ILOwcms 243391 PDF

Prots and Poverty:
The Economics of Forced Labour

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42,000,000
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35,000,000
42,000,000
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78,380,000
45,670,210
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45,999,990
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43,000,210
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45,670,210
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PROFITS AND POVERTY:
The economics of forced labour

International Labour Office (ILO)
Special Action Programme to Combat Forced Labour (SAP-FL)
Fundamental Principles and Rights at or! "ranch (FPR)

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Profits and po,ert'4 the economics of forced labour 9 International Labour Office- - 3ene,a4
ILO/ #$%&
IS".4 :;<:##%#<;<%$= :;<:##%#<;<#; (1eb pdf)
International Labour Office
forced labour 9 traffic!ing in persons 9 profit 9 cost benefit anal'sis 9 de,eloping countries 9
de,eloped countries
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iii

Preface
ince the ILO?s International Labour Conference adopted the 8eclaration on
Fundamental Principles and Rights at or! and its Follo1-up in %::</ much progress
has been made to1ard achie,ing respect for/ and promotion and reali)ation of/ its
four principals4 freedom of association and the right to collecti,e bargaining/ the
elimination of all forms of forced or compulsor' labour/ the effecti,e abolition of child
labour and the elimination of discrimination in respect to emplo'ment and occupation-
In particular/ the ILO?s t1o Con,entions on Forced Labour ha,e toda' recei,ed almost
uni,ersall' ratification/ and en*o' 1ide recognition and support-
Shortl' after the adoption of the %::< 8eclaration/ the ILO 3o,erning "od' established
the Special Action Programme to combat Forced Labour (SAP-FL)/ 1hich is located in
the Fundamental Principles and Rights "ranch of the 3o,ernance and 6ripartism
8epartment- Since its establishment in #$$%/ SAP-FL has prioriti)ed research and statistics
to enhance the global understanding of forced labour and related practices/ such as
human traffic!ing and sla,er'/ to support the de,elopment of e,idence-based policies
and programmes to address forced labour/ human traffic!ing and other forms of
in,oluntar'/ coerci,e 1or!-
6he publication b' the ILO of ne1 estimates on forced labour in #$%# created a sense of
urgenc' on the need to address implementation gaps regarding the ILO?s Forced
Labour Con,entions- In addition/ it also prompted calls to consider the adoption of
supplementar' standards b' the %$>rd International Labour Conference in @une #$%&-
6he po1er of normati,e pressure against those 1ho still use or condone the use of
forced labour is essential- .ational legislation needs to be strengthened to combat
forced labour and penalties against those 1ho profit from it need to be strictl' enforced-
2o1e,er/ a better understanding of the socio-economic root causes as 1ell as a ne1
assessment of the profits of forced labour are eAuall' important to bringing about long-
term change-
6he purpose of this report is to do *ust that- It highlights ho1 forced labour thri,es in the
incubator of po,ert' and ,ulnerabilit'/ lo1 le,els of education and literac'/ migration
and other factors- 6he e,idence and results presented in this report illustrate the need for
stronger measures of pre,ention and protection and for enhanced la1 enforcement as
the basic responses to forced labour- At the same time/ it also pro,ides ne1 !no1ledge
of the determinants of forced labour that can help us de,elop and e0pand policies and
programmes to not onl' stop forced labour 1here it e0ists/ but pre,ent it before it occurs-
6he report is based on the efforts of a multi-disciplinar' research team/ led b' SAP-FL and
supported b' the ILO?s Research 8epartment/ ILO e0perts and e0ternal peer re,ie1ers-
6he publication of this report 1as possible than!s to the generous contributions of the
3o,ernment of Ireland (Irish Aid) that pro,ides core funding to SAP-FL- 6he +-S-
S
i,

8epartment of Labor and +B 8epartment for International 8e,elopment (8FI8)
pro,ided funding for the implementation of sur,e's-
It is hoped that this ne1 report 1ill contribute to greater a1areness and effecti,e action
against forced labour as 1ell as further research in this area-
,

Table of Contents

Preface -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- iii
Acknowledgements --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ,ii
Introduction ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ %
Chapter 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >
Ceasuring forced labour/ human traffic!ing and sla,er'4 h' definitions matter -------------- >
Ceasuring forced labour4 A brief histor' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- D
6he ILO #$%# 3lobal Estimate of forced labour --------------------------------------------------------------------- ;
Chapter 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :
Estimating the profits of forced labour --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :
Pre,ious estimates -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- %$
.e1 estimate --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- %#
Regional and sectoral distribution of 1or!ers ---------------------------------------------------------------------- %F
Profits from non-domestic forced labour e0ploitation -------------------------------------------------------- #$
Cethodolog' ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ##
Profits from forced labour in domestic 1or! ------------------------------------------------------------------------ #D
Profits from forced se0ual e0ploitation ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #F
Cethodolog' ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #;
Chapter 3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- #:
hat ma!es people ,ulnerable to forced labourG ---------------------------------------------------------------- #:
6heoretical discussion of the determinants of forced labour -------------------------------------------- #:
8escripti,e anal'sis of the ,ictims of forced labour ------------------------------------------------------------ >%
Indicators of forced labour ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >%
8emographics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >D
Education and literac' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >D
ealth and Income Shoc!s ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >D
8eterminants of forced labour at the household le,el ------------------------------------------------------ >F
6he probit model ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >F
Forced labour measured at the household le,el4 6he results ---------------------------------------- >F
8emographics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >;
Education and literac' -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ><
,i

2ousehold ,ulnerabilit' ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &$
8eterminants of forced labour among returned migrants ------------------------------------------------ &$
6he tri,ariate probit model ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &$
8eterminants of forced labour among returned migrants4 6he results ------------------------- &%
8emographics and literac' ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &#
Recruitment fees and debt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &&
Occupation -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &&
Conclusions ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &D
Appendix -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &:
%- 8efinitions ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ &:
#- Profits from the Illegal +se of Forced Labour -------------------------------------------------------------------- &:
8ealing 1ith non-response ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &:
Response eight ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- &:
Response eights4 6he 8ependent 7ariables ----------------------------------------------------------------- D$
Bibliography --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- D>

,ii

Acknowledgements
he production of this report is the result of a genuinel' collaborati,e effort- ILO
1ishes to gratefull' ac!no1ledge the ,aluable contributions made b' e,er'one
1ho 1as in,ol,ed in this team effort- 6he main authors of this report are Cs
CichaHlle de Coc!/ senior statistician/ Fundamental Principles and Rights at or! "ranch
of the ILO/ and Cs Caame oode/ economist and ILO consultant- 6heir dedication and
hard 1or! made this report possible- 6he' recei,ed indispensable guidance and support
from members of ILO?s internal ad,isor' board/ in,ol,ing a number of senior economists/
namel' Cs +ma Rani/ Research 8epartment/ Cr Patric! "elser/ Conditions of or! and
EAualit' 8epartment/ and Cr Ste,en Bapsos/ Research 8epartment- 6heir technical
ad,ice and support throughout this challenging research process 1as crucial- 6han!s
are also e0tended to Cr E!!ehard Ernst/ Research 8epartment/ and Cr 8a,id Bucera/
Emplo'ment Polic' 8epartment for their support and guidance- Sincere than!s and
appreciation are due to the e0ternal peer re,ie1ers/ Cr Siddarth Bara/ 8irector of the
Program on 2uman 6raffic!ing and Codern Sla,er' at the @ohn F- Benned' School of
3o,ernment at 2ar,ard +ni,ersit' and Cr Stephen "a)en/ Professor of Applied
Econometrics/ Ai0-Carseille School of Economics- 6heir comments and feedbac! helped
impro,e the report/ and in particular the methodolog'- Special than!s are also due to
Cs AurIlie 2auchJre-7uong/ Cs Caroline Chaigne-2ope/ Cs 8elphine "ois and Cs
Agathe Sm'th for their e0traordinar' s!ill and efficienc' in underta!ing the design and
production of the report-
6
%

Introduction
he global integration of economies/ including labour mar!ets/ has brought man'
opportunities for 1or!ers and businesses- 8espite the past 'ears of economic crisis/ it
has generall' spurred economic gro1th- 2o1e,er/ the gro1th in the global
econom' has not been beneficial for all- 6oda'/ about #% million men/ 1omen and
children are in forced labour/ traffic!ed/ held in debt bondage or 1or! in sla,e-li!e
conditions-
6he publication of this ne1 ILO report on the economics of forced labour ta!es the
understanding of forced labour/ human traffic!ing/ and modern forms of sla,er' to a
ne1 le,el- It builds on earlier ILO studies on the e0tent/ cost and profits from forced
labour- For the first time/ it loo!s at both the suppl' and demand sides of forced labour/
and presents solid e,idence for a correlation bet1een forced labour and po,ert'-
hat?s more/ it pro,ides startling ne1 estimates of the illegal profits generated through
the use of forced labour/ as 1ell as ne1 e,idence of the !e' socio-economic factors
that increase the ris! of falling ,ictim to coercion and abuse-
6hese ne1 findings come as progress is being made in the struggle against forced
labour- State-imposed forced labour is declining in importance 1hen compared to the
e0tent of forced labour in the pri,ate econom'- Of course/ ,igilance is needed to
pre,ent state-imposed forced labour from resurging- "ut attention must no1 be focused
on understanding 1hat continues to dri,e forced labour and traffic!ing in the pri,ate
sector-
Chapter % la's the ground1or! for an understanding of forced labour and 1hat it is/ and
e0amines the importance of defining forced labour and related practices/ such as
human traffic!ing and sla,er'- It re,ie1s the global forced labour estimates published b'
the ILO in #$%#/ 1hich 1ere significantl' higher than the ILO?s earlier estimate-
Chapter # e0amines the profits from forced labour- +sing a ne1 and e0panded
methodolog' and based on the #$%# 3lobal Estimate/ the report pro,ides updated
estimates of the global profits generated b' forced labour-
Chapter > pro,ides a ne1 anal'sis of the socio-economic factors that ma!e people
,ulnerable to forced labour- "ased on a series of ground-brea!ing countr' sur,e's that
consider a range of different cohorts and factors/ it highlights 1here forced labour is
most li!el' to occur and pro,ides a stri!ing correlation bet1een household ,ulnerabilit'
to sudden income shoc!s and the li!elihood of ending up in forced labour- It also
elucidates ris! factors that can increase ,ulnerabilit' to forced labour/ such as po,ert'/
lac! of education/ illiterac'/ gender and migration-
6he results of this stud' ser,e to highlight the critical need for standardi)ed data
collection methods across countries that enable the ILO and other international
organisations to generate more reliable global figures/ measure trends and better
understand ris! factors- hat?s more/ it also sho1s ho1 understanding the socio-
6

#

economic factors that increase a person?s ,ulnerabilit' to forced labour can help dri,e
the de,elopment of ne1/ more robust and concrete strategies that augment e0isting
programmes- In addition/ it calls for a strengthening of la1s and policies based on
normati,e responses and an e0pansion of pre,enti,e measures that can !eep people
out of forced labour-
6he report concludes that there is an urgent need to address the socio-economic root
causes of this hugel' profitable illegal practice if it is to be o,ercome- Comprehensi,e
measures are reAuired that in,ol,e go,ernments/ 1or!ers/ emplo'ers and other
sta!eholders 1or!ing together to end forced labour- It sho1s ho1 the continued
e0istence of forced labour is not onl' bad for its ,ictims/ it?s bad for business and
de,elopment as 1ell- And it aptl' illustrates that forced labour is a practice that has no
place in modern societ' and should be eradicated as a matter of priorit'-

>

Chapter 1
Measurin forced labour! human "raffic#in and
sla$er%: &h% defini"ions ma""er
lear and precise definitions are fundamental to the measurement of social
problems/ their trends and potential change- "' carefull' defining a problem/ it is
possible to Auantif' its e0tent/ understand 1hether it decreases or increases o,er
time/ and assess 1hether policies ha,e an impact- Some problems are easier to
measure than others/ and the consensus is that measuring forced labour/ traffic!ing/
sla,er'/ including se0ual e0ploitation/ poses man' challenges- 6he hidden nature of the
problem/ political sensiti,ities and ethical considerations ma!e it ,er' difficult to
implement ,erifiable sur,e's-
6his chapter e0amines the definition of forced labour/ and ho1 it ma' affect estimates of
its e0tent and the profits generated through e0ploitation and loss of freedom- It also
considers the phrase Kmodern sla,er'L/ 1hich has emerged as a catch-all for forced
labour/ human traffic!ing/ forced se0ual e0ploitation and some of the 1orst forms of
child labour- 6here has been some concern/ in both academic and legal circles/ that
the phrase represents a trend to label certain practices as more e0treme than is legall'
accurate- 6here is no Auestion that sla,er'/ in all its forms/ is unacceptable and must be
eradicated- 2o1e,er/ not all children e0posed to ha)ardous 1or! are Ksla,esL/ and not
all labour that is not compensated 1ith a fair 1age is necessaril' forced-
6he ILO?s Forced Labour Con,ention/ %:>$ (.o- #:) defines forced labour as4 KAll 1or! or
ser,ice 1hich is e0acted from an' person under the menace of an' penalt' and for
1hich the said person has not offered himself ,oluntaril'MM (ILO C-#:/ Art- %)- Con,ention
.o- #: pro,ides for certain e0ceptions 1ith respect to 1or! of a purel' militar' character/
KnormalL ci,ic obligations/ 1or! as a conseAuence of a con,iction in a court of la1 and
carried out under the control of a public authorit'/ 1or! in emergenc' situations such as
1ars or natural calamities/ and minor communal ser,ices (Art- #-#)- A subseAuent ILO
Con,ention/ the Abolition of Forced Labour Con,ention/ %:D; (.o- %$D) further specifies
that forced labour can ne,er be used as a means of political coercion or education or
as punishment for e0pressing political ,ie1s or for participating in stri!e action/ as labour
discipline/ as racial/ social/ national or religious discrimination/ or for mobili)ing labour for
economic de,elopment purposes-
Forced labour includes practices such as sla,er' and those similar to sla,er'/ debt
bondage and serfdom as defined in other international instruments/ such as the League
of .ations Sla,er' Con,ention (%:#F)
%
and the +. Supplementar' Con,ention on the
Abolition of Sla,er'/ the Sla,e 6rade/ and Institutions and Practices Similar to Sla,er'

1
The 1926 Slavery Convention defines slavery as the status or condition of a person over whom any or all of
the powers attaching to the right of ownership are exercised !rticle 11""#
C

&

(%:DF)- Further/ the ILO Committee of E0perts on the Application of Con,entions and
Recommendations (CEACR) has pro,ided guidance on the scope of the definition of
forced labour/ stressing that it encompasses traffic!ing in persons for the purpose of
labour and se0ual e0ploitation/
#
as defined b' the Palermo Protocol to Pre,ent/ Suppress
and Punish 6raffic!ing in Persons/ especiall' omen and Children-
>

6he Palermo Protocol defines traffic!ing in persons as the recruitment/ transportation/
harbouring or receipt of persons/ b' means of coercion/ abduction/ deception or abuse
of po1er or of ,ulnerabilit'/ for the purpose of e0ploitation- It goes on to specif' that
e0ploitation/ at a minimum/ includes se0ual e0ploitation/ forced labour/ sla,er' and
sla,er'-li!e practices-
&
6here is therefore a clear lin! bet1een the Protocol and ILO
Con,ention .o- #:- 6he onl' t'pe of e0ploitation specified in the Protocol?s definitional
article that is not also co,ered b' ILO Con,ention .o- #: is traffic!ing for the remo,al of
organs-
Forced labour affects both adults and children as defined in Con,ention .o- #:-
2o1e,er/ the importance of definitions is illustrated in the terms of the ILO orst Forms of
Child Labour Con,ention/ %::: (.o- %<#)
D
- 6he Con,ention ma!es a distinction bet1een
children 1ho are held in sla,er'/ debt bondage or serfdom/ or 1ho are traffic!ed or
sub*ected to forced labour/ and those 1ho are in Kha)ardous 1or!L- All of these forms of
child labour should be eliminated 1ithin the shortest possible time but different
approaches are reAuired- 6he Con,ention is part of a larger canon of +. and ILO
instruments in 1hich the drafters agreed that children cannot ,oluntaril' KconsentL to
e0ploitation and that free mo,ement does not eAual free labour-
For the purposes of this report/ therefore/ all primar' data ha,e been ,alidated as
appl'ing to persons meeting the definition under Con,ention .o- #:4 men and 1omen/
bo's and girls 1ere considered as being in forced labour 1hene,er the 1or! 1as
in,oluntar' as a result of force/ fraud or deception/ and a penalt' or threat of a penalt'
1as used to coerce them or their parents in the case of children belo1 the age of %<-
6his means that/ for e0ample/ 1or!ing for lo1 1ages is not considered forced labour

