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Abstract
When Mashallah Hosseini, the former Head of the Commission for Agriculture convened by the Islamic
Consultative Assembly, addressed water issues in Iran he appealed to Iranian ocials as follows: 12
billion cubic meter fresh water, which enter Turkey and Iraq from Iran, plus adjacent water resources
amounting up to 20 billion cubic meter, which ow into the Persian gulf from the streams in the south
like Karkha, Karun and Cherahi, remain entirely unused.
1
Hereby one is mistaken to assume that this
issue was newly brought on the agenda in fact water supply as a determinant factor in Irans policy
towards her neighboring countries had been already playing a crucial role prior to the Iraq War in 2003.
OMINOUS TOKENS IN STRAINED IRAN-IRAQ
RELATIONS: ARE CONFLICTING INTERESTS ON
WATER SUPPLY HERALDNG A NEW CRSS?
>
68
David LEUPOLD
ORSAM Middle East Research Assistant
The purpose of meeting Irans energy demand by building several dams on Karun River may have an harmful effect on the agricultural sector of Iraq.
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As the rivers like the Karun River in the west of Iran are mostly of trans-
boundary nature, so does the water issue emerge as a challenge with
massive impact not only on a domestic but also on a trans-national level
across its borders.
Introduction
In face of serious bottlenecks both In Iran and
Iraq, coinciding with an axis shift in Iraqs do-
mestic policy on behalf of Shii groups, serious
concerns have been raised recently on regard to
the question whether this silent crisis is likely to
reach the verge of escalation in the next future.
For this reason, in the rst part of my article I
will determine and briey discuss various do-
mestic factors which already have or will emerge
as challenges for Irans water policy. In the sec-
ond part, I will focus on the signicance of a
well-balanced water policy of all actors in the
Middle East with hindsight on the Shatt al-Arab
issue, delineating the historical events which
ultimately led to the Iran-Iraq war in geostrate-
gic terms. In conclusion, I will critically reect
about the impact of Irans water policy on her
neighboring country Iraq in an attempt to strike
a link between the recent tension in the Iran-
Iraq relations and the national interests of both
countries on this particular issue.
An Outline of the Middle East water issue and
the Detrimental Impact of Domestic Upheav-
als

When we look back into history we see that
scarcity of water resources has always been a
crucial problem in the Middle East. However, in
face of a rapidly growing population throughout
the region, this issue is likely to emerge as one of
the greatest threats to regional security and may
considerably hamper the peace process.
In a region which has been dominated by a
struggle on fossil fuels, in particular crude oil, or
sectarian-ethnic clashes until now we may wit-
ness a fundamental change of the overall condi-
tions as the parameter water may inuence the
dynamics of the considered countries, rst on a
domestic scale, yet later on with an international
impact. In face of this potential threat, the prep-
aration and implementation of farsighted, well-
balanced water policies under consideration of
latest scientic results and technological devel-
opments are of utter importance to avert the fate
of the ever war-ridden Middle East.

In view of currently conicting interests on wa-
ter supply, illustrated by the example of Iran and
Iraq in this article, I will try to emphasize the
need for increased collaboration and better co-
ordination in this eld to benet from synergy ef-
fects instead of reckless competition which may
deal serious damage to both sides, involved in
the struggle for covering its own steadily rising,
domestic water demand. Te Shatt-al Arab cri-
sis, which contributed signicantly to the dete-
rioration in the Iran-Iraq relations and entailed a
resource-engulng and relentless Iran-Iraq war
throughout the 80s, may serve as a warning ex-
ample as it sheds light on the destructiveness of
policies based on the idea of preserving national
interests irreconcilably regardless of the national
interests of neighboring countries.

In fact both Iran and Iraq are countries inter-
nally weakened due to domestic issues which
became obvious most recently in the aftermath
of general elections. In the case of Iraq we face a
country which is going through a critical period
of re-orientation and upheavals after the disin-
tegration of the Baath regime in 2003. As a mat-
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Mutual awareness for water demand, has to be increased on both sides to pave the way for a sustainable and fruitful cooperation for
the beneft of both Iran and Iraq.
ter of fact, neither former Prime Minister Ayad
Allawis (Arab) nationally oriented al-Haraka
al-Wataniya al-Iraqiyya (Iraqi National Move-
ment) nor current Prime Minister Nouri Al-Ma-
likis Shii-oriented Itilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (Rule
of Law Coalition) is likely to reconcile incongru-
ous political interests for the sake of a common
cause and to assert itself as the spearhead of
Iraqs estranged political groups, which are until
now fragmented along a sectarian-ethnic axis.
2


