October 28, 2009

Area household incomes falling short

Bennett J. Loudon
Staff writer

Income declines in the Rochester area are outpacing national and statewide trends, according to
new U.S. Census Bureau data.

Median household income declined 4 percent nationwide and 1 percent in New York state from
1999 to 2008, when adjusted for inflation, while Monroe County saw an 11 percent drop, the
equivalent of about $6,300.

The inflation-adjusted decline was less in some Monroe County towns, but the smallest drop was
8 percent. And two towns, Irondequoit and Perinton, saw a 15 percent decline, according to the
census data.

The decline in the state and the Rochester area stems from a loss of high-paying manufacturing
jobs and the exodus of more than 1.5 million residents, representing billions of dollars in income.

Smaller incomes mean families have less to spend at local businesses while governments face
an increased demand for services for the poor and aging while trying to keep taxes under control.

"I think a lot of what we're looking at since 2000 is Kodak-related," said Kent Gardner, president
of the Center for Governmental Research.

Eastman Kodak Co.'s work force in Rochester has declined from about 24,000 at the end of 2000
to 8,500 at the end of 2008.

In addition, job losses at many small companies in the information technology and
telecommunications industries factored into the income declines, Gardner said.

"Retailers are dividing up smaller total spending. Total spending is less because people have less
disposable incomes," he said.

And smaller incomes mean fewer donations to charities and nonprofits, Gardner said.

In 2007 and 2008, the United Way of Greater Rochester fell short of the organization's annual
fundraising goal. As a result, the goal was lowered in 2009, when about $29 million — $750,000
more than the goal — was raised.

The information released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau is included in new data on a
variety of topics based on surveys conducted in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The new statistics are
available for communities with populations of at least 20,000, which includes 10 suburban towns
in addition to the city of Rochester and Monroe County.

In September, the Census Bureau released similar data for communities with populations of at
least 65,000, based on surveys conducted in 2008. In the Rochester area, that included Greece,
Rochester and Monroe County.

Because the data released Tuesday reflects surveys conducted over a three-year period, census
officials consider it more accurate, although both sets of data are estimates. And the new
estimates for the three communities with populations over 65,000 are slightly different from the
estimates released last month because they are based on surveys done over a different period.

In addition to the loss of high-wage jobs, incomes are being driven down because high-income
families are moving to other states, according to a recent report from the Empire Center for New
York State Policy.

Between 2000 and 2008, the state's total population grew by more than 450,000, partly due to
births and immigration from other countries. But the increase would have been greater if not for
the fact that more than 1.5 million more people left New York for other states than moved to New
York. And the people who left the state tend to be wealthier than those moving to the state,
according to the report.

In 2007, for example, the income of households moving out of the state averaged 13 percent
more than those moving in, according to the report prepared for the Empire Center by Wendell
Cox, a researcher at Demographia, a consulting firm in Belleville, Ill.

There is some evidence that income declines may be leveling off. Median household income in
Monroe County increased 2 percent, when adjusted for inflation, between 2005 and 2008. In
Rochester, the gain was 5 percent. But in Greece, median household income declined by 1
percent during that period. Data is not available to make similar comparisons in other Monroe
County communities.

Tony Favro, director of planning in Irondequoit, is skeptical about the accuracy of the census data
showing a 15 percent decline in inflation-adjusted median household income for the town
between 1999 and 2008.

He said the Census Bureau "is notorious for underestimating population and income" in years
between the decennial census.

"I don't think people should be alarmed because when the (decennial) census comes out ... the
numbers are going to be more favorable for this region than the estimates," he said.

BLOUDON@DemocratandChronicle.com