Modis Day-1 in office

Hariharans Intelligence blog

Col R Hariharan-May 28, 2014
!his is a s"##ary of a"thors co##ents #ade on May 2$ to %nglish and !a#il ne&s'a'ers
and #aga(ines as &ell as on !) ne&s channels*+
,ri#e Minister -arendra Modi, &ho had faced #ore fla. and in/estigations than any other
as'irant ste''ing into the shoes of a 'ri#e #inister, has sho&n on Day-1 that he is a #an of his
o&n #ind* His s'ectac"lar election /ictory o&ed it to his 'lanning, e0ec"tion and #anage#ent
of his election strategy*
His relentless ca#'aign against odds has sho&n as a one &ho leads fro# the front, not losing
sight of o/erall goals, and an "ncanny .nac. to get his &ay thro"gh o/erco#ing his detractors
both &ithin and o"tside the 12,* 3ast b"t not least is his ability to 'ic. a tea# and #oti/ate
the# to gi/e their best*
Many of these 4"alities ca#e to the fore on his Day-1 in office* !he 12, acc"sto#ed to its
geriatric leadershi' f"nctioning &as inf"sed &ith energy5 of co"rse the elderly leaders des'ite
all the bo&ing and to"ching of feet &ere '"t to the 'ast"re as yo"nger leaders too. o/er .ey
f"nctions* !hey had '"t their faith in hi# and it &as 'ay off ti#e* 1"t "nder Modi they &ill
ha/e to e#erge as achie/ers*
!his &as in #ar.ed contrast to cabinet #a.ing 'rocess of Dr Man#ohan 6ingh* It &as directed
fro# the to' &ith little o''ort"nity for the ,ri#e Minister to de#"r* -at"rally it had disastro"s
i#'act "'on the ,Ms hydra-headed tea#s 'erfor#ance and acco"ntability*
7nother 'ro#ise Modi has .e't is to balance the need for #erit and talent in the cabinet against
the 'olitical co#'"lsions of #aintaining caste, religio"s and regional and coalition 'artners in
its co#'osition* He had 'ro#ised a lean cabinet and '"t together a tea# of 44 #inisters*
Ho&e/er, "nocc"'ied berths in so#e of the .ey #inistries li.e Defence 'ro#ise to s&ell the
n"#bers before the 1"dget session in 2"ly*
In/itation to 677RC leaders
M"ch has been read in Modis in/itation to 677RC leaders to attend his ina"g"ral cere#ony*
6o#e of the ne&s anchors al&ays .een to read tea lea/es ha/e called it a foreign 'olicy co"'*
!o do so &o"ld be o/er.ill* 1"t Modi the o''ort"nist "sed the ha''y occasion to garner so#e
good &ill in the neighbo"rhood &here a lot of s"s'icion lingers abo"t ho& he &o"ld lead the
go/ern#ent*
8n the other hand, Modi the sho&#an .no&s that to be res'ected as the ,ri#e Minister of the
largest de#ocracy, he has to gi/e a thoro"gh #a.eo/er of his i#age tarred by the 9estern 'ress
and %nglish #edia that described hi# as a :ascist and anti-M"sli# ha&.* 7nd he ;"st "sed the
o''ort"nity offered by the ina"g"ral cere#ony* !his &o"ld enable hi# to set the right tone for
enlarging his international acce'tability*
1y in/iting the 677RC leaders he has 'robably #ade a good start in this e0ercise* 1"t for the
s.e'tics to belie/e it &as #"ch #ore than a cos#etic e0ercise, the yardstic. &o"ld be on the
go/ern#ents 'erfor#ance in the co#ing #onths*
He has also sent a strong #essage of his 'reference for Indias i##ediate neighbo"rhood as his
foreign 'olicy 'riority* !he #essage &o"ld ha/e been #ore incl"si/e if Myan#ar ,ri#e
Minister had also been in/ited for the ina"g"ral*
Incl"sion of Ma"riti"s a#ong the in/itees is a strong indicator of the i#'ortance Modi attaches
to the Indian 8cean Region <I8R= &hich has i#'lications for the strategic sec"rity of the I8R*
In tande# &ith Maldi/es and 6ri 3an.a, Indias t&o other Indian 8cean neighbo"rs, it gi/es
in.ling to the li.ely enlarge#ent of the nascent #ariti#e sec"rity coo'eration bet&een India
and its island neighbo"rs*
1oth China and the >*6* &ho see the#sel/es as strategic sta.eholders &o"ld ha/e ta.en note of
Modis style* It 'ortends a confident, strong, and asserti/e leadershi' in Indias dealings &ith
