Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ComScore State of US Online Retail Economy in Q3 09
ComScore State of US Online Retail Economy in Q3 09
Consumer Measurements:
– Site Visitation
– Buying
– Mobile
Search – Payment Method
Video Behavior
– Attitudes and Intentions
– Demographics
Media Retailer Views
Exposure
– Multi-Channel vs. Pure Play
+17%
$221
+20% $200
-3%
+22%
$171 +9%
+26%
+12%
$153
+29%
$143
+13%
$117
+20% -6%
$93 +26%
$72 +33%
+6%
+21%
+24%
Travel +24%
-1%
+26%
+26%
Non-
Travel
23%
19%
17%
13%
11%
6%
0% -1% -2%
-3%
4% 4% 5% 4%
2% 1%
-8%
-10% -9%
Note: The U.S. Department of Commerce calculation includes total retail and
food service sales, which also includes motor vehicles and parts dealers
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. 7
Sales trends through the third quarter of „09 mirror last year and
show no growth
% Chg
vs. Prior
+43% -15% -3% +5% +38% -20% -2% -1% +26% -18% -3% -2%
Quarter
$39.1 $38.1
$33.0 $31.2
$30.6 $30.3 $31.0 $30.2 $29.6
$28.4
$28.0 $27.2
Billions ($)
Q4 '06 Q1 '07 Q2 '07 Q3 '07 Q4 '07 Q1 '08 Q2 '08 Q3 '08 Q4 '08 Q1 '09 Q2 '09 Q3 '09
“Retail sales showed further signs of stabilization in October, according to new data from Mastercard‟s
SpendingPulse unit, but they're not posting the kind of gains that would significantly boost the economy.”
--WSJ Blogs, November 12, 2009
$100K or more
18-44 yrs of age ………………………….. +10%
45 yrs or older……………………………… -12%
77% 75%
73%
4% 4% 6% % Spending More on
Non-Essentials
50% 46%
65% % Spending Less on
Non-Essentials
Total 29% 28% 32% 32% 46% 46% 40% 42% 14% 15% 13% 13% 7% 8% 8% 8%
Household Income
$100K or more 15% 7% 22% 19% 42% 44% 28% 34% 20% 34% 30% 27% 19% 11% 11% 15%
$50K-$99,999 21% 22% 27% 28% 50% 50% 44% 43% 18% 17% 15% 13% 9% 10% 10% 12%
Under $50K 36% 38% 40% 39% 44% 44% 39% 42% 10% 8% 6% 9% 3% 7% 6% 4%
“The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to 10.2% in October, the highest level
since April 1983. The government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up even more,
rising half a point to 17.5%.” –WSJ, Nov. „09
85%
76%
71%
Yes
No
15% 24% 29%
“U.S. consumer credit fell in September for an eighth “The U.S. jobless rate jumped up 0.4 percentage point to
straight month, the longest series of declines on 10.2% in October, the highest level since April 1983. The
record, as thousands of Americans lost their jobs government‟s broader measure of unemployment shot up
and banks tightened access to loans… More than even more, rising half a point to 17.5%.”
100 banks have failed this year, and lenders are
requiring tougher conditions for the credit they
extend to consumers and businesses.”
“More than one percentage point of GDP growth in the third quarter came from car sales,
driven in a large part by the temporary "cash for clunkers" program. After surging in July
and August, retail car sales dropped 10.4% in September.”
--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009
“Q3 GDP was also propped up by home building, which rose for the first time since
2005…and contributed a half-percentage point to GDP growth. But much of the housing
revival reflects government efforts to push down mortgage rates, prevent or at least slow
foreclosures, and reward home buyers with tax credits.”
--WSJ, Oct 30, 2009
“Banks are buying U.S. government debt in an effort to shore up their balance sheets…Bank
lending is basically back to where it was two years ago, and shows no sign off
rebounding...Lending to small business, the real engine of job creation, is sadly decreasing
each month.”
--John Mauldin, President, Millennium Wave Advisors, LLC
“The country has lost more jobs as a percentage of peak employment than any time since the Great Depression.
This includes the recessions of the early 1980s, even when they are combined.”
--The Business Insider, Oct. „09
6%
“The holiday period represents anywhere between 25% and 40% of the industry's annual sales and is make-
or-break for some categories, according to NRF.”
– WSJ, Oct. „09
Average # of sites
buyers purchased
on, of those who 2.97 3.02 2.97 3.33 2.84 2.84 2.75
bought from more
than one site.
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09
1 site 2+ sites
3% 3% 8% 3% 4% 3%
Average change in
Buyer Conversion
vs. year ago among
top retailers:
-3%
Q3 „09 UV‟s
4.7 37.0 10.8 14.8
(MM)
© comScore, Inc. Proprietary and Confidential. 28 Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement & Media Metrix
While luxury department stores have taken a hit in this economy,
invitation-only e-luxury sites are flourishing – at least in visitation
118%*
500
Total Gilt
450 HauteLook Ideeli RueLaLa
+199% +222% Internet Groupe
400
Unique Visitors (000)
*Note: comScore began tracking Hautelook in October „09 therefore its above
growth rate is calculated vs. Jan „09 instead of vs. YA
Groupon.com – a relatively new “deal-of-the-day” site with a slightly different model and
broader appeal – has grown 250% from July 2009 to September 2009.
