ippines' to avai themse ves of the disp%te reso %tion me$hanisms provided for %nder the Law of the Sea Convention(F

Cong reminded the U(S( to remem)er its $ommitment that it is not a $ aimant in the So%th China Sea disp%te and does not ta/e position( !;e %rge the U(S( to sti$/ to its $ommitment and do more to $ontri)%te to regiona pea$e and sta)i it*' rather than the opposite(F +he Chinese foreign ministr* said the disp%te with the 4hi ippines was !e#$ %ded from ar)itrationF )e$a%se of a de$ aration made )* China when it ratified Un$ os in 200B( !China8s re,e$tion of the 4hi ippines8 s%)mission for ar)itration is so id * )ased on internationa aw' and China8s awf% rights as a part* to Un$ os sho% d )e tr% * respe$ted(F China is invo ved in maritime disp%tes with severa neigh)ors' )%t the 4hi ippines and .apan have )een the most aggressive in $ha enging its $ aims( +he Sino7Di ipino disp%te $omes as China and the US vie for power in the 4a$ifi$( China is rapid * e#panding its maritime $apa)i ities as the US $ontin%es its !pivotF to 5sia( 5head of 4resident <ara$/ O)ama8s visit to the 4hi ippines in 5pri ' ;ashington and 1ani a are tr*ing to fina i:e a dea that wo% d a ow the US to )ase ships and troops in the 4hi ippines on a rotationa )asis( 3n anno%n$ing the s%)mission of the a most ?'0007page memoria ' 5 )ert De -osario' foreign se$retar*' said it was %n$ ear how China wo% d respond( !Ordinari *' the ne#t step in an ar)itration of this nat%re wo% d )e the fi ing of a $o%nter7memoria )* the other part*( Cowever' it is $%rrent * %n/nown whether China wi appear in the $ase' or whether it wi $ontin%e its present po i$* of a)staining from the pro$eedings(F 1ani a arg%es that the tri)%na sho% d inva idate the !nine7dash ineF )e$a%se it stret$hes to ,%st >0760 mi es from the 4hi ippines' $%tting off the $o%ntr*8s 2007mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and $ontinenta she f' in vio ation of Un$ os( 1ani a sa*s it wo% d ose 80 per $ent of its ""& in waters off the western 4hi ippines' in$ %ding areas $ontaining h%ge oi and gas deposits' if it a$$epted the ine( +o the Chinese' no matter how the 4hi ippine memoria is pa$/aged' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the atter8s i ega o$$%pation of some of China8s is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea S%preme Co%rt .%sti$e 5ntonio Carpio sa*s the 4hi ippines is not as/ing the tri)%na to determine the ownership of the disp%ted ro$/s' shoa s or reefs' )%t on * to $ arif* if the most * s%)merged feat%res are entit ed to their own maritime :ones( !+he 4hi ippines is as/ing the tri)%na if China8s nine7 dashed ines $an negate the 4hi ippines8 e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one as g%aranteed %nder Un$ os'F he said in a spee$h in De)r%ar*( !+he 4hi ippines is a so as/ing the tri)%na if $ertain ro$/s a)ove water at high tide' i/e S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' generate a 2007na%ti$a mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one or on * a 127na%ti$a mi e territoria sea(F +he move to fi e a !memoria F paves the wa* for forma de i)erations )* the tri)%na on whether it has ,%risdi$tion and on the s%)stantive iss%es( 3t mar/s the first time that China8s !nine7dash ineF wi )e s%),e$ted to intense internationa s$r%tin* )* some of the wor d8s foremost internationa aw e#perts(

China on S%nda* said it wo% d not a$$ept internationa ar)itration over the So%th China Sea that was %ni atera * fi ed )* the 4hi ippines' after 1ani a forma * s%)mitted a p ea to the

United Nations in disregard of ChinaJs warnings( 3n a statement' ChinaJs foreign ministr* spo/esman Cong Lei on S%nda* %rged the 4hi ippines to f% * imp ement the De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC) signed )* China and 5S"5N $o%ntries' and $ome )a$/ on the right tra$/ of reso ving the disp%te thro%gh )i atera negotiation( Cong made the remar/s after 1ani a fi ed its memorand%m with the 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Seas( 1ani a instit%ted ar)itration pro$eedings against China %nder the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) with regard to disp%tes )etween the two $o%ntries in the So%th China Sea in .an%ar* 201>( +he 4hi ippines Doreign Se$retar* 5 )ert de -osario said on S%nda* that 1ani a does not e#pe$t the tri)%na to rea$h a de$ision )efore the end of 2016( China has a so id aw )asis to ref%se the ar)itration' Cong said' noting the $o%ntr* made a stat%tor* statement in 200B to the UN' ma/ing $ ear that the re evant disp%tes do not app * to ar)itration pro$ed%re( 5rti$ e 298 of UNCLOS a ows signatories to e#empt themse ves from mandator* sett ement of disp%tes over sea de imitation and territoria disp%tes( Chinese 4resident Ki .inping said in a spee$h in <er in on Drida* that China wi not provo/e tro%) e regarding territoria disp%tes in the So%th China Sea' )%t it does not fear tro%) e provo/ed )* others( Ce made it $ ear that China stands firm on safeg%arding nationa interests when it $omes to sovereignt* and territoria integrit*' the Kinh%a News 5gen$* reported( O)servers said that the Di ipino government is internationa i:ing the disp%te )* resorting to ega pro$eedings(

position(L "#perts made simi ar estimations' noting reper$%ssions for China $o% dnJt )e r% ed o%t if the tri)%na s%pports 1ani aJs p ea( L5 tho%gh China is not )o%nd to the ar)itra de$ision' we have to worr* a)o%t some possi) e diffi$% ties it might )ring to so ve e#isting sea disp%tes and the negotiation for a $ode of $ond%$t in the So%th China Sea'L ;ang Kiaopeng' a maritime )order e#pert at the Chinese 5$adem* of So$ia S$ien$es' to d the 2 o)a +imes( ;ang said if the r% ing is favora) e to the 4hi ippines' other $o%ntries ma* ma/e %se of the res% t to $ha enge ChinaJs sovereignt* of other disp%ted is ands( LSo we sho% d enhan$e o%r $om)at $apa)i it* at sea and $arr* o%t ro%tine sea patro s as we as sign ,oint deve opment agreements with neigh)ors as soon as possi) e to iso ate the 4hi ippines'L he said( 4hi ippines e#perts said that the $o%ntr* m%st )e prepared for e$onomi$ san$tions and other forms of dip omati$ reprisa s )* China after it fi ed the memorand%m' o$a media 1ani a <% etin reported( ChinaJs foreign ministr* had warned ear ier that the 4hi ippines sho% d stop going an* f%rther down the wrong tra$/ so as to avoid f%rther damage to its re ations with <ei,ing(

4hi ippines )att es China at UN over maritime disp%te <* Demetri Sevastop% o in Cong Oong Cigh 9%a it* g o)a ,o%rna ism re9%ires investment( 4 ease share this arti$ e with others %sing the in/ )e ow' do not $%t P paste the arti$ e( See o%r +sPCs and Cop*right 4o i$* for more detai ( "mai ftsa es(s%pportQft($om to )%* additiona rights( http=00www(ft($om0$ms0s0002B?A889$79>)>711e>7)f0$7 001??fea)Ade(htm Ri#::2:a$%g$$"

LCowever' UNCLOS $annot determine sovereignt* right or so ve territoria disp%tes'L &ho% Cong,%n' dean of the 3nternationa Law Da$% t* at the "ast China Universit* of 4o iti$a S$ien$e and Law' to d the 2 o)a +imes on S%nda*( Ce added that the ar)itration tri)%na has no right to interfere in sovereignt* iss%es( +he Lnine7dash ineL was drawn in 19?A and offi$ia * re$ogni:ed )* the Chinese government in 1968' )%t the UNCLOS was adopted in 1982( 5$$ording to the prin$ip e of inter7tempora aw' the nine7dash ine sho% d not )e )o%nd )* UNCLOS' &ho% noted( 5)igai Ea te' spo/eswoman for 4resident <enigno 59%ino' said ear ier that 1ani a was aware the UN tri)%na ma* not )e a) e to enfor$e its r% ing if it de$ides against China' )%t Lat east ass%ming that a favora) e de$ision Mfor the 4hi ippinesN is rendered' then that is additiona weight for the 4hi ippine

;hi e China is )e$oming more a$tive in the waterwa*s aro%nd 5sia' it is a so fa$ing a ega )att e over maritime territoria disp%tes in the So%th China Sea at the UN( +he 4hi ippines ast *ear )ro%ght a $ase against China to the )od* that ar)itrates $ aims re ated to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Un$ os)' whi$h he ps determine the maritime rights that nations $an $ aim(

1ani a is $ha enging the va idit* of the !nine7dash ineF that China %ses on maps to ,%stif* its $ aim to a most the entire So%th China Sea( 4a% -ei$h er' a US aw*er who is representing the 4hi ippines' sa*s China G whi$h has ref%sed to ta/e part despite )eing an Un$ os signator* G ma* not $omp * with the de$ision' whi$h wo% d )e hard to enfor$e as China has veto power at the UN( <%t he arg%es that a vi$tor* for the 4hi ippines wo% d sti )e important as it wo% d p a* into % timate negotiations over the $ontested waters( !;e %nderstand that there is a ris/ that China wi at east initia * tr* to ignore the ,%dgment'F said 1r -ei$h er( !Caving the tri)%na esta) ish ega rights wi p a* a ro e in the negotiations(((+here wi )e some sort of press%re to rea$h an a$$ommodation whi$h ma* not res% t in the 4hi ippines getting a that it is ega * entit ed to' )%t a fair shareF( 1r -ei$h er sa*s China wo% d a so !r%n the ris/ of appearing as an internationa o%t awF if it de$ ined to $omp * with the fina de$ision( +he US provided s%pport for the 4hi ippines ast wee/ when Dann* -%sse ' the top state department offi$ia for east 5sia' %rged China to !$ arif* or ad,%st its nine7dash ine $ aim to )ring it into a$$ordan$e with the internationa aw of the seaF( 1ani a m%st provide the tri)%na with its forma s%)mission )efore the end of 1ar$h( ;hi e it does not have the ,%risdi$tion to r% e on the a$t%a sovereignt* of the disp%ted ro$/s' reefs and is ands in the So%th China Sea' the tri)%na $an determine what maritime rights are afforded to the part* with sovereignt*( Under Un$ os' $o%ntries $an $ aim rights to reso%r$es s%$h as fish and minera s within 200 na%ti$a mi es of their shore or from is ands the* own that $an s%stain ha)itation( China sa*s the disp%ted pie$es of and in the So%th China Sea $onfer those rights( <%t 1ani a arg%es that <ei,ing is )asing its $ aims on feat%res that are not $overed )* the aw )e$a%se' for e#amp e' the* disappear at high tide( +he O)ama administration a so reinfor$ed that point for the first time ast wee/(

Lessons from Paracels Pt IV: China rejects arbitration to decide on Nine-Dash-Line

5S"5N ""& Es China8s $ aims over So%th China Sea with the imaginar* Nine7Dash7Line China is a o%d a)o%t its arrogant attit%de as the neigh)o%rhood )% *' with regards to the re$ent steps ta/en )* the 4hi ippines to reso ve at internationa ar)itration on the $ontrovers* arisen )* the wor d8s argest $omm%nist state8s imaginar# and unsu(stantiated " aims o! the ,Nine&-ash&Line.( Dinan$ia +imes stor*= Last %pdated= 1ar$h >1' 201? A=0> am China re,e$ts 4hi ippines $ase on Snine7dash8 ine <* Demetri Sevastop% o in Cong Oong and -oe Landingin in 1ani a T-e%ters China has $riti$ised the 4hi ippines for forging ahead with an %npre$edented internationa ar)itration $ aim against <ei,ing over $ontested waters in the So%th China Sea( 1ani a on S%nda* s%)mitted a p eading to the )od* that ar)itrates maritime disp%tes %nder the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (Un$ os)( +he so7$a ed !memoria F %rges the tri)%na to inva idate the !nine7dash ineF that China in$ %des on maps to ,%stif* its $ aim to a most the entire So%th China Sea( <ei,ing responded to the move )* $a ing on the 4hi ippines to engage in dire$t ta /s over the disp%ted is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea( 1ore !No matter how the 4hi ippine memoria is pa$/aged' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the atter8s i ega o$$%pation of some of China8s is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea'F said the Chinese foreign ministr*( +he 4hi ippines and China are )oth signatories to Un$ os' whi$h spe s o%t the maritime rights of states' and the means for sett ing disp%tes over over apping sea $ aims( <%t China has ref%sed to parti$ipate in the $ase' whi$h wi )e heard )* a five7,%dge tri)%na in +he Cag%e' sa*ing it was !%ni atera * initiatedF )* 1ani a( +he Chinese foreign ministr* said the disp%te with the

4hi ippines was !e#$ %ded from ar)itrationF )e$a%se of a de$ aration made )* China when it ratified Un$ os in 200B( !China8s re,e$tion of the 4hi ippines8 s%)mission for ar)itration is so id * )ased on internationa aw' and China8s awf% rights as a part* to Un$ os sho% d )e tr% * respe$ted(F China is invo ved in maritime disp%tes with severa neigh)o%rs' )%t the 4hi ippines and .apan have )een the most aggressive in $ha enging its $ aims( 3n De)r%ar*' <enigno 59%ino' the 4hi ippines president' $ompared China8s in$reasing * assertive stan$e in the So%th China Sea to Cit er8s p%sh for C:e$hos ova/ian and in 19>8( +he Sino7Di ipino disp%te $omes as China and the US vie for power in the 4a$ifi$( China is rapid * e#panding its maritime $apa)i ities as the US $ontin%es its !pivotF to 5sia( 5head of 4resident <ara$/ O)ama8s visit to the 4hi ippines in 5pri ' ;ashington and 1ani a are tr*ing to fina ise a dea that wo% d a ow the US to )ase ships and troops in the so%theast 5sian nation on a rotationa )asis( 3n anno%n$ing the s%)mission of the a most ?'0007page memoria ' 5 )ert De -osario' the 4hi ippines foreign se$retar*' said it was %n$ ear how China wo% d respond( 3n depth 5sia maritime tensions Latest news and $omment on the es$a ating disp%tes over is ands and territoria waters )etween China and its neigh)o%rs !Ordinari *' the ne#t step in an ar)itration of this nat%re wo% d )e the fi ing of a $o%nter7memoria )* the other part*'F said 1r De -osario( !Cowever' it is $%rrent * %n/nown whether China wi appear in the $ase' or whether it wi $ontin%e its present po i$* of a)staining from the pro$eedings(F 1ani a arg%es that the tri)%na sho% d inva idate the !nine7dash ineF )e$a%se it stret$hes to ,%st >0760 mi es from the 4hi ippines' $%tting off the so%theast 5sian $o%ntr*8s 2007mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and $ontinenta she f' in vio ation of Un$ os( 1ani a sa*s it wo% d ose 80 per $ent of its ""& in waters off the western 4hi ippines' in$ %ding areas $ontaining h%ge oi and gas deposits' if it a$$epted the ine( +he 4hi ippines is a so tr*ing to stop China from o$$%p*ing or ) o$/ing a$$ess )* 4hi ippine )oats and fishermen to eight so7 $a ed !s%)merged feat%resF that ie within its ""&' in$ %ding S$ar)oro%gh Shoa where Chinese and 4hi ippine maritime vesse s fig%red in a two7month stand7off in the midd e of 2012( 1ani a sa*s the shoa ' a ri$h fishing gro%nd that has in effe$t )een $ontro ed )* China sin$e the 4hi ippines withdrew its ships to end the impasse' is o$ated a)o%t 120 mi es west of the 4hi ippines $oast )%t ies more than >60 mi es from China( No matter how the 4hi ippine memoria is pa$/aged' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the atter8s i ega o$$%pation of some of China8s is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea 7 China foreign ministr* 5ntonio Carpio' a 4hi ippines s%preme $o%rt ,%dge' said 1ani a is not as/ing the tri)%na to determine the ownership of the disp%ted ro$/s' shoa s or reefs' )%t on * to $ arif* if the most * s%)merged feat%res are entit ed to their own maritime :ones( !+he 4hi ippines is as/ing the tri)%na if China8s nine7dashed ines $an negate the 4hi ippines8 e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one as g%aranteed %nder Un$ os'F he said in a spee$h in De)r%ar*( !+he 4hi ippines is a so as/ing the tri)%na if $ertain ro$/s a)ove water at high tide' i/e S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' generate a 2007na%ti$a mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one or on * a 127 na%ti$a mi e territoria sea(F +he move to fi e a !memoria F paves the wa* for forma de i)erations )* the tri)%na on whether it has ,%risdi$tion and on the s%)stantive iss%es( 3t mar/s the first time that China8s !nine7dash ineF wi )e s%),e$ted to intense internationa

s$r%tin* )* some of the wor d8s foremost internationa aw e#perts( 3n De)r%ar*' the 4hi ippines we $omed the move )* the US to weigh in on the !nine7dashF ine for the first time( Dann* -%sse ' the top US dip omat for east 5sia' to d the US Congress that !the internationa $omm%nit* wo% d we $ome China to $ arif* or ad,%st its Snine7dash8 ine $ aim to )ring it in a$$ordan$e with the internationa aw of the seaF( Cigh 9%a it* g o)a ,o%rna ism re9%ires investment( 4 ease share this arti$ e with others %sing the in/ )e ow' do not $%t P paste the arti$ e( See o%r +sPCs and Cop*right 4o i$* for more detai ( "mai ftsa es(s%pportQft($om to )%* additiona rights( http=00www(ft($om0$ms0s000d$>89B$e7)Aa$711e>780ef7 001??fea)d$0(htm Ri#::2#fO5fANIIIIIIIIIIIII China )e ieves the internationa tri)%te to ar)itrate these m% tip e $ aims' whi$h the 4hi ipines are ta/ing the tas/ to reso ve' have S imited ,%rispr%den$e to de$ide8( China wanted )i atera ta /s e#$ %sive * with ea$h of the So%th "ast 5sian nations having the vario%s m% tip e $ aims within the imaginar* SNine7Dash7Line8 a tho%gh 1a a*sia' Eietnam and the 4hi ippines are reso ved towards a m% ti7 atera dia og%es with $ aimants( On S%nda*' the 4hi ippines s%)mitted to the United Nations for the ar)itration( +he ;a Street .o%rna stor*(

China so far has a)stained from the pro$eedings in the matter' whi$h the 4hi ippines first raised in .an%ar* %nder the U(N( Convention on the Law of the Sea( Now that the $ase for ar)itration has )een fi ed' the UN tri)%na wi de$ide on what steps are to )e ta/en ne#t( 4hi ippine Doreign Se$retar* 5 )ert de -osario said on S%nda* that see/ing ar)itration !is a)o%t defending what is egitimate * o%rsF and se$%ring a !,%st and d%ra) e so %tion gro%nded on 3nternationa Law(F China8s foreign ministr* dismissed the ar)itration fi ing in a statement posted on its we)site S%nda* night' reiterating its position that it $onsiders the disp%te a )i atera matter to )e reso ved thro%gh dire$t negotiations( !-egard ess of how the 4hi ippines pa$/ages its $omp aint' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te is i ega o$$%pation of reefs in the So%th China Sea on the part of the 4hi ippines'F it said( +he 4hi ippines8 $ha enge $omes as 1ani a engages in another protra$ted $at7and7mo%se game to evade Chinese ships apparent * attempting to ) o$/ade one of the 4hi ippines8 few o%tposts in the region= a r%sting h% / marooned on Se$ond +homas Shoa ( 5 4hi ippine ship managed Sat%rda* to s ip past a Chinese vesse to res%pp * a sma $ontingent of Di ipino so diers a)oard the ;or d ;ar 337era Sierra 1adre' whi$h was steered onto Se$ond +homas Shoa in 1999( +he wre$/ is one of the 4hi ippines8 few visi) e $ aims to sovereignt* in the So%th China Sea' something of a s*m)o i$ mar/er in efforts to withstand China8s growing am)itions( 3n re$ent wee/s China has attempted to stop 4hi ippine for$es from res%pp *ing the wre$/' for$ing the 4hi ippines to $ond%$t air drops( .o%rna ists from the 5sso$iated 4ress and other news organi:ations were a)oard the 4hi ippine s%pp * vesse and reported hearing a Chinese $oast g%ard ship warning it to sta* awa* )* radio( +he 4hi ippine ship' $arr*ing some 10 tons of food and water' s ipped awa* after heading into sha ower waters where the Chinese vesse $o% dn8t fo ow( China8s foreign ministr* said in a statement Sat%rda* that !China wi a)so %te * not a ow the 4hi ippines to o$$%p*F Se$ond +homas Shoa ( +he 4hi ippine ega $ha enge to China8s $ aims is perhaps a more signifi$ant disp a* of resistan$e( +he waters' whi$h $arr* aro%nd ha f of the wor d8s trade' are a so $ aimed in part )* Eietnam' 1a a*sia' <r%nei and +aiwan and tensions have ed to a series of $onfrontations in past de$ades( 5n* de$ision )* the U(N( $o% d )ear on how the over apping territoria $ aims are % timate * reso ved and $o% d stir tensions )etween China and the U(S( +he O)ama administration inf%riated <ei,ing in 2010 when then7Se$retar* of State Ci ar* C inton des$ri)ed the free navigation of the So%th China Sea as )eing in 5meri$a8s !nationa interest(F China has sin$e attempted to step %p $ontro ' among other things dispat$hing nomina * $ivi ian $oast g%ard vesse s into disp%ted waters( <ei,ing arg%es ea$h territoria disp%te sho% d )e reso ved on a )i atera )asis( ;ashington and the

4hi ippines See/s 5r)itration at U(N( Over China8s C aims in So%th China Sea Contested ;aters Carr* C%ge Eo %me of ;or d +rade <* .51"S COOO;5U CONN"C+ Updated 1ar$h >0' 201? 11=>1 a(m( "+ +he Sierra 1adre has 4hi ippine troops dep o*ed on )oard and is an$hored off Se$ond +homas Shoa ( 5sso$iated 4ress0<% it 1ar9%e: +he 4hi ippines fi ed an ar)itration $ase S%nda* with the United Nations over China8s growing assertiveness in the So%th China Sea' raising the ante in a ong7r%nning disp%te over who owns what in the strategi$' energ*7ri$h waters( 1ani a has )een preparing for months to fi e its $ha enge to China8s $ aim to $ontro ever*thing within a )road e#panse of the sea de ineated )* its so7$a ed !nine7dash ine(F +he 4hi ippines8 s%)mission is near * ?'000 pages ong' in$ %des more than ?0 maps and is aimed at $o%ntering <ei,ing8s arg%ment that $ontro ing most * s%)merged feat%res s%$h as reefs or shoa s provides China with sovereignt* over the sea' in$ %ding some 80V of the 4hi ippines8 U(N(7de$ ared e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one( +he $ontested waters in$ %de areas potentia * ri$h in oi and gas' as we as ri$h fishing waters s%$h as S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' where 4hi ippine and Chinese vesse s were o$/ed in a standoff for near * two months in 2012(