other co"ntries*
-ationally, the Congress o''osition des'ite so#e nit-'ic.ing had no other choice b"t to s"''ort
his decision to in/ite 677RC leaders* !he other battered regional satra's had little to co##ent
as they &ere b"sy '"tting their ho"ses in order* 9e can see this ha''ening #ore often if Modi
deli/ers so#e of his 'ro#ises in real ti#e*
In/itation to -a&a( 6harif
1y in/iting ,a. ,ri#e Minister -a&a( 6harif and 6ri 3an.a ,resident Mahinda Ra;a'a.sa in
s'ite of o''osition fro# sections &ithin his o&n coalition, Modi has de#onstrated h is fir#
control o/er the go/ern#ent* Modi has also sho&n that &hile he is a&are of concerns of
coalition 'artners and states his decision, he &o"ld not hesitate to get thro"gh his decision if
need be in the national interest*
1oth the foreign leaders ha/e reci'rocated the good &ill behind the in/itation fro# Modi by
releasing Indian fisher#en in their c"stody* Des'ite all the bonho#ie sho&n in 'hoto
o''ort"nities &ith the#, Modi has re#inded the t&o leaders that India &as deter#ined to
'"rs"e its core interests in b"ilding a &in-&in relationshi' &ith its neighbo"rs and they need to
hel' re#o/e the i#'edi#ents in its &ay*
In the case of ,a.istan, he see# to ha/e highlighted the .ey iss"es of trans-border terroris#,
the need to s'eed "' follo& "' action in ,a.istan on 2?@11 terror attac.s, and o'ening "' of
,a.istan for Indian trade* -a&a( 6harif des'ite his #ore g"arded reaction see# to ha/e agreed
to coo'erate &ith India to ens"re that the de#ocratic go/ern#ent in 7fghanistan is not
destabili(ed after the &ithdra&al of >*6* forces by !aliban terrorists* If this goes thro"gh it
&o"ld be a re#ar.able brea.thro"gh to address Indias .ey sec"rity concerns relating of
7fghanistan affecting the stability of the entire region*
It &o"ld not be tr"e to narrati/e to read #"ch #ore than it in the #eetings* !hey are ice-
brea.ers to 'ro/ide the t&o sides to "nderstand the nat"re of change in Indian leadershi', &hile
'ro/iding the Indian ,ri#e Minister an o''ort"nity to '"t thro"gh his foreign 'olicy e0ercise*
:"rther 'rogress in relationshi' can only thro"gh after gro"nd is caref"lly 're'ared by the
res'ecti/e go/ern#ents*
In/itation to Mahinda Ra;a'a.sa
!he #eeting bet&een Modi and ,resident Ra;a'a.sa has both an international and national
conte0t* Modi has sho&n his readiness to b"ild "'on the strong relationshi' e0isting bet&een
the t&o co"ntries* 7t the sa#e ti#e, he has re4"ested 6ri 3an.a Ato e0'edite the 'rocess of
national reconciliation in a #anner that #eets the as'irations of the !a#il co##"nity for a life
of e4"ality, ;"stice, 'eace and dignity in a "nited 6ri 3an.aB in the &ords of the 6ecretary
Ministry of %0ternal 7ffairs Ms 6";ata 6ingh* !his &o"ld re#ind Ra;a'a.sa that he had still
not deli/ered "'on his 'ro#ises and ca"tion hi# of 'ossible i#'act on the relationshi' if he
contin"es to delay* He has also reass"red Ra;a'a.sa that tho"gh so#e of his 'olitical 'artners
are s"''orters of !a#il %ela#, there &as no change in his go/ern#ents stand on a "nited 6ri
3an.a*
Des'ite all the dra#a &ith )ai.os lo"d 'rotests in the Ca'ital, the din of blac. flag
de#onstrations in !a#il -ad", and the 6tate Chief Minister Ms 2 2ayalalithaa going into a s"l.,
Modis absol"te #a;ority in 'arlia#ent has gi/en hi# an o''ort"nity to str"ct"re his 6ri 3an.a
'olicy to #a.e it /ibrant* It has also gi/en hi# a chance to b"ild "'on the 12, alliance in !a#il
-ad" as the state 'olitics is in a state of fl"0 after Ms 2ayalalithaa scored a st"nning /ictory
red"cing the o''osition to single digit*
12,s 'resent 'artners in the state are 'olitical light &eights5 des'ite their reser/ations on
Modis 6ri 3an.a 'olicy they are li.ely to be #ore benefitted by contin"ing the alliance &ith
