ORI GI NAL PAPER

Susceptibility to shallow landslides in a drainage basin

in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil, predicted using
the SINMAP mathematical model
Tulius Dias Nery

Bianca Carvalho Vieira
Received: 8 February 2014 / Accepted: 29 April 2014
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
Abstract The Serra do Mar mountain range is a fault
scarp with steep slopes that are often affected by shallow
landslides triggered by extreme rainfall. Most of these
events result in casualties and economic and environmental
damage, especially in areas close to urban centers, major
roadways and agricultural areas. The goal of this study was
to evaluate the susceptibility to shallow landslides in the
Serra do Mar, specically within a drainage basin affected
by such an event in January of 1985. For this purpose, the
mathematical modeling technique of SINMAP was used by
introducing the topographic values from a digital terrain
model as well as geotechnical and hydrological values
from previous studies performed in the Serra do Mar. In all,
32 susceptibility scenarios were generated, and three were
analyzed for this study. These scenarios were validated
using landslide scar maps produced using orthophotogra-
phy; this technique was also used to analyze the functions
of morphological parameters (e.g., slope angle, curvature
and hypsometric features). The basin was classied as
unstable, with landscape rates above 70 % for all three of
the scenarios chosen. A higher landscape frequency was
expected on straight slopes with angles between 30 and
50 under unsaturated soil conditions, as evidenced by low
moisture rates, especially for NS-facing slopes. The sus-
ceptibility maps generated using this model should prove
useful for other critical parts of the Serra do Mar to
understand better and, above all, predict these landslides,
which annually cause signicant damage in Brazil.
Keywords Serra do Mar Shallow landslides Digital
terrain model SINMAP
Introduction
In Brazil between 1928 and 2011, more than 4,000 deaths
occurred because of mass movements. In addition to large
urban centers, such as Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Recife,
and Salvador, the Serra do Mar mountain range, a fault
scarp that extends 1,500 km along the south and southeast
coast of Brazil and passes through the states of Rio de
Janeiro, Sao Paulo, Parana and Santa Catarina, is often
affected by events of great magnitude. Geological, geo-
technical, and geomorphological characteristics, such as
steep slopes and soil with important hydrological discon-
tinuities and sandy textures along with total rainfall that
can reach up to 4,500 mm/year in some regions, make the
Serra do Mar extremely susceptible to different types of
mass-wasting, especially shallow landslides and debris
ow. For example, in 2010 and 2011, this geological-
geomorphic compartment suffered two major mass move-
ments that together resulted in over 1,200 deaths in the
Serra do Mar region of Rio de Janeiro State (Fig. 1).
Despite being considered an area of high susceptibility,
the Serra do Mar is occupied by various anthropogenic
structures along almost its entire extension, particularly
urban districts, creating numerous risk areas. Given this
scenario, geological, geotechnical and geomorphological
T. D. Nery
National Early Warning and Monitoring Center for Natural
Disasters, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
e-mail: tulius.nery@cemaden.gov.br; tuliusdias@usp.br
T. D. Nery
Graduate Program in Physical Geography, University of Sao
Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
B. C. Vieira (&)
Department of Geography, University of Sao Paulo, Prof. Lineu
Prestes Avenue, 338, Cidade Universitaria, Sao Paulo, Brazil
e-mail: biancacv@usp.br
1 3
Bull Eng Geol Environ
DOI 10.1007/s10064-014-0622-8
studies have been systematically developed since the 1960s
(e.g., Costa Nunes 1969; De Ploey and Cruz 1979; Vargas
et al. 1986; Wolle and Hachich 1989; Lacerda 2007).