5sso$iation of So%theast 5sian want a m% ti atera ' r% es7)ased approa$h( IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII Sin$e 1990aWs China i ega * o$$%pied S$ar)oro%gh Shoa s' whi$h is part of the 4hi ippines8 ""& as per o%t ined )* United Nations Convention Law of the Seas (UNCLOS)( Cistori$a *' S$ar)oro%gh Shoa s are part of the 4hi ippines from the +reat* of ;ashington( +he 1900 +reat* of ;ashington provided that an* and a is ands )e onging to the 4hi ippines ar$hipe ago' *ing o%tside the ines des$ri)ed in 5rti$ e 333 of the +reat* of 4aris' were a so $eded to the United States( +his in$ %ded S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' whi$h is o%tside the +reat* of 4aris treat* ines( 3n effe$t' the +reat* of ;ashington amended the +reat* of 4aris' so that the is ands $eded )* Spain to the U(S( in$ %ded is ands within and o%tside the +reat* of 4aris treat* ines' so ong as Spain had tit e or $ aim of tit e to the is ands( +he 4hi ippine8s )i atera disp%te with China over the shoa )egan on >0 5pri 199A when the 4hi ippines nava ships were prevented )* Chinese )oats from approa$hing the shoa ( On 6 .%ne 199A' Domingo Sia:on' who was then the 4hi ippines Se$retar* of Doreign 5ffairs' testified in front of the Committee on Doreign -e ations of the United States Senate that the Shoa was !5 new iss%e on over apping $ aims )etween the 4hi ippines and ChinaF( 3n 2009' 4resident 2 oria 1a$apaga 75rro*o ena$ted the 4hi ippine <ase ines Law of 2009 (-5 9622)( +he new aw $ assified the Oa a*aan 3s and 2ro%p and the S$ar)oro%gh Shoa as a regime of is ands %nder the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines( +he 4hi ippines armed for$es had to dodge the China8s 4L5 Nav* (4L5N) ) o$/ade of S$ar)oro%gh Shoa s to rea$h Se$ond +homas Shoa ( -e%ters stor*= 4hi ippine ship dodges China ) o$/ade to rea$h So%th China Sea o%tpost <U "-3O D" C5S+-O 5ND -OL3 N2 S"COND +CO15S SCO5L' So%th China Sea 1on 1ar >1' 201? ?=>Aam "D+ S"COND +CO15S SCO5L' So%th China Sea (-e%ters) 7+he 4hi ippine government vesse made a dash for sha ow waters aro%nd the disp%ted reef in the So%th China Sea' evading two Chinese $oastg%ard ships tr*ing to ) o$/ its path to de iver food' water and fresh troops to a mi itar* o%tpost on the shoa ( +he $at7and7mo%se en$o%nter on Sat%rda*' witnessed )* -e%ters and other media invited on)oard the 4hi ippine ship' offered a rare g impse into the tensions p a*ing o%t ro%tine * in waters that are one of the region8s )iggest f ashpoints( 3t8s a so a reminder of how assertive China has )e$ome in pressing its $ aims to disp%ted territor* far from its main and(

!3f we didn8t $hange dire$tion' if we didn8t $hange $o%rse' then we wo% d have $o ided with them'F Derdinand 2ato' $aptain of the 4hi ippine vesse ' a $ivi ian $raft' to d -e%ters after his )oat had an$hored on the Se$ond +homas Shoa %nder a hot s%n( +he o%tpost is a h%ge' r%sting ;or d ;ar +wo transport vesse that the 4hi ippine nav* intentiona * ran agro%nd in 1999 to mar/ its $ aim to the reef( +here' aro%nd eight Di ipino so diers ive for three months at a time in harsh $onditions on a reef that 1ani a sa*s is within its 2007na%ti$a mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&)( China' whi$h $ aims 90 per$ent of the So%th China Sea' sa*s the shoa is part of its territor*( +hings were going smooth * for the 4hi ippine ship %nti it was spotted )* a Chinese $oastg%ard ship a)o%t an ho%r awa* from the Se$ond +homas Shoa ( +he Chinese )oat pi$/ed %p speed to $ome near the eft of the white 4hi ippine ship' hon/ing its horn at east three times( +he Chinese ship s owed down after a few min%tes' )%t then a )igger $oastg%ard vesse emerged' moving fast to $%t the path of the 4hi ippine )oat( +he Chinese sent a radio message to the Di ipinos' sa*ing the* were entering Chinese territor*( !;e order *o% to stop immediate *' stop a i ega a$tivities and eave'F said the radio message' de ivered in "ng ish( 2ato rep ied that his mission was to de iver provisions to 4hi ippine troops stationed in the area( 4hi ippine troops wearing $ivi ian $ othes and ,o%rna ists then f ashed !EF for the pea$e sign at the Chinese( ;5+CC"D D-O1 +C" SOU 3nstead of stopping or reversing' the 4hi ippine vesse pi$/ed %p speed and event%a * mane%vered awa* from the Chinese' entering waters that were too sha ow for the )igger $oastg%ard ships( 5 U(S( nav* p ane' a 4hi ippine mi itar* air$raft and a Chinese p ane' a visi) e from their mar/ings' f ew a)ove the ships at different interva s( Di ipino troops on the $ivi ian vesse $ apped as the* $ame within a few meters of the marooned transport ship' the <-4 Sierra 1adre( S%pp ies of food and water were then ha% ed %p to troops on)oard( Later' the eight so diers d%e to )e re ieved p%t on mi itar* fatig%es for a dai * $eremon* to ower the 4hi ippine f ag at d%s/( +he* had )een s$hed% ed to go home three wee/s ago )%t Chinese ships ) o$/ed two 4hi ippine s%pp * vesse s from rea$hing them on 1ar$h 9' a move protested )* 1ani a and whi$h the United States des$ri)ed as !provo$ativeF( +he 4hi ippines resorted to air dropping food and water instead( !;hat we want to a$$omp ish is for this area to remain o%rs( +his is the one thing that we are g%arding here'F said sergeant

.err* D%entes' a 4hi ippine marine set to dep o* on the <-4 Sierra 1adre( China8s Doreign 1inistr* said ate on Sat%rda* that the a$tion )* the 4hi ippines wo% d not $hange the rea it* of China8s sovereignt* over the shoa ' whi$h <ei,ing $a s -en8ai reef( !China wi never to erate the 4hi ippines8 o$$%pation of the -en8ai reef in an* form'F it said( China disp a*s its $ aims to the So%th China Sea on offi$ia maps with a so7$a ed nine7dash ine that stret$hes deep into the maritime heart of So%theast 5sia( +he ships of its re$ent * %nified $oastg%ard are a fi#t%re aro%nd the disp%ted waters( ;hi e the* don8t have the weaponr* of mi itar* vesse s' th%s red%$ing the ris/ a $onfrontation $o% d get o%t of $ontro ' the* sti represent a potent show of sovereignt*( Eietnam' 1a a*sia' <r%nei and +aiwan a so have $ aims to parts of the potentia * energ*7ri$h waters( -aising the sta/es over the So%th China Sea' the 4hi ippines fi ed a $ase against China on S%nda* at an ar)itration tri)%na in +he Cag%e' s%),e$ting <ei,ing to internationa ega s$r%tin* over the waters for the first time( 1ani a is see/ing a r% ing at the 4ermanent Co%rt of 5r)itration to $onfirm its right to e#p oit the waters in its ""& as a owed %nder the U(N( Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)' its team of U(S( and <ritish aw*ers have said( China reiterated on S%nda* that it wo% d not a$$ept internationa ar)itration' sa*ing the on * wa* to reso ve the disp%te was thro%gh )i atera negotiations( !-egard ess of how the 4hi ippines pa$/ages its aws%it' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the 4hi ippines8 i ega o$$%pation of part of the is ands in the So%th China Sea'F Doreign 1inistr* spo/esman Cong Lei said in a statement( +he U(S( State Department said a $o%ntries sho% d respe$t the right of an* state to %se disp%te reso %tion me$hanisms %nder the Convention on the Law of the Sea( !-egard ess of the res% ts of this ar)itration pro$eeding' we $a on a parties to refrain from ta/ing %ni atera a$tions that are es$a ator* and desta)i i:ing'F spo/eswoman 1arie Carf said( 4hi ippines Doreign Se$retar* 5 )ert de -osario to d a news $onferen$e in 1ani a on S%nda* that 1ani a does not e#pe$t the tri)%na to rea$h a de$ision )efore the end of 2016( !+he 9%estion of' what if the 4hi ippines gets a favora) e r% ingX +he 4hi ippines has a wa*s ta/en the position that a favora) e r% ing is a r% ing that China' as a mem)er of the $omm%nit* of nations' is )o%nd ega * to a$$ept and to imp ement'F government aw*er Dran$is .arde e:a said( (+his stor* was refi ed to fi# t*po in aw*er8s name in fina paragraph)

(5dditiona reporting )* <en < an$hard and S%i7Lee ;ee in <ei,ing and 1an%e 1ogato in 15N3L5@ ;riting )* -osemarie Dran$is$o@ "diting )* Dean Uates) IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII 2oing to the United Nations and getting an internationa tri)%na to reso ve iss%es s%$h as the S$ar)oro%gh Shoa s is the 4hi ipines8 initiative to /Spea0 so!t # and "arr# a (ig sti"01( 3t e#pe$ted to )e raised in the informa AS2AN -e!ense Ministers Meeting 3ith the United States in Cawaii' starting tomorrow( Never the ess' the in"reasing # gro3ing China.s +LAN aggressive maneuvres 4poor # (eing mas5uaraded as /Training and exer"ises16 3ithin the ,Nine&-ash&Line. is a test deep * wedging a division )etween its seeming # rede!ined ,+anda dip oma"# S tr*ing to )a an$e )etween the position and ro e as the se$ond argest wor d e$onom* and $ons%mer and an %p$oming S%per 4ower and 0or Sneigh)o%rhood notorio%s )ig )% *8( Lessons from -%ssia8s de$isive move in Crimea amidst internationa $ries is something that 5S"5N have to )e rea * $on$ern a)o%t( +he Dip omat arti$ e= Crimea and So%th China Sea Dip oma$* -%ssia8s )ig move shows )oth the imits and importan$e of dip oma$* in territoria disp%tes( <* Sophie <oissea% d% -o$her P <r%no Ce endorff 5pri 01' 201? On 1ar$h 18' China and 5S"5N gathered in Singapore to p%rs%e $ons% tations on a Code of Cond%$t (COC) for the So%th China Sea' a ongside ta /s on the imp ementation of the De$ aration of Cond%$t (DOC)( +he gathering $ame at a time of rising preo$$%pation over a per$eived $reeping assertiveness )* China in p%rs%ing its maritime $ aims( .%st one wee/ )efore' 1ani a and <ei,ing e#perien$ed another dip omati$ row' after Chinese Coast 2%ard vesse s )arred the res%pp * of 4hi ippine marines )ased in the Sprat * 3s ands( 3n )roader terms' severa high7profi e deve opments have hinted that China is )e$oming more in$ ined to $onsider the threat and %se of for$e as its preferred vehi$ e for inf %en$e in the So%th China Sea( China8s $onsidera) e maritime )%i d7%p has )een a$$ompanied )* the merging of its maritime agen$ies into a %nified Coast 2%ard %nit' the p%) i$ation of maps with a 107dash ine $overing Chinese $ aims in the So%th China Sea' and even the anno%n$ement of an 5ir Defense 3dentifi$ation &one (5D3&) in the "ast China Sea' $overing the disp%ted Sen/a/%0Diao*% is ands( 5 have $ontri)%ted to t%rning the So%th China Sea into !5sia8s $a% dron'F as one renowned e#pert tit ed his ast )oo/( 5 wide * $ir$% ated photograph pi$t%ring Chinese sai ors forming the s ogan !+he Chinese dream' the dream of a strong mi itar*F on the de$/ of the Liaoning did nothing to he p mitigate nervo%sness over Chinese aims and strateg* in the region( +he timing of these China75S"5N dis$%ssions $oin$ided with rising tensions in "astern "%rope aro%nd the fate of Crimea( 3n

re$ent da*s' neither internationa aw nor "%ropean press%re have proved of m%$h va %e in the fa$e of -%ssian reso ve( 3 ega in man* respe$ts' the Crimean referend%m was sti deemed va id in 1os$ow' whi$h s%)se9%ent * anne#ed the region( +he U/rainian mi itar* )ases in Crimea were rapid * overwhe med )* pro7-%ssian for$es as the ast vestiges of po iti$a $ontro from Oiev were swept aside' ma/ing a ret%rn to stat%s 9%o ante in$reasing * remote( -%ssia $ ear * has the %pper hand in Crimea( 3t s%$$essf% * promoted its interests thro%gh a $om)ination of intimidation and $raw ing assertiveness whi e answering "%ropean and 5meri$an $riti$isms )* pointing to ;estern interventions in Oosovo and Li)*a( +he arger $onse9%en$es of this strateg* for "%ro7 -%ssian re ations and sta)i it* in "astern "%rope remain %n$ ear( Cowever' this demonstration of how' in $ertain sit%ations' for$e prevai s over dip oma$*' a notion ong fo%ght )* the "%ropean Union' has opened a new 4andora8s )o#( Certain *' -%ssia8s )id to )end internationa norms in its favor thro%gh the %se of for$e' and ;estern rea$tions to it are )eing wat$hed with great interest' and pro)a) * some trepidation' in <ei,ing and So%theast 5sia( ;hether the Crimea iss%e wi have inf %en$e in So%theast 5sia' in the $onte#t of $ompeting territoria $ aims' is far from $ ear( Cowever' the Crimean and So%th China Sea iss%es have severa e ements in $ommon( One of the most prominent is the $omp e#it* of managingY et a one so vingYterritoria disp%tes' espe$ia * when dea ing with an evo ving power( 5nother is that )oth $ases stress the ne$essit* )%t imited effi$a$* of dip oma$*( Confronted with a $omp e# and $ontradi$tor* China' So%theast 5sian $o%ntries ma* derive a sense of %rgen$* from deve opments in the Crimea( Dor 5S"5N and its mem)ers' the $r%$ia 9%estion ma* we )e whether the* $an s%$$eed in $onvin$ing China of the ong7term )enefits of dip oma$* over for$e and fait a$$omp i( 3t ma* we )e 5S"5N8s ast $han$e= Negotiations )egan 22 *ears ago' in 1992' and have *et to prod%$e $onvin$ing res% ts for either part*( 3f the 2002 De$ aration reaffirmed a $ommitment to internationa aw and freedom of navigation' there has )een o)vio%s eviden$e of %ni atera ism )* $ertain parties' )e the* the Di ipino government' the Chinese mi itar* or even the Cainan a%thorities( +he $ase ma* )e pressed f%rther in ight of the Crimea events= sho% d a Code of Cond%$t )e effe$tive * agreed' withYas China made $ earYno dead ine for its a$t%a imp ementation' wi it s%ffi$e to $%rtai nationa fr%stration from an* part*' imit tensions and therefore avoid es$a ationX Dip oma$* is important( 3t is the $hanne thro%gh whi$h the different sta/eho ders $an show$ase and e#p ain their diverging per$eptions and interests' $omm%ni$ate' negotiate' and % timate * $reate a path to de7es$a ation and sta)i i:ation for f%t%re $ommon )enefit( <%t it $o% d a so prove imited in that it is arge * dependent on power $onfig%rations and f%n$tions %nder a series of $onventions and norms that $an either fa$i itate or $onstrain dis$%ssions( 3n the Crimean and So%th China Sea $ases' dip oma$* is arge *' *et not e#$ %sive *' %nderta/en %nder the parti$% ar framewor/ of one internationa instit%tion (the "U or 5S"5N) engaging one great power (-%ssia or China)( Da$i itating dis$%ssions is the fa$t that in )oth sit%ations' sta/eho ders are $onne$ted thro%gh a series of strong e$onomi$' po iti$a and instit%tiona interests( +he )ad news is that these networ/s of interests oo/ rather fragi e when histor* )e$omes a se f7asserted' and emotiona ' arg%ment( 1oreover' interna divisions within )oth the "U and 5S"5N have the $onse9%en$e of ) %rring the $ommon vision that their mem)ers ma* see/ to promote' wea/ening their negotiating position and $onstraining the options avai a) e to

their dip omats( 3n )oth $ases' the )asi$ worr* for the "U and 5S"5N a i/e is to $ome %p with a $ompe ing response to po iti$a and mi itar* reso ve' with internationa aw and negotiations offering itt e assistan$e( +he Singapore ro%nd of $ons% tations on a Code of Cond%$t in the So%th China Sea prod%$ed no nota) e progress( +hat is not m%$h of a s%rprise to e#perts a read* of the opinion that the ver* pro$ess is mere * $osmeti$ and deserving of itt e attention' arg%ing that China wi not give wa* on what it $onsiders its nationa and sovereign territor*( Other a%thors have e#p ained that Chinese dip omats are $ontent with the DoC' and wi not p%sh for 9%i$/ progress on a CoC as the atter wo% d inevita) * h%rt the nationa interest( S%$h spe$% ation and do%)t over the s$ope and effe$tiveness of the negotiations did not a ter 5S"5N8s offi$ia ine= san$tions do not he p@ $ons% tations are a wa*s )etter( ;i the f%t%re prove that $orre$tX 3t appears that 5S"5N8s )et is to prove that China sees an interest in these ta /s and wo% d gain in fo owing $ertain r% es not ,%st in terms of image and stat%s )%t a so in promoting its views and !dreamF thro%gh an 5S"5N p atform( <efore the re$ent events in Crimea' 5S"5N8s dip oma$* was $onsidered ade9%ate )* most sta/eho dersYwith the possi) e e#$eption of the 4hi ippines' whi$h nonethe ess $ease ess * appea ed to the ) o$ for he p( 5 $ aimant $o%ntries and their neigh)ors fo%nd an interest in p%rs%ing d%a 7tra$/ negotiations with China' )i atera and m% ti atera ' the atter stage main * serving' via 5S"5N' $omm%ni$ation p%rposes( <%t now ma* )e the time to $onsider adding more s%)stan$e to the dis$%ssions' and more g %e to the So%theast 5sian $ aimants( +he Crimea is far from the So%th China Sea' and the two $onte#ts $ertain * differ in man* respe$ts( <%t -%ssia8s )o d move has shown that resorting to internationa aw to $ontain a great power8s reso ve is not a wa*s effe$tive( "ven in 1os$ow' few wo% d disagree' pointing to the invasion of Li)*a or that of 3ra9 as $o%ntere#amp es( ;hether the events of the Crimea provide essons to Chinese and 5S"5N dip omats is %n/nown' )%t the* have made a Code of Cond%$t for the So%th China Sea an %rgent dip omati$ imperative( S%$$ess wo% d show$ase China8s !pea$ef% riseF as it wo% d 5S"5N8s dip omati$ $apa$it*( +he efforts of )oth partners to $reate sta)i it* and se$%rit* wo% d a so )e we $ome news to a heavi * $ha enged internationa $omm%nit*( <r%no Ce endorff is a -esear$h De ow and Dr( Sophie <oissea% d% -o$her is an 5sso$iate -esear$her at the 2ro%p for -esear$h and 3nformation on 4ea$e and Se$%rit*' <r%sse s( IIIIIIIIIIIIII Crimea provided <ei,ing with fresh motivation for a 4L5 so %tion to prote$t China8s interests within their imaginar* SNine7Dash7Line8(

Law of the Sea (Un$ os)( +he so7$a ed !memoria F %rges the tri)%na to inva idate the !nine7dash ineF that China in$ %des on maps to ,%stif* its $ aim to a most the entire So%th China Sea( <ei,ing responded to the move )* $a ing on the 4hi ippines to engage in dire$t ta /s over the disp%ted is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea( !No matter how the 4hi ippine memoria is pa$/aged' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the atter8s i ega o$$%pation of some of China8s is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea'F said the Chinese foreign ministr*( +he 4hi ippines and China are )oth signatories to Un$ os' whi$h spe s o%t the maritime rights of states' and the means for sett ing disp%tes over over apping sea $ aims( <%t China has ref%sed to parti$ipate in the $ase' whi$h wi )e heard )* a five7,%dge tri)%na in +he Cag%e' sa*ing it was !%ni atera * initiatedF )* 1ani a( +he Chinese foreign ministr* said the disp%te with the 4hi ippines was !e#$ %ded from ar)itrationF )e$a%se of a de$ aration made )* China when it ratified Un$ os in 200B( !China8s re,e$tion of the 4hi ippines8 s%)mission for ar)itration is so id * )ased on internationa aw' and China8s awf% rights as a part* to Un$ os sho% d )e tr% * respe$ted(F China is invo ved in maritime disp%tes with severa neigh)o%rs' )%t the 4hi ippines and .apan have )een the most aggressive in $ha enging its $ aims( 3n De)r%ar*' <enigno 59%ino' the 4hi ippines president' $ompared China8s in$reasing * assertive stan$e in the So%th China Sea to Cit er8s p%sh for C:e$hos ova/ian and in 19>8( +he Sino7Di ipino disp%te $omes as China and the US vie for power in the 4a$ifi$( China is rapid * e#panding its maritime $apa)i ities as the US $ontin%es its !pivotF to 5sia( 5head of 4resident <ara$/ O)ama8s visit to the 4hi ippines in 5pri ' ;ashington and 1ani a are tr*ing to fina ise a dea that wo% d a ow the US to )ase ships and troops in the so%theast 5sian nation on a rotationa )asis( 3n anno%n$ing the s%)mission of the a most ?'0007page memoria ' 5 )ert De -osario' the 4hi ippines foreign se$retar*' said it was %n$ ear how China wo% d respond( !Ordinari *' the ne#t step in an ar)itration of this nat%re wo% d )e the fi ing of a $o%nter7memoria )* the other part*'F said 1r De -osario( !Cowever' it is $%rrent * %n/nown whether China wi appear in the $ase' or whether it wi $ontin%e its present po i$* of a)staining from the pro$eedings(F

"#isting oi and gas fie ds' m% tip e $ aims and China8s Simaginar* territor*8 d%))ed SNine7Dash7Line8 in So%th "ast 5sia China8s arrogan$e and se f7preservation greed growing * is worr*ing( "spe$ia * when she ref%se to respe$t the United Nations and UNCLOS' $iting preferen$e for dia og%e as the Sdip omati$ drama8 where as the $hoi$e of a$tion a a ong was to %se dep o* mi itar* for$e and impose d%ress onto others( China re,e$ts 4hi ippines $ase on Snine7dash8 ine <* Demetri Sevastop% o in Cong Oong and -oe Landingin in 1ani a Cigh 9%a it* g o)a ,o%rna ism re9%ires investment( 4 ease share this arti$ e with others %sing the in/ )e ow' do not $%t P paste the arti$ e( See o%r +sPCs and Cop*right 4o i$* for more detai ( "mai ftsa es(s%pportQft($om to )%* additiona rights( http=00www(ft($om0$ms0s000d$>89B$e7)Aa$711e>780ef7 001??fea)d$0(htm Ri#::2:ag286Ce China has $riti$ised the 4hi ippines for forging ahead with an %npre$edented internationa ar)itration $ aim against <ei,ing over $ontested waters in the So%th China Sea( 1ani a on S%nda* s%)mitted a p eading to the )od* that ar)itrates maritime disp%tes %nder the UN Convention on the

