Its Not the Cold War Yet

BY COLUM LYNCH-MAY 15, 2014

You could be forgiven for thinking the Cold War has returned with a vengeance,
what with the United States imposing sanctions on oscow and big!power envo"s like
Samantha #ower, the U$S$ ambassador to the United Nations, and her %ussian counterpart,
&ital" Churkin, regularl" hurling S"ria! and Ukraine!related insults at each other across the
horseshoe!shaped U$N$ Securit" Council table$
'ut while the United States has suspended some militar"!to!militar" cooperation e(ercises with
%ussia and has threatened to take steps designed to further isolate oscow on the world stage,
the former superpower rivals are finding wa"s to get along, working together to contain the
spread of nuclear weapons and terrorism from )ehran to )ashkent and collaborating on an
international campaign to halt mass atrocities in places like South Sudan$ *t the United
Nations, said one senior U$N$!based diplomat, +its business as usual, with the %ussians$ +)he"
have not tried to be more of a pain than usual,, he said$
In *pril, for instance, %ussia led an effort to hold up a Western!backed plan to impose
sanctions on former senior officials in the violence!stricken Central *frican %epublic, raising
concerns that oscow might be retaliating against the West for its stance on Ukraine$ 'ut
oscow dropped its ob-ections after receiving assurances from *frican governments that the"
backed the measure$
'arack .bamas administration and the government of %ussian strongman &ladimir #utin are
also continuing to cooperate on arguabl" the most important issue facing the United States and
its top allies/ Irans nuclear program$
0rench 0oreign inister 1aurent 0abius said this week that the ongoing talks designed to find a
diplomatic solution to the Iran crisis are difficult and have no guarantee of success, but stressed
that %ussia isnt holding up a deal, a point that was echoed b" senior U$S$ officials$
2Up to now, the difficult" we have with the %ussians 3over Ukraine4 and so on have no bearing
on the negotiations,2 0abius told a small gathering of *merican reporters over croissants, fruit
salad, and orange -uice at the Sofitel hotel in Washington on )uesda", a" 56$ 2We are
together$2
)he remarks came as the worlds great powers entered talks this week in &ienna on the fate of
Irans nuclear program that would see the United States and other countries 7 including %ussia
7 lift their crippling economic sanctions in e(change for )ehran dismantling large swaths of
its nuclear infrastructure and curtailing its 8uest for a bomb$
9espite earl" reports that a deal might be in sight, 0abius and other Western diplomats
cautioned that obstacles remain 7 for instance, there is no agreement on the scale of Irans
acceptable enrichment capabilit" 7 and that considerable work is still re8uired to guarantee
that an" final deal be implemented b" Iran$ 0abius said that the deal would need to include
measures that ensure Iranian compliance, claiming that Iran and North :orea have previousl"
backslid on pledges to scale back their nuclear programs$ )hat would re8uire that the
International *tomic ;nerg" *genc" be given far greater scrutin" over Irans nuclear program,
he said, and that an" easing of sanctions be reversible$ +We dont want to be trapped,, he said$
2I cannot make a forecast about the final outcome,2 he said$ If there were an agreement, 0abius
added, 2it would be at the last moment$2
0abius did not detail precisel" how oscow was being helpful in the closed!door negotiations,
but diplomats sa" that its decision not to do an"thing to undermine the talks has been helpful$
Western diplomats had e(pressed concerns that their confrontation with %ussia over Ukraine
might spill over into the Iran talks, complicating an alread" difficult negotiation process$ 0or
now, those worries have "et to materiali<e$ 9iplomats said the" were pleased that %ussia has
been privatel" and publicl" pressing both sides to close a deal$ 'efore the talks began this
week, %ussias chief negotiator, 9eput" 0oreign inister Sergei %"abkov, urged )ehran to be
fle(ible, encouraging its leadership to grant the Iranian negotiating team, headed b" Iranian
0oreign inister ohammad =avad >arif, sufficient authorit" to close a deal$ +We hope the
leadership in )ehran has given the entire delegation ? the instructions making it possible to
move forward,, he said$
)he cooperation reflects the importance Washington, oscow, and ke" ;uropean governments
place on preventing their diplomatic rifts over Ukraine and S"ria from spinning out of control
and undermining efforts to manage more critical crises in places like Iran and North :orea,
where their interests more closel" align$ +)here is tension and damage to the U$S$!%ussian
dialogue in a lot of areas but on some of the core issues the" continue to cooperate,, said 9ar"l
