A View from the Sideline

The Race is on!

This isn’t the Heisman race that nearly everyone expected this season,
what with Sam Bradford injured, Tim Tebow game managing and Colt
McCoy not at top speed...yet. But, the void at the top, so to speak has
allowed Houston’s Case Keenum, Alabama’s Mark Ingram, Notre Dame’s
Golden Tate and Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh the opportunity to make a
serious run at the Stiff-Armed Statue. Could one of them actually win?

Catch Lance Zierlein from 6 to 10 am daily, the Sean and John show, with Sean Pendergast
alongside John Granato. Listen to John Harris on show 3 to 7 PM daily. www.1560thegame.com
 NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN WEEK 9

Houston (5-3) vs. Indianapolis (7-0)

November 8, 2009 - CBS 12 PM CST
Vegas Line: IND -9 / 48

t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
92.5 ypg - 28th Run Offense 87.3 ypg - 30th
5-2-1 5-2-0
281.5 ypg - 3rd Pass Offense 316.3 ypg - 1st
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
2-5-0 3-4-0
24.8 ppg - 12th Scoring Offense 28.1 ppg - 7th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
113.2 ypg - 20th Run Defense 112.0 ypg - 17th
11/1 W, @ Buffalo 31-10 11/1 W, San Fran. 18-14
10/25 W, San Fran. 24-21 10/25 W, @ St. Louis 42-6
213.2 ypg - 14th Pass Defense 180.1 ypg - 7th
10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28-17 10/11 W, @ Tennessee 31-9
10/11 L, @ Arizona 21-28 10/4 W, Seattle 34-17
21.0 ppg - 14th Scoring Defense 13.0 ppg - 1st
10/4 W, Oakland 29-6 9/27 W, @ Arizona 31-10
+2 - 11th TO Margin +6 - Tied 5th

Last Meeting: Indianapolis - 33 vs. Houston - 27 (11/16/2008)

When the Texans have the ball... The Texans offense picked up steam last weekend despite the fact that Owen
Daniels went out with an ACL tear, but don't expect that to happen here. Daniels is one of the top pass catching TEs
in the game and his ability to stretch the middle of the field and Matt Schaub's willingness to find Daniels when he
needed a big catch will be sorely missed and maybe never more than in this one. RB Moats looked terrific last week
against a bad Bills rush defense and the Texans need the Moats/Slaton combo to have another big game Sunday
because Schaub and Andre Johnson can't do it alone. Last year the Texans played right with the Colts in both games
(and should have easily won the 2nd game) but they had great games from Slaton. The running game must step up.

When the Colts have the ball...The Colts offense is in the

bottom third of the league when it comes to rushing attempts
and yards per carry and they aren't as good this year as they
usually are when it comes to time of possession, but Peyton
Manning has been very steady this year (as always) and the
Colts aren't just winning games with fireworks on offense.  should be a decent fantasy flex option.
The Colts lead the NFL with a 3rd down conversion rate of
51% and they are getting enough out of their running game to
supplement Manning's controlled passing attack. The Texans
will try and disguise coverages against Manning but he'll go
into the game knowing what the Colts best matchups are
before a snap is even taken so it is imperative that the Texans
find a way, ANY way, to get pressure on Manning and disrupt
his timing.
Fantasy Report
Kevin Walter, Texans WR - With Daniels and
James Casey out at the TE spot, look for Schaub
to reconnect with Walter more often.  Walter
Joseph Addai, Colts RB - Addai hasn't had a
single game over 70 yards rushing this year, but
he have 3 TDs over his last 4 games.  I give him a
pedestrian RB2 rating this week.

Conclusion: I know that things looked like business as usual last week for the Texans even with Daniels out of the
lineup but I can't stress how big a loss he was. The Texans can't run the ball this year with any consistency and now
the player who was hardest to take away on offense is gone. Too much to overcome on the road against the Colts.