1ani a arg%es that the tri)%na sho% d inva idate the !nine7dash ineF )e$a%se it stret$hes to ,%st >0760 mi es from the 4hi ippines' $%tting off the so%theast 5sian $o%ntr*8s 2007mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and $ontinenta she f' in vio ation of Un$ os( 1ani a sa*s it wo% d ose 80 per $ent of its ""& in waters off the western 4hi ippines' in$ %ding areas $ontaining h%ge oi and gas deposits' if it a$$epted the ine( +he 4hi ippines is a so tr*ing to stop China from o$$%p*ing or ) o$/ing a$$ess )* 4hi ippine )oats and fishermen to eight so7 $a ed !s%)merged feat%resF that ie within its ""&' in$ %ding S$ar)oro%gh Shoa where Chinese and 4hi ippine maritime vesse s fig%red in a two7month stand7off in the midd e of 2012( 1ani a sa*s the shoa ' a ri$h fishing gro%nd that has in effe$t )een $ontro ed )* China sin$e the 4hi ippines withdrew its ships to end the impasse' is o$ated a)o%t 120 mi es west of the 4hi ippines $oast )%t ies more than >60 mi es from China( No matter how the 4hi ippine memoria is pa$/aged' the dire$t $a%se of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines is the atter8s i ega o$$%pation of some of China8s is ands and reefs in the So%th China Sea 7 China foreign ministr* 5ntonio Carpio' a 4hi ippines s%preme $o%rt ,%dge' said 1ani a is not as/ing the tri)%na to determine the ownership of the disp%ted ro$/s' shoa s or reefs' )%t on * to $ arif* if the most * s%)merged feat%res are entit ed to their own maritime :ones( !+he 4hi ippines is as/ing the tri)%na if China8s nine7dashed ines $an negate the 4hi ippines8 e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one as g%aranteed %nder Un$ os'F he said in a spee$h in De)r%ar*( !+he 4hi ippines is a so as/ing the tri)%na if $ertain ro$/s a)ove water at high tide' i/e S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' generate a 2007na%ti$a mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one or on * a 127 na%ti$a mi e territoria sea(F +he move to fi e a !memoria F paves the wa* for forma de i)erations )* the tri)%na on whether it has ,%risdi$tion and on the s%)stantive iss%es( 3t mar/s the first time that China8s !nine7dash ineF wi )e s%),e$ted to intense internationa s$r%tin* )* some of the wor d8s foremost internationa aw e#perts( 3n De)r%ar*' the 4hi ippines we $omed the move )* the US to weigh in on the !nine7dashF ine for the first time( Dann* -%sse ' the top US dip omat for east 5sia' to d the US Congress that !the internationa $omm%nit* wo% d we $ome China to $ arif* or ad,%st its Snine7dash8 ine $ aim to )ring it in a$$ordan$e with the internationa aw of the seaF(

Tags: S$ar)oro%gh Shoa 5fter two wee/s' there is sti no end in sight to the standoff )etween 4hi ippine and Chinese vesse s at the 4anatag (S$ar)oro%gh) Shoa ( Lo$ated west of 1asin o$ in &am)a es provin$e' the reso%r$e7ri$h $ %ster of reefs and is ets is within the territoria imits of the 4hi ippines' )%t China has a so aid histori$a $ aim to the area(

215 News On ine has prepared the primer )e ow' whi$h e#p ains some of the most fre9%ent * %sed terms )* offi$ia s' to he p readers navigate the ,argon7 aden statements from )oth sides of the $ontin%ing $onf i$t in the west 4hi ippine Sea(

7hat is the UNCLOS8 +he United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)' a so /nown as the Law of the Sea +reat*' is the internationa agreement that defined the imits of the territoria seas of nations and the areas in whi$h the* $o% d e#p oit marine reso%r$es(

3t a so esta) ished the r% es for the %se of the high seas for internationa navigation' and o%t ined the rights and responsi)i ities of nations in the prote$tion of the marine environment(

7hat 3as the rationa e !or UNCLOS8 3n the past' the three7mi e r% e was traditiona * %sed )* $oasta states to determine the imits of their territoria waters( 5fter ;or d ;ar 33' however' states )egan e#tending their $ontro )e*ond previo%s imits(

3n 19?6' d%e to domesti$ oi demands' the United States $ aimed the right to harvest the nat%ra reso%r$es in its $ontinenta she f( Chi e' 4er%' and "$%ador asserted sovereign rights over a 2007mi e :one' hoping to imit the a$$ess of foreign fishing f eets and prevent the dep etion of fish sto$/s in their ad,a$ent seas(

"g*pt' "thiopia' Sa%di 5ra)ia' Li)*a' Eene:%e a' and some

"astern "%ropean $o%ntries $ aimed 12 mi es as part of their territoria seas( 1eanwhi e' ar$hipe agi$ nations s%$h as 3ndonesia and the 4hi ippines asserted the right to dominion over the waters that separated their is ands( +he UNCLOS provides for the fo owing= 7hat are the main provisions o! the treat#8

<e$a%se of this m% tit%de of $ aims and $o%nter$ aims' the UNCLOS )e$ame ne$essar* to reso ve $onf i$ts among $o%ntries over the seas ad,a$ent to their $oasts(

+aseline G Determined )* $onne$ting points on the $oast ine from a arge map' this is the starting point for meas%ring the maritime territor* of a $oasta state(

7hen did the agreement "ome into !or"e8

Territorial sea G +his is the )e t of sea 12 na%ti$a mi es from the )ase ine( 3n this area' the $oasta state e#er$ises sovereign

5fter eight *ears of negotiations' the $onvention $on$ %ded in 1982 and $ame into for$e as a )inding treat* in 199?(

rights and ma* arrest foreign ships(

$ontiguous -one G +his is the maritime area not e#$eeding 2? 7ho are the mem(ers o! UNCLOS8 5s of .%ne 2011' the Convention had 1B2 signatories( +he 4hi ippines signed it on 1a* 8' 198?' whi e China signed it on .%ne A' 199B( na%ti$a mi es from the )ase ines( +he $oasta state e#er$ises a%thorit* over this area to the e#tent ne$essar* to prevent infringement of its $%stoms' fis$a ' immigration' or sanitation a%thorit* over its territoria waters( +his is a response to the pra$ti$e of foreign ships ingering )e*ond a state8s territoria sea' and th%s )e*ond its $rimina ,%risdi$tion' where the* $ommit a$ts inimi$a to the $oasta state(

.'clusive .conomic -one or ..- G +his is the maritime area within 200 na%ti$a mi es from a $o%ntr*8s )ase ine( ;ithin the ""&' the $oasta state has rights over the e$onomi$ reso%r$es of the sea' sea)ed' and s%)soi to the e#$ %sion of other states( Cowever' other nations have the right of navigation and overf ight over this area' s%),e$t to the reg% ation of the $oasta state(

$ontinental #helf G +his is the sea)ed and s%)soi of the s%)marine areas ad,a$ent to the $oasta state )%t o%tside the territoria sea( +he $ontinenta she f e#tends 200 na%ti$a mi es' and in some $ases ma* e#tend %p to >60 mi es' fo owing the nat%ra pro ongation of the soi ( +he $oasta state has the right to e#p ore and e#p oit the nat%ra reso%r$es in this area' )%t this right does not e#tend to other materia s s%$h as shipwre$/s(

7hat are the pena ties !or !ai ure to "omp # 3ith the

provisions o! UNCLOS8

3n $ase of disp%tes' states are mandated to sett e their disp%te )* pea$ef% means( +his ma* )e done thro%gh an ar)itration pro$ed%re of their $hoi$e( 3f no sett ement is rea$hed thro%gh an ar)iter' the* $an )ring the $ase to the 3+LOS' the 3nternationa Co%rt of .%sti$e (the tri)%na of the United Nations)' or a spe$ia tri)%na ( +hese tri)%na s mete o%t the pena ties' whi$h ma* )e in the form of pa*ment of reparations(

China.s nine&dash ine !ai s to meet UNCLOS maritime !eatures re5uirements :ou need and (e!ore #ou " aim rights to the sea ; +9 so i"itor genera

4hi ippine So i$itor 2enera Dran$is .arde e:a 15N3L5' 4hi ippines Y ;ith a itt e over a month )efore the 4hi ippines s%)mits its written arg%ments to the internationa 4ermanent Co%rt of 5r)itration' So i$itor 2enera Dran$is .arde e:a p%) i$ * spo/e for the first time a)o%t the )asis of the 4hi ippines8 $ase against China8s $ aim to near * the entire So%th China0;est 4hi ippine Sea( !Uo% need to have and )efore *o% $an have rights to the sea( 3t8s as simp e as that(Uo% $annot ,%st have rights to the sea witho%t owning and'F .arde e:a said in a for%m in the Universit* of the 4hi ippines (U4) aw $enter' $iting the )asi$ prin$ip e of the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)( China' in 2009' s%)mitted to the UN its !nine7dash ineF $ aim that $overs the entire So%th China Sea' in$ %ding parts of the 4hi ippines8 western sea)oard from the provin$es of 3 o$os Norte %p to 4a awan( China8s $ aim' however' has )een repeated * $a ed inva id and not in a$$ordan$e with UNCLOS' whi$h the 4hi ippines ratified in 198B and China in 199B( Maritime !eatures

7hat is the ITLOS8

+he 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Sea is the $o%rt $reated %nder UNCLOS to sett e disp%tes )etween states( +hese in$ %de matters regarding the interpretation or app i$ation of the Convention' and other iss%es that ma* )e s%)mitted to it for ad,%di$ation )* the parties( 3t a so has the power to iss%e advisor* opinions(

+he +ri)%na has 21 ,%dges from vario%s states and is )ased in Cam)%rg' 2erman*( +he UNCLOS states three different t*pes of maritime feat%res that a ow for the waters s%rro%nding a $o%ntr* to )e $ aimed as part of its territor*( +he first are !3s andsF defined as !a nat%ra * formed area of and' s%rro%nded )* water and a)ove water at high tide'F .arde e:a said( 3s ands' s%$h as L%:on' entit es the $o%ntr* that owns it to a 12 na%ti$a mi e (appro#imate * 22 /i ometers) territoria sea from the $oast ine with whi$h it has f% sovereignt*( 5 $o%ntr* $an e#$ %de foreign entities from its territoria sea( +he is and is a so entit ed to a 200 nm (appro#imate * >A0 /m) e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&)' whi$h gives the $o%ntr* the so e right to e#p oit the reso%r$es within it s%$h as fish and a so minera and oi reserves' if an*( +he se$ond are !ro$/s or reefsF that are most * )e ow water )%t have ro$/* protr%sions a)ove water d%ring high tide( +he important point %nder UNCLOS states that a maritime feat%re is a ro$/ if !it $annot s%stain h%man ha)itation or e$onomi$ ife on its own'F .arde e:a said( S%$h most * s%)merged feat%res are entit ed to on * a 12 nm territoria sea and no ""&( "#amp es of s%$h are <a,o de 1asin o$' a so /nown as 4anatag shoa or S$ar)oro%gh shoa ' whi$h ies 120 nm off the $oast of &am)a es provin$e( +he shoa is a s%)merged $ora reef with a ro$/* protr%sion that is three meters a)ove the water d%ring high tide( 3t $annot

9as the ITLOS reso ved an# "ase so !ar8

+o date' 19 $ases have )een s%)mitted to the +ri)%na ( +wo $ases are pending )efore the +ri)%na (

One of the $ases hand ed )* the 3+LOS was the $omp aint from New &ea and and 5%stra ia regarding .apan8s e#perimenta fishing program' whi$h the* said res% ted in the overfishing of < %efin +%na( 3+LOS provisiona * ordered the parties to /eep $at$hes to the eve the* had agreed on' and to refrain from $ond%$ting fishing programs( UNCLOS e#p ained= ;h* China8s $ aims in So%th China Sea are inva id <* 1ati/as Santos 3NZU-"-(net A=0A pm [ Drida*' De)r%ar* 28th' 201?

)e $ assified as an is and )e$a%se it $annot s%stain e$onomi$ a$tivit* or h%mans on its own' .arde e:a said( +he third t*pe of maritime feat%res $a ed ! ow tide e evationF are s%)merged ro$/s and reefs that are not visi) e a)ove water( +his t*pe of maritime feat%re is not entit ed to an* territoria sea or ""&( Contested Is and groups +here are two is and gro%ps' 4ara$e 3s ands and Sprat *s 3s ands' and one shoa ' S$ar)oro%gh' in So%th China Sea0;est 4hi ippine Sea that are the s%),e$t of maritime disp%tes )etween severa $o%ntries( +he 4ara$e 3s ands is disp%ted )* Eietnam and China on *( +he 4hi ippines has no interest in it )e$a%se it is far from the $o%ntr*8s ""&( S$ar)oro%gh shoa off the $oast of &am)a es ies within the 4hi ippines (""&) )%t has )een e#$ %sive * %nder the $ontro of the Chinese sin$e the 2012 standoff( +he most $ontroversia is the Sprat * 2ro%p of 3s ands that is $ aimed )* China' 4hi ippines' Eietnam' 1a a*sia' <r%nei and +aiwan( Sprat * 3s ands is $omposed of more than 1?0 maritime feat%res of whi$h on * ?0 are a)ove water some of the time Mand of that ?0N on * 20 are a)ove water at high tide' a$$ording to.arde e:a( !+he $ aim of the 4hi ippines in the ar)itration is that none of the feat%res o$$%pied or $ontro ed )* China is entit ed to a 200 nm ""&'F he said( !Uo% don8t have to )e a ro$/et s$ientist' the Mnine7dash ineN $ aim vio ates UNCLOS( +he most that China $an $ aim sho% d on * )e 200 nm o%tside of Cainan'F .arde e:a said( 2ight !eatures under protest +he $ase s%)mitted )* the 4hi ippines to the 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Sea (3+LOS) $on$erns eight maritime feat%res that are $%rrent * %nder the $ontro of China( +he first fo%r are ow tide e evations that are $omp ete * s%)merged= 1is$hief -eef' whi$h is 1>0 nm from 4a awan' Oennan -eef (180 nm)' 2aven -eef (206 nm) and S%)i -eef (2>0nm)( !+hese are a )e ow water at high tide( +he*8re not entit ed to an*thing( No territoria sea' no ""&( <%t a of these fo%r are ph*si$a * o$$%pied )* China'F .arde e:a said( China has $onstr%$ted $on$rete str%$t%res on the reefs in$ %ding he i$opter anding pads over the *ears sin$e 1996 )%t that does not give them entit ements to the seas aro%nd it( +he other fo%r are ro$/s or reefs that are' at most' entit ed to on * 12 nm( +hese are S$ar)oro%gh shoa ' 120 nm from L%:on' .ohnson reef 180 (nm from 4a awan)' C%arteron reef (2?0nm from 4a awan) and Dier* Cross reef (266 nm from 4a awan)(

!+he position of the 4hi ippines is MChinaJsN nine7dash ine is inva id( 3t vio ates UNCLOS( +he fo%r reefs that are )e ow water a the time are entit ed to no rights and the fo%r are ro$/s whi$h wo% d on * have 12 na%ti$a mi es'F .arde e:a said(

T92 SOUT9 C9INA S2A -IS+UT2S: <ORMULA <OR A +ARA-I=M S9I<T8 ; ANAL:SIS D"<-U5-U 19' 201? L"5E" 5 CO11"N+ China $o% d trigger a paradigm shift in the disp%tes in the So%th China Sea if it were to iss%e $harts indi$ating the o%ter imit of its e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&) $ aims from the is ands over whi$h it $ aims sovereignt*( 5 f% effe$t Se9%idistan$e ine8 from the argest is ands towards the s%rro%nding $oasts wo% d $reate a arge area of over ap )etween the ""& $ aims of the 5S"5N $ aimants and the ""& $ aim of China from the disp%ted is ands( +his $o% d ead to possi) e provisiona arrangements of a pra$ti$a nat%re' in$ %ding ,oint deve opment :ones' in the areas of over apping $ aims( <* -o)ert C <e$/man and C ive C S$hofie d C5LLS ON China to $ arif* its maritime $ aims in the So%th China Sea have )een reopened fo owing the testimon* on 6 De)r%ar* 201? )* US 5ssistant Se$retar* of State for the 5sia7 4a$ifi$ Danie -%sse ' )efore the Co%se Committee on Doreign 5ffairs' S%)$ommittee on 5sia and the 4a$ifi$( 1r -%sse stated that the United States ta/es a strong position that maritime $ aims m%st a$$ord with $%stomar* internationa aw' and that this means a maritime $ aims m%st )e derived from and feat%res and otherwise $omport with the internationa aw of the sea( Ce f%rther stated that $ aims in the So%th China Sea that are not derived from and feat%res' s%$h as those apparent * )ased on China8s so7$a ed nine7dash ine' are f%ndamenta * f awed( Ce $a ed %pon China to $ arif* or ad,%st its maritime $ aims so as to )ring them into a$$ordan$e with the internationa aw of the sea( Bringing Chinas claim under international la 1r -%sse 8s testimon* raises a f%ndamenta 9%estion that has ong )een at the heart of the ega disp%tes in the So%th China Sea( Can China )ring its maritime $ aims into $onformit* with the internationa aw and sti prote$t its egitimate interests in the So%th China SeaX ;e )e ieve that it $an' and that it wo% d )e in China8s interests to do so' not east )e$a%se this $o% d open the door to serio%s dis$%ssions on ,oint deve opment in areas of over apping maritime $ aims( +o )egin with' China $o% d trigger a paradigm shift in the disp%tes in the So%th China Sea if it were to iss%e $harts indi$ating the o%ter imit of its e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&) $ aims from the is ands over whi$h it $ aims sovereignt*( China $o% d imit its ""& $ aim to ,%st the 12 argest is ands in the Sprat *s( 5 tho%gh the tota and area of these is ands is on * a)o%t two s9%are /i ometres' the* a have vegetation and in some $ases roads and str%$t%res have )een )%i t on them( +herefore' it $an )e arg%ed in good faith that the* are !is andsF entit ed in prin$ip e to ""& and $ontinenta she f rights of their

own %nder the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)' and are not !ro$/s whi$h $annot s%stain h%man ha)itation or e$onomi$ ife of their ownF that are on * entit ed to a 12 nm territoria sea( +he same ogi$ $an )e app ied to the argest feat%res among the 4ara$e 3s ands gro%p' together with the 4ratas 3s ands( C aiming on * the arger is ands wi not imit China8s maritime rea$h signifi$ant *' )%t it wo% d )ring these $ aims more in ine with internationa aw( ;hi e it ma* appear that %sing on * the arger disp%ted is ands to generate its ""& $ aim wo% d entai a S oss8 of potentia maritime areas to China' a$t%a * the impa$t wo% d )e minima )e$a%se of the wa* in whi$h the is ands are gro%ped in $ ose pro#imit* to ea$h other' a owing a )road sweep of ""& $ aims( +he is ands in 9%estion $o% d )e given f% effe$t G the f% 200 na%ti$a mi e ""& imits G in the dire$tion of the open sea in the $entra part of the So%th China Sea( 3n the dire$tion of the main and $oast or main ar$hipe ago of the 5S"5N $ aimants' China $o% d imit its ""& $ aim from the se e$ted is ands to the theoreti$a Se9%idistan$e ine8 )etween the is ands and main and $oast or main ar$hipe ago( +his is the mid7point in the waters from the is ands $ aimed )* China to the and )e onging to the other $ aimant states( !d"antages to China and !#$!N claimants 4ast internationa pra$ti$e s%ggests that the e9%idistan$e ine is a most a wa*s the starting point in de imiting the )o%ndar* )etween offshore is ands and main and territor*( +herefore' an ""& $ aim e#tending from the is ands to the e9%idistan$e ine wo% d arg%a) * )e a good faith $ aim $omporting with UNCLOS( <%t is sti i/e * to )e $ontested )* other $ aimants' in /eeping with their own $ aims to sovereignt* over disp%ted is ands( +he* ma* a so arg%e that s%$h a f% effe$t e9%idistan$e ine wo% d )e ine9%ita) e and in$onsistent with the red%$ed effe$t genera * given to sma offshore is ands )* internationa $o%rts and tri)%na s( 5s i %strated in the atta$hed map' a f% effe$t e9%idistan$e ine from the argest is ands towards the s%rro%nding $oasts wo% d $reate a arge area of over apping $ aims in the midd e of the So%th China Sea' with on * a sma !high seas po$/etF )e*ond the imits of an* ""& $ aims( +his notwithstanding' the ma,or advantage to China in ma/ing s%$h a $ aim is that its a$tions wo% d )e $onsistent with UNCLOS and it $o% d no onger )e $riti$ised as a$ting o%tside of internationa aw( 3n addition' it wo% d $reate an area of over apping ""& $ aims in whi$h the States $on$erned wo% d )e %nder a ega o) igation to ma/e ever* effort to enter into Sprovisiona arrangements of a pra$ti$a nat%re8 s%$h as ,oint deve opment arrangements( D%rther' the States $on$erned wo% d )e %nder an o) igation p%rs%ant to UNCLOS not to ta/e an* %ni atera a$tions in the areas of over apping $ aims that wo% d ,eopardise or hamper the rea$hing of a fina agreement on the maritime )o%ndaries( 5 so' if China fo owed this $o%rse of a$tion it wo% d not )e s%),e$t to the $omp% sor* pro$ed%res entai ing )inding de$isions in se$tion 2 of 4art KE of UNCLOS on the sett ement of disp%tes( +his is )e$a%se China has e#er$ised its right to ma/e a de$ aration e#$ %ding disp%tes on the provisions on maritime )o%ndaries from s%$h pro$ed%res(