Various methods are currently used for the prediction in
space and time of shallow landslides. Among them, phys-
ically based models present many advantages associated
with the physical description of these processes from
mathematical equations. Examples of these models include
the SHALSTAB model (Montgomery and Dietrich 1994),
the dSLAM model (Wu and Sidle 1995), the Stability
Index Mapping, or SINMAP, model (Pack et al. 1998) and
the TRIGRS model (Baum et al. 2002; Bogaart and Troch
2006). However, for Brazil and especially for the Serra do
Mar, the literature still contains few studies using mathe-
matical models to assess the susceptibility to landslides or
considering these models as a tool for use by public
agencies to minimize or even prevent the occupation of
these high-risk areas. Thus, physically based mathematical
models have the potential to reduce the costs of identifying
unstable areas and to improve our understanding of hill
slope failure mechanisms in the Serra do Mar, where there
are few eld investigations and extremely difcult areas to
access because of its steep slopes and dense tropical rain-
forest cover.
The scant literature that does exist for Brazil regarding
such applications of these models includes a study by
Guimaraes et al. (2003), who were the rst to use a
mathematical model (the SHALSTAB model) to dene the
areas of high landslide susceptibility in Rio de Janeiro City.
Listo and Vieira (2012) also used such a model to identify
highly susceptible urban regions, many of which had
already been mapped as high-risk landslide areas. Lopes
et al. (2007), studying the Serra do Mar in the state of Sao
Paulo, used a regional scale and SINMAP along with a
debris ow method to simulate the susceptibility to shallow
landslides and the potential for the transformation of debris
ow from different rainfall events. Similarly, Gomes et al.
(2008) used SHALSTAB to predict shallow landslides and
Fig. 1 General mass-wasting
that occurred in the Serra do
Mar in 2010 (a) and 2011 (b) in
Rio de Janeiro State
(photographs by Bianca
Carvalho Vieira (a) and Nelson
Ferreira Fernandes (b))
T. D. Nery, B. C. Vieira
1 3
FLO-2D, another mathematical model, to study the debris
ow within two basins located in the coastal ranges of the
city of Rio de Janeiro. Vieira et al. (2010) used TRIGRS to
evaluate the susceptibility of the area to shallow landslides.
Considering its advantages for the prediction of shallow
landslides in steep areas during intense rainfall events, the
objective of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility to
landslides in the Serra do Mar using the SINMAP model.
This research is important because even with the hundreds
of landslides and the great number of deaths every year,
there are few studies using these models to prediction
shallow landslides.
Study area
For this study, the Ultrafertil drainage basin was selected.
This basin is located on a stretch of the Serra do Mar in the
state of Sao Paulo (Fig. 2) and has an area of 2.5 km
2
with
altimetric slopes up to 1,000 m, angles between 30 and
40 and a predominance of convex and rectilinear slopes
facing mainly E-SE. This area of the Serra do Mar is
supported by Precambrian metamorphic and igneous rocks,
migmatite, mica schists, gneisses, and granites that
regionally present extremely well-dened structural fea-
tures and a primarily NE-SW orientation.
Fig. 2 Location of the Ultrafertil basin in the Serra do Mar fault scarp in Sao Paulo
Susceptibility to shallow landslides
1 3
The average rainfall for this stretch of the Serra do Mar
exceeds 3,300 mm/year and occasionally reaches
4,500 mm, with the highest totals between October and
March. The most intense rainfall in the Serra do Mar is
usually caused by an interaction between cold fronts
coming from the Antarctic polar region and the warm
tropical air masses along the Brazilian coast. Furthermore,
the rainfall varies spatially with topographical features that
increase toward the edge of the plateau, and the highest
total rainfall occurs in the higher mountains of the Serra do
Mar.
The event studied here occurred between January 22 and
23, 1985, with precipitation of approximately 380 mm in
48 h. Landslides were recorded in several basins, including
the Ultrafertil basin, in which 1,742 landslides were reg-
istered (Fig. 3) according to Lopes et al. (2007). The
material washed downhill into the main rivers and caused
the formation of debris ows and the ooding of extensive,
low-lying areas that were occupied by residential structures
and industrial units. The latter land use occurs in the
industrial park of Cubatao, which currently contains
approximately 23 industrial units. During this same event,
an industrial pipe containing ammonia ruptured, causing
serious environmental and social damage to the region.
