THE OSTERMAN FILES

Twelve Reasons Why He Wont

On the cusp, yet again. California Chromes convincing Preakness success at
Pimlico on Saturday puts him on a potential red carpet stroll to racing immortality. In less than
three weeks, the paparazzi will be out in force to take his photo as he makes the walk over to the
Belmont paddock amid all the razzle-dazzle the situation merits. Then, theyll run the race.
Its a time when racing fans forget about commonsense and forget about the past.
They just want California Chrome to win the Triple Crown. Those that have backed him
through the first two legs arent about to pull their support at this stage. They may not take the
short price on the favorite to win but they wont be betting against him either. Many others
who have tried to beat him in the Derby and Preakness will finally jump on the bandwagon
because they can no longer I.D. potential contenders who might beat California Chrome. Just
remember the following 12 reasons why he could easily fail.
1. SPECTACULAR BID (1979) Coming on the heels of three Triple Crown
winners in just six years, it was supposed to be an afterthought that the Bid
would add his name to the roster. He won the Derby by daylight at 3/5, cruised
in the Preakness at 1/10 and couldnt lose the Belmont at 30-cents on the dollar.
He finished third. Whether it was a bone-head ride by rogue bug-boy Ronnie
Franklin or an over-confident training job by Buddy Delp or that mythical
safety pin or an inability to get 12 furlongs doesnt matter. Spectacular Bid lost
the Belmont and California Chrome is no Spectacular Bid.
2. PLEASANT COLONY (1981) He took the Derby at 7/2 and the Preakness at
3/2. In the Belmont he acted up in the gate, broke last of 11 and could only
rally into third as the 4/5 chalk. Hes only a footnote now.
3. ALYSHEBA (1987) His Derby win was miraculous and he did enough to
take the Preakness with a late surge. However, he was a no-show in New York
while finishing more than 14 lengths behind at 4/5. He proved himself to be a
great horse down the road but he lost the Belmont and lost it badly.
4. SUNDAY SILENCE (1989) He upset Easy Goer at Churchill and Pimlico
but when they got to his foes home track, it was no contest. Easy Goer had the
4/5 chalk for lunch that day.
5. SILVER CHARM (1997) Bafferts grey won photos at 4/1 and 3/1 in the first
two legs and had the lead inside the furlong pole at even money in the third.
Touch Gold came and got him.
6. REAL QUIET (1998) Something of a second-stringer for Baffert, he upset the
Derby field at 8/1 and dominated Victory Gallop in the Preakness. He was four
clear of that foe with a furlong to go in the Belmont but lost by a lip before
having the lead again past the wire. Desormeauxs fault or the racing gods just
having some fun? You make the call.
7. CHARMISMATIC (1999) On the block for a $62,500 tag in February, he
won the Derby at 31/1 and was 8/1 when he repeated in Maryland. By Belmont
Day he was the 8/5 favorite and looked on his way to victory before breaking an
ankle inside the furlong pole. He never ran again.
8. WAR EMBLEM (2002) He wired them at CD (20/1), beat them again on the
front end at PIM (5/2) and was never heard from at BEL (6/5) after stumbling
badly at the start and becoming very rank.
9. FUNNY CIDE (2003) The New York-bred gelding won the Derby and the
Preakness but was exposed in the Belmont where he had no excuses as an 8/5
flop.
10. SMARTY JONES (2004) Hugely popular after winning his first eight starts
in smashing fashion, the party ended when he coughed up a daylight lead to
Birdstone (36/1) in the final furlong. He simply couldnt stay the distance.
11. BIG BROWN (2008) The only way he could lose the Belmont at 1/5 odds
was if he got pulled up. He got pulled up.
12. ILL HAVE ANOTHER (2012) He injured an ankle days before his date
with destiny and didnt even make the race.

There you have it -- twelve reasons why California Chrome is no cinch no matter
how low the odds when he shows up in New York. Some of these Belmont losers had more
talent than California Chrome, some had less. They all lost because thats the kind of race
were dealing with. If California Chrome cant overcome recent history, well have a bakers
dozen since Affirmed in 1978.

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