Colts - 24 vs. Texans - 14

 Baltimore (4-3) vs. Cincinnati (5-2)
November 8, 2009 - CBS 12 PM CST
Vegas Line: BAL -3 / 43.5

t 2009 Ranking
2009 ATS Record 2009 ATS Record
124.9 ypg - 10th Run Offense 127.7 ypg - 9th
5-2-0 4-3-0
253.9 ypg - 10th Pass Offense 218.1 ypg - 18th
2009 Over/Under 2009 Over/Under
4-3-0 4-3-0
28.4 ppg - 4th Scoring Offense 23.3 ppg - 15th
Last 5 Games Last 5 Games
87.6 ypg - 4th Run Defense 88.0 ypg - 5th
11/1 W, Denver 30-7 10/25 W, Chicago 45-10
10/18 L, @ Minnesota 31-33 10/18 L, Houston 17-28
226.1 ypg - 19th Pass Defense 253.3 ypg - 30th
10/11 L, Cincinnati 14-17 10/11 W, @ Baltimore 17-14
10/4 L, @ New England 21-27 10/4, W, @ Cleveland 23-20
19.6 ppg - 11th Scoring Defense 18.3 ppg - 6th
9/27 W, Cleveland 34-3 9/27 W, Pittsburgh 23-20
+3 - 10th TO Margin +1 - Tied 13th

Last Meeting: Cincinnati - 17 vs. Baltimore - 14 (10/11/2009)

When the Ravens have the ball... The Ravens have really started to lock in on Ray Rice as their primary back and
I think that is a good thing since he can run with burst, plays with power in the red zone and he's good out of the
backfield. The Ravens are a much more complete offensive team, but they really struggled to move the ball
consistently against the Bengals in their 14-17 loss a few weeks ago. I'm really not sure how the Ravens will attack the
Bengals this time out, but I do know that their calling card is typically to get physical with teams early in the game
when they need to make a statement so my guess is that the ground and pound will be their offense du jour on Sunday.

When the Bengals have the ball... The Bengals have a

terrific running game thanks in large part to Ced Benson's
vision and running style. Benson had a solid game against the
Ravens last time out, but it is highly unlikely that the Ravens
let him get going this time around so it will be on Carson
Palmer's right shoulder to back the Ravens off the line of
scrimmage and take advantage of their suspect CB play. If
the Bengals can protect Palmer and give him time to throw, I
believe he has the ability to pick the secondary apart early in
the game. If that happens, the running game will be much
more viable in the 2nd half and Benson can start to wear
down the Ravens. If the Bengals can't protect Palmer, the
Bengals won't win.
Fantasy Report
Ray Rice, Ravens RB - Rice has been great as a
dual threat RB for the Ravens and it doesn't look
like the Ravens show any signs of going back to
any type of committee approach.  Good RB1
rating this year.
Ced Benson, Bengals RB - Benson's success in
the first game might not be an indicator of what
is to come in this one.  I don't see a good
yardage game for Benson, but like his game vs.
the Texans he could score a TD. 

Conclusion: Bengals DC Mike Zimmer has been just as important an acquisition over the last year and a half as Ced
Benson has. If Zimmer can keep Ray Rice in check, I don't think Flacco can win this one. The Bengals first win over
the Ravens wasn't a fluke, but they need to take care of the ball better than they have recently.

Bengals - 23 vs. Ravens - 21

 PREDICTIONS ON ALL NFL GAMES THIS WEEKEND
Kansas City at Jacksonville - The Jaguars are falling into a pattern of consistent inconsistency with their up and
down offense and defense but at least they have the Chiefs this week who have no running game and no chance here -
Chiefs - 13 vs. Jaguars - 24
 
Washington at Atlanta - The Redskins have no chance here, right?  Not so fast.  The Falcons might have a little
bit of a MNF hangover and the Skins defense is a little better than people give them credit for while the Falcons
defense is suspect - Redskins - 17 vs. Falcons - 20 (Overtime)
 
Green Bay at Tampa Bay - Tampa took the week off last weekend so they will have had two weeks to prepare for the
Packers who find themselves in a must-win spot.  The Bucs will start QB Freeman for the first time so look for a
watered down offense and attempts to play ball control - Packers - 24 vs. Bucs - 14
 
Arizona at Chicago - The Bears were able to make up for their pathetic showing against the Bengals by thrashing the
Browns but that doesn't mean much these days.  The Cardinals fell apart thanks to a poor showing by QB Warner. 
The Cardinals are having some problems with their protections lately and the Bears front might be too much for the
Cardinals here - Cardinals - 20 vs. Bears - 24
 
Miami at New England - The Dolphins didn't exactly kill it on offense against the Jets but their defense and special
teams got it done.  The problem for the Dolphins is that they aren't very good in pass defense and the Pats passing
offense has started to heat up.  Did the Jets show the Pats on film how to stop the "Wildcat"?  The Dolphins better
hope not - Dolphins - 20 vs. Patriots - 28 
 