2
$%& Committee of 'xperts on the !pplication of Conventions and (ecommendations C'!C(") Eradication of
forced labour: General survey concerning the Forced Labour Convention, 1930 (o! "9#, and the $bolition of
Forced Labour Convention, 19%& (o! 10%# *eneva+ 2,,-"+ (eport $$$ .art 1/"+ para# --#
0
The .rotocol supplements the 12 Convention !gainst Transnational &rgani3ed Crime 2,,,"# $t criminali3es
traffic4ing in persons+ whether it occurs within countries or across 5orders+ and whether or not conducted 5y
organi3ed criminal networ4s#
6
!rticle 0 of the .rotocol defines traffic4ing as) The recruitment+ transportation+ transfer+ har5ouring or
receipt of persons+ 5y means of the threat or use of force or other forms of coercion+ of a5duction+ of fraud+ of
deception+ of the a5use of power or of a position of vulnera5ility or of the giving or receiving of payments or
5enefits to achieve the consent of a person having control over another person+ for the purpose of
exploitation# 'xploitation shall include+ at a minimum+ the exploitation of the prostitution of others or other
forms of sexual exploitation+ forced la5our or services+ slavery or practices similar to slavery+ servitude or the
removal of organs# !rt# 0 a""# $t also specifies that) The recruitment+ transportation+ transfer+ har5ouring or
receipt of a child for the purpose of exploitation shall 5e considered 7traffic4ing in persons8 even if this does
not involve any of the means set forth in su5paragraph a" of this article !rt# 0 c""#
9
!ccording to the :orst ;orms of Child %a5our Convention 2o# 1<2"+ worst forms of child la5our shall
include all forms of slavery or practices similar to slavery+ such as the sale and traffic4ing of children+ de5t
5ondage and serfdom and forced or compulsory la5our+ including forced or compulsory recruitment of
children for use in armed conflict#
D

unless it results from coercion applied b' the emplo'er or recruiter- 7ictims of forced
labour could be 1or!ing in their place of origin/ in another part of their countr'/ or
abroad-
A simple typology
Since #$$D/ the ILO has classified forced labour in three main categories4

Forced labour imposed by the state co,ers all forms of 1or! e0acted b' public
authorities/ militar' or paramilitar'/ compulsor' participation in public 1or!s and
forced prison labour (1ithin the scope of ILO Con,entions .o- #: and .o- %$D)=
Forced labour imposed by priate agents for sexual exploitation co,ers an'
commercial se0ual acti,it'/ including pornograph'/ e0acted from the ,ictim b'
fraud or force= and/
Forced labour imposed by priate agents for labour exploitation includes bonded
labour/ forced domestic 1or!/ forced labour of migrants in man' economic sectors
and 1or! imposed in the conte0t of sla,er' or ,estiges of sla,er'- Forced illicit
acti,ities such as forced begging for gangs for e0ample are also included in this
categor'-

6he ILO?s #$%# 3lobal Estimate of forced labour co,ers these three forms of forced
labour/ but the estimate of the profits and the anal'sis of the causes of forced labour
presented in this paper are limited to labour and se0ual e0ploitation e0tracted b' pri,ate
agents-
Measuring forced labour: A brief history
In earl' #$$$/ there 1as ,irtuall' no solid data on forced labour/ either at the national or
global le,els- Some international organi)ations/ go,ernments/ media and non-
go,ernmental organi)ations cited anecdotal e,idence of forced labour/ but most of the
information 1as ,ague/ imprecise in its terminolog' and anal'sis/ or Auantified b' 1idel'
,ar'ing estimates/ if at all- In response/ the ILO undertoo! the difficult tas! of collecting
data that could be ,erified/ thus pro,iding a foundation to inform polic' and action
against forced labour-
6he ILO designed and implemented Aualitati,e research 1orld1ide on the mechanisms
of recruitment/ 1or!ing conditions and the means of coercion imposed on child and
adult 1or!ers in ,arious sectors and industries- At the same time/ data 1ere gathered b'
,arious organi)ations and go,ernments on identified and assisted ,ictims of forced
labour and human traffic!ing/ 1hich began to raise concerns of 1hat 1as percei,ed as
Kthe tip of the icebergL of a much larger phenomenon- Compounding the difficult'/ it
emerged that most ,ictims 1ho managed to escape from forced labour or traffic!ing
returned to their place of origin 1ithout as!ing for assistance/ and therefore 1ere not
included in those databases-
In #$$D/ the ILO published the first global estimate of forced labour/ 1ith indications of its
regional distribution and broad forms in the 8irector-3eneral?s 3lobal Report entitled A
global alliance against forced labour- 6he global estimate?s methodolog' 1as
e0perimental and could/ doubtless/ ha,e been impro,ed in man' 1a's- 2o1e,er/ this

F

first estimate had the effect of launching an entirel' ne1 global discussion on the issue/
not onl' on the e0tent of the problem that had been largel' in,isible due to 1ea! or
non-e0istent reliable data/ but also on ho1 to mobili)e public a1areness of its continued
e0istence and de,elop means to support its elimination-
F

SubseAuentl'/ data collection 1as e0tended to the national le,el and selected sectoral
and geographical areas of potential forced labour- "et1een #$$; and #$%#/ the ILO
launched a number of pilot statistical sur,e's in Africa/ Latin America/ Asia and Europe-
In most cases/ these sur,e's 1ere designed and implemented in collaboration 1ith
.ational Statistical Offices to guarantee the Aualit' of the 1or! and to ensure national
o1nership-
6he first sur,e's on the forced labour of migrant 1or!ers 1ere conducted in Armenia/
3eorgia and the Republic of Coldo,a/ all origin countries for mainl' adult labour
migrants and therefore potential sources of traffic!ing- 6he three sur,e's 1ere
implemented as household-based sur,e's/ targeting labour migrants 1ho returned from
abroad after an absence of t1o to three 'ears- In t1o other countries/ .epal and the
.iger/ sur,e's targeted households at ris! of more traditional forms of forced labour of
adults and children- Finall'/ sur,e's to estimate different forms of forced labour and
traffic!ing/ either at the national or regional le,els or for a gi,en sector of acti,it'/ 1ere
implemented in fi,e countries4 "angladesh/ the Plurinational State of "oli,ia/ CNte
d?I,oire/ 3uatemala and Cali-
6hese sur,e's gathered data on the socio-economic profile of the respondents/ the
recruitment process/ migration histor' (if rele,ant)/ 1or!ing and li,ing conditions
including the ris! of in,oluntariness and penalt'/ economic data on 1ages/ recruitment
fees and remittances/ and 1hether the 1or!ers had reAuested assistance- 6hese data
1ere used for the #$%# 3lobal Estimate (to estimate the ratio of reported9non-reported
cases of forced labour) and for the determinants anal'sis (testing some characteristics of
the households or respondents for the regression anal'sis)-
6he lessons learned b' implementing those pilot sur,e's 1ere published in #$%# in
another ILO publication/ entitled Hard to see, harder to count: Survey guidelines to
estimate forced labour of adults and children-
;
6he guidelines included an operational
definition of forced labour/ along 1ith a list of criteria for assessing forced labour that are
no1 being used in the ,alidation process of an' ILO data used for research on forced
labour to ensure consistenc'-

6
$%&) $ global alliance against forced labour, Global 'e(ort under the Follo)*u( to the +L, -eclaration on
Funda.ental /rinci(les and 'ights at 0or1 *eneva+ 2,,9"= .# /elser et al#) +L, 2ini.u. Esti.ate of Forced
Labour in the 0orld $%&+ *eneva+ 2,,9"#
-
$%&) 3ard to see, harder to count: 4urvey guidelines to esti.ate forced labour of children and adults *eneva
2,12"+ availa5le at) http)>>www#ilo#org>wcmsp9>groups>pu5lic>???ed@norm>???
declaration>documents>pu5lication>wcms@1<2,96#pdf#

;

The IL !"1! #lobal $stimate of forced labour
In the #$%# sur,e'/ the ILO estimated that #$-: million people are in forced labour
globall'/ traffic!ed for labour and se0ual e0ploitation or held in sla,er'-li!e conditions-
6he ,ast ma*orit' of the #$-: million forced labourers O %<-; million (:$ per cent) O are
e0ploited in the pri,ate econom'/ b' indi,iduals or enterprises- Of these/ &-D million (##
per cent) are ,ictims of forced se0ual e0ploitation/ and %&-# million (F< per cent) are
,ictims of forced labour e0ploitation/ primaril' in agriculture/ construction/ domestic
1or!/ manufacturing/ mining and utilities- 6he remaining #-# million (%$ per cent) are in
state-imposed forms of forced labour/ such as prisons/ or in 1or! imposed b' militar' or
paramilitar' forces-

Figure %4 3lobal estimate b' form of forced labour

Source4 ILO

omen and girls represent the greater share of the total P %%-& million (DD per cent) P
compared to :-D million (&D per cent) men and bo's- Adults are more affected than
children P %D-& million (;& per cent) are aged %< or older/ 1ith the number of children
under the age of %< estimated at D-D million (#F per cent)-
6he Asia-Pacific region accounts b' far for the largest number of forced labourers P %%-;
million (DF per cent of the global total)- 6he second highest number is found in Africa at
>-; million (%< per cent)/ follo1ed b' Latin America and the Caribbean 1ith %-< million
,ictims (: per cent)- 6he 8e,eloped Economies and European +nion account for %-D
million (; per cent)/ 1hile countries of Central/ South-Eastern and Eastern Europe (CSEE)
and the Common1ealth of Independent States (CIS) ha,e %-F million (; per cent)- 6here
are an estimated F$$/$$$ (> per cent) ,ictims in the Ciddle East-
<

<
(egional groupings are 5ased on those used in the $%&7s report+ Global E.(loy.ent 5rends "01" *eneva"#
.ercentages and num5ers are rounded#
Sexual exploitation
6+9,,+,,,#,,
22A
%a5our
exploitation
16+2,,+,,,#,,
6<A
State imposed
2+2,,+,,,#,,
1,A

<

6he pre,alence rate (number of ,ictims per thousand inhabitants) is highest in the CSEE
and Africa regions at &-# and &-$/ respecti,el'/ and lo1est in the 8e,eloped Economies
at %-D per %/$$$ inhabitants- 6he relati,el' high pre,alence in CSEE and CIS can be
attributed to the fact that the population is much lo1er than in Asia/ 1hile reports of
traffic!ing for labour and se0ual e0ploitation and of state-imposed forced labour in the
region are numerous-
6he estimates also pro,ide a picture of the impact of migration on forced labour- Of the
total/ an estimated :-% million people (&& per cent) mo,ed either internall' or
internationall'/ 1hile the ma*orit'/ %%-< million (DF per cent)/ 1ere sub*ected to forced
labour 1ithin their place of origin or residence- 6he stud' also sho1ed that cross-border
mo,ement is strongl' associated 1ith forced se0ual e0ploitation/ 1hile a ma*orit' of
,ictims of forced labour e0ploitation/ and almost all those in state-imposed forced
labour/ ha,e not left their home areas- Another interesting result to emerge from the
estimates is that ,ictims spend an a,erage of %< months in forced labour/ although this
,aried 1ith different forms of forced labour-

:

Chapter !
Es"ima"in "he 'rofi"s of forced labour
he e0action of forced labour often in,ol,es a range of intermediaries such as
bro!ers/ mone'lenders or criminal net1or!s- 6he' all ta!e ad,antage of 1or!ers 1ho
are ,ulnerable to deception/ abuse and fraud- "ut the indi,iduals and enterprises
that emplo' 1or!ers under conditions of forced labour stand to gain the most b'
underpa'ing their 1or!ers/ or b' not pa'ing them at all- 6he ILO lobal !stimate of
"orced Labour in #$%# also pro,ided e,idence on the length of time that ,ictims of
forced labour 1ere held capti,e- In more than one third of the reported cases that
contained such information/ forced labour lasted one to t1o 'ears- Almost half of
reported cases indicated that ,ictims spent si0 months or less in forced labour-
:
8uring
this time/ unscrupulous emplo'ers and criminals can ma!e significant profits b' e0acting
forced labour-
In #$$D/ the ILO published its first estimate of the profits resulting from human traffic!ing/
1hich 1as considered as a process in,ol,ing the mo,ement of a person b' a third
part'-
%$
6he total illicit profits produced in % 'ear b' traffic!ed forced labourers 1ere
estimated at +SQ># billion- 6he methodolog' 1as e0plained in more detail and e0tended
to non-traffic!ed forced labour in an ILO 1or!ing paper published in #$$D-
%%

6he paper pro,ided the first estimates of the profits made b' the use of forced labour/
using data on ,alue added in the agricultural sector- Estimates 1ere also gi,en for
forced se0ual e0ploitation- 6he results 1ere based on the estimates of the e0tent of
forced labour published b' the ILO in #$$D-
%#
6he focus 1as on the agricultural sector/ as
it 1as assumed to emplo' a high number of forced labour ,ictims- Profits 1ere defined in
the #$$D 1or!ing paper as the difference bet1een the a,erage economic ,alue added
and the sum of e0penditures on 1age pa'ments and intermediate consumption- It 1as
estimated that the global profits made using forced labour 1ere at least +SQ&& billion
per 'ear/ including the +SQ># billion from traffic!ing-
In #$$:/ the ILO lobal #e$ort under the follo%&u$ to the ILO Declaration on
"undamental Princi$les and #ights at 'or( focused on the financial costs 1or!ers
incurred as a result of being held in forced labour- 6he report concentrated on the
underpa'ment of 1ages and the costs in,ol,ed in the recruitment process/ such as

9
$%&) +L, global esti.ate of forced labour: 'esults and .ethodology *eneva+ 2,12"#
1,
$%&) $ global alliance against forced labour+ *lobal 'e(ort under the Follo)*u( to the +L, -eclaration on
Funda.ental /rinci(les and 'ights at 0or1 *eneva+ 2,,9"#
11
.# /elser) Forced Labour and 3u.an 5raffic1ing: Esti.ating the /rofits *eneva+ $%&+ Special !ction
.rogramme to Com5at ;orced %a5our+ 2,,9"+ B'C%!(!T$&2>:.>62>2,,9#
12
$%&) $ global alliance against forced labour+ Global 'e(ort under the Follo)*u( to the +L, -eclaration on
Funda.ental /rinci(les and 'ights at 0or1 *eneva+ 2,,9"= .# /elser et al#) +L, 2ini.u. Esti.ate of Forced
Labour in the 0orld $%&+ *eneva+ 2,,9"#
6

%$

recruitment fees- 6he report found that/ e0cluding forced se0ual e0ploitation/ the total
costs of coercion 1ere appro0imatel' +SQ#% billion/ 1ith the total amount of underpaid
1ages estimated to be +SQ%:-F billion/ 1ith the remaining +SQ%-& billion attributed to
illegal recruitment fees-
6his report re-estimates the illegal profits made from the use of forced labour based on
an updated methodolog' and data collected for the #$%# 3lobal Estimate- Li!e the
#$$D ILO estimate of the profits of forced labour/ this ne1 estimate does not ta!e into
account profits generated b' forced labour imposed b' state authorities- 6he ne1
estimate is the aggregation of regional profit figures for three forms of forced labour/
namel' forced labour e0ploitation outside domestic 1or!/ forced domestic 1or! and
forced se0ual e0ploitation-
Pre%ious estimates
6he #$$D estimate of the profits made b' the use of forced labour e0ploitation relied on
the ,alue added for the agricultural sector- 6his 1as considered a good indicator of the
a,erage ,alue added in the different lo1-s!illed acti,ities performed b' forced labour
,ictims- In addition/ a high number of forced labour ,ictims 1ere considered to be
1or!ing in this sector- 6he methodolog' in,ol,ed the calculation of profits as the total
,alue added (7A) minus the total 1age pa'ments ()- hen information on ,alue
added 1as not readil' a,ailable/ the turno,er approach 1as used/ 1here the profits
1ere estimated to be the turno,er (6) less total 1age pa'ments () less intermediate
consumption (C)- 6urno,er 1as calculated as the a,erage ,alue of goods and ser,ices
produced per 1or!er multiplied b' the total number of 1or!ers-
%>
6hus/ to estimate the
profits/ the #$$D paper used the follo1ing eAuations4
! "A #
a = T (W+C)
a = |(qp) (m+c)]N

Information on the added ,alue per person in agriculture from the )**+ 'orld
Develo$ment Indicators (8I) of the orld "an!
%&
and the h'pothesis that/ on a,erage/
forced labour ,ictims are paid about #$ per cent of their added ,alue resulted in an
estimated illegal profit of +SQ%$-& billion- A high percentage of the profits 1ere made in
Latin America and the Caribbean (+SQ>-F billion)/ 8e,eloped Economies (+SQ>-& billion)
and in Asia and the Pacific (+SQ#-D billion)- hen onl' traffic!ed indi,iduals 1ere
considered/ the #$$D paper estimated a profit of about +SQ>-< billion-
Estimating the illegal profit from forced se0ual e0ploitation is difficult as information on
the economic added ,alue of se0 1or! is scarce and an KinappropriateL measure-
Rough estimates are therefore used 1here the prices paid b' clients 1ere estimated