the 12,* !his &o"ld enable the# to ha/e so#e clo"t at the Centre essential for their
s"r/i/al* 7fter seeing Modi in action, so#e of these 'arties #ight rethin. on the /iability of
'"rs"ing a ha&.ish stance on 6ri 3an.a*
!he DMC, tho"gh red"ced to a (ero in the 'arlia#ent, still retains the loyalty of nearly one
fo"rth of /oters* Ho&e/er, the 'arty has still not reco/ered fro# the leadershi' 'aralysis that
str"c. it after the dr"bbing at 'olls* !he fratricidal str"ggle for the 'arty leadershi' bet&een the
DMC leader Car"nanidhis scions 7lagiri and 6talin contin"es*
7s tho"gh these are not eno"gh, Calaignar Car"nanidhi is in for hard days in his old age as
both his 'arty and the fa#ily net&or. that b"ild a h"ge fort"ne are in sha#bles* !he Da#ocles
6&ord of corr"'tion trials are hanging o/er his octegenrian &ife Mrs Dayal", da"ghter
Cani#o(hi , ne'he& Dayanidhi Maran and 'arty loyalist 7 Ra;a*
7s corr"'tion trials are li.ely to be s'eeded "' as 'ro#ised in the 12, #anifesto, DMC &ill
ha/e to re&or. its 'olitical strategies to s"r/i/e* !his #ight ind"ce the DMC to forget its
#"ch-hy'ed 'reference for sec"lar 'artnershi' to ta.e a re-loo. at the 12, alliance in the state*
7t the state le/el, Ms 2ayalalithaa &ent into hy'erbole on Modis in/itation to Ra;a'a.sa
describing it as betrayal and insensiti/ity to !a#il feelings on the 6ri 3an.a iss"e* 3ac. of
reaction fro# Modi 'robably #ade her boycott the ina"g"ral cere#ony* -ot only that, she &ent
on to ban her 'artys D$ ne&ly-elected 'arlia#entarians fro# attending it*
9hile this &as in .ee'ing &ith her Ablac. or &hiteB style of seeing #ore ene#ies than friends,
her not so friendly res'onse to Modi has to be "nderstood at t&o le/els E'ersonal and 'olitical*
9ith 'olitical '"ndits 'redicting the 'ossibility of a h"ng 'arlia#ent, her 'ri#e #inisterial
a#bitions soared*
Des'ite sec"ring D$ of the DF seats, Modis landslide /ictory nation&ide has '"t 'aid to her
a#bitions*
Her boycott of Modis ina"g"ral sho&s that she &as far fro# reconciled &ith the o"tco#e of
the elections at the national le/el* 9ith this negati/e attit"de, Ms 2ayalalithaa has lost a good
o''ort"nity to reco"' the good 'ersonal e4"ation she "sed to en;oy &ith Modi*
,olitically, she needs to i#'ro/e her relationshi' &ith the Modi go/ern#ent to #end her
fract"red Centre-state relationshi' of the 'ast* 6he needs to do#it as she needs Centres
coo'eration and good &ill to see thro"gh so#e of the a#bitio"s 'ro;ects in the state* 9ith the
state asse#bly elections d"e in another year and a half, she needs to sho& res"lts as the DMC
and all other o''osition 'arties &ill be &or.ing hard to '"t "' a better 'erfor#ance* 6o she can
be e0'ected to e/ol/e a face sa/ing #ethod of b"ilding better relations &ith Modi and the
Centre in that order in the co#ing #onths* 7nd the 'olitically sa//y 'ri#e #inister #ay
reci'rocate s"ch an o/ert"re if there is a f"t"re in it*
!h"s the e#erging 'olitical en/iron#ent in the state i#'ro/es the chances for Modi to &or.
o"t a holistic 6ri 3an.a 'olicy* 6"ch a 'olicy sho"ld address Indias national i#'erati/es as
&ell as the states s'ecific concerns on 6ri 3an.a !a#ils* It can gi/e #eaningf"l e0'ression to
Indias and !a#il -ad"s concerns not only to ser/e national interests, b"t also re#o/e so#e of
the bottlenec.s in India-6ri 3an.a relations* 1"t for all this to ha''en Modi has the diffic"lt
tas. of deli/ering his 'ro#ises5 and India and the &orld &ill be &atching*
<Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence s'ecialist on 6o"th 7sia, is associated &ith the
Chennai Centre for China 6t"dies and the 6o"th 7sia 7nalysis Gro"'* %-
MailH colhariIyahoo*co#* 1logH &&&*colhariharan*org
,osted 4 ho"rs ago by R* Hariharan