Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Climategate Exerpts
Climategate Exerpts
org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_emails%2C_data%2C_models%2C_1996-2009
climactic-research-unit-foi-leaked-data(wikileaks)\FOIA\documents\osborn-
tree6\mann\abdlowfreq2grid.pro(13):
There is some
; ambiguity during the modern period here, however, because the corrected
; version has already been artificially adjusted to reproduce the largest
; scales of observed temperature over recent decades - so a new adjustment
; would be unwelcome. Therefore, the adjustment term is scaled back towards
; zero when being applied to the corrected data set, so that it is linearly
; interpolated from its 1950 value to zero at 1970 and kept at zero thereafter.
climactic-research-unit-foi-leaked-data(wikileaks)\FOIA\documents\osborn-
tree6\mann\mxdgrid2ascii.pro(103): printf,1,
documents\harris-tree\recon_esper.pro:
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,
; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series.
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
1
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline
;
climactic-research-unit-foi-leaked-data(wikileaks)\FOIA\documents\harris-
tree\recon_overpeck.pro(2): ;
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass MEAN timeseries of MXD
; anomalies against full NH temperatures.
; THIS IS FOR THE OVERPECK CIRCUM-ARCTIC RECORD
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
; *** Complicated because Overpeck record is five-yr-means only ***
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid
; the decline
climactic-research-unit-foi-leaked-data(wikileaks)\FOIA\documents\osborn-
tree6\mann\oldprog\maps1.pro(5): ;
briff_sep98_e.pro:
;
; PLOTS ‘ALL’ REGION MXD timeseries from age banded and from hugershoff
; standardised datasets.
; Reads Harry’s regional timeseries and outputs the 1600-1992 portion
; with missing values set appropriately. Uses mxd, and just the
; “all band” timeseries
;****** APPLIES A VERY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION FOR DECLINE*********
from README_GRIDDING.TXT..
“Use dist to specify the correlation decay distance for the climate
variable being interpolated – necessary information to determine where to add dummy or synthetic
data.”
"I've just completed Mike's Nature [the science journal] trick of adding in the real temps to each series
for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's [size=4]to hide the
decline."[/size]
1177423054.txt
From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>
To: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
Subject: Re: FYI
Date: Tue, 24 Apr 2007 09:57:34 -0700
The bottom line here is that observational data are frequently "messy".
They are not the neat, tidy beasts Mr. Keenan would like them to be.
2
This holds not only for surface temperature measurements. It also holds
- in spades - for measurements of tropospheric temperature from MSU and
radiosondes, and for measurements of ocean temperatures from XBTs,
profiling floats, etc. We would like observing systems to be more
accurate, more stable, and better-suited for monitoring decadal-scale
changes in climate. You and Kevin and many other are actively working
towards that goal. The key message here is that, despite uncertainties
in the surface temperature record - uncertainties which you and others
in the field are well aware of, and have worked hard to quantify - it is
now unequivocal that surface temperatures have warmed markedly over the
past 100 years. Uncertainties in the station histories do not negate
this basic message.
1255352257.txt
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@ucar.edu>
To: Michael Mann <mann@meteo.psu.edu>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@stanford.edu>, Myles Allen <allen@atm.ox.ac.uk>, peter stott
<peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>, "Philip D. Jones" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, Benjamin Santer
<santer1@llnl.gov>, Tom Wigley <wigley@ucar.edu>, Thomas R Karl
<Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov>, James Hansen
<jhansen@giss.nasa.gov>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@Princeton.EDU>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in
Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We
had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it
smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a
record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies
baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing
weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global
energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27,
doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained
from the author.)
The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008
shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing
system is inadequate.
That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on a
monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the
change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn't decadal. The PDO is already reversing with
the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time since
Sept 2007. see
[2]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_c
urrent.ppt
Kevin
Michael Mann wrote:
extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. its particularly odd,
since climate is usually Richard Black's beat at BBC (and he does a great job). from
what I can tell, this guy was formerly a weather person at the Met Office.
We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might be appropriate for
the Met Office to have a say about this, I might ask Richard Black what's up here?
3
mike
1255352257.txt
From: "Narasimha D. Rao" <[3]ndrao@stanford.edu>
To: "Stephen H Schneider" <[4]shs@stanford.edu>
Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific
Subject: BBC U-turn on climate
Steve,
You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBC's reporter on climate change, on Friday
wrote that there's been no warming since 1998, and that pacific oscillations will force
cooling for the next 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as are
other skeptics' views.
[5]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
[6]http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-cl
imate-change/
Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist?