10
This is in itself calculated as the average price of units produced p" multiplied 5y the Cuantity C" produced
per wor4er#
16
The :orld /an4) 0orld -evelo(.ent +ndicators :ashington B#C#+ 2,,6"#

%%

based on the le,el of income of the countr' 1here the transaction too! place and the
legal regime of that countr'- "ased on information from multiple sources/ it 1as
estimated that each indi,idual sub*ected to forced se0ual e0ploitation had <$
transactions per month- It 1as further estimated that 1age pa'ments and intermediate
consumption 1as about >$ per cent of total turno,er- +sing this information/ it 1as
estimated that profits made from forced se0ual e0ploitation 1ere about +SQ>>-: billion/
1ith profits made from forced se0ual e0ploitation as a result of traffic!ing estimated to
be about +SQ#;-< billion/ 1here almost half of these profits 1ere made in industriali)ed
economies alone (+SQ%>-> billion)-
In his #$$: stud'/ Se, -raffic(ing: Inside the .usiness of /odern Slavery
01
/ Siddharth Bara
estimates there 1ere #<-& million sla,es 1orld1ide at the end of #$$F- +sing a profit and
loss statement approach/ the implied annual re,enues generated b' sla,es at the end
of #$$F 1as about +SQ%D#-> billion/ 1ith the implied annual profit from sla,e labour
estimated to be +SQ:%-# billion- 6his figure 1as re,ised in #$%# to reach +SQ:F-D billion- 6o
calculate the profits/ Bara initiall' calculates the re,enue generated b' each sla,e- For
each t'pe of sla,er'/ Bara estimates a percentage in each region- 6hus/ for bonded
labour and debt bondage/ he estimates that <: per cent are in South Asia/ D-D per cent
in Latin America and the other D-D per cent in Africa- 2e then di,ides/ for each t'pe of
sla,er' in each region/ the percentage of sla,es in specific industries of selected
countries- For e0ample/ of the <: per cent of sla,es in South Asia/ %D per cent are
estimated to be in bric! !ilns/ #D per cent in carpet 1ea,ing and other manufacturing/
and the remaining F$ per cent in rice and sugar cane production-
For bric! !ilns/ Bara decides to use India as a case stud'/ and thus estimates that the
annual re,enue generated b' a bonded labourer 1or!ing in the bric! !ilns of India
amounts to +SQ&/>DD- 6his ,alue/ 1hen multiplied b' the percentage of bonded
labourers in the bric! !ilns/ puts the annual re,enue contribution of a bric!-!iln bonded
labourer to the total re,enues generated b' bonded labourers in South Asia at +SQFD>-
6his calculation is also done for the carpet 1ea,ing industr' in India and the rice and
sugar cane industr'- An a,erage of the re,enues generated b' these three selected
industries are then calculated and subseAuentl' multiplied b' the percentage of
bonded labourers in South Asia-
6he calculations are then repeated for Latin America/ 1here the countries used are
"ra)il/ Peru and the Plurinational State of "oli,ia/ focusing on the charcoal camps (%$ per
cent)/ cattle farms (>$ per cent) and agriculture (F$ per cent)/ specificall' tobacco and
sugar cane/ and for Africa using CNte d?I,oire/ Ben'a and +ganda/ 1here the sectors
focused on include agriculture (:$ per cent)/ specificall' coffee and cocoa/ and
transport9con,e'ance (%$ per cent)- 6he o,erall re,enue generated b' bonded
labourers is calculated as the 1eighted a,erage of the estimated re,enues per selected
region- Operating costs are calculated using information from data gathered during the
sur,e' and face-to-face inter,ie1s- 6he final profit generated is estimated to be the
re,enues minus the operating costs-

19
S# Dara) 4e6 5raffic1ing: +nside the 7usiness of 2odern 4lavery (2ew Eor4+ Colum5ia 1niversity .ress+ 2,,9"#

%#

Figure # Summar' of Bara methodolog'

Source4 S- Bara4 Se0 6raffic!ing4 Inside the "usiness of Codern Sla,er' (.e1 Ror!/ Columbia +ni,ersit' Press/ #$$:)-

"oth approaches discussed so far emplo' a business model- hile the ILO #$$D 1or!ing
paper chooses to use the value added statement approach/ Bara uses the $rofits and
loss statement approach- In the ne0t section/ the model is de,eloped to estimate the
profits made b' the use of forced labour/ using information from the #$%# 3lobal
Estimate database- 6he ne1 methodolog' can be seen as a combination of the t1o
methodologies described abo,e- Since the t1o pre,ious estimates 1ere released/
se,eral studies ha,e been carried out on the economics of forced labour/ 1ith ne1
information coming to light- In addition/ man' cases of forced labour collected b' the
ILO for the #$%# 3lobal Estimate of Forced Labour contained information on the sectors
in 1hich ,ictims are concentrated and on the 1ages that the' earn in the ,arious
sectors- 6hese ne1 data are used to impro,e the pre,ious models-
&ew estimate
In addition to the ,ictims/ the main financial losers from forced labour are the countries
1here forced labour originates or 1here forced labour occurs- 6he ,ictims usuall' lose
much of their earnings due to 1age retention/ debt repa'ments and underpa'ment of
1ages- 6he' 1or! under strenuous conditions but recei,e little or no pa'- 6he countries
1here the' 1or! lose re,enues from non-pa'ment of ta0es due to undeclared incomes
or the illegal nature of the *obs concerned- For the countries of origin/ remittances are
se,erel' affected b' the ,er' lo1 1ages of forced labourers- For de,eloping countries/
this cut in remittances tends to result in a hea,' reduction in in,estments and a lac! of
impro,ement in income ineAualit'-
8ata collected b' the ILO for the #$%# 3lobal Estimate of Forced Labour made it
possible to re,ise the #$$D estimate of the profits/ gi,ing a more accurate picture of the
financial impact of forced labour b' region- All calculations are made using #$$F as a
reference 'ear- As e0plained in detail in the follo1ing sections/ the ne1 estimate is the
aggregation of regional figures of profits for three forms of forced labour/ namel' forced
89
5.5
5.5
"onded Labour
South Asia Africa Latin America
Brick Kilns
(evenues
Costs
.rofits
Rice & Sugarcane
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

Conveyance
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

Charcoal
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

Carpet Weaving
(evenues
Costs
.rofits
Coffee & Cocoa
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

Cattle Farms
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

Tobacco & Sugarcane
(evenues
Costs
.rofits

India
CNte d?I,oire/ Ben'a/
+ganda "ra)il/ Peru/ "oli,ia
90
60
15 25 10 10 30
60
%>

labour e0ploitation outside domestic 1or!/ forced domestic 1or! and forced se0ual
e0ploitation- 6hese forms concern %<-; million ,ictims out of the #$-: million people
estimated to be in forced labour in #$%#- In absence of reliable information on the
economics of state-imposed forced labour/ and the theoretical difficulties in estimating
the profits in forms such as child soldiers/ it 1as decided to e0clude the profits generated
b' the #-# million ,ictims of state-imposed forced labour-

6able #-%- Estimated annual profits from forced labour (+SQ billion)
Source) $%&
Components may not add up to the total 5ecause of rounding

It is estimated that the total illegal profits obtained from the use of forced labour
%F

1orld1ide amount to $%&1'()2 billion per year- Core than one third of the profits P
$%&'1)2 billion P are made in forced labour e0ploitation/ including nearl' $%&* billion
generated in domestic 1or! b' emplo'ers 1ho use threats and coercion to pa' no or
lo1 1ages-
6he profits are highest in Asia (+SQ D%-< billion) and 8e,eloped Economies (+SQ &F-:
billion)/ mainl' for t1o reasons4 the high number of ,ictims in Asia and the high profit per
,ictim in 8e,eloped Economies-

16
&utside state?imposed forced la5our#
Region Forced Se0ual
E0ploitation
8omestic 1or! .on 8omestic
labour
6otal
Asia-Pacific
>%-;$ F->$ %>-<$ D%-<$
Latin America and
the Caribbean
%$-&$ $-D$ %-$$ %#-$$
Africa
<-:$ $->$ >-:$ %>-%$
Ciddle East
;-D$ $-&$ $-F$ <-D$
Central and South-
Eastern Europe and
CIS
%&->$ $-%$ >-F$ %<-$$
8e,eloped
Economies and E+
#F-#$ $-#$ #$-D$ &F-:$
orld
::-$$ ;-:$ &>-&$ %D$-#$

%&

Figure >- Annual profits of forced labour b' region (+SQ billion)

Source4 ILO
Annual profit per ,ictim is highest in the 8e,eloped Economies (+SQ>&/<$$ per ,ictim)/
follo1ed b' countries in the Ciddle East (+SQ%D/$$$ per ,ictim)/ and lo1est in the Asia-
Pacific region (+SQD/$$$ per ,ictim) and in Africa (+SQ>/:$$ per ,ictim)-

Figure &- Annual profit per ,ictim of forced labour b' region (+SQ)
Source4 ILO

91#<
66#9
1<#,
10#1
12#,
<#9
?
1,#,
2,#,
0,#,
6,#,
9,#,
6,#,
!sia?.acific Beveloped
'conomies and
'1
Central and
South?'astern
'urope and C$S
!frica %atin !merica
and the
Cari55ean
Fiddle 'ast
Annual profits of forced labour per region
(US $ billion)
9+,,,
06+<,,
12+9,,
0+9,,
-+9,,
19+,,,
?
9+,,,
1,+,,,
19+,,,
2,+,,,
29+,,,
0,+,,,
09+,,,
6,+,,,
!sia?.acific Beveloped
'conomies and
'1
Central and
South?'astern
'urope and C$S
!frica %atin !merica
and the
Cari55ean
Fiddle 'ast
Annual profit per victim of forced labour per
region
(US $)
%D

3loball'/ t1o thirds of the profits from forced labour 1ere generated b' forced se0ual
e0ploitation/ amounting to an estimated $%& ++ billion per year- In calculating the profits/
it is assumed that 1ages and intermediate consumption ma!e up about >$ per cent of
the total earnings of forced labour ,ictims in forced se0ual e0ploitation-
7ictims of forced labour e0ploitation/ including domestic 1or!/ agriculture and other
economic acti,ities/ generate an estimated $%& '1 billion in profits per 'ear- Out of
those/ the profits from forced labour in agriculture/ including forestr' and fishing/ are
estimated to be $%& + billion per year- 6his 1as calculated b' estimating the difference
bet1een the ,alue added accruing to labour (using the ,alue added per 1or!er/ 1hich
1as then multiplied b' the labour share/ conser,ati,el' estimated to be t1o thirds) and
the 1ages paid to ,ictims of forced labour in that sector/ using information of the #$%#
3lobal 8atabase-
Profits for other economic acti,ities are estimated at $%& 3, billion per year-
encompassing construction/ manufacturing/ mining and utilities- In this case/ the ,alue
added accruing to labour is calculated using the sector-specific a,erage earnings
di,ided b' the labour share-
Finall'/ it is estimated that pri,ate households emplo'ing domestic 1or!ers under
conditions of forced labour sa,e about $%&* billion annuall' b' not pa'ing or
underpa'ing their 1or!ers- 6hose sa,ings 1ere calculated based on the difference
bet1een the 1age that domestic 1or!ers should recei,e and the actual 1ages paid to
domestic 1or!ers in forced labour- "ased on information in the #$%# 3lobal 8atabase/ it
can be estimated that forced domestic 1or!ers are paid on a,erage about &$ per cent
of the 1age the' should recei,e-
Profits per ,ictim are highest in forced se0ual e0ploitation/ 1hich can be e0plained b'
the demand for such ser,ices and the prices that clients are 1illing to pa'/ and b' the
lo1 capital in,estments and lo1 operating costs associated 1ith this acti,it'- ith a
global a,erage profit of +SQ#%/<$$ per 'ear per ,ictim/ this sector is si0 times more
profitable than all other forms of forced labour/ and fi,e times more profitable than
forced labour e0ploitation outside domestic 1or!-

%F

Figure D- Annual profit per ,ictim b' sector of e0ploitation (+SQ)

Source4 ILO

'egional and sectoral distribution of workers
6his section describes the methodolog' used to distribute the %<-; million ,ictims of
forced labour in the pri,ate econom' 1orld1ide in regional and sectoral estimates- 6he
#$%# 3lobal Estimate pro,ides the total number of forced labour ,ictims per region/ and
the global number of ,ictims per form of forced labour/ but no regional distribution could
be calculated using the capture-recapture methodolog' 1ith acceptable margins of
error- In the frame1or! of this research on the economics of forced labour/ and in
absence of more detailed information/ this report assumes that the distribution of ,ictims
across the three forms (forced labour e0ploitation/ forced se0ual e0ploitation and state-
imposed forced labour) is uniform across the regions- 6his 1ould mean that in all regions
under consideration/ %$ per cent of the ,ictims are in state-imposed forced labour/ F<
per cent are in forced labour e0ploitation in the pri,ate econom' and ## per cent are in
forced se0ual e0ploitation-

21+<,,
6+<,,
2+9,, 2+0,,
?
9+,,,
1,+,,,
19+,,,
2,+,,,
29+,,,
Sexual exploitation Construction+
manufacturing+ mining
and utilities
!griculture Bomestic wor4
Annual profits per victim per sector of
exploitation
(US $)
%;

6able #-#- Estimated number of ,ictims b' t'pe of forced labour and region
Region Forced se0ual
e0ploitation
Forced labour
e0ploitation
State-
imposed
forced labour
6otal
Asia-Pacific

#/D$$/$$$

;/:$$/$$$

%/#$$/$$$

%%/;$$/$$$
Latin America S the
Caribbean

&$$/$$$

%/#$$/$$$

#$$/$$$

%/<$$/$$$
Africa

<$$/$$$

#/D$$/$$$

&$$/$$$

>/;$$/$$$
Ciddle East

%$$/$$$

&$$/$$$

%$$/$$$

F$$/$$$
Central and South-
Eastern Europe S CIS

>$$/$$$

%/%$$/$$$

#$$/$$$

%/F$$/$$$
8e,eloped Economies S
E+

>$$/$$$

%/$$$/$$$

#$$/$$$

%/D$$/$$$
6otal

&/D$$/$$$

%&/#$$/$$$

#/#$$/$$$

#$/:$$/$$$
Source) $%&

6he profits made from forced labour are then estimated for forced se0ual and labour
e0ploitation in each region-
In the absence of an' reliable national sur,e's and figures on forced se0ual e0ploitation/
the distribution of ,ictims resulting from this first assumption is difficult to assess- 6he
patterns of recruitment/ mainl' based on deception and abuse of ,ulnerabilit'/ are Auite
1ell !no1n from good Aualitati,e research- 6he means of coercion applied to the
,ictims/ adults and children/ male and female/ ha,e also been sho1n as means to
e0tract more profits from the ,ictims to force them to 1or! more and pre,ent them from
lea,ing the place of e0ploitation-
6he %&-# million ,ictims in forced labour e0ploitation 1or! in all producti,e sectors of the
econom'- 6he profits the' generate depend on their occupation and the industr' the'
1or! in- Ideall'/ the profits should be calculated based on the distribution of 1or!ers in
forced labour per industr' for each region- 6his 1as not possible for ob,ious reasons of
reliabilit' of such a distribution/ as no such information is 'et a,ailable- 6he industries 1ere
limited to the follo1ing4 agriculture/ including forestr' and fishing/ manufacturing/
construction/ mining/ utilities and domestic 1or!/ 1hich are !no1n to encompass the
,ast ma*orit' of ,ictims in all regions-
%;
It 1as ne,ertheless decided to treat forced
domestic 1or!ers separatel' from other ,ictims of forced labour e0ploitation- 6his 1as
done for t1o reasons4 first/ because the' represent an important proportion of the
,ictims of forced labour e0ploitation= and second/ because the profits generated b'
domestic 1or! could not be calculated 1ith the same method used for other
producti,e sectors-

1-
This was confirmed 5y the reports of forced la5our collected 5y the $%& for the 2,12 *lo5al 'stimate#

%<

6he economic data (salar'/ occupation and industr') collected in #$%# for the global
estimate of forced labour 1as used to distribute the 1or!ers among economic sectors-
6his distribution should be seen and treated as a 1or!ing h'pothesis for the sole purpose
of estimating the illicit profits from forced labour- 6hese figures should not be Auoted as
ne1 ILO estimates of the number of ,ictims per sector per region-
.e,ertheless/ this distribution 1as assessed 1ith e0isting estimates and ILO !no1ledge on
the patterns of forced labour 1orld1ide-

