American-Eurasian J. Agric. & Environ. Sci.

, 13 (2): 218-221, 2013

ISSN 1818-6769
IDOSI Publications, 2013
DOI: 10.5829/idosi.aejaes.2013.13.02.1949
Corresponding Author: S.M. Alsheikh, Animal and Poultry Division, Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt.

218
Prediction of Daily Milk Yield Using Different Body
Measurements of Shami Goats in Sinai, Egypt
S.M. Alsheikh
Animal and Poultry Division, Desert Research Center, Cairo, Egypt
Abstract: This study was carried out during year 2009 using 19 Shami does and 29 of their kids at Ras Sudr
Research Station of Desert Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Egypt to obtain some prediction
equations of daily milk yield (DMY) from some different body measurements. Body length (BL), withers
height (WH), heart girth (HG) and hip height (HH) was achieved using measuring tape. These applications
were done on does from kidding up to wean their kids (at 12 weeks) and at first week of age for kids up to
weaning. DMY and all measurements were recorded weekly up to 4 weeks, than at week 8 and week 12.
Three stepwise regression models were studied to predict DMY from studied body measurements at each
studied weeks; the first model was done on doe's measurements. While, the second model was done on kids
measurements and the third model was done on both does and kids measurements. The results indicated that
values of coefficients of determination (R ) of does model were less than 30%. R values in other two studied
2 2
models were in acceptable level (more than 50%). The highest R value was obtained at week 4 in does and
2
kids model (third model), when used two does variables (WH and HH) and two kids variables (BL and HG).
Also, in the same model, using the same pervious variables plus writher height of kids at week 12 increased
the R to 79%. The second model was used the body length of kids with reasonable R to predict DMY, which
2 2
reached to 67 % in most studied weeks. It was concluded that DMY of Shami does could be predicted under
the present study by using different doe's and kid's body measurements and it could be use kids' body length
as a good measurement to predict DMY with reasonable R .
2
Key words: Shami goats Milk yield Stepwise regression Body measurements
INTRODUCTION Relation between daily milk yield and these measurements
The domestication of the goat species, their The degree of variance explanation in regression models
movement and distribution across continents have are affected by independent variable numbers on
resulted in 187 goat breed populations (33%) are in dependent variable. Also, increasing number of
Europe, 146 (26%) in Asia and Pacific region and 89 (16%) independent variable is not practical. So, it is necessary
in Africa [1]. Goats play a critical role in supporting to select the least number of variables for explaining the
families in most parts of rural Africa [2]. The milk of goats most of these variables variation [7, 8]. Stepwise is one of
is of particular economic interest in certain areas of the the methods, which reduced the number of variables in
world. In developing countries, the production of goat the regression model. The aim of this study is developing
milk has come to be a useful strategy to tackle the problem regression equations to predict the daily milk yield form
of under nutrition of the infant population [3]. Some body some body measurements in Shami goats which are raised
measurements are usually used to estimate the live body at South Sinai, Egypt.
weight for a long time [4]. Using this kind of estimation
could also be applicable in dairy goat. Using some body MATERIALS AND METHODS
measurements correlated with daily milk yield could be an
easy way to predict daily milk yield. These measurements Study Location: This study was carried out on the
are body length, withers height, heart girth and hip height. available Shami goat herd (19 does and 29 of their kids)
are investigated with regression equations [5, 6].
Am-Euras. J. Agric. & Environ. Sci., 13 (2): 218-221, 2013
219
during year 2009 at Ras Sudr Research Station of Desert
Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture and Land
Reclamation, Egypt, located at 29 35N and 32o 42E.
Data Collection: For Daily Milk Yield (DMY) prediction,
body length (BL), withers height (WH), heart girth (HG)
and hip height (HH) were achieved using measuring
tape. These applications were done on does at kidding up
to wean their kids (at 12 weeks) and at first week for kids
up to weaning. Does were kept a way from their kids for
12 hours (over night) and then one teat from the two teats
was hand milking. So, DMY for 24 hours for the two teats
was estimated as amount of milking milk for one teat Wither Height 27.130.540
multiplied by 4. DMY and all measurements were recorded
weekly up to fourth week, then at week 8 and week 12.
All measurements are applied while animals are standing
in normal pose. The measurements were taken as follows:
Body Length (BL): The distance from the tip of sternum
to the tail base
Heart Girth (HG): The circumference of the chest just
behind the forelegs
Withers Height (WH): the distance from ground to the
shoulder-blades
Hip Height (HH): Height from ground to the spina illiaca
Statistical Analyses: Data were analyzed using stepwise