Many of the 1985 landslides occurred in the dense,
preserved areas of the Atlantic forest (Mata Atlantica),
which contains tall species with broad leaves, a quite
complex oristic composition, and degraded vegetation
because of the pollutants emitted for years by the regional
petrochemical industries, especially during the 1970s.
In the Serra do Mar, the surface layers are 12 m thick
and have a loamy sand texture; a lower layer that is 34 m
thick consists of saprolitic soil with a sandy texture. On the
mountain slopes located in the lower and middle parts of
the Serra do Mar range, the ruptures occur more frequently
at the junction between the colluvium/talus and the residual
material (Lacerda 2007). On the steeper slopes, thinner
layers are in direct contact with the rock, promoting a
parallel ow in most cases, which increases the positive
pressure of the soil water and consequently causes rupture.
However, according to Lacerda (2007), most of the shallow
landslides occur because of the loss of suction resulting
from the increased hydraulic conductivity with depth,
which is promoted by the presence of interconnected
fractures that increase the percolation of rainwater from the
surface to the weathered rock.
Materials and methods
Morphological parameters and mapping of landslide
scars
The morphological parameters (slope angle, aspect, cur-
vature and hypsometric features) were derived from a
digital terrain model with a resolution of 2 m
2
that was
built from topographic maps (1:10,000 scale).
To map the scars from the landslides that occurred in
1985, aerial orthophotos at a 1:25,000 scale were obtained
from the National Institute of Space Research (INPE). Two
types of landslide representation were used in this research:
a point-shaped one was used to assist in the validation of
the SINMAP mathematical model, and a polygon-shaped
one was used to assist in the correlation of the scars with
the topographic parameters. In this latter case, the scars
were identied based on a visual analysis of the features,
adopting the following criteria: scar geometry, absence of
vegetation, position on the slope, contour lines and texture
analysis. To evaluate the role of the morphological
parameters, a correlation analyses between the maps of the
Fig. 3 a Mass movements along a stretch of the Serra do Mar in the
state of Sao Paulo that occurred during and after intense rainfall in
January 1985 (sourced from the Institute for Technological Research
of the State of Sao Paulo). b Industrial park that is located in the
foothills of the Serra do Mar and often affected by materials
descending the slopes and disrupting local activities (photograph by
Marcelo F. Gramani)
T. D. Nery, B. C. Vieira
1 3
slope angles, aspects, curvatures and hypsometric features
and the map of the scars using the number of cells affected
by landslides was performed, as proposed by Gao and
Maro (2009).
Use of the SINMAP model
The model developed by Pack et al. (1998) is based on the
combination of a stability model and a hydrological model
used to dene a stability index (SI) (Eq. 1), which is
dened as the probability of a stable slope, assuming a
uniform distribution of the parameters on the uncertainty
margins; this index ranges from 0 (unstable) to 1 (stable).
SI
C cosh 1 min
Ra
Tsinh
; 1

r

tanu
sinh
1
The variable a is the specic catchment area (m
2
/m).
C is the dimensionless cohesion of the soil and tree roots
combined (N/m
2
), h is the angle of the slope (), and U is
the angle of internal friction (). The water/soil density
ratio is represented by r, and R/T is the water recharge
divided by the soil transmissivity (m
2
/h). These last four
parameters are manually input into the model. A value of 1
indicates that any excess above this limit is assigned to one
ow over the soil surface.
Rainfall data were obtained from a pluviometric post
that collected data every 5 min for the Department of
Water and Energy of the state of Sao Paulo (Departamento
de A

guas e Energia Eletrica do Estado de Sao Paulo

DAEE) and served as the input parameter for the variable R
(constant recharge) in the calculation of the T/R ratio.