6able #->- Estimated number of ,ictims of forced labour e0ploitation in the pri,ate econom'
b' sector and region
Region Sectors

8omestic
1or!
Agriculture/
forestr' and
fishing
Construction
manufacturing/
mining and utilities
6otal
Asia-Pacific

%/:$$/$$$
%/$&$/$$$
&/:;$/$$$

;/:$$/$$$
Latin America and the
Caribbean

FD$/$$$
>F$/$$$
%:$/$$$

%/#$$/$$$
Africa

D;$/$$$
%/%>$/$$$
<&$/$$$

#/D$$/$$$
Ciddle East

#;$/$$$
%$/$$$
%F$/$$$

&$$/$$$
Central and South-Eastern
Europe and CIS

>$/$$$
&;$/$$$
DD$/$$$

%/%$$/$$$
8e,eloped Economies
and E+

>$/$$$
D>$/$$$
&F$/$$$

%/$$$/$$$
6otal

>/&&$/$$$
>/D>$/$$$
;/%;$/$$$

%&/#$$/$$$
Source) $%&

In #$%%/ the ILO presented a ne1 estimate of D#-F million domestic workers across the
1orld in #$%$-
%<
6he estimate of >-& million domestic 1or!ers in forced labour used in the
conte0t of this report 1ould result in a ratio of F-D per cent of domestic 1or!ers
1orld1ide in forced labour- Regional disparities could be e0plained b' the specific
proportions of both child and migrant domestic 1or!ers in the ,arious regions- Cigration
of domestic 1or!ers can be internal/ regional or inter-regional/ such as in the Ciddle
East/ 1here almost all migrant domestic 1or!ers come from Asia or Africa-
6he agriculture- forestry and fishing sector/ according to the ILO/ emplo's an estimated
%-> billion 1or!ers 1orld1ide/ or half of the 1orldMs labour force-
%:
3i,en this huge
number of 1or!ers and the ris!s associated 1ith forced labour described earlier/ the >-D
million people conser,ati,el' estimated to be in forced labour in this sector seems

1<
$%&: -o.estic )or1ers across the )orld: Global and regional statistics and the e6tent of legal (rotection
*eneva+ 2,10"#
19
http)>>www#ilo#org>safewor4>areasofwor4>ha3ardous?wor4>:CFS@11,1<<>lang??en>index#htm#
%:

plausible- In man' countries/ agricultural 1or! is largel' informal/ and legal protection of
1or!ers is 1ea!-
#$

In South Asia/ there is still e,idence of bonded labour in agriculture/ resulting in labour
arrangements 1here landless 1or!ers are trapped into e0ploitati,e and coerci,e
1or!ing conditions in e0change for a loan- 6he lo1 1ages associated 1ith high interest
rates ma!e it Auite difficult for 1hole families to escape this ,icious circle-
In Africa/ the traditional forms of K,estiges of sla,er'L are still pre,alent in some countries/
leading to situations 1here 1hole families (adults and children/ men and 1omen) are
forced to 1or! the fields of lando1ners in e0change for food and housing-

In Latin America/ the case of 1or!ers recruited in poor areas and sent to 1or! on
plantations or in logging camps has been 1idel' documented b' national inspection
ser,ices and other actors-
In industriali)ed countries/ the share of migrant 1or!ers in the labour force in this sector is
,er' important- 6his has been documented in the E+/ 1ith a recurrent use of seasonal
migrant 1or!ers for e0ample- In the +nited States/ the .ational Center for Farm1or!er
2ealth Auoted in #$%#
#%
an estimate of more than > million migrant and seasonal
farm1or!ers in the countr'- According to the .ational Agricultural or!ers Sur,e'
(.AS) #$$;P#$$:/ ;# per cent of all farm1or!ers in the +nited States 1ere foreign-born-
6his high share of migrant 1or!ers is reflected in the number of cases of forced labour in
this sector-
6he fishing sector has been documented recentl' as highl' at ris! of using forced labour-
According to the Food and Agriculture Organi)ation of the +nited .ations (FAO)/ an
estimated D&-< million people are 1or!ing in the primar' production of fish/ including ><->
million on fishing ,essels at sea/ of 1hich a large proportion are migrant 1or!ers from
de,eloping countries- 6he necessit' to go increasingl' further from the coasts to reach
abundant fishing grounds leads to more cre1 being emplo'ed in long-distance fishing
operations for long periods of time- 6he isolation resulting from these ne1 fishing
practices creates an en,ironment conduci,e to e0ploitati,e 1or!ing conditions-
Cases of forced labour in construction- manufacturing- mining and utilities are found in
all regions- 6he situation of migrant 1or!ers in debt bondage in bric! !ilns has been
1idel' documented in South Asia- Cigrant 1or!ers are recruited in poor countries to
1or! on construction sites of richer countries all o,er the 1orld- 6his is the case in the
Ciddle East/ 1ith the recruitment of 1or!ers from Asia= in Central and South-Eastern
Europe/ 1ith migrants from poorer countries from the same region= and in .orth America
and the European +nion/ 1ith intraregional or international migration- In some cases/
1or!ers are KpostedL/ 1ith contracts tendered out to companies based in third
countries- In the manufacturing sector/ a clear e0ample of the ris! of forced labour
lin!ed to globali)ation can be found in the garment industr'/ especiall' in lo1-tier
suppliers and home-based manufacturing- Follo1ing a string of reports concerning
forced labour/ this sector has been scrutini)ed for man' 'ears/ and instances of forced

2,
;irst category in the $nternational Standard $ndustrial Classification of !ll 'conomic !ctivities? $S$C+ (ev#6#
21
http)>>www#ncfh#org>docs>fs?FigrantA2,Bemographics#pdf#

#$

labour ha,e been successfull' addressed through/ for e0ample/ "etter or!/ a
partnership programme bet1een the ILO and the International Finance Corporation-
Cases of forced labour 1ere also reported in mining/ either in small-scale mining or in
lo1-s!illed occupations in the sector-

Profits from non(domestic forced labour e)ploitation
In agriculture/ it is possible to distinguish profits made from traditional forms of sla,er'/
debt bondage and migrant 1or!ers-
In the first case/ the 1or!ers recei,e no or ,er' little salar'/ and the 1hole famil' is
in,ol,ed/ pro,iding a large number of 1or!ing hours for crops or herding animals/ 1hich
1ill later be sold at mar!et price- 6he housing and food pro,ided to the landless families
are usuall' of ,er' lo1 ,alue/ leading to ,er' lo1 intermediate e0penditures and high
profits-
6he same applies/ to a certain e0tent/ to migrant 1or!ers/ 1hose salaries do not account
for the high number of 1or!ing hours imposed on them through the ,arious means of
coercion- 6he freAuent cases of isolation ma!e these forms of e0ploitation possible- In
some instances/ it has been sho1n ho1 abusi,e emplo'ers profit from the isolation b'
forcing 1or!ers to bu' food and basic items from their shops at prices much higher than
mar!et price- In addition/ migrant 1or!ers are li!el' to ha,e paid huge recruitment and
transportation fees/ 1hich ma' be transformed into debt b' the recruiter or emplo'er/
1ho 1ill in turn impose high interest rates- All these elements are combined to increase
the lando1ner?s or emplo'er?s profits-
8ebt bondage has been 1idel' studied in South Asia in particular/ and it has been
sho1n ho1 recruiters abuse the ,ulnerabilit' of poor landless farmers/ offering 1age
ad,ances that are later translated into strong means of coercion to impose more 1or!
and lo1er 1ages-
6he recent ILO report/ Caught at sea: "orced labour and traffic(ing in fisheries/
##

re,ealed the mechanisms of recruitment/ deception and coercion e0isting in this sector-
6he use of inadeAuatel' trained and informed migrant 1or!ers/ the isolation of 1or!ers
for months 1hile at sea/ regulator' gaps and the lac! of la1 enforcement 1ere sho1n
as leading factors of forced labour and human traffic!ing in the sector- "' underpa'ing
these migrant 1or!ers/ forcing them to 1or! e0tremel' long hours 1ith no 1ee!l' rest
and not respecting safet' la1s/ the o1ners of these ,essels are able to increase their
profits-
In the construction sector/ cases of forced labour leading to huge illicit profits are
regularl' reported- Some cases on construction sites in Eastern Europe/ for e0ample/
relied on both deception and corruption- Cigrant 1or!ers are brought illegall' to 1or!
on a construction site/ 1ithout !no1ing the 1or!ing conditions or terms of pa'ment-
6here/ the' disco,er that the' are forced to li,e together in a remote place pro,ided b'

22
$%&) Caught at 4ea Forced Labour and 5raffic1ing in Fisheries *eneva+ 2,10"#
#%

the emplo'er (to a,oid police controls) and told that the' 1ill be paid onl' at the end of
the construction- A fe1 da's before the end/ 1hen the 1or! is done and 1ages are
due/ the o1ner ma' call a la1 enforcement officer to inform him of the presence of
irregular migrants- 6he 1or!ers are then deported and the emplo'er does not need to
pa' them- All due 1ages (minus the bribe) increase the profits made/ than!s to the 1or!
of the abused migrants-
In bric! !ilns/ mechanisms of debt bondage lin!ed to ad,ances paid before recruitment
ha,e been sho1n to be e0tensi,el' used b' !iln o1ners to coerce the 1or!ers/ force
them to 1or! more/ accept lo1 1ages and sta' until the end of the season/ or e,en
force them to come bac! the follo1ing 'ear/ up to the repa'ment of the loan- 6he lo1
piece rate applied leads to emplo'ment of entire families/ to increase production and
reach the Auota associated to the 1age promised-
6hese are a fe1 e0amples on ho1 threats/ ,iolence/ deception and coercion are used
b' recruiters and emplo'ers to increase profits generated b' the 1or! of their
emplo'ees-
It is estimated that the profits made 1ith the 1orld?s %$-; million ,ictims of non-domestic
forced labour e0ploitation reach +SQ&>-& billion per 'ear/ 1ith an a,erage annual profit
of +SQ&/$$$ per ,ictim- 6his profit is estimated to be the result of the e0ploitation of ,ictims
in agriculture on the one hand/ and industrial sectors (construction/ manufacturing
mining and utilities) on the other-

6able #-&- Estimated annual profits from non-domestic pri,ate forced labour b' sector and
region (+SQ)
Region Agriculture Other labour 6otal
Asia-Pacific
&$$/$$$/$$$ %>/&$$/$$$/$$$ %>/<$$/$$$/$$$
Caribbean
#$$/$$$/$$$ <$$/$$$/$$$ %/$$$/$$$/$$$
Africa
%/%$$/$$$/$$$ #/<$$/$$$/$$$ >/:$$/$$$/$$$
Ciddle East
#$/$$$/$$$ F$$/$$$/$$$ F$$/$$$/$$$
Central and South-
Eastern Europe and CIS
;$$/$$$/$$$ >/$$$/$$$/$$$ >/F$$/$$$/$$$
8e,eloped Economies
and E+
F/&$$/$$$/$$$ %&/$$$/$$$/$$$ #$/D$$/$$$/$$$
6otal
</:$$/$$$/$$$ >&/D$$/$$$/$$$ &>/&$$/$$$/$$$
Source) $%&

Forced labour profits in agriculture are lo1er than the sum of other sectors/
#>
but are
Auite significant in terms of the number of 1or!ers- It is estimated that more than a third
of the ,ictims of forced labour in non-domestic sectors 1or! in agriculture
#&
(including

20
$ndustries /+ C+ B+ ' and ; from $S$C (ev#6#
26
!s per $S$C (ev#6+ grouped under this industry are) agriculture+ fishing and forestry# .er definition) This
section includes the exploitation of vegetal and animal natural resources+ comprising the activities of growing

##

fishing and forestr' as per the ISIC definition)/ amounting to >-D million of the %$-; million
people in forced labour e0ploitation other than forced domestic 1or!-
"ased on the calculations/ the a,erage profit per ,ictim is lo1er in agriculture than in
other sectors in all regions- 6his reflects the lo1 ,alue added of agriculture 1orld1ide-

6able #-D- A,erage annual profit per ,ictim (+SQ)
Region Agriculture Other labour
Asia-Pacific
&$$ #/;$$
Latin America and the Caribbean
;$$ &/%$$
Africa
%/$$$ >/>$$
Ciddle East
#/:$$ >/F$$
Central and South-Eastern Europe and
CIS
%/&$$ D/&$$
8e,eloped Economies and E+
%#/#$$ >$/&$$
6otal
#/D$$ &/<$$
Source) $%&

Methodology
6he definition of profits is the same as that of the #$$D 1or!ing paper4

1here is the number of forced labour ,ictims under economic e0ploitation per
region per sector/ is the ,alue added accruing to labour per region per sector/ and
the 1ages paid to forced labour ,ictims per region per sector-
6o calculate the profits made from the use of forced labour in the pri,ate sector/
e0cluding domestic 1or!/ the ,alue added approach is used/ combined 1ith
information from the #$%# 3lobal Estimate database- 6he procedure to estimate the
,alue added accruing to labour ,aries/ depending on 1hether it is applied to the
agriculture sector or other sectors (construction/ manufacturing/ mining and utilities)-
In the case of the agricultural sector/ information on the ,alue added per 1or!er from
the orld 8e,elopment Indicators (#$$F) 1as used- For each countr'/ the ,alue added
per 1or!er accruing to labour is calculated as4

of crops+ raising and 5reeding of animals+ harvesting of tim5er and other plants+ animals or animal products
from a farm or their natural ha5itats##
#>

1here is the ,alue added per 1or!er/ the ,alue added accruing to labour/
and the conser,ati,e labour share estimated to be t1o-thirds- Correcting for an'
missing ,alues and aggregating in each region/ the a,erage ,alue added per 1or!er in
agriculture is obtained as4

1here / 1ith being the response 1eight and the population
1eighting-
Once the regional ,alue added per 1or!er accruing to labour has been established/
the profits of forced labour ,ictims are obtained as the difference bet1een the ,alue
added per 1or!er accruing to labour and the 1age earnings of forced labour ,ictims/
multiplied b' the number of ,ictims in each region/ i-e-4

6o calculate the 1age earnings of forced labour ,ictims/ economic data on 1ages of
,ictims stored in the #$%# 3lobal Estimate database 1ere used- 6he highest-reported
earnings of the ,ictims of forced labour in each sector are selected and/ in cases 1here
such information is missing for all ,ictims from this region 1or!ing in this sector/ it is
assumed that the ,ictims earn the eAui,alent of +SQ% Purchasing Po1er Parit' in a
selected countr' of that region- 6he ratio of earnings 1ith respect to the minimum 1age
of the countr' in 1hich this information is found is used as a representati,e percentage
for all countries in that region to estimate the earnings of forced labour ,ictims in each
countr' of that region- A 1eighted a,erage regional minimum 1age is then calculated/
using 1eights 1hich are generated to ta!e into account the si)e of the labour force in
the sector and to correct for non-response-
In the other industrial sectors/ a similar methodolog' is used- 6he main difference is/
ho1e,er/ in the calculation of the ,alue added accruing to labour in each region- Firstl'/
as information on the a,erage earnings of medium- to lo1-s!illed 1or!ers 1as
a,ailable
#D
(contrar' to the agricultural sector/ 1here it 1as scarce)/ the ,alue added
per 1or!er is calculated as the ratio of the a,erage monthl' earnings of a 1or!er and
the conser,ati,e labour share for each of the three sectors (construction/
manufacturing/ mining and utilities)/ i-e-4

1here va
cs
is the ,alue added per 1or!er accruing to labour in countr' c in sector s/ and
aecs is the a,erage earnings of medium- to lo1-s!illed 1or!ers in countr' c in sector s-
6hese are then 1eighted for non-response and b' the si)e of the labour force in each of

29
$nformation was ta4en from the $%& data5ase on la5our statistics operated 5y the $%& Bepartment of
Statistics %!/&(ST!" on the average earnings of individuals in 191 occupations $SC&?<<" in various countries#
The occupations are then reclassified 5ased on the s4ill level# Those in low?to?middle s4ills are 4ept and
regrouped 5ased on the industry of employment $S$C ('G 6"#

#&

the sectors- 6he regional 1eighted a,erage is then estimated as the a,erage ,alue
added per 1or!er accruing to labour using4

1here the final 1eights are / 1ith being the response 1eights and
the population 1eights- An a,erage of these ,alues is ta!en in each region to
obtain the ,alue added for each region in other non-agricultural non-domestic sectors/
var- 6o obtain the a,erage earnings of forced labour ,ictims in each of these regions/
the methodolog' described for the agricultural sector is used- 6he e0ception is/ ho1e,er/
that once the sector specific 1ages/ wrs/ are obtained/ the' are 1eighted b' the
number of forced labour ,ictims in each sector/ / and an a,erage is ta!en/ i-e-4

Annual profits are calculated as the difference bet1een the ,alue added accruing to
labour in the region and the 1ages of the ,ictims of the region/ multiplied b' the number
of ,ictims in the region and %#/ i-e-4