Carolina at New Orleans - The Panthers took advantage of Kurt Warner's INTs last week but they won't get that
same opportunity this week.  The Saints defense was gashed by Michael Turner which has to worry the Saints a little
bit but the Saints offense is so good that even if the Panthers running game pounds the Saints, they Panthers don't
have enough at QB to win this game - Panthers - 21 vs. Saints - 31
 
Detroit at Seattle - The Seahawks just haven't been able to play with consistency but they know that at 2-5 they are
still in the hunt for the division title as long as they start to play to their talent level.  The Lions are missing Calvin
Johnson in the worst way and he is needed greatly in this spot - Lions - 16 vs. Seahawks - 27
 
Tennessee at San Francisco - This matchup should produce and ugly, physical game with both teams relying on
their running games and defense to win.  The Titans didn't look like a team who had quit on the season last weekend
and the Niners have to turn around their losing ways if they want to keep pace with the Cardinals.  This could turn
into Gore vs. Chris Johnson - Titans - 16 vs. Niners - 14
 
San Diego at NY Giants - The Giants are a in a free-fall and if they have a poor secondary and inconsistent offense
to thank for it.  The Chargers, in my opinion, are still a little bit phony.  Traveling from the west coast to the east
coast will be tough enough but facing a desperate Giants team that can pound the rock against them will be the
Chargers undoing - Chargers - 20 vs. Giants - 28

Dallas at Philadelphia - I give Dallas a legit shot at taking this one because the Eagles offense is so dependent on
the long ball and because Dallas can run it and hit big plays as well.  Dallas is on a bit of a roll offensively right now
while the Eagles offense hasn't been as fluid.  If the Cowboys can pressure McNabb and run the football, they have a
shot here - Cowboys - 28 vs. Eagles - 24
 TEXANS X’S AND O’S WITH LANCE ZIERLEIN
* In this play, Kevin Walter is lined up outside of Andre Johnson and comes in motion until he is over the tight end,
pre-snap. Once the ball is snapped, he comes across the formation to block (shield) the defensive end.

* Joel Dreessen releases into the flat in order to get the attention of the strong safety who has to cover him which
temporarily vacates his section of the field.

* All of the linemen zone block to the right which was done successfully with the exception of the RG who was unable
to get to the middle linebacker in time.

* Moats takes a step to the right and and runs towards the inside leg of the RG and then makes the designed cutback
into the opening that has been created between Duane Brown and Kevin Walter.

* The middle LB was a step slow to come back and make the tackle and the strong safety and free safety had to
converge and make the tackle after a gain of 14 yards.
 HANDICAPPING INFORMATION
Against The Spread Trends (ATS)
Category Record Percent
Away Teams 61-53-2 53.51%
Home Teams 53-61-2 46.49%
Favorites 61-53-2 53.51%
Dogs 53-61-2 46.49%
Away Favorites 23-15-0 60.53%
Away Dogs 38-38-2 50.00%
Home Favorites 38-38-2 50.00%
Home Dogs 15-23-0 39.47%

Over vs. Under Trends

Category Overs % Unders %
Overtime Games 3 50.00% 3 50.00%
Non-Overtime Games 56 51.85% 52 48.15%
All Games 59 51.75% 55 48.25%

Top Trends
 
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons 
BALTIMORE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons 
MIAMI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 yrs. 
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons in MIAMI vs. NEW ENG.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons
STEELERS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) vs. a team with a winning record
TITANS are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a S.U. win
FANTASY NOTES
* Beanie Wells wasn't as prolific against the Panthers Moats isn't going to be the full-time RB.  That's not
as I thought he might be and the Cardinals haven't happening.  Slaton will still get his share of catches
given up on using Tim Hightower.  If you have Beanie and carries, but I'm not sure either guy will get enough
right now, hang onto him, but it will be an up and down touches to make them anything more than an average
ride with him this year for fantasy owners. RB2 from week to week depending on the matchup.
   
* I know Aaron Rodgers is pretty much a must-start * The loss of safety Kenny Phillips for the year and
against the Bucs, but I'm not sure we'll see the fantasy CB Aaron Ross for several games has killed the
fireworks from him this week that everyone is Giants pass defense.  Ross will miss this weekend
expecting.  For one, he's banged up and the Packers again which means that Philip Rivers and all of his
might very well look at this game as a chance to protect cronies on offense should be looked at as starters.
him by pounding it with RB Ryan Grant.  Secondly,  
the Bucs will be starting QB Josh Freeman for the first * I have to tell you that I came away from the MNF
time so they will probably look to run the ball for much game between the Saints and Falcons a little bit
of the game which will keep the clock ticking. concerned for Matt Ryan.  Ryan looked jittery in the
  pocket and showed a complete lack of poise at times. 
* Everyone is asking me - Ryan Moats or Steve It wouldn't surprise me if the Falcons started leaning on
Slaton?  I wish I had the answer.  The answer is that Michael Turner and the running game a bit more
Slaton has lost carries to Moats after last weekend, but after his solid showing.
 CFB SECTION BY JOHN HARRIS WEEK 10