Therefore, in the present study, actual data from January 22
and 23 were used and were separated into three intervals of
6 h each: (1) 0.0000032 m/s; (2) 0.00001 m/s and (3)
0.000036 m/s.
The geotechnical and hydrological data that compose
the cohesion variables (c
r
and c
s
) (Table 1) and transmis-
sivity (T) of the model were taken from work previously
performed at the Serra do Mar by Wolle and Carvalho
(1994), Amaral (2007), and Mendes (2008). For the
hydraulic conductivity, the simulations were based on the
values collected in situ by Wolle and Hachich (1989),
assuming only one value for the transmissivity
(T = 1.3 9 10
-5
m
2
/s). These data were obtained in situ
and after testing in the laboratory to evaluate the inltration
dynamics within the soil and their role in the occurrence of
shallow landslides in the Serra do Mar.
From the information in Table 1 and the values
obtained from the T/R ratio, 32 simulations were per-
formed, changing each parameter relative to the thickness
of the soil (1, 1.5, and 3.5 m) in an attempt to nd a
better correlation between the areas of greater suscepti-
bility and the scar map, and thus facilitate an under-
standing of the physical and hydrological disruptions in
the Serra do Mar based on the structure model. This
article presents the top three scenarios. For each scenario,
there was variation in the parameters of cohesion, density,
soil thickness, and the T/R ratio: scenario 1 (1 m thick
soil), scenario 2 (1.5 m thick soil), and scenario 3 (3.5 m
thick soil) (Table 2).
Table 1 Geotechnical parameters of the different instrumented areas of the Serra do Mar
Local/authors Slo. () Lit. Solo Textura Thick.
(m)
c
d
(KN/m
3
)
c
(KPa)
U
()
c
w
(KN/m
3
)
c
(KPa)
U
()
Study area/parameters
Cubatao (SP)
(Wolle and
Carvalho 1994)
40 Migmatites Supercial Sand-clay 1 14.3 6.0 34 17.1 1.0 34
Saprolite Sand-or Silt 1 a 2 18.0 12.0 45 19.5 4.0 39
43 Supercial Clay-sand 1 16.5 9.5 40 18.2 1.0 36
Saprolite Sand or Silt 1 a 2 18.5 11.0 45 20.1 3.5 39
Ubatuba (SP)
(Mendes
2008)
*10 Migmatites Saprolite Sand-silt 14 NI NI NI 28.2 13.0 31.4
Residual Sand-siltclay 1 NI NI NI 27.8 9.5 32.9
*15 Charmockies Residual Sand-clay 1 NI NI NI 27.1 10.0 31.6
Saprolite Sand-clay-silt 7 a 8 NI NI NI 27.6 7.0 40.4
Costa Verde
(RJ) (Amaral
Junior 2007)
SI Biotite Gneiss Residual mature Sand-siltclay 0.1 a 20 13.32 14.5 37 15.56 8.0 32
Residual young Sand-silt 0.2 a 8 14.85 17.5 41 16.98 4.5 42
Saprolite Sand-silt NI 12.5 26.5 32 14.9 10.0 32
Migmatites Residual mature Sand-silt 0.8 a 7 12.72 6.5 42 13.27 5.5 39
Residual young Sand-siltclay 0.5 a 3 11.03 6.5 45 13.45 1.0 42
Saprolite Sand-silt 0.8 a 30 12.42 12.0 34 13.33 9.0 32
Legend: NI no information, Slo slope, Lit lithology, Thick Thickness, c
d
dry unit weights, c
w
wet unit weights, c cohesion, U angle of internal
friction
Susceptibility to shallow landslides
1 3
Results and discussion
A total of 216 landslide scars from the 1985 event were
mapped in the basin, with a total area of 108,420 m
2
and a
sediment volume of approximately 135,525 m
3
. The shal-
low landslides were sparse and widespread in the basin,
ranging from the gentler slopes closer to the industrial park
to the highest parts of the mountain range and the drainage
divides.