3f China were to e#er$ise this option it wo% d )enefit the 5S"5N $ aimants )e$a%se it wo% d $ arif* whi$h areas in the So%th China Sea are not areas of over apping $ aims( +he areas )etween the e9%idistan$e ine and the main and $oasts or main ar$hipe ago of the 5S"5N States wo% d )e within the ""& of the 5S"5N States where the* have sovereign rights to e#p ore and e#p oit the fisheries and h*dro$ar)on reso%r$es( +his wo% d mean that the maritime spa$es )etween the e9%idistan$e ine and the nine7dash ine wo% d not )e $ aimed )* China( +his is the nat%ra $onse9%en$e of China re$ognising that %nder internationa aw maritime $ aims m%st )e derived from and feat%res( %estoring trust and mo"ing to ards coo&eration +he $ aimant States $o% d ,%stif* an* move towards ,oint deve opment in the area of over apping $ aims to their domesti$ $onstit%ents )* pointing o%t that s%$h over apping $ aims are )ased on UNCLOS' that an* provisiona arrangements are Switho%t pre,%di$e8 to their sovereignt* $ aims to the is ands as we as )eing witho%t pre,%di$e to an* fina agreement on maritime )o%ndaries( 3n s%mmar*' if China were to $ arif* the e#tent of its ""& $ aims as des$ri)ed a)ove it wo% d send a $ ear signa to the internationa $omm%nit* that it is wi ing to p%rs%e its interests in a$$ordan$e with the r% es of internationa aw( +his wo% d he p restore tr%st and $onfiden$e in the region( 3t $o% d a so trigger serio%s dis$%ssions and negotiations aimed at rea$hing a $onsens%s on areas of over apping $ aims defined in a$$ordan$e with the provisions of UNCLOS and on provisiona arrangements of a pra$ti$a nat%re' in$ %ding ,oint deve opment arrangements' in these areas of over apping $ aims( China.s >&dash ine ,3ea0ens. and " aims +he 2reat ;a was ere$ted )* Chinese emperors to /eep the !)ar)ariansF o%t' meaning ever*)od* )%t them( +hat mind7set of )eing a %ni9%e ra$e had remained with their po iti$a eaders' s/et$hing the 97dash ine' the 21st $ent%r* e9%iva ent of the wa ' to en$ompass the who e of the So%th China Sea (;est 4hi ippine Sea)( <%t %n i/e the 2reat ;a of China that meas%res 8'860 /i ometers (6'600 mi es)' the 97dash ine was drawn apparent * on a whim' witho%t an* referen$e points or $oordinates( +hat' a$$ording to e#perts' is one of the wea/est in/s in the Chinese $ aim to territories in the So%th China Sea and wo% d not pass m%ster )efore the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Un$ os)( +he $onvention defines the rights and responsi)i ities of nations in their %se of the wor d8s o$eans' esta) ishing g%ide ines for $ommer$e' the environment and the management of marine nat%ra reso%r$es( +he Chinese /now their 97dash ine rests on sha/* gro%nds( +he* vehement * re,e$t the 4hi ippine $ha enge to )ring their $ aim )efore an internationa )od* i/e the United Nations or the 5sso$iation of So%theast 5sian Nations (5sean)( +he* wo% d i/e a %ni atera approa$h' ta /ing individ%a * to

$ aimants to the is ands in the So%th China Sea' /nowing the wea/nesses of ea$h individ%a state( +he So%th China Sea is defined as !a margina seaF that is part of the 4a$ifi$ O$ean' en$ompassing an area from Singapore and 1a a$$a Straits to the Strait of +aiwan of aro%nd >'600'000 s9 /m (1'?00'000 s9 mi' a$$ording to ;i/ipedia( +he area8s importan$e arge * res% ts from one7third of the wor d8s shipping transiting thro%gh its waters' and that it is )e ieved to ho d h%ge oi and gas reserves )eneath its sea)ed( 3t is so%th of main and China and the is and of +aiwan' west of the 4hi ippines' northwest of Sa)ah (1a a*sia)' Sarawa/ (1a a*sia) and <r%nei' north of 3ndonesia' north east of the 1a a* penins% a (1a a*sia) and Singapore' and east of Eietnam( China $ aims pra$ti$a * the who e So%th China Sea' whi e si# other $o%ntriesYthe 4hi ippines' Eietnam' <r%nei Dar%ssa am' 3ndonesia' +aiwan and 1a a*siaY$ aiming parts of the sea' in$ %ding is ands' ato s' shoa s and reefs( +he disp%tes stret$h to the maritime )o%ndar* in the 2% f of +on/in as we as maritime )o%ndaries off the $oasts of Eietnam' 1a a*sia' <r%nei Dar%ssa am and the 4hi ippines( +here is a f%rther disp%te in the waters near 3ndonesia8s Nat%na 3s ands( 5dditiona *' there are disp%tes among the vario%s is and $hains of the So%th China Sea )asin' in$ %ding the Sprat * 3s ands and the 4ara$e 3s ands( +he vario%s $ aimants wanted a pie$e of the a$tion' s%$h as fishing rights and a$$ess to marine reso%r$e' potentia e#p oitation of s%spe$ted h*dro$ar)ons %nder the sea)ed and strategi$ $ontro of $r%$ia shipping anes( 3n a re$ent $ommentar*' the !5%stra ianF said that offi$ia s in <ei,ing and state media ,%stif* China8s $ aim to the territories in the So%th China Sea )* pointing to !amp e histori$a fa$ts and eviden$eF a)o%t the area' whi e remaining am)ig%o%s on what these are( +he arti$ e said the $ aim was form% ated in 19?A )* the then7 Nationa ist government in a map with a nine7se$tion' U7shaped demar$ation en$ompassing the 4ara$e 3s ands east of Eietnam' the Sprat * 3s ands west of the 4hi ippines and other %ninha)ited feat%res' s%$h as the S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ( 3t is )e ieved to )e the first time that the !nine7dash ineF was printed on an offi$ia Chinese map( +en a$ademi$s in China and +aiwan were as/ed to provide !a ega e#p anation of the U7shape ineF within a *ear' <ei,ing8s state media have reported( China hopes that an$ient maps and histori$a re$ords wo% d set the re$ord straight' )%t their attempts to $onvin$e its si# riva s thro%gh a$ademi$ resear$h ma* prove fr%it ess' a$$ording to e#perts( !China8s $ aims are ver* d%)io%s )e$a%se *o% $an ma/e o d maps sa* what *o% want them to sa*'F said .ean74ierre Ca)estan' head of the department of 2overnment and 3nternationa St%dies at Cong Oong <aptist Universit*( Ce was 9%oted )* foreign news agen$ies as having said China8s on * $ontro of an* of the is ands $ame via maritime s/irmishes over

the past ?0 *ears( 3n 19A? d%ring a nava )att e with Eietnam' China too/ over the 4ara$e s and in 1988 some of the Sprat *s after the .ohnson So%th -eef S/irmish' whi$h res% ted in A0 Eietnamese deaths( <ei,ing a so gained $ontro of the 1is$hief -eef in the Sprat *s in mid7199?' when it )%i t str%$t%res on the is and that it $ aimed were for its fishermen( Despite vehement protest' 1ani a )a$/ed down over the 1is$hief -eef (4hi ippine maps name it 4angani)an -eef)' )%t was more assertive ear ier this *ear when the 4hi ippine Nav* and the 4hi ippine Coast 2%ard had an e#tended standoff with Chinese patro vesse s at S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ' whi$h 4hi ippine maps have shown as either <a,o de 1asin o$ or 4anatag Shoa ( +his shoa is we within the 4hi ippines8s 2007na%ti$a 7mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one( &hang Caiwen' dep%t* dire$tor of the China 3nstit%te for 1arine 5ffairs' re$ent * to d the state media that distan$e has !a)so %te * no )asis in internationa aw and ,%di$ia pra$ti$eFY %sing <ritain8s Channe 3s ands' ess than 12 na%ti$a mi es from the Dren$h $oast' as an e#amp e( .ia Zingg%o' professor at 4e/ing Universit*8s S$hoo of 3nternationa St%dies' said China was mere * fo owing an e#amp e set )* the ;est( !+he United States has 2%am in 5sia' whi$h is ver* far awa* from the US' and the Dren$h have is ands in the So%th 4a$ifi$' so it is nothing new'F adding' !the geographi$a o$ation of the is and does not ne$essari * indi$ate to whi$h $o%ntr* it )e ongs(F Zingg%o is wa* )ehind the time( ;hat he pointed o%t o$$%red d%ring the time of $o oni:ation' when the might* and high * te$hno ogi$a * advan$ed $o%ntries too/ advantage of the wea/' when !might is rightF governed most po i$ies( +oda*' we have the United Nations to sett e disp%tes( 5nd China is a prominent mem)er of the UN( 5nd the rea it* of the present was e#pressed )* Doreign Se$retar* 5 )ert de -osario' who to d the f%t%re mi itar* top )rass at the 4hi ippine 1i itar* 5$adem* in <ag%io Cit* to !stand %p to prote$t what is o%rs(F Ce said the $o%ntr* in$ %des parts of the Sprat * is and $hain in the So%th China Sea Mof whi$h the 2007na%ti$a 7mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one was renamed ;est 4hi ippine SeaN' as we as the S$ar)oro%gh Shoa ( !;e have a $ ear mandate from M4resident 59%inoN( ;hat is o%rs is o%rs' and we sho% d stand %p to prote$t what is o%rs'F said de -osario( !Live %p to *o%r iving $ommitment of $o%rage' integrit* and o*a t*( <* doing so' rather than )eing for$ed to a$$ept that might is right' we wi instead demonstrate that right is might'F he added(

1eanwhi e' "dward N( L%ttwa/8s )oo/' +he -ise of China vs +he Logi$ of Strateg*' sa*s Chinese po i$ies in 5sia ris/ e$onomi$ reta iation )* other $o%ntries( L%ttwa/' a senior asso$iate at the Center for Strategi$ and 3nternationa St%dies disp%ted $ aims that given US po i$ies' China $an a$$omp ish the !pea$ef% riseF its eaders promised( Ce said that sin$e the 2008 re$ession' <ei,ing8s internationa po i$ies have hardened )e$a%se it sees the US as in de$ ine( "#amp es of what he $a ed !premat%re assertivenessF are ever*where' from China8s trade po i$ies to its )% *ing of Eietnam' .apan and the 4hi ippines over disp%ted is ands( Ce said <ei,ing8s $ aim to the entire So%th China Sea was !an o%trageo%s power gra)(F L%ttwa/ added that this rapid e$onomi$ and mi itar* growth and g o)a inf %en$e are in$ompati) e )e$a%se the* are )o%nd to provo/e resistan$e( 5 read* China8s neigh)ors are see/ing new forms of $o e$tive se$%rit* designed to $ontain her( Eietnam and the 4hi ippines have )eg%n deve oping $ oser ties with the US( Ce a so $a ed China8s move !a%tisti$F for <ei,ing8s insensitivit* and over)earing st* e( L%ttwa/ said whi e other $o%ntries $an s%ffer from the same disease' China8s position as the wor d8s most pop% o%s nation and iso ated histori$a deve opment ma/e her espe$ia * prone to the i ness( Ce added that he does not see war as so %tion' sa*ing that a China that grows at an*thing i/e $%rrent rates wo% d not have to )e aggressive to impose its wi ( L%ttwa/' however' warned the US against over7 re ian$e on mi itar* $o%ntermeas%res' whi$h $o% d f%rther stim% ate China8s growth and defense spending( China8s s%pposed mista/e is that its %ni atera moves had provo/ed its greatest riva ' the United States' whi$h $onsiders the China Sea as an e#tension of the 4a$ifi$ O$ean' to respond to a potentia threat( Late *' it was anno%n$ed that the atest warships and other high7te$h weapons are )eing dep o*ed to the 5sia 4a$ifi$ as part of ;ashington8s strategi$ shift to the region( !+he 4entagon wi send 478 s%)marine7h%nting air$raft' $r%ise missi es' Eirginia7$ ass s%)marines' $oasta $om)at ships and D7>6 fighter ,ets to 5sian ports and )ases in $oming *ears' an %nnamed senior offi$ia to d reporters' sa*ing that the 4a$ifi$ theater wi get the newest weapons s*stems first( +his 5sian !pivotF )* the 4entagon $ame after de$ades of gro%nd wars in 3ra9 and 5fghanistan' ref e$ting $on$ern over China8s growing mi itar* power and its assertive stan$e in territoria disp%tes with its neigh)ors( !+he United States a read* p ans to dep o* more than ha f of its f eet to the 5sia 4a$ifi$ and to station fo%r ittora $om)at ships Yspeed* new vesse s designed to operate near $oast inesY for rotationa dep o*ments in Singapore'F newspaper reports said( +he reports added that Defense Se$retar* Leon 4anetta revea ed that the stea th* D7>6 .oint Stri/e Dighter' whi$h is sti

in deve opment' $o% d )e dep o*ed to the 3wa/%ni air station in .apan8s Uamag%$hi prefe$t%re )* 201A' whi e a so providing .apan with another powerf% K7)and radar to )o ster its missi e defenses' a move anno%n$ed in Septem)er( 5meri$a8s mi itar* was triggered )* deep $on$ern over <ei,ing8s re$ent a$tions in the So%th China Sea' referring to to%gh new maritime r% es from China8s Cainan provin$e' a $ontroversia map in new Chinese passports and a egations that Chinese fishing )oats $%t the seismi$ $a) es of a Eietnamese geo ogi$a s%rve* vesse ' other news reports said( -e$ent *' Cainan provin$e adopted new po i$*' a owing o$a po i$e to )oard and e#pe foreign ships entering waters it $onsiders %nder Chinese ,%risdi$tion( <ei,ing inf%riated its neigh)ors )* iss%ing new passports in$orporating the 97dash ine map( +wo $o%ntries' Eietnam and the 4hi ippines' $o%ntered )* not honoring the passports' stamping immigration re$ords on a separate pie$e of paper instead( UNCLOS a o3s passage o! Chinese ship? (ut no mar0ers @ A<+

5rmed Dor$es of the 4hi ippines (5D4) spo/esman Commodore 1ig%e .ose -odrig%e: said on S%nda* that the 4hi ippine Nav* wi not inter$ept the Chinese patro ship dep o*ed to the ;est 4hi ippine Sea ast ;ednesda*' )%t it wi not )e a owed to p a$e mar/ers in the e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one of the 4hi ippines to $omp * with 1992 UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS)(

!5n*)od* $an pass thro%gh Mthe 4hi ippines8N e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&)' thro%gh the right of inno$ent passage( 5gain' that is Ma owed %nder theN UNCLOS( +hese are these are internationa waters )%t *o% do not have the right to e#p ore and e#p oit )e$a%se this right is an e#$ %sive right of the $oast state'L he said(

China' has re$ent * made aggressive moves in the ;est 4hi ippine Sea (a so /nown as the So%th China Sea)' parti$% ar * in the oi and minera ri$h Sprat * 3s ands( 5 or some of the is ands are )eing $ aimed )* the 4hi ippines' China' +aiwan' Eietnam' 1a a*sia and <r%nei(

Last wee/' the 4hi ippines removed mar/ers p%t )* China in

the %no$$%pied 5m* Do%g as <an/ and <o#ha -eef' in $ontravention of the 2002 De$ aration of Cond%$t in the So%th China Sea( +he two areas are we within the 4hi ippines8 2007 mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one provided %nder UNCLOS(

$onventions the* have a$$eded to(

!3f *o% have ratified UNCLOS and *o% are signator* to that' what8s the %se of signing that if *o%8re not going to respe$t that'L he said(

!"ven in o%r territoria waters' an* ship has the right to enter o%r territoria waters for the p%rpose of inno$ent passage' provided it is e#peditio%s and dire$t'L -odri9%e: e#p ained( !No)od* wi vio ate an*thing if the* pass )* o%r e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one )e$a%se o%r right %nder the e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one is to e#p ore and e#p oit the nat%ra reso%r$es there(L !;e Mthe 4hi ippinesN have signed the UNCLOS' whi$h provides the framewor/ )* whi$h we treat $ertain territories or +he UNCLOS provides that a $oasta state has a 2007na%ti$a mi e ""& from its shores or )ase ines( +he Sprat*s are we o%tside China8s ""& a tho%gh are $ ear * within the ""& of the 4hi ippines( $ertain areas( Dor e#amp e' the territoria sea and then the e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and we have a agreed to that' a the $ aimant $o%ntries in the Sprat *s have agreed to UNCLOS'L he e#p ained( !+his is an agreement whi$h a se f respe$ting nation sho% d $omp * with( 3f *o% are a part* to the agreement' if *o% are a se f7respe$ting nation' *o% sho% d $omp *' witho%t mentioning an* $o%ntr* at a 'L he added(

<%t it wo% d )e different stor*' he stressed' if the ships wo% d a* $ aim on the disp%ted is ands or e#p oit the 4hi ippines8 ""&( !;hen the* stop and do resear$h and p%t %p mar/ers' then that is a$t%a * a vio ation of o%r e#$ %sive right' that8s wh* we $a it e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one'L he said(

!5n e*e for an e*e ma/es the wor d go ) ind'L he added' 9%oting from the ate 3ndian eader 1ahatma 2andhi(

!;e are not doing that' there is an internationa for%m' and there is a $onvention we have a agreed( ;e sho% d ma/e %se of that and this is the UNCLOS'L -odrig%e: said(

!3f there is another part* other than the $oasta state who wi do that' then that is a vio ation of UNCLOS' %n ess the* as/ permission from the $oasta state whi$h in this $ase is the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines'L he added( !+hat MUNCLOSN ma/es %s a e9%a as sovereign nations( 3t Signator# states to the UNCLOS doesn8t matter whether *o%r and area is )ig or sma ' *o% have )igger pop% ation( Uo% are $o%nted as one and *o% are -odrig%e:' however' we $omed the de$ision of si# 5S"5N $o%ntries Y Eietnam' 3ndonesia' 1a a*sia' +hai and' Laos and Singapore Y in ,oining the $ amor of the 4hi ippine government to pea$ef% * reso ve the disp%te over the Sprat *s( +his $onsens%s was rea$hed d%ring the re$ent 21st 1eeting of State 4arties of the UNCLOS he d in New Uor/( respe$ted as a sovereign state'L he said( !3f we signed MandN )e$ame a part* to an agreement i/e the UNCLOS' then we sho% d a$t%a * reso ve $ertain $on$erns within the framewor/ of UNCLOS(L Phili&&ines' China' (NCL)# and the #outh China #eas 5pri 1Ath' 2012 5 en Leave a $omment 2o to $omments -e$ent *' we hear a growing $hor%s how the China G 4hi ippines disp%te in the So%th China Seas o%ght to )e sett ed )* )inding ar)itration %nder the United Nations Convention on !Drom the 5D4 side' we )e ieve that it MUNCLOSN is rea * the wa* to go( +here has to )e r% es'L the mi itar* spo/esman said(

-odrig%e: noted that China is signator* to the UNCLOS' adding that ever* signator*7state m%st respe$t the internationa

the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)( 1 ;e a read* have dea t with some of the po iti$a dimensions of this (see' e(g(' o%r So%th China Seas tag)' and 3 won8t rehash them here( <%t 3 do want to )ring %p a $o%p e of points that seem ost in the $%rrent fra*( ;hi e UNCLOS does a ow nations to $ aim "#$ %sive e$onomi$ :ones (""&s) that e#tend 200 na%ti$a mi es o%t from a nation8s territoria sea' the UNCLOS is not the )asis of the disp%te )etween China and the 4hi ippines( One wa* to view the disp%te is as a disp%te over maritime )o%ndar*( Sin$e the So%th China Seas is pop% ated with h%ndreds of is ands and ro$/s' the 9%estion is how to disentang e the over apping $ aims to the seas arising from the vario%s $ aims to the is ands( +his wo% d $ ear * )e a disp%te invo ving UNCLOS( +he pro) em with this ana *sis is that China and the 4hi ippines do not even agree over whi$h is ands and0or ro$/s )e ong to whom( +he UNCLOS might )e the appropriate for%m to assess e#tent of vario%s $ aims over the seas when there e#ists $ ear * de ineated and a$$epted $ aims to and territories' )%t when it $omes to disp%tes over a$t%a $ aims over and (is ands or ro$/s)' there is itt e that the UNCLOS provides( 5nother pro) em with appea ing to the UNCLOS is that the the UNCLOS is rea * a red herring' as far as the So%th China Seas and China and the 4hi ippines are $on$erned( Under 3nternationa Law' nations genera * have the right to ratif* treaties in parts G )* ratif*ing treaties with reservations( +his is the $ase with UNCLOS( Neither China nor the 4hi ippines ratified the UNCLOS in f% ( 3n fa$t' few of nations that ratified the UNCLOS did so witho%t some sorts of 9%a if*ing statements or de$ arations (see UNCLOS de $arations and statements %pon ratifi$ation)( +he 4hi ippines ratified the UNCLOS %nder these terms= Understanding made %pon signat%re (10 De$em)er 1982) and $onfirmed %pon ratifi$ation (8 1a* 198?) 80 90 1( +he signing of the Convention )* the 2overnment of the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines sha not in an* manner impair or pre,%di$e the sovereign rights of the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines %nder and arising from the Constit%tion of the 4hi ippines( 2( S%$h signing sha not in an* manner affe$t the sovereign rights of the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines as s%$$essor of the United States of 5meri$a' %nder and arising o%t of the +reat* of 4aris )etween Spain and the United States of 5meri$a of 10 De$em)er 1898' and the +reat* of ;ashington )etween the United States of 5meri$a and 2reat <ritain of 2 .an%ar* 19>0( >( S%$h signing sha not diminish or in an* manner affe$t the rights and o) igations of the $ontra$ting parties %nder the 1%t%a Defen$e +reat* )etween the 4hi ippines and the United States of 5meri$a of >0 5%g%st 1961 and its re ated interpretative instr%ments@ nor those %nder an* other pertinent )i atera or m% ti atera treat* or agreement to whi$h the 4hi ippines is a part*( A% Su"h signing sha not in an# manner impair or pre)udi"e the sovereignt# o! the Repu( i" o! the

+hi ippines over an# territor# over 3hi"h it exer"ises sovereign authorit#? su"h as the Ba a#aan Is ands? and the 3aters appurtenant thereto% 6( +he Convention sha not )e $onstr%ed as amending in an* manner an* pertinent aws and 4residentia De$rees or 4ro$ amation of the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines@ the 2overnment of the -ep%) i$ of the 4hi ippines maintains and reserves the right and a%thorit* to ma/e an* amendments to s%$h aws' de$rees or pro$ amations p%rs%ant to the provisions of the 4hi ippines Constit%tion( C% The provisions o! the Convention on ar"hipe agi" passage through sea anes do not nu i!# or impair the sovereignt# o! the +hi ippines as an ar"hipe agi" State over the sea anes and do not deprive it o! authorit# to ena"t egis ation to prote"t its sovereignt#? independen"e and se"urit#% A( +he $on$ept of ar$hipe agi$ waters is simi ar to the $on$ept of interna waters %nder the Constit%tion of the 4hi ippines' and removes straits $onne$ting these waters with the e$onomi$ :one or high sea from the rights of foreign vesse s to transit passage for internationa navigation( D% The agreement o! the Repu( i" o! the +hi ippines to the su(mission !or pea"e!u reso ution? under an# o! the pro"edures provided in the Convention? o! disputes under arti" e '>D sha not (e "onsidered as a derogation o! +hi ippines sovereignt#% 3n other words' 4hi ippines s%)s$ri)es to the UNCLOS to the e#tent it does not impair 4hi ippine $ aim to sovereignt* in the So%th China Sea( China ratified the UNCLOS %nder these terms= Upon ratifi$ation (A .%ne 199B)10= 3n a$$ordan$e with the de$ision of the Standing Committee of the "ighth Nationa 4eop e8s Congress of the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China at its nineteenth session' the 4resident of the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China has here)* ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 De$em)er 1982 and at the same time made the fo owing statement= 1( 3n a$$ordan$e with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea' the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China sha en,o* sovereign rights and ,%risdi$tion over an e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one of 200 na%ti$a mi es and the $ontinenta she f( '% The +eop e.s Repu( i" o! China 3i e!!e"t? through "onsu tations? the de imitation o! the (oundar# o! the maritime )urisdi"tion 3ith the States 3ith "oasts opposite or ad)a"ent to China respe"tive # on the (asis o! internationa a3 and in a""ordan"e 3ith the prin"ip e o! e5uita(i it#% *% The +eop e.s Repu( i" o! China rea!!irms its sovereignt# over a its ar"hipe agos and is ands as isted in arti" e ' o! the La3 o! the +eop e.s Repu( i" o! China on the territoria sea and the "ontiguous Eone? 3hi"h 3as promu gated on 'F <e(ruar# $>>'%