"ased on the data a,ailable in the #$%# 3lobal Estimate database/ the monthl'
a,erage earnings of forced labour ,ictims 1ere estimated b' sector and region-

6able #-F- A,erage monthl' earnings per ,ictim of forced labour b' sector and region (+SQ)
Conthl' a,erage earnings per ,ictim (+SQ)

Region Agriculture Other labour
Asia-Pacific
#>->; %F#-;$
Latin America and the Caribbean
%>D-< %D:-;
Africa
D-; >D-%
Ciddle East
>>-& %%;
Central and South-Eastern Europe and CIS
:&-> &;
>#; &<>
Source) $%&

#D

Profits from forced labour in domestic work
It is estimated that nearl' +SQ< billion are literall' stolen annuall' from the >-& million
domestic 1or!ers in forced labour 1orld1ide- 6his estimate is based on data collected
b' the ILO for the #$%# 3lobal Estimate/ 1hich sho1s that domestic 1or!ers in forced
labour are effecti,el' depri,ed/ on a,erage/ of F$ per cent of their due 1ages-
As noted in the ILO #$$D 1or!ing paper/ domestic ser,ices create an economic ,alue
added/ and therefore the sa,ings made b' the emplo'er on e0penditures count as
profits- 6he stolen 1ages consist of a combination of monthl' 1ages (1hich are lo1er
than 1hat the' should be)/ abusi,e deductions for housing and food/ and illegal
deductions for recruitment costs-
6he global figure and regional distribution of the number of domestic 1or!ers in forced
labour 1ere estimated b' combining the follo1ing4 the share of reported cases of
forced domestic 1or! in the #$%# 3lobal Estimate database of all reported cases of
forced labour e0ploitation in the pri,ate econom'= the regional distribution of domestic
1or!ers as estimated b' the ILO in #$%#=
#F
and the regional pre,alence (per %/$$$
inhabitants) of forced labour as estimated in #$%# 1eighted b' the relati,e proportion of
li,e-in domestic 1or!ers across the regions-
#;

6able #-;- A,erage annual profits of forced domestic 1or! (+SQ)
Profits of forced
domestic 1or!
.o- of ,ictims
domestic 1or!ers
Annual profits Annual profit per
,ictim
Asia-Pacific %/:$$/$$$ F/>$$/$$$/$$$ >/>$$
Caribbean FD$/$$$ D$$/$$$/$$$ <$$
Africa D;$/$$$ >$$/$$$/$$$ F$$
Ciddle East #;$/$$$ &$$/$$$/$$$ %/&$$
Europe and CIS >$/$$$ %$$/$$$/$$$ %/;$$
8e,eloped Economies and E+ >$/$$$ #$$/$$$/$$$ ;/D$$
6otal >/&&$/$$$ ;/:$$/$$$/$$$ #/>$$
Source) $%&

For the special case of domestic 1or!ers/ 1here ,alue added is not directl' measurable/
profits are estimated as the difference bet1een 1hat domestic 1or!ers in forced labour
earn on a,erage/ and 1hat their counterparts 1ho are not in forced labour should earn-
6he economic data stored in the #$%# 3lobal Estimate database of reported cases of

26
http)>>www#ilo#org>wcmsp9>groups>pu5lic>???ed@protect>???protrav>???
travail>documents>pu5lication>wcms@199991#pdf#
2-
/ased on expert Hudgement and on a selected num5er of country studies#

#F

forced labour sho1 that/ on a,erage/ domestic 1or!ers in forced labour are depri,ed of
F$ per cent of their due 1ages- 6he 1ages earned b' forced labour ,ictims in each
sector of each region 1ere first estimated using economic information a,ailable in the
global database/ then sorted out into regions and then sectors- For each region/ the
1ages earned b' ,ictims 1ere con,erted into +S dollars and the highest reported 1age
1as selected as the 1age earned b' forced labour ,ictims- 6he percentage of stolen
1age 1as then estimated b' comparing the earnings of forced domestic 1or!ers in a
countr' 1ith the national minimum 1age or a,erage 1ages paid to domestic 1or!ers in
that countr'- 6his ratio 1as used to calculate the ratio of stolen 1age 1orld1ide-
6his amount of stolen 1ages/ or profit/ ,aries bet1een +SQD$ per month in Africa and
more than +SQF$$ per month in 8e,eloped Economies-
6he profits are estimated 1ith the simple formula of the difference bet1een the 1ages
earned (obtained from the global database)/ / and the a,erage 1ages domestic
1or!ers should get if 1or!ing freel' in the corresponding regions/ -4

1here is the number of forced labour ,ictims (domestic 1or!ers) in region -
From the ILO database of reported cases of forced labour/ it is estimated that/ on global
a,erage4
! ), .

Profits from forced se)ual e)ploitation
In addition to the coercion/ threats and ,iolence inflicted on the ,ictims of forced se0ual
e0ploitation/ one common feature is that the ,ictim is not paid b' the client/ 1ho instead
must pa' the agent (or pimp) or brothel o1ner directl'- Can' testimonies collected in
Aualitati,e sur,e's on this issue confirm this- 6he ,ictim is una1are of the amount the
client has paid- 6here are also man' instances of debt bondage/ especiall' in the case
of migrant ,ictims/ 1here the e0ploiter !eeps all of the ,ictimMs earnings for months/
1ithout an' proper accounting/ ostensibl' to reimburse the tra,el cost- In most cases of
documented forced se0ual e0ploitation/ a 1hole chain of traffic!ers and e0ploiters
benefits4 the recruiter 1ho imposes high recruitment fees= the people in charge of tra,el
and transport/ 1ho ma!e sure the ,ictim safel' reaches the place of e0ploitation=
corrupted la1 enforcement paid to close their e'es to ob,ious cases of illegal migration
or e0ploitation= o1ners of flats or houses= companies in charge of ad,ertising= and/ of
course/ the brothel o1ner or manager of the prostitution net1or!s-
6he profits made on pornograph' using children or 1omen against their 1ill are
e0tremel' difficult to estimate and 1ere not ta!en into account in the current estimate/
#;

ma!ing the assumption for the calculation of the profits that all ,ictims of forced se0ual
e0ploitation 1or! as prostitutes-
As in #$$D/ it should be noted that the fact that se0 1or! is referred to as an acti,it'/ and
that the re,enue it generates is estimated/ does not impl' that the ILO endorses or
legitimi)es it-
6he total annual profits made from forced se0ual e0ploitation are estimated at +SQ::
billion 1orld1ide- 6he profits are highest in Asia due to the large number of ,ictims/ but
annual profits per ,ictim are highest in 8e,eloped Economies (+SQ<$/$$$) and the
Ciddle East (+SQDD/$$$)/ due to the high a,erage price of se0ual encounters-

6able #-<- Annual profits from forced se0ual e0ploitation (+SQ)
Region .umber
of ,ictims
Conthl'
earnings
per ,ictim
(Bara/ #$$:)
Annual profits Annual
profit per
,ictim
Asia-Pacific
# D$$ $$$ % &<D >% ;$$ $$$ $$$ %# $$$
Caribbean
&$$
$$$
> #$$ %$ &$$ $$$ $$$ #; $$$
Africa
<$$
$$$
% >$$ < :$$ $$$ $$$ %% $$$
Ciddle East
%$$
$$$
F D%$ ; D$$ $$$ $$$ DD $$$
Europe and CIS
>$$
$$$
D $&$ %& >$$ $$$ $$$ &# $$$
>$$
$$$
: D&$ #F #$$ $$$ $$$ <$ $$$
6otal
& D$$ $$$
:: $$$ $$$ $$$ ## $$$
Source) $%&

Methodology
In the case of forced se0ual e0ploitation/ information on the ,alue added is una,ailable
because of the nature of the 1or!- Similar to the ILO?s #$$D 1or!ing paper and Bara?s
#$$: stud'/ the profits 1ere estimated on the basis of estimated earnings of forced
labour ,ictims per encounter- In the absence of ILO figures on the number of encounters
per month of each ,ictim of forced se0ual e0ploitation/ and the a,erage earnings per
encounter/ regional estimates published b' Bara are relied upon- 6he #$$D ILO
assumption that the profits made b' the e0ploiter are around ;$ per cent of the amount
paid b' the clients is maintained-

#<

6he estimate of the regional profits made is then replaced b' the use of forced labour
,ictims in se0ual e0ploitation/ calculated as4

b'

1here represents the a,erage regional intermediate consumption/ is the a,erage
regional price per encounter/ is the number of encounters/ and is the a,erage
regional 1ages of the ,ictims- In the second formula/ used for this report/ is the
monthl' amount from sale of se0 in the region r/ as estimated b' Bara (#$$:)- is the
number of forced labour ,ictims in se0ual e0ploitation-
#:

Chapter *
&ha" ma#es 'eo'le $ulnerable "o forced labour(
,er the last decade/ the ILO has supported the efforts of ,arious national
go,ernments and national statistical bodies to carr' out sur,e's and data
collection programmes 1ith the aim of stud'ing the e0tent and conditions of
forced labour- 6he current anal'sis is based on sur,e's carried out in eight countries/ 1ith
three different target groups4 all members of a household (D 'ears of age and abo,e)=
children (D to %; 'ears of age)= and returned adult migrants- 6hese three populations
1ere chosen according to the form of forced labour that 1as more li!el' to ta!e place
in the countr'- 6he main purpose of this chapter is to stud' the factors that ma!e
indi,iduals ,ulnerable to forced labour-
In 3uatemala/ .epal and the .iger/ 1here forced labour is li!el' to affect both adults
and children from a same household/ all members of the household 1ere sur,e'ed- A
$robit model 1as used as the basis of the anal'sis- In these three countries/ the
Plurinational State of "oli,ia
#<
and CNte d?I,oire/ special attention 1as gi,en to the
situation of children-
6hree of the eight sur,e's targeted returned migrants in the CIS area/ namel' Armenia/
3eorgia and the Republic of Coldo,a- For these countries/ the determinants of forced
labour among returned migrants using a trivariate $robit model 1ith double selection
are presented in this report- 6he purpose is to understand 1hat factors ma!e migrants
,ulnerable to forced labour at their destination)
6his chapter starts 1ith a brief literature re,ie1 on the determinants of forced labour and
continues 1ith a descripti,e anal'sis of the ,ictims of forced labour found in the sur,e's/
the methodolog' used and the results obtained through an anal'sis of ILO data sets-
Theoretical discussion of the determinants of forced labour
In the last decades/ a number of studies ha,e focused on sla,er' and its impact on
economic de,elopment- One h'pothesis is that increases in labour suppl' ma!e sla,er'
and forced labour a less attracti,e option/ 1ith the phenomenon occurring less in
capital intensi,e sectors-
#:
Others/ ho1e,er/ ha,e argued that the effect of population
gro1th 1ill depend on production technolog' and the non-tradable s!ills that ne1

2<
The survey in the .lurinational State of /olivia was a Child %a5our Survey+ which was not designed
specifically to measure forced la5our of children# The num5er of Cuestions used to assess forced la5our was
smaller than in other surveys and the a5solute num5er of victims was also smaller# This may explain that the
results are not as solid as for the other countries and that the results Cuite often differ in the .lurinational
State of /olivia compared to other surveys#
29
'# Bomar) The Causes of Slavery or Serfdom) ! Iypothesis+ in 5he 8ournal of Econo.ic 3istory 19-,+ Gol#
0,+ 2o# 1"+ pp# 1<?02#
O

>$

labour mar!et entrants possess/ especiall' in the agrarian econom'-
>$
For e0ample/ in a
stud' on the re,ersal of fortunes among countries coloni)ed b' European countries in
the past D$$ 'ears/ it 1as found that in regions 1here population densit' 1as high and
labour relati,el' abundant/ the European countries 1ere more li!el' to emplo' labour-
coerci,e practices- 6he stud' hence emphasi)ed the importance of the relationship
bet1een labour suppl' and labour coercion-
>%

6he argument 1as further de,eloped in subseAuent studies-
>#
Although coercion is
sociall' inefficient/ it al1a's increases the efforts made b' agents- or!ers 1ith fe1er
outside options are coerced more and pro,ide higher le,els of effort in eAuilibrium- 6he
scarcit' of labour encourages coercion through the labour demand effect/ as it leads to
an increase in the price of outputs/ increasing the ,alue of effort and thus ma!ing labour
coercion a producti,e ,enture for producers- 2o1e,er/ the scarcit' of labour also
decreases labour coercion through the outside option effect- In fact/ labour scarcit'
increases the marginal product of labour in competing sectors of the econom' and
therefore increases the outside options/ thus discouraging coercion- In addition/ it could
be demonstrated that there is an economies of scale effect/ 1ith the relati,e
abundance of e0ploitable labour ma!ing coercion profitable-
In %:<&/ another stud' 1as published
>>
that e0tended the transaction-costs model to
stud' the e0tent ordinar' benefits and pain incenti,es (threats and ,iolence)
respecti,el' affect indi,iduals in terms of ho1 careful the' are and the effort the' e0ert-
hile threats or ,iolence ma' ma!e indi,iduals e0ert more effort/ it 1ill ma!e them
careless- On the other hand/ monetar' incenti,es 1ill ma!e 1or!ers more careful but
li!el' to e0ert less effort/ as the benefit 1ill be recei,ed not generall' as immediatel' as
the pain 1ould be inflicted if the' should not e0ert enough effort- 6he %:<& stud' finds
that the former are in general more effort-intensi,e than care-intensi,e as opposed to
the latter/ and concludes that super,ision is able to cheapl' counter ill 1ill/ and therefore
posits that sla,es in care-intensi,e *obs 1ill most often be moti,ated b' re1ards rather
than pain-
6he impact of incenti,es/ both re1ards and threats/ has also been studied= the
conclusion is that ,ictims of forced labour 1here ,iolence is in,ol,ed are often ,er' poor
indi,iduals 1ith e0tremel' limited options-
>&
hile the effect of labour suppl'
(abundance ,ersus scarcit') might appear slightl' ambiguous/ it is an important
determining factor in the ris! of ending up in forced labour- In addition/ po,ert' and the
lac! of outside options for indi,iduals also remain important ris! factors- 6he presence of

0,
J# Conning) The Causes of Slavery or Serfdom and the (oads to !grarian Capitalism) BomarKs Iypothesis
(evisited+ 0or1ing /a(er 901 Iunter College) Fanuscript+ 2,,6"#
01
B# !cemoglu et al#) (eversal of ;ortune) *eography and $nstitutions in the Fa4ing of the Fodern :orld
$ncome Bistri5ution+ in 5he :uaterly 8ournal of Econo.ics 2,,2+ 11-6""+ pp# 1201 ? 1296#
02
B# !cemoglu and !#:olit34y#) The 'conomics of %a5our Coercion+ in Econo.etrica 2,11+ -9+2"+ pp# 999 ?
6,,# The findings are consistent with (# ;ogel and S# 'ngerman) 5i.e on the Cross: 5he Econo.ics of $.erican
egro 4lavery /oston+ %ittle /rown+ 19-6"#
00
S# ;enoaltea) Slavery and Supervision in Comparative .erspective) ! Fodel+ in 5he 8ournal of Econo.ic
3istory 19<6+ Gol# 66+ 2o#0"+ pp# 609 ? 60<#
06
F#S#E# Chwe) :hy were wor4ers whippedL .ain in a .rincipal?!gent Fodel+ in 5he Econo.ic 8ournal
199,+ 1,,"+ pp# 11,9 ? 1121#
>%

sla,er' in the past can be associated 1ith increased po,ert'/ lo1 educational
enrolment in these regions and land ineAualit'-
>D

+escripti%e analysis of the %ictims of forced labour
In this section/ the focus is on the descripti,e anal'sis of the data used in stud'ing the
determinants of forced labour among different subgroups of the population- It is
important to note that these results cannot be used to compare the situation of 1or!ers
bet1een the countries studied/ as the sur,e' design 1as specific to each countr'- hile
some sur,e's (the .iger) 1ere national sur,e's targeting all households in the countr'/
others (.epal and 3uatemala) targeted groups !no1n to be highl' ,ulnerable to forced
labour- 6he target groups in .epal 1ere 2ali'a (landless agricultural labourers in far-
1estern .epal/ mostl' from the 8alit communit')/ 2aru1a (people 1ho plough land for
others in e0change for land to culti,ate or to repa' a debt) and Charu1a (people
mainl' emplo'ed for herding cattle)- 6he aim 1as to understand the patterns of forced
labour among these populations rather than to estimate the pre,alence of forced
labour in the entire countr'- Coreo,er/ the sur,e's in .epal and 3uatemala 1ere not
national sur,e's but limited to some pro,inces-
Indica"ors of forced labour
According to the ILO?s sur,e' guidelines/ an indi,idual is considered to be 1or!ing in
forced labour if he or she 1as not freel' recruited and faced some form of penalt' at
the time of recruitment/ had to 1or! and li,es under duress and the menace of an'
penalt' or cannot lea,e the emplo'er because of the menace of a penalt'-
>F

