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com

T HE T ARRANCE G ROUP
www.tarrance.com

MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM:

DOUG OSE FOR CONGRESS

DAVE SACKETT LOGAN DOBSON

RE: DATE:

A SURVEY OF PRIMARY VOTER ATTITUDES IN CALIFORNIA

CD 7

APRIL 25, 2014 ________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Doug Ose for Congress Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes among likely primary voters in Californias Seventh Congressional District. These key findings are based on live telephone interviews with N=350 likely primary voters throughout Californias 7th district. Responses to this survey were gathered on April 22-24, 2014 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is + 5.2% in 95 out of 100 cases. KEY FINDINGS ! Former Congressman Doug Ose currently stands extremely well positioned to advance through the primary election in Californias Seventh Congressional district and take on the vulnerable Democratic incumbent, Congressman Ami Bera. ! ! Ose dominates the other two Republicans at every level, leading by +28 points among Republican primary voters, by +23 points among very conservative primary voters, and by +24 points among Second Amendment supporters. Ose also maintains a double digit lead over both other Republicans among Tea Party supporters and strong pro-life voters. ! Ose is far and away the most well-known of the Republican candidates. He stands with 77% name ID, compared to only 51% name ID for Birman and 37% name ID for Emken. Ose also has the strongest image ratings of any of the three candidates, and his favorable rating among Republican primary voters is up at 59% and +15 points higher than Birmans favorable rating among Repubilcans. ! It is important to note that Oses advantage is not simply driven by name ID. Among those primary voters that know all three candidates, Ose maintains a +15 advantage over both Birman and Emken.

The Tarrance Group California CD 7 Primary (April, 2014)

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! Aside from his dominance of the Republican vote, Ose also performs at a much higher level than either Birman or Emken among DTS voters in the district. Ose leads both Birman and Emken by +14 points among DTS primary voters. ! On the primary ballot test, incumbent Congressman Ami Bera leads with 43%. In second, with triple the support of his next closest rival, is Doug Ose at 24%. The other two Republican candidates - Igor Birman and Elizabeth Emken are down in the single digits, with 8% and 6% of the vote respectively. ! !

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The Tarrance Group California CD 7 Primary (April, 2014)

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