Analysis of morphological parameters
The convex and rectilinear slopes with angles between 30
and 50 were more susceptible to shallow landslides
(Fig. 4a), conrming the results obtained in the Serra do
Mar by other authors, such as De Ploey and Cruz (1979),
Wolle and Hachich (1989), and Vieira et al. (2010).
The greatest concentration of landslides on the convex
slopes can be explained in terms of the differentiated
hydrological behavior of these slopes: the convex mor-
phology allows for material accumulation, leading to lower
shear resistance. In fact, compared with other slope con-
gurations, these convex slopes require more rain to
increase the saturation level and reduce the stability forces
(Reneau and Dietrich 1987). It is believed that the accu-
mulation of 380 mm of precipitation in 48 h may have
favored the generalized occurrence of these processes
along these slopes.
The rectilinear and convex slopes facing W-SW had the
greatest number of landslides (Fig. 4b). The interference of
the slope aspect with the distribution of solar radiation and
rain (Gao and Maro 2009) may explain the occurrence of
various types of processes according to different moisture
levels (Bogaart and Troch 2006). That is, the highest
concentration of these processes on the W-SW slopes can
be associated with a lower loss of moisture that, in addition
to increased weathering activity (Churchill 1982) and a
greater deposition of materials, increases the volume of
water inside the alteration mantle. The explanation for a
signicant occurrence of landslides on the E-facing slopes
(Fig. 4b) might include the presence of areas of conver-
gence and divergence of ow above the breaking point,
such as ephemeral channels that can generate saturation
zones above the landslide scar (OLoughlin 1986).
Fig. 4 Histograms of the morphological parameters. The landslides
occurred on convex and rectilinear slopes with angles greater than 30
(a), with a westward orientation (b), and with altimetric elevations
between 200 and 600 m (c)
Table 2 Values of the physical and hydrological properties used to
simulate the scenarios for the basin
Scenarios 35 S1 S2 S
T/R [m/hr]
Min 46 68 159
Max 142 213 497
Cohesion
Min 0.07 0.06 0.15
Max 0.96 0.83 0.43
Friction angleU ()
Min 34 34 34
Max 39 39 39
Soil density (kg/m
3
) 1,710 1,350 1,330
Water density (kg/m
3
) 1,000 1,000 1,000
AS plot 1,000 1,000 1,000
Wetness (%) 20 20 20
Legend: T transmissivity, R constant recharge, S Scenarios
T. D. Nery, B. C. Vieira
1 3
Regarding hypsometric features (Fig. 4c), the landslides
were concentrated mostly between the altimetric elevations of
200 and 600 m on slopes with angles between 30 and 50 in
the areas of intermediate relief, as was also observed by
Gritzner et al. (2001). This higher concentration can be
associated with the development of a weathering mantle
covered by materials transported by rain that consequently
changedthe hydrological owinside these materials, resulting
in rupture (Dai and Lee 2002). Nevertheless, the high occur-
rence may instead be associated with the distribution of the
rainfall intensity along the landmass prole, which increased
in the direction of the plateau, where there was an increase in
the precipitation rate that could increase the soil moisture and
consequently reduce the stability forces in these slopes.
Stability index
The model predicted that 90 % of the landslides would
occur at sites classied as having predictive, unstable
conditions (Fig. 5). The results showed that in all three of
the scenarios, the classes of predictive unstable conditions
(lower threshold, upper threshold, and defended) had the
highest areal rates, thereby conferring a high susceptibility
to shallow landslides under conditions similar to those that
occurred in 1985 (Fig. 6).
The lower and upper threshold limits encompassed more
than 66 % of the basin, characterizing the basin as a region
with a high probability of landslides. Of the 216 recorded
landslides, the greatest number occurred in areas with
lower thresholds and rectilinear slopes.
The lower threshold class encompassed the highest
percentage of the area ([40 % for all three of the scenar-
ios) and the most landslides; however, the highest density
of landslides was associated with the upper threshold class
for all three of the scenarios. This trend was also observed
by Meisina and Scarabelli (2007) and Lopes et al. (2007),
who used the SINMAP model, and by Fernandes et al.