?( +he 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China reaffirms that the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea $on$erning inno$ent passage thro%gh the territoria sea sha not pre,%di$e the right of a $oasta State to re9%est' in a$$ordan$e with its aws and reg% ations' a foreign State to o)tain advan$e approva from or give prior notifi$ation to the $oasta State for the passage of its warships thro%gh the territoria sea of the $oasta State( De$ aration made after ratifi$ation (26 5%g%st 200B) -e" aration under arti" e '>D: The =overnment o! the +eop e.s Repu( i" o! China does not a""ept an# o! the pro"edures provided !or in Se"tion ' o! +art GH o! the Convention 3ith respe"t to a the "ategories o! disputes re!erred to in paragraph $ 4a6 4(6 and 4"6 o! Arti" e '>D o! the Convention% +h%s China ratifies the UNCLOS to the e#tent it does not impinge %pon its sovereign $ aims to a the is ands and regions of So%th China Seas( 5 so whi e China wi negotiate with a neigh)ors with whi$h it has territoria disp%tes on gro%nds of e9%it* and respe$t' it does not s%)mit to 5rti$ e 298 ar)itration as provided %nder the UNCLOS( 5rti$ e 2 of the Law of the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China on the territoria sea and the $ontig%o%s :one $ aims %nder Chinese sovereignt* a territoria and and seas where= +he 4-C8s territoria sea refers to the waters ad,a$ent to its territoria and( +he 4-C8s territoria and in$ %des the main and and its offshore is ands' +aiwan and the vario%s affi iated is ands in$ %ding Diao*% 3s and' 4engh% 3s ands' Dongsha 3s ands' Kisha 3s ands' Nansha (Sprat *) 3s ands and other is ands that )e ong to the 4eop e8s -ep%) i$ of China( 2iven the a)ove' it is 9%ite f%nn* that the 4hi ippines has referred its disp%te with China to the 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Sea( Lega *' the disp%tes do not $ome %nder the UNCLOS G from either the 4hi ippines or Chinese side( 4hi ippines $an8t ma/e a ong a%ndr* ist of reservations to prote$t its sta/es and *et want to have its $a/e too )* tr*ing to )ind China )* imagined aws\ +his is a po iti$a iss%e that deserves a dip omati$ so %tion( China $ aims So%th China Seas )ased on histor*( 3t8s ironi$ to see toda* 4hi ippines !hostingF Dren$h ar$heo ogists to st%d* s%n/en $hinese ships in its a eged territoria waters( 2 3 hope the 4hi ippine side wi %nderstand the depth of Chinese $ aims and $ome to the ta) e with a more sin$ere spirit' instead of p a*ing ega games and tr*ing to distra$t from the rea wor/ that needs to )e done( 3nter5/s*on($om +he on ine news porta of +E6 4CNO1 4"NC 7 So%theast 5sian states want a UN maritime $onvention to )e the )asis for sett ing $ompeting $ aims in the So%th China Sea' a draft do$%ment agreed )* foreign ministers showed on +%esda*(

+he position of the 5sso$iation of So%theast 5sian Nations (5S"5N) is i/e * to meet resistan$e from China' however' whi$h favors sett ing maritime disp%tes in the regiona hotspot )i atera *( So%theast 5sian foreign ministers are meeting in Cam)odia to draw %p a ong7de a*ed $ode of $ond%$t to )e signed )* them and China aimed at easing fri$tion in the So%th China Sea( +he draft do$%ment o%t ining 5S"5NJs position' whi$h was seen )* 5D4' $a ed on a sides to L%nderta/e to reso ve territoria ((( disp%tes in the (So%th China Sea) )* pea$ef% means in a$$ordan$e with internationa aw' in$ %ding UNCLOSL( UNCLOS is the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea' an internationa treat* that sets imits on how m%$h of neigh)o%ring seas a nation $an $onsider as their territoria waters or e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one( China is a signator* to UNCLOS' )%t e#perts sa* its $ aim of essentia * a of the So%th China Sea' home to vita shipping anes and )e ieved to )e ri$h in oi and gas deposits' wo% d fai %nder its provisions( +aiwan and 5S"5N mem)ers the 4hi ippines' Eietnam' <r%nei and 1a a*sia a ma/e riva $ aims on areas of the sea' where tensions re$ent * mo%nted( +he draft 5S"5N do$%ment $a s on a parties to reso ve disp%tes Lwitho%t resorting to the %se of for$e or the threat to %se for$eL and to L$ommit to respe$t freedom of navigation and overf ightsL( 5S"5N is proposing that a sides attempt to sett e disp%tes first within the framewor/ of the +reat* of 5mit* and Cooperation' an 5S"5N7$entred pa$t that a so )ans the %se of for$e to sett e disp%tes( Dai ing that' parties ma* resort to the Ldisp%te7sett ement me$hanism provided in internationa aw in$ %ding UNCLOSL' a$$ording to the draft' whi$h a so $a s for $ooperative a$tivities to )%i d tr%st and $onfiden$e( China on 1onda* said it was wi ing to dis$%ss the $ode with 5S"5N Lwhen $onditions are ripeL )%t insisted that an* potentia pa$t m%st not )e %sed to reso ve riva $ aims( L+he ($ode of $ond%$t) is not aimed at reso ving disp%tes' )%t aimed at )%i ding m%t%a tr%st and deepening $ooperation'L ChinaJs foreign ministr* spo/esman Li% ;eimin to d reporters in <ei,ing( 4avin Cha$hava pongp%n' asso$iate professor at O*oto Universit*Js Centre for So%theast 5sian St%dies' said 5S"5N mem)ers are resisting the idea of sett ing territoria $ aims )i atera *( L+his is )e$a%se the* fee that the* wi not have eno%gh )argaining power in dea ing with a )igger China'L he to d 5D4( -egiona tensions have risen re$ent *' with )oth Eietnam and the 4hi ippines a$$%sing <ei,ing of aggressive )ehavio%r in the So%th China Sea(

Mani a? Bei)ing? and UNCLOS: a test "ase8 <* 5 e# Ca vo M1N Introdu"tion: Internationa a3 and the South China Sea 5fter a ong s%mmer rep ete with tensions and in$idents in )oth the So%th China M2N and "ast China Seas' the new *ear fai ed to )ring renewed hopes for a pea$ef% reso %tion to the m*riad territoria $onf i$ts $asting a shadow on the 5sia74a$ifi$ -egion( -ather the $ontrar*' renewed in$idents' nava rearmament' $ aims and $o%nter$ aims' not a wa*s vei ed threats to resort to for$e' and de$entra i:ed )o*$ott $ampaigns and $*)erspa$e $ ashes( One nove t* was the de$ision )* the 4hi ippines to tr* a new ta$/ in its $ ash with China' resorting to a too not previo%s * emp o*ed )* an* of the $ aimants' M>N name * a re9%est for ar)itration %nder UNCLOS (the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea)( 5 tho%gh this gam)it was re,e$ted )* China' and the fate of the $ase is %n$ertain at the time of writing' we wi e#amine the ega positions of 1ani a and <ei,ing in the $onte#t of their wider disp%te' and the far7rea$hing imp i$ations of the $ase( M?N +he re9%est had to ta/e into a$$o%nt ChinaJs de$ision to opt o%t of UNCLOS ar)itration on $ertain iss%es pertaining to their $onf i$t' a)ove a the e#a$t de imitation of maritime )orders( 5 tho%gh the 4hi ippinesJ ar)itration re9%est did not th%s refer to maritime )o%ndaries per se' it is sti not $omp ete * $ ear whether the 3nternationa +ri)%na of the Law of the Sea (3+LOS) wi a$$ept the $ase( 5n ar)itration tri)%na ' made %p of five ,%dges' has )een $onvened )%t has not *et r% ed on whether it has ,%risdi$tion( Of parti$% ar interest in ight of the ongoing China7.apan territoria $onf i$t over the Diao*%tai0Sen/a/%s is ands is the fa$t that 3+LOS is headed )* a .apanese ,%dge( 5 tho%gh not a part* to the So%th China Sea disp%te' +o/*o has provided a meas%re of s%pport on maritime iss%es to 1ani a and Canoi in re$ent *ears( Some see the $ase as a test of whether internationa aw and tri)%na s s%$h as 3+LOS $an $ontri)%te to pea$ef% reso %tion of o%tstanding territoria disp%tes in 5sia in a time of profo%nd transformation( 3t is parti$% ar * re evant in view of the disparit* in si:e and mi itar* potentia )etween the 4hi ippines and China' a tho%gh the former is s%pported )* other powers( 7hat is Mani a as0ing !or8 B#passing ChinaIs derogation On 22 .an%ar*' 201>' the 4hi ippine government informed the Chinese "m)ass* in 1ani a that it had s%)mitted an app i$ation for ar)itration in a$$ordan$e with UNCLOS( M6N +his was re,e$ted )* <ei,ing' whose am)assador to 1ani a' 1a Oe9ing' de ivered a note verbale on 19 De)r%ar* Lstating that China re,e$ts and ret%rns the 4hi ippinesJ Notifi$ation and Statement of C aimL( MBN +he first thing to %nderstand a)o%t the $ase is that UNCLOS provides for $omp% sor* ar)itration of $ertain disp%tes' )%t it a so a ows signatories to avoid ar)itration )* de$ aring a derogation in $ertain e#$eptiona $ases' that is a de$ision to opt o%t of ar)itration( China did so' and the 4hi ippines was th%s for$ed to tread $aref% * when drafting its re9%est' to prevent <ei,ing from resorting to these e#$eptions' whi$h in$ %de the de imitation of maritime )orders and mi itar* a$tivities( +he s%$$ess of the Di ipino $ase $r%$ia * depends on the a)i it* to $onvin$e 3+LOS that 1ani a is not see/ing a r% ing on an* 9%estion on whi$h UNCLOS a ows <ei,ing to opt o%t of

ar)itration and indeed for whi$h China did so( On the other hand' sho% d China ater de$ide to $ontest the pro$eedings' her first ine of defense wo% d )e pre$ise * that an ar)itration tri)%na a$/s the power to iss%e a r% ing on a matter $overed )* ChinaJs derogation( +he a)ove is $ ear from the wording of 1ani aJs s%)mission' and the a$$ompan*ing note addressed to the Chinese "m)ass*' whose first ines state that what the 4hi ippines see/s is to L$ ear * esta) ish the sovereign rights and ,%risdi$tion of the 4hi ippines over its maritime entit ements in the ;est 4hi ippine SeaL' witho%t an* mention of spe$ifi$ maritime )orders( MAN 3n the app i$ation itse f' 1ani a refers to the e#tent of ChinaJs e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&)' )%t does not disp%te an* spe$ifi$ ine or territoria $ aims( -ather' it notes how disproportionate and dis$onne$ted from the Law of the Sea Chinese $ aims are( 3n 3ntrod%$tion 1' the te#t sa*s that the 4hi ippines L$ha enge ChinaJs $ aims to areas of the So%th China Sea and the %nder *ing sea)ed as far as 8A0 na%ti$a mi es from the nearest Chinese $oastJJ( M8N Ne#t' in 3ntrod%$tion 2' 1ani a opens fire on one of the pi ars of <ei,ingJs $ aims to most of the So%th China Sea' name * the so $a ed Lnine7dash ineL defining the territor* over whi$h it demands Lsovereignt*L and Lsovereign rightsL( 3n addition' in 3ntrod%$tion >' the te#t states that within the Lnine7dash ineL China has L aid $ aim to' o$$%pied and )%i t str%$t%res on $ertain s%)merged )an/s' reefs and ow tide e evations that do not 9%a if* as is ands %nder the Convention' )%t are part of the 4hi ippinesJ $ontinenta she f' or the internationa sea)edL' adding in 3ntrod%$tion 6 that' Lin .%ne 2012L the L4rovin$e of CainanL set %p a Lnew administrative %nitL $overing La of the maritime feat%res and waters within the Jnine dash ineJJJ and ater passed a aw' whi$h went into for$e Lon 1 .an%ar* 201>JJ' providing for the Linspe$tion' e#p% sion or detention of vesse s Ji ega *J entering the waters $ aimed )* China within this areaJJ( M9N China*s territorial claims in the #outh China #ea

not in a$$ordan$e with UNCLOS( +his refers to the $on$ept of the Lnine dash ineL itse f' and to the $onstr%$tion of fa$i ities and de$ aration of territoria seas 0 ""& aro%nd is ets not $onsidered is ands %nder UNCLOS' whi$h 1ani a $ aims are either inside her ""& or in the high seas (witho%t see/ing' as a read* e#p ained' a de imitation of either' or of ChinaJs own ""&)( M16N +h%s' the gist of the s%)mission is two7fo d= to see/ to e#$ %de the $on$ept of a Lnine7dash ineL from the aw of the sea' as not fa ing into an* of the $ategories (s%$h as territoria sea or ""&) re$ogni:ed )* UNCLOS and )* the $%stomar* aw of the sea (whi$h to a arge e#tent UNCLOS $odifies)' and to tr* to prevent <ei,ingJs de fa$to $ontro of s%)merged feat%res and is ets (and the ere$tion of artifi$ia str%$t%res on them) from giving rise to a$$epted $ aims to territoria seas and ""&s( +his d%a response $orresponds to <ei,ingJs two7pronged strateg*' name * tr*ing to impose a new ega $on$ept and' sho% d that fai ' re *ing on a $om)ination of ph*si$a $ontro over is ets and e#isting ega $ategories (territoria sea and ""&) to a$hieve the same p%rpose( 3n ChinaJs $ase' tho%gh' a$hieving her % timate target thro%gh this fa )a$/ strateg* wo% d a so re9%ire for$ing a reinterpretation of the $on$ept of an ""& so that the rights of $oasta states were e#panded' in$ %ding first and foremost the e#$ %sion of mi itar* and inte igen$e7gathering a$tivities )* other $o%ntries( +he s%)mission refers to these s%)merged feat%res when it states that L"ven )efore its first offi$ia espo%sa of the Jnine dash ineJ China )egan to sei:e ph*si$a $ontro of a n%m)er of s%)merged feat%res and protr%ding ro$/s ((( and to $onstr%$t artifi$ia Jis andsJ on top of themL' adding that the* in$ %de L1is$hief -eef' 1$Oennan -eef' 2aven -eef and S%)i -eefL and that none of them Lis an is and %nder 5rti$ e 121 of UNCLOSL )%t Lat )est ow tide e evations' far removed from ChinaJs territoria sea' e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and $ontinenta she fL( +he te#t a so arg%es that L<e$a%se the* are not a)ove water at high tide' the* are part of another StateJs $ontinenta she f' or the internationa sea)edL and $ aims that China a$ted L%n awf% *L )* sei:ing them and de$ aring Lmaritime :ones aro%nd them(L M1BN +he te#t f%rthermore refers to Lsi# sma ro$/s that protr%de a)ove sea eve within the 4hi ippinesJ e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :oneL' name * LS$ar)oro%gh Shoa L' whi$h China Lsei:edL in 2012' $ aiming La maritime :one for itse fL e#tending to Lappro#imate * A0 1 to the "astL' in a$$ordan$e with the Lnine dash ine(L M1AN 3t is important to note that the s%)mission e#p ains that )oth China and the 4hi ippines Lassert sovereignt*L over S$ar)oro%gh Shoa )%t does not as/ for a r% ing on this matter( 3nstead' it stresses that' disregarding who sho% d e#er$ise sovereignt*' LNone of the ro$/s' whi$h ie in $ ose pro#imit* to one another' generates entit ement to more than a 12 1 territoria sea(L M18N On$e more' 1ani a see/s to )*pass 9%estions on the territoria e#tent of sovereignt*' $on$entrating instead on its $onse9%en$es a$$ording to UNCLOS( ;hatever the merits of the Di ipino $ase' no one' and $ertain * not 1ani a or 3+LOS' $an for$e <ei,ing to parti$ipate in the pro$eedings' ma/e s%)missions' designate an ar)itrator' and agree on the other three ,%dges( Cowever' there are two things that 1ani a $an do( Dirst of a ' it $o% d hope to get 3+LOS to

#ource/ 0ikipe"ia +his is fo owed ater in the 3ntrod%$tion )* a straight demand for an award that' among others' Lde$ ares that the 4artiesJ respe$tive rights and o) igations in regard to the waters' sea)ed and maritime feat%res of the So%th China Sea are governed )* UNCLOS' and that ChinaJs $ aims )ased on its Jnine dash ineJ are in$onsistent with the Convention and therefore inva id(L M10N D%rthermore' in 3ntrod%$tion A' 1ani a stresses that L+he 4hi ippines does not see/ in this ar)itration a determination of whi$h part* en,o*s sovereignt* over the is ands $ aimed )* )oth of them( Nor does it re9%est a de imitation of an* maritime )o%ndaries( +he 4hi ippines is $ons$io%s of ChinaJs De$ aration of 26 5%g%st 200B %nder 5rti$ e 298 of UNCLOS' and has avoided raising s%),e$ts or ma/ing $ aims that China has' )* virt%e of that De$ aration' e#$ %ded itse f from ar)itra ,%risdi$tion(L M11N 5$t%a *' the s%)mission itse f devotes se$tion ?0 to preemptive * atta$/ <ei,ingJs re ian$e on the 26 5%g%st 200B de$ aration' stating that Lthe 4hi ippinesJ $ aims do not fa withinL it L)e$a%se the* do not= $on$ern the interpretation or app i$ation of 5rti$ es 16' A? and 8> re ating to sea )o%ndar* de imitations@ invo ve histori$ )a*s or tit es within the meaning of the re evant provisions of the Convention@ $on$ern mi itar* a$tivities or aw enfor$ement a$tivities@ or $on$ern matters over whi$h the Se$%rit* Co%n$i is e#er$ising f%n$tions assigned to it )* the UN CharterJJ( M12N 3t is th%s $ ear that the L$oreL (a term emp o*ed )* the Department of Doreign 5ffairs itse f' M1>N) of 1ani aJs $ase is a demand for a de$ aration that ChinaJs Lnine dash ineL M1?N is

iss%e a r% ing with <ei,ing a)sent( 3f the tri)%na ref%sed to do so' then it $o% d at east tr* to portra* China in a )ad ight' as a $o%ntr* not f% * s%re of the merits of its own $ase and re iant on might rather than right( +his was e#p ained in some detai )* -ome - <agares' M19N an internationa aw professor at L*$e%m 4hi ippines Universit* Co ege of Law' who wrote that L%n ess the parties agreed to the $ontrar*' the defa% t mode for 9%estion of interpretation and app i$ation of the UNCLOS or re evant treaties is an ar)itration %nder 5NN"K E33L' )%t in signing %p to UNCLOS' states $an Lopt o%t of these $omp% sor* pro$ed%res %nder the so7$a ed 5rti$ e 298 e#$eptions' whi$h' among other things' pertain to disp%tes $on$erning mi itar* a$tivities' in$ %ding mi itar* a$tivities )* government vesse s and air$raft engaged in non7 $ommer$ia servi$e' and disp%tes $on$erning aw enfor$ement a$tivities in regard to the e#er$ise of sovereign rights or ,%risdi$tion as we as sea )o%ndar* de imitations' or those invo ving histori$ )a*s or tit esL( <agares a so e#p ained that China had done so Lin a forma de$ aration on 5%g%st 26' 200BL( Dor these reasons' as dis$%ssed a)ove' the 4hi ippines was e#treme * $aref% when drafting its re9%est for ar)itration' in a )id to )*pass this Chinese derogation( 1ani a wanted to ma/e $ ear that its re9%est $overed on * areas not in$ %ded in <ei,ingJs reservation' made %nder 5rt( 298 of UNCLOS' and that it was not as/ing for a r% ing on those other areas( +his was a so e#p ained )* another Di ipino aw professor' Dr Carr* -o9%e' M20N who noted that' LO%r s%)mission of $ aims is $rafted in a manner that wi e#$ %de a of ChinaJs reservations( Dor instan$e' the s%)mission as/ed the tri)%na to r% e on the va idit* of the $ontroversia Jnine7dash ineJ' sin$e it does not $onstit%te either ChinaJs interna waters' territoria sea' or e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one( +his as/s the tri)%na to r% e' as an iss%e of interpretation of UNCLOS' whether the nine7dash ines $omp ies with the Convention( Li/ewise' China has )%i t permanent str%$t%res on reefs s%$h as 1is$hief and S%)i' whi$h are permanent * %nder water( +he s%)mission as/s that the tri)%na de$ are that sin$e these are neither Lro$/sL nor Lis andsJJ' the* sho% d )e de$ ared as forming part of o%r $o%ntr*Js $ontinenta she f' or the nat%ra pro ongation of o%r and massL( China sa#s JNoJ% Is a ru ing sti possi( e8 5s e#pe$ted' China ref%sed to s%)mit to ar)itration( 3t was no s%rprise on two a$$o%nts= <ei,ingJs traditiona hosti it* to internationa ar)itration or s%)mission to an* /ind of tri)%na ' M21N and the repeated warnings over the previo%s few months to 1ani a not to initiate s%$h pro$eedings( On re$eiving ChinaJs response' the 4hi ippines stated that' LChinaJs a$tion wi not interfere with the pro$ess of 5r)itration initiated )* the 4hi ippines on 22 .an%ar* 201>( +he 5r)itration wi pro$eed %nder 5nne# E33 of UNCLOS and the 67mem)er ar)itration pane wi )e formed with or witho%t China(L M22N +his )egs the 9%estion of whether ChinaJs ref%sa is in itse f in a$$ordan$e with internationa aw( +he starting point m%st )e the twin $on$epts of sovereignt* and $onsent( +he pi ar of internationa aw' sovereignt*' )asi$a * means that states do not re$ogni:e an* s%perior( 5 tho%gh 9%a ified )* $on$epts s%$h as $o e$tive se$%rit*' this remains ver* m%$h the fo%ndation of internationa aw and the internationa s*stem( Drom this $omes the fa$t that states are on * )o%nd )* those r% es and de$isions to whi$h the* $onsent( 3n the $ase of $%stomar* internationa aw' it is the pra$ti$e of states p %s their )e ief in its $omp% sor* nat%re' whi$h provides the

ne$essar* $onsent( 3n the $ase of treaties' $onsent is provided thro%gh signat%re and ratifi$ation of $onventions( Con$erning ar)itration' parties m%st vo %ntari * s%)mit to the pro$eedings( Cas then China provided her $onsentX ;ith regard to the app i$a) e aw' UNCLOS' we have noted that <ei,ing is a signator*' a )eit with some reservations provided for in the te#t of the Convention itse f( +herefore' with those e#$eptions' there is indeed $onsent as to the materia aspe$ts of the disp%te( Con$erning ar)itration' <ei,ing has re,e$ted it( Or has sheX 3t is tr%e that' even )efore 1ani a fi ed s%it' China had made $ ear that it wo% d not a$$ept ar)itration( Cowever' in internationa aw (,%st as in domesti$ aw) there are two wa*s to $onsent to ar)itration( Dirst' the parties to a disp%te ma* agree to it on$e the disp%te emerges and the* are %na) e to rea$h a so %tion thro%gh other means( Se$ond' the* ma* agree in advan$e of an* s%$h disp%te( +his is what the 4hi ippines )e ieves China did when ratif*ing UNCLOS' as e#p ained in the s%)mission' whi$h $ aims that sin$e L+he 4hi ippines and China are )oth parties to UNCLOS ((( it fo ows that )oth parties have given their advan$e $onsent to the regime of sett ement of disp%tes $on$erning the interpretation and app i$ation of the Convention esta) ished in part KE(L M2>N +his is a view that <ei,ing has not s9%are * addressed( 5s we sha see ater' China has rather resorted to insisting on its preferen$e for )i atera negotiations and its interpretation of the 2000 De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC)( Cowever' China has not p%t forward an* e#p anation as to how its advan$e $onsent $ontained in ,oining UNCLOS wo% d not app * to it( +h%s' as provided for in 5rt( >()) of 5NN"K E33 UNCLOS' 1ani a appointed an ar)itrator' .%dge -%diger ;o fr%m' M2?N M26N and e#pe$ted <ei,ing to do i/ewise' with three others to )e $hosen )* agreement )etween the parties( Cowever' on >1 .an%ar*' a spo/esman for ChinaJs Doreign 1inistr*' Cong Lei' anno%n$ed that <ei,ing had re,e$ted 1ani aJs re9%est for internationa ar)itration' adding that it was $ontrar* to the L5S"5N $onsens%s for )i atera negotiationsL' a referen$e to the 2000 De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC)( M2BN ;ith regard to the 2000 De$ aration' however' 4rofessor <agares )e ieves that it La$t%a * a ows resort to UNCLOS me$hanisms' as is stated for instan$e in DOC prin$ip es 1' > and ?(L M2AN 2oing )e*ond the impa$t of the 5S"5N De$ aration' the 9%estion that immediate * emerged' fo owing <ei,ingJs forma ref%sa to ta/e part in ar)itration pro$eedings' was whether the $ase $o% d move forward and an ar)itration tri)%na )e $onvened an*wa*( +he possi)i it* that a part* ref%ses to ta/e part in a $ase is a$t%a * $onsidered in the Convention itse f' with 5rti$ e 9 of 5nne# E33 (5r)itration) UNCLOS reading= 3f one of the parties to the disp%te does not appear )efore the ar)itra tri)%na or fai s to defend its $ase' the other part* ma* re9%est the tri)%na to $ontin%e the pro$eedings and to ma/e its award ((( <efore ma/ing its award' the ar)itra tri)%na m%st satisf* itse f not on * that it has ,%risdi$tion over the disp%te )%t a so that the $ aim is we fo%nded in fa$t and aw( M28N +hat is' the 4hi ippines $o% d as/ 3+LOS to move forward' r% e that it has ,%risdi$tion over the $ase' and appoint the mem)ers of the ad ho$ ar)itration tri)%na that wi hear it( +his wo% d not' of $o%rse' ass%re that the tri)%na wo% d r% e in a$$ordan$e with the Di ipino demands' sin$e its mem)ers

wo% d have to as$ertain the fa$ts and app i$a) e aw' even witho%t 1ani a' <ei,ing' and UNCLOS= a test $aseX <* 5 e# Ca vo