LSU (7-1) vs. Alabama (8-0)

November 7, 2009 - CBS 2:30 PM CST
Vegas Says: Alabama -7.5 / 39.5
R 2009 Ranking

141.5 ypg - 69th Run Offense 217.6 ypg - 13th

183.6 ypg - 96th Pass Offense 192.4 ypg - 93rd

325.1 ypg - 100th Total Offense 410.0 ypg - 33rd

2009 Schedule 2009 Schedule
W, @ Washington 31-23 26.4 ppg - 67th Scoring Offense 31.8 ppg - 25th W, Virginia Tech (ATL) 34-24
W, Vanderbilt 23-9 W, FIU 40-14
W, ULL 31-3 114.4 ypg - 35th Run Defense 64.9 ypg - 2nd W, North Texas 53-7
W, @ Mississippi State 30-26 W, Arkansas 35-7
W, @ Georgia 20-13 178.6 ypg - 24th Pass Defense 176.0 ypg - 20th W, @ Kentucky 38-20
L, Florida 3-13 W, @ Ole Miss 22-3
W, Auburn 31-10 293.0 ypg - 15th Total Defense 240.9 ypg - 4th W, South Carolina 20-6
W, Tulane 42-0 W, Tennessee 12-10
11/7 @ Alabama 12.1 ppg - 7th Scoring Defense 11.4 ppg - 5th 11/7 LSU

