The 2008-2009 recession was long and deep, and called the most severe economic contraction since

the
1930s (but still much less severe than the Great Depression).
When the fall of economic activity finally bottomed out in the second half of 2009, real gross domestic
product (GDP) had decreased by approximately 5.1%, or by about $680 billion. At this point the output
gap (the difference between what the economy could produce and what it actually produced) widened to
an estimated 8.1%. The decline in economic activity was much sharper than in the 10 previous post-war
recessions, in which the fall of real GDP averaged about 2.0% and the output gap increased to near 4.0%
(see Figure 1). However, the decline falls well short of the experience during the Great Depression, when
real GDP decreased by 30% and the output gap probably exceeded 40%.


The U.S. economy, as measured by real GDP growth (i.e., GDP adjusted for inflation) began to recover in
mid-2009. However, the pace of growth over the next 3% years was slow and uneven. From the second half
of 2009 and through 2010 real GDP increased at an annualized rate of 2.5%. Compared with the early stage
of previous post-war economic recoveries, this is a relatively slow pace and much of the economys upward
momentum at this time was sustained by the transitory factors of inventory increases and fiscal stimulus.
Therefore, sustainable recovery would depend on more enduring sources of demand such spending by
consumers and businesses reviving to give continued momentum to the recovery. To a degree, this
occurred, but the momentum provided has been lackluster, with the pace of growth decelerating to a
1.8% annualized rate, and the output gap remains sizable (see Figure 2), prompting recurring concerns
about the recoverys sustainability.


While business investment spending has been relatively strong during the recovery, consumer spending,
typically accounting for two-thirds of final demand, has been relatively weak. Moreover, in 2011-2012, the
sharply fading effects of fiscal stimulus and weaker growth in Europe have likely dampened economic
growth. Nonetheless, economic activity in the private economy shows signs of slow but steady
improvement.
Credit conditions have improved, making getting loans easier for consumers and businesses,
loosening a constraint on many types of credit supported expenditures. The Feds January
2013 survey of senior loan officers indicated that, on net, bank lending standards and terms
continued to ease during the previous three months and that the demand for commercial and
industrial loans had increased.
The stock market has rebounded and interest rate spreads on corporate bonds have narrowed.
The Dow Jones stock index, which had plunged to near 6500 in March 2009, by early 2013
had regained all of its lost capitalization. Spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds, a
measure of the lenders perception of risk and creditworthiness of borrowers, have fallen
from a high of 600 basis points in December 2008 to near 25 basis points in early 2013.
Manufacturing activity has shown steady improvement during the recovery. Through
February 2013, output had increased 2.0% over a year earlier. Capacity utilization has risen
from a low of 64% in mid-2009 to 78.3% in February 2013. (A capacity utilization rate of
80%-85% would be typical for a fully recovered economy.)
From mid-2009 through February 2013, non-farm payroll employment has increased by
about 4 million jobs. Monthly gains have been consistently positive since late 2010, but as
evidenced by a weak gain of only 88,000 jobs in March 2013, often not at a scale
characteristic of a strong recovery. However, for the 12 months ending in March 2013,
monthly employment gains have increased; averaging about 160,000 jobs (see Figure 3).
The housing sector has recently shown evidence of improving health. Private new housing
starts pushed above 900,000 in December 2012, most recently increasing at an annual rate of
917,000 units in February 2013, up from less than
units during the recession (see Figure 4). Also, house prices have begun to increase, on average, up
about 8% over 12 months ending January 2013.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 3. Monthly Employment Net Gain or Loss

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Shaded areas indicate US recessions.
2013 research.stlouisfed.org

On the other hand, growth is well below the historical norm for U.S. economic recoveries as persistent
sources of economic weakness continue to dampen economic activity.
Pointing to the slow pace of real GDP growth over 3% years of recovery, the output gap had
narrowed to only 5.8% of real GDP (see Figure 2).
Consumer spending, the usual engine of a strong economic recovery, remains tepid, generally
slowed by households ongoing need to rebuild substantial net worth lost during the recession,
continued high unemployment and underemployment, and a surge in energy prices in the first
half of 2012.
Employment conditions, despite improvement, remain weak. The unemployment rate, which
had peaked at 10.0% in October 2009, has edged down to 7.6% in March 2013, but is still
high for this stage of the economic recovery (see Figure 5). A considerable share of the
improvement in the unemployment rate is not the result of workers finding jobs, but by
discouraged workers leaving the ranks of the officially unemployed by leaving the labor force.
The employment to population ratio, which is not affected by changes in labor force
participation, has remained near its recession low through three years of economic recovery
(see Figure 6). This suggests a labor market that, at best, is only treading water.
The housing market, although showing signs of revival, is likely to continue to fall short of its
typical contribution to economic recoveries. Although the value of households financial
Figure 4. Housing Starts

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau.
assets have bounced back since 2009, the value of their real estate assets have not, continuing
to dampen consumer spending.
Growth in the UK and the Euro area has been weak and fiscal austerity measures to stem the
growth of public debt have likely pushed the region back into recession, slowing growth
further. Slower growth in this region, a major U.S. export market, has likely transmitted a
contractionary impulse to the United States, slowing the pace of the U.S. recovery in 2012
and will likely continue to do so into 2013.
Fiscal policy has tightened significantly since 2010, with federal government
expenditures contracting 2.8% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012, and exerting a dampening
effect on economic growth. The current budget debate points to more fiscal tightening in
2013.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 5. Unemployment Rate

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Shaded areas indicate US recessions.
2013 research.stlouisfed.org

Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics.





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tng trng. C th, t l tht nghip M gn y gim t 10% cui nm 2009, xung cn 7,2% vo
qu III/2013; th trng bt ng sn phc hi v n nh Chnh ph M c bit quan tm n li sut
v a ra mt s chnh sch ti u phc hi kinh t M thot khi khng hong.Kt qu trn c c
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ng t c nhng mc ch c bit- nh kim ch lm pht, duy tr n nh t gi hi oi, t
c ton dng lao ng hay tng trng kinh t. Chnh sch lu thng tin t bao gm vic thay i
Figure 6. Employment Population Ratio

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Shaded areas indicate US recessions.
2013 research.stlouisfed.org
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