5s 4rofessor <agares noted' this is 1ani aJs position( +he s%)mission arg%es that L5s the 4hi ippines and China have fai ed to sett e the disp%te )etween them )* pea$ef% means of their own $hoi$e' 5rti$ e 281(1) a ows re$o%rse to the pro$ed%res provided for in 4art KE' in$ %ding $omp% sor* pro$ed%res entai ing )inding de$isions %nder Se$tion 2 of 4art KEL' whi e L5rti$ e 28B a ows these $omp% sor* pro$ed%res to )e initiated )* an* State 4art* in the $o%rt or tri)%na having ,%risdi$tion %nder Se$tion 2L(

Not ever*)od* agrees with a)e s s%$h as L)i:arreL and Lf%ti eL' however' as is $ ear in the response to 4rofessor Nord9%ist )* .% ian O% in the Opinio .%ris ) og( O% agrees Lthat the sit%ation is oddL )%t adds that Lit is not %npre$edentedL' stressing that L+he 5nne# E33 provisions $ ear * $ontemp ate sit%ations where one part* ref%ses to appoint an ar)itrator )* giving the power to the 4resident of 3+LOS to appoint the rest of the tri)%na ( 1oreover' genera internationa ar)itra pra$ti$e is to a ow ar)itrations to pro$eed even when one part* ( i/e China) )o*$otts the who e pro$eedingL(

;ho $an $hoose whi$h path to fo owX +he s%)mission sa*s that an* part* $an initiate pro$ed%res' and that this in$ %des Lre$o%rse to an ar)itra tri)%na %nder 5nne# E33 of the ConventionL( +his is ?A>)$APamp@$)]VnJ target]J^) an/J_`img sr$]Jhttp=00asianmedia($om0255N0www0de iver*0avw(phpX :oneid]>BPamp@$)]VnPamp@n]a9?A>)$APamp@$t0]V$J )order]J0J a t]JJ _`0a_

Con$erning the ro e of a tri)%na in s%$h $ases' O% e#p ains that the Ltri)%na t*pi$a * $ontin%es to give noti$e to the )o*$otting part*' and wi rea$h a reasoned award )ased on its own assessment of the aw and fa$ts( 3t does not t*pi$a * simp * a$$ept the parti$ipating part*Js s%)missions as tr%e(L M>1N

the $ase %n ess the other part* has made a de$ aration Lp%rs%ant to 5rti$ e 28A(1)L' something that Lneither the 4hi ippines nor ChinaL has done( +he te#t a so notes that Lno agreement to the $ontrar* $%rrent * e#istsL and that therefore there is no )ar to ar)itration pro$eedings( M29N ;e have a read* noted that <ei,ing ho ds' to the $ontrar*' that s%$h an agreement is $ontained in the 2000 De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC)' a view that 1ani a re,e$ts(

O% a so 9%estions 4rofessor Nord9%istJs $on$ %sion that the $ase is Ldoomed to fai %re )e$a%se if the part* wonJt $onsent to the ar)itration there is then no enfor$ementL' arg%ing that LChina has a read* $onsented to 5nne# E33 ar)itration' at east with respe$t to a owing a tri)%na to )e $onstit%ted and to determine whether it has ,%risdi$tion in a disp%te( China $onsented when it a$$eded to UNCLOS( 5 China has done so far is ref%se to appoint an ar)itratorL' adding that Las an* private internationa $ommer$ia ar)itrator $o% d te *o%' $onsent to an ar)itration does not in an* wa* g%arantee enfor$ementL(

Some have s%ggested that <ei,ingJs ref%sa to ta/e part in the pro$eedings ma/es the $ase f%ti e from a ega point of view' whi e $on$eding that it ma* p a* a po iti$a ro e in the $onf i$t over the So%th China Sea( +his is the view of 4rofessor 1*ron Nord9%ist' of the Center for O$eans Law and 4o i$* at the Universit* of Eirginia' who a)e ed the sit%ation L9%ite )i:arreL' whi e $on$eding that 1ani aJs move had a$$omp ished Lone of its p%rposesL' name * Lto )ring attention to this and po iti$a * to give the Di ipino government the arg%ment that JCe*' we tried to so ve this pea$ef% * and *o% wo% dnJt p a*JL(

Ce $on$ %des that' Lif China had parti$ipated in the ar)itration )* appointing an ar)itrator' 3 donJt thin/ it wo% d have affe$ted its i/e ihood of $omp *ing with an* ar)itra award( UNCLOS does not have an* san$tions regime a/in to' sa* the Disp%te Sett ement Understanding of the ;+O' so China wo% d not fa$e an* forma san$tions if it fai ed to $omp * with an ar)itra award(L M>2N

5s a res% t' O% )e ieves that the de$ision )* 1ani a to $ontin%e with the $ase Lis not rea * an* more f%ti e than if China had f% * parti$ipatedL' sin$e in either sit%ation LChina wo% d i/e * not have $omp ied with an* %nfavora) e award(L M>>N

Cis overa assessment of the $ase is that it is Lnot entire * f%ti eL' whi e warning that Lit is doomed to fai %re )e$a%se if the part* wonJt $onsent to the ar)itration there is then no enfor$ementL( Ce adds' LCow wo% d the* e#pe$t a $o%ntr* that didnJt want to have a disp%te sett ed )* third parties to fee in an* sense )o%nd )* a de$ision where the* didnJt even parti$ipate(L M>0N

Con$erning how i/e * 3+LOS was to appoint an ar)itration tri)%na witho%t Chinese parti$ipation' 4rofessor <agares noted that Lavai a) e pre$edents 7 there are on * seven s%$h ar)itrations $ond%$ted %nder 5NN"K E33 sin$e the UNCLOS too/ effe$t in 199? 7 seem to te the 4hi ippines it has itt e $a%se to worr* as far as ,%risdi$tiona gro%nds are $on$erned(L M>?N

+his optimisti$ view was shared )* O%' who in another post wrote that' Lthe few 5nne# E33 ar)itra tri)%na s that have )een $onstit%ted have genera * not hesitated to r% e on their own ,%risdi$tion ((( "ven worse from ChinaJs perspe$tive' these 5nne# E33 ar)itra tri)%na s iss%ed their ,%risdi$tiona de$ision at the same time as the* iss%ed the award on the merits(L M>6N

Notifi$ation on the s%)mission of So%th China Sea iss%e to internationa 5r)itrationL(

+hese views seem to )e prevai ing' sin$e 3+LOS went forward and assem) ed a five7mem)er pane to hear the $ase( 3n addition to the mem)er nominated )* the 4hi ippines' 2erman*Js .%dge -%diger ;o fr%m' the +ri)%na Js president' appointed the fo owing ,%dges= L.ean74ierre Cot (Dran$e) and 5 fred Soons (the Nether ands) in 5pri and Stanis aw 4aw a/ (4o and) in 1ar$hL' together with L+homas 1ensah of 2hanaL( +he atter Lrep a$ed .%dge Chris 4into of Sri Lan/a' who resigned from the ar)itration pane in 1a* short * after his appointment )e$a%se his wife is Di ipino(L M>BN 1ensah wi preside over the ar)itra tri)%na ( M>AN 4aw a/ was appointed as ChinaJs representative' a )eit )* 3+LOS president Sh%n,i Uanai' not <ei,ing( M>8N 5 press re ease )* the 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Sea informed that LD%rther to $ons% tations )* $orresponden$e with the parties on the matter' 1r +homas 1ensah has )een appointed to serve as mem)er and president of the ar)itra tri)%na L( M>9N

3n his rep *' he s%mmed %p <ei,ingJs position' stating that LChinaJs sovereignt* over the Nansha 3s ands and their ad,a$ent waters is s%pported )* a)%ndant histori$a and ega eviden$eL' adding that L)earing in mind the arger interest of China74hi ippines re ations and regiona pea$e and sta)i it*L <ei,ing had Lremained $ommitted to ((( )i atera negotiationsL(

Cong stressed that resort to negotiations was not ,%st <ei,ingJs approa$h )%t a so Lthe $onsens%s )etween China and 5S"5N $o%ntries as stip% ated in the De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in the So%th China Sea (DOC)L( Ce stated that 1ani aJs re9%est for ar)itration Lr%ns $o%nter to the $onsens%sL and L$ontains man* grave errors )oth in fa$t and in aw' and in$ %des man* fa se a$$%sations against China(L M?>N +he idea that the DOC prevents the resort to ar)itration had a read* )een p%t forward )* Doreign 1inister Uang .ie$hi at the .% * 2012 5S"5N -egiona Dor%m Doreign 1inisters 1eeting' where he said that' JJ;hat is essentia is that a parties e#er$ise se f7restraint in /eeping with the spirit of the DOC' and refrain from ta/ing moves that wi es$a ate and $omp i$ate the disp%tes and affe$t pea$e and sta)i it*L' adding that Lthe Convention has not given itse f the a%thorit* to $hange the territor* of $o%ntries and that it $annot )e $ited as the )asis for ar)itration in territoria disp%tes )etween $o%ntries(L M??N +he tone of CongJs remar/s was rather $ondes$ending' sa*ing that the Di ipino s%)mission $ontained mista/es )%t not deigning to ist them( D%rthermore' he $ aimed that the 4hi ippines had )een given Lword' not to ta/e an* a$tion that magnifies and $omp i$ates the iss%eL' in a thin * disg%ised referen$e to its internationa i:ation( +he spo/esman hoped that the 4hi ippines wo% d revert Lto the right tra$/ of sett ing the disp%tes thro%gh )i atera negotiationsJJ( M?6N

5$$ording to -a% Cernande:' spo/esman for the 4hi ippine Doreign 5ffairs Department (D5D)' L+he five7mem)er ar)itra tri)%na wi now organi:e itse f and esta) ish its own r% es and reg% ations(L M?0N 3n addition' the tri)%na wi have to determine whether it has ,%risdi$tion to hear the $ase( +he $ase wi on * move forward after it has determined Lthat the $omp aint fi ed )* the 4hi ippines has ega merit and fa s %nder its ,%risdi$tionL( On 11 .% * the tri)%na met for the first time and a$$ording to the D5D Ldesignated +he Cag%e in the Nether ands as the seat of the ar)itration and the 4ermanent Co%rt of 5r)itration as the -egistr* for the pro$eedings(L M?1N +h%s' whi e the pro$eedings are moving forward' the /e* de$ision' that is whether the ar)itration tri)%na has ,%risdi$tion' sti has not )een ta/en )* the five ,%dges(

+he reasons )ehind <ei,ingJs JNoJ 5s mentioned ear ier' even )efore 1ani a initiated pro$eedings' <ei,ing had a read* warned the 4hi ippines not to do so( <ei,ing a so warned the 4hi ippines not to dis$%ss the pro) em with other $o%ntries or raise it in internationa fora' )%t 1ani a has p%rs%ed these three ven%es( M?2N

5t another media $onferen$e the da* after' Cong' when as/ed again a)o%t the iss%e' on$e more insisted that L<oth the 4hi ippines and China are signatories to the De$ aration on the Cond%$t of 4arties in So%th China Sea (DOC) and have made $ommitments on $omprehensive and earnest imp ementation of the DOCL' adding that' L;e disapprove of the 4hi ippine Doreign 1inistr*Js pra$ti$e of )ringing internationa ar)itration and have made $ ear o%r opposition stan$e(L M?BN Drom 2010' Cong has served as LDep%t* Dire$tor 2enera ' Department of 3nformation' 1inistr* of Doreign 5ffairs (1D5)(L M?AN

On re$eiving the Di ipino s%)mission' <ei,ing re,e$ted it' and this was a$$ompanied )* some statements )* offi$ia s to the media( On 19 De)r%ar*' Chinese spo/esperson Cong Lei was as/ed to $onfirm whether LChina has ret%rned the 4hi ippinesJ

5 tho%gh some so%r$es des$ri)ed 1ani aJs s%)mission as a Ls%rprise moveJJ' M?8N and the timing ma* indeed have )een so' it seems $ ear that China was at east aware of the possi)i it*

that this might happen( +his wo% d have given <ei,ing at east a few months to ponder a response(

not ,%st an o),e$t of internationa aw' )%t a so a p a*er and potentia * a shaper(

Drom the p%) i$ statements )* senior Chinese offi$ia s fo owing the s%)mission' however' we $annot see an* great differen$e with <ei,ingJs traditiona stan$e on internationa ar)itration' or more wide * internationa re ations( ;e $an note' tho%gh' a a$/ of an immediate rea$tion )* the regimeJs press' whi$h too/ a few da*s to respond( M?9N

<asi$a *' what <ei,ing is sa*ing' $onfirming a de$ades7 ong po i$*' is that )order disp%tes sho% d )e dea t with in )i atera ta /s' not m% ti atera fora or internationa $o%rts or ar)itration tri)%na s( +his stands in $ontrast with 1ani aJs des$ription of ar)itration as La friend *' pea$ef% and d%ra) e form of disp%te sett ement that sho% d )e we $omed )* a (L M60N 5$$epting ar)itration in this $ase ma* set a pre$edent M61N for the remaining territoria $onf i$ts )esetting China( 3n the past de$ades <ei,ing has sett ed some' whi e others remain open(

On the other hand' persisting in its ref%sa to a$$ept ar)itration $o% d $ast a shadow over ChinaJs soft power' %ndermining the attempt to portra* itse f as a Lpea$ef% * emergentL power' in $ontrast with ;estern imperia powers( +h%s' whi e China is hard * the on * $o%ntr* read* to %se for$e' and a$t%a * %sing it in "ast 5sia' the re$ent s%$$ession of in$idents $o%p ed with the ref%sa to entertain ar)itration ma* r%n $o%nter to the narrative of <ei,ing as a LdifferentL emerging power' one resorting to po iti$s' e$onomi$s and $% t%re as the too s of state$raft(

;hat are the % timate reasons )ehind <ei,ingJs re %$tan$e to s%)mit to ar)itrationX Dirst' we ma* note that as a histori$a * great $o%ntr*' the eading power in "ast 5sia' China is re %$tant to a$$ept the possi)i it* that foreigners ma* de$ide the fate of her )orders( Cer e#perien$e in the 19th and 20th $ent%r*' when she was often s%),e$t to the hosti e a$tions of other powers on * reinfor$ed this( Se$ond' China has never f% * a$$epted some /e* aspe$ts of internationa aw' as is $ ear from the persisten$e of the Lnine dash ineL $on$ept or the insisten$e on /eeping foreign warships awa* from her e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one (""&)( +hird' a tho%gh it is impossi) e to predi$t what 3+LOS wi de$ide if an award is fina * stip% ated' it is rather %n i/e * that the res% t wo% d strong * s%pport ChinaJs position( "ven if on * partia * favoring the 4hi ippines' an award $o% d serio%s * %nder$%t ChinaJs am)itions in the So%th China Sea(

+he damage to Chinese prestige wo% d )e essened if the n%m)er of in$idents invo ving other $ aimants to the So%th China Sea in$reased( 5n e#amp e $o% d )e the re$ent death of a +aiwanese fisherman at the hands of the 4hi ippine 3s andJs Coastg%ard( +he in$ident prompted Chinese 2enera L%o U%an to sa* that LOpening fire on a +aiwanese fishing )oat is not on * a provo$ation to +aiwan' )%t to the entire Chinese fami *L' adding that <ei,ing sho% d aid +aiwan if the 4hi ippines did not apo ogi:e( Ce s%ggested $oordination )etween +aiwanJs and ChinaJs $oastg%ards' mi itar* e#$hanges' and a L$ooperationL agreement )etween fishermen asso$iations on )oth sides of the +aiwan Strait( M62N

+aipei' however' did not ta/e the )ait' and after imposing some harsh san$tions' ater agreed to $ompensation' an apo og*' two para e investigations (with m%t%a aid)' the opening of $rimina pro$eedings' and most signifi$ant * the a%n$h of negotiations on a fisheries agreement( +he goa wo% d )e to $on$ %de a dea simi ar to that with +o/*o' where)* sovereignt* is eft for f%t%re dis$%ssion whi e the parties set %p fishing :ones and imp ement other $onfiden$e7)%i ding and $oordination meas%res to prevent in$idents( 5t the time of writing the san$tions have )een withdrawn and the fisheries ta /s are pro$eeding(

Con$erning internationa aw' whi$h is to a arge e#tent a $reation of ;estern $o%ntries' and signifi$ant * the United States after ;or d ;ar 33' we $an note first of a that an* rising power is i/e * to want to at east inf %en$e its f%t%re deve opment( +his ma* even in$ %de f%ndamenta $hanges to some of its )asi$ tenets(

+h%s' .apan tried to get a Lra$ia e9%a it* $ a%seL in$ %ded in the Eersai es +reat*' whi e the Soviet Union pressed for the $on$ept of a L$ osed seaL for *ears( 3t $omes as no s%rprise that China' whi$h for $ent%ries en,o*ed s%)stantia power in reg% ating re ations with her neigh)ors on the )asis of a tri)%tar*7trade s*stem' ma* wish to shape the internationa ega arena( Dor the first time in a $ent%r* and a ha f' <ei,ing is

1ore genera *' if <ei,ing managed to $om)ine her mi itar* might with +aiwanJs soft power' its a)i it* to more effe$tive * inf %en$e events wo% d grow( +his is more easi * said than done' however' d%e to +aiwanJs $omp e# interna d*nami$s and attempts to raise its internationa profi e whi e improving re ations with China( +aiwanese po iti$s and foreign po i$* def* simp isti$ a)e s( 3t was an a eged * pro7Chinese president who signed a fisheries agreement with .apan' whi e man* a eged * pro7independen$e po iti$ians were 9%i$/ to $ondemn the 4hi ippines fo owing the death of fisherman C%ng Shih7$heng(

Dor China to ma/e a %7t%rn and s%)mit a territoria $onf i$t to ar)itration wo% d )e a s%rprising de$ision( 5 $ompromise

so %tion invo ving a sta* of the pro$eedings ma* )e a more rea isti$ possi)i it*' )%t if <ei,ing )e ieves that time wor/s in her favor' this wo% d )e %n i/e *( S%$h a fee ing ma* rest on a per$eption that ChinaJs nava power is growing' not ,%st in a)so %te )%t in re ative terms $ompared with her neigh)ors and the US( 3t is diffi$% t to ,%dge whether this is the $ase( The Kapanese "onne"tion: Kusti"e :anai Shun)i 5nother noteworth* aspe$t of the ar)itration $ase is the fa$t that the 3+LOS is $%rrent * headed )* Uanai Sh%n,i' a .apanese ,%rist and former dip omat( Ce is a good e#amp e of one of the aspe$ts of +o/*oJs post7o$$%pation engagement with internationa instit%tions' name * the as$ent to signifi$ant positions of a n%m)er of .apanese offi$ia s( Of $o%rse' as a ,%dge UanaiJs d%t* is to disregard his own nationa it*' )%t we $annot avoid )rief * noting that .apan is one of the $o%ntries invo ved in a territoria disp%te with <ei,ing( +he fate of maritime disp%tes in the 5sia74a$ifi$ goes straight to the heart of .apanJs nationa interests' a fa$t $ompo%nded )* UNCLOSJ reg% ations that in/ possession of tin* is ands to vast rights to the s%rro%nding seas( D%rthermore' two different strands of .apanese opinion wi )e fo owing the $ase( On the one hand' those .apanese voi$es /een to emphasi:e $ooperation and the r% e of aw as the fo%ndation of pea$e and $onf i$t reso %tion( On the other' those more haw/ish rea ists who wo% d i/e to draw a ine in the sand( +h%s' a $riti$a mass of .apanese as we as Chinese o)servers and de$ision ma/ers wi )e $ ose * wat$hing the ar)itration $ase( <e$a%se of a this' sho% d Uanai de$ide to press for a $ontin%ation of the $ase despite <ei,ingJs a)sen$e' China might rea$t )* atta$/ing him on the )asis of his nationa it*' and' a the more so' when and if a fina r% ing is re eased' sho% d it go against Chinese interests( The impa"t o! Bei)ingIs ar(itration re!usa +he first thing we need to remem)er is that' as man* o)servers warn' the 3+LOS ma* ta/e *ears to iss%e a r% ing M66N or even to de$ide whether it has the power to do so( ;hat $o% d )e the impa$t of the pro$eedings d%ring this ong waitX +he fo owing have )een pointed o%t M6BN= a Strong opposition from China' )eginning with her Lindignant responseL to the origina re9%est( a Strained Sino7Di ipino re ationship( a 2reater o)sta$ es to the $on$ %sion )* 5S"5N and China of a )inding $ode of $ond%$t on the So%th China Sea( 3n addition' we sho% d note that ChinaJs re,e$tion of the pro$eedings was a possi)i it* that was i/e * a read* anti$ipated )* the 4hi ippines( Cowever' 1ani a $o% d sti )enefit from ChinaJs de$ision not to parti$ipate in ar)itration( Dirst' )e$a%se it p%ts China on the defensive and ma/es her oo/ ess than f% * $onfident in the strength of her $ase( Se$ond' sin$e as a read* dis$%ssed' 3+LOS ma* sti )e entit ed to iss%e a r% ing( On the other hand' some Chinese voi$es are warning of the impa$t on )i atera re ations d%ring the pro$eedings( -%an &ong:e' vi$e president of the China 3nstit%te of 3nternationa St%dies (C33S)' an instit%tion %nder the Chinese Doreign 5ffairs 1inistr*' d%ring an offi$ia to%r of So%theast 5sia' said= L;e $an anti$ipate a diffi$% t period of time in the ne#t fo%r *earsL )e$a%se of the ar)itration( Ce $a%tioned that e$onomi$ re ations wo% d not )e imm%ne to the $ase' warning that the ar)itration pro$eedings Lwi $ertain * not )e $ond%$ive to )ring )a$/ Chinese visitors or de egationsL( -eiterating that China