Keys to the Game

Projected Starting Lineups Easy as 1, 2, 3...perhaps - Alabama’s NT Terrence Cody Projected Starting Lineups
Offense is as difficult to block as any nose tackle we’ve seen in the Offense
QB #9 Jordan Jefferson college game in some time. Sure, others are penetrating or QB #12 Greg McElroy
RB #32 Charles Scott good with their hands but Cody is just, well, he’s a huge mass RB #22 Mark Ingram
WR #86 Chris Mitchell of humanity that one, two or even three guys have a tough FB/HB #85 Preston Dial
WR #1 Brandon LaFell time blocking. Why is he a key this weekend? The Tigers WR #8 Julio Jones
WR #80 Terrance Toliver have proven in big games that if they can’t run the football, WR #4 Marquis Maze
TE #18 Richard Dickson especially with Charles Scott in the A and/or B gaps, they can’t TE #84 Colin Peek
T #70 Ciron Black win this game. T-Bob Hebert, Lyle Hitt and Josh Dworaczyk T #77 James Carpenter
G #68 Josh Dworaczyk must be able to move Cody or, at least, occupy him, such that G #78 Mike Johnson
C #53 T-Bob Hebert he becomes a non-factor. But, even in tying up two, or maybe, C #73 William Vlachos
G #65 Lyle Hitt three blockers, Cody stays a factor because the Tigers’ interior G #75 Barrett Jones
T #78 Joseph Barksdale can’t get up to the second level and block the great Alabama T #79 Drew Davis
linebackers. If the Tigers can double Cody for a count with
Defense one lineman moving up to block LB Rolando McClain, the Defense
DE #84 Rahim Alem Tigers will be able to run the ball somewhat effectively. And, DE #97 Lo Washington
DT #97 Al Woods it doesn’t mean the Tigers have to pick up six to eight yards a NT #62 Terrence Cody
DT #91 Charles Alexander pop. Get to third and three or third and four and the Tigers DE #95 Brandon Deaderick
DE #95 Pep Levingston have a chance. But, they won’t if Mt. Cody erupts on Saturday. LB #13 Cory Reamer
LB #24 Harry Coleman LB #25 Rolando McClain
LB #56 Perry Riley Where’s the Ocho? - The Alabama offense is 13th in the LB #35 Nico Johnson
LB #11 Kelvin Sheppard nation in rushing, with RB Mark Ingram leading the way with LB #32 Eryk Anders
CB #29 Chris Hawkins a Heisman campaign. Then, why can’t the Tide get its CB #28 Javier Arenas
S # 15 Brandon Taylor wonderfully talented WR Julio Jones involved? If the Tide can S #27 Justin Woodall
S #3 Chad Jones run this well, you’d think QB Greg McElroy would face S #4 Mark Barron
CB #7 Patrick Peterson nothing but eight men in the box opening the middle of the CB #3 Kareem Jackson
field for Jones to “go deep”. But, Jones hasn’t gotten deep at
all this season, but if LSU decides it needs an extra defender to
stop Ingram, then Jones HAS to be a factor deep down field.
Conclusion - So, I put this one in the Harris computer this week and every iteration keeps coming up Alabama. Home game.
Two weeks to prepare. Nick Saban vs. Les Miles. All the advantages seem to point to the Crimson. Plus, in an SEC battle like
this, it’s quite simple - the team that runs the ball most effectively wins the game. Yes, I know that the SEC has more spread
teams than ever before, but these teams are not. If Charles Scott controls the game, LSU wins. He won’t. When Ingram does,
Alabama wins in a typical SEC slugfest.
Alabama - 19 vs. LSU - 13
 Ohio State (7-2) vs. Penn State (8-1)
2009 Schedule
W, Navy 31-27
L, USC 15-18
W, Toledo 38-0
W, Illinois 30-0
W, @ Indiana 33-14
W, Wisconsin 31-13
W, @ Purdue 18-26
W, Minnesota 38-7
W, NMSU 45-0
11/7 @ Penn State
Projected Starting Lineups
Offense
QB #2 Terrelle Pryor
RB #3 Brandon Saine
FB #44 Zach Boren
TE #86 Jake Ballard
WR #8 Devier Posey
WR #12 Dane Sanzenbacher
T #64 Jim Cordle
G #65 Justin Boren
C #50 Michael Brewster
G #70 Bryant Browning
T #76 J.B. Shugarts
Defense
DE #90 Thaddeus Gibson
DT #84 Doug Worthington
DT #92 Todd Denlinger
DE #97 Cameron Heyward
LB #51 Ross Homan
LB #38 Austin Spitler
LB #36 Brian Rolle
CB #10 Devon Torrence
S #4 Kurt Coleman
S #21 Anderson Russell
CB #5 Chimdi Chekwa
Conclusion - In the summer when I was doing my college preview, I flip flopped on this game a hundred times to determine
which team should be ranked above the other in my top 25. I settled on Penn State, in part because the game is in State College.
But, I kept thinking if Terrelle Pryor makes the improvement I expected, then I might change that thought by game week. He
hasn’t and I think his inability to throw accurately down the field on third down will be OSU’s death knell. Daryll Clark will show
him how it’s done.
November 7, 2009 - ABC 2:30 PM CST
Vegas Says: PSU -3.5 / 40
R 2009 Ranking
186.6 ypg - 29th Run Offense 182.0 ypg - 33rd
189.6 ypg - 94th Pass Offense 247.1 ypg - 34th
376.1 ypg - 63rd Total Offense 429.1 ypg - 24th
2009 Schedule
31.0 ppg - 29th Scoring Offense 30.7 ppg - 33rd W, Akron 31-7
W, Syracuse 28-7
86.4 ypg - 6th Run Defense 84.1 ypg - 5th W, Temple 31-6
L, Iowa 10-21
173.6 ypg - 14th Pass Defense 170.7 ypg - 12th W, @ Illinois 35-17
W, Eastern Illinois 52-3
260.0 ypg - 6th Total Defense 254.8 ypg - 5th W, Minnesota 20-0
W, @ Michigan 35-10
11.7 ppg - 6th Scoring Defense 9.3 ppg - 1st W, @ Northwestern 34-13
11/7 Ohio State
Keys to the Game
Kafka, Pryor, same thing, right? - Last week, the
Penn State defense probably had its most stern test facing, of Projected Starting Lineups
all teams and quarterbacks, Northwestern’s Mike Kafka. The Offense
Wildcats stayed competitive and had the Nits off balance QB #17 Daryll Clark
throughout the game with a series of quick bubble screens, RB #22 Evan Royster
short passing game and a few scrambles/designed runs. Then, WR #6 Derek Moye
he went out of the game with an injury and Penn State WR #5 Graham Zug
controlled the game the rest of the way. Now, Terrelle Pryor is WR #2 Chaz Powell
NOT the quarterback that Kafka is, but he’s got enough in the TE #10 Andrew Qualess
arsenal to put the Nits on their heels. The Ohio State offense T #73 Dennis Landolt