However, in Iran controversial election results
entailed months of violent clashes between gov-
ernmental security forces and supporters of Me-
hdi Karroubis Hezb-e Etemad-e Melli
3
(National
Trust Party) and Mir-Hossein Mousavis Rah-e
Sabz-e Omid
4
(Te Green Way of Hope), both
candidates in the election who asserted that the
result of the election was forged in favor of Ah-
madinejads Etelaf-e Abadgaran-e Iran-e Eslami
(Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran).
Water Supply in Iran: a Vital Interest and Ma-
jor Challenge

According to the study paper Buhran-e Waziyet-
e Ab dar Chihan wa Iran (Water Crisis in Iran
and the World, 2009) worked out by Dr. Sadighe
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In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopting a reckless and irrecon-
cilable policy towards its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to
believe that the water issue will emerge as the most detrimental force in
the bilateral relations of the two countries.
Babran, scholar at Azad-e Eslami University, Te-
heran, and director of a research group for sus-
tainable growth and environmental protection,
Iran will face a severe water crisis in the years to
come. He points out that the rapid, high growth
in population is the main reason for Irans in-
creased demand for fresh water. According to
demographical calculations, Iran will emerge as
one of ten countries with the highest population
by 2050 a circumstance which is further wors-
ened by the increasingly diverging gap between
fresh water (demanded by households) and re-
cyclable water resources available (sarane-ye ab
tajdeedpazeer).
5
Furthermore recent scientic
research indicates that deforestation and, in this
context, the vast extinction of ora and fauna
which is needed in the natural water purica-
tion process accord mainly for the increasing
lack of drinkable water. As a matter of fact 60
% of Iranian territory is located in an arid zone,
a weather zone characterized by high tempera-
tures and less rainfall. According to an article
published by the RFI the Iranian provinces of
Sistan, Baluchestan and partially Khorasan are
most strongly aected by the water shortage.
6
In
order to meet the high water demand Iran initi-
ated projects to exploit water reservoirs below
the surface, yet the use of such state-of-the-art
techniques are unlikely to be aordable on a
large scale. Besides that an increasingly falling
water level further compounds the exploitation
of sub-terrestrial rivers. As a matter of fact most
of the rivers which ran around 40 meter below
the surface in the past, now run 250-300 meter
below the surface which creates both a scien-
tic and an economic challenge.
For that reason the value of drinkable water in
Middle East cannot be overestimated and in face
of the fact that a shortage in water supply will
emerge as the most grievous problem in Irans
domestic politics, the importance of water is
likely to eclipse even the supply of such crucial
resources like crude oil and electricity. Hereby
especially the vast demand of the agricultural
sector creates major problems. According to
Abdul Ghafar Shojaa, a scholar who working in
the eld of agricultural engineering and natural
resources, stated that 94% of water available is
consumed by the agricultural sector and only a
remaining share of 6 % is consumed by private
households and the industrial sector.
7


As the rivers like the Karun River in the west
of Iran are mostly of trans-boundary nature,
so does the water issue emerge as a challenge
with massive impact not only on a domestic but
also on a trans-national level across its borders.
In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopt-
ing a reckless and irreconcilable policy towards
its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to
believe that the water issue will emerge - apart
from the Fakka oil eld issue
8
as the most det-
rimental force in the bilateral relations of the
two countries which might eventually cause a
profound rupture reminiscent of the rivalry trig-
gering the Iran-Iraq war in 1980.

Te Geopolitical Aspect of the Iraq-Iran War:
Shatt-al Arab

As a matter of fact, the power struggle which
crystallized around the area of Shatt-al Arab
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contributed signicantly to the eruption of the
Iran-Iraq crisis.
9
Te Shatt-al-Arab is the es-
tuary of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and it
forms the Iranian-Iraqi boundary from its mouth
on the Persian Gulf to appoint almost halfway
between Khorramshahr and Basra, a distance of
about fty-ve miles. Before 1847, the Shatt-al-
Arab was an inland river under the sovereignty
of the Ottoman Empire. In 1847, the weakening
Ottoman Empire, under the Treaty of Ezerum,
formally ceded to the Persian Empire the city
of Khorramshahr, the island of Abadan and the
anchorage and land on the eastern shore of the
Shatt. Also, freedom of navigation throughout
the Shatt was guaranteed to Persian vessels.
10