As per the sur,e' design/ the population studied in 3uatemala had the highest rate of
emplo'ment compared to the target population sur,e'ed in .epal or the .iger- In the
three countries/ forced labour 1as estimated among emplo'ed people- Of those
emplo'ed in the .iger/ it is estimated that %-< per cent 1ere 1or!ing as forced labourers-
6his is a national figure and hence is much lo1er than .epal?s %$-%& per cent and
3uatemala?s %$-#D per cent/ 1hich had been estimated 1ithin a specific target
population that 1as e0tremel' ,ulnerable to forced labour-

09
B# !cemoglu et al#) ;inding 'ldorado) Slavery and %ong?run Bevelopment in Colom5ia+ in 8ournal of
Co.(arative Econo.ics 2,12+ Gol# 6,6""+ pp# 906 ? 966#
06
Befinitions of varia5les are in the annex# See also $%&) 3ard to see, harder to count: 4urvey guidelines to
esti.ate forced labour of adults and children *eneva+ 2,12"#

>#

6able >-%4 Indicators of forced labour in the household (adults and children/ T)
Indicator .epal 6he .iger 3uatemala
Emplo'ed (1ithin the sample)
>D-$ F<-F <F-#
Forced labour
%$-% %-< %$-#
.ot freel' recruited
:-% %-: #%-D
Impossibilit' to lea,e
D-: - #-$
Limited freedom
&-> %-> -
Li,e and 1or! under duress
- - &F-%
8ependent indi,idual
;-< #-% -
8ependent household
- >-F -
Labour rights ,iolation
%&-F - -
Coerced9,iolence
%#-; %-%
>;
%>-F
3uardian in forced labour
- #-:
;
%;-:
;

Source) $%&
Bash M " means missing value#

+nfree recruitment 1as ,er' common in 3uatemala 1here more than &$ per cent of
emplo'ed indi,iduals 1ere recruited either through deception or coercion- Indi,iduals
also faced restrictions in ,arious forms/ including limited freedom and impossibilit' to
lea,e the emplo'er- Some 1ere not allo1ed to communicate 1ith other famil'
members- In most cases/ emplo'ers resorted to the use of ,arious threats to !eep
emplo'ees at 1or!- 6his phenomenon 1as also common in .epal 1here/ in se,eral
cases/ indi,iduals 1ere not allo1ed to lea,e their emplo'ers until all debts had been
paid off-
Some indi,iduals 1ere also highl' dependent on their emplo'ers (< per cent of the
households affected b' forced labour in the target groups in .epal and #-%& per cent of
those emplo'ed in the .iger) for purposes not directl' related to 1or!/ such as food and
housing- 6his can also be the case for households as a 1hole- In 3uatemala/ about half
of emplo'ed indi,iduals 1ere li,ing and 1or!ing under duress- Labour rights ,iolations
1ere onl' measured in .epal and affected %&-F# per cent of emplo'ed indi,iduals-
Coerci,e means such as ,iolence/ threats of ,iolence/ confiscation of documents and
ph'sical/ se0ual and emotional abuse affected bet1een %#-F: per cent and %>-D: per
cent of emplo'ed indi,iduals in .epal and 3uatemala- In the .iger/ onl' children 1ere
anal'sed for coercion= less than # per cent 1ere affected- hen parents are in forced
labour/ their children also become ,ulnerable to it- 6hat 1as the case in 3uatemala 1ith
appro0imatel' %;-:D per cent of emplo'ed children ha,ing guardians 1ho 1ere
considered to be in forced labour or ,ulnerable to forced labour-
In the Plurinational State of "oli,ia and CNte d?I,oire/ the focus 1as on children- O,er
one-Auarter of the children in both countries 1ere economicall' acti,e- Children are

0-
Children only#
>>

often forced to remain 1ith their emplo'ers either through the refusal of emplo'ers to
allo1 them to lea,e or through debt bondage and the issuing of threats-

6able >-#4 Indicators of forced child labour (T)
Indicator .epal
><
6he .iger
>:
3uatemala
&$
P-S- of
"oli,ia
&%

CNte
d?I,oire
&#

Emplo'ed &-: D$-&: <%-# >>-D #F-D
Forced labour (among
emplo'ed children) %-# #-< F-; %-% #-#
.ot freel' recruited %-$ >-$ %<-$ $-> &-:
Impossibilit' to lea,e &-& %-D %-: %-# D-F
Li,e and 1or! under duress
- - :>-; - -
8ependent
- %-> - - -
Father in forced labour
- %-D - - -
Cother in forced labour
- %-% - - -
Coercion97iolence >-< %-% <-D #-# -
Source) $%&

In the case of returned migrants/ information on coerci,e recruitment 1as onl' a,ailable
in Armenia/ 1here the main forms of coercion used in recruitment 1ere debt bondage
(& per cent) and the confiscation of documents (%-;F per cent)- "' borro1ing mone'
from other indi,iduals/ the migrants became ,ulnerable to accepting 1hate,er *ob the'
are presented to pa' bac! the loans o1ed-
Cigrants are also sometimes recruited through abuse- Recruiters ma' ta!e ad,antage of
their recruits for specific reasons using different methods- 6he most common form of this
!ind of recruitment reported b' Armenian returned migrants 1as abuse of a difficult
financial situation (%D-&> per cent)- Some recruiters also too! ad,antage of the irregular
status of their ,ictims once the' reached their destination countries (D->D per cent) and
the difficult famil' situation of the indi,iduals (&-:: per cent)-
6hrough decepti,e recruitment/ migrants are promised lucrati,e *obs 1ith good
emplo'ers/ onl' to find often that most or all of the promises made at the time of

0<
This figure is not representative of the situation of children in 2epal# $t was only measured in a limited
group#
09
&rganisation internationale du Travail &$T" et $nstitut 2ational de la StatistiCue du 2iger $2S?2iger")
'a((ort de l;en<u=te nationale sur le travail des enfants au iger de "009 *enNve+ 2,11"#
6,
This figure is not representative of the situation of children in *uatemala# $t was only measured in a specific
target group#
61
See Children at ris4 of forced la5our in /olivia) !n analysis 5ased on child la5our surveys+ June 2,1,+ 2ot
pu5lished#
62
FinistNre de la ;onction .u5liCue et de l7'mploi+ $nstitut 2ational de la StatistiCue de la COte d7$voire) Le
travail des enfants en C>te d;+voire ? (artir de l;En<u=te sur le iveau de @ie des 2Anages "00B /$T+ COte
d7$voire+ 2,1,"#

>&

recruitment are not fulfilled- In both the Republic of Coldo,a and Armenia/ the most
common form of deception reported in,ol,ed 1ages- 6he ,ictims often recei,ed 1ages
that 1ere much lo1er than initiall' promised or had their earnings unla1full' retained-
Others ended up in 1or!ing conditions that 1ere 1orse than promised/ or in entirel'
different *obs- Some of the returned migrants 1ere forced to accept *obs/ tas!s or 1or!
under unacceptable conditions- 6he' 1ere freAuentl' forced to sta' longer at their
place of 1or! to get paid- Others had to do e0cessi,e 1or!/ sometimes 1ithout pa'-

6able >->4 Indicators of forced labour among returned migrants (T)
Indicator Rep- of Coldo,a
&>
Armenia
&&
3eorgia
&D

Forced labour9traffic!ing
<-# D-: <-D
.ot freel' recruited
%&-%F %&-F> -
E0ploitati,e 1or!ing conditions
&$-%# DD-$; ;%-#&
Coerced
<-%F D-<< %$-#%
Source) $%&
Components may not add up to the total 5ecause of rounding# Bash ? " means missing value#

6he main forms of e0ploitati,e 1or!ing conditions that returned migrants in all three
countries 1ere reported to ha,e faced include lo1 salaries/ dela'ed pa'ments/
imposed poor li,ing conditions/ e0cessi,e 1or! and the lac! of social protection- In the
Republic of Coldo,a/ for e0ample/ &D-F& per cent of returned migrants had to 1or! for
little or no pa' 1hile #&-<D per cent recei,ed late pa'ments- In Armenia and 3eorgia the
results 1ere almost similar/ 1ith #$-## per cent and %:-;F per cent respecti,el' 1or!ing
for little or no salar'- 6he returned migrants often faced multiple forms of e0ploitation-
6o !eep migrants 1or!ing under these conditions/ some form of coercion 1as usuall'
applied- 6he main form of coercion used 1as the 1ithholding of salar'/ for %>-D per cent
of Coldo,an/ F-$: per cent of Armenian and :-F# per cent of 3eorgian returned
migrants- About &->< per cent of Coldo,an returned migrants 1ere threatened 1ith
financial punishment/ 1hile D-%& per cent of Armenian returned migrants and &-$< per
cent of 3eorgian returned migrants 1ere threatened 1ith financial punishment or !ept
in isolation-
Returned migrants 1ere not considered as freel' recruited if the' 1ere recruited under
false pretences/ made to 1or! in a different location from that initiall' agreed/ in a
different t'pe of *ob or 1ith a different emplo'er/ under conditions not specified in the
contract signed/ or if recruited coerci,el' or b' abuse of ,ulnerabilit'/ etc- 6he' 1ere
considered as e0ploited if the' had to 1or! e0cessi,e hours/ li,e or 1or! under poor

60
%a5our migration from Foldova) ;rom successful migration to forced la5ourP+ !pril 2,1,#
66
%a5our migration from !rmenia in 2,,<?2,,9) %a5our migration trends and insight into migration
experiences+ Fay 2,1,# 2ot pu5lished#
69
%a5our migration and ris4 of traffic4ing from *eorgia+ 2,,<+ 2ational centre of the research resources and
statistics+ !pril 2,1,#
>D

conditions/ if the' 1ere paid ,er' lo1 salaries/ faced ,iolence from emplo'ers and
colleagues/ carried out ha)ardous 1or! 1ith no protection/ or did not recei,e social
protection- 6he' 1ere considered as 1or!ing under coercion if the' had to 1or! under
,iolence or threats of ,iolence/ ph'sical or other1ise/ if forced to 1or! to pa' bac!
loans/ threatened 1ith denunciation to authorities/ or had documents confiscated-
"ased on this classification/ bet1een &$ per cent and ;# per cent of the returned
migrants faced some form of e0ploitation and another <P%% per cent 1ere coerced-
Roughl' %D per cent faced some form of deception during the recruitment process-
Demora'hics
6here appears to be an ambiguous relationship bet1een age and forced labour- At the
le,el of the household (both adults and children)/ the a,erage age of forced labour
,ictims 1as much lo1er than that of 1or!ers not in forced labour in all countries e0cept
3uatemala- Focusing on *ust children/ the difference bet1een the ages of the freel'
emplo'ed children and those engaged as forced labour is onl' slight- Again/ 'ounger
children appear to be more ,ulnerable to forced labour in all countries e0cept in the
Plurinational State of "oli,ia and 3uatemala- 6he differences are significant in all cases-
Among returned migrants/ the a,erage age of those 1ho became ,ictims to forced
labour 1as lo1er than that of those 1ho found 1or! as free labourers- 6hus/ on the
1hole/ it appears that forced labour ,ictims are much 'ounger e0cept in the
Plurinational State of "oli,ia and 3uatemala/ 1here the' are slightl' older-
Focusing on gender/ 1omen are generall' under-represented in the labour mar!et-
According to the ILO/ the emplo'ment-to-population ratio 1as ;#-; for males and #&-<
for females in #$%# 1orld1ide-
&F
6he sur,e's of forced labour sho1/ ho1e,er/ that
1omen 1ho are economicall' acti,e are less li!el' than men to be in forced labour/
e,en in the case of returned migrants-
Educa"ion and li"erac%
6he sur,e's sho1 that the people in forced labour ha,e a lo1er literac' le,el/ 1hether
the' are adults or children- 6he literac' le,el of the parents (or heads of household) is
lo1er for the children in forced labour than those not in forced labour- 6he same applies
to returned migrants 1ho found 1or! abroad/ for 1hom literac' appeared to ha,e an
effect/ although slight- Across all three countries P Armenia/ 3eorgia and the Republic of
Coldo,a P1or!ers 1ith a high le,el education 1ere more represented in the categor' of
freel' emplo'ed 1or!ers and less represented among forced labour ,ictims-
&eal"h and Income Shoc#s
6here 1as no measure of po,ert' at the household le,el- 2o1e,er/ for a fe1 of the
countries/ income shoc!s and food securit' 1ere measured- In the .iger/ a higher
percentage of forced labour ,ictims than those in non-forced labour 1ere from
households in 1hich there had been a decline in re,enue- 6he same applies for both the
Plurinational State of "oli,ia and the .iger in the case of children- In .epal/ food securit'
1as used as an indirect measure of po,ert' in households= members 1ere as!ed if the'
had enough food to eat 'ear-round- Onl' a fe1 of the forced labour ,ictims li,ed in

66
$%&) 5rends Econo.etric 2odels 2,1,"#

>F

households 1ith food securit' (: per cent) compared to freel' emplo'ed indi,iduals (DF
per cent)- 6he results remain unchanged e,en for children-
In the case of returned migrants/ the onl' indicator of po,ert' 1as credit related- A
higher percentage of the ,ictims of forced labour borro1ed to finance their trips
compared to those 1ho 1ere successful in their migration and thus did not end up in
forced labour-

+eterminants of forced labour at the household le%el
The 'robi" model
6he probit model see!s to econometricall' identif' and anal'se the factors that ma!e
indi,iduals ,ulnerable to forced labour-
&;
6he ,ariable of interest is an indicator that ta!es
on the ,alue of % if an indi,idual 1or!ed as a forced labourer during the period of
anal'sis/ and $ other1ise- hen dealing 1ith binar' ,ariables/ the usual model of choice
is either the probit or the logit model- For this anal'sis/ a probit model 1as used- 6his
model 1as chosen to homogeni)e results 1ith that obtained in later sections 1hen the
tri,ariate probit model 1as used to stud' the determinants of forced labour among
returned migrant 1or!ers-
"ased on this/ the probabilit' that the indi,idual i in household j 1ill be in forced labour/
/ can be defined as4

1here is the cumulati,e distribution function of the standard normal distribution/ is
the set of independent (e0planator') ,ariables/ and the ,ector of un!no1n
parameters to be estimated-
Forced labour measured a" "he household le$el: The resul"s
6he results are presented in the form of marginal effects that measure the change in the
probabilit' of the indi,idual under anal'sis ending up in forced labour gi,en a unit
change in the e0planator' ,ariables (for the case of discrete ,ariables/ it is the effect of
a change in status from $ to %)- here necessar'/ results for forced child labour are
presented separatel'-

6-
:#I# *reene) Econo.etric $nalysis .rentice Iall+ -th 'd#+ 2,11"#
>;

6able >-&4 8eterminants of forced labour at the household le,el
7ariable 6he .iger .epal 3uatemala
Age
-$-$$$:UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$F#UUU
($-$$$%)
$-$$;#UUU
($-$$$%)
Age
$-$$$$UUU
($-$$$$)
$-$$$%UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$%UUU
($-$$$$)
Female
-$-$$#%UUU
($-$$$%)
-$-$%;>UUU
($-$$$D)
-$-$:<:UUU
($-$$$<)
Literate
-$-$$&:UUU
($-$$$%)
-$-$%%DUUU
($-$$$D)
$-$&%&UUU
($-$$%%)
2aru1ah-Charu1ah -
$-%::#UUU
($-$$%>) -
2ali'a -
$-%:DDUUU
($-$$%>) -
Literate head of household
-$-$%$:UUU
($-$$$%)
-$-$%$>UUU
($-$$$D)
-$-$#>DUUU
($-$$%$)
Age of head of household
$-$$$%UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$>UUU
($-$$$$)
$-$$$>UUU
($-$$$$)
Female head of household
$-$$DFUUU
($-$$$#)
-$-$$$<UUU
($-$$$<)
$-$>>DUUU
($-$$%>)
Si)e of household
$-$$%FUUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$D%UUU
($-$$$%)
-$-$$D$UUU
($-$$$#)
T of children V D in household
-$-$%%DUUU
($-$$$&)
$-$&><UUU
($-$$$:)
$-$%F;UUU
($-$$#:)
T of elderl' (W F$) in household
$-$%<FUUU
($-$$$;)
-$-%><DUUU
($-$$##)
$-$<:#UUU
($-$$&:)
T of male adults (%<-F$) in
household
$-$$<DUUU
($-$$$D)
-$-$%$<UUU
($-$%D)
$-$>>;UUU
($-$$&$)
Rural
-$-$%>>UUU
($-$$$#)
-$-$$#:UUU
($-$$$F) -
6arai -
$-$&;<UUU
($-$$$F) -
Re,enue decline
$-$$>:UUU
($-$$$%) - -
Food securit' -
-$-$DD;UUU
($-$$$&) -
.umber of obs- %#&&F %%&#; &#%%
R $-$D$D $-DD<> $-$F<#
Source) $%&
1# 'ach column presents the pro5a5ility of an individual ending up in forced la5our# The marginal effects are reported after
running a pro5it model in ST!T!#
2# The num5er in 5rac4ets 5elow the marginal effect is the standard error# The significance level is represented 5y stars
where) QQQ R 1 per cent level+ QQ R 9 per cent level and Q R 1, per cent level#

