Viral Marketing on Facebook

(How does viral saturation affect active user count)

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 Viral Marketing on Facebook
(How does viral saturation affect active user count)

As your app increases in usage and hits saturation, low retention rates can cause your app to "jump
the shark" - here's a simplified model showing how it happens
Andrew Chen (voodoo@gmail.com)
http://andrewchen.typepad.com/
Jeremy Liew (jeremy@lightspeedvp.com)
http://lsvp.wordpress.com/
3/9/2008
Distributed for free under GNU Free Documentation License - http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html

If you have questions, anything to add, or want to generally chat, don't hesitate to reach me at my
e-mail address, voodoo [at] gmail --Andrew Chen
 Simplified viral marketin
(with reduced conversion % as userbas
invite conversion rate % 10%
avg invites 8.00
initial user base 3,000
carrying capacity 100,000

time period saturation % conversion % (adj)

1 0% 10.0%
2 3% 9.7%
3 5% 9.5%
4 9% 9.1%
5 16% 8.4%
6 27% 7.3%
7 43% 5.7%
8 62% 3.8%
9 81% 1.9%
10 93% 0.7%
11 98% 0.2%
12 100% 0.0%
13 100% 0.0%
14 100% 0.0%
15 100% 0.0%
16 100% 0.0%
17 100% 0.0%
18 100% 0.0%
19 100% 0.0%
20 100% 0.0%

Cumulative user
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
Total users

55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row R
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1
Ti
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row R
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1
Ti
viral marketing model
onversion % as userbase saturates)

conversions / user new users cumulative users

3,000
0.78 2,328 5,328
0.76 4,035 9,363
0.73 6,789 16,153
0.67 10,835 26,987
0.58 15,763 42,751
0.46 19,580 62,330
0.30 18,784 81,114
0.15 12,255 93,369
0.05 4,953 98,322
0.01 1,320 99,642
0.00 285 99,927
0.00 58 99,985
0.00 12 99,997
0.00 2 99,999
0.00 0 100,000
0.00 0 100,000
0.00 0 100,000
0.00 0 100,000
0.00 0 100,000

Cumulative users over time

w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Time period
w Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row Row
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Time period
 Ac
(w

1 2 3 4 5
retention rate % 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
1 3,000 1,500 900 630 504
2 2,328 1,164 698 489
3 4,035 2,018 1,211
4 6,789 3,395
5 10,835
6
7
8
9
10
Time-period cohorts
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

active users 3,000 3,828 6,099 10,135 16,433

Active users over time

40,000
37,500
35,000
32,500
30,000
27,500
25,000
Active users

22,500
20,000
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
-
C C C C C C C C C C C C
olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu
mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn
C D E F G H I J K Time
L period
M N
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
-
C C C C C C C C C C C C
olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu
mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn
C D E F G H I J K Time
L period
M N
 Active user count model
(with viral and retention rates factored in)
Time period
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
95% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%
454 431 414 397 381 366 351 337
391 352 334 321 308 296 284 273
847 678 610 580 556 534 513 492
2,037 1,426 1,141 1,027 975 936 899 863
5,417 3,250 2,275 1,820 1,638 1,556 1,494 1,434
15,763 7,882 4,729 3,310 2,648 2,383 2,264 2,174
19,580 9,790 5,874 4,112 3,289 2,960 2,812
18,784 9,392 5,635 3,945 3,156 2,840
12,255 6,128 3,677 2,574 2,059
4,953 2,476 1,486 1,040
1,320 660 396
285 143
58

24,910 33,598 38,077 34,976 27,335 20,779 16,926 14,921

Active users over time

C C C C C C C C C C C C C C
olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu
mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn
I J K Time
L period
M N O P Q R S T U V
C C C C C C C C C C C C C C
olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu olu
mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn mn
I J K Time
L period
M N O P Q R S T U V
 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%
324 311 298 286 275 264 253
262 251 241 232 222 213 205
473 454 436 418 401 385 370
828 795 763 733 704 675 648
1,377 1,322 1,269 1,218 1,169 1,123 1,078
2,087 2,003 1,923 1,846 1,772 1,701 1,633
2,700 2,592 2,488 2,389 2,293 2,201 2,113
2,698 2,590 2,487 2,387 2,292 2,200 2,112
1,853 1,760 1,690 1,622 1,557 1,495 1,435
832 749 711 683 656 629 604
277 222 200 190 182 175 168
86 60 48 43 41 39 38
29 17 12 10 9 8 8
12 6 3 2 2 2 2
2 1 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0
0

13,837 13,135 12,572 12,061 11,576 11,113 10,668