A new book by a former litigator at Kirkland & Ellis, one of the nations largest law firms, has

delivered a frisson to the already rattled legal profession. In The Lawyer Bubble: A Profession in
Crisis, Steven J. Harper argues that legal jobs are disappearing not because of short-term economic
fluctuations but because of powerful long-term trends. The word bubble is an overstatement it is
hard to believe that the legal profession will end in the sort of high-speed implosion that subprime
mortgages did. But the legal profession is facing some fundamental changes, and Harper deserves
credit for sounding the alarm.
Harper begins his case with a basic and troubling set of facts: roughly 45,000 law students graduate
each year with an average of more than $100,000 in debt and only about half of them will find
long-term, full-time jobs that require a legal degree. Even for graduates who get law jobs, he argues,
the legal world is changing fast. Law firms that once prized professionalism and collegiality, he says,
are increasingly operating like typical bean-counting businesses. And many law graduates are finding
work only as contract attorneys, which often means doing document-review drudgery for low pay.
The decline in the market for lawyers is being driven by an array of forces. For some time now, but
particularly since the economic downturn of 2008, corporate clients have been less willing to sign off
on hefty legal bills. They have increasingly been balking at the top hourly rates of $1,000 that some
partners charge and at costly expenses, ranging from air travel to sushi dinners to copying charges.
And as a result of globalization, an increasing share of American legal work particularly more by-
the-numbers assignments, like document review is being shipped overseas. Lawyers in India and
other lower-wage markets are willing to do the work for a fraction of what American law firms would
charge. Taking away even more of this work: newly sophisticated legal software that can do
document review and other tasks for which lawyers were once needed.
The legal market is without question soft these days. Last June, the Association for Legal Career
Professionals released a grim placement report stating that only 65.4% of law-school graduates had
found jobs for which it was necessary to pass a state bar exam down from 74.7% in 2008. And the
Internet is full of first-hand accounts of law-school graduates who say that their law degree has not
helped them get a law job and, worse still, those who report that their degree has actually hurt
their job prospects, since some employers now tell them they are overqualified for nonlegal
positions.
Harper, who retired as a partner in 2008, argues that the professions leaders are a big part of the
problem. He contends that big-firm managers are too focused on maximizing profits for the biggest,
most rainmaking partners at the expense of junior lawyers and the long-term interest of the firm.
And he faults law-school deans for putting the interests and salaries of law professors ahead of the
interests of their underemployed, debt-laden students.
Harpers book has been warmly received in many parts of the mainstream media and the
blogosphere, but the professions defenders have also been speaking out. Writing in the Wall Street
Journal recently, New York University law professor Richard Epstein accuses Harper of giving
undue attention to a few big law firms that have gone belly-up in recent years and ignoring that
the vast majority of big law firms have avoided this grisly fate. And he takes umbrage at Harpers
broadsides at legal education, insisting that the sort of sophisticated and costly doctrinal training law
schools provide is needed now more than ever.
It also helps that the number of new lawyers may finally be starting to decline. Applications to law
schools are down sharply plunging 38% just since 2010 hitting a 30-year low. To keep the
quality of students from falling, law schools have been cutting class sizes, and there are predictions
that some of the weakest law schools may begin to shut down. Slowly, the supply of lawyers is likely
to dwindle toward the demand for lawyers.
Harpers big-picture argument is undoubtedly correct, and it is a real cause for concern. Bar
associations and legal academics have begun talking about how the profession should adapt
discussions that are long overdue. The biggest problem with The Lawyer Bubble is not the warning it
is sounding but its title; unlike tulips and other speculative bubbles in the past, lawyers will always
be a necessity not a fad. But then, The Very, Very Challenging Job Market for Lawyers doesnt have
the same ring to it.