(2004), who used the similar SHALSTAB model. These
Fig. 5 Susceptibility maps for scenarios 1, 2 and 3
Susceptibility to shallow landslides
1 3
areas are mostly associated with slopes greater than 30,
which are represented by the middle and upper slopes of
the basin, as shown in the morphological parameter ana-
lysis with the different geotechnical materials that exhibit
different behaviors.
Conversely, the classes with predicted stable conditions
(stable, moderately stable, and quasi-stable) accounted for
less than 30 % of the total area. This value was lower than
that found by Pack et al. (1998) and Yilmaz and Keskin
(2009), who reported values of 66 % and 88 %, respec-
tively. Although they experienced few landslides, these
classes showed high levels of instability for slopes between
0 and 30.
The highest percentage (6.5 %) of landslides in the
predicted stable classes was observed in scenario 3. Most
of these disturbances occurred on slopes predisposed to
rupture, but due to the characteristics of the model cali-
bration, scenario 3 had the lowest probability of landslides.
Figure 7 illustrates the relationship among the landslide
points, the areas of contribution and the angles of the
slopes. The stability index lines dene the boundaries of
the regions included in this relationship (slope angle and
area of contribution), revealing the landslide points that
have potential stability and instability values.
For the slope angle, the landslides occurred between 20
and 50, conrming the values found by other authors (e.g.,
Pack et al. 1998; Lopes et al. 2007; Terhorst and Kreja
2009). For the contribution area, the greatest number of
landslides occurred under unsaturated conditions, similar to
the results found by Terhorst and Kreja (2009) in the
Swabian Alb region of Germany. However, in a region of
Hawaii, Deb and El-Kadi (2009) observed that the greatest
number of landslides occurred under saturated conditions.
According to Wolle and Hachich (1989), the main rupture
mechanisms in the Serra do Mar (Sao Paulo) are the loss of
soil suction and the decrease in apparent cohesion within
unsaturated soils. In the thick soils of the tropics, an
increased saturated hydraulic conductivity with depth may
establish a vertical downward ow.
The most sensitive parameter of this model was the T/R
ratio. Other authors, such as Meisina and Scarabelli (2007),
observed that cohesion played a more signicant role
regarding the percentage of stable and unstable areas. Con-
versely, Zaitchik et al. (2003) concluded that hydraulic
conductivity and friction angle were the most sensitive
parameters during the calibration of the model and that these
parameters were responsible for the susceptibility values.
Conclusions
The SINMAP model showed satisfactory results, predicting
approximately 90 % of the landslides that occurred in
January 1985, even though the geotechnical values of the
soil collected in the basin were not used in this study.
Therefore, this model, or even a similar one, is believed to
have great value for predicting shallow landslides in the
Serra do Mar, which is often affected by these processes,
annually causing numerous fatalities and substantial social
and environmental damage.
Because of the mathematical structure of the SINMAP
model and the generation for different scenarios of sus-
ceptibility maps that were validated using the scar maps of
the shallow landslides from 1985, it was possible to iden-
tify certain of the most important parameters in the initi-
ation of these types of disturbances in the Serra do Mar.
Fig. 6 Histograms showing the areal percentage and the number of
landslides (bold square) for each stability index class. The lower
threshold class presented the highest percentage of area in all of the
scenarios. In scenario 3 (soil depth of 3.5 m), landslides were
identied in areas with a low probability of such occurrences. St
stable, MS moderately stable, QS quasi-stable, LT lower threshold, UT
upper threshold, Unst unstable
T. D. Nery, B. C. Vieira
1 3
Currently, other mathematical models based on physical
information are being used in the Serra do Mar. In future
studies, in addition to using these models, we intend to collect
geotechnical and hydrological parameters, especially those
that are sensitive for determining the percentage of unstable
areas, to improve the accuracy of the susceptibility maps.