regression procedure [9]. The stepwise regression
(for more details see [10] was used to determine the most
suitable regression model to predict DMY from different
studied body measurement at each studied weeks
(1, 2, 3, 4, 8 and 12 weeks). Three models were studied to
predict DMY; the first model was done on doe's
measurements. While, the second model was done on
kids measurements and the third model was done on
both does and kids measurements.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Average daily milk yield per gram and body weight of
kids per kg and all studied body measurements per
centimeter for both does and kids are presented in
Table 1. The average daily milk yield was 820 38 g and
closed to 790 129 g, which obtained by El-Gandy et al.
[11] and Goonewardene et al. [12] (740810kg on Zaraibi
goat). While, this value was higher than 253.11.5kg
obtained by Aboul-Naga et al. [13] as an overall mean of
Table 1: Average daily milk yield (g), kids body weight (kg) and body
measurements (cm) of does and kids standard error.
Variable Mean SE
Av. Daily milk yield 82038
Body weight 5.900.166
Body measurements
Does
Body length 57.210.283
Wither Height 41.760.177
Hip height 41.930.210
Heart girth 31.660.236
Kids
Body length 27.240.555
Hip height 26.500.539
Heart girth 22.750.458
Table2: Correlation coefficients between daily milk yield (g) and body
measurements (cm) of does and kids.
Body measurements Correlation coefficients
-------------------------------------------------
Does Kids
Body length -0.09NS -0.36**
Wither Height 0.12NS -0.33**
Hip height 0.17* -0.35**
Heart girth 0.02NS -0.30**
NS: not significant (P>0.05), * Significant (P<0.05),
** Significant (P<0.01).
DMY of Zaraibi goat. Also, this value was higher than
that reported by Abdel-Raheem [14] and Abdel-Moneim
[15] being 240 and 136.5kg, respectively, for the Zaraibi
goat and higher than the estimates by Hamed [16] and
Shaat and Maki-Tanila [17] on the Zaraibi goat, (263 and
272kg, respectively. Body weight is nearest to 6.3kg that
obtained by Alsheikh [18]. Estimates of the correlation
coefficients between daily milk yield (DMY) per gram and
studied body measurements are presented in Table 2.
DMY was not significant (P>0.05) correlated with all
studied does body measurements except with hip height.
The coefficients were -0.09, 0.12, 0.17 and 0.02 for BL, WH,
HH and HG, respectively. On the opposed, DMY was
highly significant (P<0.01) negative correlated with all
studied kids body measurements. The coefficients
were-0.36, -0.33, -0.35 and -0.30 for BL, WH, HH and HG,
respectively in kids. These results indicated that body
measurements of kids were more correlated with DMY
than body measurements of does. Also, the negative
correlated between DMY and kids body measurements
could be due to decreasing milk production from birth to
weaning and increase kids body measurements with
increase kids age old.
Am-Euras. J. Agric. & Environ. Sci., 13 (2): 218-221, 2013
220
Table 3: Prediction equations for daily milk yield (DMY)/ g from different body measurements and their coefficients of determination (R2 %) values.
Weeks Equations R2
Does model
1 DMY= - 1.24 + 0.07HG 9
2 No variable met the 0.15 significance level for entry into the model --
3 DMY = - 2.21 - 0.07 BW + 0.14 WH 28
4 DMY = 0.63 - 0.10 BL + 0.14 WH 28
8 No variable met the 0.15 significance level for entry into the model --
12 DMY = - 0.28 + 0.02 HH 11
Kids model
1 DMY = - 0.02 + 0.05 BL 15
2 DMY = - 0.37 + 0.09 BW + 0.03 BL 58
3 DMY = 0.02 + 0.03 BL 15
4 DMY = -1.73 + 0.07 BL 67
8 DMY = 0.86 - 0.02 BL + 0.02 WH 59
12 DMY = - 0.45 + 0.01 BL + 0.01 HH 57
Does and kids model
1 DMY = -2.85 - 0.10 D_BL + 0.1 D_HH + 0.12 D_HG + 0.08 K_BL 58
2 DMY = -1.60 + 0.04 D_WH + 0.03 K_BL 58
3 DMY = -2.26 - 0.08 D_BL + 0.15 D_WH + 0.04 K_HH 45
4 DMY = -0.80 - 0.14 D_WH + 0.10 D_HH + 0.07 K_BL + 0.018 K_HG 80
8 DMY = 0.68 + 0.01 D_HG - 0.03 K_BL + 0.02 K_WH 63
12 DMY = -1.09 - 0.03 D_WH + 0.40 D_HH + 0.02 K_HG + 0.01 K_BL + 0.01 K_WH 79
BW= Body weight, WH= Withers height, BL= Body length, HH= Hip height, HG= Heart girth, D= Doe, K=kids
The three studied stepwise regression models and to 79%. Anyhow, from kid's model, it could be use kids
their coefficient of determination (R ) values for prediction body length as a good measurement to predicate DMY
2
of DMY from the different studied measurements are with reasonable R , which rich to 67 % in most studied
given in Table 3. R values of does models was less than weeks.
2
30% and it increased by increasing number of variables.
This result with non-significant correlation between DMY CONCLUSION
and studied body measurements of does indicted that
there was no important of using these measurements in As a conclusion, daily milk yield of Shami does could
predicting the DMY. R values in other two studied be predicted under the present study by using some
2
models were in acceptable level (more than 50%) except at body measurements of does and kids and it could be use
week one and week three in kid's model and at week three kids' body length as a good measurement to predict
in does and kids model. R is statistically widely used to DMY with reasonable R , which reach to 67 %.
2
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