Buck Solidifies Senate Race Lead, Norton Still Seen as

Strongest
Penry's Huge Advantage in Guv's Primary Reduced by Withdrawal
Announcement

Below are the candidate results from the November 2009 online survey of
Colorado’s political temperature, including 281 participants (September & July %
in parentheses, respectively):

If the GOP primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I would
vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)
Ken Buck (128) … 45.6% (24.7%, 11.6%)
Jane Norton (71) … 25.3% (22.8%, N/A)
Tom Wiens (26) … 9.3% (2.5%, 2.8%)
Cleve Tidwell (12) … 4.3% (7.0%, 6.9%)
Other / None of the Above (44) … 15.7% (13.7%, 22.3%)
**One-time candidates Ryan Frazier and Luke Korkowski were removed from this
survey

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for US
Senate in the general election in November 2010 is _____.
Jane Norton (126) ... 44.8% (29.1%, N/A)
Ken Buck (93) … 33.1% (21.9%, 12.7%)
Tom Wiens (19) … 6.8% (3.6%, 2.3%)
Cleve Tidwell (7) … 2.5% (6.3%, 5.2%)
Other / None of the Above (36) … 12.8% (13.9%, 21.8%)
**One-time candidates Ryan Frazier and Luke Korkowski were removed from this
survey

If the GOP primary for Governor were held today, _____ is the candidate I would
vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)
Josh Penry (129) … 45.9% (47.5%, 36.2%)
Scott McInnis (69) … 24.6% (30.2%, 35.8%)
Dan Maes (40) … 14.2% (8.4%, 9.5%)
Other / None of the Above (43) … 15.3% (13.9%, 18.4%)
Before Penry's Withdrawal Announcement After Penry's Withdrawal
Announcement
PENRY (117) ... 53.4% MCINNIS (22) ...
36.1%
MCINNIS (47) ... 21.5% MAES (12) ... 19.7%
MAES (28) ... 12.6% PENRY (12) ... 19.7%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for Governor
in the general election in November 2010 is _____.
Scott McInnis (113) … 40.2% (40.5%, 43.6%)
Josh Penry (106) … 37.7% (43.0%, 33.3%)
Dan Maes (19) … 6.8% (4.9%, 7.4%)
Other / None of the Above (43) … 15.3% (11.6%, 15.7%)
Before Penry's Withdrawal Announcement After Penry's Withdrawal
Announcement
PENRY (97) ... 44.3% MCINNIS (32) ...
51.6%
MCINNIS (81) ... 37.0% PENRY (9) ... 14.5%
MAES (16) ... 7.3% MAES (3) ... 4.8%
 Frazier, Gardner Running Away with Support in 7th, 4th
CD
Romanoff Slips, Still Seen as Stronger than Bennet; Ament's Treasurer
Lead Grows
If the GOP primary for the 7th Congressional District were held today, _____ is the
candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)
Ryan Frazier (128) ... 45.6%
Brian T. Campbell (43) ... 15.3%
Jimmy Lakey (16) ... 5.7%
Other / None of the Above (94) ... 33.5%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 7th
Congressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.
Ryan Frazier (143) ... 50.9%
Brian T. Campbell (29) ... 10.3%
Jimmy Lakey (12) ... 4.3%
Other / None of the Above (97) ... 34.5%

If the GOP primary for CD 4 were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote
for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)
Cory Gardner (124) … 44.1% (42.9%, 34.0%)
Tom Lucero (68) … 24.2% (22.8%, 20.8%)
Diggs Brown (16) … 5.7% (3.0%, 5.5%)
Other / None of the Above (73) … 26.0% (31.4%, 39.7%)

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 4th
Congressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.
Cory Gardner (138) … 49.1%
Tom Lucero (59) … 21.0%
Diggs Brown (9) … 3.2%
Other / None of the Above (75) … 26.7%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) Democratic candidate for
US Senate in the general election in November 2010 is _____.
Andrew Romanoff (161) ... 57.9% (60.4%)
Michael Bennet (117) ... 42.1% (39.6%)

If the Democratic primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I
would vote for to best represent the Democratic Party. (select one)
Andrew Romanoff (188) ... 66.9% (70.4%)
Michael Bennet (93) ... 33.1% (29.6%)

If the GOP primary for Treasurer were held today, _____ is the candidate I would
vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)
J.J. Ament (116) … 41.3% (32.3%, 19.1%)
Walker Stapleton (47) … 16.7% (19.4%, 19.4%)
Muhammad Ali Hasan (11) … 3.9% (4.6%, 6.9%)
Other / None of the Above (107) … 38.1% (43.7%, 54.6%)
 Bloggers Take Colorado’s Political Temperature
November 2009 Survey

Results and Summary Analysis

Michael Sandoval, Slapstick Politics (http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com), tabascoii@gmail.com
Ben DeGrow, Mount Virtus (http://bendegrow.com), bendegrow@gmail.com
With assistance from Mary Ila Macfarlane

Content Overview
Open online from Thursday, November 5, 8:00 AM MST, to Friday, November 13, 5:00 PM
MST, the survey gauged opinion on prominent policy issues, philosophy, and political
dynamics; as well as candidate preference and assessment questions for five 2010
Colorado Republican primary races and one Democratic primary race.