:imball, e(ecutive director of the *rms Control *ssociation$ +#reventing a nuclear!armed Iran
b" means of a comprehensive diplomatic deal is fundamentall" in %ussias interest, too$ )he"
are not going to lash out at the United States in wa"s that fundamentall" harm their interests$,
%ussias cooperation on Iran, however, does not e(tend to Ukraine and S"ria, issues on which
%ussia has shown no signs of reversing its anne(ation of Crimea and remains firml" in S"rian
#resident 'ashar al!*ssads camp$ If an"thing, %ussia has grown +more adamantl" pro!S"rian
than the" ever have been,, said one senior U$N$ diplomat, noting that oscow remains
committed to preventing the West from imposing penalties on the *ssad regime for blocking
humanitarian assistance to S"rian civilians$
U$S$ and other Western diplomats are carefull" e(amining %ussias diplomatic behavior for
signs that the diplomatic damage ma" spread$ .ne ;uropean diplomat noted that his
government is conducting a stud" to determine how much damage %ussia could inflict on the
international political and diplomatic s"stem if it decided to resort to the kind of blocking
diplomatic tactics it deplo"ed during the Cold War, a period marked b" diplomatic paral"sis at
the United Nations$
In recent "ears, U$S$ and %ussian diplomats have overcome their differences to work together
to resolve a wide range of problems that threaten their interests, including combating pirac" in
*frica, countering Islamic e(tremists 7 including al @aeda and the )aliban 7 from
*fghanistan to ali to S"ria, and putting out smaller!scale brush fires across the *frican
continent$ )he" have proved adept at absorbing the blows wrought b" big!power clashes over
the U$S$ invasion of Ira8, %ussias con8uest of two Aeorgian provinces, and its latest meddling
in Ukraine, where it has anne(ed the predominantl" %ussian!speaking peninsula of Crimea and
stirred up unrest in eastern Ukraine$
2)he striking thing about the Securit" Council in the post!Cold War period is that "ou have
these blowups, and the council, b" necessit", moves on,2 said 9avid 'osco, the author of
a book on the U$N$ Securit" Council and a 0oreign #olic" columnist$ +I think council members
have gotten 8uite good at compartmentali<ing$,
Still, 'osco said that %ussia, which has the power to veto Securit" Council actions, retains
considerable power to undermine U$S$!backed initiatives at the United Nations$ +If the" decide
to move this up a notch, the" could get in the wa" of an awful lot of stuff that the council does
without seriousl" damaging their own interests,, he said$
'ut oscow would pa" a heav" price if it tried to bring the international organi<ation to its
knees, not least because its power at the United Nations serves %ussian interests$ *s one of five
Securit" Council members with veto power, %ussia e(ercises enormous influence over the
U$N$s role in managing the worlds political crises$ 0or instance, %ussian
companies dominate the U$N$s B5 billion!a!"ear commercial aircraft leasing business,
suppl"ing U$N$ peacekeeping missions with transport planes and helicopters$ Shutting down
U$N$ peace operations would dr" up those contracts$ It would also alienate ke" constituencies,
particularl" *frican governments, that are keen to see an active U$N$ peacekeeping role$
If %ussia were looking to pla" the role of diplomatic spoiler, *frica provides a variet" of
potential targets$ )he United States and 0rance are currentl" spearheading efforts in the U$N$
Securit" Council to confront mass atrocities in several countries in *frica, including in the
Central *frican %epublic and South Sudan$
%ussia has also e(pressed disagreement with U$S$ efforts to impose sanctions on South Sudans
warring parties$ Speaking at a a" C Securit" Council meeting on South Sudan, a senior
%ussian diplomat, *le(ander #ankin, blasted Washington for coddling the pro!Western
government in South Sudan, even as it engaged in wide!scale atrocities$ De also dismissed calls
b" U$S$ diplomats, including Secretar" of State =ohn :err", to impose sanctions on South
Sudanese combatants, sa"ing the measures +never have been an effective instrument for
achieving political settlements to conflicts$,
2We must note that the current events in South Sudan are -ust the latest sad result of the fanciful
scheming of =ubas main partners, who have sought to hide the truth and cover up for their
stooges,2 he said$
9espite the tough rhetoric, U$N$ Securit" Council diplomats sa" that %ussia has actuall" been
open to considering Western and *frican proposals to send more peacekeepers to South Sudan
and to rewrite the U$N$s mandate so it can focus its energies more on protecting civilians than
supporting the South Sudanese governments institutions$ +I dont want to fi(ate on sanctionsE
there is a great deal of unanimit",, said one council diplomat$ +I dont think there are an" ma-or
divisions$,
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