Fig. 7 Slope area (SA) plots for
scenarios 1 (a), 2 (b), and 3
(c) illustrating the relationship
among the landslide point,
catchment area and slope angle.
The stability index lines dene
the boundaries of the regions.
For scenarios 1 and 2, the
landslides were concentrated
starting at a slope angle of 20,
and for scenario 3, the
landslides were concentrated at
30. In all of the scenarios, the
landslides occurred in
unsaturated areas, and the areas
with lower thresholds were
more susceptible and
experienced more landslides
Susceptibility to shallow landslides
1 3
Acknowledgments The authors acknowledge the support of the Sao
Paulo Research Foundation (Fundacao de Amparo a` Pesquisa do
Estado de Sao PauloFAPESP) for the development of this study
and the granting of a Masters thesis. The authors also thank Eymar
Silva Sampaio Lopes, Paulina Setti Riedel, Antonio Carlos Colan-
gelo, Emerson Galvani, and all of the members of the research group
for their contributions and scientic discussions. This manuscript was
signicantly improved by the contributions made by anonymous
reviewers.
References
Amaral Junior AF (2007) Mapeamento geotecnico aplicado a analise
de processos de movimentos de massa gravitacionais: Costa
Verde-RJ [Geotechnical mapping applied to analyze the pro-
cesses of gravitational mass movements: Costa Verde-RJ]Scale
1:10.000. Dissertation, Universidade de Sao Paulo
Baum RL, Savage WZ, Godt JW (2002) TRIGRSa FORTRAN
program for transient rainfall inltration and grid-based regional
slope-stability analysis. USGS, Denver
Bogaart PW, Troch P (2006) A curvature distribution within hill
slopes and catchments and its effect on the hydrological
response. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 3:10711104. doi:10.5194/
hess-10-925-2006
Churchill RR (1982) Aspect-induced differences in hillslope pro-
cesses. Earth Surf Proc Land 7:171182.
Costa Nunes AJ (1969) Landslides in soils of decomposed rock due to
intense rainstorms. 7th Int. Conf. Soil Mech. Found. Eng.
ISSMFE, London, pp 547554
Dai FC, Lee CF (2002) Landslide characteristics and slope instability
modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphol-
ogy 42:213228. doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00087-3
De Ploey J, Cruz O (1979) Landslides in Serra do Mar, Brazil. Catena
6:111122. doi:10.1016/0341-8162(79)90001-8
Deb SK, El-Kadi AI (2009) Susceptibility assessment of shallow
landslides on Oahu, Hawaii, under extreme-rainfall events. Geo-
morphology 108:219233. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.01.009
Fernandes NF, Guimaraes RF, Gomes RAT, Vieira BC, Montgomery
DR, Greenberg H (2004) Topographic controls of landslides in
Rio de Janeiro: eld, evidence and modeling. Catena
55:163181. doi:10.1016/S0341-8162(03)00115-2
Gao J, Maro J (2009) Topographic controls on evolution of shallow
landslides in pastoral Wairarapa, New Zealand, 19792003.
Geomorphology 114:373381. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.08.
