18

th
European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering ESCAPE 18
Bertrand Braunschweig and Xavier Joulia Editors!
" #$$8 Elsevier B%&%'(td% All rights reserved%
Sensitivity analysis of a model for atmospheric
dispersion of toxic gases
)ishant Pandya*
a
Eric +arsden*
a
Pascal ,lo-uet*
.
)adine /a.as
.
a
Institut pour une Culture de Scurit Industrielle, 6 alle Emile Monso, BP 34038,
Toulouse 310!, Cede" 4, #rance
$
%a$oratoire de &nie C'imi(ue, ) rue Paulin Tala$ot, BP 1301, Toulouse 31106,
Cede" 1, #rance
Abstract
0e study the relative in1luence o1 uncertainty in input parameters o1 an atmospheric
dispersion model on the variation o1 the outputs% Sensitivity indices are calculated using
the ,AS2 and So.ol3 methods on a passive gas dispersion scenario* using the P4AS2
tool% 0e assess .oth the individual and coupled in1luence o1 parameters%
Keywords5 6ndustrial ris7* Sensitivity analysis* /as dispersion modelling
1. Introduction
8ecent changes to ,rench legislation concerning the prevention o1 technological and
natural ris7s re-uire industrial sites to calculate the sa1ety perimeters 1or di11erent
accident scenarios* .ased on a detailed pro.a.ilistic ris7 assessment% 6t is important that
sa1ety perimeters .e .ased on the .est scienti1ic 7nowledge availa.le* and that the level
o1 uncertainty .e minimised% A signi1icant contri.ution to the calculation o1 the sa1ety
9ones comes 1rom the modelling o1 atmospheric dispersion* particularly o1 the
accidental release o1 to:ic products%
;ne o1 the most widely used tools 1or dispersion modelling in several European
countries is P4AS2< =)& So1tware* >?!% 2his so1tware application is -uite 1le:i.le*
allowing the user to customi9e values 1or a wide range o1 model parameters% >sers o1
the so1tware have 1ound that simulation results may depend -uite strongly on the values
chosen 1or some o1 these parameters% 0hile this 1le:i.ility is use1ul* it can lead di11erent
users to calculate e11ect distances that vary considera.ly even when studying the same
scenario CCPS* 1@@A!%
Sensitivity analysis techni-ues can .e used to measure the e11ect on the variation in the
model output due to variation in input parameters% Several sensitivity analysis SA!
methods e:ist* including oneBatBaBtime ;A2! method* 1ractional e:periments*
di11erential analysis* ,ourier Amplitude Sensitivity 2est ,AS2! and So.ol3% Several
sensitivity analysis o1 various dispersion so1tware tools have .een carried out using
;A2 method Bu..ico and +a99arotta* #$$CD =)&* #$$AD )air et al%* 1@@C!%
2he o.Eective o1 this study is to carry out a sensitivity analysis o1 P4AS2 dispersion
modelling using glo.al methods such as ,AS2 and So.ol3% 0e have developed a
methodology and applied it to a case study o1 a gas passive dispersion scenario%
# *+ Pand,a et al+
2. Software tools
+1+ P-.ST
P4AS2 Process 4a9ard Analysis So1tware 2ool! is a comprehensive conse-uence
analysis tool% 6t e:amines the process o1 a potential incident 1rom the initial release to
1ar 1ield dispersion* including modelling o1 pool vaporisation and evaporation* and
1lamma.le and to:ic e11ects% P4AS2 is a.le to simulate various release scenarios such
as lea7s* line ruptures* long pipeline releases and tan7 roo1 collapse in pressurised ' unB
pressurised vessels or pipes% 2hese source terms are com.ined with the P4AS2
dispersion model called >=+ >ni1ied =ispersion +odel! =)&* #$$F! to o.tain
desired conse-uence results5 i! cloud .ehaviour ii! transition through various stages
such as Eet phase* heavy phase* transition phase and passive dispersion phase* iii!