Demora'hics
6he counter-intuiti,e finding of the stud' is that 1omen and girls are generall' less li!el'
to be in forced labour irrespecti,e of their age- "eing female as opposed to male
reduces the probabilit' of a household member aged D or older being in forced labour
b' $-#% percentage points (in the .iger)/ to :-<: percentage points (in 3uatemala)-
hile being female leads to a decrease of about $-DD to %-$% percentage points/ the

><

result is positi,e in .epal 1here female children appear more li!el' than their male
counterparts to be in forced labour if the' are emplo'ed-
6he impact of the gender of the head of household on the li!elihood of its members
being ,ictims of forced labour appears to be clear4 households headed b' 1omen 1ere
more li!el' to be affected b' forced labour than those headed b' men- In .epal/
ho1e,er/ members of a houseful headed b' 1omen 1ere less li!el' to be in forced
labour- 6his could be related to the fact that in .epal/ the female-headed households
1ere less li!el' to be 2ali'a/ 2aru1ah-Charu1ah-
In terms of location/ li,ing in a rural area reduces the probabilit' of a person being in
forced labour b' about $-#: to %->> percentage points in .epal and the .iger/
respecti,el'- Children 1ere also less li!el' to be in forced labour if the' li,ed in rural areas
($-#: to %-:& percentage points in CNte d?I,oire and the Plurinational State of "oli,ia/
respecti,el')- 6he e0ception is in .epal/ 1here li,ing in rural areas increased the
probabilit' of an emplo'ed child being in forced labour b' about #$-; percentage
points- 6his is because the population at ris! studied in this sur,e' is located in rural areas-
hile the child dependenc' ratio increases the probabilit' of household members being
in forced labour in .epal and 3uatemala/ this 1as not pro,en in the .iger-
Educa"ion and li"erac%
ith the e0ception of 3uatemala 1here/ surprisingl'/ the literate 1ere more li!el' to be
in forced labour (&-%& percentage points)/ being literate leads to a ma0imum %-%D
percentage point decrease in the probabilit' of household members being in forced
labour- Indi,iduals in households 1ith literate heads 1ere less li!el' to be in forced
labour- For children/ 1hat matters is the literac' and education le,el of the household?s
decision-ma!er- 6his is often either the head of the household or the parent- In cases
1here no information on the education of the parent 1as a,ailable/ the head of the
household?s education 1as used-
6he education of the fathers/ 1hich impacts household income/ has a negati,e effect
on forced labour- 2a,ing an educated father reduces the probabilit' of an emplo'ed
child ending up in forced labour b' $-%; per cent in the Plurinational State of "oli,ia to
#-<# per cent in CNte d?I,oire- If a child is in a household 1ith an educated mother/ the
decrease can be b' about as much as D-FD per cent-

>:

6able >-D4 8eterminants of forced child labour
7ariable 6he
.iger
.epal 3uatemala P-S- of
"oli,ia
CNte
d?I,oire
Age
$-$$;:UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$%>&UUU
($-$$#<)
-$-$$#;UUU
($-$$%#)
-$-$$$;UUU
($-$#&&)
-$-$$D:UUU
($-$$$#)
Age
%

$-$$$>UUU
($-$$$$)
$-$$$&UUU
($-$$$%)
$-$$$<UUU
($-$$$$)
$-$$$%UUU
($-$$$$)
$-$$$#UUU
($-$$$$)
Female
-$-$%$%UUU
($-$$$>)
$-$>&DUUU
($-$$#<)
-$-$#%$UUU
($-$$%%)
-$-$$DDUUU
($-$$$>)
-$-$$<:UUU
($-$$$#)
Indigenous
- - - $-$$%FUUU
($-$$$>)
-
I,orian
- - - - $-$$$#UUU
($-$%DF)
2aru1ah-Charu1ah
- $-D:#<UUU
($-$$&:)
- - -
2ali'a
- $-F%<<UUU
($-$%<>)
- - -
Cother?s education
-$-$%$;UUU
($-$$$F)
- -$-$#;>UUU
($-$$%%)
$-$$F#UUU
($-$$$<)
-$-$DFDUUU
($-$$$;)
Father?s education
-$-$#%DUUU
($-$$$>)
- -$-$$>DUUU
($-$$%#)
-$-$$%;UUU
($-$$%%)
-$-$#<#UUU
($-$$$>)
Literate head
- $-$&%&UUU
($-$$#<)
- - -
Age of head
$-$$$%UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$%>UUU
($-$$$#)
-$-$$$<UUU
($-$$$%)
-$-$$$#
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$#UUU
($-$$$$)
Female 2ead
-$-$$%>UUU
($-$$$D)
$-$>D:UUU
($-$$D#)
$-%#%#UUU
($-$$>>)
-$-$$>$UUU
($-$$%%)
$-$$D>UUU
($-$$$>)
Si)e of household
$-$$&$UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$#>DUUU
($-$$$F)
-$-$$;%UUU
($-$$$>)
$-$$%$UUU
($-$$$%)
$-$$%>UUU
($-$$$$)
T of children V D in 2ousehold
-$-$$%<UUU
($-$$%#)
$-%&:&UUU
($-$$:%)
-$-$D>>UUU
($-$$&&)
-$-$><;UUU
($-$$%%)
$-$%;;UUU
($-$$$<)
T of elderl' (W F$) in 2ousehold
$-%;%:UUU
($-$$#%)
-$-><;#UUU
($-$#$;)
$-$&D<UUU
($-$$F<)
-$-$$$DUUU
($-$$#:)
$-$F>;UUU
($-$$%&)
T of male adults (%<-F$) in
household
$-$;:;UUU
($-$$%;)
$-$D;#UUU
($-$%&&)
$-$&:&UUU
($-$$F%)
$-$%$#UUU
($-$$%F)
$-$%>DUUU
($-$$%%)
Rural
-$-$%FFUUU
($-$$$D)
$-#$;$UUU
($-$$;:)
- -$-$%:&UUU
($-$$$&)
-$-$$#:UUU
($-$$$>)
6arai
- $-$;#<UUU
($-$$>&)
- - -
Re,enue decline
-$-$$&&UUU
($-$$$>)
- - $-$$F>UUU
($-$$$>)
-
Food securit'
- -$-%>;;UUU
($-$$#:)
- - -
.umber of obs-
>>$; <$$ %;D> >>;F
R
#

$-$<#& $-><&D $-%&$< $-%$$<
Source) $%&
1# 'ach column presents the pro5a5ility of an individual ending up in forced la5our# The marginal effects are reported after
running a pro5it model in ST!T!#
2# The num5er in 5rac4ets 5elow the marginal effect is the standard error# The significance level is represented 5y stars
where) QQQ R 1 per cent level+ QQ R 9 per cent level and Q R 1, per cent level#
0# The measure of parental education is an interaction varia5le of the presence of the parent in the house and their literacy#
$n the .lurinational State of /olivia+ however+ there is no measure of parental presence and thus the measure is only
whether they were educated or not+ while in COte d7$voire it is an interaction 5etween parental presence and whether
the parent attended school#

&$

)ousehold $ulnerabili"%
8irect measures of 1ealth are not used in the estimation model due to the importance
of credit in the measurement of forced labour- Instead/ measures such as income shoc!s
and food securit' are used- In the .iger/ a reduction in income for the household as a
1hole increases the probabilit' that a member 1ill be engaged in forced labour b'
about $->: per cent- 6he result is not as clear if the situation of children is studied
independentl' from the 1hole household/ 1ith contradictor' results in the Plurinational
State of "oli,ia/ for e0ample-
In terms of food securit'/ data 1ere onl' a,ailable for .epal 1here food securit' had a
negati,e effect on the probabilit' of household members ending up in forced labour-
6his effect is e0tremel' high/ about D-D; percentage points for household members as a
1hole/ irrespecti,e of their age/ and about %>-;; percentage points for children- 6his
,ariable/ though important/ is missing for the other t1o sur,e's (the .iger and
3uatemala) 1here the household situation 1as studied- Its high ,alue might help e0plain
the lo1 R
#
obtained for the other t1o countries 1here the ,ariable is missing-

+eterminants of forced labour among returned migrants
The "ri$aria"e 'robi" model
A modified probit model 1as used to stud' the factors that ma!e migrants ,ulnerable to
forced labour- As full information is onl' a,ailable on the conditions of 1or! of the
returned migrants (and not on the migrants 1ho are still 1or!ing abroad)/ the' are the
onl' group that can be full' identif' as either being in forced labour or not- 6his creates a
selection problem that must be ta!en into consideration- 6he dependent ,ariable of
interest is / and it is related to the indicator ,ariable / 1hich ta!es on the ,alue of
% if returned migrant 1as in forced labour at their last destination/ and a ,alue of $ if
not- 6his ,ariable/ ho1e,er/ is onl' obser,ed for migrants 1ho ha,e returned to their
countr' of origin and thus 1ere inter,ie1ed- +sing a tri,ariate probit model
&<
/ it is possible
to correct for selection bias in the stud' of the determinants of migrant forced labour-
In the migration eAuation/ the ,ariable of interest/ / is related to the ,ariable / an
indicator ,ariable that ta!es on the ,alue of % if the indi,idual 1as a migrant (present or
absent at time of inter,ie1)/ and $ other1ise- 6he ,ariable of interest in the return
migration eAuation is / associated 1ith the obser,ed indicator ,ariable / 1hich
ta!es on the ,alue of % if the indi,idual is a returned migrant/ and $ if the indi,idual is still
absent from the household- 6hus the model of interest becomes4

6<
G# CarreSn (odrigue3 and J# *arcia?FenTnde3+ Trivariate .ro5it with Bou5le Sample Selection) Theory and
!pplication+ 0or1ing (a(ers o -5E %"0 Centro de $nvestigacion y Bocencia !conomicas+ BivisiSn de
'conomUa+ FTxico+ 2,11"= J#(# !shford+ J# (# and (#(# Sowden+ Fulti?Gariate .ro5it !nalysis+ in 7io.etrics+
Gol# 26+ 2o# 0 $nternational /iometric Society+ 19-,"+ pp# 909?966#

&%

1here is the intercept/ the ,ector of coefficients associated 1ith independent
,ariables / 1ith being the associated correlation coefficients for and /
respecti,el'- 6he idios'ncratic component is -
6he t1o selection le,els impl' that there are four t'pes of indi,iduals4 those 1ho did not
migrate/ those 1ho migrated but did not return/ those 1ho migrated and returned but
1ere not in forced labour/ and those 1ho migrated and returned and 1ere in forced
labour at their final destination countr'- Full information is onl' a,ailable for the last t1o-
De"erminan"s of forced labour amon re"urned miran"s: The resul"s
6hree groups of respondents 1ere studied4 non-migrants/ absent migrants and returned
migrants- 6he correlation coefficients in Armenia and 3eorgia are all significant/ impl'ing
that there is indeed some le,el of selection bias- 6he error terms are all correlated e0cept
in Armenia/ 1here there appears to be no correlation bet1een the error terms of the
forced labour regression and migration regression- 6his means that there are common
factors that ma!e indi,iduals ,ulnerable to forced labour and more li!el' to return to
their countr' of origin/ as 1ell as common factors that ma!e indi,iduals choose to
migrate and that also ma!e them ,ulnerable to forced labour- In addition there are
common factors that ma!e indi,iduals decide to migrate and to return- It is important to
account for these correlations/ as the three groups are generall' not independent- 6he
tri,ariate model ta!es this into account- Its results are presented in the ne0t subsections-

6able >-F4 Correlation coefficients
7ariable Rep- of Coldo,a Armenia 3eorgia

$-#$<%UUU
($-$&;>)
-$-F&<<UUU
($-$%<<)
-$-<FFFUUU
($-$%#%)

$-#D#<UUU
($-$#:&)
$-$%;:
($-$#&&)
-$-><#>UUU
($-$%#<)

$->#<$UUU
($-$%$%)
-$-#<$$UUU
($-$##>)
-$->%<<UUU
($-$%#<)
Source $%&

&#

Demora'hics and li"erac%
Conte0tual factors/ such as the indi,idual?s characteristics and the characteristics of the
household to 1hich the indi,idual belongs/ are included in the regression anal'sis- In the
Republic of Coldo,a/ returning male migrants 1ere more li!el' than females to ha,e
ended up in forced labour at their last destination countr'-
Similarl'/ indi,iduals 1ith onl' a primar'-education le,el or belo1 1ere also more li!el' to
be ,ictims of forced labour than their more educated counterparts- In Armenia/
ho1e,er/ returning female migrants 1ere more li!el' than males to ha,e been in forced
labour (but less li!el' to ha,e been decei,ed)- In the three countries under
consideration/ being of rural rather than urban origins increased the probabilit' of an
indi,idual ending up in forced labour at their destination countr' b' bet1een $-<>
percentage points in the Republic of Coldo,a and D-;% percentage points in 3eorgia-
6he destination 1as also a determinant= indi,iduals 1ho 1ent to CIS countries faced a
higher probabilit' of ending up in forced labour than those 1ho did not- For e0ample/
going from the Republic of Coldo,a to a CIS countr' increased the probabilit' of being
in forced labour b' about $-> percentage points/ all else being constant-
Irregular migrants are more li!el' to be in forced labour than migrant 1or!ers 1ith a
regular status- In this model/ being an irregular migrant as opposed to a regular migrant
increases the probabilit' of being in forced labour b' about $->: percentage points in
the Republic of Coldo,a to %>-<& percentage points in 3eorgia/ all else being constant-

&>

6able >-;4 8eterminants of forced migrant labour
7ariable Rep- of Coldo,a Armenia 3eorgia
Age at migration $-$$$FUUU
($-$$$%)
$-$$%%UUU
($-$$$&)
$-$%&:UUU
($-$$#%)
Age at migration -$-$$$$UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$$UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$#UUU
($-$$$$)
Female -$-$$F;UUU
($-$$$:)
$-$;<$UUU
($-$$:D)
-
Carried -$-$$%;
($-$$D#)
-$-$&D$UUU
($-$$&;)
$-$&#;UUU
($-$$F#)
Primar' $-$$<$UUU
($-$$#>)
$-$&$%UUU
($-$$D#)

Rural $-$$<>UUU
($-$$%>)
$-$$:;UUU
($-$$%<)
$-$D;%UUU
($-$$D<)
Situation before lea,ing
Emplo'ed $-$$#DUUU
($-$$$&)
$-%%#$UUU
($-$$<&)
-$-%&&>UUU
($-$$:F)
Student $-$$FDUUU
($-$$%%)
$-$:F;UUU
($-$$:D)
-
Other $-$$>:UUU
($-$$$;)
-$-$>FDUUU
($-$$D>)
-
CIS $-$$#<UUU
($-$$$D)
- $-$#>%UUU
($-$$DF)
Lender
Relati,es9friends $-$$>DUUU
($-$$$F)
$-$<&>UUU
($-$$F;)
-
6hird part' $-$$<%UUU
($-$$%&)
$-%#:DUUU
($-$$::)
-
Amount borro1ed -$-$$$$UUU
($-$$$$)
-$-$$$$UUU
($-$$$$)
-
Paid for departure
Relati,es9friends - $-$%DFUUU
($-$$#;)
-
6hird part' - -$-$D;DUUU
($-$$D%)
-
Legislation full' !no1n - -$-$>$#UUU
($-$$>#)
-
Recruitment fee
Relati,es9friends $-$$D%UUU
($-$%$#)
- -
6hird part' $-$%>#UUU
($-$$##)
- -
Illegal resident $-$$>:UUU
($-$$$;)
$-%><&UUU
($-$%%D)
$-$D#DUUU
($-$$FD)
Sector of 1or!
Xualified 1or!ers in industries $-$$<&UUU
($-$$%>)
$-$DFFUUU
($-$$&<)
$-#&%FUUU
($-$%#:)
Lo1-s!illed 1or!ers $-$$D#UUU
($-$$$:)
$-%F:&UUU
($-$$:#)
$-%>;:UUU
($-$$:#)
S!illed agriculture $-$$<>UUU
($-$$#$)
$->;D&UUU
($-$%FD)
$-#>D$UUU
($-$%F:)
Ser,ice9commerce $-$%$:UUU
($-$$%<)
-$-$#>DUUU
($-$$&>)
-

