1

Solutions to MYCT H2 Math Paper 2 with markers comments

Qn Solutions
1 In a systematic sampling, all the users are assigned a unique number from 1 and
18500. A random number between 1 and 185 inclusive is chosen initially. This user is
chosen and the next 185
th
resident is chosen until 100 residents are chosen.

A stratified sampling gives a representative sample of the population as the opinions
of the game may differ according to age groups.
2 Let X be the random variable denoting the number of marks scored by a candidate.
If
2
(78.1,15.2 ) X N , then
P( 100) 0.0748 X > =
i.e. around 7.5% of the student cohort will score above 100 marks if the random variable X is
following a Normal distribution of mean 78.1 and std dev 15.2. This is unrealistic as students
cannot score more than 100 marks.
Since n is large, by CLT,
2
15.2
78.1,
60
X N



approximately.
P(80.0 85.0) 0.166 X < < =
3(i) p =35
P (a randomly chosen component is faulty)
=
( )( ) ( )( ) 0.35 0.08 0.65 0.05 +
=0.0605
3(ii) f(p) = P( component supplied by A / faulty )
=
P(faulty component supplied by A)
P(faulty)

=
( )
( ) ( )
0.08
100
0.08 0.05
100
p
+
p
100
p
100

=
0.08 0.08
0.08 5 0.05 0.03 5
p p
p p p
=
+ +
(shown)
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
'
2
2
0.03 5 0.08 0.08 0.03
f
0.03 5
0.4
0.03 5
p p
p
p
p
+
=
+
=
+

2
Qn Solutions
For 0 p 100 ,
( )
'
f p >0
as p increases,
( ) f p increases.

( ) f p is a strictly increasing function.
i.e. when the company buys a larger percentage of its electronic components from
supplier A, the probability of a randomly chosen faulty component is supplied by A
increases.
4(i) Using the symmetrical properties of the normal distribution,
The mean of the distribution =
150 250
200
2
+
=
Let X be the random variable denoting the mass of an orange sold in the supermarket.
2
(200, )
P( 250) 0.1
50
P( ) 0.1
50
1.28155 39.0
X N
X
Z

> =
> =
= =

4(ii) Let Y be the random variable denoting the total mass of a small bag.
Let W be the random variable denoting the total mass of a large bag.
2
1 2 1 2
2
1 2
(5(200),5(39 )) (1000,7605)
(2(1000),2(7605)) (2000,15210)
(10(200),10(39 )) (2000,15210)
(0,30420)
Y N Y N
Y Y N Y Y N
W N W N
Y Y W N

+ +

1 2 1 2
P(| | 300) P( 300 300) 0.915 Y Y W Y Y W + < = < + < =
4(iii)
1 2
1 2
0.001( ) (2,0.01521)
0.0012( ) (2.4,0.021902)
0.001( ) 0.0012( ) ( 0.4,0.037112)
Y Y N
W N
Y Y W N
+
+

1 2
P(0.001( ) 0.0012( ) 0) 0.981 Y Y W + < =
5 (a)(i) no. of arrangements =5! X 7! =604800
(ii)

no. of arrangements =
9
P
3

x 8! =20321280
3
Qn Solutions
(iii) No of ways of dividing the people into 3 groups of 3 and
1 group of 2
=
11 8 5 2
3 3 3 2
3!
C C C C
=15400
(b) Treat man and his wife as 1 unit.
arrange 4 units +3 elderly man +1 empty seat in a circle.

No of arrangements =(8-1)! X (2!)
4
=80640
6(i)












6(ii)








Let X be the mass of the component of the electrical product and be the mean mass
of the component.
To test H
0
: = 12
vs H
1
: 12
Since population variance is known and X follows a normal distribution, we use a Z-
test.
Test statistic , Z =
12
~ (0,1)
X
N
n

Use a 2-tailed test at 5% level, ie reject Ho if p <0.05
Using G.C. with 12.28 x = , n =60 ; =1.005 , p =0.0309 <0.05 .
We reject Ho and conclude that there is sufficient evidence at 5% level to dispute the
factory owners claim.
To test H
0
: = 12
vs H
1
: <12
Since sample size is small and population variance is unknown, we use a t-test.
Test statistic, T =
12
~ (19)
X
t
s
n

From the sample, n =20 , s
2
=
20
(1.03) 1.0842
19
=
For the owners claim to be accepted reject H
0

ie reject Ho if T <-1.729
4
Qn Solutions





6(iii)



12
1.729
1.0842
20
x
< x < 11.6 ( 3 s.f.)

For part (ii), the conclusion is to reject H
0
i.e. T
cal
will lie in the rejection region.

Since the population variance is said to be known and equals to s
2
. A Z-test will be
carried out and Z
cal
=T
cal
(since s = )





From the diagram, we can conclude that there is still sufficient evidence to support
the owners claim that the mean mass is less than 12 grams at 5% level of
significance.
Alternatively,
Z-test is to be used since population variance is known.
From part (ii),
cal
12
T = 1.729
20
x
s

< (to reject Ho)

Since s = ,
cal cal
12
= T 1.729
20
x
Z

= <
At 5% significance level,
c
Z 1.6448 =

cal
1.729 1.6448 Z < < ( to reject Ho)
There is still sufficient evidence to support the owners claim that the mean mass is
less than 12 grams at 5% level of signifance.
7(i) Let X be the number of telephone calls received by a call centre in a 4-min interval, ie X
~ Po(12).

P(X > 10 ) = 1 P(X 10) =0.653
N(0,1)
t(19)
5
Qn Solutions
7(ii) Let Y be no of calls received at the call centre in n seconds,
Y ~Po
3
60
n



, ie Y ~Po
20
n



Given P ( Y 1) <0.1

20
1 0.1
20
n
n
e

+ <



Sketch y =
20
1 0.1
20
x
x
e

+


.
From G.C., for y <0 x >77.8 x =78

The shortest length of time required =n =78 secs.
7(iii) Let W be the no of calls received at the call centre in a 10-hr interval , ie W ~Po
( 1800 )
Since =1800 >10 W ~N ( 1800, 1800 ) approx
P( W >1850 ) =P ( W >1850.5 ) by continuity correction
=0.11696 =0.117
7(iv) P(manpower shortage | busy day) =0.15
P(manpower shortage) =0.15 (0.11696) =0.017544
Let S be the no of days with manpower shortage in 30 randomly chosen working days of
10 hours , S ~B( 30, 0.017544)
P( S <2 ) =P(S 1) =0.903