distance to ha9ardous concentration o1 interest and iv! 1ootprint o1 the cloud at a given
time%
P4AS2 release and dispersion models are also availa.le in the 1orm o1 an E:cel
inter1ace* called +=E /eneric Spreadsheets<% Sensitivity studies can .e easily carried
out using these Spreadsheets* since they allow direct control o1 input parameters and
output results* easy parameter variation and multiple runs simultaneous simulation o1
various scenarios!% P4AS2 v%A%FG has .een used in this wor7%
++ Sim%a$
Sim(a. Simulation (a.oratory 1or >ncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis! is a so1tware
tool J8C* 6taly* #$$A! designed 1or +onte Carlo +C! analysis that is .ased on
per1orming multiple model evaluations with pro.a.ilistically selected model input% 2he
results o1 these evaluations are used to determine 1! the uncertainty in model predictions
and #! the input varia.les that give rise to this uncertainty%
Sim(a. generates a sample o1 points .ased on the range and distri.ution o1 each input
parameter speci1ied .y the user% ,or each element o1 the sample* a set o1 model outputs
is produced .y evaluating an internal or e:ternal model% 6n essence* these model
evaluations create a mapping 1rom the space o1 the inputs to the space o1 the results%
2his mapping is the .asis 1or su.se-uent uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to calculate
various sensitivity indices%
3. Sensitivity analysis (SA)
SA is the study o1 how the variation in the output o1 a model can .e apportioned*
-uantitatively or -ualitatively* to variation in the model parameters Saltelli et al%*
#$$H!% Saltelli #$$H! proposes one possi.le way o1 grouping these methods into three
classes5 screening methods* local SA methods and glo.al SA methods%
3+1+ Screenin/ met'ods
2hey are use1ul 1or models which are computationally e:pensive to evaluate and'or
have a large num.er o1 input parameters% &arious strategies and methods have .een
discussed in several articles with illustrative e:amples5 Bettonvil and ?leiEnen* 1@@CD
Campolongo and Braddoc7* 1@@@D =eana and (ewis* #$$#D +orris* #$$A%
3++ %ocal S. met'ods
(ocal SA methods provide the slope o1 the calculated model output in the parameter
space at a given set o1 values 2urInyi and 8a.it9* #$$H!% 4owever* local sensitivity
analysis can only inspect one point at a time and the sensitivity inde: o1 a speci1ic
parameter dependent on the central values o1 the other parameters% 2hus* more studies
are currently using glo.al SA methods instead o1 local SA ones Xu and /ertner*
#$$Ca!%
Sensiti0it, anal,sis o1 a model 1or atmosp'eric dispersion o1 to"ic /ases G
3+3+ &lo$al S. met'ods
/lo.al SA techni-ues incorporate the whole range o1 variation and the pro.a.ility
density 1unction o1 the input parameters to calculate their in1luence on the output% +any
glo.al sensitivity analysis techni-ues are now availa.le* such as ,ourier Amplitude
Sensitivity 2est ,AS2! Saltelli et al%* #$$FD Xu and /ertner* #$$Ca!* regressionB.ased
methods 4elton et al%* #$$F! and So.ol3s method So.ol3* 1@@G!% A survey o1
samplingB.ased methods has .een presented .y 4elton et al% #$$A!% +ost o1 the glo.al
methods* such as ,AS2 and So.ol3 rely on the assumption o1 parameter independence
Xu and /ertner* #$$C.!%
2he -uantitative measure o1 sensitivity is represented .y Sensiti0it, Indices% 2he 1irstB
order sensitivity inde:* Si o1 an input 1actor pi is the measure o1 the main direct! e11ect
o1 pi on the output variance% SiE where i J E!* the secondBorder sensitivity indices*
measures the interaction e11ect o1 pi and pE on the output variance% ;ther higherBorder
indices are de1ined in the same manner% 2he total sensitivity inde:* S2i is the sum o1 all
sensitivity indices involving 1actor pi 4omma and Saltelli* 1@@A!% ,or e:ample* the
total sensitivity inde: o1 1actor 1* S21 1or a model with G input 1actors is given as5
S21 K S1 L S1# L S1G L S1#G
2otal indices are especially suited to apportion the model output variation to the input
1actors in a comprehensive manner% 2he ,AS2 method calculates the 1irstBorder and
total sensitivity indices* whereas So.ol3 method* in addition to these* also provides all
higherBorder sensitivity indices to determine -uantitatively the interaction .etween
parameters% But with So.ol3* as num.er o1 indices to .e calculated is very high*
computational cost and calculation time go high%
2he 1irstBorder Si! and total S2i! indices can .e interpreted as 1ollowing5
S2i high5 pi is an in1luent parameter
Si and S2i .oth small5 pi is not an in1luent parameter neither alone nor in interaction
with other parameters!