likes to get the ball quickly to Devier Posey on quick screens G #74 Johnnie Troutman
and Pryor has the ability to scramble with the best of them. C #61 Stefan Wisniewski
Duh. But, if Penn State can take away his short throws and G #77 Lou Eliades
spy on him with one of its great linebackers, Pryor will have to T #79 Ako Poti
throw down field and that hasn’t been a good proposition for
the Buckeye offense at all this season (see Purdue game). The Defense
good thing for Ohio State is that it has the blueprint to move DE #5 Jerome Hayes
the ball and score against the number one scoring defense, but DT #91 Jared Odrick
does it have the signal caller to do it? Good question. DT #85 Ollie Ogbu
DE #81 Jack Crawford
It’s ERT...that’s Evan Royster Time - With all of LB #11 Navorro Bowman
this talk about the Heisman Trophy and the ‘open race’ for the LB #45 Sean Lee
Trophy, is it possible that if Evan Royster blows up he can LB #43 Josh Hull
enter that race? Well, maybe not, but I do think the key for CB #1 A.J. Wallace
the Nits is to get him involved early and often. Not just S #28 Drew Astorino
pounding between the tackles, but by lining up in the slot as a S #18 Nick Sukay
receiver, he can put the Ohio State linebackers in a world of CB #8 D’Anton Lynn
hurt. They’ve not used him there as much lately, but this game
it might be the one wrinkle that can change the game for PSU.
Penn State - 17 vs. Ohio State - 13
HOUSTON (7-1) VS. TULSA (4-4)
VEGAS SAYS: TU -1 / 67.5
November 7, 2009 CBS CSTV 2:30 PM CST
70-30 has probably been burned in the brain of every
Tulsa Golden Hurricane player this week. 70-30. 70-30.
It got ugly last year and it didn’t sit well with Tulsa head
coach Todd Graham, to the point that he barely shook
hands with Houston head coach Kevin Sumlin at the
end of the game.
But, these are two different teams and it’s a Tulsa team
that has struggled lately, in particular in a two
touchdown loss to SMU 27-13. Houston, on the other
USC (6-2) VS. ARIZONA STATE (4-4)
VEGAS SAYS: USC -10.5 / 45.5
November 7, 2009 ABC 7 PM CST
When was the last time USC had two losses at this time
in the season? You’re right if you guessed 2002, the last
time USC didn’t play in the Rose Bowl or for the
National Championship. Now, it’s one thing to lose two
games, it’s quite another to get rolled by Oregon and
give up over 600 yards of total offense.
The Sun Devils haven’t been the model of consistency
over these past eight games, either. The Sun Devils
pulled out the impossible victory over Washington, but
then got beat at home by a vulnerable Cal squad.
FLORIDA STATE (4-4) VS. CLEMSON (5-3)
VEGAS SAYS: CU -8.5 / 58
November 7, 2009 ESPN 6:45 PM CST
Well, it’s not the Bowden Bowl anymore, that’s about
the only thing I can tell you for sure about this game.
Other than that, I’ve got nothing. No two teams have
been as up and down as the Seminoles and the Tigers.
Just when it appeared that the Seminoles season was
headed down the tubes in a “3-9 sort of way”, QB
Christian Ponder turn up the volume and led the Noles
to two huges wins over UNC on the road and NC State
last week. He didn’t get much help from his defense,
though and that’s what worries me the most.
OKLAHOMA (5-3) VS. NEBRASKA (5-3)
VEGAS SAYS: OU -5.5 / 42.5
November 7, 2009 ABC 7 PM CST
Ahhhh, old school. Just like back in the day. Keith
Jackson. Mike Rozier. Turner Gill. Eric Crouch.
Brian Bosworth. The names just roll off the tongue.
Well, what about Niles Paul, Dejuan Miller, Landry
Jones and Jared Crick? Not household names just yet?
Or as remembered as the previous set of names? No,
but each one will play a crucial role in this matchup.
However, each one actually will play a secondary role to
the matchup of Rotary Lombardi Award semi-finalists
OU’s Gerald McCoy and NU’s Ndamukong Suh.
hand, has won three in a row since the loss to UTEP,
including last week’s win over USM 50-43.
Tulsa’s key is to slow down the Coug ‘O’ with a
traditional offensive game plan. The up-tempo attack
that has been a staple for the TU offense can’t operate
at full speed. That just plays into the hands of the U of
H offense - a unit that wants to run 100 plays. Even at
a snail’s pace, I don’t think it’ll matter. Cougs win.
PREDICTION: Houston - 49 vs. Tulsa - 41
Arizona State, unfortunately, doesn’t have the horses in
the running game to take advantage of the USC
defense. Jacquizz Rodgers ran for over 100 yards in
only three quarters and the entire Ducks running backs
roster crushed the Trojan front seven. It’s become the
Trojans’ achilles heel.
ASU can’t drive a stake through that heel. Expect USC
QB Matt Barkley to riddle the ASU secondary in a
much needed convincing USC win.
PREDICTION: USC - 35 vs. Arizona State - 16
Clemson has had the week to get healthy and rested,
and RB/KR CJ Spiller needed that rest more than most
after his sublime performance down in Miami. Okay,
yes, it was Coastal Carolina, but you get the point.
Clemson’s defense didn’t fare well with the heat and
humidity in Miami, but back home, I expect them to
get a serious pass rush on Ponder, who is also banged up
as of press time, and force him into a couple of TOs in a
Clemson win.
PREDICTION: Clemson - 35 vs. FSU - 27
The two won’t battle one another, but each one holds
the key to a win. One of these teams has to be able to
run the ball to win this game. Paul (NU) and Miller
(OU) can make plays on the perimeter, but one of the
running games must emerge. Good luck, because that
means effectively blocking these two stalwarts. I think
OU will eventually find its way on the ground, well,
enough so to win this game. Suh and Crick will keep
the NU defense in it, but in the end, OU wins close.
PREDICTION: OU- 27 vs. NU - 24
 PREDICTIONS ON ALL D1A GAMES - TV GAMES IN RED
Thursday, November 5th
Virginia Tech at East Carolina 6:30 PM ESPN - Virginia Tech - 27 vs. ECU - 24