On the one hand' China is $ ear * a$$e erating the e#pansion of its nava power' )%t so are $o%ntries i/e .apan and 3ndia' not to mention Eietnam( "ven the 4hi ippines' traditiona * $onsidered to have a ver* wea/ nav*' has anno%n$ed p ans to %pgrade it' and is re$eiving mi itar* aid from )oth the US and .apan( 1ani a has re$ent * re$eived a se$ond Cami ton7$ ass $%tter from the US' the <-4 -amon 5 $ara:' whi$h rea$hed S%)i$ <a* on ? 5%g%st' M6>N whereas .apanese 4rime 1inister 5)e Shin:o' in his atest trip to the 4hi ippines' $onfirmed that +o/*o wo% d )e providing 10 sma er $raft to the $o%ntr*Js $oastg%ard( M6?N

5nother $ontri)%ting fa$tor ma* )e the possi)i it* that ;ashington' having paid heavi * for the wars in 5fghanistan and 3ra9' is osing the e$onomi$ strength and the po iti$a wi to intervene in 5sia( Converse *' man* ana *sts' r%nning in the opposite dire$tion' have )eg%n to high ight ChinaJs potentia e$onomi$ and finan$ia wea/nesses whi$h ma* s ow down her high growth rates' and the mora and nava rearmament that $o%ntries s%$h as .apan' Eietnam' and the 4hi ippines are $ond%$ting( 5 /e* varia) e ma* )e the degree of $oordination among the maritime demo$ra$ies (and Eietnam)' and we a so have to )ear in mind -%ssiaJs ro e(

<ei,ing wi assess a these m*riad $ontradi$tor* reasons in de$iding whether to /eep %pping the ante in terms of mi itar* press%re' or whether it ma* )e wiser to negotiate from a position of strength( the )enefit of Chinese s%)missions(

wo% d not ta/e part in an* internationa ar)itration pro$eedings' he en$o%raged 1ani a to engage <ei,ing )i atera *' adding that ar)itration wo% d Les$a ateL regiona tensions( M6AN -oes time !avor Bei)ing or Mani a8 ;hat prompted 1ani a to initiate ar)itration in .an%ar* 201>X 3an Store* noted the fo owing fa$tors M68N= a D%ti it* of past attempts at negotiation( a LDeve opments in the So%th China Sea ast *earL' first and foremost the ta/eover of S$ar)oro%gh Shoa in 5pri and 1a* and <ei,ingJs notifi$ation to the Di ipino a%thorities that it was LpermanentL( a 5S"5NJs %/ewarm rea$tion to 4hi ippine attempts to dis$%ss the iss%es at the organi:ationJs s%mmit in .% *' when then $hair Cam)odia ref%sed to in$ %de the dis$%ssions of the iss%e in the fina $omm%ni9%e' arg%ing that it was a )i atera matter( 5s a res% t' for the first time in ?6 *ears' the s%mmit ended witho%t an* $omm%ni9%e )eing re eased( M69N a +he iss%ing )* Cainan 4rovin$ia 2overnment' in Novem)er 2012' of Lreg% ations a owing for the )oarding' detention and e#p% sion of foreign vesse s within its ,%risdi$tionL( +his egis ation' whi$h $ame into for$e on 1 .an%ar*' 201>' aro%sed an#iet* a$ross the region( ;e $o% d a so add that it ma* have seemed the right moment to tr* to p%t the spot ight on the $onf i$t at a time when the 4hi ippines was hoping to win greater dip omati$ and mi itar* s%pport from ;ashington and +o/*o( 5 tho%gh the US offi$ia * ta/es no position in the territoria disp%te itse f' it is $ ear that it $annot a ow China to attain master* of the So%th China Sea an* more than she $o% d oo/ the other wa* whi e 2erman* tried to )e$ome the master of the 5t anti$( +his is simp * a geopo iti$a imperative' )earing no $onne$tion to the nat%re of the power( 3n re$ent *ears' 5meri$an mi itar* assistan$e to the 4hi ippines has in$reased' in the form among others of hardware provision and in$reased rotationa dep o*ments( ;ith regard to +o/*o' she is $%rrent * fina i:ing the detai s on the provision of some 10 patro )oats to the 4hi ippines' MB0N whi e a so s%pporting Eietnam in her territoria $onf i$t with China( MB1N 1ani a ma* have fe t that a $ ear move $o% d strengthen her $ase in the e*es of other maritime nations in the 5sia74a$ifi$( Domesti$ opinion ma* a so )e an iss%e' with the government att%ned to the growing n%m)er of Di ipinos $a ing for re,e$tion of <ei,ingJs demands( ;ith regard to whether time favors <ei,ing or 1ani a' we have a read* dis$%ssed the wa*s in whi$h Chinese $apa)i ities re ative to other ittora states and the United States ma* in$rease or de$rease in the $oming *ears( 3f we set aside mi itar* $apa)i ities and e$onomi$ strength' and oo/ at mora e and the wi ingness to emp o* for$e in the territoria disp%tes with China' <ei,ing ma* perhaps have a read* ost its )est $han$e( 3t seems that a n%m)er of $o%ntries' and not ,%st those i/e Eietnam or the US' with a strong mi itar* tradition' ma* )e in$reasing * read* to $ontemp ate the %se of for$e 7 imited for$e' sin$e we sho% d not forget that <ei,ing is after a a n%$ ear power( 3n the $ase of the 4hi ippines' this ma* )e fa$i itated )* the

$easefire )etween the government and the 1%s im re)e s' whi$h if $onso idated ma* a ow the mi itar* to grad%a * redire$t its reso%r$es and training towards maritime $onf i$ts' instead of $o%nterins%rgen$*( 3t is too ear * to )e s%re whether this wi )e$ome a rea it*' tho%gh( Con$erning .apan' the $o%ntr* has ta/en modest )%t re ent ess steps towards her Lnorma i:ationL as a mi itar* power over the ast de$ades' )%t powerf% domesti$ $onstit%en$ies remain re %$tant to foreign entang ements and s%spi$io%s of the emp o*ment of for$e( 3n addition' arge 9%estion mar/s $ontin%e to hover over her e$onom* and demograph*( 3n a sense' for China the pro) em ma* )e that nava rearmament has not /ept pa$e with her in$reasing * ro)%st rhetori$ and' having a erted her neigh)ors and other powers' it )e$omes more diffi$% t to a$hieve $ ear s%periorit* at sea and in the air( 4erhaps <ei,ing forgot <ismar$/Js di$t%m not to fight a two7front war' or' more genera *' not to r%n the ris/ of a $risis on two fronts( +his ma* )e even more of a pro) em if her neigh)ors $oordinate their efforts( Cowever' despite some $ ear intentions to do so' this is far from eas*( On the one hand' no one rea * wants to provo/e <ei,ing( On the other hand' man* $o%ntries' for e#amp e most 5S"5N mem)er states' are rather re %$tant to open * $ha enge China' whose power the* $ontemp ate with a hea th* dose of respe$t( +his ma* e#p ain' for e#amp e' the $a%tio%s and often m%ted response to news of 1ani aJs ar)itration re9%est( ( .%st a fina note in this se$tion' $on$erning two re$ent deve opments that ma* have an impa$t on Chinese po i$* towards the So%th China Sea' or more wide * the sett ement of maritime disp%tes( Dirst of a ' the de$ision )* <ei,ing to $onso idate most of her e#isting maritime se$%rit* agen$ies %nder the aegis of the LState O$eani$ 5dministrationL( +his ma* fa$i itate $ommand and $ontro and he p avoid %nintended es$a ations( MB2N Se$ond' ChinaJs s%$$essf% )id for permanent o)server stat%s in the 5r$ti$ Co%n$i saw <ei,ing Lrep%diateL her ear ier position Lthat no state had sovereignt* in the 5r$ti$' a $ ear s ap at -%ssian $ aimsL and Lstate that it respe$ted the sovereignt* of a the states $ aiming territor* in the 5r$ti$ )%t a$$ept that the de$ision wi )e made in the f%t%re 7 a sharp $ontrast to its rigid insisten$e on its J$ore interestsJ and sovereignt* in the Sen/a/%s and the So%th China SeaL( MB>N +he atter is a reminder that China $an sti )e' and sometimes is' pragmati$ and f e#i) e( +his is $ ear * the $ase in the 5r$ti$' an area ri$h in nat%ra reso%r$es and signifi$ant in terms of f%t%re trade ro%tes( The +hi ippines and 3or d pu( i" opinion 1ani a has made it $ ear that it intends to p%sh for a r% ing in a)sentia' and e#p ains wh* UNCLOS provides the )asis for s%$h a r% ing sin$e the Convention does not grant parties to a disp%te the possi)i it* of ) o$/ing the pro$eedings )* ref%sing to appoint ar)itrators(

Cowever' some Di ipino voi$es are open * admitting that a h*potheti$a ar)itration award in the $o%ntr*Js favor wo% d not )e de fa$to enfor$ea) e' and that its va %e wo% d )asi$a * ie in providing mora s%pport for 1ani a in its 9%est to win over p%) i$ opinion a)road( On 18 1a*' S%preme Co%rt 5sso$iate .%sti$e 5ntonio Carpio said that whatever the o%t$ome of the ar)itration $ase' 1ani aJs on * re$o%rse against <ei,ing wo% d )e to Lappea to wor d opinionL( 5t a $ommen$ement spee$h at the 4amatasan ng L%ngsod ng 1a*ni a' he e#p ained that if the r% ing went against the 4hi ippines' China wo% d )e a) e to enfor$e it than/s to her nava strength( On the other hand' if 1ani a won' sin$e UNCLOS does not provide an* enfor$ement me$hanism' the Di ipino 2overnment wo% d have to as/ the UN Se$%rit* Co%n$i to imp ement the de$ision( Cowever' this wo% d )e s%),e$t to a veto )* an* of the five permanent mem)ers' one of them China( Carpio made it $ ear that <ei,ing Lwi nat%ra * veto an* enfor$ement meas%re against itse fJJ( MB?N Carpio was neverthe ess optimisti$' sa*ing that' L;ith a favora) e de$ision from the ar)itra tri)%na ' and wor d opinion a so in o%r favor' time wi )e on the side of the 4hi ippines(L MB6N -egard ess of the o%t$ome of this s%)mission' it is $ ear that 1ani a is hoping to sei:e the initiative in the $o%rt of p%) i$ opinion' p%shing China into a $orner and presenting itse f as the reasona) e part* in favor of the r% e of aw and negotiated sett ement' as opposed to <ei,ingJs a eged re ian$e on p%re mi itar* might( <ei,ingJs position is that on histori$a gro%nds most of the So%th China Sea L)e ongsL to China' with L)e ongsL in )ra$/ets )e$a%se it is sti not $ ear whether this fits with notions s%$h as territoria waters and ""&s or we are ta /ing a)o%t a new ega $ategor*' and that negotiations sho% d )e %nderta/en on a )i atera )asis and e#$ %ding non7 ittora states( +he insisten$e on )i atera dea ings is tempered )* an a$$eptan$e of negotiations with 5S"5N( <ei,ingJs $riti$s a so stress the grad%a emergen$e of a n%m)er of feat%res in$ %ding a $omp e# mi#t%re of fishing vesse s and 9%asi7 mi itar* agen$ies( On the other hand' China sees the presen$e of these re$ent * $onso idated agen$ies in those waters as a ogi$a e#tension of her territoria $ aims' and regards as defensive the operations that other $o%ntries ma* ,%dge offensive( Spea/ing to the press' Defense Se$retar* Eo taire 2a:min said that 1. "i mas magan"a para sa atin pag hin"i sila mag2 participate (3t wo% d )e favora) e for %s if the* MChinaN do not parti$ipate)L' adding that L;e ' the nat%ra rea$tion Mwo% d )e to as/N ((( wh* the* donJt want to fa$e the tri)%na (L MBBN ;hi e 1ani a tries to portra* <ei,ing as a )% *' read* to %se might regard ess of right' China attempts to appear as a reasona) e power tr*ing to rea$h a reasona) e so %tion to the different disp%tes thro%gh )i atera negotiations( D%rthermore'

<ei,ing see/s to present 1ani aJs a$tions as r%nning $o%nter to the grad%a * deve oping %nderstanding with 5S"5N' e#emp ified )* the DOC( 5 so' <ei,ing often see/s to portra* the 4hi ippines as an o)sta$ e to )etter re ations with ;ashington( Dor the Di ipino strateg* to wor/' tho%gh' the 4hi ippines wi have to $onstr%e and re a* a narrative a) e to disp a$e the powerf% p%) i$ re ations ma$hiner* of the 4-C' and not ever*one )e ieves the* are a$hieving the goa ( 3n the same pie$e )* .% ian O% 9%oted ear ier' he sa*s that LDor this to wor/' tho%gh' the 4hi ippines has got to tr* to ed%$ate the g o)a media more effe$tive *L' adding that LCead ines from US5 +oda*' for instan$e' des$ri)ing China as re,e$ting JUN 1ediationJ on * ma/e things m%r/ier for them( China is going to p a* the Jwe7,%st7want7to7negotiate7%n i/e7*o%7tro%) esome7 Di ipinosJ $ard( +he 4hi ippines needs to p a* the Jwe7are7,%st7 as/ing7for7the7ar)itration7that7*o%7$onsented7toJ $ard(L MBAN ;e $o% d th%s )e witness to a harsh and ong )att e in the wor d press and so$ia media' with ea$h side tr*ing to appear as the reasona) e one whi e painting the other as not on * the aggressor )%t a threat to g o)a pea$e and sta)i it*( Con$erning the possi)i it* of the 4hi ippines shaming <ei,ing into )e$oming more f e#i) e' O% is s/epti$a ' noting that Ldomesti$ p%) i$ opinion in China eans in the opposite dire$tionL( ;e sho% d note here that the different $o%ntries in the region have fanning the f ames of their own p%) i$ opinions( ;e sho% d a so note that this is a $omp e#' )idire$tiona pro$ess' even more so with the advent of the 3nternet and so$ia media( On the one hand we $an see <ei,ing and other governments and po iti$a eaders $overing themse ves in the mant e of nationa ism( On the other' we $an a so see $iti:ens and private organi:ations p%shing their own governments to )e more assertive vis7a7vis their neigh)ors( 3n demo$ra$ies' parties and po iti$ians wi inevita) * )e for$ed to at east partia * a$/now edge and ta/e %p s%$h demands( "ven in a%thoritarian s*stems' however' as in China and Eietnam' no r% er $an afford to $omp ete * ignore p%) i$ opinion( +h%s' as a res% t of these d*nami$s' to an e#tent f%t%re 5sian and wor d eaders ma* find it e#treme * diffi$% t to ma/e the /ind of $on$essions ne$essar* to se$%re asting pea$e in the 4a$ifi$( Co% d a f%t%re Chinese administration reno%n$e the nine7dash ineX Simi ar * we ma* as/ o%rse ves whether a Di ipino administration ma* s%rvive a gest%re seen as appeasing <ei,ing( +o this we m%st add the ris/ that' fa$ed with an interna $risis' the Chinese Comm%nists ma* rea$t i/e the 5rgentine ,%nta in 1982 Mprior to its war with <ritain over possession of the 1a vinas0Da / and 3s andsN' in an attempt to ra * domesti$ p%) i$ opinion )ehind a $a%se trans$ending ideo ogi$a ' regiona and so$ia divisions( +e ing their own pop% ation that the So%th China Sea )e ongs to them ma* he p the regime in the short term' )%t $o% d ead to protests if it is %na) e to de iver(

3n his %noffi$ia histor* of the Da / ands ;ar' C%gh <i$heno e#p ains how territoria $onf i$ts ma* )e %sef% to Ldistra$t the massesL' )%t Lit $reates an iss%e others wi e#p oit to 9%estion the Nationa ist $redentia s of whoever is refraining from re$overing the ost ands(L MB8N +he growing signs of e$onomi$ de$e eration ma* tempt some Chinese eaders( On the other hand' tho%gh' the* ma* a so have the opposite effe$t' eading them to temporari * moderate their p%) i$ statements for fear of not )eing a) e to ive %p to the e#pe$tations raised( +he 4hi ippines are not a one in see/ing to $omm%ni$ate more effe$tive * their position to other governments and p%) i$ opinion' $o%ntering Chinese statements( So%r$es in the 5)e administration have a so e#pressed an awareness of the need to devote more efforts towards this goa (

distin$t from the $on$ept of histori$ waters in that the atter is $ommon * $onsidered to imp * a regime of interna waters that does not permit freedom of navigation and over f ight( China has not and wi not impede the freedom of navigation for $ommer$ia and norma pea$ef% p%rposes(L +his is fo owed )* some $riti$ism of the United States for' among others' not ratif*ing UNCLOS whi e p%shing China to $omp * with it( Ea en$ia a so e#p ains that <ei,ing does not see ;ashington as Lne%tra L' one of the reasons )eing that whi e L+he US a so insists that China negotiate these iss%es m% ti atera * with a ) o$ of $ aimants and non7$ aimants( China )e ieves that sett ement of the disp%tes sho% d )e negotiated )* Jsovereign states dire$t * $on$ernedJ as stip% ated in the 2002 5S"5N7 China agreed De$ aration of Cond%$t in the So%th China Sea (DoC) and that non7regiona parties sho% d not )e invo ved(L MA0N Ea en$ia seems to favor a so %tion invo ving a reinterpretation of internationa aw to ta/e into a$$o%nt ChinaJs stat%s( Ce writes that' LOf $o%rse the ega p%rists who thin/ internationa aw is a)so %te and %n$hanging and are wedded to the stat%s 9%o 7 whi$h favors ;estern powers 7 wi $riti$i:e this position( <%t the rea it* is that Jinternationa aw is the arms of geopo iti$sJ and its evo %tion and interpretation wi )e inf %en$ed )* rising nations 7 ,%st as the* have )een inf %en$ed )* toda*Js Jg o)a eadersJ(L MA1N 3t is positive to see eading s$ho ars tr*ing to )ridge the gap )etween China and other $o%ntries( Cowever' Ea en$iaJs depi$tion of UNCLOS as ;estern7oriented drew some fire' with EietnamJs +%an 4ham (an asso$iate professor at the Universit* of New So%th ;a es) $ommenting in the for%m that L+he UNCLOS gained wide a$$eptan$e not )e$a%se it favors ;estern powers' )%t )e$a%se $o%ntries arge and sma a over the wor d' in$ %ding a $o%ntries aro%nd the So%th China Sea' have s%)s$ri)ed to it' a ma,or e#$eption )eing the predominant western power' the US5( Non7western powers and sma er maritime $o%ntries in parti$% ar approved of the UNCLOS and asso$iated internationa ega me$hanisms )e$a%se the* give them prote$tion against )ig powers' western and others(L 4ham a so e#p ains that LChinaJs Jhistori$a rightsJ $ aim are ten%o%s and one7sided at )est (1a a* and 3ndonesians $r%ised the SCS and 3ndian o$ean ong )efore the Chinese vent%red far from their shores)L and warns that L egitimi:ing these rights wo% d open a 4andoraJs )o# of $onf i$ting histori$a $ aims a over the wor d' as per$eived nationa )o%ndaries have f %$t%ated and over apped in the seas even more than on andJJ( MA2N 3n his rep *' Ea en$ia arg%ed that' LUNCLOS is not the on * aw app i$a) e to $ aims in the So%th China Sea( 2enera internationa aw was deve oped main * )* ;estern $o onia powers and favors their interestsL' adding that L3t is tr%e that egitimi:ing histori$a $ aims wo% d open a 4andoraJs ,ar 7 ,%st as the US did )* its %ni atera +r%man 4ro$ amation of 19?6(L MA>N 4ham' however' disagreed on histori$a rights' and offered an a ternative wa* o%t' sa*ing that L3t is not tr%e that histori$a rights ()e*ond territoria waters) have )een ignored )* the UNCLOS and that $o%ntries are therefore entit ed to ma/e new interpretations a)o%t them( 5rti$ e B2 of the UNCLOS spe$ifi$a * refers to the d%t* of $oasta states to Jminimi:e e$onomi$ dis o$ation in States whose nationa s have ha)it%a * fished in the Me#$ %sive e$onomi$N :oneJ( +his appears to )e a perfe$t * reasona) e )asis for the pea$ef% reso %tion of