Narasimha
……Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category,
and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather
than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be
nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”[ Medieval Warm Period], even if we don’t yet have a
hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back….
mann/oldprog/hovmueller_lon:
; Plots a HovMueller diagram (longitude-time) of meridionally averaged
; growing season reconstructions. Uses "corrected" MXD - but shouldn't usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.
mann/oldprog/calibrate_correctmxd:
; We have previously (calibrate_mxd.pro) calibrated the high-pass filtered
; MXD over 1911-1990, applied the calibration to unfiltered MXD data (which
; gives a zero mean over 1881-1960) after extending the calibration to boxes
; without temperature data (pl_calibmxd1.pro). We have identified and
; artificially removed (i.e. corrected) the decline in this calibrated
; data set. We now recalibrate this corrected calibrated dataset against
4
; the unfiltered 1911-1990 temperature data, and apply the same calibration
; to the corrected and uncorrected calibrated MXD data.
frs_gts_anom.PRO:
tmn(nland)=(tmpgrd(nland)-(0.5*dtrgrd(nland)))/10.0
frssyn(nland)=frssyn(nland)+frscal(tmn(nland))
endfor
frssyn(nland)=frssyn(nland)/(nor2-nor1+1)
mann/abdlowfreq2grid:
; HUGREG=Hugershoff regions, ABDREG=age-banded regions, HUGGRID=Hugershoff grid
; The calibrated (uncorrected) versions of all these data sets are used.
; However, the same adjustment is then applied to the corrected version of
; the grid Hugershoff data, so that both uncorrected and corrected versions
; are available with the appropriate low frequency variability. There is some
; ambiguity during the modern period here, however, because the corrected
; version has already been artificially adjusted to reproduce the largest
; scales of observed temperature over recent decades - so a new adjustment
; would be unwelcome. Therefore, the adjustment term is scaled back towards
; zero when being applied to the corrected data set, so that it is linearly
; interpolated from its 1950 value to zero at 1970 and kept at zero thereafter.
mann/mxd_eof_rotate:
;
; Computes EOFs of infilled calibrated MXD gridded dataset.
; Can use corrected or uncorrected MXD data (i.e., corrected for the decline).
; Do not usually rotate, since this loses the common volcanic and global
; warming signal, and results in regional-mean series instead.
; Generally use the correlation matrix EOFs.
5
mann/mxd_pcr_localtemp:
;
; Tries to reconstruct Apr-Sep temperatures, on a box-by-box basis, from the
; EOFs of the MXD data set. This is PCR, although PCs are used as predictors
; but not as predictands. This PCR-infilling must be done for a number of
; periods, with different EOFs for each period (due to different spatial
; coverage). *BUT* don't do special PCR for the modern period (post-1976),
; since they won't be used due to the decline/correction problem.
; Certain boxes that appear to reconstruct well are "manually" removed because
; they are isolated and away from any trees.
HARRY_READ_ME.txt
So, we can have a proper result, but only by including a load of garbage! In fact,
I might print out this cell as an example. Let's see:
Hmm.. also tried just removing duplicate strings (rather than whole cells):
This 'looks' better - not so steep, and the intercept is a shade closer to 0. The
Matlab script plotcld.m allows comparison of scatter diagrams, these are fed from
example data files manually extracted from the cloudreg.log file after varying the
duplicate limit and/or strategy.
Showed Phil - and now sidetracked into producing global mean series from the 3.0
parameters (DTR first).
OK, got cloud working, have to generate it now.. but distracted by starting on the
mythical 'Update' program. As usual, it's much more complicated than it seems. So,
let's work out the order of events.
May 2007 e-mail from Phil Jones that Ben Santer is replying to in 1178107838.txt. Jones says:
HARRY_READ_ME.txt
6
“This whole project is SUCH A MESS. No wonder I needed therapy!!”
Found in calibrate_mxd.pro:
;
; Calibrates the gridded and infilled MXD data against instrumental
; summer temperatures (land&sea). On a grid-box basis first, using the
; period 1911-1990 for calibration and the period 1856-1910 for verification,
; where data is available.
;
; Due to the decline, all time series are first high-pass filter with a
; 40-yr filter, although the calibration equation is then applied to raw
; data
data4alps.pro,70
printf,1,'IMPORTANT NOTE:'
printf,1,'The data after 1960 should not be used. The tree-ring density'
printf,1,'records tend to show a decline after 1960 relative to the summer'
printf,1,'temperature in many high-latitude locations. In this data set'
printf,1,'this "decline" has been artificially removed in an ad-hoc way, and'
printf,1,'this means that data after 1960 no longer represent tree-ring
printf,1,'density variations, but have been modified to look more like the
printf,1,'observed temperatures.'
;
Mike,
We'll differ a bit on a few points, but let's wipe the slate
clean and get back to improving our estimates of past changes
over the last millennium.
I must admit to having little regard for the Web. Living over
here makes that easier than in the US - but I would ignore the
so-called skeptics until they get to the peer-review arena. I know
this is harder for you in the US and it might become harder still
at your new location. I guess it shows though that what we are
doing in important. The skeptics are fighting a losing battle.
Cheers
Phil
Mike,
Only have it in the pdf form. FYI ONLY - don't pass on. Relevant paras are the last
2 in section 4 on p13. As I said it is worded carefully due to Adrian knowing Eugenia
for years. He knows the're wrong, but he succumbed to her almost pleading with him
to tone it down as it might affect her proposals in the future !
I didn't say any of this, so be careful how you use it - if at all. Keep quiet also
that you have the pdf.