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois 6:30 PM ESPNU - NIU - 31 vs. EMU - 27

Miami Ohio at Temple 6:30 p.m. ESPN 360 - Temple - 34 vs. Roethlisberger U - 21

Friday, November 6th

Boise State at Louisiana Tech 7 PM ESPN2 - Boise State - 34 vs. La. Tech - 31

Saturday, November 7th

BYU at Wyoming 1 PM The Mtn. - BYU - 31 vs. Wyoming - 30

Navy at Notre Dame 1:30 PM NBC - Notre Dame - 38 vs. Navy - 21

Army at Air Force 2:30 PM CBS CSTV - Air Force - 31 vs. Army - 17

TCU at San Diego State 3:00 PM Vs. - TCU - 35 vs. SDSU - 10

New Mexico at Utah 5:00 PM The Mtn. - Utah - 49 vs. New Mexico - 10

Colorado State at UNLV 9 PM The Mtn. - UNLV - 28 vs. CSU - 24

Baylor at Missouri - Missouri - 28 vs. Baylor - 13

Central Florida at Texas 11 am FSN - Texas - 49 vs. UCF - 13

Connecticut at Cincinnati 7 PM ABC - Cincinnati - 31 vs. U Conn - 18

Duke at North Carolina 2:30 PM ESPNU - UNC - 34 vs. Duke - 31

Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky 12 PM ESPN GP - Kentucky - ALOT vs. EKU - little

Florida Atlantic at UAB - UAB - 37 vs. FAU - 31

Washington at UCLA 2:30 FCS Pacific - Washington - 21 vs. UCLA - 20

Washington State at Arizona 5 PM FCS Pacific - Arizona - 51 vs. WSU - 14

Western Michigan at Michigan State 11 am Big Ten Network - MSU - 45 vs. WMU - 28

Wisconsin at Indiana 11 am Big Ten Network - Wisconsin - 31 vs. Indiana - 16

FIU at MTSU 3:30 PM ESPN GP - MTSU - 28 vs. FIU - 24

 PREDICTIONS ON ALL D1A GAMES - TV GAMES IN RED
Saturday November 7th (CONT’D)
Fresno State at Idaho 9:30 PM ESPNU - Fresno State - 31 vs. Idaho - 28

Furman at Auburn 12:30 PM ESPN GP - Auburn - 63 vs. Furman - 2

Illinois at Minnesota 11 am Big Ten Network - Minnesota - 27 vs. lllinois - 24

Kansas at Kansas State 11:30 PM Vs. - Kansas - 35 vs. KSU - 34

Kent State at Akron 2:30 PM ESPN GP - Akron - 31 vs. Kent State - 28

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas State 2:30 PM ESPN GP/CSS - ASU - 24 vs. ULL - 21

Louisiana-Monroe at North Texas - ULM - 38 vs. North Texas - 21

Louisville at West Virginia - WVU - 49 vs. Louisville - 21

Maryland at North Carolina State 12 PM ESPN 360 - NC State - 34 vs. Maryland - 21