Si and S2i nearly the same5 no interaction o1 pi with other parameter
Si and S2i very di11erent5 high interaction o1 pi with other parameter
4. Methodoloy
0e have developed a method to carry out sensitivity studies .y lin7ing P4AS2
Spreadsheet and Sim(a.% ;ur method comprises o1 si: steps* as shown in the ,ig% 1%
5 2he description o1 input parameters de1ined .y the user is sent to Sim(a.%
5 2he set o1 sample element created .y Sim(a. is saved in the controller%
and 5 ,or each element o1 the sample* P4AS2 calculates the output* which is sent
to the controller%
2he set o1 P4AS2 outputs is trans1erred to Sim(a.%
Depending on the selected sensitivity analysis method ,AS2 or So.ol3!* Sim(a.
calculates various sensitivity indices 1
st
order* #
nd
order* M* 2otal order!%
H *+ Pand,a et al+
,igure 15 +ethodology 1or sensitivity analysis
!. "ase Study
0e have studied a scenario o1 passive dispersion o1 air as a pollutant! in the
atmosphere% 2he .ase case is de1ined as a continuous release in the 1ollowing
conditions5 duration o1 GA$ $$$ s* release rate $%$F 7g's* release height F$ m*
temperature #@8 ? and release velocity F m's% 2he am.ient conditions are5 Pas-uill
sta.ility class =* wind speed F m's* temperature #@8 ?* solar 1lu: F$$ 0'm
#
* molecular
weight #8%@AA* logarithmic temperature and linear pressure pro1iles% =ispersion is
considered over land5 dry soil* temperature #@8 ? and sur1ace roughness o1 $%1 m%
Averaging time is set to A$$ s% 2his case study can .e calculated analytically .y 2);
passive dispersion e-uation =uEim et al%* 1@@A!%
6n order to choose the relevant model outputs* the concentration pro1ile o1 pollutant at
the ground level as a 1unction o1 the downwind distance 1rom the release point is
calculated with P4AS2 1or the .ase case as shown in ,igure #%
2he 1ollowing model outputs are considered 1or the analysis5
;utput 1% /round level concentration at #$$ m downwind distance
;utput #% /round level concentration at 1$ $$$ m downwind distance
;utput G% +a:imum downwind distance at the ground level concentration o1 $%1 ppm
;utput H% =ownwind distance at which highest ground level concentration is o.served
;utput F% +a:imum crosswind distance at the ground level concentration o1 $%1 ppm
,ig% # shows relative good agreement .etween analytical and P4AS2 results%
2he description o1 the independent input parameters is given in 2a.le 1% 2he values o1
remaining parameters are 7ept constant as de1ined in the .ase case%
2a.le 15 6nput Parameters
Parameters 2ype o1 distri.ution Parameter range >nit
+in +a:
N$ 4eight o1 release Continuous uni1orm $ C$$ m
O 8elease rate Continuous uni1orm $%$$F F$ 7g's
ua 0ind speed Continuous uni1orm 1 11 m's
tav Averaging time Continuous uni1orm 18%CF GA$$ s
N8 Sur1ace roughness =iscrete uni1orm $%$$$1D $%$$1D $%$1D $%1D 1D G m
,igure #5 /round level concentration vs% downwind distance 1or the .ase case
E:periment
controller
P4AS2
Sim(a.