The attachment is a very good paper - I've been pushing Adrian over the last weeks
to get it submitted to JGR or J. Climate. The main results are great for CRU and also
for ERA-40. The basic message is clear - you have to put enough surface and sonde
obs into a model to produce Reanalyses. The jumps when the data input change stand
out so clearly. NCEP does many odd things also around sea ice and over snow and ice.
The other paper by MM is just garbage - as you knew. De Freitas again. Pielke is also
losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as well - frequently as I see
it.
I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep
them
out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !
Cheers
Phil
Mike,
For your interest, there is an ECMWF ERA-40 Report coming out soon, which
shows that Kalnay and Cai are wrong. It isn't that strongly worded as the first author
is a personal friend of Eugenia. The result is rather hidden in the middle of the report.
It isn't peer review, but a slimmed down version will go to a journal. KC are wrong
because
the difference between NCEP and real surface temps (CRU) over eastern N. America doesn't
happen with ERA-40. ERA-40 assimilates surface temps (which NCEP didn't) and doing
this makes the agreement with CRU better. Also ERA-40's trends in the lower atmosphere
are all physically consistent where NCEP's are not - over eastern US.
I can send if you want, but it won't be out as a report for a couple of months.
Cheers
Phil
I looked at some of the stuff on the Climate Audit web site. I'd really
like to talk to a few of these "Auditors" in a dark alley. They seem to
have no understanding of how science is actually done - no appreciation
of the fact that uncertainty is an integral part of what we do. Once
again, just let me know how I can help....
1075403821.txt
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: mann@virginia.edu
Subject: Fwd: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu Jan 29 14:17:01 2004
Mike,
In an odd way this is cheering news ! One other thing about the CC paper - just found
another email - is that McKittrick says it is standard practice in Econometrics journals
to give all the data and codes !! According to legal advice IPR overrides this.
Cheers
Phil
"It is with deep sadness that the Daly Family have to announce the sudden death of John
Daly.Condolences may be sent to John's email account (daly@john-daly.com)
"
Reported with great sadness
Timo Hämeranta
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Moderator: timohame@yahoo.co.uk
Private: timo.hameranta@pp.inet.fi
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
References
1. http://personal.inet.fi/koti/hameranta/climate.htm
2. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/climatesceptics
We probably need to say more about this. Land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming
— and skeptics might claim that this proves that urban warming is real and important.
Comments?
Tom
thanks David - lets see what others think. I agree, that we don’t want to be seen as being too clever or
defensive. Note however, that all the TAR said was “likely” the warmest in the last 1000 years. Our
chapter and figs (including 6.10) make it clear that it is unlikely any multi-decadal period was as warm
as the last 50 years. But, that said, I do feel your are right that our team would not have said what the
TAR said about 1998, and thus, we should delete that second sentence.
jones-foiathoughts.doc
guys, I see that Science has already gone online w/ the new issue, so we put up the RC post. By now,
you’ve probably read that nasty McIntyre thing. Apparently, he violated the embargo on his website (I
don’t go there personally, but so I’m informed).
Anyway, I wanted you guys to know that you’re free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful.
Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through, and we’ll be very careful
to answer any questions that come up to any extent we can. On the other hand, you might want to visit
the thread and post replies yourself. We can hold
comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened
through or not, and if so, any comments you’d like us to include.
You’re also welcome to do a followup guest post, etc. think of RC as a resource that is at your disposal
to combat any disinformation put forward by the McIntyres of the world. Just let us know. We’ll use our
best discretion to make sure the skeptics dont’get to use the RC comments as a megaphone…
1255100876.txt
From: Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>
To: P.Jones@uea.ac.uk
Subject: Re: CEI formal petition to derail EPA GHG endangerment finding with charge that
destruction of CRU raw data undermines integrity of global temperature record
Date: Fri, 09 Oct 2009 11:07:56 -0700
11
Reply-to: santer1@llnl.gov
<x-flowed>
Dear Phil,
I've known Rick Piltz for many years. He's a good guy. I believe he used
to work with Mike MacCracken at the U.S. Global Change Research Program.
I'm really sorry that you have to go through all this stuff, Phil. Next
time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I'll be tempted to beat
the crap out of him. Very tempted.
I'll help you to deal with Michaels and the CEI in any way that I can.
The only reason these guys are going after you is because your work is
of crucial importance - it changed the way the world thinks about human
effects on climate. Your work mattered in the 1980s, and it matters now.
Ben
1255095172.txt
Rick Piltz wrote:
> Gentlemen--
>
> I expect that you have already been made aware of the petition to EPA
> from the Competitive Enterprise Institute (and Pat Michaels) calling for
> a re-opening of public comment on EPA's prospective "endangerment"
> finding on greenhouse gases. CEI is charging that the CRU at East Anglia
> has destroyed the raw data for a portion of the global temperature
> record, thus destroying the integrity of the IPCC assessments and any
> other work that treats the UK Jones-Wigley global temperature data
> record as scientifically legitimate. I have attached the petition in
> PDF, with a statements by CEI and Michaels.
>
> The story was reported in Environment & Energy Daily yesterday (below).
> They called me for it, presumably because I am on their call list as
> someone who gets in the face of the global warming disinformation
> campaign, among other things. I hit CEI, but I don't have a technical
> response to their allegations.
OTHER:
13