002
Gomes RAT, Guimaraes RF, Carvalho AO Jr, Fernandes NF, Vargas
EA Jr, Martins EA (2008) Identication of the affected areas by
mass movement through a physically based model of landslide
hazard combined with an empirical model of debris ow. Nat
Hazards 45:197209. doi:10.1007/s11069-007-9160-z
Gritzner ML, Andrew Marcus W, Aspinall R, Custer SG (2001)
Assessing landslide potential using GIS, soil wetness modeling
and topographic attributes, Payette River, Idaho. Geomorphol-
ogy 37:149165. doi:10.1016/S0169-555x(00)00068-4
Guimaraes RF, Fernandes NF, Gomes RAT, Greenberg HM, Mont-
gomery DR, Carvalho Junior OA (2003) Parameterization of soil
parameters for a model of the topographic controls on shallow
landsliding. Eng Geol 69:99108. doi:10.1016/S0013-7952(02)
00263-6
Lacerda WA (2007) Landslide initiation in saprolite and colluvium in
southern Brazil: eld and laboratory observations. Geomorphol-
ogy 87:104119. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2006.03.037
Listo FLR, Vieira BC (2012) Mapping of risk and susceptibility of
shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Geomorphol-
ogy 169170:3044. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.01.010
Lopes ESS, Riedel PS, Bentz CM, Ferreira MV (2007) Calibracao e
validacao do ndice de estabilidade de encostas com inventario
de escorregamentos naturais na bacia do rio da Onca, na regiao
da Serra de Cubatao, SP [Calibration and validation of the
stability index of slopes with records of natural landslides in the
Onca river basin, located in the Serra de Cubatao, SP].
Geociencias 26:8395
Meisina C, Scarabelli S (2007) A comparative analysis of terrain
stability models for predicting shallow landslides in colluvial
soils. Geomorphology 87:207223. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.
2006.03.039
Mendes RM (2008) Estudos das propriedades geotecnicas de solos
residuais nao saturados de Ubatuba (SP) [Studies of the
geotechnical properties of unsaturated residual soils in Ubatuba
(SP)]. Dissertation, Universidade de Sao Paulo
Montgomery DR, Dietrich WE (1994) A physically based model for
the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resour
Res 30:11531171
OLoughlin EM (1986) Prediction of surface saturation zones in
natural catchments by topographic analysis. Water Resour Res
22:794804.
Pack RT, Tarboton DG, Goodwin CN (1998) SINMAPa stability
index approach to terrain stability hazard mapping. Users
manual. Terratech Consulting Ltd, Salmon Arm
Reneau SL, Dietrich WE (1987) Size and location of colluvial
landslides in a steep forested landscape. Erosion and sedimen-
tation in the pacic rim (Proceedings of the Corvallis Sympo-
sium, August, 1987). IAHS Publication 165:3948
Terhorst B, Kreja R (2009) Slope stability modeling with SINMAP in
a settlement area of the Swabian Alb. Landslides 6:309319.
doi:10.100/s10346-009-0167-2
Vargas E Jr, Oliveira ARB, Costa Filho LM, Campos TP (1986) A
study of the relationship between the stability of slopes in residual
soils and rain intensity. International symposium on environ-
mental geotechnology. Eno Publishing, Leigh, pp 491500
Vieira BC, Fernandes NF, Filho OA (2010) Shallow landslide
prediction in the Serra do Mar, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Nat Hazards
Earth Syst Sci 10:18291837. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1829-2010
Wolle CM, Carvalho CS (1994) Taludes naturais [Natural slopes]. In:
Falconi FF, Junior AN (eds) Solos do Litoral de Sao Paulo [soils
fromthe coast of Sao Paulo State]. ABMS, Sao Paulo, pp 180203
Wolle CM, Hachich W (1989) Rain-induced landslides in south-
eastern Brazil. In: Proceedings 12th Int. Conf. on Soil Mech. and
Found. Eng., Rio de Janeiro, vol 3. pp 16391644
Wu W, Sidle RC (1995) A distributed slope stability model for steep
forested basins. Water Resour Res 31:20972110. doi:10.1029/
95WR01136
Yilmaz I, Keskin I (2009) GIS based statistical and physical
approaches to landslide susceptibility mapping (Sebinkarahisar,
Turkey). Bull Eng Geol Environ 68:459471. doi:10.1007/
s10064-009-0188-z
Zaitchik BF, Van ESHM, Sullivan PJ (2003) Modeling slope stability
in Honduras: parameter sensitivity and scale of aggregation. Soil
Sci Soc Am J 67:268278. doi:10.2136/sssaj2003.2680
T. D. Nery, B. C. Vieira
1 3