Sensiti0it, anal,sis o1 a model 1or atmosp'eric dispersion o1 to"ic /ases F

#. $esults and discussion
,or each output* the o.Eective o1 the ,AS2 glo.al analysis is to determine which
parameters are in1luent'nonBin1luent* to appreciate the relative in1luence o1 parameters
and to assess -ualitatively interaction .etween parameters% 2a.le # shows the results o1
,AS2 method with sample si9e o1 1$$ $$$ points%
2a.le #5 ,AS2 sensitivity analysis results
9$ tav 9r O ua
Si S2i Si S2i Si S2i Si S2i Si S2i
;utput1 $%$F
H
$%88
1
$%$$
1
$%$@
C
$ $%18
#
$%$$
G
$%#C
C
$%$$
A
$%GA
C
;utput# $%#C
A
$%AF
8
$%1A
1
$%1$
G
$ $%$@
8
$%1$
F
$%GF
1
$%1C
G
$%H@
A
;utputG $%$$
F
$%##
A
$%$$
@
$%G$
H
$%$$
H
$%G$
F
$%#8
G
$%8C
@
$%$A
C
$%A1
C
;utputH $%CC
#
$%8G
F
$ $%$$
A
$%1A
G
$%##
@
$ $%$$
A
$ $%$$
C
;utputF $%$G
1
$%F@
F
$%$$
1
$%#8
#
$%$$
#
$%GG
1
$%#8
F
$%8@
@
$%$$
@
$%H@
A
2he interpretation o1 the a.ove results is summarised in 2a.le G%
2a.le G5 6nterpretation o1 ,AS2 sensitivity analysis results
;utputs 6n1luent parameters in
decreasing order
6nteraction .etween
parameters
;utput1 N$* O* ua N$* O* ua
;utput# N$* O* ua N$* O* ua
;utputG O* ua O* N$* ua
;utputH N$ B
;utputF O* Nr O* N$* ua
So.ol3 method is used to determine -uantitatively the interaction .etween parameters%
As an e:ample* ,ig% G shows a pie chart o1 all higherBorder sensitivity indices relative to
N$ 1or the output C at #$$m%
Z0
39%
Z0 tav
1%
Z0 ZR
6% Z0 Q
12%
Z0 ua
23%
Z0 tav Q
2%
Z0 tav ZR
0%
Z0 tav ua
3%
Z0 ZR ua
0%
Z0 ZR Q
0%
Z0 Q ua
10%
Z0 tav ZR ua
0%
Z0 tav ZR Q
0%
Z0 tav Q ua
3%
Z0 tav ZR Q ua
0%
Z0 ZR Q ua
1%
,igure G5 Sensitivity analysis results o1 S;B;(3 1or model output C at #$$m and related to input
1actor 8elease height* N$
A *+ Pand,a et al+
,ig% G shows that 8F percentage o1 total sensitivity inde: o1 release height is composed
o1 G@P main e11ect o1 N$* #GP interaction e11ect .etween N$ and ua* 1# P interaction
e11ect .etween N$ and O and 1$P interaction e11ect o1 N$* O and ua%
2he main pro.lems encountered in this wor7 were5 i! very long computational time and
ii! a.sence o1 P4AS2 output 1or some o1 the sample elements 1or outputG and
outputF!%
%. "onclusion
0e have developed a method to carry out sensitivity analysis o1 P4AS2 dispersion
model and applied it to a passive gas dispersion scenario% 6n 1urther wor7* we shall
apply it to more comple: dispersion scenarios% 4owever* the treatment o1 dependent
input parameters shall re-uire modi1ication in the sampling procedure%
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Campolongo* ,%* Braddoc7* 8% 1@@@!% 2he use o1 graph theory in the sensitivity analysis o1 the
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