Source $%&# Bash ? " means missing value#2&T'S) ;or each the marginal effects are reported# The cmp in ST!T! developed 5y (oodman is
used for the analysis# The num5er in 5rac4ets 5elow the marginal effect is the standard deviation of the coefficients#
The significance level is represented 5y stars where) QQQ R 1 per cent level+ QQ R 9 per cent level and Q R 1, per cent level#

&&

Recrui"men" fees and deb"
In the sur,e's that targeted returned migrants/ no direct information 1as a,ailable on
the income le,els of the migrants prior to migration- 6he onl' information that could be
used as pro0' is 1hether the' borro1ed to finance their trip- "orro1ing from third parties/
e,en from relati,es and friends as opposed to not borro1ing at all/ leads to an increase
in the probabilit' that an indi,idual 1ill end up in forced labour- hile borro1ing in itself
has a significant impact on the indi,idual?s ,ulnerabilit' to forced labour/ the amount
borro1ed appears not to ha,e much impact- 6hose 1ho borro1ed from relati,es and
friends as opposed to not borro1ing faced an increase in the probabilit' of being in
forced labour b' about $->D percentage points in the Republic of Coldo,a to <-&>
percentage points in Armenia-
Considering *ust the Coldo,an returned migrants/ the pa'ment of recruitment fees/ e,en
to relati,es or friends/ leads to a higher probabilit' of ending up in forced labour- Pa'ing
recruitment fees leads to an increase in the probabilit' of an indi,idual ending up in
forced labour b' about $-D% percentage points and %-># percentage points if the fees
1ere paid to relati,es and friends and to third parties/ respecti,el'- In both Armenia and
3eorgia/ recruitment fees are not included in the regression anal'sis due to the small
number of indi,iduals 1ho actuall' paid such fees-
Occu'a"ion
In this model/ occupations are bro!en do1n into Aualified industr' 1or!ers/ lo1-s!illed
1or!ers/ s!illed agriculture 1or!ers and ser,ice9commerce and other professional
1or!ers- 6he reference group for the Republic of Coldo,a and Armenia is other
professional 1or!ers/ 1hile in 3eorgia it is ser,ice9commerce 1or!ers and other
professional 1or!ers due to the fact that there 1ere not enough other professional
1or!ers- S!illed agricultural 1or!ers faced an increase in probabilit' of being in forced
labour across all three countries due to their occupation as opposed to being in the
reference occupations- 6he returned migrants in the Republic of Coldo,a and Armenia
faced bet1een a $-<> percentage point and a >;-D& percentage point increase in
probabilit' of being in forced labour if the' 1ere s!illed agriculture 1or!ers as opposed
to 1or!ers in professional occupations- In 3eorgia/ the' faced a #>-D$ percentage point
increase in their probabilit' of being in forced labour if the' 1ere in s!illed agriculture as
opposed to professional occupations-
A similar result is found in the ser,ices occupations among the Coldo,an returned
migrants= the' faced a %-$: percentage point increase in their probabilit' of being in
forced labour 1ith respect to the reference categor'- In Armenia/ ho1e,er/ the effect
1as the opposite- 6he returned migrants in the ser,ices sector 1ere less li!el' to ha,e
faced forced labour compared to those in other professional occupations-

&D

Conclusions
2I had not then learned the measure of 2man3s inhumanity to man,4 nor to %hat limitless
e,tent of %ic(edness he %ill go for the love of gain54
6 Solomon 7orthu$, -%elve 8ears a Slave 90:1;<
6hose 1ords 1ere 1ritten b' Solomon .orthup in K61el,e Rears a Sla,eL more than %D$
'ears ago/ but the' ring as true toda' as the' did then- Core than a centur' after being
banned in the de,eloped 1orld/ and decades after being outla1ed in the ne1l'
emerging de,eloping 1orld/ modern forms of sla,er'Yforced labour/ human traffic!ing/
forced se0ual e0ploitationYstill e0ist/ and unfortunatel' ris! gro1ing in e0tent and
profitabilit' in the 1orld toda'-
As this report has sho1n/ the profits from forced labour/ as generated on the bac!s of
largel' 1or!ing poor 1ho are desperatel' searching for a decent *ob and a better life
are more than three times the ILO?s pre,ious estimates-
Put into perspecti,e/ the #% million ,ictims in forced labour and the more than +SQ%D$
billion in illegal profits generated b' their 1or! e0ceeds the population and 38P of man'
countries or territories around the 1orld- Ret this ,ast nation of men/ 1omen and
children/ along 1ith its resources/ remains ,irtuall' in,isible/ hidden behind a 1all of
coercion/ threats and economic e0ploitation-
Since its first 3lobal Report on Forced Labour 1as issued in #$$%/ the ILO?s Special Action
Programme to combat Forced Labour has led the 1a' in marshalling concrete global
action- 6he ILO?s t1o international standards on forced labour ha,e been nearl'
uni,ersall' adopted/ and toda' form the basis of binding international la1 that has been
embraced b' most ILO member States- 6his ne1 report builds on the #$%# 3lobal
Estimate/ and ne1 methodologies and sur,e's/ to ta!e the understanding of forced
labour/ its e0tent and its profits to a ne1 le,el-
6he report indicates that 1hile unscrupulous emplo'ers and criminals reap huge profits
from the illegal e0action of forced labour/ the losses incurred b' the ,ictims are also
enormousl' significant- People in forced labour are often caught in a ,icious c'cle that
condemns them to endless po,ert'- 6he' ma' suffer personal trauma that 1ill reAuire
'ears to o,ercome as the' tr' to rebuild their li,es- At the same time/ la1-abiding
businesses and emplo'ers are disad,antaged b' forced labour as it creates an
en,ironment of unfair competition and ris!s tarnishing the reputation of entire industries
and sectors- And go,ernments and societies are also harmed because the profits
generated b' forced labour b'pass national ta0 collection s'stems/ and the costs
in,ol,ed in dealing 1ith forced labour cases are significant-
6he impact of po,ert' and income shoc!s is central to the understanding of forced
labour- Indi,iduals li,ing in po,ert' are more li!el' to be in forced labour and to borro1
mone'/ leading to an increase in ,ulnerabilit' to forced labour or a famil' member

&F

being held in debt bondage- In addition/ income shoc!s that push households further
into po,ert'/ and often belo1 the food po,ert' line/ also increase the li!elihood of
e0posure to forced labour- 6hese households are more li!el' to need emergenc' funds/
e,entuall' rel'ing on third parties to support their families- 6his hea,' dependence on
other indi,iduals can lead to manipulation/ coercion/ e0ploitation and deception/
especiall' if a creditor is a recruiter or traffic!er-
6he choice of a specific occupation also has an impact on 1hether the person ends up
in forced labour- Forced labour is more common in uns!illed occupations in agriculture/
fishing/ domestic 1or!/ manufacturing and other 1or! reAuiring lo1 le,els of education
and s!ills- Informal sector 1or!ers are more ,ulnerable to forced labour than 1or!ers 1ho
possess enforceable emplo'ment contracts-
Education and literac' are ,er' important factors/ both in terms of ,ulnerabilit' to/ and in
the elimination of/ forced labour- Educated indi,iduals are less li!el' to be in basic forms
of manual labour/ and are more li!el' to !no1 their rights- Literate indi,iduals can read
contracts and recogni)e situations that could lead to e0ploitation and coercion- In
addition/ households headed b' educated persons are more li!el' to be better off and
thus less li!el' to borro1/ especiall' in the e,ent of unforeseen income shoc!s-
3ender is another important factor that determines the li!elihood of being in forced
labour/ especiall' in relation to specific economic acti,ities- According to the ILO?s
3lobal Estimate/ about DD per cent of all ,ictims are 1omen and girls- In forced se0ual
e0ploitation and in domestic 1or!/ the ,ast ma*orit' of ,ictims are 1omen and girls- In
other economic acti,ities/ ho1e,er/ men and bo's tend to be disproportionall'
represented- According to sur,e' data discussed in this chapter/ men and bo's are
slightl' more at ris! of falling ,ictim to forced labour than 1omen and girls- 6his can be
e0plained b' the selection of sur,e's/ and a particular focus on bonded labour or debt
bondage-
Pre,ious ILO studies ha,e sho1n that it is usuall' the male head of the household that
borro1s from mone'lenders and hence pledges his labour as collateral- "ut this often
implies that the entire famil' is considered to be bonded- Some countr' sur,e's sho1
that male migrants 1ere more often in forced labour than 1omen/ depending ,er'
much on the choice of destination countr'- Other countr' sur,e's sho1 that single
female headed households 1ere more at ris! of forced labour than male headed
households- 6hus/ 1hile/ gender is an important factor determining the ris! of forced
labour/ it is often conte0tual and there are great ,ariances across countries/ sectors and
forms of forced labour-
Finall'/ migration is an important ris! factor- Sur,e's that focused on migrant 1or!ers in
Eastern Europe sho1ed a clear correlation bet1een the need to borro1 mone' for the
pa'ment of recruitment fees and the ris! of ending up in forced labour- 6he le,el of
education also pla'ed a role/ as educated migrants 1ere less li!el' to be in forced
labour- Finall'/ the choice of destination countr' and the legal status of migrant 1or!ers
in that countr' pla'ed a significant role in determining the li!elihood of being in forced
labour- An irregular situation entails a higher ris! to be e0posed to forced labour than
regular migration and emplo'ment status-
&;

hat needs to be doneG 6here is a critical need to e0pand the current !no1ledge base
on forced labour through standardi)ed data collection methods across countries- Such
standardi)ation and regular data collection 1ould enable the ILO and other
international organi)ations to generate more reliable global figures/ measure trends and
better understand ris! factors- "etter data and research 1ill also contribute to the design
of more effecti,e programmes and policies- Follo1ing the resolution of the International
Conference of Labour Statisticians adopted in September #$%>/ the ILO 1ill no1
establish a 1or!ing group of statisticians/ economists and other e0perts to further
ad,ance data collection and research in this area-
2o1e,er/ if the li,es of the #% million men/ 1omen and children in forced labour are to
be significantl' changed/ concrete and immediate action is needed- 6he fact that/ 1ith
limited deterrence/ huge profits can be made from millions of poor and uneducated
1or!ers pro,ides a compelling argument for stronger go,ernment inter,ention and
social and economic de,elopment- 8espite enhanced enforcement action against
forced labour and human traffic!ing in recent 'ears/ it remains a lo1 ris! and high gain
enterprise- 6his has to change-
Ceasures are needed to strengthen la1s and policies and reinforce inspection in sectors
1here the ris! of forced labour is high- 6his should be lin!ed to an earl' identification
s'stem of ,ictims and their effecti,e protection- Labour rights ,iolations should be s1iftl'
punished and criminal sanctions should be imposed on those 1ho pre' on particularl'
,ulnerable 1or!ers- or!ers need to be empo1ered b' supporting their organi)ation
and access to remedies-
6here is also a need to strengthen pre,enti,e measures and address specific ris! factors-
Social protection can pre,ent household ,ulnerabilit' to sudden income shoc!s and
debt bondage- Access to education and s!ills training can enhance the bargaining
po1er of 1or!ers and pre,ent children in particular from becoming ,ictims of forced
labour- Ceasures to promote social inclusion and address discrimination against 1omen
and girls can also go a long 1a' to1ards pre,enting forced labour- 3ood migration
go,ernance can enhance the positi,e de,elopment impact of migration and pre,ent
the e0ploitation and abuse of migrant 1or!ers-
6he need to address the socio-economic root causes of this hugel' profitable illegal
practice is urgent- Comprehensi,e measures are reAuired that in,ol,e go,ernments/
1or!ers/ emplo'ers and other sta!eholders 1or!ing together to end forced labour- 6he
continued e0istence of forced labour is bad for its ,ictims/ for business and
de,elopment- It is a practice that has no place in modern societ' and should be
eradicated as a matter of priorit'-

&<

&:

Appendi)

1, +efinitions
An indi,idual 1as considered to be em$loyed if the' engaged in an' economic acti,it'
1ithin the reference period used in the sur,e'-
An indi,idual is considered to be 1or!ing in forced labour if the'
had not been freel' recruited and faced some form of penalt' at time of recruitment
or
had to 1or! and li,e under duress and the menace of an' penalt' or
could not lea,e their emplo'er because of a menace of a penalt'
A child is all persons belo1 the age of %<-
An adult is defined as an indi,idual 1ho is older than %; 'ears-
A returned labour migrant is an indi,idual 1ho migrated to 1or! abroad and returned to
their countr' of origin at an' point in time 1ithin the %# months preceding the inter,ie1-
6his indi,idual has to be present in the household at the time of inter,ie1-
A household is affected b' forced labour if at least one of its member/ adult or child/ is a
,ictim of forced labour-

!, Profits from the Illegal -se of .orced Labour
Dealin *i"h non+res'onse
"oth data sets ha,e missing ,alues and 1e ha,e to correct for this- Follo1ing ILO (#$%>)/
non-response is treated as a sampling problem- Countries for 1hich data is a,ailable
ma' be different from those for 1hich data is una,ailable/ Peress (#$%$)- 6o correct for
this bias the estimate is often 1eighted such that the distribution for the obser,ed
,ariable in the sample matches the distribution of the population- One 1a' to do this is
,ia the ,ariable response propensit' estimator/ ILO (#$%#)-
Res'onse &eih"
Each countr' i is assumed to pro,ide information on sector = 1ith a probabilit'/ n
]
/
independentl' of each other- 6he in,erse of this response probabilit' is then use as a
1eight in calculating the final estimated number of 1or!ers in each sector in each
sector- In order to calculate the probabilit' of non-response/ 1e create a dumm'
,ariable/ r
]
/ 1hich ta!es on the ,alue of % if the countr' i pro,ides information on our

D$

,ariable of interest for sector =/ that is the si)e of the 1or! force in a gi,en sector/ and $
other1ise-
e therefore calculate the response probabilities using a probit model- 6hus 1e
estimate
n
]
= 1
]
(o
]
+ [
]
X)
1here 1 denotes the cumulati,e distribution function (C8F) for the probit regression/ o is
the intercept and X the matri0 of independent ,ariables to be used in estimating the
probabilities-
Res'onse &eih"s: The De'enden" Variables
6he estimation of the profits depends on three main ,ariables/ the si)e of the 1or!force
in each sector/ the ,alue added per sector and the minimum 1age- As the countries
that do not report information on all three ,ariables tend to be concentrated in specific
regions/ 1e emplo' a regional dumm' ,ariable as one of our dependent ,ariables- In
addition the 38P in each countr' is also used as an indicator for response- Countries
1ith lo1er 38Ps are less li!el' to carr' out sur,e's and thus to report an' such
information- In addition 1e e0pect that democratic countries are more li!el' to report
these ,alues and therefore include the democrac' inde0 of the economic intelligence
unit- e therefore run the regression4
n
]
= 1
]
(o
]
+ [
1
Rcgion +[
2
0P +[
3
cmocrocy )
and in the case of agriculture 1e run
n
]
= 1
]
(o
]
+ [
1
Rcgion +[
2
0P )
In the domestic sector/ 1e estimate the probabilit' that in information on the minimum
1age is a,ailable b' running the regression
n
]
= 1
]
(o
]
+ [
1
Rcgion +[
2
0P )
Once the probabilities of response are calculated 1e are able to estimate the
profits made b' the use of forced labour per sector per region-

D%

7ariable Agriculture Cining Canufacturing Construction 8omestic
Region
8e,eloped
Economies
and E+
$-:<<<UUU
($->%DD)
$-&;&$
($-&#<:)
$-><<:
($-&%<<)
$-D>#F
($-&&<<)
-$-%%:%
($-#:$;)

Latin
America and
the
Caribbean
%-%>%<UUU
($->%D#)
$-&%><
($->;&<)
$-D$:>
($->D;%)
$-%<>%
($-&$&:)
$-#$;:
($->%&F)

Asia-Pacific
$-%:DF
($-#<:D)
$-D%$&
($->D&%)
$-F#&%U
($->>;>)
$-D%:%
($->F:&)
-$-#%$<
($-#:;F)

Ciddle East
-$->%;:
($->:D:)

P P P
38P
$->$:$
($-#D$<)
$-#D;F
($-%;&D)
$-#>:F
($-%;%D)
$-&;$<UU
($-#%#&)
$-$;D#
($-%>F#)

8emocrac'
P $-$:$%
($-$<#$)
$-$:<:
($-$;:%)
$-$<>D
($-$<FF)

P
Constant
-$->$:$
($-%D#<)
-%-;$FFUUU
($-&%<<)
-%-F$F;UUU
($->:F;)
-%-;F%<UUU
($-&>F%)
$-;#:DUUU
($-%&>$)
R
#

$-%>FF $-%%#> $-%$;& $-%D<& $-$$<;
.umber of
obs-
%;& %F& %F& %F& %;&

D#

D>

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Prots and Poverty:

The Economics of Forced Labour

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