A p us !or ru e o! a3? or pushing China into a "orner8 ;e m%st )ear in mind the fa$t that a ,%dgment in a)sentia' that is witho%t <ei,ing appearing )efore the tri)%na ' $o% d )e $o%nter7prod%$tive( +his was the $ase in the 19>0s when' p%shed into a $orner )* the L*tton -eport' $riti$a of its po i$* in 1an$h%ria' .apan $hose to withdraw from the Leag%e of Nations( Uanai ma* th%s )e re %$tant to p%sh China into a $orner' for fear of seeing <ei,ing withdraw from the internationa instit%tions and normative regimes from whi$h it was ong e#$ %ded )* a $om)ination of US and 5 ied po i$* and the $o%ntr*Js iso ationist po i$ies %nder 1ao &edong' and whi$h she has grad%a * ,oined over the ast few de$ades( +he norma i:ation of US7China re ations %nder -i$hard Ni#on' and the ater grad%a opening %p of the $o%ntr* to the wor d' ran/ among the most signifi$ant deve opments of the ast third of the 20th $ent%r*( +h%s an* person in a position of responsi)i it* is s%re to thin/ more than twi$e )efore doing an*thing that ma* threaten them( +his ma* )e one of the reasons wh* some s$ho ars have tried to find a wa* to ma/e UNCLOS and ChinaJs $ aims $ompati) e' so that the former ma* perhaps )end and not )rea/' and the atter ma* fee that she $an regain at east part of her histori$a stat%s witho%t the need to open * $onfront ;estern7inspired internationa aw( +h%s' whi e in the a)ove mentioned address' .%sti$e 5ntonio Carpio said that Ls$ho ars of the aw of the sea a over the wor dL $onsidered ChinaJs nine7dash ine as Lwitho%t )asis in internationa awJJ' MB9N in an arti$ e for N54SN"+ 4o i$* Dor%m 1ar/ Ea en$ia ($%rrent * a visiting senior s$ho ar at the Nationa 3nstit%te for So%th China Sea St%dies' Cai/o%' China) tried to find a wa* o%t of this $on%ndr%m( Ea en$ia s%ggested China iss%e a statement $ arif*ing her position $on$erning the So%th China Sea' and provided a draft( +he te#t p%t forward tries to p a$e <ei,ingJs $ aim to most of the So%th China Sea within the framewor/ of UNCLOS( Ea en$ia e#p ains that the $onvention Ldoes not define histori$ tit e' histori$ rights or histori$ watersL and tries to ass%age seafaring nationsJ fears )* stating that LChinaJs $ aim of histori$ rights is

possi) * over apping histori$a fishing $ aims( (4eop e of $o%rse did not e#p oit $ontinenta she ves in an$ient histor*()L Ce a so defended US president +r%manJs pro$ amation' arg%ing that Lit opened the wa* for a $oasta $o%ntries to e#p oit reso%r$es the* did not have a$$ess to previo%s *' and to prote$t themse ves from the ri$her maritime powersL( Ce a so $riti$i:ed the $on$ept of Lhistori$a rightsL' sa*ing that Lon andL the* had L)een a ma,or $a%se of two wor d wars and $o%nt ess other $onf i$ts that $ontin%e to this da*(L MA?N <e*ond the respe$tive merits of the two views' this e#$hange ref e$ts one of <ei,ingJs $ha enges' name * )%i ding a $oa ition to defend her post%re on the So%th China Sea( Un ess China is a) e to do that' a$$%sations of L$o onia L and L;estern7 orientedL internationa aw are i/e * to )e $ontested )* post7 $o onia non7;estern $ommentators( +his does not mean that Chinese views en,o* no s%pport from other $o%ntries( +he histor* of the $onta$ts and negotiations )etween 5S"5N and <ei,ing $on$erning the So%th China Sea show how the former is )* no means a %nified ) o$( MA6N ;hi e 1ani a has re$eived a meas%re of s%pport' man* $apita s wo% d i/e the regiona organi:ation to provide a for%m to rea$h a asting sett ement with China' or at east to def%se tensions and deve op imited agreements and $onfiden$e )%i ding meas%res' rather than )e$oming a regiona a ian$e against <ei,ing( +he pro) em for China is that none of the $o%ntries s*mpatheti$ toward' or at east pragmati$a * eaning towards <ei,ing' is a ma,or immediate neigh)or( +h%s the histor* of 5S"5N7China $onta$ts $on$erning the So%th China Sea is a )itter7sweet ta e( On the p %s side for <ei,ing' no hosti e regiona ) o$ has emerged( On the negative side' no regiona %nderstanding with China has deve oped that $o% d a$$ommodate <ei,ingJs needs( 3t is neverthe ess possi) e that the interpretation of UNCLOS ma* evo ve in the So%th China Sea to partia * a$$ommodate Chinese interests' to an e#tent that other parties ma* find a$$epta) e' whi e China on the other hand agreed not to p%sh for $hanges in other )odies of water' as <ei,ing seems to have done in the 5r$ti$ to fa$i itate her a$$ession as permanent o)server to the 5r$ti$ Co%n$i ( ;e $an th%s $on$ %de that $han$e' and de$ades of effort at )e$oming a respe$ted mem)er of the internationa $omm%nit*' has p a$ed a .apanese $iti:en at the heart of a /e* ega $ase( +his is an additiona reason wh* the $ase wi )e /een * fo owed in .apan' sin$e a tho%gh not dire$t * invo ving the $o%ntr* it is re ated to her own territoria disp%tes with China( UanaiJs presen$e ,%st adds an additiona .apanese $onne$tion to the pro$eedings( 5 tho%gh some s$ho ars ho d that UNCLOS a ows the 3+L to iss%e a r% ing in a)sentia' the $o%rt ma* )e re %$tant to p%sh <ei,ing into a $orner( 5 tho%gh not i/e *' the possi)i it* that <ei,ing ma* rea$t to the press%re' in$ %ding the 4hi ippinesJ ar)itration $ase' )* withdrawing from UNCLOS has )een addressed )* some a%thors( 5gain we $an note 1ar/ Ea en$ia' who re$ent * $a%tioned a)o%t L+he danger of p%shing China too far on aw of the seaL( 3n his pie$e' Ea en$ia dis$%sses what the $onse9%en$es ma* )e' and reminds his a%dien$e that Lsome of ChinaJs po iti$a ana *sts and parti$% ar * mi itar* offi$ers seem to )e 9%estioning wh* China ratified the aw of the sea treat* in the first p a$eL' adding that L4art of the e#p anation is that China ass%med 7 o)vio%s * in$orre$t * 7 that the disp%te sett ement me$hanism $o% d )e avoided )* dire$t negotiationsL(

+his ma* )e a /e* iss%e( 3t is not %n$ommon for $o%ntries to sign a treat* despite not fee ing $omforta) e with some of its provisions' o%t of a mi#t%re of hope that the* $an )e avoided (among others' thro%gh derogations) and $onsideration for the positive aspe$ts of the te#t( 3n this regard' Ea en$ia e#p ains that LChina and other deve oping $o%ntries viewed the treat* as a pa$/age dea with man* J)argainsJ )etween the maritime powers and deve oping $o%ntries' in$ %ding e#tensive navigationa rights for maritime powers in e#$hange for the deep sea)ed mining provisions(L MABN Ea en$ia $on$ %des )* warning that LChina $o% d withdraw from the treat*L and that' a tho%gh LChina wo% d sti )e s%),e$t to the de$ision of the tri)%na in the 4hi ippines $aseL' <ei,ing Lwo% d then )e ega * free to Jpi$/ and $hooseJ the $onventionJs provisions and interpret them in its favo%r 7 ,%st as the US does nowJJ( MAAN Ripp es a"ross the +a"i!i" 5 fina aspe$t to $onsider is the potentia impa$t of the US non7 ratifi$ation of UNCLOS( 5 tho%gh ;ashington signed the $onvention and s%$$essive administrations have shown their s%pport for UNCLOS provisions' going as far as L%noffi$ia *L imp ementing most of the te#t whi$h granted the US greater )enefits than an* other $o%ntr*' there has never )een a two7 thirds ma,orit* in the senate to ratif* it( Some of the main sti$/ing points' s%$h as the 3nternationa Sea <ed 5%thorit*' are %nre ated to the Di ipino ar)itration s%)mission( Cowever' sho% d 3+LOS ref%se to pro$eed with the $ase against China' it $o% d give amm%nition to $riti$s' man* of whom are a read* s/epti$a $on$erning the ro e of internationa aw and instit%tions in shaping Chinese )ehavior( Spea/ing to the 1ani a <% etin d%ring a trip to the 4hi ippines' ;a ter Lohman' dire$tor of the 5sian St%dies Center at +he Ceritage Do%ndation' said JJ3f MUNCLOSN $anJt determine that MChinaJsN nine7dash map is inva id' what $an it doXJJ Ce added' JJ+he de)ate Mover the ratifi$ation of UNCLOS in the USN wi )e prett* m%$h over( 3f UNCLOS is not worth eno%gh that it $anJt de$ are something in /eeping with its provisions' if the* $anJt de$ are something as inva id' what is itXJJ MA8N ;e $an th%s see how the $ase ma* have an impa$t on the internationa aw of the sea going )e*ond the immediate area invo ved to the entire str%$t%re of UNCLOS( On the other hand' there have )een reports that the United States ma* provide imager* from %nmanned airp anes to the 4hi ippines' whi$h 1ani a $o% d %se as eviden$e )efore the ar)itration $o%rt( Doreign Se$retar* 5 )ert de -osario $onfirmed this' sa*ing that L3tJs %sef% for %s to )e gathering this information whi$h $an )e %ti i:ed for o%r ar)itration $ase( 3 thin/ to that e#tent' it might )e %sef% L( De -osario added that this wo% d )e %sef% L)e$a%se of o%r interest of whatJs going on within o%r e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one and o%r $ontinenta she fL' adding L;e want to /now if there are an* intr%sionsL( MA9N Con" usion +he de$ision )* 1ani a to initiate internationa ar)itration pro$eedings against <ei,ing %nder UNCLOS mar/s a t%rning point in the ong7standing disp%te over the So%th China Sea' or more )road * over the different )odies of water s%rro%nding China( +his is even $ earer when seen in $on,%n$tion with other re$ent deve opments s%$h as the Chinese de$ision to start emp o*ing patro p anes and em)ar/ed he i$opters (operating from Coastg%ard $%tters) aro%nd the Sen/a/% 3s ands' +o/*oJs provision of patro )oats to the 4hi ippines' and .apanese

4rime 1inister 5)e Shin:oJs re$ent referen$e to the Da / ands in an address to 4ar iament( <road * spea/ing' we are seeing a widening of the a$tors invo ved' and of the methods' )oth dip omati$ and mi itar*' the* are resorting to( <ei,ing had repeated * warned 1ani a not to resort to ar)itration' and as e#pe$ted has ref%sed to ta/e part in the $ase( +he 9%estion remains whether 3+LOS wi neverthe ess appoint an ar)itration tri)%na ' in ChinaJs a)sen$e' as UNCLOS seems to permit( 5t the time of writing' a five7mem)er pane has )een $onvened( +h%s' the $ase ma* % timate * res% t in an award in a)sentia( Cowever' )efore that happens' the five ,%dges wi have to meet and determine whether the* have ,%risdi$tion over the $ase( 5 .apanese ,%dge $%rrent * heads 3+LOS' adding a f%rther twist to the stor*' given +o/*oJs s%pport for 1ani a and Canoi( Some sa* that a r% ing in favor of the 4hi ippines wo% d )e point ess sin$e it is %n i/e * that it wi ever )e imp emented( Other voi$es' parti$% ar * in the 4hi ippines' a$/now edge this possi)i it* )%t hope that s%$h a r% ing wo% d provide amm%nition in the ong r%nning soft power )att e )etween 1ani a and <ei,ing( +here are even fears that p%shing <ei,ing too far ma* res% t in her eaving UNCLOS' eading to additiona tensions and growing possi)i ities of open $onf i$t( Others see the ar)itration as a $han$e to p%t <ei,ing on the defensive' $o%ntering not on * the message that the So%th China Sea )e ongs to China' )%t a so the narrative that portra*s <ei,ing as a responsi) e moderate power see/ing to reso ve territoria disp%tes thro%gh dia og%e( <etween these two e#tremes' there are those who hope that the $ase' together with other deve opments' from rearmament )* $o%ntries i/e the 4hi ippines to Chinese pragmatism in the 5r$ti$' ma* a* the fo%ndation for a negotiated so %tion to the So%th China Sea disp%te( +his third view ma* )e )ased on the idea that s%$h a so %tion re9%ires a more ro)%st post%re' and mi itar* $apa)i ities )* other $ aimants and interested third parties' )%t at the same time the rea i:ation that tr*ing to p%sh <ei,ing into a $orner wo% d )e $o%nterprod%$tive( On an even more genera p ane' the $ase ma* $onstit%te a t%rning point for the aw of the sea (or more wide *' p%) i$ internationa aw) and for re ations )etween China and other $o%ntries( ;ith regard to the aw of the sea' the $ore of the Di ipino $ase is the in$ompati)i it* )etween UNCLOS (and $%stomar* aw) and ChinaJs $on$ept of a Lnine7dash ineL' whi$h 1ani a $ aims has no p a$e in that $onvention( Sho% d 3+LOS r% e a$$ording * (a possi)i it*' sin$e there is indeed nothing simi ar in the te#t of the $onvention) <ei,ing ma* ,%st ignore the award( 3n an e#treme $ase' a tho%gh this seems %n i/e *' she $o% d a so rea$t )* withdrawing from UNCLOS( Less dramati$a *' China $o% d a so harden f%rther her attit%de toward ;estern7inspired internationa aw and instit%tions( 3n a wa*' sin$e the ate 19A0s <ei,ing has )een p a*ing a )a an$ing game )etween her desire to re$over her stat%s as a great power and her need to p a* )* the r% es of the US7 dominated post7;or d ;ar 33 s*stem in order to reha)i itate her e$onom* and shore %p her soft power( +o a great e#tent she has )een s%$$essf% ( 5 r% ing against China' however' $o% d ma/e s%$h a )a an$ing a$t m%$h more diffi$% t( On the other hand' sho% d the $ase prompt renewed negotiations' it $o% d fa$i itate a pea$ef% m% ti atera sett ement of the So%th China Sea iss%e( 3n that $ase' despite the initia

tensions' it $o% d ena) e China to re$over her great power stat%s in para e with growing inf %en$e on' )%t no dramati$ )rea/ from' internationa aw( China is not' however' the on * a$tor that is wa /ing a $aref% ine( ;ashington and its a ies have a so )een emp o*ing a two7pronged approa$h to the 4-C( On the one hand' the* have opened their mar/ets' invested massive *' and genera * we $omed <ei,ing into the internationa $omm%nit* in$ %ding the United Nations Se$%rit* Co%n$i and the ;or d +rade Organi:ation( +his was first motivated )* the US desire to p a* off <ei,ing against 1os$ow' and ater )* a dense we) of inter o$/ing e$onomi$ interests' ranging from massive de)t p%r$hases to widespread investment in China and ind%stria re o$ation( +he res% t is a $omp e# re ationship' invo ving $ooperation and $ompetition( +he atter in$ %des insisting on freedom of navigation and disp%ting )* word and deed ChinaJs interpretation of $oasta rights in an ""&' as we as rearming or he ping ChinaJs neigh)ors rearm( <* rearmament we not on * mean the a$9%isition and dep o*ment of additiona weapons s*stems' )%t a so mora rearmament' as 5)eJs fre9%ent referen$es to 1argaret +hat$her ma/e $ ear( 3n a wa*' the* have )een tr*ing to shape and $onstrain' witho%t % timate * ) o$/ing' ChinaJs as$ent( ;hi e this ma* seem reasona) e from these $o%ntriesJ perspe$tive' it is easi * seen )* Chinese o)servers as %nd%e interferen$e in the $o%ntr*' reminis$ent of past interventions( +he $ase ma* a so raise 9%estions a)o%t the s%staina)i it* of s%$h po i$ies( +he 4hi ippineJs s%)mission % timate * prompts the 9%estion of whether right or might wi determine the fate of territoria $ aims in the So%th China Sea( +he 9%estion is whether internationa aw and dip oma$* wi p a* a signifi$ant ro e in se$%ring a pea$ef% sett ement' or at east an interim $ompromise that $o%ntries $an ive with for some de$ades' or whether it wi )e p%shed aside eaving the fate of this area to )e determined )* for$e of arms( +he answer to this 9%estion need not )e ) a$/ or white' in the sense that internationa aw does not operate in a va$%%m( ;hi e made of r% es and instit%tions' it ref e$ts at east to some e#tent the )a an$e of power at an* given time( +he $ase $o% d a so end in a $ompromise agreement feat%ring internationa aw and the sim% taneo%s amendment of internationa aw( 5 wide range of options remains open( Co%ntries are rearming' *et the* /eep ta /ing( <ei,ing is in$reasing * ro)%st in some areas' whi e pragmati$ in others i/e the 5r$ti$( +he 4hi ippines is a good e#amp e of the $omp e# mi# of po i$ies fo owed )* governments( She initiated ar)itra pro$eedings' *et at the same time is rearming and negotiating reg% ar troop rotations with the United States and .apan( 5 g immer of hope ma* )e fo%nd in the fisheries agreement )etween +aiwan and .apan' an arrangement that +aipei is see/ing to rep i$ate with 1ani a and that is a pra$ti$a imp ementation of the prin$ip e of Le$onomi$ $ooperation toda*' ta /s on sovereignt* aterL( ;hat is $ ear is that' whi$hever s$enario prevai s' the $onse9%en$es wi )e fe t thro%gho%t 5sia and the 4a$ifi$ and )e*ond for de$ades to $ome( 5s a rising g o)a power' and )eing the argest and most important e$onom* and mi itar* power in 5sia' the 4eop eJs -ep%) i$ of China (4-C) has had the %#%r* of )eing a) e to do more or ess whatever it wants in $ha enging its neigh)ors over disp%ted and and oi and gas $ aims 77 /nowing that in a i/e ihood' it wo% d not )e $ha enged( +hat d*nami$ is now

$hanging' with .apan vigoro%s * $ontesting the 4-CJs $ aim over the Sen/a/% 3s ands and the 4hi ippines ta/ing its $ aim over the Sprat * 3s ands to $o%rt( "ar ier this wee/' the 4hi ippines notified the Chinese 5m)assador in 1ani a that it was p%rs%ing L$omp% sor* pro$essL %nder 5rti$ e 28A of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)( 5$$ording to Doreign 5ffairs Se$retar* de -osario' the LNotifi$ation and Statement of C aimL wi initiate ar)itra pro$eedings %nder UNCLOS over the merits of the 4-CJs $ aim to m%$h of the So%th China Sea (/nown as the ;est 4hi ippine Sea to Di ipinos)( +he s%it was immediate * re$ogni:ed as the first L ega $aseL against the 4-C over a n%m)er of territoria and maritime disp%tes with its neigh)ors' man* of them mem)ers of the 5S"5N( 3n initiating ar)itration' De -osario stressed that the 4hi ippines has e#ha%sted virt%a * a po iti$a and dip omati$ aven%es for a pea$ef% negotiated sett ement sin$e 1996' th%s re9%iring the $ommen$ement of the ar)itra s%it( +he thresho d 9%estion rea * is whether the 4-C $an )e )o%nd )* UNCLOS $o%rts and tri)%na s' in$ %ding its ar)itra pane s( +he 4-C ratified UNCLOS in 199B' )%t in 200B the Chinese government fi ed a statement with UNCLOS sa*ing that it Ldoes not a$$ept an* of the pro$ed%res provided for in Se$tion 2 of 4art KE of the Convention with respe$t to a the $ategories of disp%tes referred to in paragraph 1 (a)' ())' and ($) of 5rti$ e 298 of the Convention(L +hese provisions of the Convention refer to LComp% sor* 4ro$ed%res "ntai ing <inding De$isionsL iss%ed )* at east fo%r ven%es= the 3nternationa +ri)%na on the Law of the Sea' the 3nternationa Co%rt of .%sti$e' an Lar)itra tri)%na L whi$h ma* refer to the 4ermanent Co%rt of 5r)itration (4C5)' and a Lspe$ia ar)itra tri)%na (L ;hi e there are ven%es avai a) e for the reso %tions of disp%tes %nder the UNCLOS regime' the 4-C does not wish to )e )o%nd )* its $omp% sor* pro$esses 77 the 3C. and 4C5 in$ %ded( 3n essen$e' it wants to )e a) e to pi$/ and $hoose whi$h stat%tes of the treaties it has vo %ntari * signed it wishes to adhere to' and )e free to ignore those that it finds Jin$onvenient(J Can a state remain a part* to a treat* or $onvention witho%t )eing )o%nd )* its r% esX Can $ontra$ting states adhere to an internationa ega regime and sim% taneo%s * opt o%t of an* )inding for$e re9%ired or to )e re9%ired )* that regimeX +he 4-C /new this da* wo% d $ome( 3ts 200B statement effe$tive * served as a LreservationL against an* )inding o%t$ome of UNCLOSJs grievan$e pro$ed%re in the f%t%re( 3t is worth pointing o%t that internationa aw does a$$ord states the freedom to dis$ aim who e $orp%ses of treat* r% es thro%gh irred%$i) e prin$ip es of se f7determination' state independen$e' and state sovereignt*( 3n short' the 4-C $an de$ide to opt o%t of treat* r% es whi$h it $onsiders to )e in$onsistent with nationa or domesti$ po i$*' and it did so in the manner re9%ired )* the treat*( De -osario a$t%a * $on$edes the 4-CJs 200B reservation' and did not attempt to ta/e an* e#$eptions' at east at the time the Chinese 5m)assador was served with noti$e( De -osario said= L((( +he 4hi ippines is $ons$io%s of the 4-CJs De$ aration of 5%g%st 26' 200B %nder 5rti$ e 298 of UNCLOS (regarding optiona e#$eptions to the $omp% sor* pro$eedings)' and has avoided raising s%),e$ts or ma/ing $ aims that the 4-C has' )* virt%e of that De$ aration' e#$ %ded from ar)itra ,%risdi$tion(L

+he 4hi ippinesJ attempt to ha% the 4-C to an internationa tri)%na is a pro) em )e$a%se it is invo/ing the ver* $omp% sor* ,%risdi$tion whi$h the 4-C has disavowed sin$e 200B( <%t even if the 4hi ippine attempt to ar)itrate fai s' an* marsha ed arg%ment $an s%)sist' and that $ase ma* )e fie ded in other ven%es( 3f mi itar* a$tivit* were to f are %p' the same $ase $an )e )ro%ght to the United Nations Se$%rit* Co%n$i 77 the prin$ipa repositor* of enfor$ement powers %nder the UN s*stem( 5 state $an )e fo%nd to )e in vio ation of a s%)stantive ega norm even witho%t a $oer$ive or $omp% sor* ,%dgment in a given ven%e' provided of $o%rse that there is tr%th to the arg%ment s%pporting a vio ation and is appre$iated )* the a ternative ven%e( ;hi e the 4-C disavows UNCLOS against the 4hi ippines' it is e#press * invo/ing UNCLOS provisions in its $ aims against .apan 77 so it wants to have its $a/e and eat it' too( 3n 2009' the 4-C s%)mitted a $ aim over the Sen/a/% 3s ands (whi$h' i/e S$ar)oro%gh Shoa and the Sprat *s' are )e ieved to )e f%e ri$h) and t%rned to UNCLOS r% es in defining and de ineating its $ontinenta she f )e*ond the 200 na%ti$a mi e e#$ %sive e$onomi$ :one' again within the meaning of UNCLOS( +here is some internationa ega do$trine s%pporting the view that a stateJs a$ts in one p a$e $an )e %sed as an admission and adverse * )ind that State in another set of $ir$%mstan$es( +he arger point is that the 4-C has not personified the -% e of Law in this $ase' or in others re ated to maritime )orders' and wants to )e a) e to J$herr* pi$/J whi$h provisions of internationa treaties it wi wi ing * $omp * with' and whi$h it wi not( +hat is )ehavior %n)e$oming of a rising g o)a power and wi ma/e states whi$h are signatories to treaties with the 4-C wonder if its signat%re is worth the paper it is printed on( +his $annot )e in the 4-CJs ong7term interest( ;hi e it is too ear * to sa* whether the 4hi ippine ar)itration $ aim wi prevai in $o%rt' the 4-C wi $ertain * not prevai in the $o%rt of internationa p%) i$ opinion(

Daniel 0agner is $.! of $ountry Risk #olutions, a cross2 bor"er risk management consulting firm base" in $onnecticut 34#A5, an" author of the book 1,anaging $ountry Risk1