9.5%
6.5% 7.5%
4.5% 4.1% 5.0%
2.3% 3.5%
Point
In Q4 08, Overstock.com customers were Q3 08 Q4 08
Change
presented with 15% cash back on a $100
purchase when using PayPal 15.0% 18.6% 3.6
Overstock.com
Dell.com gave PayPal preferential Dell.com 1.9% 7.0% 5.1
treatment, positioning the payment option
right under Dell‟s payment plan and above AE.com 3.0% 8.0% 5.0
all other credit card options
350
+10% +22% +16%
300
Offers per Retailer
2008 2009
“Shoppers are „testing the waters a little more aggressively," said Ken Perkins, president of Retail
Metrics Inc., a retail research firm. "They've gone from dipping their toe into the discretionary pool
to stepping in a little further, maybe up to their ankles.” – WSJ, Nov. „09
Growth in Unique Visitors & Total Visits to % Composition of Coupon Users on Selected
Coupon Sites vs. YA Retail Sites in September 2009
Source: comScore Media Metrix Source: comScore Segment Metrix
In-store sales is still the primary metric we focus on. How do I prove that my holiday
marketing spend drove incremental sales in my physical retail locations?
I‟m advertising heavily across multiple channels this holiday season. What mix of
marketing channels (digital and traditional) have the most significant impact on my
brand?
Have retailers‟ market shares shifted during the holidays within the Consumer
Electronics category? – Same question for Apparel
I know which digital marketing tactics (search, display, email, etc.) are driving traffic
to my site. Which are most successful in driving online sales? How does this
compare to my competitors?
What do my category buyers do before ultimately purchasing? What sites do they
visit? What do they search for?
We‟ve ramped up our search spend this holiday season. How do I validate that this
spend drove incremental sales that we wouldn‟t have gotten if we didn‟t spend?
I know where to find my demographic target online, and I know where to find heavy
visitors to my category. How do I determine where my category buyers are online so
I can design my media plan accordingly?
Overall, 50% of consumers anticipate their spending to be less this holiday season
7%
More than I Typically Spend
8%
9%
55%
45% About the same
37%
46% 39%
55%
Less than I Typically Spend
Share of Online
Retail Spend: (21%) (45%) (34%)
Holiday Travel
Source: comScore Survey October 2009
Yes
No
Smart merchants will look at consumer behavior and apply free shipping and
Promotions other promotional offers to specific customer segments during specific time
periods. (Internet Retailer, Oct. ‘09)
Because of the economic downturn this year, many retailers are under-
ordering products – Baird notes that retailers’ inbound container shipments
are down 16% from a year ago. (Bloomberg, Oct. ‘09)
Inventory
Management Shoppers willing to pry open their wallets may find a surprise on the shelves
this season: not as many brands, a diminished palette of colors, and fewer
deep discounts. (Boston Globe, Oct. ‘09)
Nearly half the nation's 25 biggest retail chains expect to hire fewer holiday
Personnel/ workers this season than they did last year, another sign that retailers aren't
Staffing counting on recession-strained shoppers to relax the tight grip on their
pocketbooks this year. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. ‘09)
The web will influence one in three holiday purchases this year, and retailers
are using the Internet not only as a sales channel but also as a marketing
Tweaking vehicle. (Shop.org, Oct.‘09)
Marketing Mix
The proliferation of mobile applications and social networks may yield new
opportunities to pursue targeted advertising, build brand loyalty and measure
campaign effectiveness. (Retail Trading, Sept. ‘09)
No 68%
Yes 32%
Percentage of e-Commerce Transactions with Free Shipping Average Order Value (AOV)
Source: comScore e-Commerce Measurement Free Versus Paid Shipping
Free Paid
Time
Shipping Shipping
Period
AOV AOV
Q1 08 $113 $86
Q2 08 $120 $88
Q3 08 $115 $91
Q4 08 $116 $96
Q1 09 $114 $87
Q2 09 $104 $88
Q3 09 $106 $90
Retail Predictions
The International Council of Shopping Centers: +1%
Deloitte Research: flat
Retail Forward: flat
Archstone Consulting: - 1%
National Retail Federation: -1%
E-commerce Predictions
Historical Comparison
Forrester: +8% Dept of Commerce Forrester
Q1 2009 -5.8% +11%
Q2 2009 -4.5% +12%
We‟re seeing clear signs that we‟ve hit the bottom of the decline in e-commerce
spending, and comScore expects some modest growth in the holiday season
compared to last year
Consumers continue to be very cautious about their spending given concerns about:
– The job market/unemployment/lack of job creation
– Declines in housing prices/Underwater mortgages
– Lack of credit and too much debt
– Rising gas prices
E-commerce continues to attract more buyers, but they are spending less than a
year ago by completing fewer transactions and spending less per shopping trip
Retailers are hiring fewer workers and carefully planning their inventory so as to
avoid heavy discounting post-season
The holiday season will likely be characterized by heavy discounts/price wars,
promotions/couponing, an earlier start to the season and an increased use of digital
marketing