However, when we look back into history we see
that in the following course of events this region
should again emerge as a disputed issue.
In fact, upon the establishment of Joint Com-
missions which scrutinized the legal claims of
the river bank region, an agreement was reached
and protocols were signed in 1911 and 1914 re-
spectively. Te latter protocol, which is referred
to as the Constantinople Protocol, rearmed
the eastern bank of the river as the boundary
territory of Iraq whilst granting Iranian claims
on various islands within the river. In the Post-
WWI period however, Iran came up with new
claims as it refused to accept the former proto-
col on legal grounds, arguing that the protocol
was no longer valid as one of its signatories, the
Ottoman Empire, did not longer exist. Te state
of Iraq, which had evolved from the Ottoman
Empire upon unication of the three provinces
Bagdad, Basrah and Mosul, persisted on the idea
of being its legitimate successor, thus repudiat-
ing this argumentation and the claims related
Iraq has serious problems in water management and this problems severe Iraqs water scarcity. For example, Mosul Dam is the Iraqs
largest dam but it needs a total reconstruction.
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to it. Iran, however, succeeded in regaining
its sovereignty over the port city of Khorram-
shahr, which is located near the conuence with
the Haar arm of the Karun River, the anchor-
age surrounding Abadan and the eastern shore
of the river as the boundary was moved to the
valley trail in the middle of the river.
11


However the dispute on this issue was not allayed
as both sides refused to respect the conditions
laid down in the agreement on the pretext that
it was worked out under the pressure of Great
Britain. In 1969 Mohammad Reza Pahlawi, the
then Shah of Iran, scented unprecedented op-
portunities to gain leverage over a weakened
and crisis-ridden Iraq and consequently pushed
through its demands by means of military forc-
es. In this context, Iran took also advantage of
Kurdish insurgents, in the rst instance to exalt
its inuence over Iraqi domestic policy and to
create a tense environment in which Iraq would
have got no choice but to waive from its claims
on the specic territory. On this regard, Iran
provided Mela Mistefa Barzani with sophisti-
cated artillery and supported the militia of the
Partya Demokrata Kurdistan (Kurdish Demo-
cratic Party) against the Baath regime estab-
lished in Baghdad.
12

Yet later on Iran abandoned its support for
Kurdish separatist movements most probably
due to the fact that the potential establishment
of Kurdistan in northern Iraq would also jeop-
ardize its own national integrity. Nevertheless,
Iraq, having suered from a death toll of 60,000
casualties during the Kurdish uprisings, was not
on a par with its strengthened adversary and had
to give in to a re-demarcation of the boundary on
behalf of Iran. Tis power constellation resulted
in the Algiers Accord of 1975, in which Iraq ir-
revocably rearmed the borderline according to
the valley trail, thus resigning to the irretrievable
loss of the territories on the Eastern side of the
Shatt al-Arab. Conversely, Iran guaranteed Iraq
to abandon its support for the Iraqi Kurds a
tactical move which, as mentioned above, also
complied with Irans own domestic interests.

In 1979, in the wake of the Islamic Revolution in
Iran, Saddam Hussein seized the opportunity to
hoodwink a domestically weakened Iran and re-
gain the territories east of Shatt al-Arab by mili-
tary force. Te occupation of this territory trig-
gered the Iran-Iraq war, a war to whom the Ira-
nians refer to as the Jang-e Tahmili (the Imposed
War) and the Iraqis as the Def-e-Moqaddas
(the Holy Defense). As a matter of fact this war,
which lasted for eight years and caused over 1
million casualties and a total economic loss of
estimated 1000 billion US dollar, ended without
any territorial changes and both parties agreed
again on the Algiers Accord as the binding docu-
ment.

Water Supply: Eye of Contention in the Post-
2003 Iraq War Period

Te issue of water supply became evident most
crudely in the most recent Iraqi water crisis. As a
matter of fact, a devastating drought stroke Iraq
in the 2007-2008, continuing until 2009.
13
Ac-
cording to a statement made by the Foreign Ag-
ricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Ag-
riculture, in particular northern Iraq is aected
The Gotvand Dam, Masjed Solayman Dam, Shahid Abbaspour Dam,
Karun-3 and Karun-4, respectively, all serve the purpose of meeting
Irans energy demand, but at the same time may have an harmful effect
on the agricultural sector of Iraq.
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worse by the drought, causing substantial crop
failure of the rain-fed wheat, which is essential
to Iraqs nutrition supply.