Participant Demographics
The survey was not intended to measure a representative cross-section of Colorado
voters and thus has no direct predictive power on upcoming primary elections. It was
however intended primarily for Right-leaning Colorado political activists to express their
beliefs and preferences. The survey was controlled to prevent multiple responses from a
single IP address.

The survey included 281 participants, self-identified as follows (results may not add up to
100.0%, due to rounding), not all of whom completed the entire survey:
Registered Colorado Voters: Yes (98.2%), No (1.4%)
Political Party: Republican (87.5%); Unaffiliated (5.7%); Libertarian (5.0%); Democrat
(1.4%); Other (0.4%).
Gender: Male (67.9%); Female (32.1%).
Age: 18-29 (11.8%); 30-39 (14.3%); 40-49 (22.1%); 50-59 (26.4%); 60-69 (18.2%); 70 or
older (7.1%).
Region: The 7 county Denver Metro Area (55.0%); The Front Range/I-25 corridor other
than the Denver Metro Area (32.5%); Western Slope (7.1%); Eastern Plains (4.3%); I-
70/Ski Country (1.1%).
Congressional District: 1st (9.6%); 2nd (15.7%); 3rd (7.9%); 4th (20.4%); 5th (10.0%); 6th
(18.6%); 7th (13.9%).
Race: Non-Hispanic White (84.6%); Other/Multiple Race (9.6%); Hispanic or Latino
(3.9%); African American (1.1%); Asian American (0.7%).
Marital Status: Married (74.3%); Single—Never Married (15.4%); Divorced (7.9%);
Widowed (2.5%).
Highest Education: Less than high school (0.7%); High school/GED (2.9%); Some
college (16.4%); 2-year college (7.1%); 4-year college (35.7%); Some graduate school
(8.9%); Master’s degree (21.1%); Doctoral degree (7.1%).
Political Affiliation (1=Liberal; 7=Conservative): Conservative (42.1%); Strong
Conservative (39.3%); Moderate Conservative (14.6%); Centrist (3.2%); Moderate Liberal
(0.4%); Liberal (0.4%).
Total Conservative: 96.0% Total Liberal: 0.8%
Opinion Questions
Participants were asked to rate their relative agreement with a series of 40 statements on
prominent policy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics, based on a 7-point Likert scale
(1 = Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3 = Somewhat Disagree; 4 = Neither Agree nor Disagree;
5 = Somewhat agree; 6 = Agree; 7 = Strongly agree).
Bolded statements occupy the same ranking as the September survey.
Italicized statements represent the first time in the top 10 since the survey began in July.

The top 3 answers remain unchanged from September 2009, and 8 of the top 10 remain
from the previous go-around. The 10 statements that received the strongest
agreement on the 7-point scale (with rating from September 2009 survey in
parentheses):

1. The so-called 'public option' in the House health care reform bill will lead to a
single payer government health care takeover.
6.37 (6.18)
2. I would describe myself, on balance, as a “fiscal” or “free market”
conservative, focusing more on issues of taxation, government spending, or
the economy. 6.22 (6.09)
3. Bill Ritter's management of the state has contributed to worsening our
current economic situation.
6.16 (6.08)
4. It is not about "left vs. right" but about the power of government vs. the rights of the
individual. 6.02 (n/a)
5. President Barack Obama’s policies will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010
midterm election. (Prev: 6)
5.96 (5.84)
6. I am concerned about Michael Bennet's indecision on the union card check bill and
other important pieces of legislation. (Prev: 4)
5.92 (6.03)
7. The TEA Parties are an effective method of voicing opinions on the size of
government and taxation.
5.89 (5.81)
8. Candidates, regardless of party, should be prepared to face a primary challenge. (Prev:
5)
5.87 (5.85)
9. Voter-approved retention of Colorado Supreme Court justices is a necessary check on
judicial overreach.
5.82 (n/a)
10. Colorado's Supreme Court is, on balance, too partisan. (Prev: 11)
5.72 (5.51)

Representing the same 10 statements from the September 2009 survey (with 6
occupying the exact same position), the 10 statements that received the strongest
disagreement on the 7-point scale:

1. A Cap and Trade bill is, on balance, a good idea.

1.36 (1.47)
2. My overall opinion of Democrats is positive. (Prev: 3)
1.52 (1.67)
3. The Stimulus Bill has helped to grow the economy. (Prev: 2)
1.58 (1.65)
4. Michael Bennet has shown decisive leadership as Colorado's junior U.S.
Senator. 1.80 (1.75)
5. Bill Ritter and Colorado Democrats needed to pass the FASTER car tax
increase to help fix the state budget crisis.
1.82 (1.82)
6. Incumbents should not be challenged by primary opponents.
2.02 (2.23)
7. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Bill Ritter will win reelection as
Colorado’s governor in 2010.
2.09 (2.23)
8. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Michael Bennet, appointed by Bill
Ritter to replace Ken Salazar, will win election for US Senate in 2010.
2.17 (2.24)
9. It is the job of national organizations like the National Republican Senatorial Committee
to endorse candidates early in the primaries. (Prev: 10)
2.32 (2.64)
10. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Betsy Markey will win reelection to CD 4 in
2010. (Prev: 9)
2.48 (2.53)