NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY

Rain and Flood Potential Update

Briefing #3
May 15th, 2014 3:00 PM


Jim Brewster & Erik Heden, Meteorologists
FOR CENTRAL NY
This area includes but is
not limited to cities such
as Syracuse, Utica,
Ithaca, Elmira,
Binghamton, and
Oneonta.
FOR NORTHEAST PA
This area includes but
is not limited to cities
such as Towanda,
Montrose, Scranton,
and Wilkes-Barre.
This Briefing applies to
the NWS Binghamton
Service Area only:
Summary
Flash Flood Watch in effect for all of Central New York
and northeast Pennsylvania. This Evening through
Friday Night.
Rain slowly moves into the Finger Lakes and Southern
Tier later this evening. Rain reaches I-81 toward sunrise
and then into the Catskills/Poconos during the day
Friday.
Widespread rain totals of 1 to 2 inches most
likely. Local amounts to 3+ inches possible in any
thunderstorms.
Small streams and creeks will be most vulnerable for
flooding. Flooding could become rapid and violent
(flashy) under any persistent heavy rain.
Most larger rivers will rise a few to several feet, but
should remain within their banks. A few quicker
responding headwater points could flood.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
as of 2 PM EDT Thu May 15
Flash Flood Watch this Evening through Late Friday
Night (begins earlier in western portions of NY/PA).

Rainfall Forecast
(Tonight through Friday Night)

Widespread 1 to 2 inches, with localized
amounts to 3 inches possible in thunderstorms.
River Status
Rivers and Lakes that could reach flood stage due to the rainfall.
Chance of Minor flooding: West Branch Delaware at Walton;
Chenango River at Sherburne; Cayuga Lake. Delta Lake.
Chance of Moderate flooding: Oneida Creek at Oneida.
Flood Impacts
and Probability Scenarios
Widespread 1 to 2 of rain over 12-18 hours expect:
The Most Likely Scenario
Minor water problems in typical flood prone areas.
Basements, low water crossings, storm drains.
Flash flooding possible in areas that have already seen heavy rain
or areas that see repeating rains.
Major rivers rise but most points stay BELOW flood stage. A few
headwater points may approach minor flood stage.
If widespread 2 to 3 of rain over 12-18 hours, then expect:
to bank full on the larger rivers.
Smaller rivers (headwaters) would see minor flooding.
Flash flood potential increases if this amount of heavy rain falls in
less than 6 hours.
Widespread 3 of rain or more is when significant stream and
river flood issues would begin.
Minor river flooding at most points. A few larger river points would
approach moderate flood stage.
Probability of this happening 10% or less.
What to expect next?
These ideas are based on forecast rainfall
and are subject to change for the better or
worse once the amount of rain fallen has
been observed.

We will have another briefing update with
latest information by around 6 AM Friday.
Monitor Conditions!
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