Memphis at Tennessee 6 PM ESPNU - Tennessee - 34 vs. Memphis - 12

Northern Arizona at Ole Miss 6:30 PM ESPN GP/CSS - Ole Miss - 45 vs. NAU - 10

Northwestern at Iowa 11 am ESPN - Iowa - 38 vs. Northwestern - 15

Oklahoma State at Iowa State 2:30 PM ABC - Oklahoma State - 34 vs. Iowa State - 14

Oregon at Stanford 2:30 PM FSN - Oregon - 38 vs. Stanford - 17

Oregon State at California 6 PM FSN - Oregon State - 30 vs. Cal - 28

Purdue at Michigan 11 am Big Ten Network - Michigan - 31 vs. Purdue - 21

Rice at SMU - SMU - 42 vs. Rice - 27

South Carolina at Arkansas 11:21 am ESPN GP/SEC Network - Arkansas - 27 vs. South Carolina - 23

Syracuse at Pittsburgh 11 am ESPNU - Pitt - 49 vs. Syracuse - 14

Tennessee Tech at Georgia 12 ESPN GP - Georgia - 54 vs. TT - 3

Texas A&M at Colorado 12:30 PM FCS Central - TAMU - 38 vs. CU - 35

Troy at Western Kentucky - Troy - 34 vs. WKU - 7

Utah State at Hawaii - Utah State - 31 vs. Hawaii - 29

UTEP at Tulane 2:30 PM FCS Atlantic - Tulane - 34 vs. UTEP - 33

Vanderbilt at Florida 6:15 PM ESPN2 - Florida - 42 vs. Vanderbilt - 7

 PREDICTIONS ON ALL D1A GAMES - TV GAMES IN RED
Saturday November 7th (CONT’D)
Virginia at Miami 11 am Raycom/ESPN GP - Miami - 35 vs. Virginia - 10

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech 2:30 PM ABC - Georgia Tech - 35 vs. Wake Forest - 17

Sunday November 8th

Nevada at San Jose State 7:30 PM ESPN - Nevada - 42 vs. SJSU - 17
 1560 The Game is a
proud sponsor of both
the Rotary Lombardi
Award, given annually
to the most
outstanding interior lineman in the
nation, and the Paul Bear Bryant Award
given for the Coach of the Year. Here is
my “unofficial leaderboard” for each
award. For more info. on each award -
www.rotarylombardiaward.org and
www.americanheart.org/bryantawards

The 12 semi-finalists are turning it up right about voting time, so it’s time to narrow the scope and follow
these players this week. Here are some thoughts about key matchups to watch this weekend.

1. Nebraska’s Ndamukong Suh and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy have a date with destiny. Let me just say
this won’t be the last time these two see each other. I’ve got a feeling that they’ll be with Sean and myself on
December 9th, but with a solid performance, one of them can separate from the other. McCoy is though to
have the better cast members, but Suh has done a little bit of everything and is now getting some ‘help’ from
Jared Crick. However, if Crick outshines Suh, then maybe it takes away from his candidacy. Either way,
voters tune in 7 PM Saturday night.

2. Alabama’s Terrence Cody and Rolando McClain have a 2:30 PM CST national stage to make a case. I
would think both are in the race for the final four and a solid performance against LSU is a must. Voters need
to not only look at the numbers in this one, especially on Cody against LSU’s G-C-G trio and McClain’s
versatility.

I love the way that this award is so fluid throughout the season. One win can bump you up into the
conversation and one loss can put you on the “also receiving votes” category. One guy who keeps making his
way into the conversation is Temple’s Al Golden. The Owls are bowl eligible for the first time in who
knows how long, undefeated in the MAC and now with an impressive win Navy last week. No matter what
happens throughout the rest of the season, Golden will have my vote, knowing where this program has been
the past few years...errr, decades. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz finds a way with his troops to keep getting wins.
Behind at the outset of the fourth quarter with his QB having thrown four picks in the third quarter, Ferentz
kept his Hawkeyes positive and kept them fighting in a come from behind win over Indiana. TCU’s Gary
Patterson should’ve been with us last year and he’ll be a lock this year. A win over UNLV wasn’t sexy but his
team keeps getting better and better...and still undefeated. Texas’s Mack Brown has his team on the rise,
playing its best football of the season, while Oregon’s Chip Kelly may have his name etched on the trophy
with how he’s gotten his team to respond after the opening night loss at Boise. The win over USC was proof
positive of his message - “One game does not make a season”. But, that one game will reverberate for months