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2014: Challenges & Opportunities

Air Commodore (R) Khalid Iqbal
Previous year was quite eventful for Pakistanindeed it was a year of transitions. General
election, formation of new federal and provincial governments, local bodies elections in
Baluchistan, change of President, retirement of top military commanders and the Chief Justice
of Pakistan in an orderly manner prompt to extrapolate that 2014 is a year of hope for
Pakistan. Though with these transitions, daunting challenges have not ceased to exist, they
have not even begun to recede, there is oozing popular will to overcome the difficulties.
As of now there is considerable chaos and daunting disorder. Poor performance in all
the sectors of Millennium Development Goals gives us fair degree of comparison as to where
we stand now and where we should have been or should be. Most of the problems which
affect our daily lives need a long term attention and imaginative approach; these are capital
intensive and would require mid-term course corrections. Some initiatives by the new
government have taken off well, a few were still born, yet another few have been re-railed as
they began to fizzle out. From the perspective of a man in the street, the economic crisis,
energy shortfall and law and order will outlive 2014.
Mother of all ills is bad economy leading to extremism, poor governance, energy
shortfall and so on. Circular debt is back with prolonged gas and power load-shedding
adding further chill to one of the harshest winters. Promise to ease the strain on domestic
consumers has evaporated into thin air and the industrial sector is in a state of paralysis. TAPI
and IP pipelines projects along side direct electricity purchase initiatives from neighbouring
countries do radiate a ray of hope, yet their materialization is years away.
On the first day of New Year, finance minister gave his part of the story; he certainly
needs to do more. Inflation, slide down of dollar, and budgetary deficit are some of the major
challenges. Three core drags on Pakistans economy are limited tax mobilization, loss
incurring Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs), and mounting domestic debt. Pakistan has not
been able to build a diversified economy. Growth prospects have drifted into long-term
decline. Successive governments have shown little stamina for reform. Uncoordinated
government intervention across the economy has compromised investment decisions. The
current IMF programme is a bold attempt to try and entrench economic reform. Militancy
continues to erode the confidence of domestic as well as foreign investor.
Process of negotiations with Taliban has proverbially taken the format of one step
forward and two backwards. Undeclared military action in North Waziristan has further
hindered the process of negotiations. Drone strikes continue, though at a much reduced
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frequency, yet sufficient to keep the issue of disruption of NATO supplies through KPK alive.
Key to future stability is that the national leadership should agree on a comprehensive counter
terrorism strategy and implement it with perseverance. Strategy should incorporate issues
such as economic rehabilitation of militants, de-radicalization and reconciliation programmes
in the militancy's core recruitment areas. Simultaneously, FATA should be integrated into
mainstream national politics. Moreover, there should be review of the policy to ensure good
neighbourly relations with India, Afghanistan and Iran. Though there has been significant
progress towards having sustainable working relations with India and Afghanistan, ties remain
fragile. The need for a continuous effort in this direction is paramount. Prime Minters vision for
peaceful neighbourhood needs a supporting strategy and a robust plan of action.

Sectarian conflict deepened in 2013 and there is little hope that it will change in 2014 unless
the state comes down hard on numerous contributing factorslike hate mongering and
financing of sectarian oufits. The minorities were targeted repeatedly and in most cases the
culprits are yet to be apprehended. Ratio of successful prosecutions under anti-terrorism
legislation is contemptuous. A viable policy and strategy must come to light as soon as
possible if we are to tackle this menace head on.

In the regional contest, by the middle of 2014, every country in South Asia will have held
elections within the time span of last one year. Bhutan, Iran, the Maldives, Nepal, and
Pakistan have already completed national elections in 2013, while Sri Lanka has held
important provincial elections. Afghanistan, India, and Bangladesh will select their next
governments in 2014. Once these electoral processes are done and complete, their outcome
will have implications on bilateral and multilateral relations within South Asia. Plus point shall
be that all governments will have long term dialogue partners to engage with and stabilize
bilateral and multi-lateral relations.

While it is extremely difficult to predict the outcome of Indias national elections, some
outcomes seem certain; the BJP will gain seats in parliament, and the Congress Party will lose
a significant number of them. Indian voters are likely to usher a new ruling coalition.
Phenomenon of meteoric rise of Aam Aadmi Party may impact the general elections as well.
Regardless of which parties form the next government, Indias foreign policy makers will prefer
continuity over change.

Bangladesh is in chaos. Whatever the outcome, 2014 elections would remain controversial
unlike the 2008 national elections. Bangladesh National Party (BNP) has boycotted the 2014
elections; national vote has taken place in a context of a deep political crisis and a climate of
political violence. BNP protested when a tribunal set up in 2009 sentenced to death several
leaders of Jamaat-i-Islami, which is a major ally of the BNP, those sentenced were accused of
having committed atrocities during the 1971 war. Hanging of one of such persons Abdul Qadir
Maullah has brought Pakistan-Bangladesh relations to a near a crisis situation. There is a
need to engage the post elections government and find a solution for those awaiting
implementation of death sentence; their repatriation to Pakistan is a viable option.

Afghanistan will see two critical transitions in 2014, national elections and the drawdown of
occupation forces. These two events are deeply intertwined. Outcome of elections and its
acceptability within and outside Afghanistan will shape the final stages of withdrawal process.
This will in turn quantify the post 2014 spill over of Afghanistans internal strife into Pakistan.
President Hamid Karzai seems to be demanding a free hand to manage the elections as a
precondition for signing a bilateral security agreement (BSA). Two million additional economic
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refugees are estimated to enter Pakistan if the BSA is signed without intra-Afghan
reconciliation; and if it is not signed, as many as 5 million economic and political refugees
could enter Pakistan and Afghan National Security Force(ANSF) may fall apart on ethno-
sectarian lines, hence pushing Afghanistan into a long lasting civil war.
Question remains whether Afghanistans elections will achieve even their most basic
functionselecting a legitimate executive authority. Yet even if these elections fall short of this
modest expectation, they are likely to be regarded as a landmark in the countrys democratic
transition process by an international community impatient to exit the Afghanistan. Even
though a functional political system may not guarantee stability; a dysfunctional and
illegitimate one will certainly send the country into chaos. After Afghanistan, the thirty-year
conflict has hurt Pakistan more than any other country. Playing favourites by Pakistan will only
fuel the conflict. Pakistan should reach out to all Afghan stake holders and own all of them.
Challenges confronting Pakistan are quite serious and these cannot be just wished
away. Herculean leadership and persistent effort by the state and society are prerequisite for a
turn around. The silver lining is that all three are eager to struggle for confronting the
challenges head on. So lets hope for the best.

Disclaimer:
Views expressed are those of writer and are not necessarily reflective of IPRI policy.

Carried by The Nation on January 06, 2014



Writer is Consultant Policy and Strategic Response at IPRI. Email:Khalid3408@gmail.com