Iraq, struggling to meet its domestic water sup-
ply, reiterated its complaints among others vis-
-vis Iran, which they blame for unfairly re-
stricting the ow of water with dams and other
infrastructure.
14
In this context Amir Salman,
agricultural director in the Southern province
of Basrah, pointed out that the water reaching
Tigris and Euphrates was not sucient, together
with critical remark that Irans diversion of the
Karun River had further compounded the cri-
sis.
15
Hereby he is alluding to the diversion of
the Karun River, originally a tributary converg-
ing in the Shatt al-Arab, as a result of several
dams built by the Iranians. Te various dams,
were built mainly for the purpose of exploiting
the rivers potential as a hydroelectric power
site. Te Gotvand Dam, Masjed Solayman Dam,
Shahid Abbaspour Dam, Karun-3 and Karun-4,
respectively, all serve the purpose of meeting
Irans energy demand, but at the same time may
have an harmful eect on the agricultural sector
of Iraq.
16


In this context it is striking to see that water
supply emerges as an issue of national interest,
uniting an Iraqi society otherwise fragmented
by sectarian and ethnic disruptions. Hereby it
is worth noting that, contrary to expectations,
Shii-oriented groups in the center and south of
Iraq refrain from closing ranks with their Shii
neighbors but take a critical stance based on na-
tional interests instead. In this context, meetings
of ORSAM experts with Qusei Al-Suhayl, cur-
rent Deputy speaker of the Iraqi parliament, on
February 9, 2010, and in the rst week of No-
vember, 2010, revealed that the concern on re-
gard to neighboring countries negative impact
on domestic water supply is also shared by high-
ranking ocials of the Shii-oriented Sadr Move-
ment. Tis opinion was also backed by the Shii-
oriented Fadila Party in the region of Basrah
during two further meetings of ORSAM experts
in June 2009 and February 2010, respectively. In
fact, Shii politicians expressed their grievances
on regard to the negative impact of neighboring
countries, including Iran, most bluntly thus re-
butting the thesis of a Shii Iraqi population like-
ly to be utilized by Iran a thesis often put for-
ward but hardly ever questioned. Criticism was
also raised in 2009 on an ocial level as the then
Iraqi water minister, Latif Rashid, complained
that no dialogue could be established with Iran
on that issue, blaming Tehran for ignoring Iraqs
national interests
17
. Hereby he stressed the idea
that the hands of Iraqi authorities were tied as
Iran is located upstream and thus in the stron-
ger position. Tis idea is also shared by Akram
Ahmad Rasul, general director of dams at the
Ministery of Water Resources, who stressed the
importance of the Sirwan River and the smaller
branch of the Zab River both springing from
Iranian territories. In this context he pointed
out that the change in its stream direction was
seriously jeopardizing Iraqs aim to secure water
resources, bearing in mind that 70% of the rivers
water comes from Iranian land.
18
Iraqi ocials
themselves have also faced criticism for the fail-
ure to draw up an eective water-pricing policy
in face of a rapid growth in population, a fact
which aggravated the current problems.
Conclusion

In conclusion, I would like to emphasize the se-
riousness of this issue, referring to a U.N. report
published in 2003, stating that 30 of 37 water
conicts within the last 50 years took stage in
the Middle East, thus competition in the eld of
water supply among countries of this region is
regarded as a precarious circumstance and rais-
es worries about military conicts, which could
arise from it.
19
Hereby it is important to note
that endeavors of Iran to maintain its water sup-
ply has not only strained its relations with Iraq,
but also most recently with Afghanistan. In fact,
the works on the rehabilitation of the Kajaki dam
powerhouse, initiated by ISAF forces in 2007,
was faced with stern concern by Iranian ocials
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as it controls the water ow to Iran.
20
Iran, hav-
ing suered a severe setback in its endeavors
to maintain control over water resources along
its Eastern border, may turn west to secure its
economic interests. In this context, Teheran is
unlikely to restrict itself on exerting exterior po-
litical pressure on state-level only but will also
try to gain leverage as an unocial player in the
decision-making processes on a domestic level.
In order to forestall a conict of interest aring
up, eventually harming both countries, nego-
tiations between both countries on this subject
DPNOTLAR
have to be encouraged by all means. Hereby
mutual awareness for national interests, and in
particular water demand, has to be increased
on both sides to pave the way for a sustainable
and fruitful cooperation for the benet of both
Iran and Iraq. In this context, the most recent
call for cooperation on border and security is-
sues alongside a meeting between Mostafa Mo-
hammad Najjar, Iranian Minister of Interior Af-
fairs, and his Iraqi counterpart, Jawad al-Bulani,
in Tehran 2010 might form the milestone on the
way to rapprochement.
21
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php?nn=8907241648 (last access: 2010-12-24)